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央行公開市場操作對利率變動影響與公司避險效果分析李卿企, Lee ,Chin Chi Unknown Date (has links)
本研究分為兩大部份,第一部份為探討利率的變動,主要研究央行每日公開市場操作對利率的影響,此部份包含了兩篇文章,分別為「以門檻自我迴歸模型(TAR,Threshold auto-regression model,Tong(1983),Tsay(1989))估計央行公開市場操作對利率的影響」及「以Multiple Criteria Selection Model (Maddala,1983)估計央行公開市場操作對利率的影響」,研究樣本為日資料。在第一篇文章利用門檻自我迴歸模型估計用以區分央行動態性或防禦性公開市場操作的指標 的門檻值,利用估計出的 推論央行進行動態性或防禦性操作。第二篇文章利用第一篇文章所估計出的 將樣本區分為央行進行防禦性操作或動態性操作的樣本,並同時考慮央行是否進行公開市場操作反應函數及央行一旦決定進行公開市場操作後其要採取防禦性或動態性公開市場操作的反應函數,以Multiple Criteria Selection Model估計,同時本文更進一步考慮央行對於公開市場操作態度改變對此影響效果的影響,實證結果發現在央行總裁表示將更積極公開市場操作後,即2003年3月14日之後,發現當央行進行動態性公開市場操作可以有效的改變市場利率,而當央行進行防禦性操作則可以有效的沖銷準備金市償的干擾因子,降低市場利率的波動。
本論文第二部份為分析衍生性金融產品避險對公司價值的影響,比較與檢定有避險公司與無避險公司其公司價值差異,並討論公司以衍生性金融商品避險的動機,同時也比較當公司決定避險後,選擇大範圍避險與小範圍避險對公司價值是否也有影響。研究的對象為台灣上市公司中的529家公司,結果發現出口比率與公司規模是公司選擇避險重要的考慮因素,同時發現避險公司的Tobin’s Q、ROA、ROE與PMS皆大於無避險公司。 / There are two issues we concern in this paper. The first one is to investigate the daily effect of open market operation on short-term interest rate. The second one is to analysis the effect of hedging with derivatives by the firms on the firm’s value. About the first issue, the net issue of central bank’s certificates of deposit (CD) is functioned as the open market operation instrument. At beginning, employing a simple linear regression model, the benchmark model in our paper, the counter-intuitive evidence that issuance of DC decreases the short-term interest rate is found. To solve this puzzle, first, we define an index of open market operation to disentangle the effect of the defensive operation from the dynamic operation and use TAR model to estimate the value of . Next, we apply the Multiple Criteria Selection Model (MCSM) to solve the problems of selection bias and to estimate the two decision functions and the effects of daily open market operations. At last, we also consider the change of central bank’s attitude toward the open market operations. We separate the sample by the date (13-April-2003) of the speech of the governor of CBC, Fai-Nan Perng. We find that after 13-April-2003, the issuance of CD increase the short-term interest rate under dynamic O.M.O. and the coefficient is significantly different from zero, which means the daily liquidity effect exists.
About the second issue, we compare and test the firm’s value difference between the firms hedging with derivatives and the firms without hedging. We also try to find the determinants of firm’s hedging. Our sample is the 529 firms listed in TSEC (Taiwan stock exchange corp.).
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民意公共性與媒體再現:以民調報導與談話性節目為例楊意菁 Unknown Date (has links)
本論文旨在探索民意的公共性與公眾意涵,亦即從公共/眾的角度探討民意的概念。此外,本文也將進一步地剖析媒體再現民意公共/眾的問題,並實際檢驗報紙民調報導與電視談話性節目再現民意及其公共性的真正意涵。
為了有效瞭解媒體再現民意的問題,本論文建構了觀察民意公共性的指標,並以此作為觀察分析報紙民調報導與電視談話性節目的依據。在報紙民調報導方面,本文採用了論述分析的方式檢驗報紙民調新聞再現民意的表現,並以聯合報:中國時報與自由時報三大報為分析對象。電視談話性節目方面則以個案研究的方式進行,並選擇TVBS「2100全民開講」為研究對象。至於研究時間則區分為選舉期間與非選舉期間。
本研究發現,不論是報紙民調新聞或是電視談話性節目,其所再現的民意公眾皆具有虛構/想像公眾、集體公眾、斷裂公眾的意涵。但民調報導則以統計數字建構了型式理性的公眾內涵,並以隱喻的論述方式轉喻了搖擺公眾成為民意公眾;談話性節目則利用公眾聲音建構了談話公眾的特色,而節目的內容型態也展現了非理性的情緒公眾意涵。民意公共場域方面,以上兩種媒體所呈現的公共領域皆具有政治領域的型態(民調報導議題與談話節目討論議題大部份皆以政治議題為主),而民意的批判公開性也轉變為媒體操縱公開性的意涵,甚至於談話性節目已成為代議政治政黨運作的公共場域,再次賦予了傳統代表公開性的重生機會。至於民意的批判與溝通意涵,報紙民調的固定量化報導型式並無法展現民意理性溝通與批判的精神;而談話性節目的談話論述充滿了二元對立、衝突以及戲劇化的效果,不但無法反映理性批判的本質,也使得溝通論證失去了民主論證的意涵。因此,本文認為現代民意經由媒體再現後,民意的公共/眾精神不再,只成為一種對實在主義的宣稱以及符號建構民意的概念。
關鍵詞:公共、公眾、民意、民意公共性、媒體再現、公開性、論證民主。
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從合成型擔保債權憑證之發行論金融資產證券化條例之改進與缺失戴慧雯 Unknown Date (has links)
根據ISDA研究,合成型證券化商品之發行量已突破傳統型證券化商品,顯見合成型證券化商品對於金融機構經營策略之運用、投資市場的多元性以及風險管理工具的發展,均占一席之地。我國由「金融資產證券化條例」授權主管機關擴充「外國證券化債券」得為證券化資產種類中,即包含外國「合成型擔保債權憑證」;該產品特徵在於證券發行機構無須實質持有資產,投資人係透過發行機構承作信用衍生性商品以承擔標的資產之風險,並以該信用衍生性商品之「風險貼水」作為證券收益來源。
「合成型擔保債權憑證」架構特質,異於國內金融業者依據「金融資產證券化條例」之明文規範,得發行之受益證券或資產基礎證券。然「金融資產證券化條例」對於得證券化資產,授權主管機關得視國際潮流而另行擴充的立法方式,目的在調整立法彈性以適應國際趨勢,並提高競爭力;但目前條例尚未允許業者發行合成型證券化商品的情勢下,「外國證券化債券」得為資產池資產,反而更彰顯「金融資產證券化條例」未跟隨國際證券化市場之發展而調整的事實。
本論文參考美國SEC發佈之Regulation AB之公開原則為主軸,針對發行人、創始機構、發起人、存託人等參與者的責任,檢討國內條例就證券化市場所規範之公開原則、民事責任的賠償主體是否完善。接著探討合成型證券化商品的發行,對於「金融資產證券化條例」的基本架構應有的修正。期望可健全並多元證券化市場,同時亦促進金融機構風險管理能力。
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撤銷上市櫃輔導公司盈餘品質之探討劉采薇 Unknown Date (has links)
本研究主要針對我國上市櫃輔導之制度,探討撤銷上市(櫃)輔導公司之中,獲准上市(櫃)之公開發行公司,與其他自願撤銷輔導上市櫃之公開發行公司相較,於撤銷輔導上市櫃之前二年至後二年的研究期間,兩者之間的盈餘品質是否存在差異。
實證結果顯示,以損失認列時效性迴歸模型分析時,獲准上市(櫃)之公開發行公司較自願撤銷輔導上市櫃之公開發行公司有較佳的盈餘品質;以盈餘時效性迴歸模型分析時,自願撤銷輔導上市櫃之公開發行公司較獲准上市(櫃)之公開發行公司有較佳的盈餘品質。本研究推論此分歧結果,由我國臺灣證券交易所股份有限公司有價證券上市審查準則與財團法人中華民國證券櫃檯買賣中心證券商營業處所買賣有價證券審查準則對於申請上市(櫃)之獲利門檻要求所造成。 / Based on regulations on listing guidance released by the Taiwan Stock Exchange Corporation (TSEC) mission, this study investigates the difference in earnings quality between firms that voluntarily cancel their listing guidance applications and firm that complete their initial public offerings (IPOs) over the period of two years prior to the cancellation and two years after the cancellation of listing guidance application.
The results show that, under timeliness in loss recognition regression model, using a two-year duration prior to the IPO or listing guidance application cancellation for research period, the earnings quality of IPO firms over the two-year-period prior to their IPOs is better than that of firms voluntarily cancelled their listing guidance applications. On the contrary, under timeliness in earnings regression model, earnings quality of firms cancelled their listing guidance application voluntarily is better than that of the IPO firms. The empirical evidence thus suggests that the inconsistence on earnings quality measured in terms of loss and earnings recognition may due to the profitability threshold imposed by TSEC and GreTai Securities Market on rules governing the review of stock listings.
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評價未公開發行公司流動性價差之研究-以日本市場為例 / The study of liquidity discount in valuing privately held companies- the case of Japanese market許淑茵 Unknown Date (has links)
本研究之主旨為透過「併購交易比較法」探討日本市場「未公開發行公司」之流動性折價幅度。綜觀現存文獻中,衡量流動性折價的實證研究方法有「首次公開發行比較法」、「限制性股票比較法」與「退場之市場倍數期望值比較法」。由於上述研究方法皆有其缺失之處,因此本研究沿用Koeplin, Sarin, and Shapiro[2000]提出之「併購交易比較法」以併購交易之市場倍數衡量「未公開發行公司」之折價幅度。更進一步藉由建構「參考配對組合」,為併購標的為「未公開發行公司」之交易案尋找一組與其在相同國家、交易年份、產業與類似規模之併購標的為「公開發行公司」交易案,計算各市場倍數之流動性折價幅度。
本研究檢視西元1998年至2007年,共十年間於日本發生之併購交易,並限制為控制性股權交易。最終可得樣本為146個配對組合,平均流動性折價幅度為22%~30%。經由橫斷面迴歸分析發現,所觀察到的流動性價差隨「未公開發行公司」特性與產業不同而有所差異。產業別之研究分析發現,「建築業」為六大產業中各市場倍數所計算的流動性折價幅度最深者;「金融、保險及不動產業」,則為六大產業中各市場倍數所計算的流動性折價幅度最小者。交易年份別之研究發現,各市場倍數計算出的流動性價差所呈現的趨勢與日本市場歷年來併購交易案數量呈現「反向關係」,即當併購交易熱絡期間,「流動性價差」走降;而於併購交易案較為冷卻期間,「流動性價差」則上升。對於若為高成長的大型公司,其流動性折價幅度則將大幅低於其他條件之公司。由本研究之實證結果顯示,投資人爾後於評價「流動性之價差」時,將不宜應用單一折價幅度於所有「未公開發行公司」。 / Little is known about valuation of privately held companies, for which the fact that there is no sufficient information and no ready market. In general, investors will pay less for one there is no ready market compared to one that is readily marketable, ceteris paribus. Then we all accept that a private firm’s value will be reduced for lack of marketability, applying the value of the discount is a difficult matter. To the best of our knowledge, research in the past decades has relied on “IPO Approach”, “Restricted stock approach”, and “Expected exit multiple approach”. Those approaches have inherent drawbacks so this study follows the current approach of Koeplin, Sarin, and Shapiro (2000) to use a matching technique. This study uses “reference portfolio” to construct control portfolios of acquisitions of public companies for each acquisition of private companies.
For 146 comparable reference portfolio between 1998 and 2007 in Japan, the average discount is 22%~30%. Our cross-sectional analysis shows, however, that the discount observed varies with the characteristics of the firm and with the industry. This study breaks down the discount by industry, with the highest discount found in construction and the lowest in finance, insurance and real estate. We also found discount decreases during hot M&A years and increases during cold M&A years. For large and growth private firms, the discount tends to be much smaller. Overall, our findings suggest that using constant discount across private firms is wrong.
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盈餘管理與買回庫藏股後公司績效之關聯性林易靖 Unknown Date (has links)
本研究首先針對台灣上市公司宣告買回庫藏股後之長期營運績效表現作探討,藉由公司宣告買回後之長期績效表現來探討公司宣告買回庫藏股之主要動機以及資訊意涵,究竟為傳遞公司價值受到低估之訊號或是將多餘現金還給股東,以降低代理成本。接著探討公司宣告買回庫藏股前之盈餘管理行為,發現宣告公司宣告前存在顯著負的異常應計,且與宣告後之營運績效表現呈現負相關。盈餘管理之程度隨著公司買回比率以及宣告前經理人持股增加。宣告前之異常應計數與宣告後之營運績效表現呈現顯著負相關,同時也發現公司宣告買回庫藏股後之長期營運績效表現成長,受到宣告前盈餘管理行為之影響,並非宣告公司真實的營運績效成長。
因此本研究發現台灣上市公司宣告買回庫藏股整體而言雖有宣告後之績效成長,尤以買回意圖強烈之宣告公司成長幅度最明顯,但是並非代表宣告公司之真實成長,而是受到宣告公司宣告前盈餘管理行為之影響;買回意圖低之宣告公司,其宣告後績效表現並無進步(甚至退步),表示從長期營運績效之角度而言其宣告動機並非價值受到低估。且無論買回意圖為何,宣告前均存在顯著負的異常應計。綜合上述本研究推論,就長期營運績效的角度來看,台灣上市公司宣告買回庫藏股並非主要以傳遞公司價值受到低估為主要目的。就宣告後之長期績效表現以及宣告前之異常應計變化而言,宣告動機較可能符合現金流量假說、盈餘管理動機假說以及經理人動機假說。 / This study examine the long-term operation and stock performance after open-market repurchases of Taiwan company in order to find out the information content of open-market repurchase decisions.We also examine the earning management behavior before open-market repurchase, and find that the average firm report significantly negative abnormal accruals prior to open-market repurchases. The extent of the downward earnings management increases with the volume of the company repurchase and CEO ownership.The pre-repurchase abnormal accruals are also significantly associated with future operating performance.
We find that the operation performance of the company improve after open-market repurchase program,especially the companies with actual buyback behavior. The post-repurchase performance of the firm that don’t have buyback intend does not improve,even regress.This study provide evidence suggesting that the post-repurchase long-term operation performance improvement is partly driven by pre-repurchase downward earnings management,rather than genuine grouth of the company. Thus,we provide evidence suggesting that the motive of the Taiwan companies to repurchase stock is not consist with the information signaling hypothesis.The results of this study support implication of free cash hypothesis、earnming management incentive hypothesis and management incentive hypothesis.
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現金增資不同承銷配售方式之股價反應差異 / Stock price response to seasoned equity offerings - the difference of two firm-commitment underwriting procedures in Taiwan張素綾, Chang, Su-Lin Unknown Date (has links)
本研究的主旨在探討台灣證卷交易市場之上市公司辦理現金增資時採用不同承銷配售方式下各種資訊內涵差異,研究樣本包括民國八十四年至民國八十六年間,曾在台灣證卷交易市場宣告辦理現金增資之 278 家公司,其中又區分為 201 家採公開申購配售方式及 77 家採詢價圈購配售方式之現金增資公司樣本。本研究鑑於民國 84 年新版承銷配售制度施行以來,現金增資採行詢價圈購配售方式之公司股價出現特定人套利現象,甚至引發立法院於民國 86 年底,提出修正法案欲將詢價圈購提撥比率之但書規定廢除事件,故本研究目標將著重於探討公開申購配售與詢價圈購兩種不同承銷配售方式來現金增資之公司間其財務屬性及其對股價之影響是否有差異,以檢驗現行的詢價圈購制度是否有缺失。
實證結果顯示:採兩種不同承銷配售方式現金增資之公司,其財務變數並無顯著差異,顯示公司的財務特質並不影響其承銷配售方式的選擇。經由股價反應的驗證則發現採公開申購配售及詢價圈購承銷配售方式之現金增資之公司,其發行宣告首次見報時對股價異常報酬均有顯著正面的影響。但兩者對股價異常報酬之影響於統計上卻發現有顯著差異。至於在首日申購(圈購)日時之股價異常報酬反應,採公開申購配售者為顯著正股價異常報酬反應,採詢價圈購者股價異常報酬則為顯著負反應,因此兩者在首日申購日時對股價之反應有顯著差異,採公開申購配售公司之股價異常報酬反應明顯優於採詢價圈購配售公司。而於發行日時之價格異常報酬反應,採公開申購配售公司並不顯著,採詢價圈購配售方式公司卻有正向股價異常報酬反應,兩種承銷配售方式於發行日時顯示顯著的股價異常報酬反應差異。
兩種承銷配售方式為公司以現金增資向股東或投資大眾取得資金的途徑,其最終目的均相同,因此不同配售方式對股價異常報酬之影響應不會有太大差異,但本研究卻發現在首次宣告日、首日申購日及發行日時三種不同事件日下,兩種配售方式之股價異常報酬反應卻出現顯著差異的情形。由於此一差異與公司的財務特質無關,所以顯示詢價圈購配售方式可能存有缺失,造成特定人可藉由現行制度的漏洞來進行套利或取得比以往更多的新股,因此對於無法進行套利或取得新股的股東而言,現行的詢價圈購制度並不公平,確實有改善之必要。 / The study is based on a sample, consisting of 278firms, of the announcements of SEO(seasoned equity offerings) in Taiwan stock market during the period from Jan. 1996 to Dec. 1997, to detect whether the current circling system in TW is not proper. There are two major SEO underwriting procedures in TW: by offer=for-sales and by circling.
The paper focuses on two types of firms which adapt different SEO underwriting. By comparing the both firms' financial characteristics and stock price responses, we know if the existing system is fair. The evidence shows that 89% financial ratios (in the research) of firms, adapting different underwriting procedures, don't have statistically significant positive abcdrmal returns for both underwriting procedures and the reaction levels for both are different. During the circling procedure, circling firms' stock price response is significantly negative but is significantly positive for offer-for- sales firms'. It's very clear that the latter firms have the better stock price performance than the former. During the days of offerings, circling firms' stock price response is significant positive but is not significant negative for offer-for sales firms'. In the research, we can be sure that these two SEO underwriting procedures are significantly different in all of three event days. Since the different market responses are not associated with firms' financial characteristics, we now can be sure that current circling system exist some problems.
The system may provide some big stockholders having chances to arbitrage and to get more newissuing shares then they should have. To the other stockholders who can't engage in arbitraging and get new issuing shares, the existing circling system is unfair.
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產品、網路評論與消費者特質類別對網路口碑效果之影響 / The effect of product, internet comment, and consumer types on eWOM.施得琪 Unknown Date (has links)
針對近年來消費者從被動地由廠商給予到主動搜尋產品資訊的趨勢,本研究欲探討網路口碑效果影響消費者在面對不同種類產品時所產生的認知差異與偏好的改變。
過去探討網路口碑對消費者的影響往往著重於網路口碑本身的性質,諸如口碑的傳播路徑、口碑所在網站的社群關係或是參考團體的影響力等。然而在網路口碑的傳遞過程當中,除了作為訊號的網路評論之外,還有發訊者:產品及重要的口碑接受者:消費者這兩方。為補足過去研究網路口碑效果的缺陷,本研究希望結合三方的觀點一併探究網路評論的類型、產品類型與消費者類型之間的影響關係,及是否會有任何交互作用的產生。
研究方法以問卷方式進行,樣本選擇經常上網人口的大宗:大學生為主要受測對象,並以ANOVA及t檢定探討網路口碑對於消費者是否有顯著的影響。大部分的研究假設皆受到支持,總合研究結果如下:
1. 評論的正負、產品與消費者類別對於消費者產品態度、評論有用度及影響度皆有獨立的顯著影響
2. 評論的正負、產品與消費者類別等兩兩變數之間甚至是三個變數之間有交互作用產生,而使口碑傳播的結果或有不同。廠商在執行網路行銷活動或面對不同目標市場的消費者時應採取適當的因應辦法,以達到市場有效率的目的。 / The trend of receiving product information given passively by firms has been changed to actively searching the information by consumers. The purpose of this study wants to find out the effects of electronic word-of-mouth (eWOM) to differences in consumer’s cognition and preference changes.
In the past, the research of eWOM always focused on the characteristics of eWOM, like spreading path, the community relationship or the influence of reference groups etc.. However, eWOM not only includes e-comments, but the sender of the comments. To make up the gap of the past researches, this study wants to combine different product categories, types of comments and types of consumers and explore their influences to each other and potential interactions.
This study distributes questionnaires to frequent internet users: college students and uses ANOVA and t test to examine the regression model. The major findings are as the followings:
1. Different product categories, comment types and consumer types each have independent influences on consumer’s attitude and cognition.
2. The interactions effects of different product categories, comment types and consumer types influence the eWOM effect and consumer’s attitude. Firms should select appropriate internet marketing methods corresponding to their target consumers in order to achieve market efficiency.
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刑事偵查資訊對公眾公開之研究-從偵查不公開談起- / Public access to criminal investigative information張時嘉 Unknown Date (has links)
犯罪新聞常是公眾矚目的焦點,在資訊流通快速的現代社會,許多犯罪事件尚未進入司法程序,即因媒體報導而公眾皆知。如果人人對該事件中被指為犯罪者已有定見,對其而為的司法程序又如何能在不受輿論壓力的情形下進行?當「媒體審判」取代了司法審判,法治國原則已盪然無存,當事人權利更受侵犯。然而,這牽涉到許多層面的問題,諸如偵查目的之維護、當事人之人格權、公平審判、無罪推定、社會治安、新聞自由等等,複雜至極,如何在其中尋求平衡點,益顯困難。本文從偵查不公開原則談起,探討偵查資訊對公眾公開的各種問題,分析偵查不公開所保障的各種權利之間如何折衝,並參考美國、德國、奧地利、瑞士等國的立法例或實務見解,與我國現行法制情況進行比較,試圖建構可運作的法律體系,最後並討論在偵查資訊已然公開的情形下,如何進行補救及處置。
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アダム・スミス思想体系と啓蒙思想の遺産SHINOHARA, Hisashi, 篠原, 久 31 March 2011 (has links)
No description available.
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