企業往往會利用財務活動之變更，或是權衡性會計項目之操縱，來達到美化帳面盈餘之目的。而「銀行業」更因其產業特殊性，一直以來這種盈餘管理之幅度均高於其他產業；但是除了產業別之差異會影響盈餘管理程度之外，時間演進所造成的產業環境改變，以及個別企業體「公司治理」優劣程度，亦有可能造成經營階層進行盈餘操縱之動機的強弱差異。 本研究建立銀行業四大財務決策：放款、票券買賣、壞帳費用提列以及股利發放之聯立方程式，並使用台灣地區36家上市櫃商業銀行的財務報表資料，實證分析上述財務行為間的互動關係。本文首先利用時間面之切割，分析1991-1996、1997-2001年間銀行業盈餘管理程度之差異；其後更利用La Porta et. al.,（1999）所提出的股權偏離概念作為衡量銀行管理當局的道德風險指標，依此檢測「盈餘管理」程度是否因為道德風險的提升而隨之增加。實證結果顯示在1991-1996年間，非操弄性（原始）盈餘越高的銀行，反而會再增加票券買賣利益與降低壞帳費用提列，進一步提高營業利益；然而，原始盈餘為負的銀行，損益平滑化的現象顯著。在加入道德風險指標後，可以發現利用票券買賣進行盈餘管理，是銀行界普遍的狀況，而盈餘管理的程度會隨著道德風險的增加而提升，但是原始盈餘為負的銀行則較不傾向利用票券的買賣進行盈餘管理。在壞帳費用提列方面，可以發現銀行普遍利用壞帳費用的提列來進行損益平滑化的動作，但是道德風險之差異卻對原始盈餘為負的銀行之影響較為明顯。

This paper investigates the liquidity and the bid-ask spread components of the Taiwan Stock Exchange Capitalization Weighted Stock Index futures contracts, Taiwan Stock Exchange Electronic Sector Index futures contracts, and Taiwan Stock Exchange Banking and Insurance Sector Index futures contracts traded on the Taiwan Futures Exchange, which switched from an electronic periodic call auction market to an electronic continuous auction market on July 29th 2002. It is a rare opportunity to deeply examine the liquidity and transaction cost components of financial derivatives under different trading mechanisms. Using intraday transaction data of transaction and quotes covering from March 2002 to May 2002 for the old trading mechanism and from October 2002 to December 2002 for the new trading mechanism, liquidity measures and bid-ask spread components are examined before and after the enforcement of the electronic continuous auction mechanism. First, for each type of futures contracts, liquidity measures including bid-ask spread, trading volume, trade number, trade size, volatility, and liquidity ratio are explored to show the multifacet of liquidity. Next, the model of Lin, Sanger, and Booth (1995) is used to decompose the spreads of each product in the two periods. The empirical results show that quote spreads, effective spreads, percentage effective spreads, and dollar-weighted percentage effective spreads of the new system are all significantly lower than those measures in the old system for all of the three types of futures contracts. However, other liquidity measures do not show the same patterns. Overall, improvement of liquidity is found for futures contracts but not very consistent though. Multifacet of liquidity is showed by different measures, although two of these measures, including trade size and trade number, may not be suitable for this study. Moreover, the adverse selection is the most important component in the call auction market, which decreases in the continuous auction market. However, the change of other components, including order processing cost and order persistence, does not demonstrate the same pattern. The results indicate that the electronic continuous auction system protects uninformed traders from being hurt by informed traders. However, we also show that each type of futures contracts has its own specific component structure.

由汽車分期付款買賣坊間車商之定型化契約條款出發，依民法、消保法檢討相關約款之合理、正當性。

投資型商品連動於特定資產，保險人除了面臨原有的核保風險，更需承擔部分的財務風險。傳統保險商品的純保費價格等於其預期損失，而投資型商品的保險給付依據投資標的波動，保險人的預期損失不易估算，傳統精算的評價方法不完全適用於投資型商品。保證最低給付的給付結構使得投資型商品其有選擇權的特質，Brennan與Schwartz(1976)首先利用選擇權定價理論探討附有保證最低給付投資型商品之價值與避險策略，爾後亦有許多文獻以此方向加以著墨，但選擇權定價理論是基於市場為完全市場的假設，保險市場為不完全市場，以完全市場假設之理論評定保險商品之價值實不合理。本為假設保險人面臨的風險為核保風險及財務風險，財務市場為完全市場，保險人可以藉由市場上的各種金融商品建構避險組合規避財務風險；而預期死亡人數與實際死亡人數所產生的核保誤差，保險人無法利用避險組合完全地規避，因此保險市場為不完全市場。 在不完全市場中請求權的價值牽涉投資者主觀的風險偏好，不存在唯一的平賭測度，請求權的價格也不唯一，最適避險策略依請求權的價格調整，所以投資型保險商品的價格不再等於其公平價值，真正的成交價格應落於買賣價差之中。本文引用Mercurio(1996)的結果，利用二次效用函數，以極大化保險人期末財富之效用為目標，建構生存險的合理價格範圍。以二元樹模型描述股票的波動，分別模擬五年、十年及十五年投資型生存險之價差範圍，保險人的風險規避程度、保單期限以及保證金額的高低將影響商品價差範圍的大小。 關鍵字：不完全市場、效用函數，買賣價差、最適避險策略 / Investment-linked life (LIL) insurance policies integrate the attributes from the mutual fund by introducing the investment options to the policyholders and life insurance through the benefit payments shielding the unexpected events of the insured. Since the execution of the implied options depends on the policyholder's health status. Actuarial equivalent principal and non-arbitrage pricing theory are used in evaluating the prices for LIL insurance policies. Brennan and Schwartz (1976) initially employ the option pricing theory in examining the pricing and hedging strategy for LIL insurance policies with minimum guarantees. Most published literatures are focusing on this issue adopting the B-S methodology. Since the values of the LIL policies cannot be replicated uniquely through the self-financing strategies due to underwriting risks of the insurance market. Insurance market does not satisfy the completeness assumptions, Due to lack of a unique martingale measure under market incompleteness, the utility assumption of the policyholder is involved in the pricing issue. Insurance pricing must consider the risk attitude of the investors in the market. Hence the cost the LIL insurance policies are not necessarily equal to the fair market prices. The market value should fall within the range of the bid and ask prices. In this study, we follow the approach in Mercurio (1996) by adopting the quadratic utility function and compute the reasonable range of the prices based on maximizing the terminal health utility function. Binary tree method is used in modeling the asset dynamics. Then the numerical computations are performed using endowment LIL insurance policies with 5, 10 and 15 years of duration. Based on the results, we find that the risk attitude of the policyholder, the policy duration and minimum amounts of the guarantees significantly affect the bid-ask price spread of LIL insurance policies. Keywords: market incompleteness; utility function; bid-ask spread; optimal hedging strategy.

合建契約在我國不動產市場當中，一直占有相當重要的地位。尤其當地主想要在自己所有的土地上擁有房屋，或者擬將舊屋更新時，合建契約就扮演重要的角色。透過合建契約，地主得節省自行建築房屋所必須支出之資金，即可取得房屋所有權；而建商無須支出取得建築土地之龐大資金，避免資金積壓，即可於地主提供之土地上興建房屋。雙方再依據契約所定比例，分配房屋及土地。實務上常見的合建契約類型有很多種，然而大致上可以地主是否以取得房屋所有權為目的為區分標準，如果地主只是提供土地與建商共同經營事業，而於房屋興建完成之後依約定比例分配獲利，並不實際分配房屋，此種合建契約多以「合夥契約」之方式為之，於實務上較少發生爭執，本文即不以此為討論重點。而另一類的合建契約，即地主以取得房屋所有權為其目的，提供土地與建商合建，並且實際獲得分配房屋。此種合建契約之契約類型，以及當事人的權利義務內容、契約條款，在實務上衍生的糾紛甚多，然而較為深入且有體系的的討論卻為數甚少，本論文即以此種合建契約為重心，探討合建契約之功能、契約類型、合建房屋原始所有權人之認定標準，並且建構當事人的權利義務體系、檢視契約條款內容。 在討論合建契約類型與條款內容時，本文將一併探討合建契約與消費者保護法之間的關係。因為在本文討論的合建契約當中，地主以取得房屋所有權為其主要目的，是否得將其視為消費者保護法上所指之消費者，而認合建契約之法律關係屬於消費關係，因此當建商以合建之定型化契約與地主締約時，得以適用消費保護法，採取較為有利於地主之解釋。除此之外，關於合建契約特殊的保證金制度，本文將以實務上的判決為例，討論保證金擔保之內容與目的，以及保證金返還義務與瑕疵擔保之瑕疵修補義務之間，是否得為同時履行抗辯的相關問題。 與合建契約相關另一項特殊的問題，則在於當地主將合建土地所有權移轉予第三人時，建商或者是買受房屋之人，對於土地買受人是否仍然有權繼續使用合建土地，或者成為無權占有，而將遭受拆屋還地、侵權行為損害賠償以及不當得利返還之訴訟。實務上的見解可明顯區分為兩種，一種見解認為合建契約為債權契約，僅具有相對性，因此當合建土地所有權人變異時，新所有權人當然不受合建契約之拘束，建商或房屋買受人即無法主張依據合建契約使用合建土地，其占有自屬無權。另一種見解則認為，合建土地買受人應受合建契約之拘束，因此建商或房屋買受人屬於有權占有，或者認為合建土地買受人權利之行使應受限制，藉此避免拆屋還地等重大影響社會經濟的結果。本文即從這兩個方向，探究其法律上的依據與各種可能的解釋方案，希望能夠達到保障社會上重大經濟利益的目標，避免浪費已投入的大量資源。 關鍵詞：建商 地主 合建契約 權利濫用 消費者保護 定型化契約 債之相對性 誠實信用原則 買賣不破租賃

本篇論文基於市場上所存在的一些交易機制，探討漲跌停前後之股價行為。因為證券市場上存在一些交易規則，例如漲跌停限制、買賣價差、最小升降單位限制、競價制度等，這些交易規則，具有法定的效力，理所當然地會影響投資人的行為。這種以各種交易機制的存在，探討價格形成的過程，就是市場微結構理論之研究範疇。 本篇引用Hausman, Lo, and MacKinlay (1992)所建立之Ordered Probit模型來分析漲跌停前後之股價行為，以個股逐筆交易的價格變動為因變數，而建立因變數為間斷型之分析模型，並以等待撮合時間、交易量、落後期交易價格、買賣價差等經濟變數，來探討個股逐筆交易價格變動的成因。在此同時，鑑於以往研究多假定價量關係為線性，本研究引入非線性的概念，檢定價量之間是否存有非線線性之關係；最後，為使模型更具解釋力，我們引入異質性變異數。 第一章 緒論……………………………………………………………..1 第一節 研究動機……………………………………………..1 第二節 研究目的……………………………………………..7 第三節 研究範圍與限制……………………………………..7 第四節 研究架構與內容……………………………………..8 第二章 文獻回顧……………………………………………………….10 第一節 非同時交易………………………………………….10 第二節 最小升降單位……………………………………….11 第三節 買賣價差…………………………………………….14 第四節 漲跌停限制………………………………………….15 第五節 重要模型回顧…………………………………….…18 2.5.1 Chou(1996)……………………………………..18 2.5.2 Hausman, Lo, and MacKinlay(1992)…………..20 第三章 實證模型設定………………………………………………….25 第一節 資料來源…………………………………………….25 第二節 樣本選取…………………………………………….25 第三節 模型設定…………………………………………….26 3.3.1 價格的變動區間……………………………….26 3.3.2 解釋變數……………………………………….29 3.3.3 條件變異數的型式…………………………….32 3.3.4 價格與成交量之間非線性關係的檢定……….32 第四節 資料處理…………………………………………….33 第四章 實證分析……………………………………………………….36 第一節 模型基本統計分析………………………………….36 第二節 價量非線性關係的檢定…………………………….39 第三節 Ordered Probit模型實證分析……………………….40 第五章 結論與建議……………………………………………………..48 第一節 結論…………………………………………………..48 第二節 建議…………………………………………………..49 參考文獻…………………………………………………………………..50 / This thesis is an application of the market microstructure theory’. In light of some trading mechanisms in our stock market, such as price limit, bid-asked spread, tick size, and auction system, those trading rules would influence the behavior of investors. We want to study the process and outcomes of stock price under those explicit trading rules. We use the Ordered Probit model (Hausman, Lo, and MacKinlay, 1992) to investigate the stock behaviors when it hits price limits. We also use price change as the discrete dependent variable, and time elapsed, trading volume, lag price changes, bid-asked spread as explanatory variables. In order to make the model more explainable, heterogeneity is applied. Moreover, we also want to find out if there is any nonlinear relationship between price change and trading volume.

No description available.

不動產估價一般需採比較法、收益法及成本法等三種方法查估。不動產估價最終估值決定須進行協調(reconciliation)，協調的目的係為完成關聯(correlation)之步驟，就各種方法資料之質量及優缺點進行分析。為使不動產估價對於比較法三件買賣實例，及三種方法估值採賦予權重之決定方式提供量化解釋，本文分別建立比較法內部及三種方法外部權重模型。內部權重部分，買賣實例（市場）比較法一般需蒐集數個比較標的，經調整後之試算價格決定比較價格。國外以數學計算式計算實例權重雖已相當普遍，但目前尚無應用特徵效用模式，解讀實例權重形成與比較標的內部條件之關聯。本文以2007年及2008年地價基準地6,435筆買賣實例建構特徵權重模型，發現比較法買賣實例權重受價格型態、交易日期接近性、是否屬近鄰地區、實例差異百分率絕對值加總、實例比較項目修正數、其他兩個實例相對值等自變數影響顯著。 欲探討成本法估值是否與成交價存在差異，以作為外部權重設定之基礎，本文以北部地區986筆交易案例，由估價人員逐筆以成本法估計成本價格，俾與成交價格比較。發現成本價格有高估之系統性偏誤現象，分量迴歸(quantile regression)分析實證認為成本法並未因屋齡較新之建物有較高精度。另發現房地交易價格愈高、建物單價愈高、總樓層數愈高、移轉樓層愈低、建物面積愈小、建築工期愈長及利潤率愈小者；估值差異愈小。 外部權重分為三部分，首先將估價過程中之諸項因子，以分析階層程序法(AHP)專家問卷，彙整各種方法權重因子；其次，基於最適加權平均模式在於使三種方法估值總誤差最小之觀點，經由數學計算方程式建構2,150筆基準地三種方法標準差及相關係數模型以計算權重。第三、為了瞭解比較估值、收益估值與土地開發分析估值之關聯，本文將2,150筆三種估價方式權重建立聯立模型，以三階段最小平方法(3SLS)進行估計。實證模型系統加權解釋力甚高，且三種方式權重之自變數多符合預期並顯著，顯見三種方式之關聯性。 最後，不動產估價仍需考慮一般因素，如金融海嘯對全球金融及房地產市場，其影響力無遠弗屆，最終估值之決定即需考慮市場景氣對最終估值之影響。為探討對於(不)景氣時是否(低)高估？影響(低)高估與否之影響因素為何？本文以2002年至2004年國內某金融機構對房屋貸款20,532件之估值，以二項式邏輯特(Binary Logit)模型分析。實證結果發現於不景氣時期抵押貸款低估機率提高，景氣時期則無高估現象。綜上，本文以權重模式、估值差異及市場景氣影響探討不動產估價最終估值之形成，於權重模型建構及預測上，非如以往文獻僅對估值預測，而係就權重預測。於加權平均應用上，外生變數之迴歸係數可作為權重設定之參考。本文直接探討最終估值形成之權重核心，冀使估價之客觀性及科學化程度提高。 / Real estate appraisal comprises the sales comparison, income, and cost approaches to value in general. The purpose of reconciliation is to complete the procedure of correlation and analyze the qualitative and quantitative strengths and weaknesses of different approach data. In order to assist quantifiable explanation when weighted average for three comparables in the Sales comparison approach and indicated values from three approaches are applied, this paper constructs internal and external weight models respectively. For internal weight model, this paper examines the correlation between weight and internal attributes of 6,345 sales comparables from land value benchmark in 2007 and 2008 adopting the hedonic price model. The outcome shows the price type, the proximity of transaction date, inside the neighborhood area or not, total gross adjustment as %, numbers of adjustments and the attributes of other two comparables considered in one appraisal are significant on the weight of comparables. To explore whether the cost approach causes bias or not, and make it reference for establishment of external weight model, this paper compares the cost value, appraised by valuers applying the cost approach individually, from a sample of 986 transactions of properties sold in 2007 and 2008 in northern Taiwan, to sale price and finds the cost value is higher than sale price on average. It proves that the reliability of the cost approach is comparatively questionable due to its systematic bias of overestimation. With quantile regression, the outcome shows that the precision of cost value won’t increase for newer buildings. In addition, this paper finds the more the total property sales amount, the higher the unit construction fee, the higher building, the lower story, the smaller area, the longer construction years of properties, and the smaller profit rate; the smaller the bias. There are three parts for external weights. First, AHP expert questionare is adopted to combine weight factor from each approach. Secondly, based on the logic that the best way to assign weights on three appraisal approaches is to get the minimum total error, this paper calculates the standard error and correlation indicators from three approaches using 2,150 land value benchmarks. Thirdly, in order to realize the weights correlation among the sales comparison value, income capitalization value and land development analysis value, this paper builds a model based on the three-stage least squares method simultaneous equation (3SLS). The empirical result shows system weighted R2 is high and most attributes on the weights of three indication of value are significant and are consistent with expected sign, which means the model fit is good and how the weights of three methods correlate. Finally, general factor also needs to be considered in real estate appraisal. For instance, financial tsunami exerts powerful influence on financial and real estate market globally, which makes it necessary to consider real estate cylce influence when seeking the final value. In order to discuss whether the appraisal value of mortgage is smaller (greater) or not when the market is bearish (bullish) and the corresponding factors, this paper collects 20,532 mortgage appraisal value from one bank from 2002 to 2004. With Binary Logit model, this paper finds the probability of lower appraisal is greater in bear market. The outcome confirms two hypotheses of this paper. However, overestimation is not confirmed in bull market. To sum up, this thesis researches the formation of final value of real estate appraisal by discussing weight model, appraisal bias and influence of real estate cycle. For weight model construction and forecasting, this dissertation forecasts weight directly, instead of value like most literature focus. The regression coefficients estimated from factors during the procedure of each approach could serve for reference if weighted average is applied reconciling the value conclusion by valuers. By delving into the core issue of value formation, it hopes to elevate the degree the objectivity and science of real estate appraisal.

台灣近年來隨著國民所得提高與週休二日實施，休閒旅遊已成為現代人生活中必要的調劑，各種新型態之休閒活動應運而生，「海外渡假村會員卡(權)」即為一由國外引進之新興旅遊產品。其係以消費者購買分時渡假權，而得於每年預先固定之時段，利用某特定不動產及其相關設施之休閒類型。由於渡假地點在海外，消費者難以實地瞭解會員權益及服務品質，且可比較的產品亦屬缺乏，較不易獲得正確完整的資訊。加上該產品之銷售，多採取街頭問卷調查等方式來得到消費者個人資料，並以「恭喜中獎」來引誘消費者參加業者所舉辦的說明會，除了長達四、五個小時的推銷攻勢外，並以當天簽約方可享有更優惠價格等促銷手法，促使消費者在對契約內容無所知悉之情形下作出締約之決定。 企業經營者為了銷售方便等因素，對不同之交易相對人適用相同之交易條件，故多預先就契約之內容擬定定型化約款。惟對締約之消費者而言，締約前對於該契約之法律性質及雙方之權利義務常難以獲取資訊，倘企業經營者未就其所擬定之定型化契約於締約前善盡說明義務、或給予消費者充分之審閱期間，消費者多係於未對契約內容有相當程度瞭解之狀態下與業者締約。俟簽訂契約後，發生債務不履行情形時，亦不知如何就契約內容主張權利、救濟。 由於一般民眾對此項產品所涉之權利義務關係及運作方式多未能完全掌握，在部分銷售業者採取不當的行銷手段並使用不公平的定型化契約之情況下，致此類交易頻生紛爭。尤其是渡假村所在地位於國外，消費者對於外國相關法令多屬陌生，不僅締約前欠缺資訊之獲取，締約後如有爭議，更不知如何向業者依法請求損害的救濟。 觀察實務上的訴訟及行政處分案件，發現此類交易主要爭議多在於其銷售手法是否受消費者保護法中訪問買賣之規範所拘束，及其衍生之無條件解約權該如何行使等問題。有鑑於「海外渡假村會員卡(權)」之銷售發生諸多消費糾紛，依照消費者保護法第一條規定：「保護消費者權益，促進國民消費生活安全，提升國民消費生活品質」之意旨，實應對此交易型態之法律性質、契約雙方當事人之權利義務等作進一步之釐清。因此本文擬從我國海外渡假村會員權契約之現況談起，就國內之法律規範及定型化契約範本加以分析，並介紹外國法制之重要規範，與我國法制檢討比較， 再針對此契約類型所衍生出的實務爭議問題，輔以司法實務及學界見解，予以整理、研析，期能藉由檢討行政法制之規定、司法實務之見解，提出相關建議，以避免經濟優勢地位者繼續濫用契約自由，影響消費者權益。

近年來國人晚婚、不婚、晚育或不育的現象持續惡化，衍伸出高齡少子化所帶來之人口結構惡化已是國家安全層次議題。本研究以實證方式探討影響台灣地區生育率之主要因素，並著重住宅價格（房價所得比）、住宅交易數量（建物買賣移轉棟數）及存量（自有住宅率）之變化與總生育率之關聯性。探究近年我國房價變化、持有自有住宅比率及住宅市場之交易活絡程度是否會影響家戶單位生育決策。 研究針對西元2002年至西元2015年間台灣地區20縣市共280筆追蹤資料(Panel data)，在控制時間效果下運用傳統最小平方法、固定效果模型及隨機效果模型對資料進行迴歸分析。研究結果顯示：在考慮生育率落後一期情境下，同時控制時間及區域效果模型中發現：房價所得比與總生育率呈現顯著正相關，建物買賣移轉棟數與總生育率呈現顯著負相關，自有住宅率雖與總生育率為正相關但未達顯著水準。而其他影響總生育率之主要變數：女性受高等教育比率及粗結婚率與總生育率成顯著正相關。失業率與總生育率則為顯著負相關。研究結果可發現，可能由於我國高度自有住宅率之特性，房價上漲帶來之財富效果是導致房價所得比與生育率呈現正向關係之成因。建物買賣移轉棟數與總生育率呈現負向關係，研判來自於家戶購屋初期通常需付出一筆為數不小之頭期款，短期間內將耗用家戶較多經濟資源，進而排擠家戶單位短期生育決策。 / In recent years, more and more Taiwanese tend to marry at a later age, or remain unmarried, or bear children at a later age or not at all. The problems of population aging and low birth rate have led to the worsened population structure, which has become an issue of national security. This empirical study investigated the factors that contributed to the present low birth rate in Taiwan. The study emphasized the relationships between housing price to income ratio, the number of housing transferred, homeownership rate and total fertility rate (TFR). This study also tried to investigate how the aforementioned three factors affect the childbearing decision of family units. The study focused on a panel data set with 280 samples that was collected across 20 cities and counties in Taiwan from 2002 to 2015. Ordinary least squares, fixed effects model and random effects model were used, and time effect are controlled in all models. The results showed that, after controlling for the time and regional effects, the housing price to income ratio had a positive relationship with the lag TFR. The number of building transferred had a negative relationship with the lag TFR. The homeownership rate had an insignificant negative relationship with the lag TFR. Other factors also affected the lag TFR. For example, the ratio of females who received higher education and crude marriage rates had a significant positive effect. The unemployment rate had a significant negative relationship with the lag TFR. The results might imply that, given the high homeownership rate in Taiwan, the rise in housing price increase “wealth effect’’ which is the reason for the positive relationship between housing price to income ratio and lag TFR. The reason for the negative relationship between the number of building transferred and lag TFR could be the huge financial burden of down payment when a family purchases a house. This burden takes out a huge portion from the budget, and therefore family units might decide to delay having children for a short period.