3D電腦動畫電影產業在過去十年間的蓬勃發展有目共睹。在台灣，政府所提出的「兩兆雙星」產業政策中，也以「數位內容」產業為「雙星」計畫之一，而「電腦動畫」則列為優先發展的重點項目之一。 本論文以作者多年的國際媒體產業經驗與觀察為主軸，輔以豐富的產業研究資料及分析，探討台灣在發展3D 電腦動畫電影產業時的各項競爭條件。論文架構採用學者波特在國家競爭優勢中所提出的價值鏈及鑽石模型理論，逐一分析台灣在面臨國際競爭時，各項條件的優勢與不足。 要了解好萊塢如何成功地揉合「創意」與「科技」，不斷創造出一部部席捲全球的3D電腦動畫電影，必須先認識好萊塢電影產業的運作基礎。好萊塢有著相當複雜的產業發展背景，時至今日，這些時空背景仍深深地影響著產業的各個層面。本論文先深入剖析好萊塢電影產業的各項價值活動、產業及人力結構、以及電影投資、融資與風險控管等機制。其後，則進一步分析3D電腦動畫產業的版圖現況及發展趨勢，並以三家領導廠商Pixar、DreamWorks Animation、Blue Sky進行個案分析，透過對這三家廠商發展歷程與運作模式的檢視，台灣可以從中學習成功的經驗，並避免重蹈覆轍。 論文最後，則基於以上之論述，提出兩項論點，說明此刻是台灣以3D電腦動畫電影切入國際數位內容產業的良機。第一項論點是現階段仍屬全球3D電腦動畫產業發展初期，新進入者較易跨入此一新興市場；第二項論點則是台灣世界級的資訊產業提供了優勢的競爭基礎，使台灣具有更高的策略位置。因此，台灣可以高科技產業帶動數位內容產業的發展，延續「科技矽島」的成功經驗，再創「Silicon Hollywood：矽谷+好萊塢」的國家新競爭優勢。 / The 3D feature computer animation industry has grown tremendously in the past 10 years. In Taiwan, the government has identified the “digital content” industry as one of the two rising stars in the “Two Trillions, Twin Stars” national industry development plan, with “computer animation” as its top development priority. Based on the author’s years of observation and experience in international media and business, with abundant industrial research and statistical data, this thesis discusses Taiwan’s competitive advantages in the development of a globally competitive 3D feature computer animation industry. This thesis also refers to Michael Porter’s “Competitive Advantages of Nations”, which uses the Diamond Model to identify a nation’s weaknesses and strengths in the global economy. To realize how Hollywood can successfully combine creativity and technology to create box-office 3D computer animated movies, it is wise to consider how Hollywood fundamentally works. Hollywood is a complicated machine fed by its rich background and history that currently affects every facet of its behavior. This thesis breaks down that behavior into sections that detail topics such as value chain activities, modern industrial and labor structure setup, film financing and risk management. Three leading computer animation studios are Pixar, DreamWorks Animation, and Blue Sky. After understanding how the Hollywood film industry works, the next logical topic to examine is how these studios relate globally with the international 3D feature animation industry’s landscape and development trend. Using these studios as case studies, examining their timeline of development and work methodologies, important lessons can be learned and previous pitfalls avoided as Taiwan takes its first steps towards establishing its own successful 3D computer animation industry. Upon its analysis, this thesis identifies two strong reasons that justify why now is the time for Taiwan to establish its 3D computer animation industry as a means to compete in the global digital content market. The first reason is because the current global landscape of the 3D feature animation industry is just past its infancy and in an early stage of development, making it easier for new entries into the market. The second reason is because Taiwan has the advantage of having a strong resource in its world-leading IT industry that provides strong leverage above the competition. Taiwan is already world famous for being a technologically strong “Silicon Island”. By creating a bridge between technology and creativity, Taiwan can emulate its previous success model and thus create a new international identity as the “Silicon Hollywood”.

文化創意產業乃近年來政府所大力推動的重點產業，儘管文化究係一種「服務」或「產業」，爭議頗多，然而睽諸世界先進國家，如英國設有事權統一之文化媒體體育部(The Department of Culture, Media and Sport)職司全英文化政策之擬訂，並以發行彩券部份收入，鼓勵新穎多元之創作；再如丹麥政府早就發現企業界和文化界的語言渾然不同，發現國家需要教育課程來訓練學生如何經營文化事業，這包括建立對整個產業的知識，能夠斡旋協調、解決衝突，並擁有處理預算、智慧財產權、合約及版稅的能力，於是當務之急，是希望商學院可以把注意力多放在文化界的發展潛力上，增加相關主題、課程和所謂「第三級教育」的訓練；澳洲則就文化產業核心，從精英藝術與社區藝術之論述，進一步發展到休閒與娛樂；其文化態度，亦跳脫文化公民權之爭論，邁入文化消費期。凡此種種，皆從發展文化創意「產業」之角度，作為施政方針。 　　反觀台灣文化創意產業之經營環境日益艱困，至今未有事權統一之「文化部」，文化創意政府分工上，教育部獨置身事外以及至今未能建立諸如好萊塢的「完工保證」制度以吸引投資者等，因此本研究所欲探討之主題計有四項： 1.文化創意產特質為何？與過去台灣所擅長的製造業的價值鏈、商業模式等，有何不同？ 2.政府政策之制訂與產業界之需求，其緊密度為何？是否尚有政策調整之空間與方向？ 3.文化創意產業之經營者係一「守門人」之角色，此守門人之角色如何整合「線上成本」與「線下成本」中之各個成員角色，在「彈性專業化」的合作關係中，形成一種商業模式？ 4.文化創意人普遍缺乏避險觀念，因此如何「以銷定產」，透過「創業財務」理論，經由「高概念」與「國際分工」募集資金，迴避風險，是為本研究所要深入探討的主題。 / The idea of developing cultural and creative industries has been putting forward by the government in recent years even though the arguments of culture being as a service or an industry remains disputable. However, policymakers in more advanced countries have moved beyond the debate and recognized the importance of the industries at different level: The United Kingdom sets up the Department of Culture, Media and Sport as the solo division in charge of policy formulation. Part of the income from National Lottery is devoted to encourage creation; Being aware of the differences between business professionals and creative talents, Denmark educates students with the know-how of cultural industry management, including the skills of negotiation and conflict solving and the abilities to deal with budget, copyright, contract and royalties. It also urges business schools to enhance entrepreneurial potential by adding more topics, classes and so-called “tertiary education” to their curriculums. Australia, on the other hand, has extended the core value of culture and creative industries from elite and community arts to recreation and entertainment. It has moved from the phrase of debating cultural citizenship into cultural consumption. With reference to the experience of other countries, we can conclude that culture and creativity sectors should be considered as “industries” rather than “services” for policy measures. On contrary, the business environment has become difficult for the cultural and creative sectors in Taiwan. There’s no one single government entity to take account of cul-tural factors and attach greater importance to promoting the development of cultural indus-tries in the course of policy formulation and implementation; Ministry of Education has not partake in studying the vision for development and direction for the industries; Lacking of completion guarantees leaves investors with big doubts and consequently hider the estab-lishment of finance resources. To solve the above-mentioned issues, this research will fo-cus on: 1.The characteristics of cultural/creative industries. How are they different from the value chains and business models of manufacturing that has dominated Taiwan's industrial sector? 2.The gaps between current policies and the real needs of the industries. What can be done to favor the development of the sectors? Any adjustment to make or ap-proach to establish? 3.The role of decision makers in cultural/creative industries as “gatekeepers.” How do they control the above and below the line costs and utilizing the concept of flexible specialization to manage their businesses? 4.The sales and marketing of creative products. Traditionally, creative talents have little knowledge on risk control. How to develop new products or services in the context of existing provision in the market? How to avoid risk and raise money by bringing in the notion of “high concept” and “co-production” in filmmaking?

新經濟體系的來臨，以技術為基礎的新創科技公司如雨後春筍般的出現，這些新創科技公司的價值已非過去龐大的有形資產，取而代之的是無形資產，如專利權、商標權、著作權、授權契約或公司的研發團隊等，然而傳統的財務報表係儘反映公司過去的財務狀況和經營成果，對於自行研發而非外購的智慧財產權，卻無法認列在財務報表上，使得公司的價值被嚴重低估，有潛力的公司無法獲得所需資金而功敗垂成，十分可惜。 本研究係以實際經營管理的觀點切入，探討以智慧財產權做為融資擔保標的時所會遭遇到的困難為何？再經由所得知的實際困難找出智慧財產權融資所需營運機制和可行之營運模式。 由於智慧財產權融資大部份的風險都處於資金供給方，因此融資可行與否大致上都決定於資金供給者必須在那些條件具備的情況下才願意接受以智慧財產權做擔保的融資模式，因此本研究主要探討的問題從資金供給者的角度出發，主要研究的資金供給對象為國內銀行和創業投資公司。 透過次級文獻蒐集、集體焦點訪談、個別訪談和郵寄問卷等方法得到主要發現如下： 一、國外智慧財產權融資尚在起步階段，且西方國家與東方國家有關智慧財產權的營運模式皆不盡相同。 二、國內缺乏智慧財產權融資實際個案，雖然有關智慧財產權融資擔保有其基本法源可茲適用，但相關配套法規欠缺。 三、國內創業投資公司多以整體性評估新創科技公司，除少數新創科技公司（如生物科技公司）外，智慧財產並非單一關鍵性考量因素。 四、智慧財產權融資模式對創業投資公司有其間接性影響，其中有關鑑價機制和技術交易市場為創業投資公司所關切重點。 五、國內傳統銀行以利差為主要獲利來源之營運特性使智慧財產權融資高風險之融資形式不易為銀行所接受。 六、銀行本身缺乏智慧財產權鑑價能力和管理能力，此為銀行承做智慧財產權融資首要解決之務。 七、銀行傾向以政府保證的方式來進行智慧財產權融資，以降低本身所承擔風險。 八、以目前整體的環境而言，智慧財產權融資在智慧財產權觀念上、鑑價機制、管理能力、交易市場和法令規範等方面有著許多實行上的困難有待解決。 由以上可知智慧財產權融資以目前各方面的環境而言具有高風險性，其可行性的營運模式建議分為短期和長期來看： 一、初期營運模式： 1、初期政府可用保證基金的形式來分散資金供給者的風險。 2、初期可先透過國外的鑑價機制和交易市場來進行。 二、遠期營運模式： 建立具有國際化的鑑價機構和交易市場，根據「契約自由化」原則，只要交易雙方對於契約內容達成一致性的決議，則交易即可完成，以促進自由市場高流動性的運作。 關鍵字：智慧財產權融資、新創科技公司、創業投資公司、銀行、鑑價機制、技術交易市場、信用保證基金、關鍵要素。 / By the coming of the new economy, high-tech start-ups are mushrooming like bamboo shoots after a spring rain. The value of high-tech start-ups does not base on hard assets, but of their principal assets. The principal assets contain both the intangible assets and intellectual property right (IPR), such as patent, trademark, copyright, license contract as well as R&D team. However, traditional financial statements record only the past financial profile and operating results of companies. They've invested large amount of money on R&D, and therefore, to obtain the IPR. But the right obtained can not be shown on the financial statements. As a result, a large number of high-tech start-ups are underestimated, and unfortunately, most of the potential high-tech start-ups were not able to survive due to the inability to find the fund needed. From the view of the practical operating management, this study discusses problems that should be confronted when operating the financing IPR. Moreover, according to the problems found, the study anticipates by offering the operating mechanism and feasible business models for financing IPR. As we know, the majority of risk lies in the fund suppliers when financing IPR, so mostly the feasibility of financing IPR depends on fund suppliers that will receive IPR as collateral under a certain number requirements possessed. Thus, the study will then offer suggestions mainly in terms of fund suppliers, and the focus will be on domestic banks and venture capitalists. Based on the literature review, group focus interview, individuall interview, posted survey and so on are conducted for the study. Some of insights are derived as bellow: 1. For overseas countries, the financing IPR is just at the beginning period. There are differences in the business models of financing IPR between western countries and eastern countries. 2. There are few real cases about financing IPR in Taiwan although there are some basic laws to apply for financing IPR. Nevertheless, more related regulations are needed. 3. Most of the venture capitalists evaluate high-tech start-ups in an overall way. Hence, excluding a small numbers of high-tech start-ups such as bio-tech companies, IPR is not the only key evaluation factor. 4. The model of financing IPR has an indirect influence to venture capitalists. They emphasize more on the valuation mechanism and the technology marketplace. 5. The profit of traditional banks in Taiwan comes from the interest. From the conservative operating system, these banks are hard to accept the financing IPR that is with high risk. 6. The domestic banks are in short of the IPR valuation and IPR management capabilities. Thus, these problems should first be solved, and then the financing IPR will be able to be taken into action. 7. The domestic banks are in favor of reducing risk by getting guarantee from the government. 8. In terms of the whole financial environment in Taiwan, there are lots of difficulties in the concepts of IPR, valuation mechanism, management capability, technology marketplace, laws and decrees and so forth to be confronted. Above all, financing IPR has high risk in Taiwan at the moment. Therefore, this paper recommends that feasible business models of financing IPR should be divided as follow: 1. Short-run business model: (1) Diversify the risk of the fund suppliers from the guarantee fund offered by the government. (2) Finance IPR by foreign valuation mechanism and technology marketplace. 2. Long-run business model: First, more efforts should be put to set up our own international valuation institutions and technology marketplace. Second, the financing IPR should be taken by contract liberalization principle in compliance with the mechanism of the free market. When both sides agree to the contract, then the deal will be done. By doing so,the IPR financing will be highly promoted at the same time. Key words: Financing IPR, High-tech Start-ups, Venture Capitalists, Domestic Banks, Valuation Mechanism, Technology Marketplace, Credit Guarantee Fund, Key factors.

本文針對躉繳保費的附保證變額壽險進行評價，保單形式為生死合險，假設投保人可將期初的投資金額連結到兩種投資標的：股價指數及債券型基金，並以BGM模型描述利率的動態過程，然後分別計算不含解約權及含解約權的附保證變額壽險躉繳保費，進而求算出隱含在保單中的保證價值和解約權價值。針對含解約權的附保證變額壽險，以Longstaff and Schwartz(2001)提出的最小平方蒙地卡羅法處理解約的問題。最後，我們求算不同年齡下的男性保費，並且在投資比例、起始最低保證、最低保證給付成長率、針對解約的保證給付成長率和第一個允許的解約時點變動下，分別討論對於保證價值和解約權價值的影響。 結果顯示：(1)當起始最低保證給付等於期初投資金額時，投資在股票的比例越大，越能凸顯保證價值和解約權價值佔保費的比重。以30歲男性為例，保證價值佔不含解約權之附保證變額壽險的比例，由全部投資在債券型基金的0.03%，成長到全部投資在股票的13.86%；而解約權價值佔含解約權之附保證變額壽險的比例，由全部投資在債券型基金的0.05%，成長到全部投資在股票的9.12%。(2)投資比例、起始最低保證給付和最低保證給付成長率越大，保證價值越高。(3)起始最低保證給付和針對解約的保證給付成長率越大，解約權價值越大；而最低保證給付成長率和第一個允許的解約時點越大，解約權價值越小。(4)投資比例隨著最低保證給付不同對解約權價值有不同的影響。 關鍵字：附保證變額壽險、BGM利率模型、解約選擇權、最小平方蒙地卡羅法 / This study emphasizes on the pricing of variable life insurance with minimum guarantees. As an endowment policy in a single premium form, in this paper, it is assumed that the insured can distribute the initial investment amount into two underlying assets: the stock index fund and bond fund. Simulating the interest rate under a BGM model, computational procedures are performed for the single premium of the variable life insurance policy without surrender option and embedding a surrender option, and further, the guarantee value and surrender value embedded in the insurance policy. For the variable life insurance policy embedding a surrender option, the Least Square Monte-Carlo method proposed by Longstaff and Schwartz (2001) is applied to solve the surrender conditions. Finally, we calculate the premium for a male at different ages, and respectively analyze the variations of the guarantee value and surrender value under the influence of the investment portfolio, the initial minimum guaranteed amount, the growth rate of the minimum guarantee, the growth rate of the minimum guarantee for surrender and the first permitted surrender time. The results show that: (1) when the initial minimum guaranteed amount equals the initial investment amount, higher proportion invested in stock will result in larger percentage of the guarantee value and surrender value to total premium. Take a 30-year old male as an example: the percentage of guarantee value to the premium of variable life insurance with minimum guarantee and without a surrender option, which is 0.03% when the initial investment amount thoroughly goes to bond fund, rises up to 13.86% with the entire amount invested in stock index fund. Likewise, the percentage of surrender value to the premium of variable life insurance with minimum guarantee and surrender option is 0.05% with total amount invested in bond fund, while it is 9.12% with the entire amount invested in stock index fund. (2) The higher proportion invested in stock, the initial minimum guaranteed amount and the growth rate of minimum guaranteed amount, the larger guarantee value. (3) Larger initial minimum guaranteed amount and the growth rate of the minimum guaranteed amount for surrender would contribute to a higher surrender value. The higher growth rate of the minimum guaranteed amount and the first permitted surrender time, the lower surrender value. (4) The influence of the investment portfolio to surrender value depends on the initial minimum guaranteed amount. Key words: Variable life insurance with minimum guaranteed amount, BGM interest rate model, surrender option, least squares Monte Carlo approach.

本研究探討長期投資人之最適資產配置問題，並著重於通貨膨脹風險之分析。第一部份討論確定提撥退休金制度下，機構投資人或高所得自然人如何擬定投資策略規避通貨膨脹風險，達到極大化期末財富效用期望值。此研究擴展Battocchio與Menoncin (2004)所建構資產模型，不僅探討市場風險，亦考量通貨膨脹不確定性與基金費用誘因、下方風險保護兩機制，研究對資產配置行為之影響，並依動態規劃方法求得投資策略公式解。第二部份則強調下方風險之重要性，檢視在最低保證收益下，長期投資人跨期資產配置之財富管理議題，並回顧Deelstra et al.(2003)之模型架構，依平賭方法求得投資策略公式解，研究結果顯示基金投資策略可表示為最適CRRA(γ,T)型態共同基金與最低收益避險之組合。另一方面，如何估計通貨膨脹風險亦為本文強調之重點。Campbell和Viceira (2001)首次納入通貨膨脹風險並探討跨期投資議題，結論市場缺乏通貨膨脹連動投資標的時，投資人將減碼長期債持有比例。Brennan和Xia (2002)假設通貨膨脹率服從Ornstein-Uhlenbeck過程，結論投資人之避險需求隨持有債券到期日與投資期限改變。但以上結論未將通貨膨脹學習機制納入模型，因此，在第三部份提出依學習機制修正之投資策略可顯著增加財富效用，並分析在不同參數設定下，學習機制對於期末財富效用之影響。 / In this study, we study three essays of asset allocation problem for long term investors, which means that in this discourse we emphasis the importance of inflation risk. In the first topic, we derive the dynamic optimal investment strategy of the defined contribution pension schemes which include two mechanisms of partial floor protection and incentive fees and their benchmarks. We find investors should hold high proportion of stock index fund to hedge the inflation risk; moreover, the ratio of incentive fees to the setting of benchmark will change the optimal investment trend of underlying assets. In the second topic, we introduce the optimal investment portfolio with minimum guarantees and show that the fund manager should adjust the optimal weights of underlying assets with the ratio of the guarantee fund's value to the value of fund. Finally, this work focuses on how to precisely predict the dynamics of inflation rate. We apply learning method to adjust the prediction of inflation process and we use numerical analysis to study the effect of learning mechanism under different parameter setting.

隨時代不斷變遷演進，人民對政府之期許與要求與日俱增，是故，為了因應此項趨勢，各國無不致力於行政改革，推動政府再造，爰採取師法企業的途徑，試圖以顧客至上、服務為先、品質第一•••等概念來改造公部門組織及其服務品質，而ISO即是近來公部門師法企業所興起的另一股管理風潮。 所謂ISO，乃是國際標準組織(International Organization for Standardization)之簡稱)，其成立於1946年，迄今，ISO 9000系列標準已成全球品質管理一大主流，有人稱之為「ISO 9000 風尚」、ISO 9000 奇觀」，它的影響既深且廣，儼然成為企業改造的基礎並在企業界蔚為一股時代之風潮。 我國為提升國家競爭力，提升行政效率與服務品質，爰引進企業管理精神，導入 ISO 9000 系列國際標準品質保證制度，冀透過此制度之實施，進一步提升公部門之服務品質並重塑公部門新形象。 由於國內公部門推行ISO 9002品保制度尚處於起步階段，對於此新風潮，普遍不甚了解，惟跨世紀公務員乃面臨不斷的變遷與改變，實應體認須建立新的學習觀，俾能回應民眾之所需。是故，冀透過本文就ISO相關重要理論與文獻之探討，並透過SWOT策略分析及個案分析，歸納出公部門推行ISO 9002之成功關鍵因素及所面臨之挑戰與限制，最後並提出結論與建議，冀能對公部門、行政學者及後續研究者能有所貢獻。

本論文研究在於一行動計算網路上建構一個具有服務品質保障之以代理人為基礎的服務系統以提供用戶及行動代理人的行動能力管理。此研究主要的貢獻可分為以下三方面： (1) 提出行動能力管理機制，使行動用戶能以單一用戶ID漫遊於不同的網路上 (2) 提出行動代理人行動能力管理機制，幫助系統搜尋一已派遣出之代理人以加強對代理人的管理 (3) 提出一個「以代理人 (Agent) 為基礎之有服務品質 (QoS) 保障的管理架構」以支援行動代理人及行動用戶之行動能力的管理，並確保服務品質 在本論文中，我們將探討如下的研究課題： (1) 對行動用戶之行動能力的管理 (A) 多個廣域網路管理中心架構 (B) 用戶行動能力與網路通訊時間之分析 (C) 訂定欲註冊之GNMC、LNMC選擇策略 (D) 行動用戶移動時的註冊及註銷策略 (E) 對行動用戶之位置的定位及追蹤 (F) 使用暫存器記錄以提昇用戶位置追蹤的效率 (2) 對行動代理人之管理 (A) 對行動代理人之多種搜尋策略 (B) 於每次搜尋時，移除最多之代理人不可能停留之主機的個數 (C) 預測代理人位於某一特定主機的機率 (D) 動態轉換搜尋策略的機制 (E) 計算搜尋某一代理人所需拜訪之主機的期望個數 (F) 搜尋時配合代理人監聽的機制 (3) 設計及建構一「有服務品質保障之以代理人為基礎的服務系統」 (A) 系統架構 (B) 定義代理人服務系統中每一元件之功用及實作細節 (C) 代理人管理機制 (D) 服務品質表示方法 (E) 有服務品質保障之服務 / In this research, we study the issues of building a QoS agent-based service system in managing client mobility and agent mobility for mobile computing network. Our major contribution is classified into the following three categories: (1) Propose sets of client mobility management strategies to support clients roaming on different networks (2) Propose mobile agent search strategies to manage mobile agent mobility (3) Propose a QoS agent-based management architecture to manage clients and agents mobilities; and provide service to clients with QoS guarantee. The details are elaborated as follows: (1) Mobile client mobility management (A) Multiple GNMCs Architecture (B) Modeling client mobility behavior and network communication time (C) Criteria of choosing GNMC and LNMC for registration (D) Registration and de-registration strategies of mobile clients (E) Location tracking of mobile clients (F) Location tracking with cache policy (2) Mobile agent mobility management (A) Search strategies for mobile agents (B) Maximizing number of excluded servers in each probe (C) Estimating the residing probability that an agent resides in a server (D) Dynamic switching agent search policy (E) Evaluating the expected probing number when searches an agent (F) Agent search with listening agent (3) Design and implement a QoS agent-based service system (A) An proposed agent system architecture (B) Functionalities and implementation details of the system components (C) Agent manager design details (D) User QoS assignment and mapping to system QoS (E) Service with QoS guarantee

因預售屋交易具有交易標的不可預見性、多重複雜法律關係等特性，故於實務上常引發諸多爭訟，本文針對預售屋交易依下列主題進行深入研究： 一、解析預售屋交易型態 　　傳統的預售屋交易模式，契約當事人主要為建商與消費者，並以此為中心，對外與地主、貸款銀行、代銷公司及營造廠等產生連結，本文將整理分析學說及實務判決之相關見解，藉以對預售屋交易契約為定性，並與鄰近日本地區之預售屋交易模式進行比較研究。又自信託法公布後，實務上建商為因應融資銀行之要求，於預售屋交易機制上引入信託架構，對原有法律關係架構產生如何之影響與變化，並檢討信託機制對消費者權益保障之實質助益。 二、案例紛爭類型化與司法審查之檢討 　　為瞭解預售屋之實際糾紛，藉由蒐集整理法院案例，將常見紛爭歸納為「審閱期間」、「廣告不實」、「面積與找補爭議」及「房屋瑕疵與拒絕給付價金」四大類型，分析相關判決對各爭點之法律見解，並檢討法院判決能否有效發揮司法審查之作用，以期未來在進行預售屋交易時能避免並預防類似之訟爭再度發生。 三、定型化契約條款之規制 　　我國對預售屋定型化契約條款之行政管制，主要以內政部所公告「預售屋買賣定型化契約應記載及不得記載事項」，作為企業經營者與消費者訂定契約之依據。惟隨著實行後仍發生諸多預售屋交易糾紛，因而分別於98年及99年二度修正，故本文將以新修正之應記載事項及不得記載事項內容為討論範圍，且針對修正後條款如履約保證機制等規定，在實務運作上恐將發生之爭議問題為探討，進而提出再修正之建議。 四、新型態使用權銷售之探討 　　隨著多元化之發展，預售屋銷售不再僅侷限於傳統預售房屋所有權之概念，亦發展出地上權房屋、使用權房屋之案例，本文擬以實際建案「京站使用權」為研究對象，分析使用權產生之背景，探討其交易架構、當事人間之法律關係及契約條款內容，以比較與傳統預售屋銷售之差異處，並深究消費者面對此種新型態預售屋時應注意之相關事項，另新型態預售模式中所採行之交易機制，可否採行適用於傳統之預售屋交易型態。 五、預售屋安全交易機制之再建構 　　最後藉由歸納分析上述各項議題，考量預售屋交易特性所產生之交易風險，擬由價金返還保障與建立續建機制之角度，提出預售屋安全交易機制之再建構。又基於實務上建商常使用顯失公平之定型化契約條款，而有加以導正之必要，將從司法審查與行政規制之面向，針對現有常見之糾紛類型，評析既存判決之適法性及妥當性，並對預售屋定型化契約應記載事項及不得記載事項之內容，提示具體之修正條款，達到加強消費者安全保障之目的，以期能尋求契約自由與消費者保護間之衡平。

附最低保證投資型保險商品的特色在於無論投資者的投資績效好壞，保險金額皆享有一最低投資保證，過去關於此類商品的研究皆假設標的資產為單一資產，或依固定比例之投資組合，並沒有考慮到投資人自行配置投資組合的效果，但大部分市售商品中，投資人可以自行配置投資標，此情況之下，保險公司如何衡量適當的保證成本即為一相當重要之課題。 本研究假設投資人風險偏好服從冪次效用函數，並假設與保單所連結之投資標的有兩種資產，一為具有高風險高報酬的資產，另一為具有低風險低報酬之資產，在每個保單年度之初，投資人可以選擇配置在兩種資產之比例，我們運用黃迪揚(2009)所提出的動態規劃數值解之方法，計算出在考慮投資人自行配置資產之下，保證成本將會比固定比例之投資高出12個百分點。 此外，為了瞭解在不同資產報酬率的模型之下，保證成本是否會有不一樣的結論，除了對數常態模型之外，我們假設高風險資產與低風險資產服從ARIMA-GARCH(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average-Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedastic )模型，並得到較高的保證成本。 / The main characteristic of variable annuities (VA) with minimum benefits is that the benefit will be guaranteed. Previous literatures assume a specific underling asset return process when considering the guaranteed cost of VA; but they do not consider the portfolio choice opportunity of the policyholders. However, it is common for policyholders to rebalance his portfolio in many types of VA products. Therefore it’s important for insurance companies to apply an approximate method to measure the guaranteed cost. In this research, we assume that there are two potential assets in policyholders’ portfolio; one with high risk and high return and the other one with low risk and low return. The utility function of the policyholder is assumed to follow a power utility. We consider the asset allocation effect on the guaranteed cost for a VA with guaranteed minimum withdrawal benefits, finding that the guaranteed cost will increase 12% compared with a specific underling asset. The model effect of the asset return process is also examined by considering two different asset processes, the lognormal model and ARIMA-GARCH model. The solution of dynamic programming problem is solved by the numerical approach proposed by Huang (2009). Finally we get the conclusion which the guaranteed cost given by the ARIMA-GARCH model is greater than the lognormal model.

房屋貸款保證保險制度可移轉部分違約風險予保險公司。然而，保險公司與金融機構在共同承擔風險之際，因房貸保證保險制度之施行，於提高貸款成數後，產生違約風險提高之矛盾現象；而估計保險之預期損失時，以目前尚無此制度下之違約數據估計損失額，將有錯估之可能。 本研究以二元邏吉斯特迴歸模型(Binary Logistic Regression Model)與存活分析(Survival Analysis)估計違約行為，並比較各模型間資料適合度及預測能力，進而單獨分析變數-貸款成數對違約率之邊際機率影響。以探討房貸保證保險施行後，因其對借款者信用增強而提高之貸款成數，所增加之違約風險。並評估金融機構因提高貸款成數後可能之違約風險變動，據以推估違約率數據，並根據房貸保證保險費率結構模型，計算可能之預期損失額，估算變動的保險費率。 實證結果發現，貸款成數與違約風險呈現顯著正相關，貸款成數增加，邊際影響呈遞增情形，違約率隨之遞增，而違約預期損失額亦同時上升。保險公司因預期損失額增加，為維持保費收入得以支付預期損失，其保險費率將明顯提升。故實施房屋貸款保證保險，因借款者信用增強而提高之貸款成數，將增加違約機率並對保險費率產生直接變動。 / Mortgage insurance system may transfer part of the default risk to insurance companies. However, the implementation of mortgage insurance system, on increasing loan to value ratio, the resulting increase default risk. And literatures estimate the expected loss without the default data, there will be misjudge. Our study constructs the binary logistic regression model and survival analysis to estimate the mortgage default behavior, and compare the data between the model fit and the predictive power. Analyzes the effect of loan to value ratio on the marginal probability of default rate. Furthermore, assess the financial institutions in the risk of default due to loan to value ratio changes. According to the estimated default rate data, we employ the mortgage insurance rate structural model to calculate the expected amount of loss and the changes in premium rates. Empirical results found loan to value ratio have a significant positive effect on borrowers’ default. Loan to value ratio increase, the marginal effect progressively increase, along with increasing default rates and expected default losses. Due to the ascendant expected loss, insurance companies increase premiums to cover the expected loss, the premium rate will be significantly improved. Therefore, the implementation of mortgage insurance, credit enhancement for the borrower to improve loan to value ratio, will increase the probability of default and insurance rates.