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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
21

Approche intégrée d’aide à la décision basée sur la propagation de l’imperfection de l’information – application à l’efficacité des mesures de protection torrentielle / Imperfect information propagation-based integrated decision-aiding approach applied to assess torrential protective systems’ effectiveness

Carladous, Simon 05 April 2017 (has links)
Depuis le 19ème siècle, de nombreux dispositifs de protection ont été implantés en montagne pour réduire le risque torrentiel. L'évaluation multi-échelle de leur efficacité est nécessaire pour comparer et choisir les stratégies de maintenance et de gestion de l’occupation des sols. Le chapitre I met en évidence les ambiguïtés du concept d’efficacité évalué selon plusieurs critères dans un contexte d’information imparfaite, issue de sources multiples, inégalement fiables. Pour aider l’évaluation multidimensionnelle, le problème de décision est décomposé en plusieurs sous-problèmes formulés, modélisés, traités puis intégrés. L’état de l’art du chapitre II permet de retenir les méthodes de la sûreté de fonctionnement (SdF) et d'aide à la décision (AD) basées sur le Raisonnement Évidentiel, associant les ensembles flous, les possibilités, les fonctions de croyance et la fusion d’information pour traiter chaque problème. Le chapitre III explicite le concept d'efficacité puis propose une adaptation des méthodes de la SdF à la formulation multi-échelle des problèmes. Le chapitre IV adapte les méthodes d'AD basées sur le Raisonnement Évidentiel, les améliore pour mieux représenter la connaissance disponible et évaluer la qualité d’une décision, et les associe. Le chapitre V propose une méthodologie séquentielle qui intègre ces méthodes pour évaluer les mesures de protection, de l’échelle de l’ouvrage à celle du bassin d’enjeux. Enfin, le chapitre VI discute les résultats, identifie les apports respectifs de l'intégration et des nouvelles méthodes, puis décrit les perspectives de déploiement opérationnel de la méthodologie développée. / Many torrential protective check dams have been built in French mountainous areas since the 19th century. They aim to reduce risk in torrential watersheds. Analysis of their effectiveness is needed to assess residual risk and to choose the best maintenance strategy in a context of reduced budgets. Chapter I introduces main issues due both to definition of effectiveness concept and also the several criteria and system scales that have to be assessed. Moreover, required expertise is based on imperfect information, provided by several sources with different reliability levels. To help such decisions, this thesis proposes to break down general assessment into several smaller decision-making problems. In chapter II, dependability analysis tools and Evidential Reasoning based-decision-aiding methods (ER-DAMs), using fuzzy sets and possibility theories, are chosen to help individual decisions. Chapters III to V then introduce new developments. Effectiveness concept is first defined. A multi-scale dependability analysis helps to describe each decision-making problem. ER-DAMs are then adapted to help effectiveness assessment at each system’s scale. Technical improvements are provided to these methods for a better knowledge representation and final decision. Improved methods are then associated. Finally, individual problems and associated methods are integrated in a generic methodology to help torrential protective measures’ effectiveness assessment at watershed scale. The last chapter VI focuses on discussion of integrative aspects and of ER-DAMs’ specific developments. It gives some elements to improve methods but also to help operational implementation of the generic methodology.
22

Méthodologie d’aide à la décision pour l’élaboration et la sélection de la stratégie contractuelle des projets pétroliers complexes. / Decision aiding methodology for developing the Contractual Strategy of complex oil and gas development projects

Mammeri, Massinissa 28 November 2017 (has links)
Un projet de développement d’une nouvelle installation pétrolière est lancé lorsque des études d’exploration et d’appréciation estiment que l’exploitation du gisement d’hydrocarbures découvert sera suffisamment rentable. La taille des projets rencontrés en industrie pétrolière impose de les découper en plusieurs périmètres. Chaque périmètre est attribué à un contracteur avec un type de contrat particulier, formant ainsi la stratégie contractuelle du projet. Durant le processus de sélection de la stratégie contractuelle, les entreprises pétrolières font face à trois difficultés récurrentes : 1) l’identification et la génération d’un nombre raisonnable et pertinent d’alternatives ; 2) l’évaluation des alternatives réalisables, qui dépendent de critères d’échelles et de natures différentes ; et enfin, 3) le besoin de justifier la solution proposée. La problématique de recherche est donc de concevoir une méthodologie d’aide à l’élaboration et la sélection de la stratégie contractuelle des projets de développement. Elle devra être la plus adaptée non seulement en termes de performances coûts, délais, mais devra également tenir compte des risques associés à ces performances. De plus, les interfaces entre contrats devront être considérées, car la performance collective de la stratégie peut être dégradée par rapport aux performances individuelles de chaque contrat. Ainsi, notre travail de recherche vise à mettre en place des solutions à la fois techniques et pratiques pour d'une part répondre à la question d'identification et de génération d'un ensemble pertinent d'alternatives de contrats et de stratégies contractuelles. D'autre part, construire et mettre en œuvre un système d’estimation et évaluation, permettant d’arriver à une proposition de stratégie contractuelle la plus performante pour le projet de développement. / A development project of a new oil and gas facility starts when the exploration and the appraisal studies estimate the exploitation of the hydrocarbon deposit is economically viable. The complexity and the size of the projects encountered in the industry impose to split them into several pieces, which represent the scope of future contracts. Each scope is then awarded to a contractor with a specific type of contract and selection mode, forming the contractual strategy to adopt in the project. During the contractual strategy selection process, oil companies encounters three recurring difficulties related to: 1) the identification of a reasonable and relevant set of alternatives; 2) the evaluation of potential alternatives, which depends on criteria from different scales and natures; and, 3) the need to substantiate the chosen contractual strategy solution. The research problem is to propose a decision aiding methodology for the development and selection of the most appropriate contractual strategy. It has to be the most performing in terms of cost and schedule, but should also consider the risks associated with these performances. In addition, the interfaces between the different contracts should also be considered, because the collective performance of the whole strategy may be degraded compared to the performance of each individual contract. Thereby, our work seeks to implement both technical and practical solutions to answer on the one hand the question of identification and generation of a relevant set of alternatives, at contracts and contractual strategy levels. On the other hand, to build and implement a system of estimation and evaluation of contractual strategies, allowing to come up with the most performing proposal to the upstream development project.
23

On the Measurement and Visualization of Analysis Activity: A Study of Successful Strategies for Web-based Information Analysis

Zelik, Daniel Justin 30 August 2012 (has links)
No description available.
24

Méthodes socio-statistiques pour l’aide à la décision en milieu industriel : Application à la gestion des capacités d’un système d’information en industrie micro-électronique / Industrial decision-aid socio-statistical methods : Applied to the capacity management of an IS in the microelectronics industry

Lutz, Michel 14 May 2013 (has links)
Les données industrielles offrent un matériau pour la prise de décision. Les travaux présentés concernent la transformation de données brutes en connaissances, pour contribuer au système de connaissances d’une organisation et améliorer son système décisionnel. Un processus d’aide à la décision est proposé. Il implique les acteurs de l’organisation et l’emploi de méthodes formelles. D’abord, il analyse et formalise les problématiques décisionnelles. Ensuite, il construit une aide la décision quantitative. Cette méthodologie est appliquée à un problème particulier : la gestion des capacités des TI d’une usine de STMicroelectronics. En effet, les managers doivent assurer un équilibre entre le coût de l’infrastructure TI et le niveau de service offert. Notre processus offre une aide pertinente. Il permet de surmonter deux enjeux, fréquents lors de la gestion des capacités : la complexité des systèmes IT et la prise en compte de l’activité métier. Situant ces travaux dans le cadre du référentiel ITIL, l’application du processus permet de constituer des modèles prédictifs, mettant en relation l’activité des serveurs informatiques et l’activité industrielle. Cette application permet aussi de contrôler dynamiquement la validité des modèles, ainsi que l’activité quotidienne du SI. Nos travaux formalisent quantitativement des connaissances, en favorisent l’utilisation dans les processus décisionnels, et en assurent l’évolution dans le temps. Nos recherches posent des fondations pour un plus large recours plus à l’exploitation des données issues des systèmes de production, dans le cadre du développement de systèmes de support à la décision et de perspectives Big Data. / A proper analysis of industrial data can provide material for decision making. The research work presented deals with the question: how can one convert raw data into useable information, to contribute to the knowledge management of an organization and improve its dynamic decision making? A decision-aid process is proposed. It implies actors of the organization and use of formal methods. Firstly, it analyses and formalizes decisional problems. Then, it develops an appropriate decision-aid on the basis of statistics. Our methodology is applied to a specific issue: capacity management of IT of a STMicroelectronics plant. This application raises a decision issue: managers have to ensure the right balance between infrastructure cost and service level offered. We demonstrate that the process may provide relevant support. This negates two managerial dilemmas, usually encountered when managing capacity: complexity of IT systems and incorporation of the business activity. Our application has been developed in the scope of the ITIL framework. It will be shown how the process builds predictive models, which link the activity of hardware servers to the industrial activity. Methods are also proposed, to monitor daily the quality of these models, as well as the overall activity of the IS. This work helps at formalizing quantitatively organizational knowledge, facilitating its use in decisional processes, but also ensuring its positive change over time. We hope this research is laying some foundations for a broader exploitation of the data stored in modern manufacturing systems, through future development of decision-support systems and Big Data initiatives.
25

Régulation adaptative multi-objectif et multi-mode aux carrefours à feux / Multi-objective and multi-mode adaptive traffic control on signal-controlled junctions

Dujardin, Yann 24 June 2013 (has links)
Afin de répondre à la problématique de la régulation multi-objectif et multi-mode des carrefours à feux, nous proposons trois modèles de programmation linéaire mixte en nombres entiers constituant les moteurs d'un système de régulation pleinement adaptatif, ainsi que deux procédures interactives d'optimisation multi-objectif permettant d'adapter itérativement une “politique de régulation” à la situation de trafic. Les critères pris en compte, tous à minimiser, sont le temps d'attente et le nombre d'arrêts des véhicules particuliers, et un critère dédié aux transports en commun permettant de fixer un temps d'attente souhaité pour chaque bus. Des expérimentations ont montré qu'un des trois modèles, dit hybride, se démarque positivement des deux autres. Ce modèle a alors été mis en œuvre avec une des deux procédures interactives, permettant de contrôler un trafic simulé sur une période d'une heure dans différents scénarios types, et comparé à un système de régulation semi-adaptatif. / In order to answer the multi-objective and multi-mode adaptive traffic control problem, we propose three models of mixed integer linear programming, usable with two multi-objective optimization interactive methods, allowing to adapt a “traffic control policy” iteratively to the current traffic situation. The considered criteria, all of them to be minimized, are the total waiting time and the number of stops for private vehicles and a criterion dedicated to public transports allowing to set a target waiting time for every bus. Experiments showed that one of the three models, called hybrid model, distinguishes itself positively from the others. This model was implemented with one of the two interactive methods, allowing to control a traffic simulated over one hour in different scenarios, and was compared to a semi-adaptive traffic control system.
26

Une approche orientée utilisateur pour la supervision des orchestrations de services / User-Oriented approach for service orchestrations supervision

Fakhfakh, Nabil 06 June 2012 (has links)
La qualité de service est devenue aujourd'hui une notion incontournable dans le développement des applications logicielles, en particulier dans le cadre des architectures orientées services. Les travaux de cette thèse se focalisent sur la supervision de la qualité de service des applications orientées services, définies sous forme d'orchestrations de services. L'approche de supervision proposée dans ce contexte est générique. Elle repose sur des patrons de flux de contrôle des orchestrations de services pouvant être implémentés en intégralité ou en partie par tout langage d'orchestration de services. D'autre part, elle ne pose aucune restriction, ni sur les attributs qualité à surveiller par le système de supervision, ni sur leurs représentations. Cette approche de supervision se distingue des approches existantes par l'exploitation d'un modèle de préférences orienté utilisateur, permettant de représenter fidèlement la satisfaction de ce dernier. Le degré de satisfaction, issu du modèle de préférences, constitue une information de haut niveau représentant la qualité globale de l'orchestration étudiée. Sur la base de ce degré de satisfaction, de nouvelles stratégies de surveillance sont proposées afin de satisfaire les attentes de l'utilisateur. L'élaboration du modèle de préférences exploite la méthode d'aide à la décision multi-critères MACBETH étendue avec l'opérateur d'agrégation de l'intégrale de Choquet 2-additive. Une illustration de l'approche de supervision a été réalisée sur une orchestration de services, représentant un processus industriel dans le domaine du pilotage d'atelier de production. Les travaux de cette thèse ont été réalisés dans le cadre d'un projet R&D regroupant sept éditeurs de progiciels dans le domaine du MES (Manufacturing Execution System). / Quality of Service (QoS) is an important issue today in the developement of software applications, especially in the context of Service-Oriented Architectures (SOA). The work of this thesis focuses on QoS supervision of service-oriented applications, defined as service orchestrations. The proposed supervision approach is generic. It is based on workflow control-flow patterns, which can be entirety or partillay implemented by any service orchestration language. On the other hand, it does not make any restrictions, neither on the monitored QoS attributes , nor on their representations. This supervision approach is based on a user-oriented preferences model, that represents faithfully the user satisfaction. The satisfaction degree derived from the preferences model is a high-level information representing the overall quality of the orchestration. New monitoring strategies are proposed on the basis of this satisfaction degree in order to satisfy user expectations. The elaboration of the preferences model uses the MACBETH method extended to the 2-additive Choquet integral operator as a multi criteria decision aiding method. An illustration of the approach is carried out on a service orchestration representing a Manufacturing Execution System (MES) process. This work was realized in a R&D project involving seven software vendors in the field of MES.STAR
27

[en] FACILITATING CONSENSUS BUILDING IN NEGOTIATIVE PROCESSES: A MULTICRITERIA APPROACH / [es] FACILITANDO LA LLEGADA AL CONSENSO EN PROCESOS DE NEGOCIACIÓN UN ENFOQUE MULTICRITERIO / [pt] FACILITANDO A CHEGADA AO CONSENSO EM PROCESSOS DE NEGOCIAÇÃO: UM ENFOQUE MULTICRITÉRIO

ANTONIO MANUEL MACHADO MOREIRA 18 July 2001 (has links)
[pt] O objetivo da tese é desenvolver uma metodologia multicritério de apoio à decisão, orientada para a negociação em grupo e apoiada em metáforas técnicas e comportamentais. Em tal metodologia, os modelos multicritério são as ferramentas que os agentes de negociação podem utilizar para análise, comparação, seleção e ordenação das alternativas não-dominadas, segundo as suas preferências e recursos. A busca do consenso (pela discussão e entendimento claro, na participação da essência de pontos de vista individuais mais importantes) é um dos princípios de trabalho do grupo no quadro de referência do processo de decisão. O apoio de metáforas técnicas e comportamentais dos modelos de decisão existentes é fundamental. Essas metáforas, quando combinadas com as tecnologias computacional e de comunicação, ajudam os decisores a utilizar mais eficaz e eficientemente os métodos multicritério de apoio à decisão. A metodologia de apoio à decisão em grupo é ilustrada pela simulação de dois casos (caso 1 - a Compra de um Apartamento e caso 2 - a Fábrica de Montagem de Caminhões - a Manufatura Virtual). Eles mostram a importância e a utilidade desse padrão metodológico no ambiente de decisão em grupo: as metas são melhor explicitadas e evoluem para patamares de preferência superiores e homogêneos no grupo (os objetivos ficam mais claros, explícitos e dimensionados nas discussão do grupo); os critérios individuais acompanham essa dinâmica, transformam-se em critérios decisores do grupo, (independentes, exaustivos e operacionais) e, na etapa final do processo, no(s) critério(s) fundamental(is) decisor (es), como a soma das propriedades fundamentais dos critérios; as soluções são comparadas entre si em sucessivas etapas, conforme o grupo explicita e consensa os critérios individuais, os critérios de grupo e o(s) critério (s) fundamental(is) decisor(es); esse(s) último(s) apontará (ão) a solução não-dominada e final. Em cada uma dessas etapas, as soluções dominadas são abandonadas e só permanecem no processo as não-dominadas. Os resultados nos dois casos mostram uma maior eficiência e satisfação no grupo, pela solução final consensada. Ela é superior qualitativa e quantitativamente à solução indicada pelos modelos tradicionais, até mesmo se comparada à(s) alternativa(s) julgada(s) pelo critério fundamental(is) decisor(es) financeiro, além de mais criativa e envolvida com as variáveis ambientais do processo de decisão. Os riscos assumidos pelo grupo são discutidos, avaliados e minimizados na análise e avaliação das alternativas finais (por meio das ações e reações) e mostram elas serem alcançáveis se implementadas. Elas podem ser maiores, mas são melhor analisadas e ponderadas na racionalidade do consenso do grupo e a solução final aplaudida. / [en] The main purpose of the thesis is to develop a multicriteria decision methodology to support the group negotiation, based on the classic multicritera approaches technical and behaviour metaphors. Such a methodology combines the multicriteria approaches as tool, where the decision agents can use them to analyse, to compare, to select and to rank the non domain solutions, by their preferences and resources. Negotiation is a interactive decision process between two or more agents to research their preferences and needs agreement. The search of the consensus on the group is one important source to the framework and it is primordial the basis of the multicritera approaches technical and behaviour metaphors. These metaphors mix the computer and communication technologies and help, capacity and efficiency, the agents to use the multicriteria approaches. The vigour and value of the multicriteria group system is confirmed by two simulate cases (case 1 - Purchase a Flat; case 2 - The new VW Truck Assemble). They show the approach utility on group decision: the goals flow to high group preferences and homogenous levels; the criteria s increase their value and dynamics, they exchange themselves to decision and last group criteria s (independent, robust and better quantifies ones) to compound a total factor or an identical sum to the criteria properties; the non-domain solutions are compared each other in progression stages, first by the individual criteria properties, after by the group criteria s and finally by the total consensus decision factor, it will mark the winner non domain solution. On each step, the dominate solutions are disregarded and only the non-dominate solutions remain on the process. The winner consensus solution for each case has an higher add value and a group gratification. It has a better quality and quantity dimension (financial and qualifying - industrial production environmental) when it is compared with the classic approach ones; or even with the last non- domain solutions, before the essential decision criteria(s) runs, it is more inventive and the decision process environmental sources can involve it. During the group discussion the risks are contested, valued and minimised when the final solutions (activities and reactions) are compared: they can be greater but they will be better analysed and measured by the rationality group consensus and the final solution is succeeded. / [es] El objetivo de esta tesis es desarrollar una metodología multicriterio de apoyo a la decisión, orientada a la negociación en grupo y apoyada en metáforas técnicas y comportamentales. En tal metodología, los modelos multicriterio constituyen la herramienta principal que los agentes de negociación pueden utilizar para el análisis, comparación, selección y ordenamiento de las alternativas no-dominadas, según sus preferencias y recursos. La búsqueda del consenso (a través de la discusión y entendimiento claro) es uno de los principios de trabajo del grupo en el cuadro de referencia del proceso de decisión. Es fundamental el apoyo de metáforas técnicas y comportamentales de los modelos de decisión existentes. Estas metáforas, cuando se combinan con las tecnologías computacional y de comunicación, ayudan a los decisores a utilizar más eficaz y eficientemente los métodos multicritério de apoyo a la decisión. La metodología de apoyo a la decisión en grupo se ilustra a través de la simulación de dos casos (caso 1 - la Compra de un Apartamento y caso 2 - la Fábrica de Montaje de Camiones - la Manufactura Virtual). Estas simulaciones muestran la importancia y utilidad del padrón metodológico en el ambiente de decisión en grupo: las metas son mejor explicitadas y se observa una evolución en la preferencia y homogeneidad del grupo (los objetivos fican más claros, explícitos y dimensionados en las discusión del grupo). Los criterios individuales acompañan esa dinámica, se transforman en criterios decisores del grupo, (independientes, exhaustivos y operacionales). En la etapa final del proceso, en el(s) criterio(s) fundamental(es) decisor(es), visto como la suma de las propiedades fundamentales de los criterios, las soluciones se compararan entre sí en sucesivas etapas, conforme el grupo explicita y consensa los criterios individuales, los criterios de grupo y el(los) criterio(s) fundamental(es) decisor(es); este(estos) último(s) indicará(an) la solución no-dominada y final. En cada una desas etapas, se abandonan las soluciones dominadas y sólo permanecen en el proceso las no-dominadas. Los resultados en los dos casos muestran una mayor eficiencia y satisfacción en el grupo, por la solución final consensada. Ésta es superior cualitativa y cuantitativamente a la solución indicada por los modelos tradicionales, incluso cuando se compara con la(s) alternativa(s) juzgadas(s) por el criterio fundamental(es) decisor(es) financiero, además de ser más creativa y relacionada con las variables ambientales del proceso de decisión. Los riesgos asumidos por el grupo se discuten, evalúan y minimizan en el análisis y evaluación de las alternativas finales (por medio de las acciones y reacciones). Éstas pueden no ser mayores, mas son mejor analizadas y ponderadas en la racionalidad del consenso del grupo y la solución final, aplaudida.
28

Aide à la décision pour l'apprentissage / Decision support for learning

Kushlaf, Najah 21 March 2014 (has links)
Les travaux réalisés dans cette thèse proposent une aide à la décision pour améliorer la qualité de l’apprentissage. L’apprentissage scolaire englobe deux dimension; une dimension humaine et une dimension pédagogique. La dimension humaine inclut l’apprenant et l’enseignant. La dimension pédagogique, représentée par le programme fixé par l’établissement éducatif, correspond au savoir. Ce dernier va se transformer en connaissance chez l’apprenant. Les deux notions de connaissance et savoir sont donc tout à fait différentes. La distance entre les deux représente la distance entre ce que l’enseignant présente (le savoir) et ce que l’apprenant acquière (la connaissance). La qualité de l’apprentissage concerne les apprenants qui vont à l’école pour acquérir le savoir. En fait, apprendre consiste à intérioriser le savoir. Cette intériorisation demande des efforts pour un changement intellectuel persévérant et exige une continuité basée sur les expériences antérieures. L’acquisition du savoir et sa transformation en connaissance par l’apprenant sont influencées par plusieurs facteurs qui interviennent positivement ou négativement sur la quantité et la qualité de cette connaissance. Il peut résider chez l’apprenant une confusion entre les deux notions qui peut l’amener à valoriser ou ignorer sa connaissance. Le processus de construction des connaissances par le savoir diffusé exige une constante mise en œuvre de procédures d’évaluation. Le processus d’évaluation apprécie alors la structure de la connaissance pour prendre des décisions destinées à la faire évoluer. Cependant, lors d’une évaluation, la confusion entre connaissance et savoir peut amener l’apprenant à valoriser le score, négligeant ainsi le regard qu’il pourrait porter sur les processus de transformation des connaissances au profit d’une restitution la plus fidèle possible du savoir. Cette confusion peut être mise en évidence pourvu que l’évaluation intègre une dimension processuelle. Dès lors, l’évaluation peut être mieux associée à des actions d’amélioration et de transformation des connaissances. L’évaluation peut alors être abordée dans une logique d’aide à la décision. Dans ce travail nous montrerons donc qu’une situation d’apprentissage s’apparente à une situation d’aide à la décision. / The research realized in this thesis proposes a decision support to improve the quality of learning. The learning includes two dimensions; human dimension and pedagogic one. The human dimension includes the learner and the teacher. The pedagogic dimension represented in curriculum set by the educational establishment; it is the know. The learner is going to transform the know into knowledge. Thus the know and the knowledge are two notions completely different. The distance between both is the distance between what the teacher presents (the know) and what the learner acquires (the knowledge). The quality of the learning concerns the learners who go to the school to acquire the know. In fact, learning consists in interiorizing the know. This internalization requires the efforts for persistent intellectual change and demands continuity based on past experiences. The acquisition of knowledge and its transformation into knowledge by the learner is influenced by several factors that affect positively or negatively on the quantity and quality of this knowledge. The confusion between the know and the knowledge guide the learner to value or to ignore his knowledge. The knowledge construction process by the diffused know requires an constant evaluation process. The process of evaluation then appreciates the structure of knowledge to make decisions intended to make it evolve. However, during an evaluation, the confusion between knowledge and knowledge can bring learner to value the score so neglecting the importance which he must give for the transformation knowledge process in favor of the highest possible fidelity of knowledge. This confusion can be detected provided that the evaluation includes a processual dimension. Therefore, the evaluation may be better associated with improvement actions and transformation of knowledge. Then the evaluation can be addressed in a logical decision support. Therefore In this research we demonstrate that the learning situation is a decision aiding situation.
29

[pt] CAPACIDADES DINÂMICAS EM CADEIAS DE SUPRIMENTOS: UMA PRIORIZAÇÃO BASEADA EM CENÁRIOS PROSPECTIVOS / [en] DYNAMIC CAPABILITIES IN SUPPLY CHAINS: A PRIORITIZATION BASED ON PROSPECTIVE SCENARIOS

MARCELO GHIARONI DE A E SILVA 03 November 2022 (has links)
[pt] O gerenciamento da cadeia de suprimentos contribui para a obtenção de vantagem competitiva da firma. Neste contexto, as capacidades dinâmicas alinhadas às cadeias de suprimentos tornam-se fundamentais quando as empresas enfrentam crescente turbulência e incerteza, especialmente em situações de crise, como o ocorrido a partir do surto de COVID-19. O presente estudo propõe uma metodologia de apoio ao planejamento estratégico voltado às cadeias de suprimentos. Integra técnicas de prospecção de cenários à modelagem de apoio multicritério de decisão, mediante a aplicação do método Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) às capacidades dinâmicas em cadeias de suprimentos. Foram prospectados três cenários – pessimista, atual e otimista – visando obter quais seriam as relações das capacidades dinâmicas e respectivas práticas em cada cenário. As capacidades dinâmicas em cadeias de suprimentos, os 3A s – Agilidade, Adaptabilidade e Alinhamento – foram extraídas de Whitten et al. (2012) que, por sua vez, baseou-se em Lee (2004). O modelo foi testado empiricamente. Especialistas atuantes na área de gerenciamento da cadeia de suprimentos responderam ao questionário formulado. Os achados indicam que as capacidades dinâmicas e respectivas práticas variam em função dos cenários. Como contribuição prática, espera-se que este estudo auxilie no processo de planejamento estratégico das organizações. Como o gerenciamento de cadeias de suprimentos é um campo que permanece em construção teórica, entende-se que a hierarquização das capacidades dinâmicas em cadeias de suprimentos – agilidade, adaptabilidade e alinhamento – em função de cenários prospectivos possa contribuir para o desenvolvimento desta teoria. / [en] Supply chain management contributes to the firm s competitive advantage. In this context, dynamic capabilities aligned with supply chains become critical when companies face increasing turmoil and uncertainty, especially in crises such as the one that occurred during the COVID-19 outbreak. The present study proposes a methodology to support strategic planning aimed at supply chains. It integrates prospective scenarios to multicriteria decision analysis modeling, by applying the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to dynamic capabilities in supply chains. Three scenarios were prospected – pessimistic, current and optimistic – to obtain what would be the relationships of dynamic capabilities and respective practices in each scenario. Dynamic capabilities in supply chains, the 3A s – Agility, Adaptability and Alignment – were taken from Whitten et al. (2012) which, in turn, was based on Lee (2004). The model was empirically tested. Specialists working in the area of supply chain management answered the questionnaire formulated. Findings indicate that dynamic capabilities and related practices vary across scenarios. As a practical contribution, it is expected that this study will help in the strategic planning process of organizations. As supply chain management is a field that remains under theoretical construction, it is understood that the hierarchy of dynamic capabilities in supply chains – agility, adaptability and alignment – in terms of prospective scenarios can contribute to the development of this theory.
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LouLou : An exploration in the role of physical objects in the two-dimensional world of therapy

Mohammadi, Paria January 2020 (has links)
The world health organization has predicted that by 2030, depression will cause more early deaths and disability than cancer, stroke, or accidents. The number of burnouts has been increasing during the past years since we are so focused on our materialistic needs, educating ourselves in managing our devices. Meanwhile, we have not learned how to manage our own emotions. In our Swedish society today, we have people from different backgrounds and linguistic skills that find it difficult to talk about their emotional states and ask for help. At the same time, most of the methods used in therapy are done verbally or in writing that can be hard, even for those who speak the same language. In my project, I have interviewed psychotherapists and individuals who have attended therapy sessions. Speaking to a therapist, I realized the lack of physical objects in this field where almost everything is communicated verbally or on paper. During my process, I have learned about the importance of three-dimensional objects for a patient and how these objects can be used as aids to help one open up and express emotions. In this area, I have explored the following question: Whether or not emotions would abstract into forms? Can we describe our mixed emotions by using shapes, objects, and colors? What can I, as a designer, contribute to the two-dimensional world of therapy and mental health? Based on the results from several workshops and studying Robert Putchik’s theory of emotions, I created a set of tools. These aiding tools help the patient to open up about mixed feelings and break them down into primary emotions. These tools aim to help the patient to address and categorize emotions and easily communicate with the therapist. / Världshälsoorganisationen har förutspått att vid 2030 kommer depression att orsaka mer tidiga död och funktionshinder än cancer, stroke eller olyckor. Antalet utbrändhet har ökat under de senaste åren eftersom vi är så fokuserade på våra materialistiska behov, lär oss att hantera tekniken men vi har inte lärt oss hur vi ska hantera våra egna känslor.   Detta är aktuell idag i det svenska samhället där folk med olika bakgrund som har språksvårigheter lyckas inte uttrycka deras känslomässiga tillstånd för att få det hjälp det behöver. Samtidigt, de flesta metoderna som används i terapi sker muntligt eller skriftligt, vilket kan vara svårt även för dem som pratar samma språk.   I mitt projekt har intervjuat psykoterapeuter och individer som har varit på terapisessioner. Under processens gång har jag insett betydelsen som ett tredimensionellt objekt kan ha för patienten och hur detta kan användas som hjälpmedel och stöd. Inom detta område har jag bearbetat följande frågor: Huruvida skulle känslor abstraheras i former? Kan vi beskriva våra blandade känslor med hjälp av objekt? Vad kan jag som designer bidra till den tvådimensionella världen av terapi och psykisk hälsa?

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