沙氏法是美國在經歷一連串包括安隆、世界通訊等知名企業在內的財報不實醜聞後，為重建投資大眾對公開發行公司財報及美國證券市場的信心，迅速於2002年7月30日頒佈之一項企業革新法。綜觀其中66項條款，引發最多爭議、且對所有公司影響最大的首推404條款。該條款要求管理階層與簽證會計師評估公司與財務報導有關之內部控制制度其有效性，而爭議的重點主要在其實施方式和高遵循成本。 本研究透過個案研究，以深度訪談與問卷調查的方式，瞭解個案公司為遵循沙氏法404條款而推動之專案其組織架構與施行程序，同時蒐集公司主管及員工之意見，以分析實施效益並提出建議。 研究發現，33.34%的受訪者認同公司遵循沙氏法404條款所獲得的效益大於成本，17.34%反對，49.33%持中性看法。受訪者除認為實施沙氏法專案有助於強化同仁的風險意識、引導公司重新檢視與財務報導有關之內部控制制度，並將作業程序標準化、提升內控品質與財報可信度、遵循集團政策外，同時認為沙氏法專案有改善的空間，尤其在整合公司現有的風險控管機制、簡化測試流程及對測試文件的要求等方面。 誠如個案公司財務長所重視的“塑造企業文化”，沙氏法404條款強調的是“由上到下、以風險為基礎”，因此，樹立正確的在上位者之語調與表態極為重要，尤其是董事會、執行長和財務長，必須全力支持，建構具成本效益且符合沙氏法404條款的測試架構，以評估與財務報導有關之內部控制，進而確保財務報導之可靠性。 / After a whole series of financial scandals, such as Enron and WorldCom frauds, the US government swiftly declared the Corporate Reform Law on July 30, 2002, i.e. the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 (“SOX”), aiming to restore investors’ confidence in financial statements of the public companies and the US security market, as well. Among 66 sections in total in SOX, the most contentious aspect, which has also made significant impacts on companies, is Section 404 (“SOX 404”) requiring management and the external auditors to assess the effectiveness of Internal Control over Financial Reporting (“ICFR”). The key point of contention is its stringent implementation and high compliance cost. In-depth interview and questionnaire survey methods were adopted in this case study to explore how the researched company (“the Company”) implemented its project in response to SOX 404 and then to have a detailed analysis based upon the answers and comments obtained from the interviewees and the questionnaire respondents. Suggestions are made at the end of the study. The study finds that 33.34% of the respondents agreed with the view that compliance with SOX 404 generates greater benefit than cost to the Company, while 17.34% were against it, and 49.33% remained neutral. Despite the fact that abiding by SOX may enhance the employees’ risk awareness, guide the company to reexamine its ICFR, add more credibility of financial reports, and conform to Group policy etc., both the interviewees and the respondents consider that there is room for improvement as far as SOX 404 project is concerned. For example, a full integration of the existing risk management mechanisms and also a great simplification of testing procedures and documentation requirements. Just as the CFO of the Company highlights the importance of molding enterprise culture, SOX 404 is also top-down, risk-based oriented. As a result, it is essential to set the right tone at the top. The Board of Directors, CEO, and CFO must give their full support for building a testing framework, which is cost-effective and keeps to SOX 404. By doing so, ICFR can be accurately assessed, and the reliability of financial reports can be virtually assured.

政府為雇主之公務人員退休撫卹計劃，依據現行退撫法規設立公務人員退休撫卹基金管理委員會及監理委員會負責業務執行，屬於雇主〈即政府〉責任之退休基金提撥政策依法由公務人員退休撫卹基金管理委員會釐定，定期依照精算評估報告規劃年度提撥率與基金負債，由於公務人員退休撫卹制度之健全與否攸關國家行政效能，依歐美先進國家之作法，均依據精算原理擬定合適之退休金提撥原則，並將財務資訊透過政府單位之財務報導予以認列與揭露，本研究鑑於公務人員退休撫卹計劃之特殊性與重要性，以美國政府會計準則第27號公報為參考依據，探討政府採用退休金提撥原則之合理性，如何正確揭露於相關之財務報導，適度認列公務人員退休基金之負債，同時清楚呈現基金之提撥歷程，建立完整之精算揭露準則與方法。 第一章 緒論 第一節 研究動機和目的 第二節 研究範圍和限制 第三節 研究架構和內容 第二章 公務人員退休撫卹計劃 第一節 退休撫卹計劃的類型 第二節 公務人員退休撫卹計劃之角色 第三章 退休基金之提撥原則 第一節 前言 第二節 確立提撥所依據的精算負債 第三節 確立基金提撥的方法與目標 第四節 建立財務分析模式 第五節 確定目標成本提撥的穩定度 第六節 檢驗基金提撥是否符合法律與會計規範 第四章 公務人員退休撫卹計劃之財務報導 第一節 不同退撫計劃財務報導之差異 第二節 我國公務人員退撫計劃之種類 第三節 公務人員退撫計劃財務報導之基本概念 第四節 公務人員退撫計劃資訊之揭露 第五章 結論與建議 第一節 結論 第二節 建議 第三節 後續研究之建議 附錄一 名詞解釋 附錄二 各種精算成本法之數學公式及說明 附錄三 公務人員退撫計劃退休金相關精算資訊財務報導之範例說明 附錄四 中華民國精算學會「退休辦法一般公認精算評估準則」 附錄五 財務會計準則公報第十八號精算評估中針對具有共同性精算假設所應採用之基礎 參考書目 / According to enact public employees pension regulations, the Taiwan public employee management board and supervisory board was established to perform the administration for the government employees pension plan. The management board is required by law to set up the funding policy and disclose the plan liabilities to the plan members annually. Since the financial soundness and compensation suitability of the pension scheme is directly related to the government productivity and competency, the funding schedule need to be guided carefully based on the sounded actuarial principle. In this study, statement No.27 of the government standard accounting board (GASB) employed in United States is examined to investigate the substantive funding policy and financial reporting. The financial reporting of the funding schedule for the public and the accrued liabilities disclosed in the balance sheet of the pevsion fund are also scrutinized. Finally explicit requirements for actuarial reporting and general actuarial principle for government employees pension plan are proposed.

在電子商務的環境中，透過資訊科技的使用與通訊網路的連結，將會有愈來愈多的產品或服務需求者透過新興的電子化媒體 (如網際網路) 來尋找可行的交易互動夥伴，進而完成交易。因此，交易結構□每一份子間的互動關係，將面臨新的衝擊與挑戰。而納入電子商務觀念的供應鏈管理，將是以資訊科技與通訊技術為基礎的新領域，在此一領域中，供應鏈可以簡單地概念化成三部份：即產品/服務的供給者 (賣方)、產品/服務的需求者或是消費者 (買方)、及提供兩者溝通服務的資訊服務提供者。而在三者間，除了存在著生產與配送過程中既有的物料流/產品流、服務流及完成交易所必須的金流之外，更重要的是還有提供控制機能的資訊流。如何有效地管理與利用資訊流便成為供應鏈管理成功與否的關鍵性因素，而企業也因此產生了對於資訊服務的需求。 因此，本論文的目的在於發展出一個完整的研究體系，以針對傳統供應鏈中之供需雙方與資訊服務業之間的關係，發展出一個供需互動模式，以使電子商務環境中資訊服務的供需雙方能夠據此制定重要的決策與策略。此一體系包含了以下三個子體系：概念體系、評估體系、以及規劃體系。在概念體系的部份，本研究將透過文獻探討，針對供應鏈中的供需者 (可被視為資訊服務的需求者) 與資訊服務提供者，發展出一個整合的概念性互動模式，此一模式將解釋各個體之目標與其行為屬性，而這些目標與屬性也將成為後續評估及規劃體系發展的基礎。而後續兩個體系的發展，將以資訊服務的供需互動為研究主體。就評估體系而言，本研究將分別使用加法型 (層級分析法) 與非加法型 (模糊積分法) 方法來發展評選資訊服務提供者的多準則決策模式。而根據上述的結果，決策者便可針對其手邊現有的可選擇方案，來進行評選。一旦評選結果確定之後，決策者便可與其進行後續的供需互動。至於規劃體系的部份，則是要分析供需雙方如何根據自身的目標與資源限制，經由資訊的分享與交換，與所選取的夥伴進行互動。根據供需關係的型態及供需互動的主導者這兩個分類的標準，本研究將供需互動分成四種不同的狀況來探討。而透過模糊二階多目標規劃模式與多階段解題流程圖的應用，我們可以分析供需單位間如何透過資訊的交換以進行互動，並解釋互動所可能出現的結果，亦即失敗或成功。最後，本研究也將使用一個簡例來說明模式的可用性。 第一章 緒論…………………………………………… 1 第一節 研究動機與背景………………………… 1 第二節 研究目的………………………………… 3 第三節 研究方法與發展流程…………………… 5 第四節 論文結構與內容………………………… 6 第二章 文獻探討……………………………………… 7 第一節 電子商務………………………………… 7 壹、電子商務之定義……………………………. 7 貳、電子市場……………………………………. 12 第二節 供應鏈管理……………………………… 15 壹、供應鏈管理之定義………………………… 15 貳、關係的管理與分析………………………...… 17 參、買賣雙方之供需關係………………………... 21 肆、資訊服務提供者之中介……………………... 24 第三節 個體之目標與行為……………………… 29 壹、供應鏈管理之整體目標……………………... 29 貳、供給者 (賣方) 之立場……………………… 32 參、需求者 (買方) 之立場……………………… 35 肆、資訊服務提供者之立場…………………… 39 第三章 研究模式與方法……………………………… 49 第一節 研究模式………………………………. 49 壹、研究定位與個體定義………………………. 49 貳、供需互動模式………………………………. 51 參、研究範圍與分類架構………………………. 52 第二節 研究類型與步驟………………………… 54 第三節 評估方法論……………………………… 58 壹、因子分析……………………………………... 58 貳、加法型多準則評估…………………………. 59 參、非加法型多準則評估………………………. 61 肆、方案績效值的取得………………………… 63 第四節 規劃方法論……………………………… 70 壹、多目標規劃法…………………………… 70 貳、二階規劃法…………………………………. 73 第四章 評估面之研究 – 資訊服務提供者之評選…… 78 第一節 樣本特徵與資訊服務之使用現況……… 78 第二節 評選資訊服務提供者之準則分析……… 81 壹、評選準則之敘述統計分析………………… 81 貳、評選準則之因子分析……………………… 82 參、後續之效度驗證程序……………………… 90 第三節 多準則評估與決策體系之建立………… 93 壹、加法型多準則評估 – 層級分析法………… 93 貳、非加法型多準則評估 – 模糊積分法……… 97 參、實例說明與比較……………………………. 99 第五章 規劃面之研究 – 供需互動模式之發展…...….. 103 第一節 各種供需互動之說明…………………. 103 第二節 供需互動模式之發展………………… 106 壹、問題特性與解題流程……………………… 106 貳、互動規劃模式之建立……………………… 107 參、不同關係型態對互動過程的影響………… 113 第三節 簡例說明……………………………… 117 壹、背景說明…………………………………… 117 貳、問題求解過程說明………………………… 118 參、討論………………………………………… 125 第六章 結論與建議…………………………………… 127 第一節 結論……………………………………… 127 第二節 研究限制與困難………………………… 129 第三節 未來發展方向…………………………… 130 參考文獻………………………………………………… 131 附錄一………………………………………………………… 141 附錄二………………………………………………………… 145 附錄三………………………………………………………… 150 附錄四………………………………………………………… 153 附錄五………………………………………………………… 155 附錄六………………………………………………………… 163 附錄七………………………………………………………… 165 博士候選人簡歷……………………………………………… 172 / In the environment of Electronic Commerce (EC), there are more and more demanders of products or services looking for available interactive partners of transaction through the burgeoned electronic media (such as the Internet), who then complete transactions with the use of information technology and the connection of communication networks. Therefore, the interactive relationship between each member in the transaction structure will face new poundings and challenges. And the supply chain (SC) management, which fits into the notion of EC, will be a new field based on information technology and communication infrastructure. Within this field, the SC can be simply conceptualized into three parts: (1) Those act as the suppliers of products and services (the sellers), (2) The demanders or consumers of products and services (the buyers) and (3) the information service provider (ISP) which provides the information service for both parties. Among these three parties, in addition to the material/product flow and service flow existed in the production and distribution processes together with the financial flow required of accomplishing transactions, what is more important is the information flow that provides control function. Thus, how to effectively manage and use information flow becomes a key factor for successful SC management. As a result, the needs from enterprises for information service arise. This dissertation aims to establish a complete research system which helps develop an interactive supply-demand model for SC in EC, especially focusing on the relationship between the demanders and suppliers of information service. The research system includes three sub-systems: system of conceptualization, system of evaluation and system of planning. The system of conceptualization develops an integrated conceptual model to depict the interactive supply-demand relationship within SC. This model explains the objectives and the behavioral attributes of every individual, which then become the foundation of follow-up development of the systems of evaluation and planning. As for system of evaluation, this paper uses both additive (Analytic Hierarchy Process) and non-additive methods (Fuzzy Integral) to develop the multiple criteria decision making model for evaluating and selecting ISPs. In accordance with the results above, decision-makers are able to evaluate and select from alternatives on hand. Once the evaluation result is confirmed, decision-makers can proceed with the follow-up supply-demand interaction. As for the planning system, analysis of how supplier and demander of information service interact with each other according to their objectives and resource constraints is carried out. This dissertation also divides the supply-demand interaction into four different situations according to the type of relationship and the dominance. Through the application of fuzzy bi-level multiple objective programming (fuzzy BLMOP) technique and the multi-stage problem solving flow chart, we can analyze how the supply and demand units interact with each other by exchanging information and the possible outcomes of interactions can be explained. Finally, this dissertation illustrates the applicability of the fuzzy BLMOP model with a simple example.

有鑑於國內非營利組織財務報表未公開，資源提供者、主管機關無法透過財務報表監督管理當局是否將資源作有效的運用，亦無法判斷非營利組織營運成果良窳及持續營運的能力。因此國內亟需制訂財務會計準則以公開財務報表，遂引發本研究參考美國非營利組織一般公認會計原則之第一項動機，國內非營利組織目前無一般公認會計原則，而由各主管機關制訂會計制度，或組織自訂會計制度，甚至無任何制度，國內私立大專院校由教育部定有會計制度規範，但其實施至今尚有多項疑義，究竟與美國之規範有何不同，遂成為本研究第二項研究動機。 本研究分成兩部分，第一部份整理美國非營利組織一般公認會計原則，並介紹美國財務會計準則委員會針對非營利組織訂定四號公報—第93號、第116號、第117號及第124號。第二部份為將國內私立大專院校會計制度與美國私立大專院校會計制度所遵守之一般公認會計原則作一整理、分析與比較，以了解國內私立大專院校會計處理的現況與可能存在的問題，並透過問卷來彙整私立大專院校可能存在的問題。 由整理非營利組織一般公認會計原則可得到三項啟示：（1）非營利組織財務會計理論為制訂財務會計準則的基礎，（2）非營利組織會計原則有三項來源，第一個來源為一般會計處理，大部分與營利組織適用相同的會計處理準則，第二個來源為財務會計準則委員會針對特定會計處理制訂之會計準則，第三個來源為資產負債表、損益表與作業活動表應適用的會計原則，（3）為增進財務報表作為績效評估工具的用途，而引進服務努力成就指標的觀念。 本研究問卷對象為會計主任、會計師與教育部官員，其中會計主任發出85份，問卷回收率為37.64％，會計師發出67份，問卷回收率為34.32％，而教育部官員發出59份，問卷回收率為33.9％，因此整體回收率為35.55％。 實證結果彙總如下：（1）受試者皆贊成固定資產應平時提列折舊，（2）目前受限於學校施行細則第43條之規定，投資之會計處理無法採行成本與市價孰低法或市價法，（3）財務報表表達資訊品質三者看法不一致，（4）非營利組織亟需制定一般公認會計原則，（5）教育部應建立成本會計制度以計算學生單位成本。 根據實證結果與美國非營利組織一般公認會計原則之整理，本研究建議（1）參考美國制訂一般公認會計準則的模式訂定國內非營利組織一般公認會計原則，（2）改進財務報表表達方式，（3）私立大專院校會計相關法令合理性探討，（4）國內會計人員與資訊使用者重視非營利組織財務資訊。

國內壽險公司面臨資金不斷累積與同業間激烈競爭，加上全球經濟動盪不安，國際金融偶有黑天鵝事件發生，尤以2008年金融海嘯重創全球產業為最，壽險業亦難以倖免，肇致壽險業者經營益顯艱困。因此，為維繫公司永續經營，規劃長期財務穩健性至關重要。是故，如何訂定投資策略與妥適資產配置，並兼顧風險管理，為當前壽險公司重要課題。 本研究分析郵政壽險資產配置行為，歸納影響公司資產配置之內、外在因素，例如流動性風險、利率風險、信用風險、資本適足率、匯率風險及法令規範等因素，皆影響資產配置策略。另為建構最佳資產配置，提升獲利，逐步改善財務結構，在現行法令限制下，運用Markowitz之投資組合理論為分析工具，導出效率前緣線，再運用夏普指標績效分析，來建立最佳投資組合。 另外分析壽險公司必須正視未來「國際會計準則」（International Financial Reporting Standards, IFRS）IFRS 4第二階段適用公平價值評估負債，利差損問題會更加嚴重，對業務發展與負債評價將產生巨大衝擊。尤其我國壽險業發行商品大都以長年期終身險為主，若壽險商品負債評價與資產不一致時，其缺口將因利率變化影響損益波動。 / Abstract Domestic life insurers are in a challenging environment with increasing asset size to manage and fierce competition within the industry. Moreover, the world economy is going down a bumpy path. Every now and then in the global financial system, we encounter a black swan event. Among them, the financial tsunami of 2008 hit global industries most severely. The financial tsunami of 2008 also left life insurers having an increasingly difficult time running the business. It is crucial to have sound long-term financial plans in order to ensure business sustainability. Therefore, how to form an investment strategy, determine asset allocation and manage risks at the same time becomes a critical issue for life insurers. The research studies the asset allocation behavior of Chunghwa Post insurance sector and lists both the internal and the external factors affecting asset allocation. Factors like liquidity risk, interest rate risk, credit risk, capital adequacy, currency risk and regulations all have some influence on the asset allocation strategy. Meanwhile, the research constructs efficient frontier with Markowitz Portfolio Theory and adopts Sharpe ratio as the performance measure to build an optimal portfolio under current regulations with the goal of optimizing asset allocation, boosting profits and gradually improving the financial structure. The research also studies the tremendous impact of IFRS 4 on business development and liability valuation of life insurance companies. The implementation of IFRS 4 Phase II will require fair value measurement of liabilities, which will exacerbate the negative interest spread problem. When the liability valuation approach of insurance products is not in line with asset valuation, the gap will intensify the income fluctuations from interest rate movements, especially for domestic life insurers whose main products are long-term whole life policies.

隨著知識經濟之發展，無形資產對於企業價值之重要性因而提升。就跨國企業而言，其無形資產配置對利潤分配之影響遠遠超過有形資產之交易，故近年來無形資產已成為各國稅務機關查核跨國企業間移轉訂價之重點項目。 本研究以經濟合作暨發展組織 2013 年7 月30 日發布之「無形資產移轉訂價修訂討論稿」為根基，結合美國、中國及印度等國家之相關規範，分析我國目前對於無形資產移轉訂價規範之缺失，並以近三年來與無形資產移轉訂價相關之國內外訴訟案例為研究範疇，探討實務上徵納雙方常見爭議，進而提出個人建議，冀能做為我國無形資產移轉訂價規範修法方向及徵納實務之參考。 / The importance of intangibles for market capitalization of an enterprise has been rising with the development of knowledge economy. Distributions of intangibles have more impact on profit allocations than transactions of tangible assets for multinational enterprises. As a result, the transfer pricing of intangibles have become the focus of taxation for multinational enterprises. This study analyzes defects of the regulations of transfer pricing involving intangibles in Taiwan based on Revised Discussion Draft on Transfer Pricing Aspects of Intangibles which issued by Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) on July 30, 2013 and based on the references of the related regulations in other countries, including United States, China and India. Furthermore, the study analyzes and classifies the controversies of transfer pricing of intangibles between taxpayers and tax authorities in practice for the past three years from the court cases.

集團財務資訊的編制在企業資源規劃系統的協助下，產生的速度已較以往大為增快許多，然而，先不論相關系統的訓練、導入、維護及更新成本，目前的財務資訊仍舊需要多次的輸入、分發及反覆檢覈，這些步驟尚停在人工編製的階段。 XBRL（可延伸企業報告語言，eXtensible Business Reporting Language）的發展，使企業打破傳統財報的表單形式，它利用電腦可讀的標籤語言減少大量的傳統人力編製流程。後來更發展了財務報告的分類標準（以下簡稱XBRL FR），用來表達財務報表合計性的資訊，但這些處理過的加總數字，無法再還原為原始資料，故對於各國會計準則無法自動轉換，對於跨國公司的合併財務資訊依舊費時費力。 本研究首先依據國際會計準則委員會、臺灣、中國及美國官方所制定的XBRL FR進行分析及比較，建立一個新的XBRL FR，稱為NCCU XBRL FR，蒐集一般行業編制集團財務資訊之必要明細科目（僅包含所有流動資產和流動負債）。接者透過「對應標籤(mapping tags)」的技術，設計一邏輯規則庫，內建四種NCCU XBRL FR分別對應四地XBRL FR之「XBRL計算連結庫(XBRL Calculation Linkbase)」，即可自動轉換NCCU XBRL FR和四地XBRL FR的資訊。最後利用四地之原本XBRL FR計算連結庫，計算編製合併報表資訊前的個別報表資訊。 本研究提出多國準則探討及XBRL FR對應的方法，設計問卷並執行國內四大事務所之專家訪談，發現各國財務報表準則仍然受到會計專業的主觀判斷而分歧，未來全球財報共通的目標，還有很長的一段路要走。 / Because of the support of Enterprise Resource Planning system, business groups speed up their financial reporting preparation. Leaving aside the system cost of training, implemention, maintenance and update, its financial information still requires multiple inputs and distributions currently, and needs to repeatedly check their validity. These steps still remain at manual labor. XBRL (eXtensible Business Reporting Language) helps business to break the form of traditional financial reporting. It has machine-readable label tags, and it can reduce lots of traditional manual process. Financial Reporting Taxonomies (hereinafter referred to as XBRL FR) now are used to express the information of the total amount in financial statements. Because processed numbers can not revert to the original data, accounting principles adopted by nations around the world cannot switch amid different principles. Therefore consolidations of financial information still cost multinationals a lot of resources. In this study, based on analysis and comparison of International Accounting Standards Board, Taiwan, China and the United States official XBRL FR, we established a new XBRL FR, called NCCU XBRL FR, which is used to collect general commercial and industrial financial information (including only current assets and current liabilities). Then, we use mapping tags technology to design some logic rule database, which has four built-in XBRL Calculation Linkbases corresponding to four XBRL FRs. The logic rule database can automatically convert NCCU XBRL FR to four XBRL FRs. Ultimately, the original four XBRL FR Calculation Linkbases can compute individual financial statements before preparation of consolidated information. In this study, we proposed a method of multinational accounting standard discussion and XBRL FR mapping. We designed the questionnaire and conduct in-depth interviews to the experts of Big 4 audit firms. Then we found that there are differences in subjective judgments of multinational accounting standard. In the future, there will be a long way to go if we have the goal of common global financial reporting.

本文主要針對因安隆公司所造成的會計醜聞事件對美國資本市場及投資大眾之影響，因此為解決公司治理及重建投資人之信心，美國國會迅速通過「沙賓法案」。由於沙賓法案對在美國的公開發行公司有重大的影響，尤其是第404條管理階層對內部控制之評估影響最大，故以沙賓法案第404條來探討其對金融業的影響及執行細節。 本論文分為五個章節 第一章，緒論為研究動機、研究目的、研究架構、研究方法 第二章，沙賓法案之產生背景、目的、內容及美國會計監督委員會之成立。 第三章，主要說明沙賓法案第404條相關內部控制之要求，及金融業如何藉由COSO的內部控制架構來證明其財務報表內部控制制度(ICOFR)之有效性及自我評估之要求。 第四章，沙賓法案對金融業所造成之影響及應採取之步驟。 第五章，結論與建議

近來地理資訊系統(GIS)之資料庫受到不同領域的統計學家廣泛的研究，以期建立及分析可描述空間聚集效應及變異之模型，而描述空間相關存活資料之統計模式為公共衛生及流行病學上新興的研究議題。本文擬建立多維度半參數的貝氏階層模型，並結合空間及非空間隨機效應以描述存活資料中的空間變異。此模式將利用多變量條件自回歸(MCAR)模型以檢驗在不同地理區域中是否存有空間聚集效應。而基準風險函數之生成為分析貝氏半參數階層模型的重要步驟，本研究將利用混合Polya樹之方式生成基準風險函數。美國國家癌症研究院之「流行病監測及最終結果」(Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results, SEER)資料庫為目前美國最完整的癌症病人長期追蹤資料，包含癌症病人存活狀況、多重癌症史、居住地區及其他分析所需之個人資料。本文將自此資料庫擷取美國愛荷華州之癌症病人資料為例作實證分析，並以貝氏統計分析中常用之模型比較標準如條件預測指標(CPO)、平均對數擬邊際概似函數值(ALMPL)、離差訊息準則(DIC)分別測試其可靠度。 / The databases of Geographic Information System (GIS) have gained attention among different fields of statisticians to develop and analyze models which account for spatial clustering and variation. There is an emerging interest in modeling spatially correlated survival data in public health and epidemiologic studies. In this article, we develop Bayesian multivariate semiparametric hierarchical models to incorporate both spatially correlated and uncorrelated frailties to answer the question of spatial variation in the survival patterns, and we use multivariate conditionally autoregressive (MCAR) model to detect that whether there exists the spatial cluster across different areas. The baseline hazard function will be modeled semiparametrically using mixtures of finite Polya trees. The SEER (Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results) database from the National Cancer Institute (NCI) provides comprehensive cancer data about patient’s survival time, regional information, and others demographic information. We implement our Bayesian hierarchical spatial models on Iowa cancer data extracted from SEER database. We illustrate how to compute the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO), the average log-marginal pseudo-likelihood (ALMPL), and deviance information criterion (DIC), which are Bayesian criterions for model checking and comparison among competing models.

摘要 本研究採用賽局理論 (stag-hunt model) 來推論假設南海海上交通線 (SLOCs) 安全合作的情形．根據結果顯示，爭奪南海的國家，其解決衝突最好的策略應以合作的方式來提昇無論是在石油進口、貿易活動以及該地區船隻航行等方面的安全性。 為縮短假設情境與現實情況的差距，一方面，我們找出海上交通線安全合作之難點：主權、資源、和軍事發展；另一方面，也提出能促進其合作的正面因素：舊有的海上聯合巡邏、非傳統安全合作相關領堿、以及未來的南海行為準則 (SCS COC)。 最後我們介紹了「南海太平島提案」，試圖建立與協調新的海上聯合巡邏來降低該地區的緊張關係，建立彼此之間的信任，並改善衝突的情況。 根據本研究結論表示，我們的研究發現以及一些政策將能協助實施南海海上交通線安全的合作。 / Abstract This research applies game theory (stag-hunt model) to a hypothetical situation of cooperation on Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) protection in South China Sea (SCS). The results indicate that, in theory, the best option for all disputant countries in the issue is to cooperate in order to increase the security of their oil imports, trade, and ships crossing the region. To overcome the gap between the theoretical model and the reality, we have identified those factors that will hinder the implementation of cooperation on SLOCs protection, sovereignty, resources, and military development; as well as those that can be used to counterbalance the effect of negative ones, previous joint maritime patrols, non-traditional security cooperation, and the future South China Sea Code of Conduct (SCS COC). Finally, we have presented the South China Sea Peace Island Initiative, a proposal to coordinate and create new joint maritime patrols in the region as a mean to reduce tensions, build confidence, and improve the relationship between disputants. We conclude presenting the main findings of this research, as well as those policies that will be useful to implement cooperation on SLOCs protection in SCS.