Dissertation declaring that The United States of America is a Fourth World Nation. It has earned this distinction as direct a result of the manner in which it was established, how it developed, and the fact that it has demonstratively failed to confront its ever-increasing disparity and unevenness. Fourth World Theory provides a foundation and framework for a critical investigation of society and culture though an analytical lens, and an examination of the inequities that are increasingly prevalent throughout a post-industrial, post-agrarian, post-developing space of inevitable decline.

Contemporary scholars seeking to increase Tuber Melanosporum truffle production rely almost exclusively on technological advancements to increase yields, while failing to place the cultivation of truffles, trufficulture, in its historical or local landscape contexts. In this dissertation, I describe how truffle scholars’ conceptualization of trufficulture and landscapes has changed over 150 years in France, while focusing on the French département of Lot. I examine changing relations between humans and nonhumans and how they impact truffle harvests. I analyzed the history of French trufficulture through a close reading of historic truffle manuals, archival research and the classification of remotely sensed images. Shifting from the past to the present, from July 2014-August 2016, I conducted semi-structured survey interviews with working truffle-growers (trufficulteurs) and participant observation at meetings of trufficulteurs, truffle hunts and truffle markets. I utilize actor-network theory (ANT) as both a theory and methodology. Actor-network theory allowed me to follow the impacts made by both humans and nonhumans on trufficulture. I found that truffle harvests in the 1880s dropped by 90%. Highly populated, intensively worked landscapes of viticulture, silvopastoralism and cereal cultivation created conditions suitable to truffles. By the 1870s the phylloxera aphid ravaged grapevines, which made trufficulture an important source of revenue. These advantageous conditions would not last. Post-WWI, yields fell for decades because of an ongoing rural population exodus and consequent agricultural abandonment, which promoted reforestation and closed canopy forests in Lot, France. By the 1960s, French trufficulteurs organized associations to share knowledge and promote local truffle markets to revive production. Trufficulteurs’ utilization of tractors, ‘inoculated’ plants and irrigation systems produced a new form of “modern” trufficulture. State subsidies helped trufficulteurs adopt “modern” practices, in hopes of increasing yields. “Modern” trufficulture has not dramatically increased yields. A few highly-capitalized trufficulteurs dominate production in Lot. Many others practice trufficulture as a hobby. Instead of relying on “modern” technological fixes, my findings suggest that trufficulteurs, farmers and states should reinvigorate extensive polyculture farming practices that maintain open canopy forests, which were beneficial to trufficulture in the past. Actor-network theory allowed me to rethink human and nonhuman relations, and to propose alternatives to “modern” trufficulture.

La desertificació és un problema de degradació de sòls de gran importància en regions àrides, semi-àrides i sub-humides, amb serioses conseqüències ambientals, socials i econòmiques com a resultat de l'impacte d'activitats humanes en combinació amb condicions físiques i medi ambientals desfavorables (UNEP, 1994).L'objectiu principal d'aquesta tesi va ser el desenvolupament d'una metodologia simple per tal de poder avaluar de forma precisa l'estat i l'evolució de la desertificació a escala local, a través de la creació d'un model anomenat sistema d'indicators de desertificació (DIS). En aquest mateix context, un dels dos objectius específics d'aquesta recerca es va centrar en l'estudi dels factors més importants de degradació de sòls a escala de parcel.la, comportant un extens treball de camp, analisi de laboratori i la corresponent interpretació i discussió dels resultats obtinguts. El segon objectiu específic es va basar en el desenvolupament i aplicació del DIS.L'àrea d'estudi seleccionada va ser la conca de la Serra de Rodes, un ambient típic Mediterràni inclòs en el Parc Natural del Cap de Creus, NE Espanya, el qual ha estat progressivament abandonat pels agricultors durant el segle passat. Actualment, els incendis forestals així com el canvi d'ús del sòl i especialment l'abandonament de terres són considerats els problemes ambientals més importants a l'àrea d'estudi (Dunjó et al., 2003).En primer lloc, es va realitzar l'estudi dels processos i causes de la degradació dels sòls a l'àrea d'interés. En base a aquest coneixement, es va dur a terme la identificació i selecció dels indicadors de desertificació més rellevants. Finalment, els indicadors de desertificació seleccionats a escala de conca, incloent l'erosió del sòl i l'escolament superficial, es van integrar en un model espaial de procés.Ja que el sòl és considerat el principal indicador dels processos d'erosió, segons la FAO/UNEP/UNESCO (1979), tant el paisatge original així com els dos escenaris d'ús del sòl desenvolupats, un centrat en el cas hipotétic del pas d'un incendi forestal, i l'altre un paisatge completament cultivat, poden ser ambients classificats sota baixa o moderada degradació. En comparació amb l'escenari original, els dos escenaris creats van revelar uns valors més elevats d'erosió i escolament superficial, i en particular l'escenari cultivat. Per tant, aquests dos hipotètic escenaris no semblen ser una alternativa sostenible vàlida als processos de degradació que es donen a l'àrea d'estudi. No obstant, un ampli ventall d'escenaris alternatius poden ser desenvolupats amb el DIS, tinguent en compte les polítiques d'especial interés per la regió de manera que puguin contribuir a determinar les conseqüències potencials de desertificació derivades d'aquestes polítiques aplicades en aquest escenari tan complexe espaialment.En conclusió, el model desenvolupat sembla ser un sistema força acurat per la identificació de riscs presents i futurs, així com per programar efectivament mesures per combatre la desertificació a escala de conca. No obstant, aquesta primera versió del model presenta varies limitacions i la necessitat de realitzar més recerca en cas de voler desenvolupar una versió futura i millor del DIS. / The aim of this research was to develop a simple methodology for precisely appraising the status and trends of desertification in a semi-arid Mediterranean catchment, through a so-called desertification indicator system (DIS).The assessment of land degradation processes at plot scale was conducted through the monitoring of runoff-erosion microplots. As a result, a set of variables such as soil erosion, soil organic matter and vegetation cover, were identified as the most important factors for soil quality in the target area, and some of these were applied as inputs in the DIS model, accounting for their relevance not only at the plot but also at catchment scale. Regarding the parameter sensitivity of the DIS model, the saturated hydraulic conductivity as well as the erodability factor were identified as the most sensitive variables, whereas the soil-b parameter and also the vegetation cover and the slope angle were revealed as those affecting soil erosion and overland flow the least. Likewise, the model showed greater sensitivity to the dry than to the normal or wet rainfall scenarios. From the results of a plot scale model validation exercise it may be concluded that the behaviour of runoff and erosion at plot scale is somewhat different to that at the landscape scale: a scaling problem. At the plot scale, soil erosion was greatly overestimated by the model in the least vegetated environments and especially under cultivated olive trees, whilst it was slightly underestimated in the most vegetated ones (e.g. dense cork trees). The same pattern was found for overland flow, although measured and modelled runoff data were in the same order of magnitude and so errors were smaller than for erosion. Nevertheless, results may be considered significant in terms of which land uses are the most and least potentially degraded and in this way, the model fulfils its objective as a desertification support tool as it identifies the patterns of change expected, if not the magnitudes. The model would need to be more complex, have better and more input data and a regional scale validation if the magnitudes were to be predicted reliably.Since soil loss is considered the main indicator of soil erosion processes, according to FAO/UNEP/UNESCO (1979), the original landscape as well as the two developed scenarios, one related to a hypothetical landscape after a wildfire and another to a completely cultivated landscape, may be classified as being under low to moderate land degradation. In comparison to the original scenario, both developed scenarios were revealed to have higher soil erosion and runoff rates, especially the cultivated scenario. Hence, these two scenarios seem not to be a sustainable alternative to land degradation processes in the study area. However, a wide range of alternative scenarios may be developed with the DIS model, based on policies of particular relevance to the region and which help to determine the potential desertification consequences of these policies in this spatially complex landscape.

This thesis explores the contributive role of architecture to the prosperity of a place. The research addresses the challenges and opportunities that rural regions face today by analyzing the general factors of marginalized rural communities through the lens of a specific community in mainland Portugal. A new approach for maintaining an authentic character, and a “sense of place” is presented which defends rural space as a genuinely experiential realm. The thesis proposes the design of a modern day treatment and research centre in the rural town of Manteigas, situated on one of the largest glacier valleys in Europe in the heart of the Serra da Estrela mountain range. Once alive with all the quaint characteristics that typify an idyllic rural identity, this town now faces a steep population decrease. Situated in the centre of the Zêzere glacial valley overlooking the town, the design accepts and interprets the natural geology of the site, harnessing the therapeutic thermal waters that continue to flow from the glacier line of the valley. The new centre represents not just a place for leisure and relaxation, but also an investigative laboratory for modern day natural healing therapies. The town of Manteigas is situated within three very distinct landscapes: a fertile landscape, a socio-cultural landscape, and a landscape of health and wellness. The design intervention responds to all these conditions and is dependent on each in its operation. This thesis is a proposal for a sustainable cycle of local and regional rejuvenation that will not be easily broken. The design proposal aims to build an infrastructure that will revive the identity of the community as a place of study and implementation of natural healing. The proposed design will also act as a catalyst to fuel future development and stimulate the local and regional economies.

Selon des thèses développées au cours des années 1990 et 2000, le développement économique constitue à la fois la source et la solution aux problèmes environnementaux. Au sujet des forêts, les transitions forestières (c’est-à-dire le passage de la déforestation à la reforestation) documentées dans certains pays développés seraient causées par des dynamiques universelles intrinsèques au développement et à la modernisation des sociétés. Nos travaux ont porté sur l’application de cette vision optimiste et controversée à l’évolution des superficies forestières en Thaïlande. S’appuyant sur une recension de la littérature, sur des données secondaires ainsi que nos travaux de terrain dans la région de Phetchabun, la thèse offre les apports suivants. Elle démontre que contrairement à l’idée répandue en Thaïlande, le ralentissement de la déforestation a été suivi par une expansion forestière substantielle entre environ 1995 et 2005. Ce regain forestier est lié à la disparition presque complète de l’expansion agricole, à l’établissement de plantations sylvicoles et, surtout, à l’abandon de terres agricoles. Cet abandon agricole découle d’abord et avant tout de la faible et incertaine rentabilité de l’agriculture dans certaines zones non irriguées. Ce phénomène s’explique, entre autres, par la dégradation des sols et par l’incapacité des agriculteurs à contrer l’impact des transformations économiques internes et externes à la Thaïlande. L’accroissement de la pression de conservation n’a pu contribuer à l’expansion forestière que dans certains contextes (projets de reforestation majeurs appuyés par l’armée, communautés divisées, terres déjà abandonnées). Sans en être une cause directe, l’intensification agricole et la croissance des secteurs non agricoles ont rendu moins pénibles la confiscation et l’abandon des terres et ont permis que de tels phénomènes surviennent sans entraîner d’importants troubles sociaux. Dans un contexte d’accroissement des prix agricoles, notamment celui du caoutchouc naturel, une partie du regain forestier aurait été perdu depuis 2005 en raison d’une ré-expansion des surfaces agricoles. Cela illustre le caractère non permanent de la transition forestière et la faiblesse des mesures de conservation lorsque les perspectives de profit sont grandes. La thèse montre que, pour être robuste, une théorie de la transition forestière doit être contingente et reconnaître que les variables macro-sociales fréquemment invoquées pour expliquer les transitions forestières (ex. : démocratisation, intensification agricole, croissance économique) peuvent aussi leur nuire. Une telle théorie doit également prendre en compte des éléments d’explication non strictement économiques et souvent négligés (menaces à la sécurité nationale, épuisement des terres perçues comme arables et libres, degré d’attachement aux terres et capacité d’adaptation et résilience des systèmes agricoles). Finalement, les écrits sur la transition forestière doivent reconnaître qu’elle a généralement impliqué des impacts sociaux et même environnementaux négatifs. Une lecture de la transition forestière plus nuancée et moins marquée par l’obsession de la seule reforestation est seule garante d’une saine gestion de l’environnement en respect avec les droits humains, la justice sociale et le développement durable. / Recent popular ideas and theories portray economic development as both a cause and a solution to environmental degradation. Concerning forest cover, many authors view forest transitions (the passage from deforestation to reforestation) as resulting from near-universal causal dynamics linked to economic development. The thesis evaluates the validity of these controversial ideas and their relevance to the Thai case. Based on an analysis of secondary literature and official data as well as extensive fieldwork in Phetchabun region, the thesis makes the following points. Contrary to the dominant view, forest cover did expand significantly between ~1995 and 2005. Forest regrowth is linked to the near-interruption of agricultural expansion, the establishment of forest plantations, and, most importantly, agricultural abandonment. The latter derives first and foremost from the declining and currently uncertain profitability of agriculture in non-irrigated zones. These agricultural problems are linked to declining soil fertility and the incapacity of some farmers to counter the impact of rapid economic changes occurring within and outside Thailand. Conservation efforts contributed to forest expansion only in some contexts (ex.: military-backed projects, divided communities, land already abandoned). Agricultural intensification and the growth of non-agricultural sectors made land confiscation and agricultural abandonment less distressing and allowed these land transformations to occur without leading to major social troubles. Since 2005, part of the forest regrowth has been lost to the rubber boom. This illustrates both the potentially non-permanent nature of the forest transition and the limited power of forest conservation in the face of major politico-economic interests. A robust forest transition theory must be contextually-bounded and recognize that forest transitions can be encouraged, blocked or countered by the same frequently invoked macro-social variables: economic growth, agricultural intensification, and democratisation. It must also take into account neglected causal factors, such as geopolitical threats, the resilience of agrarian systems, the perception of land scarcity and the degree of attachment to the land and an agrarian life. Typically, social distress, violence and, in some cases, negative environmental impacts have accompanied forest transitions. Human rights, social justice and sustainable development principles require that a more nuanced view of forest transitions be adopted.

This thesis explores the contributive role of architecture to the prosperity of a place. The research addresses the challenges and opportunities that rural regions face today by analyzing the general factors of marginalized rural communities through the lens of a specific community in mainland Portugal. A new approach for maintaining an authentic character, and a “sense of place” is presented which defends rural space as a genuinely experiential realm. The thesis proposes the design of a modern day treatment and research centre in the rural town of Manteigas, situated on one of the largest glacier valleys in Europe in the heart of the Serra da Estrela mountain range. Once alive with all the quaint characteristics that typify an idyllic rural identity, this town now faces a steep population decrease. Situated in the centre of the Zêzere glacial valley overlooking the town, the design accepts and interprets the natural geology of the site, harnessing the therapeutic thermal waters that continue to flow from the glacier line of the valley. The new centre represents not just a place for leisure and relaxation, but also an investigative laboratory for modern day natural healing therapies. The town of Manteigas is situated within three very distinct landscapes: a fertile landscape, a socio-cultural landscape, and a landscape of health and wellness. The design intervention responds to all these conditions and is dependent on each in its operation. This thesis is a proposal for a sustainable cycle of local and regional rejuvenation that will not be easily broken. The design proposal aims to build an infrastructure that will revive the identity of the community as a place of study and implementation of natural healing. The proposed design will also act as a catalyst to fuel future development and stimulate the local and regional economies.

S’interroger sur l’adoption, dans un contexte d’évolution controversée des représentations de la parenté en Tunisie, oblige à s’attarder sur l'arrière plan social, culturel et juridique dans lequel elle s'inscrit. Le discours social sur l’adoption continue à promouvoir l’idée d’une bipartition de la parenté entre une parenté biologique, « de sang » ou « naturelle » et une parenté sociale, « affective »ou encore « du cœur ». A partir de témoignages de parents adoptifs et des adoptés, nous avons essayé de relever les différentes dimensions de l’épreuve d’adoption et des relations au sein de la parenté adoptive. L’étude des différents points soulevés permet d’emblée de questionner la place de la pluriparentalité à travers les pratiques et les représentations de la filiation adoptive dans un contexte socio-politique en mouvance. Elle permet en outre de déterminer le rapport entre la généalogie et la subjectivité dans le processus de la construction identitaire. / Questioning adoption, in a context of a controversial evolution of the representations of parenthood in Tunisia, compels one to dwell upon the social, cultural and legal backgrounds where it belongs. Social discourse on adoption continues to promote the idea of a dichotomy of parenthood, divided between biological parenthood - "blood" or "natural" parenthood- and social parenthood - "emotional" or "heart-based" parenthood. Based on accounts of adoptive parents and adoptees, we tried to identify the different dimensions of the experience of adoption and of the relationships within the adoptive parenthood. In building a relationship of adoption, representations appear as a primary mediator. The study of the various points raised directly questions the role of multi parenting through the practices and representations of adoptive kinship in a socio-political movement. It also allows to determine the relationship between genealogy and subjectivity in the process of identity construction.

Submitted by Daniella Maia Gomes (daniellamaiag@gmail.com) on 2015-09-02T14:50:32Z No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_DaniellaMaiaGomes_vfinal.docx: 341003 bytes, checksum: 57bc56688ca256dba229a86c97027614 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by GILSON ROCHA MIRANDA (gilson.miranda@fgv.br) on 2015-09-22T13:29:47Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_DaniellaMaiaGomes_vfinal.docx: 341003 bytes, checksum: 57bc56688ca256dba229a86c97027614 (MD5) / Approved for entry into archive by Marcia Bacha (marcia.bacha@fgv.br) on 2015-09-28T16:43:24Z (GMT) No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_DaniellaMaiaGomes_vfinal.docx: 341003 bytes, checksum: 57bc56688ca256dba229a86c97027614 (MD5) / Made available in DSpace on 2015-09-28T16:43:37Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 Dissertação_DaniellaMaiaGomes_vfinal.docx: 341003 bytes, checksum: 57bc56688ca256dba229a86c97027614 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2015-05-29 / The iron ore market has gone through a period of stress in recent months. The slowdown of Chinese investments in infrastructure resulted in a negative outlook for the demand of this commodity. At the same time, the beginning of operations of new projects with significant production output increased the supply of this product. This scenario resulted in the decline of the iron ore prices in the global market and diminished returns to the mining industry. In this context, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the managerial flexibility available to managers of operating mining companies to suspend or close the operations depending on the iron ore prices. These decisions will be studied through the Theory of Real Options, where the switching option will be applied in the suspension and reopening situations for the mine and the abandonment option will be applied on the closing situation. The stochastic process to be followed by the iron ore prices will be the Geometric Brownian Motion, implemented through a Binomial Model as proposed by Cox, Ross and Rubinstein (1979). The result of the work proves the value of real options studied and indicates that these real options are more valuable in stress scenarios, when the iron ore price is undervalued. / O mercado de minério de ferro tem passado por um período de stress nos últimos meses. O arrefecimento dos investimentos chineses em infraestrutura resultou em perspectivas negativas para a demanda dessa commodity. Paralelamente, a entrada em operação de novos projetos com volume de produção relevante aumentou a oferta desse produto no mercado. Essa conjuntura de fatores resultou na queda do preço do minério de ferro no mercado mundial e em um cenário de retornos reduzidos para as mineradoras. Nesse contexto, o objetivo do presente estudo é avaliar a flexibilidade gerencial, disponível aos administradores de mineradoras operacionais, de suspender ou fechar o empreendimento dependendo do preço do minério de ferro. Essas decisões serão estudadas através da Teoria das Opções Reais, onde a opção de conversão será aplicada na situação de suspensão e reabertura da mina e a opção de abandono será aplicada na situação do seu fechamento. O processo estocástico a ser seguido pelo preço do minério de ferro será o Movimento Geométrico Browniano, implementado através de um Modelo Binomial conforme proposto por Cox, Ross e Rubinstein (1979). O resultado do trabalho comprova o valor das opções reais estudadas e indica que essas opções reais têm maior valor em cenários de stress, quando o preço do minério de ferro está desvalorizado.

Narrative therapy provides an opportunity for children to identify what is important to them. The aim of therapy in this research is to open up space for Nguni speaking children, who in their culture, are not allowed to express their feelings freely. The researcher has found that stories allow children an opportunity to realise that they are all human and that we have come through a process where we have to acknowledge that our existence today is largely dependent on the fact that we are not denying our stories as Nguni speaking people. From looking at the results of study, it would appear that these children have benefited from the therapy sessions. From three clients a sense of pride and self-worth was often evident at the end of a session and the overall comment made was that each one felt far better than when they had started the sessions. / Educational Studies / M. Ed. (specialisation in Guidance and Counseling)

Made available in DSpace on 2011-05-04T12:36:21Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2009 / Embora seja benigna, a leishmaniose tegumentar pode levar a quadros clínicos mais graves quando não tratada, com o acometimento das mucosas naso-buco-faríngeas e conseqüências psicológicas, sociais e econômicas sérias para esses indivíduos e suas famílias. Ressalta-se a necessidade de se buscar conhecer os fatores que levam pessoas a abandonarem o tratamento disponibilizado gratuitamente pelo Ministério da Saúde, assim como questionar sobre os possíveis fatores associados aos óbitos atribuídos a LT. Objetivo geral: analisar os fatores associados aos desfechos desfavoráveis do tratamento (abandono e óbito) por leishmaniose tegumentar na Região Sudeste, no período de 2002 a 2006. Material e método: O presente estudo é analítico de abordagem quantitativa, utilizou como fonte de dados as bases contendo os casos de leishmaniose tegumentar do Sistema de Informação de Agravos Notificáveis (SINAN).Foram incluídas as variáveis com um mínimo de 70 por cento de preenchimento. O processo de análise seguiu os seguintes passos: consolidação dos dados, descrição das variáveis, análise dos fatores associados aos desfechos desfavoráveis utilizando a regressão logística múltipla e as redes neurais artificiais e por fim a comparação entre essas duas ferramentas de análise. Resultados: Utilizando a regressão logística múltipla, foram associadas ao abandono do tratamento da leishmaniose tegumentar de acordo com a forma clínica: cutânea - deslocamento, raça negra e recidiva; mucosa - deslocamento do paciente em busca de tratamento e pacientes que moram em cidades com grandes populações, tendo sido identificada uma interação entre essas duas variáveis. Quanto aos óbitos atribuídos a LT, o modelo não se apresentou bem ajustado aos dados quando a idade acima dos 50 anos foi incluída, com isso foram associados: sexo e população pequena. A idade acima de 50 anos foi a única variável relacionada aos óbitos dos pacientes com LT que apresentaram lesões mucosas, mas o modelo não se mostrou bem ajustado. O modelo final com as Redes Neurais Artificiais adicionou as seguintes variáveis ao modelo de regressão logística: 1- abandono do tratamento da LT para aforma clínica: cutânea - municípios com população grande; mucosa - superdosagem e etnia negra. Quanto aos óbitos atribuídos a LT adicionou-se: forma cutânea - idade acima de 50 anos; forma mucosa - superdosagem, etnias indígenas e negra e escolaridade. Comparando os modelos, ambos mostram bom desempenho para praticamente todos os desfechos. Discussão e considerações finais: Os fatores encontrados para o abandono do tratamento e dos óbitos mostram nitidamente a presença das questões socioeconômicas, outras variáveis que não foram incluídas por falta de preenchimento adequado (como exemplo a ocupação dos pacientes) podem corroborar essa conclusão. Os modelos finais da regressão logística e das redes neurais mostraram bom desempenho (percentual de acerto acima de 90 por cento), variando a inclusão de algumas variáveis / indicadores. Este estudo indica a confecção de um programa (software) simples que possa ser utilizado pelas vigilâncias epidemiológicas para predizer os pacientes com maiores chances de abandonar o tratamento da LT. Os modelos para os óbitos precisam ser revistos, com a inclusão de novas variáveis na ficha de investigação e a melhoria do preenchimento. / Although usually not severe, cutaneous leishmaniasis (LT) can lead to more serious clinical pictures when it is not treated. The most common complications are mucocutaneous lesions in noses, mouth and pharynx causing serious psychological, social and economic consequences for the individuals and their families. It is necessary to study the factors that lead people to abandon the treatment, given for free Ministry of Health, as well as question about possible factors related to deaths due to LT. General Objective: analyze factors related to treatment unfavorable outcomes (abandonment and death) by cutaneous leishmaniasis on Southeast Region, from 2002 through 2006. Material and Method: The current study is a quantitative analytic approach, using data bases of cutaneous leishmaniasis from SINAN (Sistema de Informação de Agravos Notifiáveis) as data source. Cases with consistent filling of the selected variables were included. The process of analysis followed the given steps: data consolidation, variables description, analysis of the factors related to unfavorable outcomes using multiple logistic regression and artificial neural networks and finally comparison of both analytical tools. Results: Using multiple logistic regression, the clinical form was related to abandonment of cutaneous leishmaniasis treatment: cutaneous – displacement, black race and recurrence; mucosal – patient displacement searching treatment and patients living in huge population cities, with interaction been indentified between these two variables. As for the deaths assigned to LT, the model did not appear well adjusted to the data when the age above 50 years was included, therefore, were associated: gender and small population. Age was the only variable related to deaths of patients with LT that showed mucosal lesions, but the model was not significant. The final model with the Artificial Neural Networks added the following variables to the logistic regression model: 1 - abandonment of the treatment of LT for clinical forms: cutaneous - cities with large populations; mucosal - overdose and black ethnicity. As for deaths attributed to LT, added: cutaneous form - age over 50 years; mucosal form - overdose, black and indigenous ethnicity and education. Comparing the models, both show good performance for almost all outcomes. Discussion and final considerations: The factors found for the abandonment of treatment and deaths show the presence of socioeconomic issues. Other variables that were not included for lack adequate filling (for example the occupation of the patients) could corroborate for this conclusion. The final logistic regression models and neural networks showed good performance (percentage of accuracy above 90%), varying the inclusion of some variables / indicators. This study shows the preparation of a simple program (software) that can be used by the epidemiological surveillance to predict patients more likely to leave the treatment of LT. The models for the deaths need to be reviewed, with the inclusion of new variables in the research form and improvement of fulfillment.