京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第20749号 / 経博第555号 / 新制||経||282(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科経済システム分析専攻 / (主査)教授 岡田 知弘, 教授 久野 秀二, 教授 宇仁 宏幸 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DGAM

主要章節為：第一章是緒論，第二章是市場結構與利潤率的主要概念，第三章是台灣 製造業的市場結構與利潤率的一般觀察，第四章是台灣製造業的市場結構與利潤率的 一般關係，第五章是開放經濟下市場結構與利潤率的關係，第六章是摘要及結論。 市場結構的概念來自個體經濟學，是由完全競爭、寡占、完全壟斷的理論，來觀察經 濟體系中的市場是處於那一種結構狀態。由此探尋這些市場結構的決定因素，以及其 對廠商、產業、整個經濟體系的影響。第二章中除討論上述概念外，並介紹各國研究 的結果。 第三章中將利用六十五年工商普查資料及中華徵信所各年出版的最大民營企業統計， 台灣地區工商財務總分析；就第二章的概念，對台灣製造業作實證觀察。 第四章中將利用單一方程式的複迴歸模型，對六十五年製造業產業利潤率及廠商利潤 率，與市場結構的關係作橫斷面的分析。 第五章中將討論開放經濟下，進口競爭，對國外市場依存度，外人投資，（關稅）保 護等因素對國內市場結構的影響。並利用第四章的方法，對六十五年製造業產業利潤 率與市場結構的關係作進一步的探討。最後一章為結論。

現代企業的經營，在於強調利潤的最大化。成千上萬的投資大眾，以企業獲利能力來 評估經營績效與做為投資決策之依據。政府財稅機關每年課徵所得稅，亦須企業的損 益資料。此外，倆權人、供應商、銀行、徵信機構等，亦對企業損益資料，深感興趣 。 現代的會計實務，對於期間損益的衡量，向來採「交易法」，認為凈利是由已完成之 交易所引起之收人及費用配合後之差額；即由「成本與收益配合法」來取決期間的損 益。 此配合概念自從Paton & Littleton 之“公司會計準則之介紹”（1940），出版后已 經開始確立其地位，時隔四十年至今，會計人員仍奉之為主臬。本人有鑒於此，特選 本文加以研究，對此具有歷史性的“成本與收益配合原則”，重新予以評估其價值！ 全文計分八章二十六節，主要內容：第一章緒論，介紹本文之研究動機、目的、範圍 、限制、及研究方法。 第二章，期間損益取決與不確定性。介紹傳統會計所得之意義、取決與缺失，探討不 確定性狀況下，收益、費用、與損益取決過程之性質，並試圖建立一項標準，以比較 各種衡量損益的方法！ 第三章，介紹收益實現原則與收益認定，繼續經營假設下，損益之衡量。並探討實現 原則修正的可行性。 第四章，探討成本與收益配合原則，涉及配合方法、成本分攤。並就配合原則在所得 稅衡量上之應用，分析之！ 第五章，探討在實現原則下，可能發生的錯誤配合。 第六章，介紹現時價值會計與配合原則。 第七章，對傳統的實現原則與配合原則，予以重新評價！ 第八章，將論文之研究結果予以彙總說明，並提出建議！

隨著相關管理技術之發展，準確衡量個別顧客所帶來的利潤已非難事，除此之外，亦有越來越多學者發現大多數企業之利潤其實集中於少部分客戶身上，符合80/20法則，因此本研究乃以一個案銀行內部之授信顧客資料為研究樣本，結合公司內外部相關資訊，探討影響顧客授信利潤高低之因素為何，以幫助企業有效配置行銷資源，作為企業實行客戶關係管理之參考。 在研究變數方面，本研究先針對全部樣本探討顧客交易習性、本身屬性(如年數、規模、獲利能力、成長趨勢、創新程度)、銷售人員特質等對顧客利潤之影響，嗣後再將顧客依行業別與往來期間作一區隔，探討不同行業別與往來期間之顧客利潤影響因素是否相同。 本研究研究結果顯示，顧客交叉銷售數、年數、獲利能力、成長趨勢、創新程度等皆會對顧客利潤產生影響。在短期內，僅交叉銷售會對顧客造成影響，然在中長期，除了交叉銷售數外，顧客之年數、獲利能力、成長趨勢、創新程度等皆會對顧客利潤產生影響，由此可知，在短期內，個案公司所採行之交叉銷售策略係增進顧客利潤最有效之方式，然就中長期而言，仍須考量顧客本身的屬性(如年數、規模、獲利能力、成長趨勢、創新程度)與本身銷售人員之特質，因此，就長期而言，選擇正確之顧客與培育適當的銷售人員亦為增加顧客利潤之關鍵因素。然在行業別方面，非高科技業顧客之模式並不顯著，顯示非高科技業顧客利潤影響因素可能仍受其他因素影響，值得後續研究進一步探討。 / With the development of related management technology, it’s easier for business to measure the customer profitability now. In addition, there’re more and more researchers indicate that in most company the profitability are concentrated on a few customers, which is according to the 80/20 rule. Accordingly, this research combines internal and external information from one bank in Taiwan to analyze the factors that affect the loan customer profitability in that bank. The purpose of this research is try to help business allocate marketing resources effectively, and try to provide for business as a reference to implement CRM. In the respect of variables, at first this research tries to analyze the affection of customer trading style, customer attributes, sales person attributes to customer profitability, after that this research will try to analyze whether the affection factors are the same or not when customers are in different industry and have different transaction period. Finally, this research has found that customer cross-selling number, year, profitability ability, growth rate, innovation degree and sales person have affection on customer profitability. In short-term period, only customer cross-selling number will affect the customer profitability, and in long-term period, in addition to customer cross-selling number, other variables like customer year, profitability ability, growth rate, innovation degree and sales person will also affect customer profitability. It indicates that in short-term period, the cross-selling strategy adopt by the research company is the best most effective way to increase customer profitability. But in long-term, selecting the right customer and training adequate sales employers are also very important factors to increase customer profitability. When taking industry into consideration, this research has found that the variables mentioned above also have affection on the customer profitability in high technology industry, but in non-high technology industry, the statistic model is not significant and could be discuss by further researches.

本研究所稱建商包括「建設公司」以及有從事建設業之「資產股公司」。建設公司在一般人的認知裡是高獲利的產業，但其營運狀況易受到房地產景氣波動的影響，發生財務危機的比例較其他產業高；而資產股公司投入建設業被認為是挹注獲利拉高股價的題材，因此本研究探討1996-2007年建設公司利潤力績效與房地產景氣的關聯性，獲利較同業佳的建設公司類型、投資決策之差異為何，以及資產股公司從事建設業獲利與房地產景氣之關聯，使建商能根據所發佈之房地產景氣指標在投資決策上做適當之調整，也提供投資人投資建商之參考。研究結果如下： 一、前期房地產景氣越好，建設公司利潤力績效越佳，總銷與購地總額越高。 二、市場佔有率高、建設營收比＞90％的建設公司利潤力績效較佳。借殼上市、曾發生財務危機、上市公司相較於上櫃興櫃公司利潤力績效較差。產品純住宅較產品包含辦公室、廠辦的公司獲利差，但並不明顯。此外，推案區位並非影響建設公司獲利之因素。 三、獲利較佳的建設公司較能夠敏銳掌握房地產景氣趨勢推案，並在景氣較差時敢於持續購地，景氣好時也積極購地。 四、資產股公司多數個案選擇在房地產景氣燈號綠燈時推出，銷售情形佳，貢獻獲利良好。大型商業開發案開發、獲利情形與房地產景氣的關係可能不如一般建案密切。近期開發案除了住宅建案，還有辦公、商場、商務住宅等商業不動產，長期租金收益的開發概念增加，較早期開發多元化。 / The real estate developers in this study included “construction companies” and the “property stock companies” which operate construction businesses. Construction companies are commonly known as a high-return industry by the general public, but their operations are easily affected by real estate cycle and their chances of financial crisis are higher than other industries. It is considered a sure bet for pushing up the share prices when property stock companies participated in the construction industry. This study analyzed the relationship between the profit performances of construction companies and the real estate cycle, the types of relatively high profitability construction companies in the industry, the differences in investment strategies and the relationship between property stock companies’ gain of profits from construction business and the real estate cycle in 1996-2007. This is to enable real estate developers to make appropriate strategic adjustment on their investment according to the announced real estate cycle indicators, and to serve as a reference for the investors on investing in construction companies. The results of the study are as follows: 1.The better the real estate cycle in the previous year, the better the profit performance of construction companies, with higher total sales and total land-purchase amount. 2.The construction companies with higher market share and construction-revenue ratios higher than 90% have better profit performances. The profit performances of backdoor listed companies, companies with previous financial crisis and TSE listed companies are not as good as OTC and emerging-market listed companies. Companies providing purely residential products have poorer profit performances than those providing offices and factory space alongside with residential products, but the difference is insignificant. Apart from that, project location does not affect the profitability of the construction companies. 3.Construction companies with better profits can get hold of the real estate cycle in a relatively fast way. They also can continue to buy land when the real estate cycle is depressing and to actively buy land when the real estate cycle is good. 4.Most projects of property stock companies were released when the real estate cycle signal turned green. Good sales contributed to good profitability. The relationship between large commercial development project profitability and the real estate cycle might not be as close as general construction projects. Apart from residential projects, recent development projects also include commercial real estates such as offices, shopping malls, residential-commercial buildings, etc. The development concept of long-term rental return is more popular and it has more variety than the initial period.

本文旨在探討台灣產物保險業在併購活動後市場結構之變化與產物保險公司經營之績效。本研究以赫芬德指數(Herfindahl Index)來衡量市場集中度之變化，以核保利潤(Underwriting Profit)作為經營績效指標，並採用Mason(1939)、Bain(1956)與Scherer(1970)等人提出的結構行為績效假說(Structure-conduct-performance Hypothesis)以及Rhoades(1985)提出的相對市場力量假說(Relative Market Power Hypothesis)進行市場結構與經營績效間關聯性的分析，研究期間為2000年至2006年。結構行為績效假說提出廠商的獲利主要取決於市場結構，市場集中度與廠商獲利之間存在正向關係；另一方面，相對市場力量假說主張廠商獲利與市場集中度無關，與市場佔有率呈現正向關係。 研究發現：(1)產物保險市場集中度呈現上升趨勢，市場集中度從2000年的0.0800上升至2006年的0.0913，其中保證保險、火災保險、汽車保險、工程保險、責任保險與貨物運輸保險之集中度呈現上升趨勢，而傷害保險、其他財產保險、漁船保險、船體保險與航空保險之集中度呈現下降趨勢；(2)實證結果支持結構行為績效假說，市場集中度與產物保險公司核保利潤呈現顯著正向關係，其p值為0.004。產物保險業經歷併購活動後造成市場集中度上升，併購活動對於經營績效的改善應有正面助益。 / This thesis analyzes concentration effects of merger and acquisition measured by Herfindahl index in Taiwan property-liability insurance industry. The relationships between market structure and underwriting performance are also analyzed for the time period 2000 to 2006 by testing two hypotheses: structure-conduct-performance (SCP) hypothesis which developed by Mason (1939), Bain (1956), and Scherer (1970) and relative market power (RMP) hypothesis which proposed by Rhoades (1985). The SCP hypothesis proposed that concentration is positively related to performance while the RMP hypothesis asserts that market share is positively related to performance. Implications of study results are: (1) Concentration level experiences increase from 0.0800 in 2000 to 0.0913 in 2006. Bonding & credit, fire, automobile, engineering, liability and marine cargo insurances trends to increase in concentration over the time period, whereas accident, fishing vessel, others, marine hull and aviation insurances trends to decrease; (2) The SCP hypothesis is supported. Concentration level is positively related to underwriting performance with p-value of 0.004. Higher concentration level and positive concentration-performance relationship infer that merger and acquisition activities would have positive effects upon firm performance.

於日益嚴峻之企業營運環境下，企業內屬輔助性質之服務部門角色功能便顯得日益重要。然服務部門於企業內多歸類於費用中心，多屬被動提供服務之性質，往往較缺乏創造收入與協助組織策略達成之思維。 虛擬利潤中心概念為將非屬利潤中心特質之單位，採利潤中心之管理與績效衡量概念，以發揮激勵部門提升自身價值的效果。 個案公司於實施平衡計分卡架構下，於服務部門導入虛擬利潤中心制度。本研究採個案研究方式，針對制度導入時，管理控制系統所扮演的角色功能進行研究，並探討服務部門實施虛擬利潤中心制度過程可能產生之問題、特質與效益。 本研究發現，服務部門導入虛擬利潤中心制度時，以提供「資訊回饋之溝通與激勵」最為重要。此制度增加了員工顧客導向之思維，並提升其收入創造與成本之認知。然服務部門之性質差異，會影響虛擬利潤中心制度之導入。 / As the operating environment for businesses is becoming harsher, the role and functions of businesses’ shared service unit, which provide assistance for businesses, are appearing to be more and more important. However, internal service sector of businesses are often cost centers, which mostly provide services passively and lack the cogitation about making profit for the businesses and assisting the businesses’ strategies to be successfully practiced. The concept of pseudo-profit center is to manage non-profit center by adopting profit center’s way of management and its concept of performance measure for the purpose of inspiring each sector to promote its own value. The company in the case manages its shared service unit by introducing the system of pseudo-profit center under the scheme of balanced scorecard. The thesis is a case study about the function of the management control system during the course of introducing the pseudo-profit center system. Furthermore, the thesis also discusses the special features, the benefit, and the problems that might happen during the course of introduction. The study reveals that when introducing the system of pseudo-profit center into the shared service unit, the most important factor is the supply and the feedback of information. The system triggers the employees to be customer-oriented and to be more aware of making profit and saving cost. However, the different nature of the shared service unit affects the introduction of pseudo-profit center system.

企業內勞資雙方所扮演的角色屬於社會夥伴的形式，此種社會夥伴關係的發展，牽涉到整體經濟發展的成果分配形式；然而社會經濟的發展不應僅以工資及盈餘作為分配企業經濟成果的唯一管道，加上我國近年來貧富差距不斷的擴大，政府應當盡可能擴大勞動者的儲蓄，直接參與生產資本的投入，分享企業的經營成果，以創造更多的社會財富分配管道。 所謂勞工財務參與乃勞工參與企業經營成果之形式，不論是以利潤分享或是股票持有的形式，均得以自歐盟過去十五年的議程之間所見。因此，本研究透過比較研究之方式，以歐盟六個成員國（包含法、德、 英、愛爾蘭、荷蘭及比利時）為研究對象，藉此分析其勞工財務參與制度及社會夥伴觀點。此外，本文歸納整理歐盟成員國實施勞工財務參與所產生之問題，並介紹其建議解決方法，作為我國參考之經驗。 最後，本研究自歐盟勞工財務參與之角度，將我國企業內勞工財務參與計劃之內容（包含年終獎金、利潤分享計劃及員工所有權計劃三種類型）作一比較後，提出相關制度缺失；透過檢視歐盟勞工財務參與之八大原則，我國於制度上缺乏平等原則，成為圖利少數管理人員之工具。因此，為有效推行我國勞工財務參與制度，本研究建議勞資政三方自以下方向著手：一、政府層面：明確定義計劃中「勞工」之範圍，董監事兼具勞工身分者應排除適用；條件式地提供稅賦誘因，以促進計畫的實施；儲蓄理財制度的健全發展，協助勞工財產之形成。二、勞工層面：加強勞工財務參與之教育宣導，增進勞工的認知；建議政府設立專責主管單位監督勞工財務參與計畫之設立及運作，以確保計畫之公平性。三、雇主層面：促進企業實施勞工財務參與制度；實施廣泛勞工基礎的財務參與計劃，避免淪為少數高階人員自肥的工具；不應限制計劃的投資標的，分散投資風險性；並訂定實施辦法及專責機構辦理，以便於企業推行、增加勞工的參與率。

本論文主要是以實質選擇權分析法對在最適決策下供應鏈及公司的價值進行評價。內容包含兩篇文章。第一章為緒論；第二章與第三章為主文。在此兩章中 ，我們會先介紹研究動機、目的與文獻探討，接著架構模型，據以求出於最適決策下供應鏈或公司價值的封閉解後，以比較靜態分析法分析各參數對供應鏈或公司價值的影響。第四章為總結。 / 第一篇文章為對在隨機成本下供應鏈的評價。該模型是以單一供應商、單一零售商與多個消費者組成之垂直整合的二階段序列式動態供應鏈為架構，假設市場的現貨價格為動態過程，供應商和零售商每單位商品的成本為隨現貨價格變動的隨機成本。在此模型中，供應鏈的經營者以銷售量為決策，聯合利潤最大化為目標。此外，存貨設定在零售商的一方，而零售商所持有的存貨可視為擁有一個無窮期的美式買權，當存貨出清時，如同執行一個美式買權一般，以促使利潤的實現。接著我們利用比較靜態分析法就無風險利率和現貨價格報酬率的波動度對於最適決策下所求得的供應鏈價值之影響進行分析後，得到供應鏈價值會隨著無風險利率的上升而增加，亦會隨著現貨價格報酬率波動度的提高而增加。此結論和Cortazar and Schwartz(1993)以兩階段製造產品為運作模式之公司價值就無風險利率和現貨價格報酬率的波動度進行比較靜態分析後所得到的結果一致。 / 第二篇文章為對在隨機匯率下兩階段生產之公司進行評價。此文考慮Cortazar and Schwartz(1993)的模型，在產品之製造為兩階段式生產的條件下，納入隨機匯率，用實質選擇權分析法，評價以外銷專案為標的之公司價值。我們針對模型中的參數：本國的無風險利率、以外幣計價之現貨價格報酬率波動度及匯率波動度的變化對公司價值的影響進行分析後，而得到這些參數與公司價值呈現正相關的結果。此外，因動態現貨價格與隨機匯率的相關性 ，我們亦分析現貨價格和匯率的相關係數對公司價值之影響後，得到兩者正相關程度越大或是負相關程度越小時，公司價值就越大，從而體認到僅從匯率走勢的升值或貶值來判斷外銷專案價值有利與否是不夠詳盡的，還要考慮現貨價格和匯率交互影響的程度，決策者才能做出有利於外銷專案更好的決定。 / 最後，我們將此兩篇文章歸納出一些重要的結論後，接著針對本論文研究主題的未來發展方向，提出一些觀點和建議，以作一個總結。 / This text uses a real options approach to price the value of the supply chain or the company. It contains two articles . Chapter 1 is the introduction; Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 are the main text.In these chapters, we introduce the study motive and literature review, the model, the closed form of the supply chain or the company in the optimal operating policy, and then use comparative statics method to analyze the effect of some parameters that risk-free interest rate, volatility of the spot price, volatility of the exchange rate etc. Finally, we give a summary. / The first article is in Chapter 2. It is to price the optimal value of the two echelon sequential dynamic supply chain which is composed of one supplier, one retailer and many consumers. In this model, we assume that the spot price of goods is a dynamic process, the costs of the per unit goods of supplier and retailer are up to the change of the spot price, the sales volume is the decision strategy, and their aim is to maximize joint profits. In this supply chain, the value of the stocks for retailer can be regarded as a perpetual American call option. Finally, we will use comparative static to examine the effect of the volatility of the spot price and risk free rate for the optimal value of the supply chain, and we obtain the same results as Cortazar and Schwartz’s (1993) optimal value of two-stage companies. / The second article is in Chapter 3. Based on the extended the Cortazar and Schwartz (1993) model, we use the Real Options Approach to price the closed form of the value of the two-stage production for a company under stochastic exchange rate. With regard to the parameters in the model: domestic risk-free interest rate, the volatility of the foreign spot price, and the volatility of the exchange rate, we find that the domestic risk-free interest rate, volatility of the foreign spot price, and the volatility of exchange rate have positive correlated with the optimal value of the company. Moreover, due to the correlated relation between the dynamic foreign spot price and the stochastic exchange rate, we analyze the change of the coefficient of correlation between the foreign spot price and the exchange rate, and obtained the more large optimal value of the company when they are more large positive correlated or negative correlated. In other word, we need to consider the influence between the foreign spot rate and the exchange rate at the same time, and then the manager can make the optimal decision about the exporting project. / Finally, we summed up some important conclusions of Chapter 2 and Chapter 3, and then proposed some views and suggestions for the study the theme and the developing direction in the future.

對馬克思危機理論的研究至今，基本上仍舊圍繞著消費不足、生產部門比例失調與利潤率下降等三種觀點來發展。 本文認為，馬克思所指的資本主義經濟危機真正的根源，其實就是資本主義的基本矛盾，即社會生產力與生產關係的矛盾。而消費不足、比例失調與利潤率下降等等不同形式的危機，不過是這個基本矛盾在資本的生產過程與資本的流通過程彼此相互轉化過程中的發展形式與表現形式。從而它們是這個矛盾在資本的再生產過程中發展的結果，而不是原因。 因此，不論是單一因素、多因素論或綜合論，都無法窺見馬克思的危機理論的全貌。本文以為，對馬克思經濟危機理論的理解，必須從社會再生產過程即生產過程與流通過程的統一來切入。馬克思的危機理論就是要說明：社會再生產過程以資本主義的形式來進行，表現為資本積累的過程，將會因為它自身的社會生產力與生產關係的矛盾，而不斷地遭遇到困難與障礙。