af / Suid-Afrika is sedert 27 April 1994 'n materiele regstaat, wat deur beide uitdruklike en 'ongeskrewe' fundamentele waardes onderskraag word. Dit is juis hierdie fundamentele waardes wat 'n blote formele konstitusie (as grondslag van 'n relative democracy) van 'n oppermagtige grondwet (as basis van 'n materiele standard-setting democracy) onderskei. Alhoewel daar 'n lewendige debat oor die toepaslikheid van die talle tradisionele grondwetuitlegmetodes gevoer word, is daar nietemin tans geen oorhoofse waardebaseerde paradigma vir grondwetuitleg nie. Soms wil dit voorkom asof fundamentele grondwetlike waardes net as normatiewe retoriek, in stede van materiele riglyn, by grondwetuitleg gebruik word. Die owerheidsgesag is aan hoer normatiewe regsbeginsels gebonde wat grotendeels in die fundamentele regte-akte (as deel van 'n oppermagtige grondwet) vervat is. Die gewaarborgde fundamentele regte dien derhalwe as konkretisering van beide die regstaat en die demokrasie: die materiele regstaatbegrip is die basis van _die grondwetlike staat. Die materiele regstaat, as geregtigheidstaat, kan dus gesien word as die eindbestemming van die grondwet as lex fundamentalis in die regsorde. 'n Oppermagtige grondwet is egter onlosmaaklik verbind aan die materiele regstaat. Daarom behels grondwetuitleg noodwendig die aktivering van die grondwetlik-gepositiveerde waardes. Hierdie normatiewe regsbeginsels en fundamentele waardes wat in die grondwet as grundnorm van die geregtigheidstaat beliggaam is, moet dan deur 'n onafhanklike regbank gehandhaaf en afgedwing word. In beginsel is grondwetuitleg gemoeid met die identifisering, handhawing en aktivering van die fundamentele waardes wat 'n oppermagtige grondwet onderskraag. Waarde-aktiverende grondwetuitleg is nietemin nie 'n bloudruk waarmee aile praktiese uitlegprobleme opgelos kan word nie, maar 'n oorhoofse waardebaseerde paradigma: 'n dwingende, normatiewe verwysingsraamwerk waarvandaan, waarbinne en waarheen grondwetuitleg op pad is. Die tradisionele grondwetuitlegmetodiek is bloat aanvullende tegnieke wat 'n waarde-aktiverende paradigma van grondwetuitleg ondersteun. Aangesien fundamentele waardes onlosmaaklik deel van die materiele regstaat is, moet grondwetuitleg nie net waardebaseer nie, maar ook waardegerig wees; nie net waardes handhaaf nie, maar ook bevorder en aktiveer; nie net waardes weerspieel nie, maar ook aktief vestig. 86 'n raamwerk vir grondwetuitleg behels die 'animering' en konkretisering van fundamentele waardes, ideale en standaarde wat die materiele regstaat onderle, kortom, waarde-aktiverende grondwetuitleg as vergestalting van die materiele regstaat. / On 27 April1994 South Africa became a constitutional state (Rechtsstaat), underpinned by both express, and 'unwritten' fundamental constitutional values. These values represent the distinction between a formal constitution (ie the basis of a relative democracy), and a supreme constitution (the foundation of a material standard-setting democracy). Although the merits of various methods of constitutional interpretation are hotly debated, no general value-based paradigm for constitutional interpretation has yet been established. At times it seems as if fundamental constitutional values are merely invoked as normative rhetoric during constitutional interpretation, rather than as substantive guidelines. Government institutions are bound by these higher normative legal principles, which in a supreme constitution are articulated primarily in the bill of fundamental rights. The guaranteed fundamental rights are a concretisation of both the constitutional state and democracy: the material law state principle (Rechtsstaatprinzip) as the foundation of the constitutional state. The Rechtsstaat as 'just state' is the ultimate goal of a supreme constitution as lex fundamentalis in the legal order. A supreme constitution is inextricably linked to the Rechtsstaat. As a result, constitutional interpretation inevitably involves animating and activating values positivised within the constitution.These normative legal principles and fundamental values must be maintained and enforced by an independent judiciary. In principle, constitutional interpretation deals with the identification, maintenance and animation of the fundamental values underlying a supreme constitution. Value-activating constitutional interpretation is not a blueprint for resolving all practical interpretive problems, but it is a general value-based paradigm: a peremptory, normative frame of reference from which, within which and towards which all constitutional interpretation should be directed. The traditional methodologies of constitutional interpretation are merely ancillary techniques supporting a value-activating paradigm of constitutional interpretation. Since fundamental values undeniably form part of the Rechtsstaat, constitutional interpretation should not only be value-based, but also values-directed; should not merely uphold the values, but also promote and activate them; should not only reflect the values, but also actively establish them. Such a framework for constitutional interpretation involves the animation and concretisation of the fundamental values, standards and ideals underlying the constitutional state: valueactivating constitutional interpretation as embodiment of the Rechtsstaat. / Law / LL.D. (Law)

Este trabalho trata fundamentalmente da admissibilidade dos julgamentos parciais do mérito e de questões de mérito no sistema processual civil brasileiro, considerando especialmente o modelo constitucional de processo civil, bem como no sistema processual prospectivo previsto no Projeto de Novo Código de Processo Civil, que deve entrar vigor em breve. Com este objetivo, será abordado no início da dissertação o dogma da unidade estrutural da sentença, sua origem, fundamentos e aplicabilidade no processo civil brasileiro, já que esse dogma parece ser o principal óbice que se opõe à realização dos julgamentos parciais. Em seguida, procede-se à análise da natureza dos pronunciamentos judiciais em que se realizam os julgamentos parciais, quando admitidos no CPC/73, para defini-los como decisões interlocutórias de mérito (ou de questões de mérito) ou sentenças parciais e intermediárias. Além disso, pretende-se estabelecer os pressupostos autorizadores dos julgamentos parciais, para que, assim, esses julgamentos sejam realizados de forma eficiente e em prol da efetividade da tutela jurisdicional. Trata-se ainda os julgamentos parciais na arbitragem e suas particularidades decorrentes das disposições específicas da Lei de Arbitragem e das características específicas do processo arbitral. Finalmente, nos capítulos finais deste estudo enfrentam-se os obstáculos que geralmente se colocam à realização dos julgamentos parciais relativamente ao âmbito recursal e à formação da coisa julgada. Para esse fim, são abordados a teoria dos capítulos de sentença, os efeitos dos recursos e, especialmente, a formação gradual da coisa julgada à luz da doutrina, da jurisprudência dos Tribunais Superiores e também do Projeto de Novo Código de Processo Civil. / This paper deals essentially with the possibility of rendering partial judgments on the merits and on issues of merits in the Brazilian Civil Procedure, considering especially the constitutional framework of civil procedure, as well as in the prospective procedural system provided by the New Code of Civil Procedure bill, which shall be in force soon. With this goal, the principle of the indivisibility of the award on merits, its origins, its grounds and its applicability to the Brazilian Civil Procedure are addressed in the beginning of the dissertation, as this principle seems to be the main obstacle against the partial judgments. Following this, the nature of the judicial decisions in wich the partial judgments take place when admitted by the Brazilian Code of Civil Procedure of 1973 shall be analysed, in order to characterize them either as interlocutory decisions on the merits (or on issues of merits) or as partial and intermediate awards. In addition, there is a focus on clarifying the conditions in which partial judgments can be rendered, in order to carried out in and efficient fashion, and hence contributing to the effectiveness of the judicial relief. Moreover, the partial judgments in arbitration, as well as their particularities arisen from the specific provisions under the Arbitration Act and singular characteristics of arbitral procedure are analysed. The final chapters of this paper face the obstacles associated with appeals and with claim preclusion that are usually posed against the rendering of partial judgments. For this scope, there shall be addressed the theory of chapters of the award, the effects of the appeals, and specially the gradual claim preclusion in view of the scholars opinions, the case law of the Higher Courts, and also under the New Code of Civil Procedure bill.

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior - CAPES / The aim of this research was to explore the impact of skin color and social strata of adolescents in conflict with the law on social representations and judgments of law students. In this study, 102 students participated, between the fifth and the tenth period of law, within a private college located in Aracaju-SE. The ages ranged between 20 and 62 years (M = 27.9, SD = 8.06), 54 male participants (52.9%). The study was conducted with an experimental design. On the instrument, we presented a case of an infractional act and manipulated among the groups the variables skin color and social stratum of the adolescent. After reading the case, participants were asked which of the socioeducational measures provided by the Child and Adolescent Statute (ECA) would be applied to the juvenile offender. The instrument also contained items about the social representation of the adolescent in conflict with the law, attitude towards the reduction of the criminal responsibility age, explanations for the infractional conduct and representations of the future of adolescents in conflict with the law. The results indicate that imprisonment, most severe penalty, is the most applied by participants (44.1%). Contrary to what predicted our hypothesis, there were no significant statistical differences in the application of the measures based on skin color and social strata of the adolescent and there was also no effect of these variables on social representations. However, we identified a representation objectified by contextual elements as "Problems in education" and "poverty", besides of pejorative (marginal, vagabond) and essentialist (offender, criminal) terms indicating a view of criminal behavior as definitive condition for these adolescents. Based on the literature and in the light of the results we discussed relations between social representations, prejudices and judgments within the Justice for Children and Youth in Brazil. / O objetivo desta pesquisa foi investigar o impacto da cor da pele e do estrato social do adolescente em conflito com a lei sobre representações sociais e julgamentos de estudantes de Direito. Participaram 102 estudantes, entre o quinto e o décimo período, de uma instituição particular de ensino localizada em Aracaju-SE. As idades variaram entre 20 e 62 anos (M = 27.9; DP = 8.06) e 54 era do sexo masculino (52,9 %). O estudo foi desenvolvido com um delineamento experimental. No instrumento, apresentamos um caso de ato infracional e manipulamos entre os grupos as variáveis cor da pele e estrato social do adolescente. Após a leitura do caso, os participantes foram questionados sobre qual ou quais das medidas socioeducativas previstas pelo ECA aplicariam ao adolescente em questão. O instrumento continha também itens sobre a representação social do adolescente em conflito com a lei, atitude frente à redução da idade de responsabilidade penal, explicações para a conduta infracional e representações do futuro do adolescente em conflito com a lei. Os resultados indicam que a internação, medida mais severa, é a mais aplicada pelos participantes (44,1%). Ao contrário do que previam nossas hipóteses, não houve diferenças significativas na aplicação das medidas em função da cor da pele e estrato social do adolescente e também não houve efeito dessas variáveis nas representações sociais. Contudo, identificamos uma representação objetivada por elementos do contexto como “Problemas na educação” e “Pobreza”, além de termos pejorativos (marginal, vagabundo) e essencialistas (infrator, criminoso) indicando uma visão da prática infracional enquanto condição definitiva para esses adolescentes. Com base na literatura e à luz dos resultados discutimos relações entre representações sociais, preconceitos e julgamentos no âmbito da Justiça da Infância e Juventude no Brasil.

La rétroactivité étant un mode d’application d’une règle de droit dans le temps, il convient de se demander en premier lieu si le juge crée des règles de droit afin de savoir si la jurisprudence est rétroactive ou seulement déclarative. Pour répondre à cette interrogation, il a paru nécessaire de définir la règle de droit comme la règle ayant vocation à être utilisée par un juge pour trancher un litige. Puis, pour savoir si plus précisément le juge posait de telles règles de droit, il a été fait recours aux règles de reconnaissance de Hart, invitant à regarder l’attitude du législateur, du juge et du peuple pour voir si la jurisprudence était considérée comme source du droit. La réponse est affirmative en ce qui concerne celle de la Cour de cassation. Il devient alors nécessaire en deuxième lieu de s’interroger sur la cause de cette rétroactivité. La théorie naturaliste, soutenant que toute règle de droit est naturellement rétroactive, et la théorie mécaniste, expliquant la rétroactivité par la nécessité pour le juge d’appliquer la règle créée au litige qui lui est soumis, ont paru devoir être écartée. Le fondement de la rétroactivité serait la théorie de l’incorporation, dont l’application aux créations jurisprudentielles et aux changements d’interprétation serait justifiée par la prohibition des arrêts de règlement. Dès lors, et en troisième lieu, comment lutter contre l’insécurité juridique produite par la rétroactivité jurisprudentielle ? Deux solutions paraissent efficaces : soit permettre à la Cour de cassation de rendre des arrêts de règlement, soit introduire une sorte de référé législatif permettant à la Cour de cassation de demander au législateur de modifier la norme, plutôt que d’opérer un revirement rétroactif. Puisqu’il nous paraît opportun de conserver une complémentarité entre la loi et la jurisprudence, seule la création d’un référé-suggestion semble être une solution satisfaisante au problème de la rétroactivité de la jurisprudence. / As retroactivity constitutes an application process of the law in time, it is worth first asking whether a judge's rulings are considered as a rule of law whether such case law is retroactive or declarative. To answer this question, it seemed necessary to define the rule of law as the rule that is intended to be used by a judge to settle a dispute. Then, to check whether the judge do make such rules of law, the Hart recognition rules were applied, inviting us to look at the attitude of the legislator, the judge and of the people to see if case law was considered as a source of law. The answer is yes with respect to the French Supreme Court's case law (Cour de cassation). It then becomes necessary to question the cause of this retroactivity. The naturalistic theory, which provides that any rule of law is naturally retroactive; and the mechanistic theory which justifies retroactivity by the need for the judge to apply the rule created by its ruling to the dispute brought before him had to be excluded. The basis of retroactivity would be the incorporation theory, the application of which to case law as well as to changes in interpretation would be justified by the prohibition of regulatory judgements (arrêts de règlement). Therefore one may wonder how to avoid the legal uncertainty produced by the retroactivity of case law ? Two solutions seem to be effective: either to enable the French Supreme Court to make regulatory judgements, or to introduce a kind of legislative summary proceedings enabling the French Supreme Court to request from the legislator to amend the rule, instead of creating a retroactive overruling decision. As it seems appropriate to maintain the complementarity between statutory law and case law, the creation of a legislative summary proceeding appears to be the only satisfying solution to the case law retroactivity issue.

The current work extends upon the theories of female mate preference in a novel way by examining how the interaction of race and the masculinity of males affect preference in females. In Study 1, I manipulated the facial masculinity of photographs of White, Black, and Asian males. Female participants rated the faces on attractiveness, masculinity, and age. In Study 2, nine photographs were matched on masculinity and participants made judgments on dimensions relating to dateabiltity, attractiveness, resources, masculinity, and parenting behaviors. Asian males are often neglected as potential romantic partners. A major aim of the current work was to assess if racial bias against Asian males in romantic situations are lessened with increased facial masculinity. Asian males were evaluated highly across several dimensions if they possessed high masculine facial characteristics. Medium masculine White and Black males were evaluated as the most attractive and dateable in their respective racial groups. Additionally, low masculine White and Black males were evaluated as better choices for resource and family-related attributions in their respective racial groups.

Qu’évoque la motivation ? Comment le droit répressif appréhende-t-il la motivation des décisions de justice ? Le concept de motivation renvoie à plusieurs aspects qui changent son sens suivant le rôle assigné à la fonction juridictionnelle. S’il est compréhensible qu'une seule et unique approche ne s'impose pas, la motivation doit être reconsidérée.Elle est en effet généralement perçue comme un instrument contentieux, l’objectif étant de limiter l’arbitraire du juge. A cette fin, elle appelle un ensemble de règles devant s’imposer au juge. L'examen de ces règles dans le domaine du droit répressif aboutit à un résultat peu satisfaisant. Si la motivation est imposée au juge dans certains cas, elle est en revanche écartée dans d’autres, sans qu’on puisse imposer un critère unique légitimant une telle distinction. La nature objective de son contenu est marquée par des lacunes qui alimentent l’approche subjective de la motivation. C'est lorsqu'il est question de méthode que les contournements sont les plus visibles : la motivation à phrase unique, le copier-coller ou encore la pratique de la motivation pré-rédigée. Au demeurant, le contrôle de la motivation, fut-il exercé par le juge européen, laisse au juge répressif une marge d'appréciation, voire parfois une totale liberté. Du droit de la motivation des décisions pénales, le résultat est finalement contrasté.Ne faut-il pas alors aller plus loin et dépasser cette approche contentieuse de la motivation des décisions pénales ? La réponse est évidemment positive. Pour mieux préserver les intérêts du justiciable, la motivation doit se transformer. Cette transformation se marque par un rapprochement de plus en plus fort entre la motivation et les droits fondamentaux du justiciable. La motivation se révèle en effet être la condition de l'exercice des droits de la défense, en même temps qu’elle s’intègre dans le concept plus large du droit au procès équitable. Dans la dynamique de cette évolution, la motivation -en vue de la compréhension et de l’acceptation de la décision par le justiciable- doit occuper une place centrale. Cela implique d'entrevoir, au-delà des règles imposées au juge de motiver la décision, certaines améliorations afin de parvenir à la reconnaissance d’un véritable droit du justiciable à la motivation de la décision, de sa décision. / What evokes motivation? How criminal law grasps motivation of judicial decisions ?The concept of motivation refers to several aspects that change its meaning depending on the role assigned to the judicial function. While it is understandable that a single approach does not compel, motivation should be reconsidered.Motivation is in fact generally perceived as a litigation instrument for the judge, the main aim being to limit its arbitrary power. To this end, a set of rules are binding on the judge. The review of these rules in the field of criminal law leads to an unsatisfactory result. If motivation is imposed on the judge in certain judicial decisions, it is however rejected in others, and a single criterion justifying such a distinction may not appear relevant. The objective nature of its contents is marked by gaps which feed the subjective approach to the motivation. It is when it is about method that the bypassing is the most visible : the motivation with unique sentence, the copy and paste or the practice of the pre-drafted motivation. Moreover, even exercised by the European Court, control of motivation leaves the criminal judge many appreciation margins, even sometimes a total freedom. Concerning the analysis of the criminal decisions, the right of the motivation ends in a contrasted result.Should we then go further and beyond this litigating approach of motivation? The answer is obviously positive. To better safeguard the interests of citizens, motivation must be transformed. This transformation is marked by an increasing connection between motivation and fundamental human rights. The motivation turns out to be the condition for the exercise of the rights of defense, while it fits into the category of the right to fair trial. In the dynamics of this evolution, the motivation - with the aim of the understanding and of the acceptance of the decision by the citizen - has to occupy a central place. It involves to glimpse, beyond rules compulsory for the judge to motivate the decision, certain improvements in order to achieve the recognition of a genuine right of the defendant for the motivation of the decision, its decision.

La Guinée, depuis son accession à l’indépendance en 1958, a été dirigée par des régimes autoritaires successifs et a traversé des périodes marquées par de graves victimisations dont les plus remarquables se sont produites entre 1958 et 1984, sous le règne d’Ahmed Sékou Touré, puis dernièrement en 2009, sous le règne du Capitaine Moussa Dadis Camara. Ces crimes contre l’humanité ont eu des impacts directs et indirects sur la vie des victimes, leurs familles, et proches. Ils ont causé des milliers de morts, provoqué l’exil d’innombrables individus et occasionné le viol de centaines de femmes (Human Rights Watch, 2011). Bien que l’État guinéen ait entrepris de nombreuses actions visant ostentatoirement à faire justice aux victimes de ces faits, ces dernières demeurent insatisfaites et persistent dans leur quête de justice. Ceci nous conduit à des questionnements : qu’est-ce que la justice pour les victimes de crimes contre l’humanité en Guinée ? Comment les victimes arrivent-elles à ce sentiment de justice ? Dans cette thèse, nous explorons le sentiment de justice de 31 victimes de crimes contre l’humanité commis en Guinée. Plus précisément, nous utilisons, comme cadre théorique la théorie de la justice pour examiner les perceptions et expériences de victimes par rapport à la justice afin de promouvoir la réconciliation et la paix durable. Les résultats indiquent que la justice a plusieurs dimensions, à savoir la justice distributive, la justice procédurale et la justice interactionnelle. Bien que la justice distributive (punition et réparation) soit évoquée plus rapidement dans le discours des victimes, la justice procédurale (neutralité des autorités, constance, etc.) et la justice interactionnelle (respect, information, etc.) ont toutes aussi leur importance aux yeux des victimes. Il existe plusieurs similarités entre les deux groupes de victimes étudiés, entre celles de 1958-1984 et celles de 2009, quant aux violences commises, à leurs conséquences et à la définition de la justice. Mais, ces deux groupes diffèrent sous plusieurs autres coutures, notamment par rapport aux types de violences, à la durée de la commission des crimes, à la méthode utilisée pour les commettre, à l’interchangeabilité des rôles victimes-bourreaux, à la durée des conséquences des crimes et à l’importance des éléments compris dans la définition de la justice. Certains éléments de la définition de la justice seraient plus importants que d’autres pour chaque groupe de victimes compte tenu du temps passé depuis la commission des crimes, du décès de la plupart des bourreaux, et de l’interchangeabilité des rôles bourreaux victimes. Cela dit, la justice dans son ensemble est une condition à la réconciliation. Toutefois, le manque de justice vécue par les victimes remet en question la réconciliation en Guinée. / Since its independence in 1958, Guinea has been ruled by authoritarian regimes that caused many victims of serious violations, the most notable dating from 1958 to 1984 under the reign of Ahmed Sékou Touré and recently in 2009 under the reign of Moussa Dadis Camara. The crimes against humanity in Guinea had direct and indirect impacts on the lives of the victims, their families, and their loved ones. They have left thousands of dead, they resulted in the exile of countless individuals and the rape and abuse of hundreds of women (Human Rights Watch, 2011). While some efforts have been made to address this violence, victims nevertheless persist in their demand for justice. This raises many questions: what is justice for the victims of crimes against humanity in Guinea? How do victims come to the sense of justice? In this paper, we explore the perceptions of justice of 31 victims of crimes against humanity in Guinea. More specifically, we use justice as a theoretical framework to examine perceptions and experiences of victims in relation to justice in order to promote reconciliation and lasting peace. The results indicate that justice has several dimensions, namely distributive justice, procedural justice and interactional justice. Although distributive justice (punishment and reparation) comes more quickly in victims’ discourse, procedural justice (neutrality of authorities, constancy, etc.) and interactional justice (respect, information, etc.) are equally important in the eyes of the victims. There are several similarities between the two groups of victims (1958–1984 and 2009) as regards the violence committed, their consequences, and the definition of justice. However, there are differences as well, particularly regarding the types of violence, the duration of the crimes, the method used to commit the crimes, the interchangeability of victim-offender roles, the duration of the consequences of crimes and the importance of the elements included in the definition of justice. Some elements included in the definition of justice would be more important than others for each group of victims given the time that has passed since the commission of crimes, the death of most perpetrators, and the interchangeability of victims perpetrators’ roles. That said, justice as a whole is a condition for reconciliation. However, the lack of justice experienced by the victims calls into question reconciliation in Guinea.

La division du monde en États souverains favorise les stratégies des justiciables souhaitant bénéficier d’une législation conforme à leurs aspirations. Ces pratiques sont qualifiées de forum shopping et de law shopping. Les sujets de droit sont alors assimilés à des consommateurs, et le droit est alors réduit à un simple produit « commercialisé » par les différents ordres juridiques. Ces pratiques reposent sur la place grandissante accordée à la personne qui, compte tenu de la mondialisation, devient de plus en plus mobile. Les ordres juridiques nationaux sont alors placés en concurrence et encourent le risque de voir leurs législations les plus impératives évincées. En outre, le marché global de la justice favorise les manoeuvres les plus déloyales.Pour autant, ces pratiques ne font l’objet d’aucune réglementation spécifique. Le droit international privé doit donc trouver les remèdes permettant de contrôler l’exercice du forum shopping et du law shopping pour moraliser le contentieux international et préserver les intérêts étatiques. / The world division into sovereign states encourages persons answerable to the law to usestrategies as they seek to benefit from legislations consistent with their aspirations. These practices are called forum shopping and law shopping. Subjects of law are therefore compared to consumers when the law is reduced to a simple product « marketed » by different national legal orders. These practices take root in the ever growing space the subject of law is given, considering how much mobile they are becoming along with globalization. Consequently,national legal orders are competing against each other with the risk of seeing their most imperative legislation being ousted. Furthermore, world trade of justice fosters the most dishonest maneuvers. Meanwhile, these practices aren’t subjected to any specific regulation. Private international law must find the solutions that would allow control over exercising forum shopping and law shopping in order to reform international litigation and preserve state interests.

[pt] A produção de petróleo possui alta relevância em âmbito brasileiro e mundial. Por outro lado, a incerteza do setor presume alta variabilidade nas previsões de produção de óleo, e exerce um impacto significativo nas decisões. O estudo contempla analisar o cenário da bacia geográfica de Campos, em estudo de caso aplicado em empresa nacional de óleo e gás, com objetivo de aprimorar a previsão de produção de óleo. Para isso, são empregados métodos de simulação, clusterização e previsão, sendo integrados com julgamento humano. Busca-se inferir as incertezas inerentes às atividades, analisar os principais riscos envolvidos e subsidiar a definição das metas de produção. Com esse intuito, foi desenvolvida uma modelagem orientada a dados, por meio da criação de um simulador com linguagem de programação em R. Os dados compreendem os anos de 2017 a 2021, e a projeção é realizada para o ano de 2022. O modelo incorpora julgamento humano durante o processo, permitindo que os especialistas realizem modificações no resultado das previsões, agregando sua experiência e informações exclusivas. A análise de série temporal avalia oito métodos de previsão, seu resultado mostra que a entidade do potencial produtivo apresenta menor erro do que na eficiência, e o método TBATs obteve o menor erro na predição. A análise do planejamento das paradas e entrada dos novos poços é realizada por meio de análise gráfica, observando os principais riscos relacionados. Por fim, o simulador apresenta proposta para auxiliar na definição das metas de produção, ele verifica a probabilidade para alcançar a meta com base nos resultados das simulações. / [en] Oil production has Brazilian and World importance. However, the randomness of the sector results a high variability in oil production forecasts. This variability has a significant impact on decisions. The study analyzes the challenging scenario at geographic Campos basin, in a case applied in a national energy company. The objective is to improve the risk analysis associated with the achievement of oil production targets. Simulation, clustering, and time series forecasting methods are employed, integrating into human judgment. It tries to infer the uncertainties inherent of the activities to increase the accuracy of oil production forecasts, analyze the main risks involved, and subsidize the definition of production targets. A data-driven model is developed, creating a simulator with R language. The data used the years 2017 to 2021, and the projection is made for the year 2022. Human judgment is incorporated into the model during the process, specifying the input parameters to enable experts to make modifications based on the predictions, adding their unique experience and information. The time series analysis eight prediction methods, the results show that the oil potential presents less error than in the production efficiency, and TBATS was the prediction method that obtained the lowest prediction error. The main risks related to the maintenance planning and the entry of new wells are identified through graphical analysis. Finally, the simulator presents a possible solution to help define production goals, it verifies the probability of reaching the goal based on the simulation results.

The Southern African Development Community (SADC) is a regional economic community established by Treaty in 1992 and comprising fifteen southern African countries. The Tribunal, SADC’s judicial organ, is situated in Windhoek, Namibia and became operational in 2005. The Tribunal enjoys a wide mandate to hear and determine disputes between states, states and SADC, and between natural and legal persons and states or SADC. It is mandated to develop its own jurisprudence having regard to applicable treaties, general rules and principles of public international law, and principles and rules of law of member states. Being new in the field, the Tribunal has not as yet developed a significant jurisprudence although it has delivered a number of judgments some of which are referred to in the study. The Tribunal is expected to develop its own jurisprudence having regard to the jurisprudence developed by other international courts involved in the judicial settlement of disputes. The study offers a comparative review and analysis of the jurisprudence of two selected courts: the International Court of Justice (ICJ) and the Court of Justice of the European Union (ECJ). The focus is on four selected areas considered crucial to the functioning of the Tribunal and the selected courts. The study discusses the parties with access to the Tribunal and compares this with access to the ICJ and ECJ. The jurisdiction of the Tribunal is contrasted with that of the two selected courts. The sources of law available to the Tribunal are discussed and contrasted to those of the two courts. Lastly, the enforcement of law in SADC is contrasted to what applies in relation to the selected courts. In each selected area, similarities and differences between the Tribunal and the two courts are noted and critically evaluated. Further, rules and principles developed by the two selected courts are explored in depth with a view to identifying those which could be of use to the Tribunal. Recommendations are made on rules and principles which could be of use to the Tribunal and on possible improvements to the SADC treaty regime. / Constitutional, International and Indigenous Law / LL.D.