本文討論焦點在於台灣政黨體系的變遷過程，影響台灣政黨體系變遷的因素，以及台灣政黨體系未來的可能走向。分別使用社會分歧理論、政治菁英理論以及制度論來解釋台灣政黨體系的變遷過程，並由各政黨在選舉結果的消長與選民政黨認同的變化兩個指標來觀察我國政黨體系的變遷。試圖建構一個通用的模式來解釋我國政黨體系發展的過程，以預期台灣政黨體系發展的未來走向。 經過全面觀察各政黨選舉結果的消長，以及選民政黨認同的變動情形之後，本文發現台灣政黨體系的變遷，主要發生在四個重要的時間點，第一個時間點是1986年民進黨的成立，第二個時間點是1993年新黨的成立，第三個時間點是2000年親民黨的成立與2001年台聯的成立，第四個時間點則是立委選制改變後的2008年立委選舉。 在變動的因素方面，雖然每一個變遷的時間點都有新政黨的出現，但是民進黨的出現是整個憲政環境由威權時期轉成民主化的結果，而新黨、親民黨與台聯則都是政治菁英之間的分裂。2008年主要是選舉制度的影響，不但新成立的政黨無法生存，連原有的小黨也都消失無蹤。 在穩定不變的因素方面，在台灣的政黨體系整個變遷的過程裡面，藍綠的區分一直都存在著。在藍綠對抗的主軸之下，台灣的政黨體系受到省籍、統獨立場以及國家認同等因素混合在內的分歧結構的長期影響，泛綠基本上掌握三成左右的基本盤，泛藍則是有四成出頭的支持度，中間還有二成多搖擺不定的部分，這個部分就是藍綠角逐的關鍵所在。這個藍綠對抗中第一個最重要的因素就是混雜了統獨立場、國家認同與省籍在內的社會與議題分歧，其次是政治菁英在歷次選舉過程中不斷地去操作這個分歧結構，藉此找到新政黨在意識型態光譜上的定位點，再加上SNTV選制容許小黨有生存空間，因此台灣的政黨體系隨之產生變遷。最後到了2008年，選舉制度的變革發揮了決定性的影響，使得我國的政黨體系確立為兩黨制。 在未來的發展趨勢上，研究發現，無論就政黨得票率、政黨支持度以及選舉制度的層面來看，國民黨似乎已經逐漸取回過半的優勢，民進黨則回到四成左右的基本盤。在沒有新議題或是新的政治社會分歧足以重新切割現有政黨體系之下，在目前雙首長制的憲政架構以及單一選區兩票制的國會選舉制度之下，我們預期政治菁英們的互動將朝向由國民黨代表泛藍勢力，民進黨代表泛綠勢力的兩黨政治體系逐步鞏固的方向前進。 / The main theme of this thesis focuses on the changing process of Taiwan’s party system, the factors which effecting the changing process of Taiwan’s party system, and the trend of Taiwan’s party system in the future. The author use social cleavage theory、political elite theory and institutional theory to explain the changing process of Taiwan’s party system. The author also uses two indexes including the vote-share of each party in every election, and the changing of voter’s party identification to observe the changing of Taiwan’s party system. This thesis tries to build a general model to explain the developing process of Taiwan’s party system and predict the future trend of Taiwan’s party system. After observing the election outcomes of each party and the changing of voter’s party identification, this thesis points out four important time points of Taiwan’s party system changing. The first time point is the presence of DPP in 1986, the second time point is the presence of NP in 1993, the third time point is the presence of PFP in 2000 and the presence of TSU in 2001, the fourth time point is the changing of electoral rule of legislative election in 2008. About the changing factor, in spite of the new party presence in each changing time point, the presence of DPP is due to the constitutional environment which the authoritarian regime transferred into democracy. The presence of NP、PFP and TSU are the outcome of the separation of political elites. The changing of party system in 2008 is mainly effected by electoral system, not only the new parties can’t survive, but the existing small parties also disappear. About the stable factor, during the changing process of Taiwan’s party system, there’s always a clearly distinction between “blue” and ”green”. Underneath the main stream of the confrontation between “blue” and “green”, Taiwan’s party system has long been effected by the cleavage structure which mixed with ethnic origin、unification or independent with china and national identity. The pan-green group basically maintains about 30% of vote share, the pan-blue group has more than 40% of vote share, the remaining 20% more of vote share is the key point for the struggle of pan-green and pan-blue forces. The most important factor in this confrontation process is the social and issue cleavage mixed with ethnic origin、unification or independent with china and national identity. Meanwhile the political elites are consequently manipulating the cleavage structure in every election process, in order to find some spaces in the ideological spectrum to form new parties. In addition to the SNTV electoral system allows small parties to appear and survive. That’s the reason why Taiwan’s party system changes over time. But in 2008, the changing of electoral system has the decisive influence and turn Taiwan’s party system into the two-party system. In the trend of future development, the research shows that, no matter in party’s vote share、party support rate or electoral system, KMT seems gradually having a leading advantage to get more than 50% of vote share. DPP has about 40% of vote share. If no more new issue or political-social cleavages to cut the existing party system, in the two-head executive constitutional structure and MMM electoral system, the interactions of political elites will tend to a consolidation of the two-party system which including a pan-blue force presented by KMT, and a pan-green force presented by DPP.

台灣地區在2010年的行政區域調整中，有三個區域進行縣市合併，合併後的縣市其選區必須重新劃分，而進行劃分時有三個因素可以做為縣市合併後衍生之選區劃分原則，分別是縣市融合、大市效應與優勢現象。這三個因素在以往的選區劃分中甚少被提及，因此本論文特別討論考慮這三個因素的選區劃分。 由於大市效應或優勢現象產生的原因是單一選區中有太多的選舉人口來自縣市合併前的同一行政區，因此我們在劃分前處理中，先對人口過多的行政區進行分割，然後進行選區劃分。為促進縣市融合，我們優先考慮將原縣市交界區域的行政區域劃分至選區，然後才考慮非交界區的行政區域。劃分的過程中，我們參考最多限制優先的原則，透過貪婪演算法進行劃分，劃分結束後再進行選區調整，以求能滿足中選會對選區人口數等相關的規定。 我們在論文中提出了選區評估的指標，可以對縣市融合、大市效應與優勢現象進行衡量與評估，以便作為劃分結果的比較與參考。 最後我們透過對合併後的高雄縣市進行選區劃分，以說明我們整體的概念與方法。根據我們的劃分原則與方法，我們的劃分結果產生6個縣市融合的選區，而中選會所公布的選區劃分結果，沒有任何符合縣市融合精神的選區。同時，相較於中選會的結果，我們的劃分方式有較好的大市效應指標與優勢現象指標。 / During the administrative district adjustment of Taiwan in 2010, three regions conducted the city and county merges. The electoral districts must be redistricted after these merges. There are new issues, related to the merge of city and county, which have seldom being discussed before, namely, the city-county integration, the overpopulation-region effect, and the dominance phenomenon. In this thesis, we will consider these issues as the new principles to be included in electoral districting. The reason that causes overpopulation-region effect or dominance phenomenon is due to too much of population comes from the same administrative district in the city of county prior to the merge. One could avoid these by dividing the overpopulation borough before carrying out the electoral districting. In order to promote the city and county integration, we give priority to these administrative districts on the junction regions of the original city and county configurations before considering the administrative districts on the non-junction regions. The most constraint principles and greedy algorithms are employed in the actual electoral districting processes. After the first districting, we conduct a region adjustment to comply with the regulations of the Central Election Commission (CEC). We also proposed the assessment indices that can be used to evaluate the possible effects due to the city-county integration, the overpopulation-region effect, and the dominance phenomenon. Using these indices, one can compare the results of various districting outcomes. Finally, we illustrated our idea and methods by actually districting the merged region of Kaohsiung city and county. According to our mechanism, we produced six city-county integrated electoral districts where no city-county integrated electoral district was found in the CEC’s districting results. In addition, the districting results produced by our method have better overpopulation-region effect index and better dominance phenomenon index than that announced by CEC.

Despite the benefits of antiretroviral therapy in treating HIV/AIDS, government responses have varied substantially, from provisions guaranteeing nearly universal access to insufficient provisions providing almost no access. This research seeks to specifically examine primary explanations, such as economic capacity, and emerging explanations, such as the role of electoral accountability and the presence of stigma, and the coordination between the epistemic community and political leadership as potential causes for the variance in the government provision. By controlling for state economic capacity, this research furthers the importance of examining other explanations for state response in light of a public health crisis. While electoral accountability and the role of stigma had marginal impacts, the level of scientific coordination and understanding among the states political leadership had perceptible impacts. This research also tests broader aspects of the political economy such as the role of state capacity and subsequent government crisis response.

自1990年代中起國大陸經濟發展欣欣向榮之際，城市治理議題則圍繞在國家如何平抑發展中可能的基層動亂。本研究選取中國大陸經濟發展前沿城市的上海基層社區--居民委員會選舉作為觀察主題，直接選舉的推動是否會影響社區政治中黨國的單一獨斷？學習效果(learning effects)的理論預設是，隨著選舉演練次數和民眾政治參與的增加，會引發「批判公民」(critical citizens)意識的興起。這樣的理論預設是否能在上海基層選舉中看到？ 本研究觀察2003年到2012年的居委會換屆選舉。發現近年來，社區民眾對黨國的挑戰並未因為選舉限制的不斷增強而退卻，反之，民眾會利用選舉過程來挑戰官方威權或是作為社區事務發聲的管道。社區民眾如何在嚴酷的制度環境中發起對當權者的政治挑戰？本文將從居委會選舉中的選舉競爭，分析民眾挑戰執政當權所使用的資源稟賦。最後，通過基層競選觀察獲得的啟發是，民眾權利意識的提升，使得黨國忠誠不再凌駕一切。開放直接選舉的制度效果，如現代化理論所昭示的，存在學習效應並且在中產階級社區最為明顯。 / Undergoing the dramatic development of economic and social change in China, local governments pay great strength on the issue of governance for preventing any potential contentious activities. Facing the challenges of local governance, the Chinese governments adopt “Direct elections" for reducing the tension between state and society. In Urban city, direct elections as an important political reform, have been initiated in Residential Committee. Under the CCP party-state system, the local elections have been under severe surveillance. The negative result sharply deduces citizens’ political efficacy, especially on the manner of the participating in voting and political confidence towards local governments. However, in recent years, we observed that some Residential Committees in Shanghai experienced electoral competitions. In these cases, citizens organized the campaign to challenge the authority. The main questions are below: why Chinese people challenge the local authority? And how do they mobilize the campaign? Finally, how should we evaluate these political subjects? Based on these experiences, I conclude that the social-economical development may bring positive consequences on Chinese political reform.

A prerequisite for a healthy, sustainable democracy is an informed citizenry that partakes in the democratic process. This line of thought can be drawn back to the work of Habermas (Habermas, 1989:49). Accordingly, such active engagement necessitates communication to transpire between a citizenry and its chosen representatives as to sustain the democratic process. This also suggests that citizens should be able to participate in the communication process. Consequently, in recent years much discourse on the media and democracy correlation has focused on the potential role that the internet could play in the furtherance of democratic values. Optimistically, a virtual political public forum in which matters of general political concern are discussed could enhance political participation and the consolidation of political rights. The Habermasian public-sphere model incorporates three key elements, which could be applied in this context persons should have universal access to the sphere, the freedom to express diverse opinions, the freedom to receive diverse opinions and information, in addition to the freedom of participating in the public sphere without interference from state or mercantile imperatives (cf.Habermas, 1989). A qualitative content analysis of the web site of Elections Canada showed that the supposedly non-operational public-sphere model could be recovered within a new media context such as the internet despite the fact that the inherent interactive nature of the internet was not fully exploited by Elections Canada. Against this background, the assumption was made that the public-sphere's concepts could also be applied in the context of a developing democracy and accordingly that the sustainability of the democratic system could be further consolidated. The Electoral Commission (IEC) was chosen as a case study, since it is constitutionally mandated to establish a democratic South African society. The creation of an internet public sphere could therefore be one of the ways in which the IEC could contribute to this consolidation process. Through extensive content analysis, it was established that the organisational web site of the IEC was mainly expended as an information dissemination and organisational image-profiling tool. As a result the web site was did not focus on participatory communication. Universal access to the web site was also rather restricted, resulting in limited web site participation to voters from specific socio-economic, cultural, and language backgrounds. It was discovered, nevertheless, that some of the contents available on the web site could at least facilitate 'offline" participatory democracy and public opinion formation. Therefore, although the web site did not implement all of the normative prescriptions of the public-sphere ideal, voters were able to retrieve valuable electoral information that would assist them in capably participating in electoral democracy. / Thesis (M.A. (Communication Studies))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2005.

Cette thèse s'intéresse au lien qui existe entre le système électoral et deux comportements importants de la vie civique, soit la participation à une élection et la désertion stratégique du candidat préféré vers un autre candidat. Ces thèmes sont abordés dans de nombreux et de très importants ouvrages en science politique. En passant par la théorie (Downs, 1957) jusqu'à des études de terrain par l'entremise de sondages (Abramson, 2010; Blais, 2010), diverses méthodologies ont été employées pour mieux expliquer les choix des électeurs. Ma contribution à l'avancement des connaissances dans ce domaine passe par l'usage de la méthode expérimentale pour mieux saisir les similitudes et différences dans les comportements des électeurs sous le système uninominal à un tour (UT) et la représentation proportionnelle (RP) ainsi que les mécanismes au niveau individuel qui produisent ces similitudes et différences. Le cœur de la thèse est composé des trois articles dont voici les résumés : Article 1. Des élections expérimentales faites à Montréal, Paris et Bruxelles permettent d'estimer l’influence directe du mode de scrutin sur la décision des électeurs de voter ou non, et de voter pour leur parti préféré ou non. En tout, 16 groupes de 21 électeurs votent sous différents systèmes électoraux, soit le UT et la RP. Les préférences sont attribuées aléatoirement et connues de tous les participants. Nos résultats indiquent que le vote n'est pas globalement plus sincère et que la participation électorale n'est pas plus élevée sous le système proportionnel. Toutefois, nous observons moins de désertion d'un petit parti sous le système proportionnel. Article 2. Les expériences permettent également d'expliquer pourquoi les électeurs votent parfois pour un parti autre que leur parti préféré. La conclusion principale est que la décision de voter de façon sincère ou non est influencée par les préférences individuelles, mais aussi par les perceptions des chances de gagner des candidats ainsi que des chances que son propre vote puisse décider le résultat de l'élection. Les électeurs qui désertent leur premier choix prennent en considération quel candidat est le plus près de leurs positions politiques, mais également de la viabilité de cette alternative. De plus, les électeurs qui aiment prendre des risques ont davantage tendance à déserter. Article 3. Le modèle de l'électeur pivot est mis à l'épreuve pour mieux comprendre la décision de voter ou non lors d'une élection. Nos expériences permettent de répliquer, avec un devis expérimental différent, les résultats importants des travaux de Duffy et Tavits (2008). Nos résultats confirment que la perception d'être pivot augmente la participation, que ces perceptions sont sujettes à la surestimation et que cette surestimation ne décline pas complètement dans le temps. Nous allons également plus loin que les recherches de Duffy et Tavits et nous trouvons que la participation n'est pas plus forte sous RP que sous UT et que la probabilité d'être pivot a un impact plus important chez les électeurs évitant de prendre des risques. / This thesis focuses on the relationship between the electoral system and two important behaviors of civic life: participation in an election and the strategic desertion of the preferred candidate. These topics are addressed in very important books in political science. From theory (Duverger, 1954; Downs, 1957) to empirical research using surveys (Abramson, 2010; Blais, 2010), various methodologies have been used to better explain voter's choices. My contribution to knowledge is the use of experimental methods to better understand both similarities and differences in voter behavior under the plurality system (PLU) and the proportional representation (PR) system and the individual level mechanisms that produce these similarities and differences. The core of the thesis consists of three articles summarized below: Article 1. Experimental elections conducted in Montreal, Paris and Brussels estimate the direct influence of the voting system on the voters' decision whether to vote or not, and vote for their preferred party or another party. In all, 16 groups of 21 voters take part in elections under different electoral systems. The systems are simple plurality and proportional representation. Preferences are randomly assigned and known by all participants. Our results indicate that voting is globally not more sincere and that voter turnout is not higher under the proportional system. However, we observe less desertion of small parties under the proportional system. Article 2. We perform a laboratory experiment to explain why voters sometimes vote for a party other than the preferred one. The main conclusion of the paper is that in addition to voter preferences, perceptions of winning chances and belief in the possibility of affecting the outcome are key factors in the voter’s decision to vote sincerely or not. When they desert their first choice, voters consider their preferences and the viability of the alternatives. Voters who like to take risks are more prone to desert. Article 3. This paper examines the decision to vote or not in experimental elections. We replicate the important findings of Duffy and Tavits (2008) with a different design. Our results support their finding, that is, turnout is affected by the belief that one's vote counts and overestimation of the probability that one's vote counts does not decrease completely over time. Going beyond previous research, we also find that turnout is not higher under a proportional system than under a plurality system, and beliefs about being in a pivotal disposition have a greater impact on turnout among the risk averse.

A prerequisite for a healthy, sustainable democracy is an informed citizenry that partakes in the democratic process. This line of thought can be drawn back to the work of Habermas (Habermas, 1989:49). Accordingly, such active engagement necessitates communication to transpire between a citizenry and its chosen representatives as to sustain the democratic process. This also suggests that citizens should be able to participate in the communication process. Consequently, in recent years much discourse on the media and democracy correlation has focused on the potential role that the internet could play in the furtherance of democratic values. Optimistically, a virtual political public forum in which matters of general political concern are discussed could enhance political participation and the consolidation of political rights. The Habermasian public-sphere model incorporates three key elements, which could be applied in this context persons should have universal access to the sphere, the freedom to express diverse opinions, the freedom to receive diverse opinions and information, in addition to the freedom of participating in the public sphere without interference from state or mercantile imperatives (cf.Habermas, 1989). A qualitative content analysis of the web site of Elections Canada showed that the supposedly non-operational public-sphere model could be recovered within a new media context such as the internet despite the fact that the inherent interactive nature of the internet was not fully exploited by Elections Canada. Against this background, the assumption was made that the public-sphere's concepts could also be applied in the context of a developing democracy and accordingly that the sustainability of the democratic system could be further consolidated. The Electoral Commission (IEC) was chosen as a case study, since it is constitutionally mandated to establish a democratic South African society. The creation of an internet public sphere could therefore be one of the ways in which the IEC could contribute to this consolidation process. Through extensive content analysis, it was established that the organisational web site of the IEC was mainly expended as an information dissemination and organisational image-profiling tool. As a result the web site was did not focus on participatory communication. Universal access to the web site was also rather restricted, resulting in limited web site participation to voters from specific socio-economic, cultural, and language backgrounds. It was discovered, nevertheless, that some of the contents available on the web site could at least facilitate 'offline" participatory democracy and public opinion formation. Therefore, although the web site did not implement all of the normative prescriptions of the public-sphere ideal, voters were able to retrieve valuable electoral information that would assist them in capably participating in electoral democracy. / Thesis (M.A. (Communication Studies))--North-West University, Potchefstroom Campus, 2005.

This thesis revolves around two themes. The first is whether granting citizenship to immigrant children at birth affects their parents’ return migration decisions and integration into the host-country society. Evaluating the introduction of birthright citizenship in Germany in 2000, I show in chapter 1 that migrant families are less likely to return to their home countries if their children automatically obtain the German citizenship. Chapter 2 continues the analysis of the same reform and finds that it has different effects across integration dimensions. Finally, chapter 3 is dedicated to the second theme. It examines whether stating the profession of candidates in open-list elections influences voter satisfaction and voting behavior. The results of a field experiment conducted in Barcelona indicate that voters are more satisfied if they know the profession of the candidates and that candidates working in high-skill occupations enjoy an electoral advantage. / Esta tesis estudia dos temas. El primero es si otorgar la nacionalidad a los hijos de inmigrantes afecta las decisiones de sus padres de retornar a su país y la integración en el país de destino. En el primer capítulo muestro que las familias migrantes tienen menos probabilidad de volver a sus países de origen si sus hijos automáticamente obtienen la nacionalidad alemana. El capítulo dos sigue analizando la misma reforma y encuentra que sus efectos varían entre diferentes dimensiones de integración. Finalmente, el capítulo tres se dedica al segundo tema, el efecto de incluir la profesión de los candidatos en elecciones con listas abiertas. Los resultados de un experimento de campo en Barcelona indican que los votantes están más satisfechos si conocen la profesión de los candidatos y que los candidatos que trabajan en ocupaciones cualificadas disfrutan de una ventaja electoral.

Anthony Downs public choice theory proposes that every rational person would try to meet their own desires in preference to those of others, and that such rational persons would attempt to obtain these desires in the most efficient manner possible. This thesis submits that the application of this theory would mean that public servants and politicians would perform acts of corruption and maladministration in order to efficiently meet their desires. As such action is unavoidable, political parties must appear to meet the public demand for accountability systems, but must not make these systems viable lest they expose the corruption and maladministration that would threaten the government’s chance or re-election. The thesis demonstrates this hypothesis through a study of the history of the public sector in Queensland. It shows that all governments have displayed a commitment for accountability whilst simultaneously ensuring the systems would not be able to interfere with government control or expose its flaws.

Les Hauts-de-Seine constituent, depuis leur création en 1964, la place forte de la droite francilienne. L’enjeu politique est de taille, car ce « département-métropole » est souvent qualifié de « département le plus riche de France après Paris ». A l’image du pôle de La Défense, devenu le premier quartier d’affaires d’Europe, les Hauts-de-Seine ont connu ces dernières décennies de profondes transformations urbaines et d’importants bouleversements sociologiques et économiques. L’analyse géopolitique s’avère fructueuse pour comprendre ces mutations. En effet, elles sont étroitement liées à un ensemble de stratégies territoriales dont le but est le contrôle politique des Hauts-de-Seine. La droite a donc imaginé, mis en place et développé un système géopolitique local très efficace, que nous avons nommé la « banlieue bleue » et qui, par bien des aspects, constitue le double inversé de la banlieue rouge. Dans un premier temps, cette thèse montre la formation géopolitique de la « banlieue bleue » des Hauts-de-Seine. Puis, elle s’intéresse au fonctionnement et aux acteurs du système géopolitique local en insistant sur la dimension éminemment géopolitique des politiques publiques d’aménagement urbain qui ont transformé la physionomie des villes du département. Elle revient enfin sur les rivalités de pouvoirs à l’échelle métropolitaine. Face au risque d’absorption des départements de petite couronne dans la nouvelle Métropole du Grand Paris, le département développe un projet géopolitique d’envergure, la fusion des Hauts-de-Seine et des Yvelines, qui, si elle aboutit, ferait de ces deux départements une « banlieue bleue » XXL. / Since they were created in 1964, the Hauts-de-Seine have been a stronghold of the Ile-de-France's right wing. The political stakes are high as this 'departement-metropole' is often qualified as the second richest after Paris. Like the hub of La Defense, which has become Europe's first business centre, the Hauts-de-Seine have lately undergone deep sociological and economical changes as well as consequent urban transformations. The geopolitical analyse proves itself meaningful to understand these mutations. They indeed are tightly connected to a set of territorial strategies, the aim of which is the political control of the Hauts-de-Seine. The right-wing thus contrived, set up and developped a local geopolitical system which, to many aspects, is the mirror image of the red suburb. This dissertation first shows how the Hauts-de-Seine's blue suburb was organized. It then focuses on how the actors of the local geopolitical system operate by insisting on the outstanding geopolitical dimension of the public policies of the urban planning and on how this transformed the aspect of the department's cities. It also focuses on the competition for power at a metropolitan scale. Confronted to the risk of being assimilated by the Greater Paris, the departement is developping a large-scale geopolitical project, the merging between the Hauts-de-Seine and the Yvelines which, if put in practice, would make these suburbs a major blue suburb.