本文主要在探討非線性迴歸模式的推定問題。 首章為導論。敘述線性與非線性迴歸模式的定義及基本假設，討論最小平方推定，並 闡述非線性迴歸模式一般解的特性。 第二章為非線性迴歸模式的解法。討論最陡下降法、線性化法及Marquardt 折衷法， 並舉一實例以說明實際運算的過程。 第三章及第四章分別討論線性及非線性最小平方推定在幾何學上的意義，在樣本空間 及參數空間上探討誤差平方和等值線的特性。 第五章建立一個修正型的羅吉斯成長模式，以討論台灣地區電話需求成長的模式。 第六章為實例分析。以第二章所討論的方法，設計計算機程式，解決一電話非住宅用 戶所佔百分數的迴歸問題。 第七章為結論。對全文整體做一總結。 電子計算機程式及執行結果列於附錄中。

第一章: 緒論。 第二章: 電話調查方法的發展。 第三章: 電話訪問和造府訪問的比較。 第四章: 研究設計。其中包括七節: (一) 資源、 (二) 抽樣、( 三) 問卷、 (四) 訪問、 (五) 分析、 (六) 預算、 (七) 實例與理論的綜合比較。 第五章: 建議與未來展望。 第六章: 結論與檢討。

在電信產業解除管制，開放市場自由競爭的風潮之下，我國電信事業基於規模經濟與爭奪市場占有率的考量，也掀起一波事業結合的風潮，特別是在行動電話業務上，從市場開放至今不過數年的時間，主要的業者已從原來的七家業者，整合成只剩下三家業者。面對電信事業結合的風潮，身為競爭法主管機關的公平會，對於電信事業結合管制所採取的立場為何，是否因為電信事業高度創新與變動的產業特質，而有異於一般傳統產業的思考。特別是目前電信產業仍然受到產業主管機關的高度管制下，公平會如何在結合管制中將產業管制規範納入考量，都值得加以研究。 我國目前對於結合管制的文獻頗多，對於結合管制一般理論的探討已極為詳盡，但具體對電信事業結合管制的研究則尚不多見。本文以我國電信管制法規、結合管制法規與實務為主要研究範圍，在具體對象上則以行動電話產業為中心。在研究取向上首先研究電信相關管制法規、公平交易法的規範內涵，並分析其適用關係。再者，分析目前各項行動通信業務市場結構與結合管制實務，最後以貼近電信事業的產業特性與當前市場現況的方式，針對公平會對電信事業的結合管制實務，提出檢討與建議。在比較法的參考上，將偏重歐盟的立法例與管制實務，但亦兼參考美國電信法規與管制實務。另外本文也針對未來結合審查中可能發生的重要議題，例如新興電信服務與現有電信服務之間的相關市場界定、既有業者是否會在新電信服務市場造成進入障礙等議題，進行較深入的分析與探討，並提出具體建議。

從無線語音通訊(Voice)的日漸普及，以及日益下降的語音ARPU(Average Revenue Per User)的趨勢看來，所有的行動電信營運商(Telecom Operator)都開始在鑽研如何去推動數據的收入(Data Revenue)，以及所謂的加值型服務的利潤，借以廣增收入及營運利潤的提昇。所以如何建立一個正確的『營利模式』成為全世界所有行動電信營運商最關切的焦點之一。 台灣在行動電信數據服務以及加值型服務方面，其實發展得很早，曾經有過兩次相當大而且相當慘痛的失敗經驗。一次是在2000年和信電訊股份有限公司曾經有過引進日本NTT DoCoMo i-mode的慘痛失敗經驗；另外一件是在2003年亞太行動寬頻電信股份有限公司也曾經歷過引進韓國SK Telecom的SKVM數據服務平台技術移轉的失敗經驗。這兩起的案例由於個人都剛好身歷其境，所以印象特別深刻，檢討起來失敗的原因固然很多，但是其中如何去正確建立一個適合台灣的主客觀環境的『營運模式』卻是一個相當值得探討的問題。 手機一直是行動電話產業裡最熱門的話題，從以前的所謂的『大哥大』(AMPS類比式)手機時代，走入今天的第三代行動通訊所謂的3G『智慧型手機』的時代。手機應該算得上是繼PC電腦以來，發展最快，對人類的生活文明最具影響力的產品之一。PC是坐著那邊使用的工具，而手機卻是人們天天帶在身邊，帶著到處跑的『不可或缺的一部分』。有的人每天也許可以沒有去用電腦，但是很多人每天如果沒有手機在身邊的話，那會是一件非常嚴重的事情。手機發展的很快，也愈做愈像一台能夠隨身帶著走的『智囊包』了。不但包辦所有個人週邊的服務，尤其是所謂的『多媒體影音及下載』功能(有人稱之為:「多媒體手機」)，『網際網路』上網及網路週邊的服務功能，甚至所謂的『人對機』、『機對人』、以及『機對機』等未來無比的想像空間的一些功能及發展。所有設計出來的『營運模式』都要先透過手機去呈現在消費者面前，電信營運商也要先去做許多的驗證實驗(Initial Service Launch)以後，再去正式的推到市面上去。然後再從消費者的滿意度指標(KPI)裡去確認這些被建立的『營運模式』是正確的。 本論文就是站在是一個行動電信營運商(Telecom Operator)的立場，從『智慧型手機』的發展角度來探討未來應該如何去正確建立一個『營運模式』來。主要論述點是從國外一些成功的行動電信營運商們的『營運模式』做切入點，再探討一些台灣的第三代行動通訊上所謂的『加值型服務』(Data Service數據服務)一直發展不起來的原因；另外再從『智慧型手機』以及『手機上網』的角度去探索出一些建議，以做為正確建立一個『營運模式』（Business Model）的基礎。本研究著眼於在行動電話傳統以來就以「語音(Voice)」為主要獲利的「營運模式」，在經過「第三代行動通訊」從「建置期」到「營運期」動態競爭市場愈演愈烈的情勢下，行動電話營運商從一個完全「主導的角色」逐漸轉變成一個「中介者的角色」，其「營運模式」的選擇固然會因為各家電信營運商的「財力、物力」；及「可動用的資源」有所差異，但是在「策略」及「營運模式」的釐訂上也有相當大的學問，有時候看人家(國外)的成功，及複製人家的「成功關鍵因素」並不見得就會「一定成功」的。重要的是要能在「不同的競爭環境」下，以及「艱困險惡的競爭態勢裡」，要能「看得到別人沒看到的市場」商機，要能「把握到每一個轉折的時間點」，然後將「有效的資源集中的投下去」，勝利成功是必然的。 本研究主要的結論包括： 1. 第三代行動通訊數據服務及加值型應用服務之營運模式(Business Model)與傳統的電信服務以voice語音為主的營運模式有顯然的不同點，無法以現有的營運模式來經營數據服務及加值行應用服務。但是採行「老二主義」(也就是所謂的「跟隨主義」)在第三代行動通訊市場動態競爭環境下是可行的策略之一。（本研究案例--日本KDDI及亞太行動即為其例） 2. 傳統以「語音」為主的「營運模式」與「數據服務及加值型應用服務」為主的「營運模式」差異點為以語音為主的營運模式其主要在於對語音服務的『資費價格』(Rate price)做調制，就會對市場及競爭者產生影響力，而且這些調制的主控權是可以完全操控於營運商的掌控中的。對數據及數據加值型應用服務營運模式來說，電信營運商必須退居於「中介者」的角色，以撮合各個價值鏈的「供應商」們一起來，創建「最高的客戶價值」，並從這些撮合的過程中分得應有的利潤。(本研究案例--日本NTT DoCoMo i-mode) 3. 本研究案例是以國內行動電話，一個已完全競爭的市場裡，以一個後進者(本研究案例公司—亞太行動）開始進入市場，在幾經仔細觀察競爭者的動態後，終於發現了一個「競爭者忽略的市場空間」；以及「競爭者沒有發現的市場空間」，然後再以「更便宜的產品」切入市場，終於勝出於市場。 4. Apple繼iPOD及iTune成功之後，以一個在Music Download世界裡，完全以提供消費者Content內容服務的角度。另外，Google也以一個提供消費者全方位Internet網際網路服務的角度，雙雙切入「智慧型手機」市場，甚至於「整個的行動電話市場」，確實帶給整個手機市場無比的震撼。本研究發現iPhone也好，Google Phone也好，都是從消費者使用行動電話的角度，利用「開放型營運模式」去切入市場。這與傳統行動電話營運商，採完全「封閉型營運模式」有顯著的不同。到底「開放型營運模式」與「封閉型營運模式」最後誰會勝出呢？ 5. 數據產品的營運模式與傳統以語音為主的營運模式不同，語音產品受「價格調制」的影響很大，而價格的調制是完全掌控在行動電話營運商手中的；但是，數據產品的使用量必須經過「學習」、「認知」、「確認」及「喜好」等過程才能逐漸增加它的使用量，而這些過程中的因素變動並非完全掌控於行動電話營運商手中，因為行動電話營運商在數據產品市場中扮演的角色是「中介者」撮合的角色。本研究發現數據產品的初期投資較高，但是同質性高，容易在上述過程中被市場淘汰，但是一旦其中有一項產品能成功的在競爭的市場裡存活下來，其他同質產品的失敗都會因為這項成功的產品而能於短期內回收回來。所以數據產品必須要採「多路徑投入」方式之營運模式。 成功的數據產品，其營運模式所營造出來的利潤，都是在所謂的「長尾期」。正如同「i-mode」的母親：松永真理小姐所說的：「追求wants而非追求needs」，「我們想做一個連自己母親都能夠輕易操作的服務」等等，這些原則或信念，看似無甚高論，但卻是市場、行銷、消費的原理。而松永真理之於「i-mode」的可貴之處正在於，她去除了高科技產業的「不可親」性格，她把高科技產品拉回到人性面、市場面來處理。她看到了連結於高科技產品與市場間的「niche」。 最後歸根結底，一個數據產品的「營運模式」被成功的碩造出來，其實是來自於「不懂科技」、來自於「原創性」、來自於「生活化」、來自於「人性」、「自然」及「生活中不斷的那種來自於心靈深處的創新思維」。 / From wireless voice communications growing popularity, as well as declining voice ARPU (Average Revenue Per User) of the trends, all of the operations of telecommunications operators have begun to study how to promote the income data (Data Revenue), as well as the so-called value-added services to profit, in order to widely by income and operating profit improved. So how to create a correct 『Profitable Business Model』 as the world's telecom operators all actions focus of most concern. Taiwan in the operation of telecommunications data services, as well as value-added services, in fact, the development of very early, there have been two very large and very painful experience of failures. One was in 2000 and the KG Telecom Co., Ltd. had introduced Japan NTT DoCoMo i-mode failure of the painful experience; another in 2003 Asia Pacific Broadband Wireless Co., Ltd. has experienced through the introduction of SK Telecom of South Korea SKVM data services platform technology transfer failures. The two cases are just for personal involved, so was particularly impressed to review with a lot of reasons for the failure of course, but how to correct for the establishment of a right 『Business Model』to fit Taiwan's subjective and objective environment is a very worth exploring problems. Mobile Handset has been the mobile phone industry's hottest topics, from the previous so-called 『Big Brother』AMPS analog phone era into today's third generation mobile communications (3G) so-called 『Smart Phone』3G era. Mobile phones should be considered following the PC computer has been the fastest growing of civilized human life the most influential one of the products. PC is sitting side-use tools, and mobile phones are necessarily carried it every day, with around an integral part of you. Some people did not go a day may be able to use computers, but many people every day if there is no Mobile phone in the side, it would be a very serious matter. Mobile phone development soon, but also more like to do more one can carry away 『a think, smart-tank pack』. Not only do all individuals of the surrounding services, especially the so-called audio-visual and multimedia 『download function (some call it: 『Multimedia Mobile phone』，Internet surrounding、the Internet and network service functions, and even the so-called 『People to Machine』, 『Machine to People』, as well as 『Machine to Machine』 『next great imagination, such as some of the features of space and development. All designed 『Business Model』 must first go through a cell phone in front of consumers, telecom operators have also done a lot of verification experiment (Initial Service Launch) after the formal go to the market to go. And then from the consumer's satisfaction indicators (KPI) where these have been established to confirm the 『Business Model』 is correct. In this paper, is standing on is a mobile telecommunication Mobile Operators position, from 『Smart phone』 development perspective to explore how the future should be the correct 『Business Model』 of the establishment. The main discussion points from a number of successful operations abroad carrier's 『Business Model』 make an entry point, and then explore some of Taiwan's third-generation mobile communication; so-called 『Value-added Services』(Data Services) has been developed with not that much successful by now the reasons; additional from 『Smart phone』and 『Mobile Internet』 perspective to explore a number of recommendations to serve as the correct Business Model of the establishment basis. This study focused on the mobile phone which traditionally has been to 『Voice』 as the main profit "Business Model", after "third-generation mobile communications" from the "build phase" to "the service and operational period" become increasingly dynamic and competitive markets situation, mobile phone operators from a completely "leading role" gradually transformed into an "intermediary role", And its "business model" option of course, because each carrier's "financial and material resources"; and "available resources" be different, but in the "strategy" and "operating mode" setting also has considerable big science, and sometimes they look (outside) the success of, and copying other people's "critical success factors" and will not "necessarily successful". Is important to be in the "different competitive environment" and "difficult competitive situation in the sinister", to be able to "see other people do not see the market" business opportunities, to be able to "grasp the turning point of each point in time "and then" effective concentration of the resources go to vote, "the victory of success for granted. The main conclusions of this study include: 1. Third-generation mobile data services and value-added application services business model and traditional voice telecommunications services to voice-based mode of operation have clearly different points, not to the existing mode of operation to run data services and value-added application services firms. However, adopting the "second doctrine" (that is, the so-called "follow the doctrine") in the third generation mobile communications market and competitive environment is feasible strategies. (In this case study - Japan's KDDI and the Asia-Pacific Broadband Wireless operations shall Example) 2. The traditional "voice"-based "business model" and "data services and value-added application services," mainly "business model" point of difference to a voice-based mode of operation lies in its main voice services 『 tariff price 』(Rate price) make modulation, will be on the market and competitors influence and ownership of these modulators can be completely controlled in the control of operators. Data and data value-added application services business model for telecom operators must take a back seat in the "intermediary" role to bring together the various value chain "suppliers" are one up, to create "the highest customer value," and From these match the process of due share of profits. (In this case study - Japan's NTT DoCoMo i-mode shall Example) 3. This case study is based on the domestic mobile phone, a perfectly competitive market, with a backward person (in this case study the company - the Asia-Pacific Broadband Wireless), began to enter the market, after careful observation in the dynamics of competitors finally found a "competition who neglected market space "; and" did not find a competitor's market space, "and then" cheaper products "into the market, finally winning in the market. 4. Apple following the iPOD and iTunes success, to a Music Download world, completely in order to provide the consumer point of view Content Services. In addition, Google also provides consumers with a full-service Internet point of view, both into the "smart phone" market, and even "the whole mobile phone market", indeed to the entire mobile phone market unparalleled shock. The study found that iPhone, or, Google Phone, or are using a mobile phone from a consumer point of view, by using the "open mode of operation" to cut into the market. This is the traditional mobile phone operators, mining completely "closed mode of operation" has significantly different. In the end "open business model" and the "closed mode of operation," Who will win the final then? 5. Data products mode of operation with traditional voice-based mode of operation is different from voice products are "price modulation" a great impact, while the price is in complete control of the modulation in the hands of mobile phone operators; However, the use of data products must go through "learning," "cognitive," "confirmed" and "preferences" and other process to be a gradual increase in its usage, and these factors in the process of change is not complete control over the mobile phone operators hands, because mobile phone operators in the data market's role as "intermediary" role comes together. The study found data products a higher initial investment, but the homogeneity of the high, easy to in the above-mentioned process were eliminated, but once one has a product can be successful in a competitive market survived the failure of other homogeneous products because it will of successful products that can come back in a short period of recovery. Therefore, data mining product must be "multi-path input" mode of the mode of operation. The success of data products, and its profits created out from business model are in the so-called "long tail period." As "i-mode" mother: Miss Matsunaga Mari said: "the pursuit of wants rather than the pursuit of needs", "A Service we want to do, even their own mothers can easily operate the service," and so on, These principles or beliefs, seemingly high theory, but it is the market, marketing, consumption principle. Matsunaga Mari in the "i-mode" is a valuable point to, apart from her to go high-tech industries "not nice" character, her high-tech products back to human face, face to deal with the market. She saw the link in the high-tech products with the market between "niche". Finally, after all, a data product "business model" has been successful created made out, in fact, come from "do not understand technology" from the "original" from the "life" and from "human", "natural "and" the kind of life continued from the soul of innovative thinking. "

本篇論文主要在探討台灣行動電子產品的市場擴散模式，以行動電話、筆記型電腦與PDA為例，來探討個別行動電子產品的產業發展概況。 ■　行動電子產品的擴散模式，有以下的特性： 1. 在運用技術採用生命週期理論前，需要先注意本身產品的特性，如「易攜性與方便使用」、「具個人隨身資訊管理功能」、「具傳輸資料的通訊功能」、「具智慧型處理能力」，以瞭解會吸引何種潛在使用者。 2. 行動電子產品本身的可攜性、資料處理功能，皆吸引了第一區隔族群的早期使用者購買，因此行動電子產品的初期銷售皆呈現了一波看好。 3. 行動電子產品面臨的成長不連續，是由於產品本身的功能性已吸引第一區隔族群的早期使用者，因此可呈現一波成長。但因為產品的「可靠性」、「便利性」以及「價格」因素的問題，無法吸引早期大眾的青睞，讓產品本身的市場發展出現不連續的狀態。 4. 行動電話、筆記型電腦、PDA等，其在產品的功能性上皆可吸引早期使用者的購買，但在吸引早期大眾的購買上，還是以改良其操作介面、提高產品的穩定度來做著手。因此真正影響到潛在使用者購買產品的，決定性因素還是在於產品本身的特性，若產品的價格功能比達到潛在顧客的標準，以及其操作便利性容易，則會吸引潛在顧客的購買。外部環境的影響以及資訊擴散對於提升潛在使用者購買動機的影響較小，而是以將非潛在使用者進而轉變成為潛在使用者較有所幫助。而除了外部環境與資訊擴散外，產品本身功能的延伸也可以擴展潛在使用者的數量與族群。 5. 行動電子產品的主要兩個區隔族群：「商業人士」、「非商業人士」，早期使用者主要存在於商業人士中，而非商業人士則是以早期大眾、晚期大眾為主，因此要提升產品的銷售，可由鴻溝出現前的顧客需求與非商業人士的需求差異，作一比較，針對其中的產品特性差別作改善。 ■ 資料處理取向的筆記型電腦與通訊導向的行動電話在族群擴散時，不同點為： 1. 資料處理取向的筆記型電腦與PDA，由於其潛在顧客數量與族群本身就被資料處理、數位助理限制住，因此容易讓潛在顧客陷入成長的困境中。因此若要讓潛在顧客群的數量有大量的提升，則需要靠電腦教育的普及，以及網際網路的助益，才有辦法讓電腦使用人口提升，進而增加潛在使用者的數量。 2. 相較於通訊導向的行動電話，由於行動電話本身的通訊功能是大眾不可或缺的，因此其潛在顧客群規模本就比較大，發展的潛力也大了很多。 3. 除了潛在使用者的問題，筆記型電腦與行動電話本身的使用障礙也有很大的差異，筆記型電腦本身的視窗系統雖然越來越人性化，但其問題與安裝仍有進入障礙，不像行動電話的軟體系統上使用便利，因此其成長曲線呈現快速的成長。 4. 在資料處理與通訊功能結合下，將會產生無線數據傳輸的功能，而在這兩功能的族群交集下，由於於資料處理的族群數量有限，因此其潛在使用者可能不是無線通訊的使用者，而較可能為是同時使用兩種功能下的使用者，因此可考慮在此前提下進行族群的探討與發展。 / Since 1997, the mobile electronic products became more and more popular, including mobile phone, notebook computer, and PDA. Because of the revising of communication law in 1997, the wartime of the mobile phone industry came. More and more people in Taiwan started to pay attention to mobile phone, and cheaper and cheaper the price of mobile phone is. In this way, the mobile market in Taiwan grows very fast. The rate of popularity of mobile grew to 80+% in 2000. Since the price of notebook computer down in 1997, the sales of notebook became better. Beside the price down, the popular of Internet and Win95 system are the main reason of the growth of notebook market. Another mobile electronic product: PDA, will be the next star of mobile electronic product. That is why this thesis trys to discuess these three mobile electronic products. <Objectives> This thesis trys to investigate the growth of the market of mobile electronic product, including mobile phone, notebook computer and PDA. This thesis will discuss the diffusion model of mobile electronic product in Taiwan, including the diffusion of distinguish of customers, the model of each different product the same or not. The furthermore, this thesis still try to establish the common diffusion model of mobile electronic product. The main object of this thesis is: 1. The characteristic of mobile electronic product. 2. The develop model of each mobile electronic product market before the growth of discontinuity. 3. The reason of the discontinuous growth of each mobile electronic product. 4. The influence of product reformation, diffusion channels and environment on the diffusion of divisive customers. 5. To develop the common diffusion model of mobile electronic product by the characteristic. <Research Structure> This thesis is based on diffusion of innovation as the core and supported by the industry report. According the diffusion reports and book, a diffusion model should include four elements—environment, product characteristic, diffusion channel and divisive customers. The research structure is as follows: In this diffusion model, including four main elements—environment, product characteristic, diffusion channel and divisive customers, each one element effect on another one. The environment would affect the characteristic of product and diffusion channel and customer behavior. The characterisic of product will affect on the customer’s purchase desire. The diffusion channel will decide how many customers knowing the product, and the diffusion channel include two kinds of channel—production diffusion and information diffusion. <Case Choice> This thesis choose three mobile electionic product: 1. mobile phone 2. notebook computer 3. PDA <Research Methodology> This theris adopts the case study using industry report and in-depth managers and customers interviews. Before interviewing, the author has collected related data and the under-practicing data of every industry. <Case Analysis and Conclusions> 1. Before using ‘Technology Adoption Life Cycle’, we have to understand the characteristic of the mobile electronic product, in order to understand what kind of customer will be attracted. 2. The property of carrying and data processing of mobile electronic product will attract the early adopters of first division customers. 3. The discontinuous growth of the product is because of the incomplete of reliability, convenience and price, so the early majority don’t want to purchase the product. 4. To make the customer to purchase the product, the critical factor is the characteristic of the product. If the product has complete capability, the customers will have willing to buy. 5. The main two divisive customers is ‘business people’ and ‘not business people’. The most of the early adopters is included in first division, and the second division is mainly formed of early majority and later majority. If we want to know the difference between the demand of early adopters and early majoritys, we can know it by comparing the demand of first division with second division.

藉由研究無線通信產業標準的制訂過程與主流標準的形成機制，本研究探討過去有關影響產業標準建立的文獻與個案，提出系統發展過程中，各影響因素扮演的角色與提供的功能，以瞭解在無線通信產業中，影響一標準脫穎而出成為市場主流的關鍵因素。本研究主要的研究發現如下： 一、政府的政策對標準後續發展相當重要，若政府態度是採開放競爭，則將在境內形成多種標準競爭而耗掉大部分能量，未來在標準向外推展上較吃虧。反之政府若能主導統一標準，常能使相關資源更集中焦點來發展單一標準，未來對外推展上較能成功。 二、協會能否發揮協商能力，使各業者提出之標準能相結合，是主流標準形成之關鍵之一，協會若能使各業者放棄成見，取得共識形成單一標準將有助於標準之發展。 三、對標準主導者而言，若能成為主流標準確實擁有很多潛在利益，為爭取標準的支持度，便會有很多遊說及策略聯盟產生，若能取得越多成員支持，常較能形成主流標準，因此標準擁有者若能降低權利金門檻，甚至將其免費授權並公開架構，標準成為市場主流之成長速度將會加快。但若成員過於複雜也容易阻礙標準演進的進度。 四、第三代行動電話的應用以多媒體為主，這是相當革命性的嚐試，故能否找到消費者公認的殺手級應用服務（killer application）成為成敗關鍵要素之一。 五、標準形成之發源地需有足夠的經濟規模量的支持，才能累積足夠資源向境外擴展。 六、標準形成在發酵期必須取得單一標準共識，在漸進變化期於境內快速建立成功經驗，並順利將成功複製於境外地區，這個模式較能成功成為主流標準。另在建立標準時需有明確的願景與目標、具國際化的規格設計，才可減少在對外擴展時之障礙。 / This thesis is intended to make explicit the roles played and functions provided by the various factors in the process of system development by means of an investigation of the process of the formation of a wireless communications standard and the mechanism that makes it a dominant. By studying the documents and cases on the factors affecting the establishment of a standard, we have come to recognize six fundamentals that make it stand out as a dominant. These six fundamentals are summarized as follows: 1. The policy made by the government plays an essential part in the further development of the formation of a given standard. If the government adopts an attitude of open competition, then lots of related resources will be wasted on the keen competition between vying forces in the local market, which is, in turn, detrimental to outward expansion. On the contrary, if the government integrates the related resources and helps form a unitary standard, the standard may succeed in opening other markets. 2. The Association is also an important positive contributor in the process of the formation of a unitary standard. The Association should do its best to mediate between each vying standard to reach an agreement and adopt a unitary standard, which is definitely instrumental in the further development. 3. For those who want to direct the formation of a standard and get the tremendous potential profits from it, they will do a lot of lobbying and form strategic alliances to attract more supports for the standard. When succeeding in doing so, the owners of the unitary standard can speed up the growth of its market by lowering the royalty and license limit, or even by opening its architecture with a free authorization. 4. The application of the third-generation cellular phones features multi-media, which is a considerably revolutionary attempt. Therefore, the success of it depends on whether the standard can come up with a killer application that appeals to consumers. 5. The local market from which the standard originates should be big enough to support it, so the standard can stand firm on the strong basis and reach out for other markets. 6. The formation of a standard should be based on an agreement of a unitary standard at the ferment stage. And at the transition stage, it should build up a successful experience as soon as possible in the local market and then successfully duplicate the model in the international ones. Besides, a definite goal and a clear vision as well as internationalized regulations and designs all contribute to lifting the barriers in its expanding outwards.

全球行動電話用戶數於2002年達到12億，首度超過固定電話用戶數之11億；行動電話用戶數並於2008年達41億，為固定電話用戶數(13億)之3倍以上。行動電話相對於固定電話之主要優勢在於系統之建置成本低及佈建速度快；行動電話之快速普及已成為創新擴散研究之重要題材。 行動電話擴散之研究為選取一成長模型(例如Gompertz、Logistic或Bass模型)並類比該模型以求出擴散之參數(例如成長速率)，以進一步(1)了解相關驅動因子(例如技術創新、市場開放等)對擴散參數之影響，及(2)延伸擴散模型曲線以預測未來之成長。 惟成長模型之選取尚無原理原則可供遵循而具隨機性(ad hoc basis)。為找出模型選用之可能規律，以降低模型選用之隨機性並提高成長預測之準確度，本研究以十二個代表性國家(巴、中、法、德、印、日、韓、俄、星、台、英、美)至2007年之資料以比較三個最常用之成長模型之績效，即Gompertz、Logistic及Bass模型。模型績效逐年比較標準係採用rmse值，並輔以Friedman test檢測模型績效差異之顯著性，再對照模型之機制意涵，以進一步了解最適模型之選用原則。 此外，台灣行動電話普及率於2002年為108%居全球之冠，而中國自2001年起取代美國成為全球具最多行動電話用戶數之單一國家，台灣及中國屬行動電話擴散之重要個案，惟目前尚缺此二個案之實證研究。為補足此一缺口，本研究亦對台灣及中國行動電話擴散之驅動因子進行實證研究，以進一步了解擴散之關鍵驅動力。 研究發現由於目前統計軟體之進步，Gompertz、Logistic及Bass三模型均可獲致極佳之匹配度而難分軒輊，惟模型預測力(延伸曲線)則具差異性。12個模型選用樣本國家中之8個國家(巴、中、法、德、日、韓、英、美)係以Gompertz模型具較佳之預測力；依Gompertz模型機制意涵，代表行動電話擴散早期係受網路外部性(口耳相傳)影響，惟至擴散後期(例如過了擴散極大值之一半)則已不相關。此外，若因市場開放等重大變因造成行動電話之快速擴散，則Logistic模型具有較佳之績效，如台灣及俄羅斯屬之。依Logistic模型機制意涵，代表擴散係受網路外部性所影響。Bass模型應用於行動電擴散時，因該模型所算出之創新係數偏低，績效與Logistic模型相近，而Logistic模型為Bass模型之創新係數為0時之特例。 台灣及中國行動電話擴散之驅動因子研究發現(1)價格下降及(2)預付卡之推行對加速擴散具顯著性，兩者均對低階市場之採用具影響力。鑑於高階市場將先飽和，爰未來加速行動電話擴散之關鍵驅動因子應係與推動低階市場採用具密切相關性。以中國為例，未來市場開放競爭造成價格再度大幅下降，將進一步促低階市場採用，加速中國行動電話之普及。 / The number of mobile telephone subscriptions reached 1.2 billion globally in 2002, exceeding fixed-line telephony subscriptions (1.1 billion) for the first time. The number of mobile telephone subscriptions reached 4.1 billion globally in 2008, over three times the number of fixed-line telephone subscriptions (1.3 billion). The main advantages of mobile telephony over fixed-line are low cost and rapid facility deployment. The rapid diffusion of mobile telephony has become an important topic in innovation diffusion. The conventional approach to studying mobile telephony diffusion is to analogize a single growth model, such as the Gompertz, Logistic or Bass model, and calculate the model parameters, for example growth rate. The significance of certain selected driving forces, such as technology innovation or market competition, to the studied parameters, such as growth rate, is then estimated. The diffusion growth can also be forecast by extrapolating the diffusion curve. Utilizing the growth model analogy is the first step in analyzing mobile telephony diffusion. However, no principles or rules exit for selecting a growth model. To identify rules for model selection to reduce randomness and increase forecast accuracy, this work uses 12 sample countries, namely Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Japan, Korea, Russia, Singapore, Taiwan, the UK and the USA, employing data prior to 2008 to compare the performance of three most commonly used models, namely the Gompertz, Logistic and Bass models. The root mean square error (rmse) is chosen as the criterion for measuring annual model performance. The work uses the Friedman test to examine the significance of differences in performance between models. The implications of model mechanisms are emphasized to investigate the selection rule for the most appropriate model. The penetration of mobile telephony in Taiwan was 108% in 2002, ranking first in the world. Furthermore, in 2001 the number of mobile telephony in China replaced the United States as number one in the world. Both Taiwan and China are important examples for mobile telephony diffusion. However, no empirical investigation has been performed in these two cases. To fill this gap, this work estimated the driving forces for mobile telephony diffusion in Taiwan and China to learn about the critical drivers of the mobile telephony diffusion. Empirical results indicate that due to improvements in statistical software, providing good fitness for all three models, namely the Gompertz, Logistic and Bass models, distinguishing which has the best fitness is difficult. However, the performance of the three models is distinguishable when forecasting based on extrapolating the diffusion curve. In eight of the 12 examples, namely Brazil, China, France, Germany, Japan, Korea, the UK and the USA, the Gompertz model is the most appropriate model for forecasting. The mechanism of the Gompertz model means that during the initial stage the diffusion is correlated with network externalities (namely word of mouth), however, this correlation reduces during the later stages (such as pass one half of the maximum potential). Moreover, the cases of Taiwan and Russia demonstrated that the Logistic model performs well provided some significant driver of the diffusion exists. The mechanism of the Logistic model means that the diffusion is correlated with network externalities throughout the whole diffusion. Furthermore, using Chinese data, when the Bass model is applied, because of its low innovation coefficient, it performs similarly to the Logistic model, which is a special case of the Bass model in which the innovation coefficient equals zero. Empirical results for the critical driving forces of mobile telephony diffusion in Taiwan and China indicate that (1) reducing prices and (2) the launch of pre-paid services are crucial to mobile telephony diffusion. Both factors are essential to mobile telephony adoption in low-end markets. The high-end market is the first to be saturated by mobile telephony adoption, future drivers of the mobile telephony diffusion should be highly correlated with low-end market demand. Taking China as an example, the opening of the market to further reduce tariffs will attract mobile telephony adoption in the low-end market, facilitating the mobile telephony diffusion.

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手機功能不斷創新，行動內容服務應運而生，使得行動電話由溝通工具，變身為訊息載具，資訊型行動內容服務尤其凸顯了行動電話「隨時隨地、傳播訊息」的特性。以台灣行動電話用戶密度達100%，高居全球第一之現況，資訊型行動內容服務之經營應有其值得關注之處。 　　本文以中央社為例，探討資訊型行動內容服務經營模式，先藉由瞭解全球發展行動內容服務先進國家之現況，進而剖析台灣各行動內容服務廠商之競爭、合作關係，最後綜合分析中央社之業務狀況，提出資訊型行動內容服務經營模式之建議。 　　本文以參與觀察與深度訪談的方式，總共訪問了七位行動電話系統業者加值服務業務承辦人，以及五位中央通訊社負責行動內容服務網站的編輯及程式工程師，以瞭解面對行動電話加值服務快速成長及演變下，中央社如何設定及調整其行動內容服務的經營模式。 　　研究結果顯示，「資訊好用、操作簡單」是資訊型行動內容服務最重要的特質；反映時事變化製作專題報導與有效編輯、整理內容重點，則是吸引用戶使用服務的守則；而專責團隊經營則是因應行動內容市場多變的重要經營要素。 　　本文雖然指出中央社發展行動內容服務業務面臨許多內外環境障礙之衝擊，但中央社行動內容服務憑藉「即時資訊」的優勢，配合行動電話「隨身」及「隨時隨地」的特性，讓資訊傳播有了更大的想像空間，也更加凸顯資訊型行動內容服務的重要性。由於資訊型行動內容服務網站之經營模式，至今尚未見具系統性研究，本研究之分析訪談不僅試圖填補過去研究的缺憾，也指出未來研究值得探討的方向。 / The functions of mobile phones have continued to evolve, most significantly from simple tools for communications to ones that provide up-to-date information. Informational mobile content services are especially remarkable in that they bring any amount of data to the user at any time, anywhere – the essence of valued-added service. This is certainly important in Taiwan given that the penetration rate for mobile phone subscribers is 100 percent – the highest in the world. This study focuses on the business model of the Central News Agency(CNA)'s informational mobile content services. Discussions range from a global view to management in the domestic market. This study looks at the practical experiences at CNA with regard to informational mobile content services and how best to optimize them. Through observations and extensive interviews, 12 key people involved in informational mobile content services were contacted for this study. Seven of them are mobile content service product managers of mobile telecommunications companies and five are editors and programmers from the Multimedia News Center of the CNA. This was done to understand the operational model of CNA's mobile content services given the rapid changes being made in mobile phone value-added services. The study results show that on-demand, real-time data that is easy to access is the key to quality informational mobile content services, and that special news projects are attractive to potential subscribers. Moreover, a professional team is the cornerstone of operations to ensure the success of these services. Although the study found that CNA faces internal and external challenges for its mobile content service operations, it has made significant strides in bringing the message to the people of the importance of real-time mobile content services. Since there have been few studies on the subject, this analysis will break new ground and set the stage for further discussions on the issue.

京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(教育学) / 甲第18016号 / 教博第157号 / 新制||教||144(附属図書館) / 30874 / 京都大学大学院教育学研究科教育科学専攻 / (主査)准教授 佐藤 卓己, 教授 川崎 良孝, 教授 駒込 武, 教授 貴志 俊彦 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Philosophy (Education) / Kyoto University / DGAM