摘要 台灣的信用卡市場近年來競爭越趨激烈，各家發卡銀行無不卯足全勁希望能成為業界信用卡新產品開發的領導者，以搶得市場的先機，故各種行銷手法推陳出新。而聯名信用卡便因此而堀起。聯名信用卡策略的使用不外乎提供信用卡品牌管理者一個在市場上突破困境的方法，例如，台新銀行與新光三越的合作、中國信託與中國石油的加油卡、萬泰銀行與京華城，這些異業結盟的行動，顯示信用卡產業及欲拓展業務範圍的企圖心。 因此，為了釐清上述品牌聯盟策略的各項課題，並提供台灣發卡銀行管理者在聯盟策略的應用，本研究將著重於品牌聯盟的重要議題，例如兩品牌之間在消費者的認知上是否需要具有一致性，而此一致性對於消費者品牌聯盟後評價又會造成何種影響，除此之外，台灣信用卡產業中最常使用的促銷方式有許多，本研究想要探討一個品牌聯盟，再加上什麼型式的促銷方式，才能使品牌聯盟的績效發揮到最大，故促銷型式也成為本研究想要探討的另一課題。 根據實驗結果發現「品牌權益的搭配方式」的確會影響消費者對於聯盟後品牌的評價，而「產品契合度」是另一個成功的品牌聯盟必須考慮的因素，產品契合度在過去品牌聯盟的文獻中一直是重要的變數，而在本研究中更加突顯「產品契合度」在信用卡異業結盟的思考策略中之重要性。本研究更進一步證實，在信用卡產業中，非價格導向的促銷方式會比價格導向的促銷方式在消費者的品牌評價上有正面增強的效果。而且品牌權益搭配方式和品契合度也有交互作用的存在。因此，本研究供管理者在思考信用卡品牌聯盟的行銷策略時一個選擇聯盟對象的準則。

台灣消費性信用緊縮之研究─以雙卡風暴為例 / Abstract Taiwan has suffered a credit crisis on unsecured lending products that began at the end of 2005. The default on credit cards and cash card products have incurred almost 300 billion NT dollars to be written off during the period from October 2005 to the end of 2007, hitting the highest amount of none-performing loans (NPL) for Taiwan’s plastic payment history. This thesis gives a comprehensive account on the development of credit cards and cash card products, while cross–examining their relation to (1) the over-banking phenomena, (2) the over-lending with proliferation of unsecured lending products, and (3) the stressed economy, and, in the end, provides my recommendation for unsecured consumer financial product development in Taiwan.

台灣信用卡市場自1982年全面開放以來，信用卡以驚人的速度不斷成長。但隨著信用卡簽帳金額、循環信用餘額的提高，以及2002年南韓信用卡泡沫危機的前車之鑑，信用卡逾期放款的風險控制也逐漸為政府相關主管機關所注意。藉由2003年7月至2004年10月，共16個月的月資料以及43間發卡機構，作追蹤資料的隨機效果模型分析，並採三種方向作為研究的角度，顯示較低逾放比的銀行，也許其風險管理及內部控制較為嚴謹，因此其信用卡部門之逾放情形也會較少。益本比則可以反映獲利能力較佳之銀行其放款品質較佳，因此可以推估其信用卡逾期放款的情形相對而言較不嚴重。持卡人循環信用餘額使用指數則反映出貸款者的還款能力。卡均循環信用餘額則是一項較為特殊的觀點。結果顯示台灣確發生了以卡養卡的情形，以致於在短期內，卡均循環信用餘額的提高反而會造成信用卡逾放比率的改善。最後，景氣動向指標成長率則反映出在景氣好的時候，持卡人比較有意願及能力償還其信用債款，因此持卡人逾期繳款的情形較不會發生。

我國的信用卡市場在民國八十二年全面開放以來，發展至今不過10餘年，已成為全球成長最快速的信用卡市場之一。但近年來也隨著信用卡業務已有相當顯著的成長，然而信用卡不僅只是一種支付工具，也屬於免擔保的信用融資，對發卡銀行而言，風險很高。故本文對於銀行要如何快速且正確的掌握客戶信用與還款能力，以防範呆帳發生，也變得日趨重要。 故本文利用Binary Quantile Regression可用於探討解釋變數對於被解釋變數在給定「特定分位數之下的邊際效果」，提供不同分位數的估計結果，可用於觀察被解釋變數的整個分配狀況。在實證上，二元分量迴歸模型不只可用來解釋平均的狀況，更常用來觀察分配尾端的情況。在以ROC與CAP的信用風險模型來驗證其Binary Quantile Regression的效力。

隨著金融自由化、國際化的趨勢，加上國民所得提高、電子化的普及，使得信用卡市場蓬勃發展，國內各大銀行紛紛積極投入信用卡發卡行列。台灣的信用卡市場競爭的程度，從各發卡銀行所提供消費者的各項附加服務，如辦卡送禮、持卡免年費、失卡零風險、購物優惠…等，幾乎都已是每一張信用卡的基本配備。 隨著卡債、卡奴的事件爆發，銀行業者舊有的信用卡行銷策略已經宣告失敗，但信用卡市場背後帶來的經濟效益，仍然是不容忽視，如今，要如何增加信用卡市場的佔有率已不是銀行業者的行銷重點，高佔有率並不一定就能帶來高經濟效益。銀行業者的行銷策略應該是做好信用卡市場區隔，找出不同特性的消費族群，依消費族者選擇信用卡的考量因素擬定行銷策略，進而提升市場競爭地位。 本研究選用四種模型建置方式，分別為羅吉斯迴歸、C5.0、CHAID以及類神經網路，經由分類矩陣評估比較四種模型，其中C5.0不論是在整體預測正確率、反查率或準確度，皆是高於其它三個模型，故最後選擇C5.0此一模型。 透過C5.0共獲得七項影響「是否有使用信用卡」之相關變數，其中「是否有出國旅行」、「經濟來源是否為自己」、「性別」、「是否畢業後找工作」、「是否有使用網路消費」、「認同環保意識」、「是否有投資或買保險」，此七項變數對使用信用卡消費具較大影響力，最後本研究會針對這些變數再給與發卡銀行建議。 【關鍵字】信用卡、資料採礦、C5.0、CHAID、類神經網路 / As the trend of financial liberalization and globalization and also the popularization of electronic business and the increase of domestic income, the credit card market has bloomed vigorously then ever, banks are urging on developing credit card markets. All those additional service of every bank could be seen as a clue to know the competitiveness in Taiwan, such as free gift, free annual fee, zero risk of losing cards, shopping discount…etc., and those service almost become a basic equipment of every credit card. With credit debt and credit card slaves increasing, bank’s former marketing strategies have failed. The economic benefits of credit card market still are not ignored. Today, how to increase market share of credit card is not the key point of bank’s marketing strategy. There is not necessary that high market share can bring high economic benefits. In order to follow this trend, the study aims to discover the corn factors of possessing credit cards through the application of Clementine 12.0 software. Since Decision Tree-C5.0 is excellent in the forecast accuracy and validity as compared to Logistic Regression, Decision Tree-CHAID and Neural Net were adopted in this research. Through using Decision Tree-C5.0, this study identified seven factors that have greater impact on using credit cards and they are”Whether respondent travel abroad”,“Is the source of income making by yourself”,“Gender”,“Do respondent look for jobs after graduating from school”,“Do respondent buy something on the internet”,“Approve the environmental awareness”.This research will chiefly use these seven factors to provide the marketing portfolio strategy recommendations for banks. Keywords：Credit Card, Data Mining, C5.0, CHAID, Neural Net

銀行個人金融中，信用卡產品的競爭相當激烈，而為了吸引持卡人消費，行銷人員也設計了許多的信用卡行銷優惠。現有銀行的資訊部門為了滿足新行銷方案的設計與行銷方案優惠的判斷，採取的作法是在現有的系統上不斷的新增外掛程式，來滿足新的需求，但這樣的作法會產生許多問題，每當一個新的行銷優惠方案產生後，就必須在現有系統上新增外掛，不但可能會危及現有系統的穩定度，同時這些外掛的系統會造成系統的複雜度，增加維護與修改的困難度與成本。 本研究運用邏輯符號以及物件導向的觀念，分析行銷人員設計信用卡行銷優惠方案，提出規則模型以及事實模型。規則模型提供了一套通用的邏輯符號架構，並將邏輯的表達透過XML的標準，轉化成電腦可處理的形式；而事實模型架構出通用的事實模版架構，提供在事實與實際資料庫對應上的處理標準。並透過以規則為基礎的推論機制，建構出實際的系統，來驗證研究的可行性。希望透過本研究的規則模型以及事實模型架構，將行銷人員的知識結構化與知識儲存，達到邏輯符號的可重複使用性與可延伸性，並提供了系統未來修改與延伸的彈性與準則，改善過去新增行銷優惠方案時，就必須增加外掛系統的問題。 / Competition for credit card is sharp in personal finance of banking and financial service industry. In order to attract customer to use credit card, the marketing staff designs lots of marketing campaigns. But for information system department of the bank, it takes more effort to manage and process these campaigns. The approach that the information system staff uses is to create lots of plug-in systems. But this approach harms the stability of the system architecture and increases the complexity of maintenance and cost. In this research, we use the concept of symbolic logic and object-oriented concept to analysis how the marketing staff designs the credit card campaigns and provide the rule model and fact model. The rule model provides standard symbolic logic architecture and uses the XML standard to transform logic symbols into RuleML. The fact model is a standard architecture and provides the mapping between facts and database. And we build a prototype rule-based system to validate the feasibility. The research contributes to construct and store the knowledge of credit card marketing campaign of the marketing staff by the rule model and the fact model. And the rule-based system in this research also provides flexibility and modifiability in the future to reform the drawback of original plug-in system approach.

企業透過併購為了要獲得更多資源以建立競爭優勢的策略。過去很多研究關注在兩家公司之間的流程與資源整合，而忽略合併後因為文化與系統整合的衝突而產生對顧客關係管理的影響。理論上，合併後的公司除了獲得更多資源之外也要能夠獲得更多的顧客，但是實際上因為兩家公司組織間擁有不同的企業流程、文化與資訊系統，有可能無法維持顧客關係的水準。本研究的目的希望了解企業併購對顧客關係管理的影響以及希望找出影響顧客關係管理的成功因素。本研究選擇金融產業的信用卡業務作為研究對象，因為在金融產業裡消費金融是一項需要依賴顧客關係管理，才能維繫顧客忠誠度與獲得更多的顧客。 本研究透過文獻蒐集找出可能影響顧客關係管理的關鍵因素，建立研究架構。並透過兩階段驗證與及擴充研究架構。第一階段，我們先定義出與顧客關係管理相關的信用卡指標，然後蒐集台灣過去八年有從事合併活動的銀行在信用卡業務上的資料，並透過指標分析以了解銀行在合併前至合併後的顧客關係管理成效，目的是希望了解企業在併購後顧客關係管理的維繫。第二階段，我們針對所選的個案去做深度的跨個案研究，目的是希望了解企業可以維持顧客關係的重要成功因素。 本研究結果透過跨個案分析驗證我們在文獻中發現的關鍵因素，並說明這些因素如何影響顧客關係。此外還發現可能會影響管理顧客關係的其他影響因素。本研究發現關鍵因素分別為1.顧客重整與服務調整2.服務文化調整3.流程整合4.資訊整合5.溝通6.組織慣性改變7.企業轉換時標準程序的建立8.合併後的顧客關懷。而影響併購後顧客關係管理的因素分別為1.策略目的2.客群的規模3.品牌效益4.組織心態。透過本研究可了解併購後維繫顧客關係的重要性，並提供影響顧客關係管理的成功因素，以幫助企業維繫顧客忠誠度與獲得更多的顧客。 / Mergers and acquisitions (M&A) represent a strategic approach for businesses to acquire resources and build competitive advantages. Many studies have investigated the process and results of the resource integration between two firms. Some cases have revealed satisfactory results in building asset portfolios and some cases uncovered a downside to merger due to conflicts in cultural and system integration. One of the key objectives of business acquisition is to expand business operations in providing customers with superior products and services. However, there is limited understanding about how customers react to the post-merger services. In theory, the merged enterprise should be able to leverage the assets and knowledge in growing and retaining customers, but in reality the customer relationships may not be well managed because of a lack of synergy between the merged organizations. The objective of this study is to examine the effect of mergers and acquisitions on customer relationship management (CRM), and we select the credit card business in the banking industry as our focus of study. Finance industries, especially consumer banks, rely heavily on CRM for targeting customers, promoting services, building deep knowledge, and generating revenue. M&A is the most applied approach in increasing business scope and enhancing services for engaging more customers. Based on the literature about M&A and CRM, this study builds a framework for data collection, and the study is conducted in two stages. First, we collect data on CRM performance of credit card business in banks in Taiwan that have experienced M&A in the past eight years, and we compare CRM performance before and after mergers. Second, we do in-depth case study on selected cases regarding possible causes for CRM success in post-merger. The research results not only verified and enhanced the list of critical factors for CRM success but also discovered influential factors that can affect the effectiveness of CRM after merger. The critical factors are: strategy for rebuilding customer base and service portfolio, service culture, process integration, technology integration, communication and organizational inertia, standard of procedures of the business transition and customer care after the merger. The additional influential factors are: strategic purpose, customer base, brand effect, and organizational mindsets. It is hoped that we can learn from these cases about managing customer relationships after a merger and help companies develop effective plans for building synergy in CRM after M&A.

第一章：緒論 本章敘述研究動機、研究目的、研究方法、研究範圍及研究限制。 第二章：簽帳卡制度的演變與發展 本章對於早期信用卡制度至現今簽帳卡制度的演變情形，作歷史性的探討，以了解發 展趨勢。 第三章：簽帳卡業務之成本與效益分析 本章分析經營簽帳卡業務所投入的成本，及其產出的效益，並求得利潤，以與銀行資 金成本兩相比較，進而評估簽帳卡業務之績效。 第四章：簽帳卡業務成本效益分析之基本決策模型 本章試行建立簽帳卡業務成本效益分析之模型，確定模型之攸關變數，進行邏輯運作 程序，作成最後決策。 第五章：我國現行聯合簽帳卡業務 我國預定於本（七十三）年五月廿日開辦合簽帳卡業務，本章將對該制度之業務體系 及作業方式加以探討。 第六章：結論與建議 本章就前述各章所作之研究，提出綜合性說明，並試擬若干建議，以供我國實施聯合 簽帳卡業務之參考。

過去有關服務品質的研究大都以服務的特性(如可靠度、反應力等等..)做為服務品質的構面去探討每一構面對整體服務品質的影響，本研究則以服務的種類做為服務品質的構面去探討不同服務的服務品質對整體服務品質的影響。 根據Grönroos (1990) 對服務所做的分類，本研究將服務分成核心服務、輔助服務以及支援性服務，探討這三種服務對整體服務品質的影響力。 此外，在Zeithaml & Bitner (1996) 所提出的「顧客知覺品質與顧客滿意度關係圖」中認為滿意度直接受到知覺服務品質、知覺產品品質、知覺價格的影響，本研究便據此去探討整體服務品質對顧客滿意度的影響。此外，更進一步去探討顧客滿意度與顧客忠誠度之間的關係。 由於本研究主要著重在服務品質的探討，因此選定幾無實體商品的信用卡產業做為研究客體，探討知覺服務品質及知覺價格對滿意度的影響，而不探討知覺產品品質的影響。 根據Grönroos對核心服務、輔助服務以及支援性服務所下的定義，核心服務指的是企業在市場上生存的理由，應用在信用卡產業即為信用卡所提供「延遲付款」的利益以及旅遊保險、道路救援等等服務；輔助服務是企業為了讓顧客能使用核心服務所提供的服務，企業以此做為競爭的手段，增加差異化的程度，應用在信用卡產業即為客服中心所提供的服務；支援性服務是企業為了增加整體服務吸引力所提供的服務，應用在信用卡產業即為發卡銀行的企業形象及所參與的公益活動等等。 本研究共回收382份有效問卷，以247份進行LISREL分析，得到以下的結果。 在服務種類和整體服務品質的關係上，核心服務和支援性服務對整體服務品質並無顯著影響。唯有輔助服務(客服中心)對整體服務品質有顯著影響。顯示在核心服務與支援性服務易於模仿而日益趨同的情況下，輔助服務(客服中心)對消費者在評估整體服務品質時所具有的重要性已超越其他種類的服務。 在影響滿意度的因素上，研究結果顯示，整體服務品質與價格皆會影響顧客滿意度，且服務品質的影響力大於價格的影響力。此外，在滿意度和忠誠度的關係上，結果顯示，兩者之間呈正相關。 本研究以服務的分類去探討不同種類服務對整體服務品質的影響，並與Zeithaml & Bitner所提出的架構做一連結，提供未來學術研究在探討影響服務品質的構面時一個新的方向。 / In the past, in the literature research on service quality, the characteristics of service such as reliability, responsiveness, and etc. were regarding as the dimensions of service quality to study the influence of each dimension on whole service quality. This research is taking the category of service quality as the dimensions of service quality to study the influence of different kinds of service on whole service quality. According to Grönroos’s study on the category of service in 1990, this study is divided service into core service, facilitating services and supporting services to realize the influence of these three kinds of service on whole service quality. Furthermore, in the framework “Customer perception of quality and customer satisfaction” proposed by Zeithmal and Bitner’s, satisfaction is directly influenced by perceived service quality, perceived product quality, and perceived price. According to this reference, this study is to discuss the influence of whole service quality on satisfaction. In addition, this study would Because this study emphasizes on the study of service quality, the main focus in on credit card to investigate the influence of perceived service quality and perceived price on satisfaction, rather than the influence of perceived product. According to the definition of core service, facilitating services and supporting services proposed by Grönroos, core services are the reasons for being on the market. Applied to credit card, the core services are the benefit of deferred payment, travel insurance, road rescue, and etc. Besides, facilitating services are the services that facilitate the use of the core services. Applied to credit card, the facilitating services are the services call centers could supply. In addition, supporting services are used to increase the value and/or to differentiate the service from the services of competitors. Applied to credit card, supporting services are the image of the company and the activities for public warfare or charity the company holds or joins. This study collects 382 copies of valid questionnaires and later LISREL analysis is carried out with 247 copies. The results are as follows. With the relationship between service category and whole service quality, core service and supporting services has no significant influence on whole service quality. Only facilitating services—the services call center supplies—have significant influence on whole service quality. It shows that under the situation that the core services and supporting services are imitated easily and equaled gradually, the importance of facilitating services is beyond any other kinds of services when consumers evaluating the whole service quality. As to the factors that influence satisfaction, whole service quality and perceived price both have significant influence of satisfaction, and whole service quality has more influence than price. In addition, with the relationship between satisfaction and loyalty, the two variables are positively related. This study is to discuss the influence of different kinds of services on whole service quality and create a linkage between services category and the framework proposed by Zeithaml and Bitner. Also, the study wishes to provide a new direction for future literature research regarding the dimensions that would influence the service quality.

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