L’objet de cette thèse en science politique est de dégager, à partir de l’histoire politique du Rwanda et de ses influences ou relations extérieures africaines et internationales (notamment avec le Burundi, la RD du Congo, l’Ouganda, l’Allemagne, la Belgique, la France, le Royaume-Uni, les États-Unis, l’ONU, l’UE, l’UA), les causes de l’effondrement de l’État rwandais (lors du génocide de 1994) et les pistes de solutions qui pourraient aider à sa reconstruction et/ou reconstitution. Cela pourrait aussi servir d’exemple à d’autres pays (notamment d’Afrique, d’Asie et d’Amérique latine) qui utilisent l’appartenance ethno-raciale et/ou régionale de la population, la mobilisation des gens sur base de leurs identités réelles ou supposées, la politisation des races ou des différences, la racialisation de la politique, le copinage politique ou tout simplement les ‘’voies négatives’’ de l’ethnopolitique comme fondement intellectuel ou label idéologique du pouvoir. Une réponse durable aux sanglants affrontements et aux crises politiques incessantes qui agitent le Rwanda et le Burundi pourrait être un projet politique autre qu’ethno-racial (basé plutôt sur la paix, la démocratie et le développement humain), la séparation géographique de type "Hutuland" et "Tutsiland" « par des moyens pacifiques et par voie d'accord », (selon les accords d'Helsinki de 1975 de l’OSCE dans le prolongement de la Charte de l’ONU sur le droit des peuples à disposer d’eux-mêmes de 1945, art.1 et de 1966, art.1) dans le scénario de l’ancien Ruanda-Urundi, mais avec chacun une seule communauté, et l’intégration régionale à l’instar de l’Union européenne, tout en respectant le droit international. / The purpose of this PhD thesis in political science is to pinpoint, based on the political history of Rwanda and its external influences or relations at african and international level (particularly with Burundi, the DR of Congo, Uganda, Germany, Belgium, France, the United Kingdom, the United States, the UN, the EU and the AU), the causes of the collapse of the Rwandan state (during the 1994 genocide) and the potential solutions that could help to rebuild and/or reform it. This could also serve as an example to other countries (particularly those in Africa, Asia and Latin America), which use the ethno-racial and/or regional affiliation of the population, the mobilization of people based on their real or supposed identities, the politicization of races or differences, racialization of politics, political cronyism or quite simply the “negative ways” of ethnopolitics as an intellectual basis or ideological label of power. A sustainable response to the bloody conflicts and endless political crises afflicting Rwanda and Burundi could be a political project rather than an ethno-racial one (based more on peace, democracy and human development), geographical separation in the style of "Hutuland" and "Tutsiland" “by peaceful means and through agreement” (according to the 1975 Helsinki Accords of the OSCE in the extension of the UN Charter on the right of peoples to self-determination in 1945, Art.1 and 1966, Art.1) in the setting of the former Ruanda-Urundi, but each with a separate community and regional integration in a manner similar to that of the European Union, while respecting international law.

PROBLÉMATIQUE La violence collective, à travers les guerres civiles et autres conflits politiques violents, constitue un lourd fardeau pour la santé publique. Plus de la moitié des décès causés par l’ensemble des conflits dans le monde entier se trouvent en Afrique. L’une des conséquences est le déplacement massif des populations qui se réfugient vers l’extérieur du pays, mais aussi de plus en plus à l’intérieur des frontières nationales. Ceux qui ne traversent pas sont appelés déplacés internes. Leur état de santé est au moins aussi vulnérable que celui de réfugiés, mais est très peu documenté. De 1993 à 2005, le Burundi a plongé dans une crise politico-sociale sans précédent. En 2001, environ 10 % de la population vivaient dans des camps de déplacés. OBJECTIF Documenter l’état de santé des personnes déplacées par la guerre au Burundi et identifier ses déterminants. CADRE CONCEPTUEL Le cadre conceptuel est basé sur la modélisation de l’association entre les événements traumatiques, les facteurs de l’environnement post-traumatique et l’état de santé des déplacés internes burundais. MÉTHODE Une enquête transversale a été menée dans deux camps de déplacés au Burundi. Les données ont été obtenues de façon rétrospective sur l’exposition aux événements traumatiques et de manière transversale pour l’état de santé et les facteurs de l’environnement post-traumatique. Les participants ont été interrogés sur les événements traumatiques vécus personnellement ou par leurs proches selon une courte échelle élaborée à cet effet. De même, les facteurs de l’environnement post-traumatique ont été documentés. Pour la mesure de l’état de santé, un questionnaire comportant certains des 17 items du profil de santé de Duke a été utilisé. Deux traductions ont été réalisées et plusieurs items ont été adaptés. RÉSULTATS Les événements traumatiques vécus par les déplacés internes burundais sont négativement associés à l’état de santé physique, à l’état de santé sociale, à l’état de santé perçu et, positivement, avec l’incapacité. De même, plusieurs facteurs de l’environnement post-traumatique sont associés à l’état de santé. Par contre, certaines associations sont à interpréter selon leurs interactions avec les événements traumatiques. Celles-ci agissent parfois comme modificateurs d’effet, en amortissant ou en amplifiant le lien associatif initial entre certains événements traumatiques et l’état de santé des déplacés. CONCLUSION : Les résultats font ressortir un effet différentiel associé d’une part aux événements traumatiques vécus précédemment et d’autre part, en interaction avec ces derniers, à l’environnement post-traumatique. Notre thèse en arrive à la conclusion que les facteurs de l’environnement post-traumatique constituent des déterminants importants de l’état de santé des déplacés de guerre. / INTRODUCTION Collective violence in the form of civil war and other violent political conflict places a heavy burden on public health. More than half of all deaths caused by conflicts around the globe occur in Africa. One of the consequences of such conflict is the massive displacement of populations seeking refuge either outside their country or, increasingly, within their country’s borders. Those who remain within their country are called internally displaced persons. Although little documented, the health of these people is every bit as vulnerable as that of refugees. From 1993 to 2005, Burundi was plunged into a socio-political crisis of unprecedented proportions. In 2001, approximately 10% of the population was living in displaced person camps. OBJECTIVE To document the health status of persons displaced by the war in Burundi and identify its determinants. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK The conceptual framework is based on a modelling of the association between traumatic events, factors in the post-trauma environment and the health status of internally displaced Burundians. METHOD This cross-sectional study was carried out in two displaced persons camps in Burundi. It uses retrospective data on exposure to traumatic events and cross-sectional data on health status and factors in the post-trauma environment. Using a short scale especially designed for this study, the participants answered questions about the traumatic events that they or those close to them had experienced. Factors in the post-trauma environment were also documented. To measure health status, a questionnaire containing some of the 17 items of the Duke Health Profile was used. Two translations were made, and several of the items were adapted to the particular context. RESULTS The traumatic events experienced by displaced persons in Burundi are negatively associated with physical health, social health and perceived health, and positively associated with disability. A number of factors in the post-trauma environment were also associated with health status. However, some of these associations are difficult to interpret because of their interactions with traumatic events. These interactions sometimes act as effect modifiers by diminishing or amplifying the initial association between certain traumatic events and the health status of displaced persons. CONCLUSION The results reveal a differential response associated with, on the one hand, previously experienced traumatic events and, on the other hand, the post-trauma environment in interaction with these traumatic events. This thesis concludes that factors in the post-trauma environment constitute important determinants of the health of persons displaced by war.

L’histoire de l’intégration régionale dans les Grands Lacs est récente. Il faut attendre la colonisation pour voir le Burundi et le Rwanda entrer véritablement dans ce processus. Le mandat belge oriente les deux territoires vers le cœur de l’Afrique. Cette période va influencer la première intégration institutionnelle avec la Communauté Economique des Pays des Grands Lacs. Il convient toutefois de rester mesuré, puisque celle-ci est avant tout une intégration de papier. Elle est similaire aux autres adhésions des deux pays à cette période, qui se révèlent être en inadéquation avec leurs circuits commerciaux. Les organisations régionales sont également inefficaces pour régler la problématique des réfugiés. Les années 1993 et 1994 sont des ruptures internes pour le Burundi et le Rwanda. Elles provoquent également un renversement régional, avec la désintégration de l’Afrique des Grands Lacs : ce sont les guerres congolaises. Dans le même temps, les deux pays se réorientent vers l’Afrique de l’Est, où l’EAC leur permet enfin un réel désenclavement. L’intégration du Rwanda semble toutefois plus efficace que celle du Burundi. / The history of regional integration in the Great Lakes is recent. To see Burundi and Rwanda truly enter into this process you have to wait the colonization. The Belgian mandate turns the two territories to the heart of Africa. This period will influence the first institutional integration with the Economic Community of Great Lakes Countries. However, we should remain cautius, since it is primarily paper integration. It is similar to other memberships of the two countries in this period, which is proving to be inadequate with their commercial channels. Regional organizations are also ineffective to resolve the refugee issue. The years 1993 and 1994 are internal ruptures for Burundi and Rwanda. They also cause a regional reversal, with the disintegration of the African Great Lakes : these are the Congolese wars. At the same time, both countries are shifting towards East Africa, where the EAC finally allows them a real opening up. The integration of Rwanda, however, seems more effective than that of Burundi.

En réponse aux cycles de violences de masse et à la guerre civile qui ont jalonné son histoire douloureuse, le Burundi s’est engagé dans un processus de justice transitionnelle, officiellement depuis la signature des Accords de paix d’Arusha en 2000. Malgré la mobilisation des énergies internationales et l’omniprésence de la problématique au sein du débat public depuis douze ans, seules des consultations nationales destinées à recueillir l’avis de la population burundaise sur le sujet ont été organisées en 2009. Á l’aube de la mise en place d’une Commission Nationale de Vérité et de Réconciliation, à laquelle devrait être associé un tribunal spécial, le constat de la nature globale de la justice transitionnelle s’impose. Cette globalité s’exprime à travers le recours à des instruments à la fois judiciaires et extra-judiciaires mais également à des outils ayant vocation à s’appliquer de façon immédiate (ou conjoncturelle) et durable (ou structurelle). D’une part, dans une perspective normative et légaliste, le processus global de justice transitionnelle semble être cause d’inerties et de blocages comme peut a priori l’illustrer le cas du Burundi. D’autre part, à la lumière d’une approche systémique et inclusive, la globalité est au contraire source d’évolutions et d’émulations qui stimulent la créativité de la justice transitionnelle comme le démontre également le Burundi. Cette justice elle-même en transition est en réalité une justice réconciliatrice porteuse de doutes mais aussi d’espoirs. Elle est une justice complexe qui s’invente chaque jour, qui ne peut être efficace et efficiente qu’à condition d’être adaptée, légitime et appropriée par ceux à qui elle est destinée. Elle implique que soient trouvées des réponses satisfaisantes aux souffrances et aux besoins indissociables des victimes et des auteurs des violences de masse d’hier et des injustices sociales d’aujourd’hui. Elle a aussi pour ambition de prévenir la commission des crimes du futur en participant au renforcement de l’État de droit et, de façon plus globale, de rompre avec l’histoire de violences symboliques et actives subies et perpétrées au Burundi. / As an answer to cycles of mass violence in Burundi, a transitional justice process has been opened. The Burundian case study presents some particularities among this kind of process. Whereas the Arusha peace and reconciliation agreement for Burundi in 2000 decided setting up two transitional justice instruments, a special court and a Truth Reconciliation Commission, the transitional justice process has not begun yet. Only National Consultations were organized in 2009. The negotiations and the mediation occurred during the ongoing war. There were no winners and no losers but just armed men who decided to discuss in order to conquer the power and then to keep it. That may explain why negotiations were so longer and staggered. A sort of consociativisme system was set up in Burundi as the model organization of power-sharing. Inside the politic game of power-sharing the peace-justice dilemma appears through instrumentalization of retributive justice which is assimilated to justice and the truth and pardon which claim referring to peace. Another particularity is found regarding numerous judicial and legal reforms relatively to children rights, lands conflict, electoral law or Criminal Code. On the eve of the implementation of the Truth Reconciliation Commission, the global nature of the transitional justice process is obvious. The Burundian context appears as an illustration of the extensive meaning of transitional justice which represents a justice in transition. The global nature of the matter is emerging through its temporal and disciplinary versatility. On one hand, transitional justice seems to be past justice, currently justice and future justice at the same time and on the other hand it may take several forms out of the official one, initially predicted. In a legalist and normative view, global nature of justice in transition might cause deadlock regarding the case of Burundi. In a systemic and multidisciplinary perspective, global nature of justice in transition reveals change capacities according to the case of Burundi. What really matter in such transitional justice process is relieving victims and perpetrators’sufferings which are undeniably linked and bringing answers to each protagonist of the crime as to the society with the permanent and ambitious aim of reconciliation.

This thesis is a contribution to a hitherto neglected area of research: The African Pentecostal Churches, that do not belong to those called African Indigenous Churches (AICs). It is a case study from the perspective of southern Burundi, the periphery of the ancient kingdom. The Pentecostal Movement in Burundi was born in the encounter between Swedish Pentecostal missionaries and the population in the southern part of the country. This study highlights what happened in that encounter. The thesis consists of six parts. The first is a survey of the Pentecostal Movement in Sweden. The diachronic structure of parts two to five focuses on the development within the Burundian Pentecostal Churches and their relationship to the Burundian society 1935-1960. In the sixth part the diachronic approach is augmented by structural analyses, showing how aspects in the Pentecostal Movement developed. The Pentecostal missionaries accepted in part the traditional world view, the belief in a spiritual world and non-rational explanations to misfortunes in life. They encouraged the Burundians to do spiritual experiences, and especially the baptism in the Holy Ghost. The Burundian evangelists and church elders played a decisive role. It was their task to reformulate the Pentecostal message in Kirundi, which was not spoken by the missionaries. They moulded the message into a Burundian Pentecostal message, at the same time respecting the teaching of the early missionaries. They succeeded in doing that so well that the Pentecostal Movement became a popular movement, in certain places the dominating Christian denomination, in spite of the parallel work done by the Catholic Church, encouraged and supported by the Belgian state. This thesis builds on material taken mainly from unpublished sources from archives in Burundi, Sweden, Rome, Great Britain and Denmark. These are supplemented by interviews, most of them made by the author.

With few exceptions, not enough attention has been paid to the phenomenon of ethnic minority rule over hostile majorities in the studies of ethnic conflict. This thesis attempts to account for the ability of ethnic minorities to rule over hostile majorities for continuous periods of time, and to devise a theory for the study of this phenomenon by comparing three cases: the Alawis in Syria, the Tutsis in Burundi and the Sunni Muslim minority in Iraq. The major argument of the thesis is that the phenomenon in question does not occur randomly. There are certain conditions that motivate an ethnic minority to seek political power, and to be able to attain it and maintain continuous rule despite the hostility of the majority. Naturally, each case has its particular characteristics, yet common patterns underlying minority rule over hostile majorities can be found, and an analytical framework can bJe devised. The examination of the three cases leads to the conclusion that minority rule has to be explained by examining how the identities of the minority and majority were formed, how they have been shaped throughout the history of interaction between the two groups, and how they have influenced the relationship between the groups. There is also a need to study how political entrepreneurs manipulate traditional markers and modern issues for instrumental gains. On this basis, it is possible to understand the political salience of the identities, the level of hostility and the reasons why the minorities seek political power. Attaining it or retaining it, and maintaining it for a continuous period of time is dependent on an authoritarian government structure, which includes, indispensably, considerable army involvement in politics. Persistent minority rule is also dependent on its ability to legitimize itself, primarily by creating a unified identity. Success in forming such a unified identity implies a decrease in the saliency of elements of identity that' distinguish between the groups, and ultimately a decrease in the level hostility. This allows the minority rule to persist. If, however, this "unified identity" does not have the desired outcome of mollifying the majority, the ruling minority can, and will, use its military monopoly of coercive power to subdue internal opposition.

No description available.

The study explores the response of the Anglican diocese of Bujumbura to the challenge of urbanization, especially in the area of urban poverty. The introductory Chapter provides the framework within which the study will be conducted. It also includes a literature review, which is devoted to urban poverty showing how it could be addressed. In Chapter 2, the study analyses the context of urbanization in Burundi, particularly in the Bujumbura municipality, where urban poverty is reported to be high. It then highlights the Church’s missionary calling when it comes to the challenges of urbanization. Chapter 3 reports the findings of interviews and focus groups conducted with members of the nine Anglican parishes serving the Bujumbura residents. These findings are interpreted in Chapter 4 through the lens of the praxis cycle. Chapter 5 provides an effective model in the context of urban poverty. The study explored through the reasons behind urban poverty and proposes effective solutions to it. It aims at sensitizing the Church to be concerned about urban ministry and suggests an efficient model for eradicating poverty and bringing about a transformed community to be enjoyed by all the residents. This model will inspire both the Anglican Church, the other denominations, the faith-based organisations and whoever strives to serve urban residents. / Christian Spirituality, Church History and Missiology / D. Th. (Missiology-with specialisation in Urban Ministry)

This dissertation comprises four chapters, which mainly deal with female's participation in household decision-making, a very important aspect of female's bargaining power within the household and closely linked to female's empowerment. The first three chapters, which all deal with female's participation in household decision-making, are two sides of the same coin, in that while the first one delves into the determinants of female's participation in household decision-making, the second and third chapters deal with its beneficial consequences. The fourth chapter is linked with Chapter 1. As a matter of fact, the data used in Chapter 1 has been collected in Rural Burundi, in the framework of the FNRS/FRFC-funded project “Microfinance Services, Intra-household Behavior and Welfare in Developing Countries: A Longitudinal and Experimental Approach”, which funded my PhD scholarship. In 2012, the project funded data collection in Rural Burundi. In respect to the experimental component of the project, these are baseline data. The 2012 household survey targeted a sample of rural households that have been interviewed in 1998 and 2007. This is where the longitudinal design of the project comes into play. Independently from the experimental research, the longitudinal nature of the data, that is to say three waves of data (1998, 2007 and 2012), had the advantage of allowing panel analysis of interesting and relevant issues in development, including for example the long-term welfare effects of shocks at either individual or household levels.In Chapter 1, entitled “The Power of The Family: kinship and Intra-household Decision-making in Rural Burundi” and co-authored with Bram De Rock and Philip Verwimp, we delve into the determinants of female's participation in household decision-making, by laying a particular emphasis on the role of female's kinship. We show that in rural Burundi the characteristics of the female's kinship are highly correlated with her decision-making power. First, a female whose own immediate family is at least as rich as her husband's counterpart enjoys a greater say over children- and asset-related decision-making. Second, the size, relative wealth and proximity of the extended family also matter. Third, kinship characteristics prove to be more important than (standard) individual and household characteristics. Finally, we also show that the female's say over asset-related decision-making is positively associated with males' education, more than with female's education per se. All these correlation patterns can inform policies aiming at empowering women or targeting children through women's empowerment.In Chapter 2, entitled “The Returns of I Do: Multifaceted Female Decision-making and Agricultural Yields in Tanzania?”, I use the third round of the Tanzanian National Panel Survey to investigate the effect of multifaceted female's empowerment in agriculture on agricultural yields. The classic approach in the empirical literature on gender gap in agriculture includes the gender of the plot's owner/manager as the covariate of interest and interprets the associated coefficient estimate as the gender gap in agricultural productivity. Unlike this classic approach in the analysis of productivity differentials, my approach lays emphasis on the overlapping and interaction effects of manifold aspects of female's empowerment in agriculture, including female plot's ownership, female plot's management and female output's control. I find significant productivity gaps, which the classic empirical approach does not bring out in the same context. As compared to plots (solely) owned, managed and controlled by male, (i) plots merely owned by female and (ii) those owned & managed (but not controlled) by female are less productive, but those owned, managed & controlled by female are not. Furthermore, the latter are the more productive among plots at least owned by female. All these productivity gaps are predominantly explained by the structural effect, that is differences in productivity returns to observable production factors. Our findings are robust along a number of dimensions and suggest that female's management and control rights are of prime importance. Therefore, female plot's owners should be entitled the rights to manage their plot and, subsequently and most importantly, the rights to control the (agricultural) output of their work, for their productivity to be enhanced and the gender gap in agriculture to be closed. In Chapter 3, entitled “Say On Income and Children's Outcomes: Evidence from Nigeria”, I delve into the effect of female bargaining power on child education and labor outcomes in Nigeria. Female bargaining power is proxied by “female say on labor income”, rather than by her income per se. This is motivated by the fact the female labor force participation might be low in some contexts, while control over income is by all means what matters the most. The empirical methodology accounts for a number of empirical issues, including endogeneity and sample selection issues of female say on labor income, the multi-equation and mixed process features of the child outcomes, as well as the fact that hours of work are left-censored. My findings are consistent with the overall idea that female say on income leads to better child outcomes, rather than female income earning per se. Nevertheless, the type of income under female control, child gender and child outcome matter. Chapter 4, entitled “Violence Exposure and Welfare Over Time: Evidence From The Burundi Civil War” and co-authored with Marion Mercier and Philip Verwimp, investigates the relationship between exposure to conflict and poverty dynamics over time. We use a three-wave panel data from Burundi, which tracked individuals and reported local-level violence exposure in 1998, 2007 and 2012. Firstly, the data reveal that headcount poverty has not changed since 1998 while we observe multiple transitions into and out of poverty. Moreover, households exposed to the war exhibit a lower level of welfare than non-exposed households, with the difference between the two groups predicted to remain significant at least until 2017, i.e. twelve years after the conflict termination. The correlation between violence exposure and deprivation over time is confirmed in a household-level panel setting. Secondly, our empirical investigation shows how violence exposure over different time spans interacts with households' subsequent welfare. Our analysis of the determinants of households' likelihood to switch poverty status (i.e. to fall into poverty or escape poverty) combined with quintile regressions suggest that, (i) exposure during the first phase of the conflict has affected the entire distribution, and (ii) exposure during the second phase of the conflict has mostly affected the upper tail of the distribution: initially non-poor households have a higher propensity to fall into poverty while initially poor households see their propensity to pull through only slightly decrease with recent exposure to violence. Although not directly testable with the data at hand, these results are consistent with the changing nature of violence in the course of the Burundi civil war, from relatively more labor-destructive to relatively more capital-destructive. / Doctorat en Sciences économiques et de gestion / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Depuis les années 1990, le partage du pouvoir est l’option favorisée pour la consolidation de la paix dans les sociétés multi-ethniques. Or, une importante littérature a remis en cause sa capacité à consolider la paix sur le long terme. Ce mémoire questionne l’approche de l’ethnicité, des institutions et des relations peuple-élites dans la théorie du partage du pouvoir. Il propose de la réapprocher en se basant sur la théorie constructiviste de l’ethnicité, qui reconnaît la multiplicité et la relative fluidité des identités ethniques, sur une approche néo-institutionnaliste, qui étudie les interactions des institutions avec leur environnement, et en accordant une attention particulière au lien entre peuple et élites. Ce mémoire développe trois arguments principaux. 1–La politisation du clivage ethnique nuit au bon fonctionnement d’un système démocratique, menace la durabilité de la paix et transforme la nature de la violence. Le « succès » du partage du pouvoir peut donc être défini comme la dépolitisation de ce clivage. 2–La politisation du clivage ethnique n’est pas naturelle, mais résulte d’un processus dans lequel les institutions formelles et informelles ainsi que la violence jouent des rôles clés. 3–La dépolitisation du clivage ethnique est possible si des garanties pour représentation politique et la sécurité des catégories ethniques sont mises en place, et si des incitatifs pour la mobilisation d’identités non-ethniques sont apportés. Ces principes peuvent guider l’élaboration d’accords de partage du pouvoir. Ce mémoire théorique est complémenté par une étude de plausibilité qui se focalise sur le cas crucial du Burundi. / Since the 1990s, power-sharing has become the favoured option for peacebuilding in multi-ethnic societies. An important literature has however shed light on the limits of this approach and put into question its capacity to establish sustainable peace. This thesis questions three elements of powersharing theory: its approach of ethnicity, institutions and its elite-bias. It proposes to approach power-sharing theory through the lenses of a constructivist theory of ethnicity, which acknowledges the multiplicity and limited fluidity of ethnic identities; a neo-institutionalist approach of institutions, which pays attention to the interaction of institutions with their environment; and in paying attention to citizen-elite linkages. Three main arguments are developed: 1-The politicization of the ethnic cleavage is problematic since it hinders the good functioning of a democratic system, threaten the sustainability of peace, and transform the nature of violence. “Success” of power-sharing is thus defined as the depoliticization of ethnicity. 2-The politicization of ethnicity is not natural but results from a process in which formal and informal institutions as well as violence pay a key-role. 3-The depoliticization of the ethnic cleavage is, at least theoretically, possible if sufficient guarantees for the political representation and the security of the groups are established, and incentives are provided for the mobilization of non-ethnic identities. These principles may guide the design of power-sharing systems. This “theory proposing” thesis is complemented by a plausibility probe which focuses on the crucial case of Burundi.