Prolonged imbalances between feeder cattle costs and the pricing opportunities being offered cause highly variable placements of cattle into feedlots and variability in fed cattle prices. Such variability imposes costs on everyone in the system, from producer to consumer. Cattle feeders are in a position to exert the influence of very current and highly specific information on costs of feeding into trading levels for live cattle and feeder cattle futures. The tax treatment of speculative trades in the cattle futures markets has the potential to block participation of cattle feeders. To the extent that cattle feeders are effectively blocked from trading in futures in any capacity other than trades that meet the IRS "equal and opposite" criterion of a hedge, the correction of market imbalances may be impended. The economic viability of investments in cattle feeding can be influenced in a significant way by those market imbalances. This research examines the interaction of traders in the risk transfer and price discovery process in the live cattle markets. Econometric models over disaggregated data sets were developed to explain expected margin behavior in response to the changes in the positions held by identifiable and specific trader groups. In addition, trader behavior reactions to the levels of the feeding margins offered by the distant live cattle futures were examined. A weekly data series was constructed using the daily records of reporting trader positions in the live cattle futures at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. Feeding margins offered by the futures were calculated using cash prices for feeder cattle and feed fixed at the time of placements of feeder cattle on feed. The analysis was for the 1983-1987 period. The analysis indicates that increases in large, long (short) trading activity were associated with increases (decreases) in the expected margin offered by the futures. More importantly, the behavior of large speculators were found to exert a constraining influence on margin changes and to start the market correction at extreme levels of negative margins. This implies that cattle feeders, trading as large traders, could contribute to correcting the market imbalances if they were allowed to fully participate in the price discovery process. / Master of Science

Spekulationsköp i nyproduktion av bostadsrätter förekommer i allt större utsträckning och antalet spekulationsköpare har ökat under senare år. Genom litteraturstudier samt intervjuer och enkäter med såväl byggherrar som spekulationsköpare och mäklare verksamma i nyproduktion har spekulationsmarknaden av nyproducerade bostadsrätter i Stockholms län utretts och kartlagts. Den generella spekulationsköparen är en man mellan 25-35 år med varierande kapitalstyrka som vill tjäna snabba pengar. Områden som är mest attraktiva för spekulationsköpare att investera i är centrala Stockholm och närförorter. Byggherrarna är samstämmiga i att spekulationsköp idag utgör ett problem främst med avseende på företagets affärsrisk. Mäklarna upplever inte spekulationsköp som ett problem. Både byggherrarna och mäklarna ser dock svårigheter i att förhindra spekulationsköp av nyproduktion eftersom det är svårt att identifiera vem som är spekulationsköpare. För att komma tillrätta med problematiken skulle samverkan mellan olika byggherrar och deras kundregister behöva komma till stånd, vilket strider mot befintlig lagstiftning. Efter granskning av köpprocessen i nyproduktion anser författarna att de mest riskfyllda spekulationsköparna kan förhindras genom att senarelägga upplåtelsen till tillträdet och då även låta köparen betala hela köpeskillingen som upplåtelseavgift. Idag betalas omkring 10 procent av den totala köpeskillingen som upplåtelseavgift upp till 6 månader innan tillträdet. Detta innebär att dagens köpare av nyproduktion inte behöver erlägga hela köpesumman förrän tillträde men kan ändå överlåta bostadsrätten till annan från upplåtelsen innan tillträde. Detta öppnar upp för handel med hög avkastning till låg insats. / Speculative buying of newly constructed condominiums has turned to be more common and the number of speculative buyers has increased in recent years. Through literature studies, surveys and interviews with developers as well as speculative buyers and real estate brokers within sales of new housing development, the speculation market of newly built condominiums in Stockholm have been investigated. In general, the most frequent speculation buyer is a man between 25-35 years with variable capital strength who want to make quick and easy money. Areas that are most attractive for speculative buyers to invest in are central Stockholm and the inner suburbs. The developers are unanimous in that speculative buying today is a problem mainly with respect to the company's business risk. The brokers do not experience speculative buying as a problem. Both developers and brokers see, however, difficulties in preventing speculative buying of new construction due to that it is difficult to identify who is a speculative buyer. To deal with the problem the developers would have to interact and share customer records, which is contrary to existing law. After examination of the buying process of new construction, the authors consider that the most risky speculative buyers can be prevented by delaying the concession and at that point also allow the buyer to pay the full purchase price fee. Today, buyers pay around 10 percent of the total purchase price as a concession fee up to 6 months before access. This means that today's buyers of new construction does not need to pay the entire purchase price until the access but can still sell the apartment to another person after the concession and before the access. This opens up for trade of high yield with a low effort.

I denna kandidatuppsats har den verkliga bostadsrättsmarknaden studerats ur ett perspektiv inriktat på spekulationsköp av nyproducerade bostadsrätter. Studien omfattar Stockholmsområdet och intervjuer med inblandade aktörer verksamma i områder har legat till grund för undersökningen. Byggbolag, fastighetsmäklare och spekulationsköpare har bistått med information som lett till insyn och fördjupning i spekulationsköpen som pågår av nyproducerade bostadsrätter. Samtliga parter är eniga om att spekulationsköp är vanligt förekommande på dagens bostadsmarknad. Under de senaste två åren har uppemot 30 procent av köpen inom nyproducerade bostadsrätter utgjorts av spekulationsköpare med syfte att göra en ekonomisk vinning. Det stora tidsspannet mellan köp och tillträde, som ofta uppgår till två år, utgör utrymme för bostadens marknadsvärde att stiga rejält i dagens uppåtgående bostadsmarknad. Tre grupper av spekulationsköpare har kunnat urskiljas. Dessa består först och främst av de rutinerade spekulationsköparna med stor koll på bostadsmarknadens prisutveckling. Den andra gruppen består av mer amatörmässiga spekulationsköpare som genom vänner hört hur stora vinster man kan göra. Den tredje gruppen utgörs av fastighetsmäklarna själva som givetvis är väl medvetna om prisutvecklingen, ofta före alla andra, och ser sin chans till snabba pengar. Gemensamt för dessa grupper är att det i hög grad rör sig om yngre män i 30-års åldern med en bra ekonomi. Små bostäder är av högst intresse men även större bostäder till en högre insats är aktuellt för de mer rutinerade köparna. Fastighetsmäklarna spelar en oberoende roll i spekulationsmarknaden, för dem utgör inte spekulationsköpen något problem. För byggherrarna är dock fenomenet problematiskt då det innebär negativa konsekvenser för företaget. Spekulationsköpen resulterar i fler avhopp, utnyttjande av företagens trygghetssystem, missnöjda slutkonsumenter samt en möjlig bidragande faktor till skenande priser och hysteri på bostadsrätter i Stockholm. Byggbolag har vidtagit flertalet åtgärder för att reglera spekulationsköpen. Bland annat förekommer begränsning till max ett pågående köp per kund, krav på lånelöfte, förhöjda kontantinsatser samt svarta interna listor på spekulationsköpare. Fastighetsmäklarna anser att byggbolagen innehar det största ansvaret för reglering av spekulationsköp då det är dem som prissätter bostäderna. Byggbolagen själva anser att ansvaret är fördelat hos flertalet aktörer såsom kommun, lagstiftning, bostadsrättsföreningar samt regleringar hos byggbolagen själva. / In this bachelor thesis the real housing market is studied from a perspective focused on speculative buying of newly built condominiums. The study covers the Stockholm area and interviews with the involved actors operating in this zone have been the basis for the investigation. Construction companies, real estate agents and speculative buyers have provided information that’s aided transparency, and depth of understanding in speculative purchases of newly built condominiums. All parties agree that speculative buying is common in today’s housing market. Over the past two years, up to 30 percent of the purchases of newly constructed condominiums have consisted of speculative buyers out to make a quick profit. The time span between purchase and access, which can be up to two years, allows the property time to react to the current market in Stockholm’s ever-rising housing market. Three groups of speculative buyers have been distinguished; the first group consists primarily of seasoned speculative buyers with a keen eye on price trends and today's housing market. The second group is more amateur, have little experience, but are well informed from friends and acquaintances that large profits can be made. The third group consists of real estate agents, they of course, are well aware of price trends often before anyone else, and see an opportunity for fast profits. Common to all three groups are males in their 30’s, with substantial backing. Smaller condominiums are of greatest interest but also larger ones appear among the more routine buyers. Real estate agents play an independent role in the speculative market, for them the speculative buying is not a problem. For building companies, however, the phenomenon has become problematic because it implies negative consequences for the company. Speculation purchases result in more defections, abuse of security systems, and disgruntled end users - as well as contributing to already soaring house prices in Stockholm. Construction companies have taken several measures to regulate speculative purchases. One of the factors, among others, is the limit of one single on going purchase per customer. Also restricted are increased cash contributions and notably the inclusion of internal black lists used to expose offending buyers. Real estate agents believe that construction companies hold most of the responsibility for the regulation of speculative buying, because they are setting the prices. Construction companies themselves believe that the responsibility is shared by stakeholders such as municipalities, legislation, housing associations – but should also expect internal regulating of their own companies.

published_or_final_version / Urban Planning / Master / Master of Science in Urban Planning

This paper investigates whether Tobin tax would be effective to reduce exchange rate volatility. When the rational speculators observe different temporarily shocks and take Tobin tax into account, the exchange rate will have either stable or unstable path through speculators’ changing optimal holdings. If the effect of current account shock dominates the effect of interest differential shock, the imposition of tax will stabilize the currency. This result is consistent with Tobin’s view. On the contrary, if the effect of interest differential shock dominates the effect of current account shock, the imposition of tax will destabilize the currency. The best policy in this case is to let international capitals move freely.

Dans une perspective de sociologie économique attentive à l’influence de la matérialité du produit sur les modalités de sa mise en marché, cette thèse analyse l’évolution des liens marchands qui organisent le commerce de poudre de lait entre un lieu de production (la France) et un lieu de consommation (le Mali). La première partie étudie la genèse du marché mondial de la poudre de lait et son évolution marquée par la libéralisation des politiques agricoles qui renforce la prégnance des mécanismes marchands. La sujétion des producteurs laitiers, français et maliens, au marché mondial est toutefois limitée par le caractère imparfait de la substitution entre les deux matières premières laitières utilisées dans les procès de transformation : la poudre de lait (produit du commerce international) et le lait cru à la circulation marchande restreinte. La seconde partie s’appuie sur deux enquêtes ethnographiques. La première examine la mise en valeur internationale de la poudre de lait par des traders dont le travail spéculatif est d’autant plus valorisé que le produit est rare et ses prix futurs, incertains. La saisonnalité de la production et la périssabilité du produit limitent toutefois leur pouvoir spéculatif. La seconde, effectuée au marché de Bamako, s’intéresse à la traduction de la norme marchande internationale (rapport entre une qualité et un prix) le long de deux circuits de distribution, distingués selon que la poudre est conditionnée industriellement ou artisanalement. L’efficacité du circuit artisanal tient, en partie, au fait que, en permettant une adaptation rapide par la qualité ou les quantités, il s’ajuste au plus près au contexte international marqué par la volatilité des prix et l’irrégularité des qualités disponibles. / This research is based on economic sociology approaches focusing on the influence of materiality of products on their marketization. It analyses the evolution of market relationships that organize trading of powdered milk between a production area (France) and a consumption area (Mali). The first part studies the genesis of powdered milk's world market and its evolution, characterised by a phase of liberalization of agricultural policies that strenghten market mecanisms. The dependence of French and Malian milk producers on the world market is nevertheless limited, due to an imperfect substituability of the two dairy products used for processing: powdered milk (produced for international trade) and raw milk which has a limited circulation capacity. The second part of the research is based on two ethnographic studies. The first one considers the international valuation of powdered milk by traders whose speculative activity becomes more valuable when products are rare and future prices uncertain. Production seasonality and product perishability limit however their speculation capacity. The second study was carried out in Bamako's market. It deals with the translation of international market norms (relationship between a quality and a price) along two distribution channels, differentiated by the type of powdered milk conditioning (industrial or artisanal). The efficiency of the artisanal value chain relies partly on its fast adaptation through quality or quantities. Thus it adjustes to the international context of price volatility and irregularity of available qualities.

Die erste Studie analysiert den Einfluss spekulativer Aktivität auf die Renditen und die Volatilität von Edelmetallterminpreisen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die spekulative Aktivität kurzfristig keinen Einfluss auf die Edelmetallterminpreise hat. Langfristig, auf monatlicher Basis, beeinflussen sie jedoch die Renditen der Edelmetallterminpreise. Die zweite Studie untersucht, ob Händleraktivitäten unterschiedlicher Marktteilnehmer den Beitrag des Terminmarktes zur Preisfindung und die Konvergenzgeschwindigkeit zwischen Rohstoffkassa- und Terminpreisen beeinflussen. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass Händleraktivitäten den Beitrag der Rohstoffterminmärkte zur Preisfindung nicht signifikant beeinflussen. Spekulanten verbessern die Konvergenzrate und Index Trader verschlechtern sie. Die dritte Studie analysiert den Einfluss der Marktstruktur auf Weizenterminpreise. Die Ergebnisse zeigen, dass sich aufgrund der Dominanz physischer Händler, in Verbindung mit einer geringen Beteiligung anderer Händler, der Terminpreis des harten Frühlingsweizens von der fundamentalen Entwicklung abgekoppelt hat. Die vierte Studie vergleicht den Einfluss von Nachrichten zum Angebot und Nachfrage mit dem Einfluss der Veröffentlichungen von Händlerpositionen auf die Getreideterminpreise. Während fundamentale Nachrichten weiterhin wichtig für die Preisbildung auf Getreideterminmärkten sind, ist die Bedeutung der Veröffentlichung von Händlerpositionen auf dem Mais- und Weizenterminmarkt verhältnismäßig gestiegen. Die fünfte Studie untersucht die Absichten unterschiedlicher Händler und inwieweit die Interaktion zwischen verschiedenen Händlern die Preisbildung an Rohstoffterminmärkten beeinflusst. Wir zeigen, dass Spekulanten Momentum-Strategien verfolgen und Hedger gegen den Markt handeln. Die Interaktions-Analyse zeigt, dass Spekulanten und Hedger die wichtigsten Händlergruppen für die Preisbildung auf Rohstoffterminmärkten sind. / The first study analyzes the impact of speculative activity on precious metals’ futures returns and volatility. Our results demonstrate that speculative activity does not affect precious metals’ futures returns in the short run. However, in long-term they influence precious metals’ futures returns on a monthly base. The second study examines how trading activities of different market participants influence the contribution of the futures market to price discovery and the rate of convergence between commodity spot and futures markets. The results show that the trading activities do not significantly contribute to price discovery in commodity futures markets. Considering the rate of convergence between spot and futures prices, we find that speculators improve while index traders impair the rate of convergence. The third study analyzes the impact of the market structure on wheat futures prices. The findings reveal that the price of hard red spring futures decoupled from its fundamental development because of the dominant presence of physical traders, combined with a low participation of other traders. The fourth study analyzes the impact of fundamental news on grain futures prices compared to the impact of the publication of traders’ positions. The results show that fundamental news remain an important source for pricing in grain futures markets. Nevertheless, a shift of importance from fundamental news to the publication of traders’ positions is observed in corn and wheat futures markets. The fifth study aims to reveal the motives behind the position changes of different market participants and how the interaction between the different traders affects prices in commodity futures markets. We find that speculators are driven by momentum trading and hedgers are contrarian traders. The interaction analysis demonstrates that on average speculators and hedgers appear to be the most important traders influencing pricing in commodity markets.

Made available in DSpace on 2016-08-10T10:50:17Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 ANA FLAVIA OLIVEIRA MARTINHO.pdf: 5912886 bytes, checksum: 4a78df0eedf866f5be3c642c764fe310 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2016-03-15 / In this work we show the real estate valuation process of the buildings in the vicinity of urban parks. Such green areas are marketing tools for real estate speculation and promotion of municipal administration. As a first step, a literature review on the main themes to be approached during the research was performed and then the classical and recent references about the history of urban parks were listed up. Also, the references about contemporaneous cities, city marketing and the linking of these subjects to real estate speculation were submitted to the same process. Subsequently, the urban parks were analyzed in the historical context of Goiania based on authors who have been involved in the study of the occupation and formation processes of the city and also in the real estate dynamics that is presented in the state capital of Goias. To analyze the effectiveness or urban parks as an estate appreciation vectors in Goiania, the value researches were taken, per square meter of projects under construction, which were located near and far to urban parks such as Bosque dos Buritis, Lake of the Roses and Areiao. All the information was assigned by real estate and construction companies. In this stage was possible to conclude that the parks that have more recent consolidation, as Areiao, have a reasonable difference price between the categories analyzed according to the distance. Furthermore, the first park that has been installed in Goiania does not have a significant difference price. This is the case of Bosque dos Buritis, which was the first park between those that have been analyzed. The Lago das Rosas presents a particular aspect that is the marketing which was always linked to the park. So, the projects surrounding this park are highly valued since seventies, particularly those bordering the green area. Finally, the third step of this work was based on the active search for data about the historical appreciation of the surrounding to the parks. These data were analyzed under the concepts of city marketing and real estate speculation of the areas taken as growth vectors known to be the south region of Goiania. It follows that the parks acts as a marketing tool for the surrounding projects appreciation and then overestimating the urban land an also promoting the marketing maneuvers and real estate speculation. / O presente trabalho discorre a respeito do processo de valorização imobiliária dos edifícios no entorno de parques urbanos, sendo essas áreas verdes instrumentos de marketing para a especulação imobiliária e promoção da administração municipal. Em uma primeira etapa foi realizado um levantamento bibliográfico sobre as principais temáticas a serem abordadas ao longo da pesquisa, elencando-se referencias clássicas e recentes sobre a história dos parques urbanos, sobre as cidades contemporâneas, o city marketing e a ligação desses através da especulação imobiliária. A posteriori, os parques urbanos foram analisados no contexto histórico de Goiânia tendo como base autores que se dedicaram ao estudo do processo de ocupação e formação da cidade e da dinâmica imobiliária tão presente na capital goiana. Para analisar a efetividade dos parques urbanos como vetores de valorização imóvel na capital, foram tomadas pesquisas de valores, por metro quadrado, de empreendimentos em construção, que se localizavam próximos e distantes aos parques urbanos Bosque dos Buritis, Lago das Rosas e Areião. Todas as informações foram cedidas pelas construtoras e imobiliárias. Concluiu-se nesta etapa que, os parques que possuem adensamento mais recente, como Areião, possuem uma diferença razoável de preço entre as categorias analisadas segundo a distância. Já o Bosque dos Buritis, que foi o primeiro parque dentre os analisados a serem instalados em Goiânia, não apresentam uma diferença de preço tão significativa. O Lago das Rosas apresenta uma característica em especial: o marketing que desde sempre esteve atrelado ao parque. Portanto, os empreendimentos que o rodeiam são, desde a década de 70 muito valorizados, em especial os limítrofes da área verde. Por fim, a terceira etapa do trabalho baseou-se na busca ativa por dados a cerca da valorização histórica do entorno dos parques objetos desta pesquisa, analisados sob conceitos de city marketing e especulação imobiliária de áreas tidas como vetores de crescimento, sabidamente a região sul de Goiânia. Concluiu-se que os parques atuam sim como elemento de marketing para valorização dos empreendimentos do entorno supervalorizando o solo urbano e favorecendo manobras de marketing e especulação imobiliária.

En prenant le cas de l'évaluation des gérants d'actifs financiers par les investisseurs professionnels, la présente thèse étudie les réponses que des agents économiques apportent aux problèmes pratiques que pose la nécessité d'agir et de justifier son action en situation d'incertitude.La thèse marie, dans une perspective durkheimienne, une analyse morphologique du champ de la gestion d'actifs et une analyse des pratiques d'évaluation des gérants par les investisseurs professionnels.La démarche empirique consiste à rassembler des matériaux variés afin d'enregistrer les multiples formes de manifestation d'un fait social total. Les uns sont produits au cours d'une enquête ethnographique du champ de la gestion d'actifs: ce sont des entretiens semi-directifs, des observations directes d'interactions sociales, et des artefacts produits et utilisés dans le cadre des pratiques étudiées. Les autres, statistiques ou données institutionnelles, sont collectés auprès d'acteurs de la gestion d'actifs. Tous ces matériaux sont analysés de manière interprétative.L'analyse morphologique découvre les divisions, les articulations et les proportions des organisations où est pratiquée la gestion d'actifs financiers. L'autonomisation du champ professionnel de la gestion d'actifs s'accompagne d'une division du travail qui place en son centre les gérants, constitués en spéculateurs, c'est-à-dire en agents économiques dont l'action ne s'intéresse qu'aux variations de prix, par opposition aux acteurs dont la fonction est de prolonger le geste spéculatif par un geste marchand. La structure de rémunération des sociétés de gestion nourrit un conflit entre les gérants d'actifs et les commerciaux sur le partage du profit, dont la résolution conduit à une polarisation des sociétés entre un modèle industriel et un modèle artisanal.L'évaluation des gérants d'actifs par les investisseurs professionnels prend son sens dans le cadre de l'appréciation de l'efficacité technique des actions spéculatives par des sujets exposés à une incertitude financière qu'ils s'efforcent de réduire. Les investisseurs professionnels ordonnent leurs pratiques d'évaluation entre une analyse "quantitative" et une analyse "qualitative" des gérants évalués. Contrairement à ce que l'usage de cette forme de classification suggère, ce n'est pas le recours à la quantification ou au calcul en tant que tels qui différencie ces deux types d'analyse, comme s'il s'agissait de deux régimes épistémiques imparfaits mais complémentaires. C'est leur statut dans la relation fonctionnelle qui les lie l'un à l'autre: recherche de la forme de l'incertitude financière d'une part, et recherche des conditions sociales qui l'ont générée d'autre part. Imparfaitement liée aux phénomènes auxquels elle s'applique, la forme de classification "quanti/quali" correspond aux ressources acquises par les investisseurs professionnels au cours de leur trajectoire de socialisation, et mobilisées dans le cadre d'une division sociale du travail où les pratiques d'analyse sont partagées entre des postes et des positions différenciées au sein des organisations.Ce travail complexifie et enrichit la compréhension des pratiques financières et des pratiques de réduction de l'incertitude en montrant qu'elle ne peut faire l'économie de leurs soubassements sociaux. Elle précise le domaine de validité d'une forme de classification et offre aux acteurs concernés le moyen de discuter à nouveaux frais l'efficacité ou la pertinence de leurs procédés d'analyse. / This dissertation uses the evaluation of asset managers by professional investors as a case for the study of the ways in which economic agent deal with the necessity of acting and to give account of one's actions while facing uncertainty.This dissertation follows a durkheimian approach as it combines a morphological analysis of the asset management field with an analysis of evaluation practices of asset managers by professional investors.Empirical materials of various kinds have been gathered, in order to record the numerous ways in which a total social fact manifests itself. Some of the materials derive from an ethnographic research in the field of asset management: these are semi-directive interviews, direct observations of social interactions, and artefacts produced and used as part of the practices that the research investigates. The other materials are statistics or institutional data that have been collected during the field research. Interpretive analysis has been applied to them.The morphological analysis of asset management as a social field highlights the divisions, articulations and proportions of the organizations where financial asset management practices are carried out. The autonomization of asset management as a professional field goes along with a social division of labour that is structured around the asset managers. It makes them become speculators, that is economic agents who focus solely on price variations. By contrast, other actors ensure that the speculative movement is followed by a fully carried out trade. The income structure of asset management firms feeds a conflict between asset managers and salespersons about the distribution of profit. The resolution of this conflict leads to a polarization of asset management firms between firms following a model designed after the manufacturing industry, and firms following a model leaning towards craftmanship.The evaluation of asset managers by professional investors makes sense in a social frame where it stands as an appraisal of the efficiency of speculative actions undertaken by agents who try and reduce the financial uncertainty that they face. Professional investors classify their evaluation practices among a "quantitative" analysis and a "qualitative" analysis of asset managers. Although this form of classification may suggest that the two types of analysis cover two kinds of knowledge that are imperfect yet complementary, it is not quantification or calculation per se that differentiates between them. They are functionally related to each other: assessment of the form taken by financial uncertainty on the one hand, and search for the social conditions that caused uncertainty to take such form on the other hand. The form of classification "quantitative/qualitative" meets imperfectly the phenomena to which it is applied. It matches the social distribution of resources that professional investors gained during their socialization trajectory, and that they mobilized in the frame of a specific kind of social division of labour, where analytic practices are also distributed among differentiated positions within organizations.This dissertation complexifies and enriches the understanding of financial practices and of uncertainty reduction practices by showing that such understanding cannot forget their social foundations. It circumscribes the domain of validity of a specific form of classification and it provides interested actors with tools with which they can discuss anew the efficiency or the relevance of their analytic processes.

Topic of this master thesis is to examine whether weather related mood changes are in correlation with price of stocks. Thesis focuses on middle Europe stock market indexes PX, SAX, ATX and DAX. Research is based on relationship between daily cloud cover and development of the indexes form 1995 to 2012. It also focuses on comparison of several different models, especially models of seemingly unrelated regressions. It shows that indexes PX and ATX are significantly negatively correlated with local cloud cover. Use of seemingly unrelated regressions offers slightly better results. The relation between cloud cover and stock indexes is not strong enough to be used for weather based speculations