管理當局與利害關係人(stakeholders)之間，透過會計資訊的提供，可降低代理問題及資訊不對稱。惟會計資訊的提供，依管理當局介入的程度不同，會有層次上的差別。 本文即從層次開始，界定了盈餘管理(Earnings Management)與盈餘操縱(Earnings Manipulation)的不同，而透過營運政策中的營業活動(operational activities)來影響盈餘的方式地處兩者之間的灰色地帶，目前至今尚少討論。Roychowdhury(2006)則以美國市場為對象，首開先例發展了如何偵測公司透過營業活動的實質盈餘管理行為。 本文同樣選定避免報導損失為盈餘門檻，考量台灣市場的特性後，偵測台灣企業是否有真實營業活動的盈餘管行為。實證結果顯示，無論是透過銷貨操縱、降低裁決性支出還是過量生產以降低銷貨成本的實質交易操作，都得到顯著地支持。進一步分析那些特性的企業，較容易透過真實營業相關的活動來從事盈餘管理行為時發現，債務契約壓力高、成長性機會高及利害關係人緊密度高者符合預期，而製造業性質則與預期相反，盈餘管理彈性則未得到支持。另外在機構投資人持股方面，則發現高機構投資人持股可降低過量生產實質交易操作的可能，但未能有效防止降低裁決性支出的操作。 / Through providing accounting information for stakeholders , management could somewhat reduce agency problem and information asymmetry.But accounting information quality could be different depending on how management intervene in . This article begins from distinguishing between Earnings Management and Earnings Manipulation.To intervene in business policy through real operational activities is not only one way that is hard to categorize in Earnings Management or Earnings Manipulation but also receives little attention to date. Roychowdhury(2006), taking American market as observation values,was the first one who developed how to detect real operational activities earnings management. Following Roychowdhury(2006),I define avoiding reporting loss as earnings threshold to detect whether real operational activities earnings management exists in Taiwan business.There is obvious evidence suggesting sales manipulation、reduction of discretionary expenditures and overproduction to report lower cost of goods sold to improve reported margins.To go a step further,I test observation values of what characters are inclined to manipulate earnings through real operational activities. I find supporting evidence in observation values with higher debt stress、higher growth opportunity、higher connection with stakeholders and samples on non manufacturing industry.But I find no evidence in observation values with higer earnings management elasticity.In addition,I find observation values with higher instutional holding shares could abate the possibilities of overproduction to report lower cost of goods sold,but fail to avoid the manipulation of reduction of discretionary expenditures.

論文題目：影響網路書店消費者忠誠度形成因素之研究 校所：國立政治大學國際貿易系碩士班國際企管行銷組 論文摘要別：九十學年度第二學期碩士學位論文摘要 研究生：吳雅琪 指導教授：邱志聖博士 論文摘要內容： 隨著網際網路的興起，企業應用網路行銷的趨勢已是必然，消費者越來越能接受網路商店概念，網路商店間的競爭相當激烈，公司要真正獲利，必須建立顧客對網站的品牌忠誠度。因而本研究最主要探討影響消費者所認知網路書店的產品服務屬性滿意度、服務品質與信任度對消費者網路書店整體滿意度的影響關係，了解滿意度與消費者態度忠誠間的關係，並從交易成本構面的「消費者信任度」與「資產專屬性」來了解可能影響消費者滿意度、態度忠誠、行為忠誠度間的因素，以及研究態度忠誠與行為忠誠的關係為何，而兩者會如何受交易成本的構面影響。整合以上架構，本研究構建一整體模型，以網路書店消費者為研究對象，對各個構念進行分析。 由本研究實證結果顯示網路書店產品屬性的滿意度對於其整體滿意度有顯著影響，而產品屬性滿意度與服務品質則會對網路書店的信任度有顯著的影響效果，產品服務滿意度、消費者認知到網站的服務品質、及消費者對網站的信任度也會顯著影響網站整體滿意度。消費者整體滿意度與資產專屬性會正面影響顧客的態度忠誠，而消費者整體滿意度的增加也會幫助網路書店與其之間建立的專屬資產，兩者之間呈現正相關。 研究結果顯示消費者對於網路書店信任度與他們的態度忠誠度無關，原因推論為消費者對於購物網站的信任度並不會直接影響其對網路書店的態度忠誠，而是先透過整體滿意度的提升，再經由整體滿意度進而間接影響其態度忠誠。消費者與網路書店所建立的專屬資產與他們的行為忠誠度是呈現不相關，推論原因為網路書店與顧客間所建立的專屬資產並不會直接影響行為忠誠，網路書店必須努力提升消費者態度上的忠誠，加強其心裡認同感，並經由態度忠誠去影響行為忠誠。 關鍵字：顧客滿意度、顧客忠誠度、交易成本理論、服務品質、網路書店

近年國內企業發生財務報表不實的舞弊，大多先涉及虛偽銷貨，爾後再透過各種手法加以掩飾。過去學者的研究指出，當財務報表舞弊為虛偽交易類型時，會計師被告之機會較大。當受查者的交易型態變得複雜，會計師查核財務報表之外在不確定性增加，審計失敗的機會增加；會計師面臨的審計風險變高，會計師事務所之營業風險提高。 因此，本研究為降低會計師未來因虛偽銷貨而冒之法律風險而分析我國上市櫃公司虛偽銷貨舞弊之手法及警訊，俾助會計師得評估虛偽銷貨之風險，規劃可偵出虛偽銷貨之查核程序。 本研究透過個案分析及問卷調查，歸納出以下結論： 1.目前企業進行虛偽銷貨之手法，皆以關係人為銷貨對象，可能以同一批貨在關係人間買賣（如勁永），或以假冒之商品出貨（如博達），亦可能根本沒出貨，以虛假之發票及資金的流動製造銷貨之假象（如皇統）。 2.企業於舞弊期間之警訊，則以營業項目及融資項目之變化最為明顯。前者包含企業於舞弊期間銷貨予關係人之比率異常增加，或外銷比率或外銷地區經年改變，亦可能主要客戶及供應商交易情形（如銷貨金額占總銷貨淨額百分比）變化大；後者則包含公司規模小，卻發行ECB，且發行條件異常（如閉鎖期過短），或該公司於舞弊期間之海外存款之比率異常增加。 3.針對虛偽銷貨會計師查核程序之規劃，則應先辨認出關係人，再規劃辨認異常物流狀況之查核程序。 / In recent years, management fraud in financial statements has been occurred in Taiwan. These reporting frauds were often related to fictitious sales, and then covered the frauds in other ways. Prior studies examined that auditors have higher risk of litigation when the fraud type is fictitious transactions. Auditors are more likely to be sued when the financial statement frauds are of a common variety, and then higher risk of managing the firms. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the patterns of fraud schemes used by management to perpetrate and conceal fraud and finds out the proper audit procedure of fictitious sales to decline the risk of litigation. After a series case-by-case analysis and questionnaire investigation, it can be concluded as follows: 1.The patterns of fraud schemes in fictitious sales used by management are selling the inventories to related parties. For instance, managements may transact the same inventories between related parties(勁永), sell the fake products(博達), or they might create fake documents such as fake purchase orders, fake invoices and fake shipping documents to conceal fictitious sales(皇統). 2.The most common implication of financial statement fraud is operating and financing activities. The former includes the increasing rate of transaction between the management and related party or varieties of overseas sales and areas with sales aboard; the latter contains the small-sized-firms issued ECB with abnormal conditions, and abnormal increasing ratio of overseas deposit during the fraud. 3.The audit procedure of fictitious sales, we should find out the related parties, and then draw up the audit procedure of indentifying abnormal transaction.

本論文研究軸心，首先探討鐵路事業公司化政策執行過程，並在相關文獻中，歸納公司化政策面臨資產閒置與組織僵化等問題，導致債務與虧損問題日趨嚴重。其中，資產閒置問題，除了受到相關法令限制而無法提升效益之外，對於政府投資鐵路立體化建設而衍生組織龐大與交易成本問題，目前尚未從預算執行面進行檢討與分析。此外，對於行政部門之間及鐵路局內部，因組織僵化而產生公共事務代理問題，依舊阻礙公司化政策執行腳步。故本研究藉由以上問題之歸納，進一步從資產面建構兼顧運輸本業及債務處理之政策架構。 / 國營事業改革的方法之一，即採用公司化方式完成民營化的階段性目標。在法學上觀點，公司化後國家仍擔負各種不同的監督與管理義務，尤其在行政任務完全私化的過程之中，國家仍具各項主管法令之執行角色。因此「國家保留」之各項責任，不管是在公司化的任何過程之中，國家均具有憲法位階所賦予之「影響義務」。然而國家如何決定公營事業公司化的基本政策？而公司化之後的國家管制行為，如何在法律規範與擔保義務之間，建立適度的決策方法？依循代理理論與自償評估方法，可發現「臺鐵公司化基本方案」窒礙難行的主要關鍵為政策不確定性與道德危險問題之應如何妥善解決；而經重新檢討補貼負擔之基本對策後，對鐵路事業民營化之條件提升及相關權利義務之界定確有助益。 / 其次，對於為人詬病的資產閒置與無力更新等問題，政府積極投入鐵路設備更新計畫，以鐵路地下化建設為例，單一建設計畫就預算規劃角度分析，因涉預算制度差異與政治協商等問題，在預算執行中不僅惡化資金缺口並已危及鐵路事業財務體質。本文依據交易成本理論之基礎，分析臺北都會區鐵路地下化建設因涉及公務與事業預算所造成的實施成本擴大問題；並就資金缺口之弭平，提出補貼策略的修正建議。惟資金缺口背後隱含資訊不對稱而產生錯誤決策的政治層面問題，致使實施成本逐年擴增。此觀察引發本文從交易成本政治學觀點進行分析的研究旨趣，並就預算規劃衍生的代理關係，分從資訊不對稱、代理問題、交易成本、認知差距、權益配置與誘因設計等方向進行課題之論述與回應，以探索經濟層面所無法釐清的關鍵決策因素。由此，本文論證了預算制度的差異預留了政治行動者的利益競逐與衝突空間，從而惡化了預算執行與配置的失能無效，也顯現了預算治理制度的重建與策略再造建議的提出，將有效減低鐵路地下化交易成本與政策失靈之風險。 / 最後，我國鐵路事業改革方法，係採用公司化方式完成民營化政策的階段性目標。在公司化之前，鐵路局除了負擔公共運輸責任及龐大現金債務，並管理為數眾多的各項資產，但卻受限鐵路法及國有公用土地不得處分收益等因素，遲遲未能有效開發利用。因此，本文首先探討公司化政策執行過程，在不同政策架構之下，將足以影響鐵路公司資產的持有狀況，續利用資產目標函數進而歸納資產全數移交政府接管將可有助於清理歷史債務並挹注補貼負擔等資金缺口問題。換言之，過去部分文獻雖然論證以「車路合一」模式推動公司化政策仍有累積盈餘之潛力，但本文利用自償率分析資產結構與法令規範之間關係，則推論認為「車路分離」模式更能客觀建構資產、債務、補貼負擔之財政架構，甚至創造較為豐厚的資產報酬，以避免鐵路事業公司化政策轉變成為政府永無止境的財政負擔。 / The axis of this thesis is about the corporatization policy of the railway business corporation. By collection of related literature, this thesis induces that the corporatization policy is facing the idle asset and ossified organization problems and aggravates the debt and loss situation. Among those, the idle asset problem, caused by restriction of related law to enhance efficiency and invest building construction, the mammoth organization and transaction cost problems have not yet been examined and analyzed from the viewpoint of budget implementation. In addition, the public affair agency problem engendered by the ossified organization inside the railways administration and related administrative administrations still hinders the process of the implementation of the corporatization policy. Hence, by summing up the questions above, this research constructs the policy structure considering both the transportation business and resolution of debt problem from the asset perspective. / Corporatization is one of the ways toward privatization in restructuring state owned enterprises. From legal perspective, government should still supervise and monitor the privatized enterprises. Especially, government should carry out regulation regime to protect stakeholders’ benefits during the corporatizating process. In other words, it requires a total state commitment endowed by the Constitution with influence duties. How to manage restructuring processes strategically in ways that will further economic democracy, efficiency and social progress? What are the obstacles which hinder the establishment of a state commitment in corporatization? Drawing perspectives from agency theory and refining self-liquidating evaluation, the author underscores the uncertainties and moral hazards in Taiwan Railway Administration’s corporatization and suggests how government can implement successful strategies to meet goals required by the privatization laws and build up a well-organized subsidy system to reinforce her influential role and regulatory capacity. / The second, the government positively invests the railway equipment to renew the problem of asset idle which denounced regarding the manner. Inspired by the perspectives from transaction cost economics and politics, this paper demystifies the hierarchy and authority relationships between supervising and operating agencies in the budgetary process. We unbound the blanket category of transaction costs into empirically verifiable elements including incomplete and asymmetric information, agency problems, transaction costs, stakeholder redistribution, ideology, incentives, etc. We identify political hazards as crucial determinants of the choice of political governance in budget execution and the transactional attributes that give rise to such hazards. The agencies in our analysis incur costs of providing a comprehensive budget design and tax revenue allocation, and are faced with a trade?off between providing incentives and reducing ex post costly enforcement. Extending transaction cost politics into the budgetary domains suggests that transaction costs in current political market did not lead project’s political stakeholders to move toward more efficient outcomes and result in significant enforcement costs. Framing the issue as a budgetary administration and project delivery problem, this paper highlights the challenges in using separation of power panels when the goals of the panels are uncodifiable. This paper concludes offering ideas for institutional engineering and a special subsidy is proposed. However, reformulating self-liquidating analysis and carefully justifying the authority and obligation relationships between agencies should play important roles in reducing transaction costs, ensuring enforceability of agreements, and achieving more efficient budgeting outcomes. / The final, corporatization is one of the ways toward privatization in restructuring state owned enterprises. In form of Corporatization, even though railway administration authority shoulders public transportation responsibility and huge debt, multitudinous real estate had not been effectively developed because of the limitation from railway act and on the liquidation of public facilities and state-owned land. This article first discourses that different formats of corporation policy affect assets’ efficient utilization, and uses market structure theory to set up asset objective function and learn that hand over all assets to government could clean up historical debts and enhances social welfare and assets’ utilization. In other words, although some literatures maintained that “infrastructure model” have potential of earnings accumulation, based on the use of Self-liquidation ratio to identify the relationship between asset structure and government regulation, the induction of “road model” could restructure asset/debt and subsidy. It even creates a richer property return to avoid railway operation being government‘s unlimited financial burden.

本文以日內資料研究台灣證券交易所於2005年3月1日實施股價升降單位新制後，市場交易因子與股價報酬波動率的變化；延伸討論市場參與者對新訊息之反應，進而評估實施股價升降單位新制之成效。本文首先比較四種常用來衡量報酬波動率的方法，並從中挑選出最穩健的測度方式；接著藉此分析股價日報酬波動率與市場交易因子之間的關係；最後，由於日內股價報酬波動的軌跡呈現U型曲線，為突顯波動較劇烈之時段股價報酬波動率是否亦隨股價升降單位縮小而趨緩，故著眼交易日開盤後一小時及收盤前一小時，再次檢驗上述關係。實證結果支持股價升降單位縮小使實現波動率大幅降低且交易筆數密切影響股價報酬波動率，且不論在日資料與日內資料都呈現相似結論；並發現愈接近開、收盤的時間點，股價報酬波動率降低比例亦愈大，顯示升降單位新制達成政策目的。 / In this study, we address the impact of the tick size reduction on the Taiwan Stock Exchange on March 1, 2005. We propose to investigate the variations of trading activities and return volatility, discuss investors' behaviors to the new information and evaluate the tick size reduction by analyzing intraday data. First, we select the most robust volatility measure for our study from four commonly used ones. Second, we examine the relationship between daily return volatility and trading activities. Eventually, due to the commonly observed U-shaped pattern of intraday return volatility, we re-examine the intraday relation between return volatility and trading activities. Our empirical results based on the robust realized volatility confirm that both daily and intraday return volatility decline significantly after the tick size reduction, and number of trades is a prominent trading factor in explaining realized volatility. More interestingly, we observe that the percentage decrease in realized volatility is most pronounced for trading sessions near the beginning or the ending of each trading day. Overall, our empirical findings support the arguments for tick size reduction intended by policymakers.

本研究旨在探討內部人股票交易與盈餘管理之關聯性，並進一步檢視我國近年來為強化公司治理所引進之獨立董監事制度是否能對內部人交易與盈餘管理間之關聯性產生抑制效果。在分析時，本研究係將全部樣本區分為賣出組及買入組，並分別進行驗證。 實證結果顯示，發生內部人異常出售股票交易之樣本公司，其管理階層將於同一期進行使盈餘降低之盈餘管理。而此一結果所隱含之意義為，內部人為降低日後回補持股之成本，會於出售持股當期進行盈餘之操弄，以求影響未來股價。然而，在發生內部人異常買入股票現象之樣本公司，卻未發現如本研究所預期之內部人為極大化未來出售持股利益而從事使盈餘提高之盈餘管理的現象，本研究推測可能原因係內部人買入本公司股票之理由眾多，因此也不必然有拉抬未來股價以求自未來出售股票交易中獲利之考量。 另外，在獨立董事與獨立監察人對於內部人異常交易及盈餘管理間關係之抑制效果的部分，在買入組或賣出組均未發現顯著之抑制效果。對此，本研究認為可能之原因係獨立董監事制度在我國實施之時間尚短，且多數公司係基於法令之要求始設置獨立董監事，而在這樣的現況下，似乎難以預期獨立董監事能有效監督公司內部人之異常股票交易行為以及盈餘管理行為。 / This thesis examines if there is an association between insider trading and earnings management. Furthermore, this thesis examines whether independent directors and independent supervisors can suppress the relationship between insider trading and earnings management. In the analytical process, the whole sample is divided into two sub samples which are sell and buy sub sample. The two sub samples are examined separately. And this thesis finds that there is a negative association between insider trading and earnings management in the sell sub sample which suggests that executives will manage earnings downward in the same period of insider selling to minimize their cost of buying stocks back in the future. And this result is consistent with the hypothesis. But no proper evidence is found about the relationship between insider trading and earning management in the buy sub sample. This may result from that there are many reasons for insiders to buy stocks of their firms. And insiders do not necessarily buy stocks of their firms to make profits by selling them in the future. Besides, in the part of the suppressing effect of independent directors and supervisors, proper evidences do not exist neither in the buy sub sample nor in the sell sub sample. A possible reason is that since the independent directors and supervisors system is still new in Taiwan, and most firms with independent directors and supervisors are just enforced by regulations to set independent directors and supervisors, it's hard to expect that independent directors and supervisors to play their roles effectively.

移轉訂價係指關係企業間進行交易時，價格之訂定過程。由於各國稅制、稅率均存在差異，使跨國集團常透過移轉訂價之方式，不當安排其利潤以規避稅負。各國稅捐主管機關本其財政收入考量，並捍衛其課稅主權，紛紛建立移轉訂價稅制，要求關係企業間移轉訂價必須符合常規交易原則。 　　近年來，智慧財產已逐漸取代有形財產，成為企業價值之主要項目。由於智慧財產並無公開交易市場，且其通常具有一定之獨特性，致使涉及智慧財產之受控交易，於運用常規交易原則時產生諸多困難。 　　本論文為智慧財產移轉訂價之探索性研究，從稅制面進行分析與探討。研究結果發現，我國現行稅制與經濟暨合作發展組織、美國移轉訂價規範相較之下，未臻完備之處有： 1. 欠缺成本貢獻協議之具體規範； 2. 欠缺相互協議程序之具體適用規範。 　　此外，智慧財產受控交易於運用我國現行移轉訂價規範時，容易產生爭議及困難點之處在於： 1. 缺乏可比較未受控交易； 2. 智慧財產所有權之認定； 3. 共同研發之課稅問題； 4. 相互協議程序和預先訂價協議機制難以適用。 / Transfer pricing refers to a process of pricing arrangement in a controlled transactions between affiliated enterprises. Due to differences in tax legislations and tax rates among countries, multinational corporations may deliberately allocate their profits into different countries by leveraging off those differences, so its overall tax liabilities may be minimized. In view of the foregoing, tax authorities of various countries have began to formed transfer pricing related rules and regulations in order to preserve their tax bases and have requested full conformity of transfer pricing rules from resident enterprises when conducting related party transactions. In recent years, intellectual property (“IP”) has overtaken the importance of tangible assets and became a predominant operating item in many of the enterprises. However, given the inherent uniqueness in each IP and the lack of open market for the IP, difficulties often arise when applying the arm’s length principal on IP related controlled transactions. This exploratory research discusses transfer pricing of IP. Through this research, it is identified that there may be room for improvements for Taiwan transfer pricing rules in the following two areas in comparison with the OECD and U.S. transfer pricing rules: 1. Rules of cost contribution arrangement；and 2. Application rules of mutual agreement procedure. Moreover, controversies and difficulties may likely to occur in the following areas when applying transfer pricing rules on IP related controlled transactions in Taiwan: 1. Lack of comparable uncontrolled transactions； 2. The ownership of intellectual property rights； 3. Tax on cooperative R&D；and 4. Difficulties to apply with MAP and APA.

虛擬通路中的交易市場，如網路購物、電視購物、傳真購物、網路ATM、及網路銀行的交易量逐年成長，消費者對虛擬通路的交易安全越來越重視，而銀行業者或商家也運用一些安控機制，如SSL安全機制、晶片卡讀卡機、或動態密碼讀卡機等來降低交易的風險，而目前大部分的虛擬通路金流都是透過智慧卡來完成，如信用卡或金融卡，但其交易模式及交易安全機制存在許多缺點及限制。 本研究探討智慧卡結合新興軟性電子技術，所產生的新應用智慧顯示卡，產製動態密碼，用來改善及取代現有智慧卡的交易模式及安全機制，為虛擬通路交易安全性、及使用便利性等帶來效益。本研究也針對智慧顯示卡應用於虛擬通路交易市場中設計新的交易流程，以提升交易安全，及降低交易的風險，如避免資料遭冒用或遭木馬程式攻擊所可能造成的交易損失。並透過智慧顯示卡的應用，整合及取代虛擬通路交易市場中許多不同的安控機制，且讓消費者使用上更便利。

本文以「資訊公開」為研究的主要架構。資訊公開原則是證券交易制度中廣泛運用的法制精神，而公開說明書則是發行市場中最重要的資訊揭露工具。本文擬藉由公開說明書相關法律責任的探討，比較我國及美國法制的不同；再經由案例的介紹，了解實務運作上對於公開說明書不實之相關爭點的看法，並提出未來修法上的建議以供參考。 本論文之章節架構如下： 一、說明論文之研究背景與目的、研究範圍與方法及論文架構。 二、介紹經濟學中相關資訊公開之理論基礎：資訊不對稱理論及資訊不對稱現象所衍生之逆選擇與道德危機、效率市場假說以及代理理論等等。 三、介紹我國現有之強化資訊公開機制，包括公開資訊觀測站、資訊揭露評鑑制度、財務重點專區的建置、對使用者友善之資訊公開介面等等，以及鼓勵企業自願性揭露並建立完善的檢舉人制度。 四、說明證券交易法中與資訊公開原則相關之法律規定，再將公開說明書之定義及認定標準、公開說明書之功能、應編製公開說明書之情形及公開說明書之內容做詳細之介紹。 五、探討違反交付義務之民、刑事責任、公開說明書主要內容虛偽不實之民、刑事責任及實務案例之探討。 六、綜合以上，提出本文的結論與建議。

利差交易(Carry Trade)是在各種貨幣的利率水平上進行套利的交易以獲得價差收益的交易型態。而利差交易在這幾年創造出諸多研究的方向；利差交易又稱為套息交易，即借入低利率的貨幣，以購買其它高收益的投資工具，如高利率貨幣、股票、或是實物資產等，進而從中賺取其間的利率及匯率差價。諸如債券或國庫券等現貨金融工具所帶來的收益與該項投資的融資成本間的差額。 利差交易多在市場處於穩定低風險狀況下時，才能夠得到穩定的報酬率，因此如何客觀準確的評量目前市場所處的風險狀態，以獲得相對平穩又較佳的收益是主要的研究方向。本研究以如何求得利差交易裡面各項最佳且保持穩定性的參數與指標，假設利差交易可以經由衡量某些風險指標的平均值，並當風險指標低時建立利差交易部位，反之，當風險指標高時結束利差交易，甚至更積極進行反向利差交易，以求達到穩定報酬率的目標。 / Title of Thesis: Empirical Performance of Carry Trade Trading Strategy School/Graduate School: National Chengchi University Executive Master Of Business Administration, Advanced Finance Class – Risk Management and Insurance Group Graduate Student : Lee, Nai-Chun Instructor: Dr. Kang, Jung Pao Thesis Content: Carry trade bases on interest rate differences of many currency pairs to make capital gains and interest income and it creates many research topics in recent years. Carry trade borrows low yield currencies and invests other high yield targets such as high yield currencies, stocks, or real assets to get interest incomes and capital gains from foreign exchange rates. Only when a foreign exchange market is under stable and low-risk conditions, carry trade can achieve stable return rates. Therefore, how to objectively evaluate current market risk situations to get relatively stable and more returns is the main research topic of this thesis. This thesis reports how to get optimal and consistently stable parameters and indicators of carry trade. It assumes that carry trade can build positions by measuring some mean values of risk indicators when risk indicators are low. On the contrary, it ends the trade when risk indicators are high and even actively short carry trade positions to achieve stable return rates. Key words: carry trade、capital gain、exchange rate、risk indicator