Os sistemas naturais e humanos são considerados sistemas integrados, com interações complexas e de caráter fortemente multidisciplinar. A abordagem da limnologia da paisagem, como um princípio holístico para avaliar as relações complexas entre a bacia de captação e o reservatório, é de grande importância na produção de diagnósticos consistentes. O modelo de tomada de decisão foi produzido por meio de literatura especializada, conhecimento de especialistas, Processo Hierárquico Analítico (AHP) e Avaliação Multicritério (MCE). O modelo foi desenvolvido para atuar em escala da paisagem, considerando a bacia de captação como a escala observacional. Foram selecionados sete critérios (variáveis preditoras) para determinar o grau de fragilidade ambiental para o processo de eutrofização antrópica em reservatórios tropicais: Variáveis Intrínsecas do Reservatório: (1) morfometria (profundidade) e Tempo de Retenção (RT); (2) Variáveis Limnológicas: Zona Eufótica e presença de macrófitas de crescimento intensivo; (3) Variáveis Antrópicas: Fonte de Poluição Difusa Potencial; e (4) Variáveis Hidrológicas: Taxa de Sedimentação e escoamento superficial potencial. No processo de ponderação das variáveis, todas as matrizes foram consistentes e os especialistas priorizaram o Escoamento Superficial potencial e a Fonte de Poluição Difusa Potencial com os principais responsáveis pelo processo de eutrofização antrópica. Apesar dos critérios e pesos serem fixos para os reservatórios tropicais, existe a possibilidade de ajuste do modelo de acordo com situações especiais, já que o modelo é flexível suficiente para ser utilizados em outras bacias de captação, com características diferentes e intrínsecas. O modelo também é adaptável em função da disponibilidade de base de dados / The human and natural systems are integrated systems, with complex interactions and a strong multidisciplinary character. The application of landscape limnology, as a holistic principle to address the complex relationships between the watershed and reservoir, are of great importance to produce consistent diagnoses and predictions. The GIS-based model was performed by using literature, expert knowledge, Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE). The model was performed in a landscape scale considering the watershed as the observational scale. We selected seven criteria (predictor variables) to assess the environmental fragility to human-induced eutrophication in tropical reservoirs: (1) Intrinsic Reservoir Variables: morphometry (depth) and Retention Time (RT); (2) Limnological Variables: euphotic zone and intensive-growth macrophytes presence; (3) Anthropic Variable: Potential Non-Point Source (NPS); and (4) Hydrological Variable: Sedimentation Rate and Potential Runoff. In the weighting process, all matrices were consistent and the experts prioritized the potential runoff and potential NPS criteria as the main drivers of human-induced eutrophication. Although the criteria and its weights are considered fixed for any tropical reservoir, it is possible to adjust them according to specific situations since the model proposed is flexible enough to be used in different watersheds with different and intrinsic characteristics and adapted according to the database availability

Esta tese trata dos ambientes coletivos dos condomínios horizontais e dos loteamentos fechados construídos a partir de 1990 na cidade de Londrina Pr. Busca descobrir quais as necessidades dos usuários (moradores) e, a partir da avaliação de desempenho físico e de satisfação do usuário voltada aos ambientes construídos e de uso coletivo, com ênfase nos aspectos social, funcional, segurança, durabilidade e manutenabilidade, formula procedimentos metodológicos de desempenho de avaliação para dar suporte na definição de programas de necessidades para futuros empreendimentos similares. Propõe um modelo metodológico que encontra suporte no Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) para hierarquizar os atributos e as alternativas que influenciam nas decisões de projeto (critérios e subcritérios) e cuja calibragem do modelo se dá por meio da Avaliação Pós-Ocupação (APO), envolvendo os pontos de vista dos moradores, dos administradores ou síndicos, dos autores dos projetos destes empreendimentos, além dos levantamentos in loco realizado pelo pesquisador. / ABSTRACT This thesis deals with collective environments of gated communities and plots which started being built in 1990 in the city of Londrina-PR. It searches for finding out the needs of the users (residents) and, from the evaluation of their physical performance and satisfaction regarding the built and collective environments, with special emphasis on social, functional, safety, durability and maintenance aspects, conceives the methodological procedures of performance evaluation to support the definition of programs of needs for future similar developments. It proposes a methodological model supported by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to form as a hierarchy the attributes and the alternatives which have influence on the design decisions (criteria and sub-criteria), whose calibration of the proposed methodological model took place through the Post-Occupancy Evaluation (POE), involving the viewpoints from the residents, the administrators or syndics and architects, besides the surveys in loco carried out by this researcher.

Esta tese trata dos ambientes coletivos dos condomínios horizontais e dos loteamentos fechados construídos a partir de 1990 na cidade de Londrina Pr. Busca descobrir quais as necessidades dos usuários (moradores) e, a partir da avaliação de desempenho físico e de satisfação do usuário voltada aos ambientes construídos e de uso coletivo, com ênfase nos aspectos social, funcional, segurança, durabilidade e manutenabilidade, formula procedimentos metodológicos de desempenho de avaliação para dar suporte na definição de programas de necessidades para futuros empreendimentos similares. Propõe um modelo metodológico que encontra suporte no Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) para hierarquizar os atributos e as alternativas que influenciam nas decisões de projeto (critérios e subcritérios) e cuja calibragem do modelo se dá por meio da Avaliação Pós-Ocupação (APO), envolvendo os pontos de vista dos moradores, dos administradores ou síndicos, dos autores dos projetos destes empreendimentos, além dos levantamentos in loco realizado pelo pesquisador. / ABSTRACT This thesis deals with collective environments of gated communities and plots which started being built in 1990 in the city of Londrina-PR. It searches for finding out the needs of the users (residents) and, from the evaluation of their physical performance and satisfaction regarding the built and collective environments, with special emphasis on social, functional, safety, durability and maintenance aspects, conceives the methodological procedures of performance evaluation to support the definition of programs of needs for future similar developments. It proposes a methodological model supported by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to form as a hierarchy the attributes and the alternatives which have influence on the design decisions (criteria and sub-criteria), whose calibration of the proposed methodological model took place through the Post-Occupancy Evaluation (POE), involving the viewpoints from the residents, the administrators or syndics and architects, besides the surveys in loco carried out by this researcher.

雲端運算(Cloud Computing)，是近年來在資訊科技與商業資訊應用領域中，佔有相當重要地位的研究與應用議題。眾多企業的執行長與資訊專家宣稱，雲端運算可降低基礎硬體設施與軟體維護的管理成本，為企業組織帶來新的契機與創造全新的商業模式。並非所有人都對雲端運算有正面的評價，部分專家學者指出，科技公司如Google、Microsoft與Amazon等大力推廣雲端運算，皆為了其利益和提高其現有硬體設備資產之利用度，過度高估雲端運算的價值以吸引企業客戶外包更多資訊系統與資訊應用。而無論雲端運算是否能成為下個世代的潮流，未來電腦發展趨勢，已有趨向集中分散各處的運算資源來完成需要高度運算能力服務之現象。 　　本研究提出一分析模式，預期讓中小企業(Small and Medium-sized Enterprise ,SME)進行外包資訊系統決策，在採用傳統外包與雲端運算外包此二種模式中做抉擇時，能對可能影響決策之因素進行評比與重要性排序，讓雲端服務提供廠商了解使用者所重視的要點以改善現有的服務與加強其發展的方向。本研究亦蒐集雲端運算的相關文獻與各方評價，以及與雲端運算相關之技術和特性，彙整成為一多面向之因素模型。本研究使用德菲法(Delphi Method)與層級分析法(Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP)，透過製發問卷來濾除模型中不重要之因素與分析因素之間相對的重要程度。本研究之最終研究結果顯示安全性(Security)與穩定性(Stability)兩大面向與相關因素，為中小企業在進行外包決策與選擇服務提供商之優先考量。

近年來，由於ICT的蓬勃發展，政府逐漸增加投資於電子化計畫的線上服務比例與種類，為了理解投資所能獲得的收益，杜絕資源浪費，並促使政府調整施政方向達到良善治理，針對電子化計畫進行評估是勢然必行的。目前許多評估機構逐漸從衡量政府投資電子化政府服務的客觀產出，轉而討論電子化服務使用者端的影響與成果。本研究，以計畫整體流程中所面臨的內部運作與外部感受、客觀產出與抽象成果的評估構面，提出G2B電子化計畫流程評估架構。 本研究結合Heeks (2006)的價值鏈模型與Millard & Shahin (2006)電子化計畫評估流程建立流程模型，透過文獻整理出評比國家型、網頁感知品質型、滿意模型與利害關係人模型指標，從企業途徑與政府內部途徑角度，探討G2B計畫流程評估架構，並使用層級分析法(analytic hierarchy process)，由專家給予衡量G2B計畫推動時，前端到後端階段中重要構面的權重，並根據分析結果討論現今台灣計劃評估傾向上的差異。 本研究結果發現，在政府計畫生產過程中，應重視政府領導與支持，並發展衡量方式；專家不論在企業途徑與政府內部途徑上，都認為「服務產出評估是必需的過程，但影響與成果階段，才是價值衡量的終點」，因此，電子化計劃評估應從重視成本比的角度，朝向討論「透過政府對計畫服務的投入與投資，所能帶給企業實際或感知的價值與影響」，更能切中利害關係人關注的關鍵利益。 / This study aims at building an e-program evaluation chain model combining output evaluation with impact assessments, in order to assess the comprehensive G2B e-program from back-office process to the impact of online services. This study contributes a G2B evaluation framework with six processes integrated by e-government value chain model and e-program evaluation process. Given the concept of external and internal customer,「Business approach」and「Internal-Government approach」is developed in view of stakeholders. By evaluating subjective expert judgments via analytic hierarchy process method, this G2B evaluation framework is given weights and priorities in each hierarchy under both of approaches. The results indicate that impact and outcome assessments should be emphasized, no matter which approach is. Evaluation toward objective output is only a necessary process, but not the destination. As policy suggestions, this study addresses that government should focus on what kinds of value e-program can bring, and evaluate them.

本研究旨在建構一套適用當前教育環境的「國民小學學校效能評鑑指標與權重體系」，以作為未來有效評鑑國民小學辦學績效的基礎。 研究者透過推薦程序，選定教育學者、教育行政人員、小學校長及小學教師等合計138名為參與評定專家，以進行指標可用性及相對權重分配之調查及訪談，並應用卡方考驗、階層分析程序法(AHP) 等進行考驗分析，最後建構完成「國民小學學校效能評鑑指標與權重體系」。研究結果顯示： 一、「國民小學學校效能評鑑指標與權重體系」中，一級指標包含了「教育輸入」、「教育歷程」與「教育產出」。其相對權重分配，「教育輸入」指標為26％，「教育歷程」指標為41％，「教育產出」指標則為33％。 二、一級指標中之教育輸入指標，下轄「發展目標與計畫」、「經費與教學設備」、「教師能力素質」與「學校環境品質」等四個二級指標。其相對權重分配，依序為20％、17％、43％與20％，其下並分別下轄數個三級評鑑指標。 三、一級指標中之教育歷程指標，下轄「校長領導作為」、「學校行政管理」、「學校組織氣氛」與「教師教學品質」等四個二級指標。其相對權重分配，依序為23％、12％、23％與42％，其下並分別下轄三到四個三級評鑑指標。 四、一級指標中之教育產出指標，下轄「發展目標與計畫達成」、「學生成就表現」、「教師專業成長」與「學校社區聲望」等四個二級指標，其相對權重分配，依序為24％、34％、28％與14％，其下並分別下轄二到四個三級評鑑指標。 五、三級評鑑指標項下，並建構有評估細目指標，惟並無相對權重之設計，以符合實務應用時客觀具體與因地制宜之平衡需求。 此外，本研究也針對「學校效能評鑑模式」、「評鑑指標的有效選擇」與「相對權重的理想建構」等進行分析討論。文末並針對實務應用與未來之研究方向等提出具體之建議。 / The purpose of this study aims to establish the evaluation indicators and the weight system of school effectiveness in elementary education. Total of 138 experts were recommended to help developing the evaluation indicators. The subjects consisting of educators, administrators, principals, teachers in elementary schools are implemented with questionnaires and interviews. The main work of these experts was to judge the availability of indicators and the ratio of weights. The results are analyzed by Chi-square test and Analytic Hierarchy　Process（AHP）. The conclusion manifests as follows: 1) the first-order indicators in the weight system for elementary school effectiveness include educational input, educational process, and educational output. The weight for each inidicator is 26%, 41% and 33% respectively. The second-order inidicators and their weights are stated as follows: a.) the "educational input" comprises four second-order indicators: developing goals and planning (20％), expenditure and equipment（17％）, teachers' competence（43％） and environmental quality（20％）. There are three third-order indicators under these second-order indicators. b.) the "educational process" encompasses four second-order indicators: principal's leadership（23％）, administration and management（12％）, school climate (23％) and teaching quality (42%). Each of these indicators contains three or four third-order indicators. c.) the "educational output" contains of four second-order indicators: the developing and achieving goals（24％）, students' performance（34％）, teachers' professional development（28％）, and school's reputation in community (14％). Each of these indicators also contains 2 to 4 third-order indicators. 2.) the reason for the fourth-order indicators not given any weight is to keep the flexibility of this system in various education settings. Besides, this study also discusses the evaluation model of school effectiveness, the effective choice of indicators and the ideal construct of indicator weight. At the end of the study also proposes some concrete suggestions for practice and further study.

Turkey, with its climate, protected bays, cultural and environmental resources is an ideal place for yacht tourism. Subsequently, yacht tourism is increasing consistently. Yacht tourism can cause unmitigated development and environmental concerns when aiming to achieve tourist satisfaction. As the demand for yacht tourism intensifies, sustainable development strategies are needed to maximize natural, cultural and economic benefits. Integration of forecasts to the strategic planning is necessary for sustainable and use of the coastal resources. In this study two different quantitative forecasting techniques - Exponential smoothing and Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methods were used to estimate the demand for yacht berthing capacity demand till 2030 in Turkey. Based on environmental, socio-economic and geographic data and the opinions gathered from stakeholders such as marina operators, local communities and government officials an allocation model was developed for the successful allocation of the predicted demand seeking social and economical growth while preserving the coastal environment. AHP was used to identify and evaluate the development, social and environmental and geographic priorities. Aiming a dynamic plan which is responsive to both national and international developments in yacht tourism, potential investment areas were determined for the investments required to accommodate the future demand. This study provides a multi dimensioned point of view to planning problem and highlights the need for sustainable and dynamic planning at delicate and high demand areas such as coasts.

本研究為探究鄉村型生態社區實踐及推動的關鍵因素，綜合質化研究與量化研究，以「文獻分析」、「個案研究」及「專家問卷」為本研究之研究方法。首先以「文獻分析」透過社區總體營造及生態社區相關文獻的經驗與借鏡，彙整過去學術研究的寶貴經驗，探討推動生態社區的關鍵因素；再以「個案研究」釐清鄉村型生態社區的基礎資源及資源運用於永續功能實踐情況，探究社區轉化為永續經營的重要關鍵，並彙整推動生態社區之關鍵因素；再運用層級分析法之理論，歸納「文獻分析」及「個案研究」之研究成果，設計「專家問卷」，以社區的內部條件及外部支援資源為組成構面，建置推動鄉村型生態社區的關鍵因素指標架構第一階層為「A.政府」、「B.夥伴」、「C.社區團隊」、「D.社區環境」等四個層面，並歸納第二階層有「A1.生態社區人才培訓年齡」等二十個因素指標，並針對業界、政府部門、學界、社區等領域中之專家進行問卷調查，將回收之23份有效問卷利用專家決策分析軟體（Expert Choice 2000）進行統計之分析。 專家問卷調查分析結果得知推動鄉村型生態社區之層面首重「C.社區團隊」，權重為50.1﹪；關鍵因素整層級權重排序前五名為「C1.領導人」(17.5%)、「C2.組織團隊」(11.8%)、「D1.自然環境」(10.6%)、「C3.社區意識」(9.4%) 、「D2.人文環境」(7.7%)，表示專家認為社區領導者擁有積極態度與能力及社區內民眾參與度高以建立組織健全的架構，為最重要之成功因素，若再能凝聚社區意識與聚合社區居民的行動，實為推動生態社區之最主要關鍵，而鄉村中豐富的自然環境或社區內珍貴人文環境為推廣生態社區之重要條件，於生態社區發展之初，社區必須自我檢視以確立社區生態發展之項目。 根據文獻分析、個案研究及關鍵因素權重分析結果，本研究建議在推動鄉村型生態社區時是由社區自發性開始，策略應由下而上形成，社區能自我成長，並考量外部因素，本研究分別提出社區、政府、夥伴等不同角色下之實踐與推動策略建議，供不同角色在推動生態社區時能參考並靈活且彈性的運用。 / Aimed at researching key factors for rural ecological community development, this study integrates qualitative research and quantitative research and uses “Literature Analysis”, “Case Research” and “Expert Surveys” research methods. Firstly, through “literature analysis”, the study analyzes previous records of community development and ecological community to learn from valuable experiences and organize the findings of previous academic researches for the discussion of key factors for ecological community development. Then, through “case research”, the study attempts to understand the implementation status of the use of rural ecological community basic resources in sustainable development, investigate the key factors for sustainable community development and archive the key factors for ecological community development. Next, using the concepts of Analytic Hierarchy Process, the research results of the “literature analysis” and “case research” are inducted in the design of “Expert Survey”. Using the internal factors and external support resources of the community to form the hierarchy, the key factor indicator framework for rural ecological community development is established with the first level comprising of four factors, “A. Government”, “B. Partner”, “C. Community Team”, and “D. Community Environment” while the second layer inducted over 20 factor indicators such as “A1. Ecological Community Talent Development Age”. Targeted at experts from industries, government departments and academic institutions and communities, 23 sets of effective surveys were collected and statistically analyzed using expert decision analysis software, Expert Choice 2000. From the survey analysis findings, “C. Community Team” has the greatest weight of 50.1%. The top 5 factors in the key factor hierarchy weight are “C1. Leader (17.5%)”, “C2. Organization Team (11.8%)”, “D1. Natural Environment (10.6%)”, “C3. Community Awareness (9.4%)”, and “D2. Cultural Environment (7.7%)”. This finding shows that experts believe that the most important successful factors should be a community leader with active attitudes and competency, and a community with high public participation levels in building an organized structure. If community awareness can be raised and actions of the community coordinated, these will become the main factors in developing ecological communities. As critical factors of ecological community development, the community should perform self-reviews on the rich natural environment or valuable cultural environment of the rural community during the beginning to establish objectives for the ecological development. According to the results from literature analysis, case studies and key factor weight analysis, this study proposes that in the development of rural ecological community, the development should be spontaneous, strategies should be formed from the bottom-up approach, allow for the growth of the community and take external factors into consideration. This study also proposes implementation and promote strategies and suggestions for the different roles such as community, government and partners, providing reference for the different roles in the development of the ecological community and allow flexible application of the information.

By definition, all projects are unique / however R&amp / D projects have specific characteristics that make them harder to manage. The project management methodology applied to R&amp / D projects may show differences due to the categorization of them. But if there exists a categorization of projects, one can analyze the properties of the project classes and then manage similar projects similarly. In this study, the R&amp / D projects of a main military electronics company of Turkey, are analyzed. Tun&ccedil / (2004) has developed a methodology for clustering the projects of this electronics company. Continuing from his studies, a methodology for determining the class of a new project of this electronics company is developed. For defining the projects in a project space, a Project Identification Card (PIC) is developed. The measurement scale of the PIC is constructed by using the absolutemeasurement Analytic Hierarchy Process. A clustering Tabu Search algorithm is generated for using in the sensitivity analyses of the clusters to projects. And a methodology for determining the cluster of a new project is developed.

Having been running for over 10 years, the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is considered an innovative and successful mitigation initiative. CDM has the dual aims of helping industrialised countries achieve compliance with their emission limitation and reduction commitments in a cost-effective way, while simultaneously assisting developing countries in sustainable development. This thesis does a comprehensive analysis of the dual aims of CDM and is intended to assist in discussions about the post-2012 regime regarding CDM. To analyse the aim of assisting mitigation in a cost-effective way, the prices of certified emission reductions (CERs) on the international carbon market was studied and the provision of CDM was tested by comparing the amount of CERs with the mitigation commitments of the Annex I countries. It was found that CDM plays an important role in maintaining the international carbon price at a low level and that the total amount of CERs alone had already reached up to 52.70% of the entire mitigation commitments of industrialized countries by the end of 2010 and was continuing to grow before 2012. A theoretical analysis of the impacts of CDM showed that CDM has a double mitigation effect in both developing countries and industrialised countries, without double counting at present. A quantitative evaluation of the effects of China’s CDM projects on China’s total emissions showed that the contribution of CDM projects to limiting total emissions is small due to the dominance of fossil fuels, but CDM’s role in stimulating renewable energy is significant, e.g. about 11% of hydropower and 93% of wind power was generated by CDM projects in 2010. The results provide strong evidence in support of CDM’s contribution under the current Kyoto Protocol mitigation regime. To analyse the aim of promoting sustainable development in developing countries, popular methods such as checklist, Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA) and Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) were reviewed, a CBA of co-benefits of China’s CDM projects was carried out, and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was applied in an experimental study. The results showed that every method has its own advantages and problems. In other words, neither the CBA of co-benefits nor the AHP method alone is able to assess sustainable development in a completely satisfactory way. Currently, a bottom-up approach through engaging local stakeholders in CDM design and approval, combining a mandatory monitoring and evaluation of co-benefits, could be more effective for safeguarding local sustainable development than any consolidated standards. The future of the CDM is still unclear mainly due to uncertainties about the post-2012 regime. This thesis shows that there is more than sufficient reason for CDM to continue after 2012. Industrialised countries in general should make more substantial efforts to reduce their domestic emissions rather than blaming developing countries. For developing countries, learning from the CDM projects and further applying the knowledge, technology and experiences to their domestic development agenda could be more valuable than the present CER revenues. CDM can be an important starting point for developing countries to gradually make incremental greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction and limitation efforts. / QC 20110817