冷戰結束之後，安全研究從「軍事安全」的傳統安全研究中解放出來，1990年代中期，西方學者使用「非傳統安全」一詞來擴大安全研究的範圍，「安全的威脅來源」從軍事戰略議題延伸到社會、經濟和環境議題；「安全的指涉對象」則從國家縱向擴張到地方政府、國際組織、非政府組織、社群和個人等不同層次的行為者。不同層次的行為者在不同的安全議題中有分歧的利益，保障國家層次的安全不見得就能保障其他層次的行為者安全，有時候國家甚至成為其他行為者的威脅來源。 能源安全作為安全議題，其本身也有傳統和非傳統的意涵。傳統的能源安全關注國家之間搶奪特定的資源是否可能導致衝突甚至戰爭，能源是國家衝突的根源，也是一國宰制他國的外交政策工具。非傳統的能源安全則著重在國家取得穩定的能源供給、減少依賴特定能源運輸通道以及單一進口來源之外，不同行為者的能源安全的政治社會面向、經濟面向和環境面向是否也兼顧。 在能源安全研究的脈絡下，本論文聚焦於2010年6月正式開工建設的中-緬原油和天然氣陸上跨國管線工程，探討此管線建設是否滿足了宏觀層次、中觀層次和微觀層次的行為者在不同問題領域的安全。以國家層次來說，中國政府試圖藉此陸上跨國管線確保原油運輸管道的多元化，減少麻六甲困境的威脅，麻六甲困境反映的不僅僅是能源安全，也是中國的經濟安全和政權安全；另外，管線建設也將帶動中國西南部的經濟發展，缺油少氣的雲南省將成為最大的受惠者。對於緬甸政府來說，中-緬原油和天然氣管線每年可以讓緬甸從中國取得豐厚的管道過境費、路權費、增值稅和購買天然氣的費用，緬甸政府也可從中獲得固定比例的原油和天然氣分流，中-緬能源開發合作也有助於中緬關係的發展。 跳脫國家和次國家行為者層次，中國石油天然氣公司在興建天然氣和原油管線時，是否也保障了當地社群和個人在不同領域的安全？緬甸政府派軍駐紮管線沿線保護管線不被破壞的同時，處於弱勢的個人和社群的基本權益是否在某種程度上被侵害？環境是否為一被漠視的安全指涉對象？本文將從能源安全的政治面向、社會面向、經濟面向、環境面向以及區域面向來分析並檢視這些非國家行為者的利益和安全，透過安全指涉對象的轉換來呈現管線工程的利與弊。

本文的研究目的在於觀察美國總統歐巴馬任期內的美日同盟關係之互動，並加入當前國關學界對於「同盟政治」以及東亞區域安全課題的討論。由此，在研究過程中，首先詳述美國與日本的國家安全戰略與外交立場，以及兩國之間的互動如何有效維繫彼此的同盟關係。 在具體研究步驟上，同盟內部協調能力與面臨外在情勢的同盟凝聚力是本文主要探討的的兩大重點。本文首先將美日關係中的安全、政治與經貿議題當作同盟的內部因素，檢視美日同盟之間的合作與分歧議題，以及美國總統歐巴馬與日本首相之間的互動過程，藉此評估美日同盟的協調能力；另以中國因素做為外部因素，討論中國對於美日同盟的各項影響，再以案例分析，檢視美國處理中日爭執議題的立場與實際作為，觀察美日同盟與中國之間的互動過程，藉此檢視美日同盟的凝聚力。最後部分則總結美日同盟在歐巴馬總統任期內的整體變化與效能分析。 / This research focuses on the alliance politics of the US-Japan alliance in the Obama administration. From 2009 to 2014, the Obama administration has faced five different Japanese cabinets, both the governments of the US and Japan had different perceptions regarding the alliance cohesion and coordination. These perceptions, in addition to their political, economic, and secure interactions have created multiple impacts on the US-Japan alliance. The China factor is another key issue during this research. Although China and the United States are very far from being adversaries as they were in the beginning of the Cold War era, they do engage in issues like South China Sea, East China Sea, and the global economic competition. The Obama administration is also trying to avoid the alliance security dilemma—the risk of entrapment and the cost of abandonment—with the malign China-Japan relations. Besides, this research further investigates how the US-Japan alliance has adjusted itself to the changes and challenges in the global and the East Asia regional security.

在全球性經濟自由化的潮流下，政府體認到社會環境變遷、市場競爭的重要，因此必須順應時勢所需，釋出過去長達半世紀以來掌管公營事業的所有權，以利其未來的發展與競爭。掌控國內半世紀以來的重要工業發展－石油產業，也成為政府民營化政策下的實施對象。因此，本研究以中國石油股份有限公司在民營化過程中，所遭遇到的各個不同面向之問題作為研究主軸，採用文獻探討、調查訪問與個案探討等研究方法，旨在探討民營化政策下，中油公司的民營化為何會產生延遲與阻礙的情形。 本研究首先針對中油民營化的歷程進行探討，且提出國內其他公營事業民營化的相關經驗，並檢視中油的民營化政策、資方代表立場、組織成員態度、政治力介入等四大因素與中油民營化之間的關係，以發掘阻礙中油民營化進程的真正因素。研究結果發現，政府對於中油的民營化政策目標和實際執行上存有落差、中油民營化股權結構規劃之問題、事業機構的管理者在執行民營化過程時立場之模糊、員工工作權與勞動條件未能有充分的保障、民營化過程中勞資關係所產生的轉變、以及組織外部環境中政治力介入之干擾等因素，都是造成中油民營化困境的重要關鍵。

本研究目的在探討在雙方偏好相異的媒體娛樂情境中，人際關係類型和情境因素如何影響個人的選擇以及預期娛樂感，且背後的心理機制為何。本研究規劃三個系列實驗，從不同的媒體娛樂情境（一起收看談話性節目、去電影院觀賞藝術電影）來探討進行。 本研究從人際互賴理論（Kelley et al., 2003）中的互賴困境來概念化雙方偏好相異的決策情境，並根據依附理論提出，兩人之間的關係類型可能透過關係中的依附安全感影響個人決策的利關係程度，再影響預期娛樂感。其中，利關係決策傾向透過提高彼此之間的連結感之心理機制，來影響預期娛樂感。而雙方對於「媒體娛樂內容好惡相反與否」可能調節關係類型對於個人決策利關係程度的影響，進而影響後續的預期娛樂感。 三個實驗結果發現，當雙方對於媒體娛樂內容好惡相反時，個人做出利關係程度愈高的決策，並不會產生愈高的預期娛樂感。只有在特定的條件之下，也就是當雙方對於媒體娛樂內容好惡接近時，個人做出利關係程度愈高的選擇，會因為感覺該媒體娛樂可以提高雙方的連結感，因而產生愈高的預期娛樂感。 根據上述的研究結果，本研究提出「條件利他媒體娛樂模式」，來說明人際之間的關係類型和「媒體娛樂內容好惡相反與否」之情境因素，會交互影響個人在情境中做出決策的利關係程度，並透過提高彼此之間連結感機制，來影響後續的預期娛樂感。 / This study explores how dyadic relationship types and media content influence personal selection and anticipated enjoyment in dyadic preference conflict situation, and the underlying mechanism. This study conducted a series of experiments in the laboratory to investigate the dilemma from different media entertaining scenarios. This study conceptualized the dilemma situation from Interdependence theory (Kelley et al., 2003), and using attachment theories to propose that dyadic relationship types may influence the pro-relationship level of personal decision through sense of attachment in the relationship. And the pro-relationship level of personal decision may influence subsequent anticipated enjoyment through enhancing connectedness between each other. Moreover, dyadic preference conflict may moderate the influence of relationship types on the pro-relationship level of personal decision, and subsequent anticipated enjoyment. The results revealed that when dyadic preference is conflicted, making more pro-relationship decision doesn’t produce more positive anticipated enjoyment. Only in the conditional which dyadic preference is closer, making more pro-relationship decision produces more positive anticipated enjoyment because of enhancing their connectedness. The study proposed one new model called “The Conditional Prosocial Enjoyment Model” to explain how dyadic relationship types interact with preference conflict to influence personal selection of media content, and subsequent anticipated enjoyment thought interpersonal connectedness.

近年來，在中國大陸市場有大量公司進行掛牌上市的同時，也有越來越多的公司出現債務逾期甚至是違約的情況。考慮到目前中國經濟增速放緩，處在轉型發展的複雜階段，銀行信貸等資金供應鏈需要謹慎評估企業出現財務困境的風險。但是我們發現金融機構在平常管理信貸業務的時候會盲目地看重高額利潤的回報而忽略借款者潛在的財務危機，而且投資人在進行投資分析的時候往往也會忽略企業的財務狀況而使自己遭受損失，因此從企業的財務狀況入手對其進行財務困境機率的評估有非常重大的現實意義。 本文通過對企業財務指標進行相關分析以構建公司財務困境機率評估模型。本文選取了不良貸款率最高的製造業作為研究對象，將2015年滬深兩地的124家上市製造業公司的財務資料作為訓練樣本，將2014年120家上市公司的財務資料作為檢驗樣本，將交易所特別處理公司劃分為非正常組公司，其餘為正常組。本文通過篩選得出23個財務指標作為研究變數，引入了 Logistic 模型與 SVM 模型，針對單一模型的預測結果在準確率和穩定性方面不理想的問題引入了基於 Logistic 模型、SVM 模型的組合模型，並用檢驗樣本進行了四個模型的相關實證分析，比較了四個模型之間的準確度。 對四個模型進行實證分析的結果表明：Logistic模型穩健性好、可解釋性強、建模過程簡單易操作，但分類精度略低於 SVM 模型；SVM雖然分類精度高，但缺乏可解釋性和穩定性，且建模過程依賴專家知識和經驗；Logistic -SVM 組合模型則兼具其優點，預測精確度較單一模型均有提高，而且研究發現異態並行結構優於串型結構。通過本文建立的模型可以計算出企業的陷入財務困境的機率，有效評估企業的違約風險，進而為相關金融機構和投資者提供放款或投資的判斷依據。 / At present, more and more companies are listed in the Chinese mainland market. At the same time, more and more companies are frequently at risk of default and overdue. Given the slowdown in China's economic growth and the complex environment of transformation and development, the supply of funds such as bank loans and other capital needs to be cautious, debt default, loan overdue cases are still likely to occur one after another. However, we find that financial institutions blindly value the return of high profits while ignoring the potential financial crisis of borrowers in the normal management of credit business, it is of great significance to start with the financial status of a company to assess the probability of financial distress. This paper builds a company default probability assessment model by analyzing the financial indicators of enterprises. This paper selects the manufacturing industry with the highest NPL as the research object. Taking the financial data of 124 listed manufacturing companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen in 2015 as the training samples, using the financial data of 120 listed companies in 2014 as the test sample, Exchange special treatment companies divided into non-normal group companies, the rest for the normal group. According to the data of its 2015 financial indicators, 23 financial indicators were screened out as research variables, and a comprehensive analysis was carried out. The Logistic model and SVM model were introduced. Combined model was introduced based on the Logistic model and SVM model to solve the problem that the prediction accuracy and stability of the single model were not ideal,. Finally, empirical analysis of the four models is carried out using the sample data of listed companies in 2014, and the accuracy of the four models is compared. The results of empirical analysis of the four models show that Logistic regression model has no strict assumptions on the data, a better stability and interpretation, but the classification accuracy is slightly lower than the SVM model. The SVM model has higher classification accuracy, but the disadvantage is the lack of interpretability and stability, the modeling process depends on expert knowledge and experience. In order to balance the stability of Logistic model and the accuracy of SVM model, this paper introduces a combined model based on Logistic model and SVM model. The analysis shows that the prediction accuracy of combined model is higher than that of single model, the combination of Logistic regression model and SVM model based on Parallel structure has a higher prediction accuracy than Sequential structure. The model established in this paper can calculate the default probability of an enterprise, effectively assess companies’ risk of financial distress, and then provide the judgment basis for the relevant financial institutions and investors to lend or invest.

本研究由個人參與社區發展行動的動機與選擇決策作為研究的重心，以理性選擇行為模式為理論基礎，探討社區發展上如何才能克服集體行動的困境，建立永續性的自主治理機制。由於社區事務具有小規模共用資源（Common-Pool Resources；CPRs）的特性，在功能上及產權上無法分割，在使用上無排他性（non- exclusive）但具有某種程度的敵對性（rivalry），過度取用將產生資源耗竭的現象。因此本研究援引共用資源分析方法（Common-Pool Resources Approach）作為分析架構，從個人選擇與互動形式、外部環境與技術的變量以及組織與執行機制三方面，探討社區居民是否形成自主治理的集體行動及其影響變量。 本研究採用多重個案研究的複現方法，選取了三處遭遇特定事件觸發了社群共同議題，而由外力團隊協助建立治理組織之社區，作為實證研究之個案。包括：（1）南投縣中寮鄉的農村社區在歷經九二一大地震後，面對土地資源永續利用與產業轉型的議題；（2）桃園縣龍潭鄉百年大鎮大型住宅社區因社區組織不健全，導致社區環境出現安全問題；（3）台北縣鶯歌鎮陶瓷老街因政策獲選為形象商圈，店家面臨商圈環境管理與商圈行銷議題。 / Base on the theory of reasonable choice behavior mode, the study focus on the resident’s individual motive and decision making process trying to identify the solutions of breaking the bottlenecks of collective actions and build up the sustainable self-government mechanism. The community affairs are small scale common-pool resources CPRs) therefore we cannot clearly dive up their ownerships and functions. In the aspects of usage, the community affairs are non-exclusive but kind of rivalry. It will be decreased if being over-deprived. Thus, this study adopted the common-pool resources approach as the analytical structure to explore if the community residents have organized the collective actions of self-government and the influence variables form 3 major aspects of “individual choice vs. interactive form”, “external environment vs. technical variables” and “organization vs. enforcement mechanism ”. The study took 3 occasional events which touched off some common agenda in the community and have the residents established the organizations of governance by the assistance of external teams as the impractical cases. The three cases included: (1)The agenda faced by rural villages on the aspects of land sustainable usage and industrial transformation in Jhingliao Township of Nantou County, (2) The safety problems brought by the poor community organization of the big scale residential community—Netown in Longtan Township of Taoyuan County.(3) The marketing and business district environment management issues brought by being selected as the official model business district in the Yingge Township of Taipei County.

許多企業的經理人一直在尋求有效的政策以促進員工彼此分享知識。在組織中實施激勵知識分享的政策，因為存在著許多的個人與組織的因素，兩者相互作用會影響組織的成員知識分享的行為，政策的效果很難掌握。在實務上，不同的組織激勵的政策或手段的效果，欲通過田野調查或實驗設計來評估政策所帶來效果及對組織成員行為的影響不容易實現。因此，本研究嘗試運用一項新穎的研究策略-代理人基塑模(agent-based modeling)，經由建構一個人造的世界來模擬組織成員知識分享的行為。在這個人造的社會中，研究者考慮了知識分享的報酬、組織成員的行為策略、行為策略的學習與適應機制、不同組織的群體能力水準、互動的網路、知識的選擇模式與不同的組織激勵政策設計等變數，藉以設計相關的實驗。模擬的結果產生了的幾項有趣的發現： (1) 當分享知識的報酬愈高時，代理人知識分享行為會愈多，無論是在那一種的互動網路、群體能力或分享知識的選擇模式的情況之下。(2) 代理人的互動網路是一項重要影響因素，互動網路扮演著知識流通與行為策略學習的管道，它同時會影響個體知識分享的報酬與行為策略的學習。它可能促成不分享的策略的擴散，可能會提升組織激勵的效果，也可能會增強激勵所帶來的副作用。(3) 個體的知識分享與吸收的能力如果存有差異，則能力較好的代理人將會局部地吸引能力較差的互動對象採用他的策略，即使他所用的不是可以獲致最佳報酬策略。(4) 為促進組織成員分享知識，定期審視固定獎勵的作法可以導致比較好的效果，不但可以提升分享知識的行為，也使代理人比較願意採用傾向分享知識的策略，促成組織信任的氣氛。但是，在某些情況下，可能造成反效果。(5) 最後，根據實驗的結果與研究的發現，研究者建構了一個知識分享之組織行為模型，以做為後續實證研究之參考架構。 / Mangers always look for effective policies to prompt knowledge sharing between members in an organization. It is difficult to evaluate the effect of incentive policies for stimulating knowledge sharing because there are many individual and organizational factors. In practice, it is not easy to assess the effects of different incentive policies or methods by the methods of experiment or field investigation. Therefore, a novel research strategy is applied in this study, which is called agent-based modeling. An artificial world was constructed to simulate the knowledge sharing interactions between members in an organization. This study considers some parameters including the payoff of knowledge sharing, the strategies of members, the learning and adaption mechanism of strategies, collective capabilities, interactive network, the selection methods of sharing knowledge and incentive policies to design experiments in the agent-based model. The results of simulations produced some interesting findings: (1) the higher the payoff of sharing knowledge, the more the actions of sharing knowledge is in spite of any kind of interactive networks, collective capabilities, and the selection methods of sharing knowledge. (2) Interactive Network of agents is an important factor, which plays a role of channel of knowledge transition and strategy learning. It simultaneously affects the payoff of knowledge sharing and learning of strategy. It maybe results in the diffusion of strategy of not sharing knowledge, or enhances the effect and side effect brought by incentive policies. (3) Because of difference between agents’ capabilities, agents with better capabilities will locally attract the ones with worse capabilities to learn their strategies, which even are not the best. (4) To enable sharing knowledge between members in an organization, periodic reward will get better results. It does not only increase the action of sharing knowledge, but also make agents to adop the strategies trending toward sharing knowledge. Periodic reward is helpful to form a trustful organization climate. However, in some circumstances, it may get minus effects. (5) Finally, according to experimental results and research findings, an organization behavior model of knowledge sharing has been constructed for the empirical studies in the future.

“21世紀海上絲綢之路”倡議與絲綢之路經濟帶的傳輸紐帶關係，發展成為“一帶一路”倡議，為中共在2013年所提出的戰略構想。 就美國而言，由於其經濟實力受金融危機影響減弱，透過積極干涉南海爭端，可協助其順利推進亞太戰略轉向，強化本國在東亞地區的權力基礎，並制約中國勢力擴張。相對於中共來說，應有效應對美國實施重返亞太戰略可能產生的各種不利影響。 本文探討對於共同建設的“21世紀海上絲綢之路”倡議，需要沿線各國與經濟體共同努力，願景需要由政治互信不斷增強，未來發展建置議程，共同促進聯合行動方案的互聯互通。 / The initiative of “One belt, one Road” means the economic belt of Land route of Silk Road connecting Mainland China with the countries of Central Asia and the transport ties of the Maritime Silk Road connecting Mainland China with the countries of ASEAN, which has been making a strategic formulation put forward by the People's Republic of China since 2013. The impact of islands disputes between China and Philippines on the security of South China Sea, as far as the United States is concerned, with its economic strength weakened by the financial crisis, by proactively interfering with that, it helps successfully reorient its regional strategy, strengthen the U.S. power base in East Asia, and prevent China from expanding further. On the other side, to the PRC., effective strategies should be put forward to all kinds of disadvantageous influences of America's returning to the Asia-Pacific region. This article argues that jointly building the initiative of the 21st Century Maritime Silk Road is required all parties to work together, the vision needs to be built for future development by increasing political mutual trust as well as development agenda so as to jointly promote inter connectivity.

長久以來，台灣一直存在捐贈器官不足的情形，阻滯器官移植的進展。如何在現有的法令規範中，突破面臨的困境，增加器官捐贈及移植的來源？如何適切修正現有法令規範的限制，造福更多等待器官移植的患者，使其重獲生命價值與意義？是筆者一直深切期待的。台灣移植器官來源面臨的困境，包括華人社會特有的文化習俗、器官捐贈登錄制度推廣不易、指定捐贈與親屬限制等原因；其所造成的影響包括國人器官捐贈意願降低、前往中國大陸或海外尋求移植的人數大量增加、可能的違法器官買賣等。本文將逐一加以探究其原因，藉以了解制度面與實際執行面的差異。 為了進一步探討器官移植相關法規在台灣司法實務面運作的情形，本文將整理解析近年相關的民事、刑事及行政裁判。尤其，目前最新《人體器官捐贈移植條例》修正草案正在立法院審議中，本文亦將分析其重要法規內容，探討新舊法規之差異，預測立法通過後執行面之走向，並提出草案未通過前的因應作法，以及歸納分析國外類似法規，以提供未來再修法之參考。 本篇論文的主要目的，期盼藉由上開各個面向的探討與法律制度的論述，檢視器官移植的必要性與適法性，試圖提出應有的建議與策略，以供醫界、法界及相關行政主管機關參考，修正器官移植的適法性，增加合法的器官捐贈來源，以解決台灣目前所存在的器官移植困境。 / In Taiwan, the progress of organ transplants has long been deterred by the shortage of organ donations. As a surgeon, the thoughts of finding ways to increase the numbers and sources of organ transplants under the current laws, and of modifying the inappropriate restrictions of the current laws in order to benefit more patients waiting for organ transplants and hopefully new lives, have always been lingering in my mind. The dilemma of organ donation shortage comes from: Chinese traditional customs, unsuccessful promotion of the organ donation registration system, and the restrictions of laws regarding the designated organ donators and relatives. The results are: the low willingness of organ donations by the general public, the increasing numbers of patients going overseas and to China for organ transplants, illegal organ trading, etc. This paper is aimed to explore the reasons behind the current results so that we can get a better view of the differences between the current legal system and the actual implementation. In order to better understand how the current organ transplant laws are carried out by the legal authorities in Taiwan's judicial systems, this paper will examine and analyze the past civil, criminal, and executive decisions related to the organ transplantations. Currently the new amendment of the “Human Organ Transplant Bill” is still in the Legislative Yuan's review process. So this paper will analyze the detailed contents of this amended bill, discuss the differences between the original and the amended bill and the direction of the legislation execution, recommend the proper solutions before the amended bill is passed, and analyze and induce other countries' organ transplantation bills for future amending reference. The purpose of this paper is aimed to achieve the goal of proposing proper recommendations and strategies, through inspecting the necessity and legitimacy of organ transplant from various legal system discourses and amendments, to the fields of medicine, law and related government authorities regarding to the legitimacy of organ transplant and increasing the sources of the legal organ donations, in order to lessen the current Taiwan's organ donation plight.

教廷與中華民國之外交關係 （一九四二年至二○一二年）: 歷史、挑戰與前景 / Diplomatic relations between the Republic of China (ROC) and the Holy See were established in 1942. However, after a devastating civil war, the Chinese Communists gained control of Mainland China in 1949 and established the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Beijing. As a consequence, the Nationalist government of the ROC was forced to move from Nanking to Taipei, Taiwan. The Papal representative continued to remain at his post but the Communist government expelled him in 1951. In the following year, the Holy See decided to relocate its Apostolic Nunciature to Taipei and maintain its ties with the ROC. The tensions in the Strait between the two Chinese governments have put the Sino-Vatican relations to several tests. Indeed, the Vatican desires to normalize its relations with the PRC but is also confronted with two major issues imposed by Beijing which requests the direction of the Catholic Church in China and the end of the Holy See’s recognition of Taipei. It would strike a serious blow to Taipei if the Supreme government of the Catholic Church decides to break off diplomatic relations. It will also create a fragile position for Taiwan on the international diplomatic stage since the Holy See, at present, is the only European ally to officially recognize the ROC government. The relations of the Holy See with Taiwan are characterized by a mutually productive and cooperative partnership, especially in the promotion of human rights, culture, world peace and advocacy of religious freedom and alleviation of global poverty. This thesis aims to clarify the triangular situation between the Vatican, the ROC and the PRC and to show the challenges as well as the dilemmas the Holy See is confronted with in order to normalize its relations with China. First, this study explains the international status of the Holy See and its specific mission. Then, through a diachronic analysis, this thesis traces the evolution of Sino-Vatican relations to later on identify the difficulties the Holy See has to face across the Taiwan Strait. Then, it will analyze the efforts of Pope Benedict XVI to initiate a rapprochement with China and all the issues that have to be solved before negotiating any diplomatic ties. Based on this analysis, this thesis will show that the PRC and the Holy See are still at a stalemate and that the Vatican won’t move its Nunciature from Taipei in the foreseeable future.