The purpose of Oregon's Nearshore Research Inventory (NRI) project was to inventory and map the current and future use of Oregon's nearshore environment by the scientific research community for use in Oregon's marine spatial planning process. Spatial and qualitative data on the use of Oregon's ocean and coast by the scientific research community was collected using ethnographic research methods, including the geographic distribution of research, the people who are conducting scientific research, timeline for scientific research, and more. Through the NRI project, Oregon's Territorial Sea amendment process became the first marine spatial planning process in the world, other than through ocean zoning (e.g. Australia's Great Barrier Reef and China), to comprehensively recognize the scientific community as a stakeholder. This thesis contains the methods used to create the NRI database, interview the scientific community, and includes future recommendations for managers and the scientific community based on the results of the NRI. As new uses, such as wave energy extraction, get proposed along coastlines and in the ocean, marine spatial planning (MSP) can be a tool to reduce conflict and find compatible uses of ocean and coastal space. Sound science needs to be used to understand social, ecological, and economic components to ocean and coastal resources and make tradeoff decisions about ocean and coastal space use in the MSP process. The results of the NRI project demonstrate the need to recognize that the scientific research community as a stakeholder in the MSP process. Their use of ocean and coastal space helps provide the sound scientific information that is needed to make ecosystem-based management decisions. Interruptions in long-term scientific research and monitoring could limit the availability of scientific information for use in future management decisions. There are also other values to comprehensively inventorying use of the ocean and coast by the scientific community. Spatial data about where people conduct scientific research provides information for potential collaboration amongst the scientific community and between scientists and non-scientists. It also identifies data gaps, which can then be filled to help have a more comprehensive understanding of ocean and coastal issues. The NRI can act as a template for other states to include the scientific community as a stakeholder in a MSP process, and as a template for a regional inventory of scientific research which can be useful for ecosystem based approaches to management. Overall, there should be value placed on sound scientific information for management decisions and the scientific community as a stakeholder in the marine spatial planning process, as demonstrated through the NRI. / Graduation date: 2013

I ”Översiktsplan Älvkarleby Kommun 2009” framgår att kommunen vill utveckla de demokratiska formerna och underlätta för medborgarnas politiska delaktighet. Tidigare forskning har visat att behovet av medborgardeltagande ökar i den offentliga planeringen och att planerare kan dra flera fördelar av medborgardeltagande i planprocesser. Ett sätt att öka medborgardeltagandet är att integrera digital 3D-visualisering i planprocessen, ett verktyg som Älvkarleby kommun inte använder i framtagandet av dagens detaljplaner.   Syftet med denna studie är att undersöka den digitala 3D-visualiseringens framtid i en liten svensk kommun. Studien kommer att identifiera inställningen till digital 3D-visualisering hos politiker, planerare och medborgare. Slutligen ska studien också undersöka hur mindre kommuner kan använda digital 3D-visualisering i framtida planarbete för att öka det befintliga medborgardeltagandet. Målet med denna studie är att påvisa för Älvkarleby, och andra kommuner där digital 3D-visualisering inte används, hur de med enkla medel och kostnadseffektivt kan använda 3D-visualisering i framtida planprocesser.   För att identifiera synen på digital 3D-visualisering hos ett urval av kommunala tjänstemän och politiker har det genomförts semistrukturerade intervjuer. För att kvantitativt undersöka medborgarnas syn har digitala enkäter skickats ut via det sociala nätverket Facebook. Under studien har det genomförts åtta intervjuer och 99 enkäter har besvarats.   Politiker, planerare och medborgare inom kommunen är överens om att 3D-visualiseringen kan bidra till att effektivisera och förbättra planprocessen för detaljplaner. Studien har också resulterat i identifiering av de hinder som kan uppstå inom planprocesser med digital 3D-visualisering.   Digital 3D-visualisering som en del i planprocessen för detaljplaner kan medföra att medborgardeltagandet i Älvkarleby kommun ökar. Detta eftersom intresset för det kommunala planarbetet och viljan att bidra hos medborgare kan påverkas positivt av digital 3D-visualisering i planprocessen. Utöver medborgardeltagandet kan också digital 3D-visualisering förenkla arbetsgången hos såväl kommunala tjänstemän som politiker.       Nyckelord: Digital 3D-visualisering, Planprocess, Detaljplan, Älvkarleby kommun, Medborgardeltagande. / In “Översiktsplan Älvkarleby Kommun 2009” is it clear that the municipality of Älvkarleby want to develop the democratic forms and facilitate citizens’ political participation. Earlier research shows that the need for citizen participation increases in public planning and believe that planners can draw multiple benefits of citizen participation in planning processes. One way to increase citizen participation is the integration of digital 3D visualization in the planning process, a tool that the municipality of Älvkarleby not using for local plans today. The purpose of this study is to examine the future of digital 3D visualization in small Swedish municipality. The study will identify attitudes to digital 3D visualization of politicians, planners and citizens. Finally, the study will also examine how small municipalities can use digital 3D visualization in the future planning to enhance the existing civic participation. The goal of this study is to demonstrate to Älvkarleby, and other municipalities where the digital 3D visualization is not used, how to by simple means and cost-effective use digital 3D visualization in future planning processes. To identify the perception of 3D digital visualization, a selection of municipal officials and politicians, semi-structural interviews have been carried out. To quantitatively examine the citizens' attitudes, digital questionnaires have been sent out via the social network Facebook. During the study eight interviews and 99 surveys have been answered. Politicians, planners and citizens in the municipality agree that digital 3D visualization can help to streamline and improve the planning processes for local plans. The study has also resulted in identifying the obstacles that digital 3D visualization may lead to in the planning process. Digital 3D visualization as a part of the planning process for the local planning could lead to increased citizen participation in the municipality of Älvkarleby, as the interest in the planning process increases and the desire to participate are positively affected by digital 3D visualization. In addition to civic participation, the digital 3D visualization can also be used to simplify the workflows for both municipal officials and politicians.         Keywords: Digital 3D Visualization, Planning Process, Zoning Plan, Älvkarleby kommun, Public Participation.

Die vorliegende Dissertationsschrift beschäftigt sich mit dem räumlichen Einkaufsverhalten im Einzelhandel im Zusammenhang mit Einzelhandelsagglomerationen; genauer gesagt werden nachfrageseitige positive Agglomerationseffekte im Einzelhandel untersucht, d.h. Urbanisierungs- und Lokalisierungsvorteile, die auf dem Kundenverhalten basieren. Ausgehend von sehr heterogenen theoretischen Arbeiten v.a. aus dem Bereich der Raumwirtschaftstheorien, der Mikroökonomie und der verhaltenswissenschaftlichen Marketing-Forschung werden die verschiedenen Einkaufsstrategien abgeleitet, die in einer kundenseitigen Bevorzugung von agglomerierten Angebotsstandorten resultieren. Neben den bereits in älteren Raumwirtschaftstheorien behandelten Kopplungskäufen sind dies vor allem verschiedene Typen von Vergleichskäufen, die sich auf (mitunter strategische) Agglomerationen eigentlich konkurrierender Einzelhandelsanbieter beziehen. Die gebildeten Hypothesen zur (positiven) Wirkung von Einzelhandelsagglomerationen bzw. der räumlichen Konzentration mit andersartigen bzw. eigentlich konkurrierenden Anbietern werden anhand des ökonometrischen MCI-Modells (Multiplicative Competitive Interaction Model) überprüft. Auf diesem Wege wird zugleich ein Marktgebietsmodell auf der Basis des häufig angewendeten Huff-Modells formuliert, mit dem es möglich ist, Kundenströme unter Berücksichtigung von Agglomerationseffekten zu schätzen. Die Modellparametrisierung erfolgt anhand der realen Marktgebiete von Lebensmittelmärkten sowie Elektronik- und Baumärkten, die anhand einer Haushaltsbefragung ermittelt wurden. Insgesamt zeigen die Analyseergebnisse in den meisten Fällen, dass die Einkaufsstättenwahl bzw. der lokale Marktanteil einzelner Anbieter positiv vom vorhandenen Potenzial für Kopplungs- und Vergleichskäufe beeinflusst wird. Die Untersuchung zeigt die Relevanz von Agglomerationseffekten im Einzelhandel auf, wobei ein Modell formuliert wird, mit dem es möglich ist, diese Effekte zu analysieren. Konkrete Anwendungen hierfür finden sich in der betrieblichen Standortanalyse und insbesondere in der raumordnerischen und städtebaulichen Verträglichkeitsbeurteilung von Einzelhandelsansiedlungen.

Die Dissertation untersucht auf der Basis der Inhaltsanalyse von 429 deutschsprachigen Konzepten der Raumplanung sowie mit Hilfe von 17 ExpertInneninterviews verschiedene Problemzustände der Planung und Umsetzung räumlicher Entwicklungsmaßnahmen sowie den Umgang mit diesen Problemzuständen seitens der raumplanerischen Praxis und der Raumpolitik in Deutschland, Österreich und der Schweiz. Dabei wurde – neben allgemeinen Informationen über inhaltliche Schwerpunkte und Ausrichtungen der untersuchten Konzepte, ihre Planungszeiträume und Autoren sowie Entscheidungsverfahren und -methoden – ein differenzierter Katalog unterschiedlicher Problemzustände und kritischer Faktoren erstellt, welcher bei der konzeptionellen Ausrichtung zukünftiger Konzepte als Orientierungshilfe dienen kann. Der Autor diskutiert die heutige Rolle räumlicher Handlungskonzepte und weist eindringlich auf die Problematik der Verdrängung kritischer Zustände im Zusammenhang der Erarbeitung und Umsetzung räumlicher Handlungskonzepte hin.

「人」與其社會組織在地理空間中運作，相對地，空間的結構將反過來影響人的活動；另一方面，傳統的空間研究卻常為描述空間而研究空間，而忽略了空間背後所隱含之社會意涵。這實甚相近的二個主題，在學術研究的累積上卻尚存有一段極大的落差。本研究從這段落差中去尋求一個連結「人與空間」關係的一個有趣旨題，即是「族群因素與地域空間發展之關係的研究」。研究的主要目的在於：由空間結構和社會觀點出發，去探討「族群分布、族群關係」與「地域空間發展」間的關連性，並推演「族群因素與地域空間發展」之間互動關係的一般性法則和模式理念。 理論上，從環境決定論者的觀點，人的行為模式乃是受實質環境(空間)所主導；但反對者則認為人的政經活動與行為組織才是主導空間形成的原因…為匯整這種差異，本文首先回顧了一些較重要學派的空間結構理論，以及一些基本的社會文化理論，以了解各理論對空間結構的解析方式和對族群因素的論述觀點，據此歸結出一些「族群因素」在空間結構發展上的意涵，作為初步的推論以及後面實例分析的重點啟示。 本研究認為「環境(空間)」與「人」二者之間會因社會時代背景與人之關係的差異而有不同的互動情形與循環影響。是以在實例分析上，以台灣的聚落發展史為軸心，將各個不同時期(包括了原鄉地域之爭的清代移民時期、殖民空間改造的日據時期、具省籍隔離情結的國民政府遷台時期，以及開始產生本土化族群融合的現代化時期)之族群分布、族群關係情況與同時期的台灣地域空間結構發展作一對照分析，以解讀二者之間的關連性與互動情況。 經由結合初步的推論與實例分析所得到的發現，推導出族群因素與地域空問發展之關係的最後結論，包括如不同社會發展時期的族群關係具有差異性；影響族群空間分布與關係的主要因素有四者；不同的族群分布產生對地域空間發展的不同影響，也形塑出不同的空間結構特質；族群因素與地域空間的發展關係具有一種對等循環的特性…。然後回頭去對以往之空間結構理論，在本研究主題結論上作一番辯證，以解讀各不同論點的理論觀點在族群因素與空間發展關係上的解釋性和缺漏所在。最後，除了扼要歸結本研究的結論外，且簡單地引申研究發現在空間規劃上之意涵的啟示，並提出一些研究中所受的限制與可作為後續研究的課題以供參考。 / The study attempes to discern social implications of spatial structure．It is precisely for this reason that the primary purpose of the study is to discuss interactive relations between the"ethnic group"and"spatial development",and to infer its evolution law. The environmenal determinism afgues that the human activities are contingent uponthe environment However, opponents contest that political,economic and behavior organizations are the determinant factors of spatial form．Theories of spatial Structureand social culture, and Taiwan's history of social spatial development divided into four different periods are examined. It is argued that the relation between"environment (space)"and"human(ethnic group)"evoluts according to the difference of social back ground and time presenting a changing cycle. Rooted in a case study and rigour theorical discussions,the conclusion reachs that,for example,(l)different relationships of period of ethnic groups present different period Of social development;(2)the influencial causes of the relationships and distribution of ethnic groups are four;(3)different distribution of ethnic groups imposes different impacts upon spatial developmentk,and forms different characteristics of spatial struCture;(4)the relative development of ethnic groups and spatial structure manifestscyclical characteristics．in the final part of this thesis, the implications for the spatial planning and further studies are examined.

Le recours croissant à des anticipations stratégiques territorialisées, participatives et mobilisatrices comme étapes du processus d’élaboration des politiques publiques territoriales, par le Conseil régional de Bretagne, le Gouvernement du Pays-de-Galles et le Gouvernement du Québec, peut être analysé comme un investissement, par ces pouvoirs territoriaux « intermédiaires », d'un champ jusqu'alors réservé à l’État central et aux élus nationaux : la promesse du futur. Dans un contexte de remise en question du modèle de l’État-Providence centralisé, accentué par la crise économique et la crise de la dette de la fin des années 2000, la capacité et la légitimité politique des États centraux à garantir la prospérité territoriale et l'espoir d'un futur meilleur se sont étiolées. Les administrations régionales – au sens large – investissent donc cet espace désormais disponible pour mettre en avant une vision infranationale du futur et du territoire, tant auprès de la population que des partenaires de l'action publique. Les démarches d’anticipation stratégique étudiées produisent et reproduisent des discours sur la vision du futur et du territoire, sur le sens de l’action publique et des institutions régionales. Ces registres participent tous d’un investissement de l’avenir par le pouvoir politique, c’est-à-dire d’une économie politique du temps. L’approche par l’investissement politique du futur permet donc d’étudier la fabrique et le gouvernement d’un territoire politique. Les récits projectifs territorialisés que nous avons pu étudier articulent en effet plusieurs dimensions de la légitimation d’un espace politique : un processus de circonscription du territoire (territory making process), un processus de mobilisation d’une communauté territoriale (community making process), et un processus de redéfinition de la dynamique et de l’espace de la légitimité (polity defining process). Cette perspective de recherche permet d’étudier plusieurs dimensions du changement : la transformation interne des espaces politiques nationaux, la convergence internationale de l’action publique infranationale, et enfin la redistribution de l’autorité politique dans des États Nations en recomposition. / The increasing use of spatialized, collaborative and mobilizing strategic anticipations as steps of the public policy process by the Regional Council of Brittany, the Welsh Government and the Government of Quebec can be seen as an investment, by these "intermediate" territorial powers, of a field hitherto monopolized by central States and national representatives: the promise of the future. In a context of reconfiguration of centralized Welfare State’s model, accentuated by the economic crisis and the debt crisis of the late 2000s, the central states' capacity and political legitimacy to guarantee territorial prosperity and the hope for a better future has subsided. Regional administrations - in a broad sense - are therefore investing this space now available to put forward a sub-national vision of the future and of the territory, both among the population and the partners of the public action. The strategic anticipation processes studied produce and reproduce discourses on the vision of the future and territory, on the meaning of public action and regional institutions. These narratives are all caracterized by a political investment of the future, that is to say, a political economy of time. The approach by the notion of political investment of the future therefore helps to achieve a better understanding of the making-process and governing-process of a political space. Spatialized projective narratives that we have been able to study articulate several dimensions of the legitimization process: a territory-making process, a community-making process, and a polity defining process. This research perspective helps to study several dimensions of change: the internal transformation of national political spaces, the international convergence of subnational public action, and finally the redistribution of political authority in changing Nation-States.

South African law treats planning and the environment separately, causing considerable problems when developing land. Concerns in this regard are worldwide and various approaches have been adopted to solve them. This research seeks to explore what legal solutions can be provided using some international examples, fitting them within the unique governance, historical and legal context of South Africa. / Jurisprudence / LLM

In Sweden according to the planning and building Act municipalities have planning monopoly. The question about shopping centres in the outskirts of cities is a regional issue, because they attract customers from a large area. Municipalities often find it hard to assert themselves against large commercial companies when it comes to their establishing new retail outlets on the outskirts of cities. Without a regional co-operation there is a risk that municipalities can be played up against one another, so that more and more companies are given permits without the municipalities having taken the strategic consideration necessary for a long term sustainable development. The focus in this work is on four municipalities in the Södertörn region (Södertälje, Botkyrka, Huddinge and Nynäshamn). Today there are some out-of-town retail outlets in the first three municipalities. The main aim of this thesis is to explain why there is no co-operation between municipalities in Södertörn concerning out-of-town retailing. The aim is also to connect sustainable city development with the problems of out-of-town retails as well as the municipalities commercial policy. The study uses a hermeneutic approach and a qualitative method with one case-study. The interviews are partly based on standard procedures. Out-of-town retail outlets entail private car use and this is a problem from a city development perspective. To reach a sustainable city development it is important to expand transport options such as walking, biking and public transport. The project Sustainable Travel (Hållbart resande) at Södertörn supports this development. Some of the municipalities in Södertörn are trying to revitalise their local centres and this is positive from a social and ecological perspective. The four municipalities however do not co-operate concerning out-of-town retailing, and this reverts the issue back to a lack of regional planning, and their competing for purchasing power.

CoordenaÃÃo de AperfeÃoamento de Pessoal de NÃvel Superior / Dunas costeiras exercem um importante papel na manutenÃÃo do fluxo de sedimentos da zona costeira. O Parque Nacional de Jericoacoara, localizado no estado do CearÃ, regiÃo Nordeste do Brasil, possui uma morfologia pouco frequente, trata-se de um promontÃrio associado com um campo de dunas mÃveis denominadas barcanas, dunas individuais, de grande porte com formato de ferraduras que se deslocam em direÃÃo L â O. Elas realizam o by-pass, o transporte de sedimentos, essencial para a manutenÃÃo da linha de costa. Neste trabalho, foi priorizada a definiÃÃo da evoluÃÃo morfodinÃmica de dunas mÃveis isoladas (dunas Papai Noel, PÃr-do-Sol e Arraia), tendo como referencial teÃrico a anÃlise das paisagens e como procdimento tÃcnico principal a anÃlise espaÃo-temporal do recobrimento de imagens multitemporais dos satÃlites Landsat e Quickbird entre os anos de 1973 a 2014. AtravÃs da comparaÃÃo da distribuiÃÃo espaÃo temporal das morfologias dunares, nesse perÃodo de 41 anos, evidenciaram-se mudanÃas significativas na Ãrea, perÃmetro e deslocamento das dunas. Foi possÃvel constatar a aÃÃo dos fluxos de matÃria e energia vinculados com migraÃÃo continuada direcionada para a faixa de praia (setor de bypassing de sedimentos). A dinÃmica de migraÃÃo das dunas, quando analisadas apÃs as imagens de 2000, evidenciou possibilidades de alteraÃÃes dos aspectos morfolÃgicos influenciados pelo incremento do fluxo turÃstico, quando instituÃdo o PARNA de Jericoacoara. As mudanÃas foram mais significativas, sobretudo, entre os anos de 2001 a 2005, o que pode estar relacionado a uma maior intervenÃÃo humana (fluxo de turistas). A utilizaÃÃo das tÃcnicas de geoprocessamento para o mapeamento da evoluÃÃo morfodinÃmica do campo de dunas do Parque Nacional de Jericoacoara constituiu- se uma ferramenta essencial para a produÃÃo de informaÃÃes que certamente subsidiarÃo a continuidade do planejamento ambiental da referida, que se constitui como uma Unidade de ConservaÃÃo de ProteÃÃo Integral. / Coastal dunes play an important role in the sediment flow of the coastal zone. The unique morphology of the Jericoacoara National Park in the northeastern Brazilian state of Cearà consists of a promontory covered by a mobile dune field consisting of large, horseshoe-shaped dunes known locally as barcanas that migrate from east to west. These dunes are responsible for the by-pass, the transport of sediments essential for the maintenance of the coastline. The present study focused on the morphodynamic evolution of these isolated mobile dunes through the recovery of multitemporal Landsat and Quickbird satellite images from the years between 1975 and 2014. The comparison of the spatio-temporal distribution of the morphology of these dunes over this 41-year period revealed significant shifts in their area, perimeter, and movement. It was possible to confirm that the flow of material and energy were linked to a process of continuous migration in the direction of the beach (sediment bypassing sector). The dynamics of the dune migration in the years following 2000, when the national park was established, indicate possible impacts of the increase in tourism within the area on the morphology of the dunes. The changes were most significant between 2001 and 2005, possibly reflecting a greater influx of tourists and thus more intense anthropogenic impacts. The different geoprocessing techniques applied to the mapping of the morphodynamic evolution of the dune field of the Jericoacoara National Park proved to be an essential tool for the production of information that will guarantee the long-term environmental planning of this integral conservation unit.

This study aims to analyze geoenvironmental risks and their relation to spatial planning in Garanhuns - PE. The area in question has gone through intrinsic changes over the decades in its socio-spatial and environmental dynamics, emphasized by the national policy of coffee eradication in areas considered as low productivity, introduced by the then Instituto Brasileiro de Café (IBC) [Brazilian Coffee Institute] in 1965. Disruption of the field production model from agricultural to animal husbandry, immediately unleashed two phenomena on two fronts. In the field, it stimulated removal of the remaining vegetation cover to maximize pastures, therefore the implanted model was focused on animal husbandry (dairy / extensive), which also caused displacement of population groups to urban areas, since the farmer's own labor was replaced by the cowherd. In the urban area and its surroundings a sharp increase in population occurred, with emphasis on the peri-urban boundaries mostly situated on the slopes of the valleys, which have a high topographic amplitude and natural susceptibility to mass movements. The triad, spatial planning, fleeting disruption of the economical model and accelerated maximization of the urban perimeter, configured an unbalanced geoenvironmental scenario, endangering the population, especially the people who settled on the slopes and valley bottoms. To subsidize the analysis, interpretation and preparation of cartographic products relevant to the topic, this research besides conducting a survey of the state of the art of the aforementioned problems, was subsidized by geotechnologies from remote sensing and geographic information systems (GIS), using a diversified base of geospatial data. Aware that the geostatistical procedures are of paramount importance to interpolation of the information in a database (DB), kriging was chosen to be used due to its possibilistic characteristics, in other words, the maximum and minimum values added in the database are extrapolated, operationalizing the procedure of estimating possible future and past realities, and of reconstitution of current scenarios. / El presiente estudio tiene como objetivo analizar los riesgos geo-ambientales y sus relaciones con la planificación del uso del suelo en Garanhuns - PE. El área en cuestión, con el transcurso de las décadas, ha experimentado cambios intrínsecos en su dinámica socio-espaciales y ambientales, tiene como el divisor de las aguas la política nacional de erradicación del café en zonas consideradas de baja productividad, implementado por el entonces Instituto Brasileño del Café (IBC) en 1965. La ruptura del modelo de producción del campo agrícola para ganadero, partió dos fenómenos de inmediato y en dos frentes. En el campo, que estimula la eliminación de la cubierta vegetal restante para maximizar los pastos, entonces el modelo implantado era ganaderísta (lácteos/extensa), lo que también causó el desplazamiento de grupos de población en las zonas urbanas, ya que el trabajo del agricultor fue sustituido por vaquero. En la poligonal urbana y sus cercania ocurrirse un abrupto crecimiento de la población, con énfasis en lo limites de la periferia urbana en su mayoría situados en las laderas de los valles, los cuales tienen un amplitude topográfico alto y la susceptibilidad natural de los movimientos de masas. La tríade de planificación espacial, la quiebra del modelo económico y acelerado maximizar el perímetro urbano, creó un escenario geoambiental desequilibrado, que pone en peligro a la población, especialmente las personas que se sientan en las cuestas y fondos de los valles. Para apoyar el análisis, interpretación y elaboración de productos cartográficos relacionados con el tema, esta investigación, además de la realización de un levantamiento sobre el estado de la arte para problemas anteriores, fue apoyada por geotecnologias de información de detección geográficas (SIG), utilizando una diversificada base de datos geoespaciales. Consciente de que los procedimientos geoestadísticas son muy importantes para la interpolación de las informaciones en una base de datos (BD), se decidió utilizar el krigagem debido a sus características possibilísticas, es decir, los valores máximo y mínimo añadido en lo BD se extrapolan, puesta en práctica del procedimiento de estimación del posible futuro y pretérito de los escenarios actuales de la reconstitución. / O presente trabalho tem como objetivo analisar os riscos geoambientais e suas relações com o ordenamento territorial em Garanhuns - PE. A área em questão, com o transcorrer das décadas, passou por intrínsecas transformações na sua dinâmica socioespacial e ambiental, tendo como divisor de águas a política nacional de erradicação do café em áreas consideradas com baixa produtividade, implantada pelo então Instituto Brasileiro do Café (IBC) em 1965. A ruptura do modelo de produção do campo de agrícola para pecuarista, desencadeou dois fenômenos de imediato e em duas frentes. No campo, estimulou a remoção das coberturas vegetais remanescentes para maximização dos pastos, logo o modelo implantado foi pecuarista (leiteiro/extensivo), o que também causou deslocamento de contingentes populacionais para zona urbana, já que a mão de obra do agricultor foi substituída pela do vaqueiro. Na poligonal urbana e suas adjacências ocorreu um incremento populacional abrupto, com ênfase para os limites periurbanos em sua maioria situados nas encostas dos vales, os quais apresentam uma elevada amplitude topográfica e uma suscetibilidade natural a movimentos de massas. A tríade ordenamento territorial, fugaz ruptura do modelo econômico e acelerada maximização do perímetro urbano, configurou um cenário geoambiental desequilibrado, o qual coloca em risco a população, principalmente os habitantes que estão assentados nas encostas e fundos de vales. Para subsidiar a análise, interpretação e confecção dos produtos cartográficos pertinentes à temática, a presente pesquisa além de realizar um levantamento do estado da arte para problemática supracitada, foi subsidiada pelas geotecnologias do sensoriamento remoto e sistemas de informações geográficas (SIGs), usando uma diversificada base de dados geoespaciais. Ciente de que os procedimentos geoestatísticos são de suma importância para a interpolação das informações em um banco de dados (BD), optou-se por utilizar a krigagem devido suas características possibilísticas, ou seja, os valores máximos e mínimos adicionados no BD são extrapolados, operacionalizando o procedimento de estimativa de possíveis realidades futuras e pretéritas, e de reconstituição de cenários atuais.