隨著冷戰後中國經濟上的快速成長，中國權力在東亞的崛起已是不可逆轉的趨勢，在這股趨勢下，日本首當其衝的要面對中國的壓力。中日之間在東亞地區權力結構的變化，以及東亞權力結構轉移對日本國家行為的影響，又可以具體而微的從東海爭議近20年來衝突的升高來觀察。 因此，本文試圖經由中日東海爭議這一案例，來分析中國崛起與東海爭議升高之間的關聯。並以結構現實主義的兩大分支：攻/守勢現實主義作為本研究的理論架構，透過驗證指標的設計，來檢視中日在東海的立場與作為，比較符合攻勢或守勢現實主義的理論期待。 透過指標的驗證，本文的研究發現中國在東海爭議的立場與作為上，比較符合攻勢現實主義的期待，但卻仍存在部分符合守勢現實主義理論期待的作為。相對於中國，日本在東海爭議上的立場與作為更能夠符合攻勢現實主義的期待。關於海權國日本在東海爭議中展現出比陸權國中國更強烈的攻勢作為的解釋，本文認為這與爭議焦點有關，當海洋成為問題焦點時，海上力量的對比才是權力最主要的內容。儘管日本在整體權力的競逐上逐漸落在中國後面，但在當前仍然擁有不遜於中國的海洋力量，以及美日安保作為後盾的日本，自然能夠在東海爭議中展現出比中國更強烈的攻勢作為。

冷戰結束後，民族主義在世界各地呈現復興的趨勢，而從九零年代以來中國的民族主義的復興與發展，也一直是受到關注的話題與焦點，像是1997年的中共駐南斯拉夫大使館被炸事件，到現在的反日民族主義情緒高漲，這些都是民族主義情緒高漲的實際例證。但是對於民族主義，一般總是存在著許多負面的看法，因為在西方的民族主義發展歷程當中，民族主義高漲的結果將很容易的演變成極端激進形式，我們是否能將中國的民族主義輕易的套入西方的歷史情境當中，將是值得思考的問題。至於民族主義在外交中的影響力，如同惠廷(Allen S. Whiting)所言，民族主義如何影響中共外交，將取決於它國如何對待中國，也因此探討冷戰後中共對日外交政策的民族主義因素，除了分析中國民族主義興起在外交層面的作用之外，更需關注中日民族主義之間的互動趨勢，以及冷戰後中共對日外交政策的發展。本論文在分析中共對日外交政策上，關注的主要變數是民族主義發展的影響，在分析的途徑上則試圖從國際層面:如中日民族主義的互動趨勢；國內層面:如中共愛國主義的原則、官方與民間民族主義的互動；以及決策層的認知思維層面，依據多層次的分析途徑，從以上這些變數來探討冷戰後中共對日外交政策的民族主義因素，並期望藉由民族主義興起的研究，提供理解中國崛起與發展的一個觀點。

當前中國大陸的崛起意涵是什麼？隨著中國大陸崛起，當代中國研究成為顯學，學界也提出許多研究途徑，然而，對於崛起強權的本質卻因龐雜的論述而莫衷一是，缺少了系統性地檢驗崛起強權發展經驗的理論，以至於無法對變化快速的中國大陸有更具說服力的解釋。 透過回顧和評析學者，本文探索了權力轉移論與權力平衡論的爭論，以及強權興衰論和國際政治長週期論的辨析，從中提出一個具備「能力」、「意圖」、「結構」、「行為」四變項的崛起強權理論，其目的在於藉由抽取崛起強權發展歷程的核心要素，以觀察德國、美國、日本、蘇聯等歷史案例如何滿足崛起強權理論的假設。在理論的建構與案例的檢證後，以崛起強權理論為經，中國大陸從1991年後冷戰時期的發展為緯，畫出另一當代中國研究的新風貌，力求刻畫中國大陸崛起過程上較具一致邏輯的解釋輪廓。 本文共分為三大部分，第一部分為建構崛起強權理論的分析架構，能力上包括判別崛起與晉身強權的指標，崛起強權與體系第一強權在長時間上相對權力差距變化的推論；意圖上則演繹主要單元和單元的動機強弱和意涵區別，將崛起強權放在主要單元的分析上，延伸相對權力的變化如何造成認知樂觀與悲觀，進而判斷崛起強權對國際秩序的滿意與否；結構上包含闡述構成體系極數的強權必須具備的經濟力量與軍事力量的平衡，否則體系則因失衡走向變遷，並推論體系變遷所含有的結構動態觀念，引導出不同極數的體系變遷造成的國際環境的和平壓力大小；行為上則指涉認知與結構對軍事行為的強度產生的影響，分別為對外動武積極程度的用兵，以及對國際和平壓力反應的軍備。第二部分為回顧距今124年來德、美、日、蘇的崛起經驗，證實了崛起強權理論在歷史案例中的適用性，尤其在軍事行為的強度上如何反應崛起強權認知悲觀的假設。第三部分則以崛起強權理論解釋中國大陸在後冷戰的崛起過程，對其在20年間的「和平崛起」之原因提出新解，並簡要基於2011-2014年的歷史資料，預測中國大陸在短期未來上較有可能的發展路徑。 本文的研究發現主要有三個意涵，第一，重新檢視崛起強權的概念本質，提出具解釋力的分析途徑；第二，補充現實主義典範上對意圖描述的相對缺乏，彌補國家對自身發展的認知和能力變化的關聯；第三，解釋守勢現實主義與攻勢現實主義的理論差異，提出「更動國際體系」的主要單元功能。

自1978年以來，中國走上了改革開放的道路，伴隨著連年高幅度的經濟成長，國際地位大幅上升，讓中國從自19世紀以來的羸弱走向富強，「中國崛起」這個概念，已經被當前世界各國普遍接受。而正當眾人的目光置於中國崛起的同時，印度也同樣有著突出的表現。若中國是繼美國以後，下一個有能力主宰世界的強權，那印度則就是在中國之後下一個潛在的強國繼任者。做為毗鄰而居的兩個發展中國家，同時又是新崛起的大國，中、印關係受到全世界的矚目，中、印關係對於區域的發展、穩定，乃至於國際權力結構的變化而言，其重要性更是不言可喻。 長久以來，研究中、美或中、俄等大國關係的文獻可謂汗牛充棟，但對於中、印關係的探討卻沒有相稱的比例。面對美國國力的逐漸衰頹，新興的強權將逐挑戰它既有的霸權地位，而這兩個擁有廣大市場及發展潛力的國家，都剛好有著此般的潛能。在可預見的未來，中、印關係的發展趨勢，必將是重要的研究課題。 面對中國崛起所帶動的區域經貿整合與發展，印度調整了對中國的外交方略，以務實的合作取代長期不友好的競爭關係，並從政治、軍事、經貿甚至逐漸外溢至能（資）源、反恐乃至於氣候變遷等非傳統安全等領域，兩國的合作態勢趨於明朗與頻繁；而就另一方面來看，源自於雙邊互信不足以及結構性矛盾，中、印兩國即使逐步走向合作，但仍舊是競爭關係要較合作關係來的顯著，除了戰略利益上的衝突促使兩國互踏對方的門戶外，美、俄、日等大國間在東亞的競逐，使得中、印間看似的和睦更摻雜了複雜的變數。 鑒於此，本研究嘗試以中國崛起做為背景，希能歸整出中、印兩國在傳統乃至於非傳統安全領域裡，競爭與合作關係的趨勢與消長，並藉由梳理中、印間的競合態勢，預測兩國未來的關係走向。 / Since 1978, China has been on the path of reform and opening-up, accompanied by yearly significant economic growth, as well as fast rising international status. This has enabled China to shed her image as a morbid state since the nineteenth century, and stride toward wealth and prosperity. The concept, “The Rise of China”, has been widely accepted around the globe. But as all eyes are on rising China, India is also a country that has an equally outstanding performance. Supposedly China is the next power capable of dominating the world after the US, then India is the next potential power following the steps of China. China and India, as two adjacent developing countries and rising powerhouses, have the international attention riveted on their relations. It is self-evident that the relations between the two countries is highly important to regional development, regional stability, and even to the structural change of international powers. Over the long term, publications regarding Sino-American relations, and Sino-Russian relations have arguably been abundant. Yet, there is an unproportionally scarce amount of discussion of Sino-Indian relations. With US’s power on the decline, emerging powers will, one after another, challenge US’s current dominance. And the two states, both blessed with a large market and the potential for development, happen to be the potential challengers. In the foreseeable future, the development of Sino-Indian relations will undoubtedly be an important issue for study. Facing the regional economic integration and development brought forth by the rise of China, India has adjusted her diplomatic strategy to China by replacing long-term hostile vying relations with down-to-earth cooperation. The cooperation between the two countries, which has extended from politics, military, economic and trade, to non-traditional security fields such as energy / resources, counter-terrorism, and climate change, has become increasingly clear and frequent. From another aspect, owing to the lack of mutual trust and the structural conflict between the two sides, China and India, though walking toward cooperation, remain more of two competitors than two partners. Aside from territorial invasions caused by the conflict on strategic interest between China and India, the competition in East Asia between world powers such as the US, Russia, and Japan has complicated the seemingly peaceful Sino-Indian relations with uncertainties. Judging from the fact mentioned above, this study attempts to, with the rise of China as the backdrop, sort out the trend as well as the rise and fall of Sino-Indian cooperation in traditional security fields and non-traditional security fields. This study also attempts to predict China and India’s future relations by combing through the cooperation and competition between the two countries.

由於中國經濟快速的成長，綜合國力逐漸提升，更因成長趨勢顯著，不但引起世界各國的注意，並讓周邊國家及國際強權產生壓迫感，遂有「中國威脅論」的出現。自2003年下半年起，中國領導階層與主要分析家即開始提倡「和平崛起」概念為其未來數十年的戰略路線；因為中國領導人瞭解其快速提昇的全球經濟與安全事務影響力，已造成主要強權和亞洲各國的普遍憂慮後，正試圖以此概念向世界消毒。而「和平崛起」係中國研究歷史後，瞭解新力量崛起時可能產生的問題後所採行的國家戰略路線，希藉此向世界宣示其力求避免衝突的決心，本概念即係中國對「中國威脅論」的回應。 現代國家的國防安全已不是單純軍事範疇的問題，而是政府針對國家安全情勢需要，對政治、經濟、心理、軍事整體國力的統合運策施為，以確保國家安全的全面國務大政。承平時的「嚇阻」及戰爭時的「防衛」為推動國防政策的必要觀念；因此，外部的軍事威脅仍是影響各國國家安全的最主要因素。 中國積極推動軍事現代化的短期目標雖然還是在於以武力脅迫台灣，並準備可能的台海衝突，但長期而言，中國不僅有能力而且有野心去挑戰美國在亞洲區域內的霸權地位。比起美國近年超過3000億美元的軍事預算和先進的武器裝備，中國的軍力雖略顯渺小，但其增長的速度卻十分快速。自1990年代以來，中國官方的國防支出即以每年兩位數的成長率增加，中國的崛起以及伴隨而來的快速軍力擴張，已經成為影響海峽兩岸穩定與安全的最大變數。 國防建軍的理念，不在與敵人作量的競賽，而是建立一支高素質、高科技的精銳武力，以確實嚇阻敵人；因此，就現況而言，維持兩岸現況以及足夠的嚇阻力量，乃是降低兩岸動武機率的兩大要素。 / The rapid growth of China’s economy and advancement in national comprehensive power have drawn attention to the world. China’s neighboring countries and great powers are sensing the escalating pressures of “China Threat”. Since the second half of 2003, China’s leadership and analysts have initiated the concept of “Peaceful Rise” as China’s future strategy in the next few decades. China is now attempting to change the international community’s misconception toward China. The national defense is aimed to the need for the overall national security. National defense encompasses political, economical, psychological and military aspects rather than just for the military motive. To “deter” in the peace time and to “defense” in the war time are mayor concerns of national defense policy. Consequently, exterior military threat remains the top issue in each country’s national security. China’s military modernization for the short-term goal is to coerce Taiwan and prepare for any possible cross-straits confrontation. China not only has the ability but also the ambition to challenge the U.S. hegemony role in the Asia. China’s military budget is relatively small compared to the U.S. military expenses in the last few years. However, China’s military modernization is very phenomenal in the past few years. Since the 1990s, China’s official documents reveal that its military expense grows in the rate of more than 10 percent. The rising China and its rapid military expansion become the most unpredictable variables for the stability and security in the Cross-Straits region. The ideal type of building military forces is to build a high-quality and high-tech forces rather than to compete with the enemy in terms of figures. Inferring Maintaining status quo and have the forces to deter China’s military intention are two important factors to reduce the military confrontation in the Taiwan Strait.

冷戰結束後，超級大國的對抗不復存在，而呈現「一超多強」的情勢，加上「中國威脅論」的興起，綜合國力日漸提升的中共認知到國際社會（尤其是美國）大有圍堵「中國崛起」之意。為維護周邊環境的穩定，中共提出「新安全觀」作為因應，宣揚有別於冷戰安全觀的思維，並以雙邊、多邊外交政策進行實踐，強調以「和平共處五原則」與各國共處，經由協商解決衝突。 筆者擬藉由本論文之研究，檢視中共提出「新安全觀」之目的性及策略性，從中瞭解中共「新安全觀」指導下之大國外交，與美國的亞太戰略的相互影響關係，並且從911事件後，分析中共「新安全觀」指導下的對美關係的發展變化，以瞭解中共「新安全觀」下之對美關係模式。 本論文已完成幾項基礎工作：（一）詮釋中共「新安全觀」的背景、意涵及在外交上的實踐；（二）探討中共「新安全觀」視角下的美國角色，中共「新安全觀」及美國對於「中國崛起」的立場與其相應之亞太安全戰略；（三）分析911事件發生後，國際格局的轉變與美國國家安全戰略及其對中關係的調整；（四）分別就反恐議題、朝核問題、飛彈防禦系統問題、台灣議題及中美戰略經濟對話等安全議題中，分析中共在「新安全觀」思維下與美國之互動關係。 筆者認為，就上揭各層面等議題而言，中共基於「新安全觀」拓展與美國合作的雙邊關係，並藉此滿足國家利益。雖然中美兩國在大國關係、區域安全問題等方面有共識及分歧，但總的來說，是積極爭取良性互動和防止正面衝突。中美兩國抓住改善關係的歷史性機遇，強調外交合作，關注雙方的核心議題與重大利益。筆者認為，中共「新安全觀」在中美關係上已得到初步體現，但仍有許多挑戰等待克服，未來仍須以「新安全觀」理念為基礎與美國及他國促進關係發展，以維護其國家利益。 關鍵詞：新安全觀、中國崛起、911事件、中美關係、反恐合作、朝核問題、中美戰略經濟對話 / There exists no further superpower confrontation since the end of the Cold War. Nonetheless the global situation has turned out to be a realm of “one superpower and many other powers.” As the plausible China’s threat emerges, China with its rising synthesizing strength recognizes that the international community, especially the United States, is forging a strategy of “containing China.” To stabilize its adjacent environment, the PRC initiates a “New Security Concept,” proclaiming a unique security concept, to implement bilateral and multilateral diplomatic ties with other nations. China emphasizes its “Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence,” solving disputes with others by way of coordination and cooperation. In this thesis, the author reviews the purpose and strategy based on China’s “New Security Concept,” and explore “Big Power” diplomacy and the consequent effect of U.S.’s Asia-Pacific strategy. In addition, the author analyzes the evolving changes of Sino-U.S. relationship under the “New Security Concept” so as to realize China’s very motive in manipulating foreign policy. This thesis does the following fundamental research: 1. Illustrate the background, means, and diplomatic practice based on China’s “New Security Concept.” 2. Confer the U.S.’s role in China’s “New Security Concept” policy, the U.S. reaction to China’s “New Security Concept,” and U.S.’s viewpoint to the “China Rise.” 3. Analyze the shift of international strategy, the adjustment of U.S. national security strategy and the Sino-U.S. relationship after the 911 Incident. 4. On the issues like antiterrorism, North Korea’s nuclear program, missile defense system, Taiwan issue, Sino-U.S. economic talks, the author also tries to analyze the Sino-U.S. interaction within China’s mentality of “New Security Concept.” After studying the above issues, the author contends that China assures her national interest by means of “New Security Concept” and the U.S. cooperation. Though there still are concurrences and opposite opinions on issues of “Big Power” relationship and regional security between U.S. and China, China’s comprehensive policy is striving for proactive interaction and preventing it from having direct conflict with the U.S. China and U.S. take this historic chance of improving relationship, stress their diplomatic cooperation, and mind the core issues and critical benefits. The author believes China’s “New Security Concept” has initially reached the objective on Sino-U.S. relationship. Nevertheless there are challenges to be overcome. China will expand the relationship with U.S. and other states with “New Security Concept” so as to promote its national interest. Keywords: New Security Concept, China Rise, 911 Incident, Sino-U.S. relationship, North Korea nuclear program, Sino-U.S. strategic & Economic talks

歷經第二次伊拉克戰爭與經濟危機，冷戰後主導世界秩序的支配強權－美國國力遭受打擊，進而出現美國衰落的論述；同一時期，太平洋另一端新興大國—中國藉由快速的經濟發展在世界舞台展露頭角。因應此國際情勢而生的「權力轉移理論」便是探討既存支配強權與新興崛起挑戰者間權力轉移過程的理論。權力轉移論者認為，當新興挑戰國的能力增強至足以與既存支配強權匹配時，若同時其對現狀滿意度越來越低，便可能觸發戰爭。然而，國際政治受各區域國家所牽動，兩強間分庭抗禮且須考量區域中舉足輕重的領導國家。傳統上拉丁美洲被視為美國後院，而中國對該區域各國互動密切，更有論者提出中國直搗美國後院一說。綜觀拉美各國，其中擁有豐富天然資源、作為美洲第二大經濟體的巴西，是首屈一指的區域領導國家。是而本研究以巴西為舞台，從美國－巴西互動、中國－巴西互動，討論新興大國中國與既存支配強權美國間權力轉移的過程，從三方來往間探討權力轉移的跡象並驗證權力轉移論者的主張與假設，另外，本研究嘗試補充權力轉移論者中較少著墨的第三國－區域領導國家，在既存、新興兩強發生權力轉移時所扮演的角色與考量。 / After 2003 Iraq War and financial crisis, the power of dominator, United States is on the way fading. Meanwhile, on the other side of the pacific comes an emerging challenger -China. U.S. decline and China rise complete power transition theory as to illustrate the process of dynamic power change between dominated country and potential challenger. Power transition theory discusses that the war along with power shifting from dominanted state to potential challenger may explore while fulfilling two variables, power parity as the opportunity and negative evaluations of the status quo as the willingness. However, the world politics is well effected by regional countries even on the interactions between two major agents in power transition. Latin America is traditionally regarded as “backyard” of the U.S. but with increased cooperation from China, this claim has been slack. Among all countries in Latin America, Brazil devotees in leading the region due to its rich natural resources and political-economic influence. This article focuses on Brazil and imply competitions between the U.S. and China on the interactions with Brazil so to discuss the power transition phenomena and relevant hypothesis verifications. Furthermore, it tends to develop the autonomy and active position of third state while participating in power transition.

摘要 本研究採用賽局理論 (stag-hunt model) 來推論假設南海海上交通線 (SLOCs) 安全合作的情形．根據結果顯示，爭奪南海的國家，其解決衝突最好的策略應以合作的方式來提昇無論是在石油進口、貿易活動以及該地區船隻航行等方面的安全性。 為縮短假設情境與現實情況的差距，一方面，我們找出海上交通線安全合作之難點：主權、資源、和軍事發展；另一方面，也提出能促進其合作的正面因素：舊有的海上聯合巡邏、非傳統安全合作相關領堿、以及未來的南海行為準則 (SCS COC)。 最後我們介紹了「南海太平島提案」，試圖建立與協調新的海上聯合巡邏來降低該地區的緊張關係，建立彼此之間的信任，並改善衝突的情況。 根據本研究結論表示，我們的研究發現以及一些政策將能協助實施南海海上交通線安全的合作。 / Abstract This research applies game theory (stag-hunt model) to a hypothetical situation of cooperation on Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs) protection in South China Sea (SCS). The results indicate that, in theory, the best option for all disputant countries in the issue is to cooperate in order to increase the security of their oil imports, trade, and ships crossing the region. To overcome the gap between the theoretical model and the reality, we have identified those factors that will hinder the implementation of cooperation on SLOCs protection, sovereignty, resources, and military development; as well as those that can be used to counterbalance the effect of negative ones, previous joint maritime patrols, non-traditional security cooperation, and the future South China Sea Code of Conduct (SCS COC). Finally, we have presented the South China Sea Peace Island Initiative, a proposal to coordinate and create new joint maritime patrols in the region as a mean to reduce tensions, build confidence, and improve the relationship between disputants. We conclude presenting the main findings of this research, as well as those policies that will be useful to implement cooperation on SLOCs protection in SCS.