本研究的目的在於試圖瞭解台灣產業間共移現象的產生以及利用計量分析方法（自我相關矩陣模型，VAR）檢視類股間股價變動與各相關產業景氣指標是否存在明顯的領先落後關係，並配合因果檢定(casuality test)以便瞭解類股間因果關係的原因。當市場內類股指數存在著波段現象以及各類股間有某種輪漲或是統計上領先落後關係時，本研究即針對此市場的波動現象，比較不同投資策略（追漲殺跌策略、等比重持有策略及市值比重持有策略）下的報酬，並從中提供機構投資者在市場波段行情中最佳的系統化制式投資策略。全篇的實證結果摘要於下： 　　1.由股市中類股股價指數與該產業指標之間的領先落後關係實證結果裡，本研究發現兩者之間的月資料變動率並無顯著的互動關係，除了少數產業配對檢定外，包括電線電纜業工業生產指數變動率為電線電纜業股價指數變動率的領先指標，而營建業指標（房屋申請執照面積）變動率為該產業股價指數變動率的落後指標等，其他產業配對檢定裡，均不能顯著地存在互動關係。因此投資人除了考慮基本面的產業因素外，市場訊息更是左右股價變動的原因。 　　2.類股股價指數與大盤指數趨勢的關係密切。實證結果發現研究中的十七種產業股價指數有十個與發行量加權股價指數變動率之間有互動關係存在：其中大宗物資業、電線電纜業以及營建業的產業股價指數變動率的過去資料與大盤指數變動率之間具有回饋關係，即具為同時指標；另一方面，落後大盤指數變動率表現的類股計有綜合食品業、棉紡業、毛紡業、陶瓷業、鋼鐵業、電子系統業以及運輸業等產業股價指數變動率。對投資人而言，這些結果有助於對未來股市的預期。 　　3.在關聯產業的VAR模型中，經由其誤差變異數分解後，我們發現各產業群間均有一產業股價指數為群內其他股價指數的龍頭指標類股，例如綜合食品業即為食品產業群的帶動類股。而在經過產業配對的Granger因果檢定後，則只有食品產業群內產業股價指數有彼此的互動關係外，其他產業群大多是間接影響群內其他產業股價指數變動率。 　　4.在研究期間，執行波段操作策略的結果以類股市值比重持有並配合不同程度存入借出現金的投資策略比類股等比重持有策略或積極型投資策略（追漲殺跌）的結果均佳。另一方面，透過不同的績效衡量指標結果，研究期間內以電子類股表現最好，同時三種波段操作策略的績效指標值與選時能力指標值均隨著槓桿程度的擴大而變差。

我國目前的證券市場過份偏重於股票市場，忽略了債券市場，使得市場上彌漫著投機 氧氣，養成社會大眾不勞而獲的心理，為了改正這種氣習，需要加強債券市場的發展 ，使股票市場與債券市場齊頭并進。 而我國一般民眾對債券市場并不熟悉及熱衷，為了發展債券市場及吸引投資人的注意 ，可引進一新工具，那就是可轉換公司債。所謂可轉換公司債為一公司債訂有一轉換 比率，使得可轉換公司債之擁有者可將其債券轉換成該公司的股票。 由於轉換公司債的特殊性質，同時兼顧了債券與股票的雙重特性，使得其成為證券市 場上極具吸引力的一項商品，可抓住投資人的興趣，使得投資人逐步邁進債券市場。 由於可轉換公司債的特殊性質，使得判斷其價格是否合理，較判斷股票及公司債困難 許多。因為其較一般公司債多了一轉換權利而增加了資本利得的機會，也較股票多了 一最低保值額，所以可轉換公司債的訂價方式也就顯得較復雜，而不易判斷其價值。 本文除了介紹可轉換公司債的基本性質之外，還特別著重於可轉換公司債的訂價研究 ，希望藉此研究，可得出一結論對於投資大眾及發行公司都有所助益。

自從１９７３年Bretton Woods 國際貨幣制度崩潰後，各主要工業國家均採行浮動匯 率制度，而各國的匯率水準則呈現劇烈的變動與不安定的現象，如何解釋此一匯率波 動現象。乃成為大家所郤探討的主題。 以往在探討匯率動態的決定理論時，大致可以分為商品對外貿易不均衡時所造成的匯 率動態，以及因某些政府政策或其它外生變數（如國外利率、國外物價等）變動時， 造成資產調整所引起的匯率動態，但是所有的分析均沒有將股票市場考慮進來。但在 最近一年來，我們可以發現股票市場與匯率的波動間有著相互影響的關係存在。而為 了探討此一關係，最近朱美麗、曹天旺（１９８７）將Blanohard （１９８１）的模 型擴充為開放體系，來研究貨幣政策及國外利率水準變動時，匯率與股票價格的動態 調整理論。不過，他們的分析止於物價水準固定時的情況，而本文擬進一步分析當物 價水準可以調整的情況下，股票價格與匯率的動態調整。並在此假設下，我們將分別 探討物價調整緩慢與物價調整具有伸縮性的情況下，貨幣政策、財政政策與國外利率 水準變動時所引起的股票價格與匯率的動態調整。 本文的討論共分為五章。第二章先就模型的設立做一詳細的說明。第三章則分析物價 調整緩慢的情況下，各種政策及外生變數變動時的效果及其對體系動態調整的影響。 第四章則分析物價調整具有伸縮性時，各種政策及外生變數變動時的效果及其對體系 動態調整之影響。第五章則為本文的結論。

在國內外實證文獻中，已有許多學者研究市場過度反應的現象，但由採取的研究方法不盡相同，故結論也有所差異．本研究是希望能對台灣股市的個別股票報酬率作一較完整的檢視，先瞭解股票報酬率前後期的相關情形，試圖找出一些一致性，再提出股市交易的策略，並比較策略的獲利性。 將樣本分成對稱與不對稱的形成期及檢定期，採Spearman等級相關係數法先對台灣股市同一股票的報酬率在不同期間（形成期及檢定期）的表現是否有相關作一檢視，接著檢定此相關係數時間序列是否具有隨機的特質，而後將證券交易稅及手續費納入考慮後，比較三種投資策略－買入持有輸家、中間、贏家的獲利性、風險及績效表現。 本文的實證結果：由單位風險報酬率來看，投資股市應以買入有長期的策略才會有較好的績效表現，而買入持有短期的績效是最差的。以不同的樣本期間討論台灣股市是否有價格反彈，結果並不相同。在1980年-1998年的Spearman等級相關係數多為正值，表示市場在288天以下多沒有價格反彈，且以連檢定的結果多為顯著，以Jensen α檢定之，贏家投資策略能獲得超額報酬。在1990年-1998年不論是重覆取樣、未重覆取樣，Spearman等級相關係數，多為負值，表示市場應存有價格反彈的現象，且以連檢定的結果多為顯著，但以Jensen α檢定之，輸家卻無法獲得超額報酬。可能是因為考慮了交易稅與手續費，而影響了投資策略的獲利性。 / There have been many articles discussing overreaction. Because of the difference of methods and samples, the conclusions are different. This thesis tries to make a more complete examination of Taiwan Stock Market. We divide sample period to be formation period and test period which are symmetric and asymmetric. Besides that, we adopt overlapping and nonoverlapping sampling. The sample period is 1980 January 1 to 1998 January 22. Three investment strategies are buying and holding loser portfolio、middle portfolio and winner portfolio. We use Spearman rank correlation to discuss whether the return of Taiwan Stock Market has correlation between formation period and test period. Then we adopt one of nonparameter statitics analysis－run test to examine whether the time series of Spearman rank correlation is a random walk. Following are our summaries： 1.The longer period we hold the stock,the better return we acquire. 2.In the first sample (1980 Jan 1 to 1998 Jan 22), Spearman rank correlation. is almost positive, and the hypothesis of run test is significant. We imply buying and holding the winner portfolio is the best strategy. We can prove this by using Jense α. In this case, buying and holding winner can get excess return. 3.In the second sample(1990 Nov 1 to 1998 Jan 22), Spearman rank correlaion is almost negative, and the hypothesis of run test is signficant. We imply buying and holding the loser portfolio is the best strategy. But we can not prove the by using Jense α. As we can not acqure excess return by buying and holding loser portfolio.

本文採用傅利葉轉換與小波轉換以探討非線性現象：長期相依的碎形結構與混沌現象。藉由傅利葉轉換與小波轉換兩種研究方法，所得到臺灣股票市場加權股價指數的實證結論如下：1.藉由傅利葉轉換所得到的H值為0.4632；藉由小波轉換所得到的H值為0.4750。這兩種研究方法皆顯示臺灣股票市場具有負的長期相依的碎形結構。2.藉由傅利葉轉換的研究方法，臺灣股票市場加權股價指數的頻譜由初始向下與寬的連續的頻帶所組成；臺灣股票市場加權股價指數的自我相關函數則隨著時間差距的增加而遞減。此顯示臺灣股票市場具有混沌現象。3.小波轉換可以檢測出臺灣股票市場加權股價指數的奇異之處，並且指出存有一能說明臺灣股票市場碎形結構的複雜性的機制。藉由以上的實證結論，可以得知臺灣股票市場具有反持續性的碎形結構，股票價格的變動來自於臺灣股票市場尺度上的自我相似性。即使如此，由於混沌不可預測性的本質，使得股票價格的預測似乎是不可能的。 / The Fourier transform and the wavelet transform are utilized in this research to explore the nonlinear phenomena: the fractal structure of long trem dependence and the phenomenon of chaos. 　　In terms of the two research methods of the Fourier transform and the wavelet transform, the empirical conclusions of the Taiwan stock exchange weighted stock index are derived as follows: 　　1. The $H$ value of the research method of the Fourier transform is 0.4632; the $H$ value of the research method of the wavelet transform is 0.4750. The two research methods show that the Taiwan stock market has a fractal structure of negative long term dependence. 　　2. In terms of the research method of the Fourier transform, the power spectrum of the Taiwan stock exchange weighted stock index consists of initially downward and wide continuous band of frequencies; the autocorrelation function of the Taiwan stock exchange weighted stock index decreases as the time lag increases. These observations show that there exists the phenomenon of chaos in the Taiwan stock market. 　　3. The wavelet transform can detect out the singularities of the Taiwan stock exchange weighted stock index and can point out the heirarchy that illustrates the complexity of the fractal sturcture in the Taiwan stock market. 　　By the above empirical conclusions, there exists the antipersistent fractal structure in the Taiwan stock market. The variations of stock prices result from the self-similarity of the scales of the Taiwan stock market. Even so, the prediction of stock prices seems very impossible as a result of the unpredictability of chaotic nature.

隨著國內投資環境的惡化、大陸實施經濟改革、以及政府大陸政策的開放 ，中國大陸已經成為廠商海外投資的主要地點。國內上市公司赴大陸投資 至今已三年多，投資的家數有不斷增加的現象，對上市公司而言，大陸投 資似乎已經是一個無法避免的趨勢。在國外，有關海外投資對股東財富的 影響已經不少，而國內則因為大陸投資尚在初期階段，所以目前仍無相關 的論文針對大陸投資對股東財富的影響進行研究，很自然的，將造成公司 管理當局、投資者、以及政府有關單位在決策時缺乏這方面的實證研究可 供參考，所以本研究是以這個角度來探討大陸投資對股東財富產生何種影 響，並且分析投資金額、投資型態、進入時機、經營績效、以及海外投資 經驗等五個變數對財富效果的影響。本研究以事件研究法(event study) 進行實證，實證結果發現，無論以平均異常報酬率、累積平均異常報酬率 、或符號檢定法進行統計檢定分析，結果皆顯示上市公司大陸投資的消息 經宣告以後，該公司股東所得到的是負的異常報酬，這表示公司管理當局 在進行大陸投資的決策時，很顯然的，並非站在增加股東財富的立場去考 慮，此結果與國外的研究恰好相反。在上述的五個變數中，經複迴歸分析 發現，投資金額、進入時機、以及海外投資經驗與財富效果有反向的關係 ，而投資型態則沒有很顯著的影響，不過在採用合資方式進入時，投資者 較偏好低的控股比率，最後，在經營績效方面，此變數與財富效果有顯著 的正向關係，此結果並不支持政府的開放原則，也就是從財務管理的角度 來看，經營績效愈好的公司愈適合到大陸投資。

The existence of sunspots or sunspot equilibria has been debated for several decades on its influence in the field of Economics. While models of sunspots or sunspot equilibria have fitted well for some subsets of empirical features, it comes at a cost of moving further away from economic believability and robustness. Studies on the theoretical plausibility of sunspot equilibria have been addressed extensively in several different economic models, but exist almost entirely within the framework of the homogeneous rational expectations equilibrium devised of representative agents. This framework shapes later arising learning approaches to sunspot equilibria. These models have proposed various ways of learning, but they deal mainly with the learning of representative agents. Models of adaptive learning with heterogeneous agents, however, enable us to explicitly tackle coordination issues, such as the coordination mechanism of expectations. This is certainly desirable since sunspots are often used as a coordination device of expectations. In this dissertation, we continue this line of research, investigating the plausibility of sunspot equilibria in stock markets within the framework of heterogeneous agents and the dynamic relationship between sunspot variables and stock returns. We adopt an Agent-based Computational Approach, now known as Agent-based Computational Economics or ACE, to study the plausibility of sunspot equilibria. More specifically, we deal with this issue in the context of an Agent-based Artificial Stock Market (AASM). We contemplate AASMs to be highly suitable to the issue we examine here. Currently, none of the theoretical, empirical, experimental, or simulation models of sunspot equilibria directly capture sunspots within a stock market composed of heterogeneous agents. We conducted three series of experiments to examine this issue. From the results of these three series of simulations, we observed that sunspot variables generally do not have influence on market dynamics. This indicates that sunspot variables remain largely exogenous to the system. Furthermore, we traced the evolution of agents' beliefs and examined their consistency with the observed aggregate market behavior. Additionally, this dissertation takes the advantage of and investigates the micro-macro relationship within the market. We argue that a full understanding of the dynamic linkage between sunspot variables and stock returns cannot be accomplished unless the feedback relationship between individual behaviors, at the micro view, and aggregate phenomena, at the macro view, is well understood / The existence of sunspots or sunspot equilibria has been debated for several decades on its influence in the field of Economics. While models of sunspots or sunspot equilibria have fitted well for some subsets of empirical features, it comes at a cost of moving further away from economic believability and robustness. Studies on the theoretical plausibility of sunspot equilibria have been addressed extensively in several different economic models, but exist almost entirely within the framework of the homogeneous rational expectations equilibrium devised of representative agents. This framework shapes later arising learning approaches to sunspot equilibria. These models have proposed various ways of learning, but they deal mainly with the learning of representative agents. Models of adaptive learning with heterogeneous agents, however, enable us to explicitly tackle coordination issues, such as the coordination mechanism of expectations. This is certainly desirable since sunspots are often used as a coordination device of expectations. In this dissertation, we continue this line of research, investigating the plausibility of sunspot equilibria in stock markets within the framework of heterogeneous agents and the dynamic relationship between sunspot variables and stock returns. We adopt an Agent-based Computational Approach, now known as Agent-based Computational Economics or ACE, to study the plausibility of sunspot equilibria. More specifically, we deal with this issue in the context of an Agent-based Artificial Stock Market (AASM). We contemplate AASMs to be highly suitable to the issue we examine here. Currently, none of the theoretical, empirical, experimental, or simulation models of sunspot equilibria directly capture sunspots within a stock market composed of heterogeneous agents. We conducted three series of experiments to examine this issue. From the results of these three series of simulations, we observed that sunspot variables generally do not have influence on market dynamics. This indicates that sunspot variables remain largely exogenous to the system. Furthermore, we traced the evolution of agents' beliefs and examined their consistency with the observed aggregate market behavior. Additionally, this dissertation takes the advantage of and investigates the micro-macro relationship within the market. We argue that a full understanding of the dynamic linkage between sunspot variables and stock returns cannot be accomplished unless the feedback relationship between individual behaviors, at the micro view, and aggregate phenomena, at the macro view, is well understood.

隨著兩岸三地臺商卓越的競爭能力與大中華經濟的迅速發展，海內外臺商發展為配合其長期追求成長之資金需求與其個別特定目的，尋求於最適地點上市籌資或再次籌資已是海內外臺商經營環境中極為重要之ㄧ環。有競爭力的臺商是亞洲各國極力爭取投資及招攬上市掛牌籌資的貴客，因其卓越的經營績效，敢於追求成長的努力，與勇於冒險創新發展的精神，是亞洲各國學習的對象，尤其是來自中國大陸的吸引力。 為臺商提供了一個有效率而低成本的籌資平臺，同時提供投資人一個安全而有成長率的投資平臺，不但有利企業的後續發展，亦關乎產業發展之未來競爭力。 臺商雖然可以在全球證券市場上市掛牌，但在大中華經濟圈中大陸與香港素來是臺商企業投資之重要地域，隨著CEPA簽訂生效，更加連結香港與中國內地之經貿關係，在大批中國大陸具國際規模的國有企業往香港上市，香港證券市場更呈自1997回歸後，出現欣欣向榮的景象，加之中國大陸於股權分置改革執行初具成效後，於2006年初宣佈恢復新股上市，重啟上市申請機制。受此籌資環境變化影響，吸引了大批臺商擬選擇此兩地上市。 臺灣證券市場雖仍是多數海外臺商上市之「最佳解」，在人親土親的原則下可能會對臺商企業有諸多吸引力，但因招商政策之擬定與執行受到政治因素之影響而有所偏頗，限制對中國大陸投資上限及再籌資之資金不得投資中國大陸等障礙，臺商回臺上市面臨諸多壓力，回臺之路猶似近在眼前，卻遠如天邊，其路漫漫。故尋求在中國大陸或香港上市便成為臺商上市籌資之「較適解」選項。 如何突破目前法規架構下發展對臺灣經濟與產業發展競爭力之最為有利的方式是目前政府部門努力的方向之一。惟，反向思考，是否解開對大陸投資上限40%之障礙，臺商回臺上市必可迎刃而解呢?臺商赴港上市或赴大陸掛牌就一定是致命吸引力嗎? 藉由探討兩岸三地證券市場之發展現狀與特色﹔以及將臺商企業已在大陸上市、香港上市與回臺上市之營運面與證券交易面之表現，由該已上市臺資企業期後財務效益，檢視兩岸三地證券市場籌資之關聯性問題與上市決策之選擇關鍵，及群聚現象對產業發展之影響。 藉由深入分析兩岸三地資本市場之特徵與股市表現，試圖找尋可行途徑，以對臺商企業籌資及臺灣證券市場有所建言。 當全球交易所的合併收購蔚成風氣，紐約證交所(NYSE)於2006年6月以將近100億美元併購協議，以現金加計股票收購歐洲證交所(Euronext)，首次建立橫跨大西洋兩岸的證券交易市場。惟，上市籌資具本土化特性，現今大量中資企業以H股或紅籌股到香港掛牌，而臺資企業亦經過集團分拆或組織重組到香港掛牌，均存在跨境監理之問題，而兩岸三地證券管理制度存在一定差異，若能彼此合作組成「大中華區域證券市場」─雙邊掛牌機制甚或多邊掛牌，則臺灣企業集團在兩岸三地間上市籌資、資金運籌就不會受制於相關兩岸三地間的利益衝突問題；具國際競爭能力之中資企業亦能吸納更多國際資金；香港投資銀行及金融之優勢可以更加發揮，達到三贏之局面。 政治是短暫的，產業經濟競爭能力才是長久的。從曾傲人經濟表現的亞洲四小龍，到金磚四國的崛起，產業經濟競爭不斷在演進，臺商及兩岸三地證券主管機關如何利用兩岸三地證券市場之特性與互補而整合成「大中華區域證券市場」，或許可為此區域經濟創造三贏之利益。 關鍵詞：臺商; 籌資; 投資; 初次上市;再籌資; 掛牌; 資本市場; 股票市場; / With rapid development of Greater China's economy of three places (China, Hong Kong and Taiwan) of two sides, listing in the most suitable exchange to fund-raising by IPO and SPO are quite important for the Taiwan enterprises. An efficient fund-raising platform of the low cost and safe, not only benefit Taiwan enterprises in future competitiveness, but also offer investors safe and efficient invest environment. As CEPA signs coming into force, the trading tied closely between Hong Kong and China. Furthermore, China’s reform of “equity right” is effective and reopens the IPO mechanism at the beginning of 2006. Taiwan enterprise, however, listed on Taiwan stock market has a regulation of 40% limited of equity value invest in China. Those incentives from Hong Kong and China, the limit of Taiwan stock market, have made Taiwan enterprises consider to choose these two places to be listed. In this research, we compare and contrast the characteristics among China, Hong Kong and Taiwan stock markets. Surveying the performance of business operation and dealing of the Taiwan enterprises which have listed in China or Hong Kong or come back to list on Taiwan market. Analyze and find the influence factors of the fund-raising among these three markets. Find the key points of listing decision and how the “cluster effect” influences the industry development. Although the security market of Taiwan was listed by most overseas Taiwan traders ' solve bestly ', may have a great deal of appeal to Taiwan trader's enterprises under the circumstances that people kiss the principle kissed in land , but because promote trade and investment the policy draft that biased to some extent with the influence of receiving the political factor of execution, limit the obstacle of can't invest in China's Mainland to investment upper limit and fund raising funds again of China's Mainlanding etc., the Taiwan trader goes back to the platform to list and face a great deal of pressures, the way to platform is still like near before eyes, but far like the remotest places, its way is endless. Is it is it become Taiwan trader list raise funds ' relatively right to solve ' to select to list on China's Mainland or Hong Kong to seek. How break through regulation between development and Taiwan economy and industry development competitiveness favorable way government department diligent direction at present most under the structure at present. Only, think backward whether untie 40% of the obstacles of upper limit of continent investment, is it be very easily solved that the Taiwan trader go back to the platform to list? The Taiwan trader be the deadly appeal when going to Hongkong and is listed or go to the mainland to list? By probing into the current situations of the development and characteristics of three place security markets of two sides; And has been listed on mainland Taiwan trader's enterprises , Hong Kong is listed and gone back the behavior the listing operation surface of the platform and securities trading , from should already listing Taiwan-owned enterprise financial benefit under issue, inspect two sides three place getting related question and listing choice key of decision that security market raise funds, and the influence on industry development of clustering phenomenon. Behave with the characteristic and stock market of analysing in depth three place capital markets of two sides, attempt to look for the feasible way, suggest to the fund-raising of Taiwan trader's enterprise and security market of Taiwan to some extent. Purchase and become atmosphere luxuriantly in amalgamation in the global exchange, the stock exchange of New York (NYSE ) has already decided an agreement, will add stocks and purchase the European stock exchange (Euronext ) with cash of nearly 10 billion dollars, set up and stretch over the securities trade market of the Atlantic Ocean firstly. Only, listing and raising funds has localization characteristics, a large amount of China-invested enterprises are gone to Hong Kong to list with the H-share or the red chips now, and the Taiwan-owned enterprise also passes the group and breaks or organizes and recombinates to Hong Kong and is listed , the question managed in border exists and steps but there are certain differences in three place securities management systems of two sides, if can cooperate and form ' Greater China regional security market ' each other - Listed the mechanism bilaterally even listed, then the enterprise group of Taiwan is listed on three places of two sides the fund-raising , fund and drawn up plans and would not be situated in the interests conflict question among three places of relevant two sides; The China-invested enterprise with international competitiveness can also receive more Chinese fund ; Hong Kong investment bank and advantage of the finance can give play to the situation up to three wins further . ' politics is transient, industry's economic competitive power is permanent ', Chinese helps Chinese, earns the global money with Chinese's strength of assembling, accords with Chinese's common interests of three places of two sides, regard this as the suggestions of three place securities competent authorities of two sides correctly. Key Word : Taiwan enterprises; Fund-raising; IPO; SPO; Investment: Listing; Capital market; Stock market.

本論文包括3篇時間序列方法在財務的應用。第一篇以門檻向量自我迴歸模型(threshold vector autoregression)分析股市訊息傳遞的不對稱效果；第二篇利用不對稱共整合模型(asymmetric cointegration)分析中國大陸股市之間長期均衡關係；第三篇根據追蹤資料共整合檢定(panel Cointegration test)檢定購買力平價說。 第一篇文章利用門檻向量自我迴歸模型分析Nasdaq股市對台灣、日本與韓國股市不對稱的訊息傳遞效果。實證結果發現，當Nasdaq市場處於下跌狀態時（壞消息狀態），Nasdaq市場干擾對亞洲股市的衝擊較大，反之，當Nasdaq市場處於上漲狀態時（好消息狀態）時，Nasdaq市場干擾對亞洲股市的衝擊較小，而在壞消息狀態時，Nasdaq指數大跌對Jasdaq指數與Kosdaq指數的衝擊效果大於Nasdaq指數大漲的效果，Nasdaq指數小跌所產生的衝擊與小漲所產生的效果具有對稱性。 第二篇文章以Enders and Siklos(2001)不對稱共整合模型探討，中國大陸上海及深圳A股與B股股價指數之間長期不對稱的均衡關係，實證結果發現，在1992年10月至2001年8月，上海A股指數與深圳A股指數之間具有不對稱共整合關係，且當上海A股處於好消息狀態（股市上漲）時，其誤差修正項的調整速度較壞消息狀態（股市下跌）之下為快，此外，上海A股指數與深圳A股指數之間其有雙向的連動關係。在B股開放之後，則是深圳股市A股與B股指數存在不對稱共整合關係，同時Granger因果關係檢定顯示深圳B股指數領先A股指數。 第三篇文章利用Pedroni(2001)追蹤資料共整合檢定，探討大麥克漢堡價格與CPI兩種不同的價格指數用於檢定購買力平價說的有效性，根據14個國家1992-1999年的追蹤資料得到的實證結果顯示，以名目匯率作為被解釋變數，則大麥克漢堡價格與CPI都是支持PPP假說，然而若以相對價格為被解釋變數，則只有大麥克漢堡價格是支持PPP假說，而以CPI為基礎的PPP假說則是無法得到支持。除此之外，本文的實證結論並不受生產力差異的影響。 關鍵字：門檻向量自我迴歸模型、不對稱共整合、追蹤資料共整合、股票市場、購買力平價說 / This dissertation includes three financial applications using time series methods. The first article investigates the asymmetric effects of information transmissions in stock markets using threshold vector autoregression model. The second article uses asymmetric cointegration to study the long-run equilibium relationships among Chinese stock markets. The third article uses panal cointegration to test purchasing-power parity (PPP). Firstly, we examines the asymmetric effects of information transmissions of Nasdaq stock market on Taiwan, Japan, and Korea stock markets by using a threshold vector autoregressive model. And also, we check whether Nasdaq stock market have different impacts on organized stock exchanges (including TAIEX, NIKKEI 225 Index, Korea Composite Index) and over-the-counter markets (including Taisdaq Index, Jasdaq Index, and Kosdaq Index) or not. The empirical results indicate that negative innovations in Nasdaq market (bad news regime) have large influence on Asia stock markets. Particularly, the positive innovations in Nasdaq market (good news regime) have small influence on Asia stock market. The large negative innovations in Nasdaq market have great influence than those of the large positive innovations on Jasdaq Index and Kosdaq Index in bad news regime. The second article uses Enders and Sikios's (2001) asymmetric cointegration model to investigate the long-run asymmetric equihbrium relationships. The empirical results find that there exits an asymmetric cointegrated relationship between Shanghai A share index and Shenzhen A share index for the period from October 1992 to August 2001. The adjustment parameters of error correction term at Shanghai A share market are larger in bad-news regime than those in good-news regime. This result reveals investors at Shanghai possess over-reaction behavior on news of stock market. Moreover, there exists a bi-directional Granger causality between Shanghai A share index and Shenzhen A share index. We find there exists an asymmetric cointegrated relationship between Shenzhen A share index and Shenzhen B share index after 19 February 2001. Furthermore, the Shenzhen B share index leads Shenzhen A share index after 19 February 2001. The third article uses Pedroni's (2001) panel cointegration test to examine the validity of PPP hypothesis by two different price indces, i.e. Big Mac prices and CPI. Our panel observations include 14 countries from 1992 to 1999. The empirical evidence indicates Big Mac PPP and CPI PPP is supposed if we use nominal exchange rate as the explanatory variable. Nevertheless, the Big Mac PPP is valid but CPI PPP not valid if we use price level as the explanatory variable. Moveover, our concludtion does not influenced by productivity bias. Keywords: threshold vector autoregression, asymmetric cointegration, panel cointegration, stock markets, purchasing-power parity

In this study, linear and nonlinear Granger causality tests are used to examine the dynamics, including return to return and volume to volume relationships, between warrants and their underlying stocks in Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSEC). Results of previous studies are mixed and they only focus on linear relationship between the two markets. Here we take nonlinear relationship into consideration to assist in investigating what the direction of information flow is. We use intraday five-minute high frequency data and the result tells that, overall, for both return to return and volume to volume relations, there is bidirectional but asymmetry linear causality and weak unidirectional nonlinear causality from stock to warrant market between these two markets. Combining the linear and nonlinear results we conclude that the direction of information flow is mainly from stock market to warrant market.