本研究之目的,旨在探討PDM對台灣3C產業研發管理的影響. 先從台灣3C產業研發管理所涉及之組織環境,核心能耐,及組織與知識創造的關聯性做番檢視, 再將主題PDM對焦在研發管理的創新活動中, 復以流程的構面觀點, 透過個案訪談及實驗分析, 理出PDM對研發管理影響之脈絡如下: 一. PDM導入時,進入障礙傾向來自: (1) 研發人員心理. (2) 既有流程漏洞. (3) 橫向協調不易. 二. 需配合的推動要素傾向: (1) 技術系統客製. (2) 流程改造. 三. PDM對研發管理的直接助益傾向: (1) 團隊協同. (2) 專案導向. (3) BOM管理. (4) 既有資料庫整合綜效. 四. A公司導入PDM後, 組織能耐在 (1) 程序效能 及(2) 研發時程進度掌控上, 皆有可觀的進展. 領悟與啟示-----PDM真正帶給研發管理最大的助益, 在於 : 它會刺激我們省思, 加速改造流程..... / Abstract The purpose of this research is to explore the affections of PDM on the Research & Development management, in the environment of Tai- Wan`s 3C industry. Starting from viewing the environments of innovative organizations, Core competencies, and the relationship between the organization and Knowledge creating. Then, focusing the subject PDM on the innovative Activities of Research & Development management. And in the process Point of view, via interviewing of several parties together with experi- ment analysis, to sum up the veins of the affections of PDM on the Re- search & Development management as following : 1. When introducing the PDM system, the entering obstacles tend to cause from : (1) The psychology of Research & Development peoples. (2) The defects of existing processes. (3) Horizontally coordinating being not easy. 2. The key promotive factors to be operated in coordination tend to be : (1) Technical system customization. (2) Process reconstruction 3. The direct benefits of PDM for Research & Development management tend to be : (1) Teamwork co-ordination. (2) Project oriented. (3) BOM management. (4) The interated synergy of existing data banks. 4. After conduting the PDM system, the competencies of party A in the areas of (1) Process efficiency and (2) Research & Development sche- dule control perform conspicuous improvement. Inspiration ------ The most benefit of PDM truly impacts on Research & Development management is : It will stimulate us to make a self-exa- mination. To speed up to improve our process …….

由於資訊科技的發達，使全球資訊的分享加速，一方面使得企業創新的刺激源源不絕，另一方面也使得消費者的需求慾望越來越廣，造成產品生命週期不斷縮短，在現今的環境下，企業若要長久經營甚至維持成長，就必需積極從事創新之新產品開發。雖說新產品或技術的創新對企業的貢獻相當大，但研發專案往往存在高度不確定性且耗時耗力，一旦專案失敗，亦會對企業造成相當程度的傷害，導致許多企業望之卻步。因此，1960年代初期，Mansfield(1968)等學者開始從事研發支出費用與產業或公司生產力相關性的研究。其後，由於財報資料取得的方便性與客觀性，加上個別研發專案的效益較難追蹤、亦難以評估，大多數研發投入與研發績效相關的研究，首先，在變數上都是以財報上的財務數字為基礎，如研發費用、研發密度、公司獲利、營收等；其次，在研究個體上則是以企業整體為主。然而，過去許多研發投入與績效相關之研究，不論在投入面或效益面皆提出了許多非財務性的項目，此外，在現今即將邁入第四代研發管理的環境下，組織企業的研究發展工作多以「專案」的方式來進行，而非以年度企業整體預算進行管理。綜合上述兩點過去此類研究與實務上之落差，本研究採用經濟部工業局「主導性新產品開發計劃」之計劃成效追蹤問卷資料，以個別研發專案為研究對象，並將投入面擴大區分為成本、人力、時間三個構面，探討研發專案投入對非財務面之技術產出及財務績效之影響，期能彌補過去此類研究與實務上之落差。 本研究依照研發專案投入所產生之非財務與財務績效構面，分成兩大研究主題，研究結果顯示： 一、研發專案投入對技術產出之影響：專案投資金額對專利權與創新技術數有顯著正向的影響，專案研發人員之教育程度只對創新技術數有顯著正向之影響，研發時間與專案技術產出皆無顯著相關。 二、研發專案投入對財務產出之影響及其遞延效果：專案投資金額與專案研發人員之教育程度對開發產品銷售額具有顯著之正向影響，且從產品銷售第一年起，沒有時間上的落差，且專案投資金額之影響可延續三年，專案研發人員之教育程度之影響可延續兩年，研發時間與開發產品銷售額無顯著相關。 此外，吾人並針對實證結果與實務界人士進行訪談，瞭解與假說不符者之原因，結果發現：專案研發時間較長，不完全是因為企業願意投入較多的心力，有很大的可能是研發瓶頸的發生與研發人員的不效率，這些部份不但對專案產出沒有顯著貢獻，還可能危害專案的成功。 / As a result of the progression of information technology, the speed of information sharing is getting higher and higher. On one hand it makes companies get the stimulation of innovation more easily than before, on the other it also makes the desire of customers becomes wider and wider. Thus, the life cycles of all products in the world then become shorter and shorter. In this environment, companies who want to survive or even get growth have to do their development and research activities more aggressively than before. Although the benefits of R&D is great, lots of companies still shrink back at the sight. That’s because of the high uncertainty of R&D and the needs of huge amount of time and money, and companies always get incredible harm once they fail. Therefore, many researchers have tried to clarify the relationship between R&D inputs and R&D performance. Due to the accessibility and objectivity of financial report, the past researches in this field always used the information from financial reports, and set their research objects as the whole companies. But many researchers have pointed out that there are not only financial inputs and outputs of R&D activities but also non-financial ones. In the global trend to 4th generation of R&D management, R&D organizations have changed their management way form total budgeting to project management. To eliminate these two gaps between theory and practice, in this research we use the questionnaire data of Leading Product Development Programs from Industrial Development Bureau Ministry of Economic Affairs to make our research stand on a project view point and get other non-financial inputs and outputs data that we can’t get from financial reports. Hope we can earn more practical results to help companies making their decisions of R&D activities. According to the two perspectives of R&D project performances, non-financial and financial, we separated this research into two subjects, the results showed that: 1. The effects of R&D project inputs on technical outputs: we found that the project dollar investment has significant effect on the number of patents and innovative techniques, and the education degree of the project’s R&D engineers only has significant effect on innovative techniques but on patents. On the other hand, R&D time of the project has no significant effect on both patents and innovative techniques. 2. The effects of R&D project inputs on financial performance, their time-lag effect and their continuity: we found that project dollar investment has significant effect on sales of the product that developed from the project since the first year it was sold, which means the time-lag doesn’t exist in this situation, and this effect can last for three years or even more. The education degree of the project’s R&D engineers has significant effect on sales of the product that developed from the project, from the first year it was sold. So, there is no time-lag, but this effect can only last two years. Besides, R&D time of the project has no significant effect on any year’s sales of the product that developed from the project. Finally, we have interviewed some practitioners discussing about our results that were not consistent with our hypotheses. According to their opinions, the reason why some projects spend longer R&D time is not just because those companies intend to pay more effort on those projects. It also includes the inefficiency of R&D engineer and the bottleneck of that project. These inefficiency and bottlenecks are not only non-value-added but also sometimes harmful to a R&D project. That’s why we found in this research that there is no significant relationship between R&D time of a project and its performances, neither financial performances nor non-financial ones.

The goal of this dissertation was to explore the key factors and managerial mechanisms that influence performance of inter-organizational collaborative teams. Specifically, this research addressed five key constructs: inter-organizational collaboration relationships, project characteristics, team process, managerial mechanisms, and team performance of inter-organizational collaborative teams. Data for this study was collected via semi-structured interviews within two stages. In the first stage, interviews were done with the executives, focusing on the inter-organizational relationships, managerial mechanisms and the performance of the inter-organizational collaborative team from strategic perspectives. The next stage involved with interviews with the team members to collect the information regarding team process more thoroughly. The results suggested that (1) Inter-organizational relationships positively affect the inter-organizational team process. (2) Project Characteristics also play a role in the team process of inter-organizational collaboration. (3) Inter-organizational team process have positively influence on the performance of inter-organizational collaborative teams. (4) Managerial mechanisms, such as mutual learning, and organizational culture, also have influences on the team process and team performance of inter-organizational collaborative teams. However, we had few findings about the team incentives program or any other formal mechanisms that promote the team process and team performance.

為提升國內軟體專案生產力和品質，建立度量與分析的機制，本研究參考能力成熟度整合模式(Capability Maturity Model Integration, CMMI)之度量與分析流程領域作為指引，結合GQM (Goal-Question-Metric)及PSM (Practical Software & Systems Measurement)的度量方法論，發展一套提問式驅動度量與分析流程規劃法，稱為QMAP (Questions driven- Measurement & Analysis Process Planning)—運用5W1H (Why, Who, When, What, Where & How) 提問方式，有系統地依據CMMI度量與分析流程的要求，找出軟體專案的成功因素，逐步建立組織內部的度量與分析流程的基準。首先，以某公司之個案情境為例進行背景分析、目標分析和流程分析，接著以使用分析—使用案例及其描述之資訊需求，建議整合運用PSM Insight, MS Project及IBM Rational ClearQuest等工具來支援軟體專案度量與分析流程之自動化。經工具系統之實作展示，再以自我評鑑來檢視QMAP於CMMI度量與分析流程之目標及執行方法的符合程度，而部分未達成的項目則作為未來研究之方向。 / This research proposes a method called QMAP (Questions driven- Measurement and Analysis Process Planning) in order to meet goals and practices in Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI). QMAP is about 5W1H questions which begin with why, who, when, what, where and how. Before answering the 5W1H questions, we start with background analysis, goal analysis, and process analysis based on a sample company’s management context. Use Cases are then described as the formal information requirements of the MA process support system. In the implementation, we suggest to integrate some tools, such as MS Project, PSM Insight, and IBM Rational ClearQuest, to facilitate the measurement data collection and analysis activities during the software project development. After illustrating the implementation prototype, a checklist for self-appraisal is presented to identify the compliances of CMMI goals and practices, and the incomplete parts for future research extension.

近年來，許多公司面臨需要透過資訊科技來獲取競爭優勢。各產業對於資訊系統的要求越來愈多，促使資訊系統的開發工作越加複雜，而使得成功完成資訊系統的開發變的日益困難。 軟體工程協會指出軟體能力成熟度整合模式(Capability Maturity Model Integration, CMMI)強調軟體開發需要追求開發程序的改善與程序的最佳化。透過程序的改善以降低軟體開發專案失敗的機率。根據創意的定義，資訊系統開發程序的改善是團隊創意的表現。 目前少有研究從創意的觀點探討資訊系統開發程序的改善。根據社會認知理論指出效能信念是解釋行為/產出的關鍵元素。學者們也證明創意自我效能對於創意的重要性。到目前為止，效能與創意的連結僅限於個人層次的研究。因此，本研究將以資訊系統開發程序改善為研究情境，進行集體效能與創意文獻的連結，提出資訊系統開發團隊集體創意效能之概念，並探討集體創意效能的前置因素與了解干擾集體創意效能形成的因素。 本研究採用部分最小平方法 (Partial Least Squares)，分析98組開發資訊系統的學生團隊與61組開發資訊系統的業界團隊資料，以驗證研究模型。結果指出在學生團隊方面，團隊知識程度、成就動機、團隊知識整合能力會正向影響集體創意效能的形成；團隊互動程度會干擾團隊知識程度與集體創意效能的關係、專案複雜度會干擾團隊知識程度與集體創意效能的關係以及干擾團隊知識整合能力與集體創意效能的關係。在業界團隊方面，團隊知識程度、成就動機、團隊知識整合能力會正向影響集體創意效能的形成；團隊互動程度會干擾團隊知識程度與集體創意效能的關係、專案複雜度會干擾團隊知識程度與集體創意效能的關係、成就動機與集體創意效能的關係以及團隊知識整合能力與集體創意效能的關係。此外，本研究亦探討在不同專案複雜度的情境中，影響集體創意效能之前置因素。 / Numerous companies have recently employed information systems to obtain a competitive edge. The demand for many new and different information system (IS) applications has increased the scope and complexity of IS developing. Developing successful IS projects became difficult. Software Engineering Institute proposed Capability Maturity Model Integration (CMMI) that emphasized process optimization of software development. The improvement in software process can reduce the probability failure in development software. According to the definition of creativity, the improvement in software process is team creativity. However, there are few studies which discuss the issues about systems development process improvement from creative perspective. According to the social cognitive theory, efficacy is a key factor for interpreting behavior/products. Scholars demonstrated that creative self-efficacy is important to creativity. Previous researchers which studied the potential link between efficacy and creativity are focus on individual level. Thus, this study combined the literatures of collective efficacy and team creativity to propose a new construct (Collective creative efficacy, CCE) for information systems development teams, and explore the influences and moderators for CCE. 98 student project teams and 61 industry project teams are surveyed. Partial least squares (PLS) results demonstrate that team knowledge, achievement motivation and knowledge integration ability positively influenced CCE, team interaction positively moderated the relationships between team knowledge and CCE, and project complexity negatively moderated the relationships between team knowledge and CCE, and the relationships between knowledge integration capability and CCE in both samples. Project complexity positively moderated the relationships between achievement motivation and CCE in the model of industry project teams. An attempt is also made to understand the antecedents of CCE in different project complexity.

在學術領域之中，其過去對於新藥產業的研究大多集中於「新藥發展策略」、「產業環境分析」與「智慧財產權策略」等領域，而探討新藥研發各階段之團隊組成與運作模式的研究仍然極少。 本研究以個案訪談法為主要研究方式，深入探討兩家台灣新藥研發公司（包括基亞生技、台灣微脂體），並以『新藥研發流程』與『技術知識特質』兩個構面來探索其對於『新藥研發專案團隊運作』之影響。 所得到的初步研究發現包括： 1. 新藥研發專案各階段中，技術知識路徑相依程度與技術知識系統複雜程度呈現負相關，當路徑相依程度越高時，系統複雜程度則越低。 2. 新藥研發專案隨著階段的推進，專案團隊的組成與結構也會隨之產生變化，臨床前與臨床試驗皆有不同的團隊組成與結構。 3. 技術知識系統複雜程度會影響新藥研發團隊組成的異質/多元程度：技術知識系統複雜程度越高，其團隊組成的異質/多元程度越高。 4. 技術知識路徑相依程度會影響團隊採取何種團隊運作策略：（1）路徑相依程度愈「高」或是愈「低」，專案團隊會傾向採取「自行發展」的團隊運作模式；（2）路徑相依程度為「中」時，專案團隊會傾向採取先執行「初步研發」活動之後，再與外部廠商進行「合作研發」。 5. 技術知識路徑相依程度會影響新藥研發專案各階段的團隊類型：（1）技術知識路徑相依程度愈低，專案團隊會傾向採用「重量級」、「自主型」的團隊運作模式；（2）技術知識路徑相依程度愈高會傾向採用「功能型」、「輕量級」的團隊運作模式。 6. 技術知識內隱化程度愈高，該專案在團隊運作上愈容易將外部成員視為內部團隊，甚至在團隊組成上直接將外部成員納入內部團隊之中。 7. 在臨床試驗階段，試驗主持人的過往經驗為成功關鍵之一。 8. 新藥研發廠商若擁有先導研發的能力，可以減短研發時程與成本。 / Most of previous the studies on pharmaceutical industry have been focused on the development strategy, environmental analysis and intellectual property. Very few of them emphasize the stage of new drug development concerning the project team management. This study uses technological knowledge characteristics (path dependence, complexity, and explicitness) and drug development process (drug discovery, non-clinical, pre-clinical, and clinical ) to explore the effect upon project team management. The result of this study： 1. In every stage of new drug development, the path dependence and the complexity of technological knowledge have significantly negative correlation. 2. When the new drug development project evolves into the clinical stage, the structure of project team will be different. 3. The complexity of technological knowledge can affect the composition of team members. If the complexity of technological knowledge is higher, the complexity of members is higher. 4. The path dependence of technological knowledge can affect the development strategy. If the path dependence is higher or lower, the team members prefer “inner development”. If the path dependence is medium degree, the team members prefer “primary inner development” and then “cooperative research and development”. 5. The path dependence of technological knowledge can affect the team structure. If the path dependence is higher, the enterprise prefers “Heavyweight team structure” or “Autonomous team structure”. If the path dependence is lower, the enterprise prefers “Lightweight team structure” or “Functional team structure”. 6. If the explicitness of technological knowledge is higher, the enterprise intends to recruit team member from outside. 7. In clinical stage, the practice investigator can be key person of the success. 8. If the enterprise has the ability of “primary inner development”, the time and the cost of the new drug development can be reduced.

近年來全球醫藥市場競爭越來越激烈，歐美製藥產業面臨：1.暢銷藥品專利即將到期、2.新藥產品生命週期縮短、3. 研發支出與產出不成比例、4. 健保藥價之削減，過去傳統藥廠以垂直整合方式開發新藥的方式已無法負荷艱困的產業環境。因此，開發新藥方式已從過去垂直整合轉向產業分工的方式，減低風險，提升新藥開發成功機會。因此，吾人可以預測這些廠商必須借用大量的外部資源才能快速地推出新藥。 目前我國新藥開發處於萌芽期，廠商規模小且較無經驗，加上國內過去以學名藥為主，因此，開發新藥一直是國內廠商的一個夢，也是製藥產業獲利最高的一項產品。然而，過去的研究重點往往著重在製藥產業相關業者發展策略、關鍵成功因素、營運模式或生技公司之創新管理、智財管理等層面探討，對於新藥開發流程的實務歷程的研究較少著墨。故本研究針對我國新藥開發公司的「新藥開發流程」進行研究，試圖以開放式創新觀點，探討其新藥開發流程中，專案團隊的外部技術網路與內部專案管理的關係，期能對於「團隊間之開放式創新管理」方面，提供一些實務上與學理上的貢獻。 本研究方法採個案分析法，文獻探討部分包含新藥開發流程、開放式創新、外部技術網路、專案管理，導出本研究之觀念性架構，以此理論架構發展出個案訪談問題，在研究中實地訪談四家之我國新藥開發廠商，並從中分析我國新藥開發流程中外部技術網路與專案管理之關係，透過個案分析推論我國新藥開發流程內、外部合作的關鍵成功因素。 本研究發現，新藥開發流程中，各階段技術不同，新藥開發專案團隊須清楚地界定本身的研發能力，才能有效連結外部技術資源。同時，專案團隊要能有效連結外部技術資源，團隊成員須擔任技術中介人，以促進適當的技術流進、流出，達成開放式創新。因此，選擇適當的技術中介人是新藥開發成功的關鍵因素。

本論文主要是以實質選擇權分析法對在最適決策下供應鏈及公司的價值進行評價。內容包含兩篇文章。第一章為緒論；第二章與第三章為主文。在此兩章中 ，我們會先介紹研究動機、目的與文獻探討，接著架構模型，據以求出於最適決策下供應鏈或公司價值的封閉解後，以比較靜態分析法分析各參數對供應鏈或公司價值的影響。第四章為總結。 / 第一篇文章為對在隨機成本下供應鏈的評價。該模型是以單一供應商、單一零售商與多個消費者組成之垂直整合的二階段序列式動態供應鏈為架構，假設市場的現貨價格為動態過程，供應商和零售商每單位商品的成本為隨現貨價格變動的隨機成本。在此模型中，供應鏈的經營者以銷售量為決策，聯合利潤最大化為目標。此外，存貨設定在零售商的一方，而零售商所持有的存貨可視為擁有一個無窮期的美式買權，當存貨出清時，如同執行一個美式買權一般，以促使利潤的實現。接著我們利用比較靜態分析法就無風險利率和現貨價格報酬率的波動度對於最適決策下所求得的供應鏈價值之影響進行分析後，得到供應鏈價值會隨著無風險利率的上升而增加，亦會隨著現貨價格報酬率波動度的提高而增加。此結論和Cortazar and Schwartz(1993)以兩階段製造產品為運作模式之公司價值就無風險利率和現貨價格報酬率的波動度進行比較靜態分析後所得到的結果一致。 / 第二篇文章為對在隨機匯率下兩階段生產之公司進行評價。此文考慮Cortazar and Schwartz(1993)的模型，在產品之製造為兩階段式生產的條件下，納入隨機匯率，用實質選擇權分析法，評價以外銷專案為標的之公司價值。我們針對模型中的參數：本國的無風險利率、以外幣計價之現貨價格報酬率波動度及匯率波動度的變化對公司價值的影響進行分析後，而得到這些參數與公司價值呈現正相關的結果。此外，因動態現貨價格與隨機匯率的相關性 ，我們亦分析現貨價格和匯率的相關係數對公司價值之影響後，得到兩者正相關程度越大或是負相關程度越小時，公司價值就越大，從而體認到僅從匯率走勢的升值或貶值來判斷外銷專案價值有利與否是不夠詳盡的，還要考慮現貨價格和匯率交互影響的程度，決策者才能做出有利於外銷專案更好的決定。 / 最後，我們將此兩篇文章歸納出一些重要的結論後，接著針對本論文研究主題的未來發展方向，提出一些觀點和建議，以作一個總結。 / This text uses a real options approach to price the value of the supply chain or the company. It contains two articles . Chapter 1 is the introduction; Chapter 2 and Chapter 3 are the main text.In these chapters, we introduce the study motive and literature review, the model, the closed form of the supply chain or the company in the optimal operating policy, and then use comparative statics method to analyze the effect of some parameters that risk-free interest rate, volatility of the spot price, volatility of the exchange rate etc. Finally, we give a summary. / The first article is in Chapter 2. It is to price the optimal value of the two echelon sequential dynamic supply chain which is composed of one supplier, one retailer and many consumers. In this model, we assume that the spot price of goods is a dynamic process, the costs of the per unit goods of supplier and retailer are up to the change of the spot price, the sales volume is the decision strategy, and their aim is to maximize joint profits. In this supply chain, the value of the stocks for retailer can be regarded as a perpetual American call option. Finally, we will use comparative static to examine the effect of the volatility of the spot price and risk free rate for the optimal value of the supply chain, and we obtain the same results as Cortazar and Schwartz’s (1993) optimal value of two-stage companies. / The second article is in Chapter 3. Based on the extended the Cortazar and Schwartz (1993) model, we use the Real Options Approach to price the closed form of the value of the two-stage production for a company under stochastic exchange rate. With regard to the parameters in the model: domestic risk-free interest rate, the volatility of the foreign spot price, and the volatility of the exchange rate, we find that the domestic risk-free interest rate, volatility of the foreign spot price, and the volatility of exchange rate have positive correlated with the optimal value of the company. Moreover, due to the correlated relation between the dynamic foreign spot price and the stochastic exchange rate, we analyze the change of the coefficient of correlation between the foreign spot price and the exchange rate, and obtained the more large optimal value of the company when they are more large positive correlated or negative correlated. In other word, we need to consider the influence between the foreign spot rate and the exchange rate at the same time, and then the manager can make the optimal decision about the exporting project. / Finally, we summed up some important conclusions of Chapter 2 and Chapter 3, and then proposed some views and suggestions for the study the theme and the developing direction in the future.

近年來在政府財政拮据的情形下，以BOT模式進行民間機構參與公共工程計畫已成為時勢所趨，但是BOT計劃的投資風險相當大，所面臨的投資環境的不確定性相當高。此時若以傳統NPV法來評估投資計劃的價值時，無法把管理者所擁有的『管理彈性』的選擇權價值考慮進來，而造成投資計劃真正價值被低估的情形。隨著實質選擇權相關理論的興起，可以用來評估管理者所擁有的『管理彈性』的選擇權價值，加上傳統的NPV值之後，即是所謂的『Expanded NPV』。『Expanded NPV』有考量管理者所擁有的管理彈性選擇權的價值，可以顯示投資計劃的真正價值，與傳統的NPV一起提供給決策者參考的話，可使決策者作出更精確的判斷。 　　台灣高鐵公司標得台灣高鐵BOT案，由於所簽定的合約規定不夠詳細，以及政府應辦事項執行不利，使得台灣高鐵公司擁有遞延開發的選擇權，屬於實質選擇權中的等待選擇權，台灣高鐵公司可以等待到有利的時點才開始動工興建。本文以『Quigg實質選擇權評價模式』評估台灣高鐵公司在台灣高鐵BOT案上所擁有的等待價值，經過電腦運算後為785.29億元，加上傳統的NPV值1169.2億元，台灣高鐵BOT案的『Expanded NPV』為1954.49億元。 　　另外經過本文的實證研究，與台灣高鐵BOT案之等待價值正相關者為『台灣高鐵的收益』、『台灣高鐵收益之年成長率』與『台灣高鐵投入成本年成長率之波動性』；而負相關者為『台灣高鐵的投入成本』、『台灣高鐵投入成本之年成長率』、『台灣高鐵收益年成長率之波動性』、『無風險利率』、『投資人對於單位風險所要求的風險貼水』、『投資標的案在開發前因其他用途或附屬利益所帶來收益佔投資收益的百分比』與『台灣高鐵收益與投入成本共變異數』。 　　本文評估收益與投入成本的各項目以及各參數對於台灣高鐵BOT案之等待價值的影響程度方面，在台灣高鐵收益部分，對於台灣高鐵等待開發的選擇權價值影響程度較大者為台灣高鐵的『票價收入』部分。在台灣高鐵投入成本部分，對於台灣高鐵等待開發的選擇權價值影響程度較大者為台灣高鐵的『興建成本』部分。在參數部分，對於台灣高鐵等待開發的選擇權價值影響程度較大者為『台灣高鐵收益年成長率』、『台灣高鐵投入成本年成長率』、『台灣高鐵收益年成長率之波動性』、『台灣高鐵投入成本年成長率之波動性』與『無風險利率』。 目 錄 第一章 緒論---------------------------------------------------1 第一節 研究動機---------------------------------------------1 第二節 研究目的---------------------------------------------3 第三節 研究方法與步驟---------------------------------------4 第四節 研究範圍---------------------------------------------5 第五節 研究章節概述-----------------------------------------6 第二章 文獻探討-----------------------------------------------8 第一節 實質選擇權之相關文獻---------------------------------8 第二節 傳統淨現值分析法與實質選擇權分析法------------------19 第三節 實質選擇權的種類------------------------------------25 第四節 BOT模式介紹-----------------------------------------32 第五節 台灣高鐵個案介紹------------------------------------46 第三章 研究模型建立------------------------------------------60 第一節 研究架構--------------------------------------------60 第二節 Quigg實質選擇權評價模式推導-------------------------61 第三節 變數定義與參數估計----------------------------------69 第四節 資料來源--------------------------------------------88 第五節 研究限制--------------------------------------------89 第四章 研究結果----------------------------------------------91 第一節 結果分析--------------------------------------------91 第二節 敏感度分析------------------------------------------99 第五章 結論與建議-------------------------------------------112 第一節 研究結論-------------------------------------------112 第二節 後續研究建議---------------------------------------118 參考文獻 ---------------------------------------------------121

以前在台灣房地產開發市場上主要的房屋銷售模式是預售制度，這是受限於當時政治、經濟的環境條件下，所形成的特殊制度，主要的原因就是需要從市場中，獲得足夠的營運週轉資金；但是台灣的房地產市場在這幾年來逐漸轉變，已經出現為數不少的成屋銷售個案，主要著眼於當房地產市場景氣上揚時，延遲銷售能夠使專案獲得更大的報酬，而且當房地產專案融資的取得逐漸放寬，資金來源不在成為限制條件時，預售房屋可能已不再是唯一的銷售模式，且可能不再是最適銷售模式，但市場上房地產業者仍延續以前的思考模式，以融資比例的大小（有錢沒錢），作為判斷銷售時機的決策依據。本研究所想要研究的方向是最適銷售時機的選擇與融資決策是否會影響銷售時機的選擇，在各種不同市場條件下最適銷售時機與選擇權價值的變化。 本研究以實質選擇權（Real Options）模式探討新建房屋最適銷售時機，但以應用以前學者所推導的模式並不做模式的推導；首先以建立市場中專案營收的模式與建立實質選擇權決策模式，模擬房地產業者營運情境，並以隨機亂數帶入房價與融資利率模擬模式中，以模擬房地產市場中房價與融資利率，將模擬結果帶入所建立的模式中，模擬不同房地產市場條件下專案的營收，並藉由不同的決策值所模擬的專案營收，探討房地產市場中新建房屋的最適銷售時機的選擇與選擇權的價值。並且將模式中所應用的各變數予以獨立（在其他條件不變下，僅改變該變數）做敏感性分析，探討各模式中變數對於選擇最適銷售時機與實質選擇價值變化所產生的影響，以瞭解房地產市場中各外生變數，對於房地產市場新建房屋最適銷售時機與實質選擇權價值所可能造成的影響，與所應該注意的涵義。 第壹章 緒論 第壹節 研究動機與目的 1 第貳節 研究範圍與限制 5 第參節 研究架構 7 第貳章 產業分析與個案訪談 第壹節 銷售時機 11 第貳節 不動產金融 25 第參節 文獻探討與個案研究對本研究的涵意 28 第參章 文獻探討 第壹節 最適銷售時機模式 32 第貳節 文獻探討與個案研究對本研究的涵意 51 第肆章 模式建構與模式設計 第壹節 最適銷售時機 56 第貳節 研究設計 67 第伍章 實證結果分析 第壹節 融資決策與最適銷售時機 75 第貳節 實質選擇權價值敏感性分析 81 第參節 最適銷售時機選擇敏感性分析 90 第陸章 結論與建議 第壹節 研究結果涵義 104 第貳節 建議 110 參考文獻 中文部份 114 英文部份 115