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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
101

論航空事故之侵權行為責任-以飛航管制員之過失為中心- / On air traffic controllers’ negligence

吳政叡 Unknown Date (has links)
隨著航空產業科技技術日新月異,發展一日千里,搭乘航空器在世界各國穿梭,已成了現代人生活中不可或缺的交通運輸方式之一,尤其是當今航空運送過程層層關卡中,飛航管制無疑是對航機間安全最能直接掌握風險的一環,也因此探求飛航管制員業務上作為與不作為之注意義務,是進一步探討飛航事故中其民事過失損害賠償責任的核心。本論文架構為第一章為序論,第二章比較我國法與日本法在民事過失責任概念異同,第三章就從事航空運送第一線的飛航管制員工作內容注意義務進行探討,第四章則分析飛航管制員過失案例,最後一章則提出結論與預防建議,歸納可能誘發航空事故之人為過失因素,並提出若干預防措施作為參考。 / In the process of air transportation, take the Cheese theory for an example , the air traffic control is by all means the most important and crucial layer of risk control. Therefore understanding the “dos and undos” of the air traffic controller is the key to the tortious liability of the air traffic control. The structure of this thesis is as follows: The chapter one is an introduction. The chapter two compares the civil negligence concept between the law of our country and Japan. The chapter three indicates the working characteristics and liability of the air traffic controller. The chapter four analyses a series of negligent air traffic controllers’cases. The final chapter ends up with personal recommendations for practical references.
102

西洋古代における哲学・医学・数学・懐疑主義による仮設法使用の比較研究

金山, 弥平 03 1900 (has links)
科学研究費補助金 研究種目:基盤研究(C)(2) 課題番号:14510010 研究代表者:金山 弥平 研究期間:2002-2004年度
103

從實踐中體現: 匯聚而生一個多元文化「Hackerspace」社群 / Embodied in Practice: The Emergence of a Multicultural Hackerspace Community

高敏功, Kao, Eli Unknown Date (has links)
從實踐中體現: 匯聚而生一個多元文化「Hackerspace」社群 / Hackerspaces are open and public workshops where participants pro-actively engage with technology in a social context. From origins in 1990s Germany, the global propagation of hackerspaces has been grassroots, decentralized, and extra-institutional. How does a new hackerspace emerge? What are some key social processes at work within a hackerspace and how are they conditioned by a multilingual, multicultural setting? What roles do values and ideology play? The present study addresses these questions through immersion in the social world of a hackerspace in Taipei, Taiwan. Participant observation and in-depth interview data were analyzed using grounded theory techniques. The results emphasize that initial organizing depends on catalysts and relevant prior experience may be crucial. Local conditions in the form of a multicultural, multilingual environment are shown to affect social processes, sometimes as a source of friction. Ideological and political concerns do not seem salient to Taipei Hackerspace participants generally, though values implicit in practices present alternatives to institutional conventions. In addition, four primary processes are proposed: “Project-ing,” Sharing, “Making it one’s own,” and Negotiating. Finally, support is given to the concept of a transferable hackerspace model that is adapted to local conditions. The values and principles observed—sharing and openness norms, “do-ocracy”, ad hoc organizing, resistance to rules and hierarchy—can be traced to various influences in hackerspaces’ historical development, particularly the open source movement, and serve to optimize hacking potential while fostering a heterogeneous community network.
104

「女性研究 」文獻之書目計量學研究 / A Bibliometric Study of Women's Studies Literature

李家寧, Li, Chia Ning Unknown Date (has links)
本研究旨在應用書目計量學方法分析1900年至2013年間,女性研究文獻之特性,藉以探討女性研究之發展情形。研究樣本取自WOS資料庫(包含三個子資料庫SSCI、SCIE和A&HCI),計16,852篇相關書目資料。期望本研究結果能提供女性研究學界與圖書館或資料單位參考,協助其做有效之館藏規劃及期刊資訊服務。 本研究結果歸納如下:(1) 女性研究文獻篇數與年代是成正比的狀況,較符合指數成長模式。進一步以指數迴歸預測成長篇數的話,顯示女性研究文獻有成長減緩的趨勢。(2)女性研究文獻之主要出版國為美國、英國、加拿大、荷蘭、德國等國。 (3)英文為女性研究文獻最重要之寫作語文。(4)女性研究文獻之出版類型以期刊文章為主,佔總文獻之62.86%。(5)女性研究廣泛應用於各學科,主題領域前五名分別為心理學相關、女性研究(狹義)、歷史、文學及教育與教育研究。 (6) 女性研究之文獻分布相當分散,但仍有其核心期刊。(7)本研究符合布萊德福定律,但不符合布萊德福-齊夫定律曲線。(8) 高生產力期刊與高被引期刊的主題明顯分散。 (10) 洛卡定律、普萊斯平方根定律、80/20 定律不適用於本研究。(11) 研究機構的生產力分散,大學校院為主要研究機構,機構下的系所分布以心理學系所最多。(12) 美國與英國為相關研究機構最多的國家,也是延攬他國學術成果的最多的國家。 本研究最後依據研究發現之結果,提出以下建議:(1)本研究之各項研究成果,可作為圖書資訊界館藏發展與管理之參考。(2)女性研究相關研究人員,應具備跨主題領域的合作研究能力且法文、德文、西班牙文等外語能力。(4)資料庫公司應提升書目資料精確性,以利研究。(5)定期對女性研究文獻進行分析,有助於女性研究相關研究人員瞭解該領域之研究發展。 / The purpose of the study is to understand the contents, relations, development, and trends between various disciplines of “women’s studies.” This study analyzes the characteristics of women’s studies literature during 1900-2013 by bibliometric approach, collecting analytical components such as the frequencies of the publication, publication languages, countries of publications, journal sources, cited times, disciplines of subject categories and document type from three major sub-databases of Web of Science services: SCIE, SSCI, and A&HCI. A total of 16,852 bibliographic records were retrieved from the databases. The results of the present study are as follows. (1) The growth pattern of women’s studies literature during 1900-2013 generally fits exponential growth, but the growth has been slowed down since 2011. (2) United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Netherlands and Germany are five major countries of women’s studies publications. (3) English is the most often used language. (4) Journal articles are the major type of women’s studies publications, accounting for 62.86% of total publications. (5) Women’s studies are scattered in multiple disciplines, with five subjects significantly contributing to the literature count: psychology and its related disciplines, women’s studies (in narrow definition), history, literature, and education and educational research. (6) Despite of the scattered distribution of women’s studies literature, core journals of women’s studies still can be identified. (7)The distribution of journal articles fits Bradford Law, but it does not fit the typical Bradford-Zipf’s S-shaped curve. (8) The journal subjects of highly productive journals and highly cited journals vary. (9) Author distribution is counted by single authorship and collaborative authorship; the results show that author distribution neither fits Lotka’s law, Square Root Law or 80/20 Rule. (10) Academic institutions are major producers of women’s studies, with departments in universities and colleges concerning psychology and its related disciplines being the main contributors to the publications. (11) Most productive research institutions are distributed over United States, United Kingdom, Canada, Australia and Turkey. The findings of the study may provide better understanding of the past, current and future of women’s studies, and serve as references to identify more suitable, popular and influential journals and literature for both research purposes and library collection development and management.
105

Magma Evolution of the Cerro Bayo Laccolith in the Chachahuén Volcanic Complex, Argentina / Evolution av Cerro Bayo lakkolitens magma i vulkankomplexet Chachahuén, Argentina

Sun, Yang January 2018 (has links)
The Chachahuén volcanic complex, with the Cerro Bayo laccolith as one of the largest intrusions, is part of back-arc Payenia volcanic province in western central Argentina. Laccoliths show potential for generating oil in sedimentary basins and producing ore deposits. It is crucial to put more effort into understanding the magma plumbing system beneath the Chachahuén volcanic complex, which the Cerro Bayo laccolith is part of. Thus this project present the first thermobarometric modelling for the Cerro Bayo laccolith and the Chachahuén volcanic complex. Several thermometers and barometers were applied to plagioclase, amphibole and clinopyroxene to understand magma evolution in the underlying plumbing system. The dacitic to rhyodacitic laccolith rocks from Cerro Bayo have porphyric textures with plagioclase in the form of both clots (glomerocrysts) and single crystals, amphibole and clinopyroxene as main phenocrysts, while enclaves are more mafic in composition and have equigranular textures. Plagioclase in the sample varies from andesine to labradorite with a composition of An22-An68, while the clinopyroxene can be classified into diopside to augite with cores (Mg#=76-84) and rims (Mg#62-72). Amphibole, varies from pargasite, ferropargasite to magesiohastingsite and hastingsite, which can be grouped into three groups according to the Mg#: low Mg# amphibole (Mg# = 40-51), medium Mg# amphibole (Mg# = 52-61) and high Mg# amphibole (Mg# = 62-78). Besides, most of the Fe-Ti oxides in the samples are titanomagnetite with Usp mol.% in the range of 0.04-0.54. Results from clinopyroxene-liquid thermobarometers suggest a crystallization depth of 44 to 51 km for clinopyroxene cores and a crystallization depth of 19 to 31 km for rims, of which the derived crystallization temperatures are in the range of 1144 to 1170 °C and 973 to 1002 °C respectively. On the other hand, different thermobarometers of amphibole give consistent results of crystallization temperatures and depths. According to the amphibole-liquid thermometer, low Mg# (Mg#= 40-51) amphiboles have the lowest crystallization temperature in the range of 898 to 931°C, while medium Mg# (Mg#=52-61) amphiboles have higher crystallization temperatures in the range of 951 to 972°C and high Mg# (Mg# = 62-78) amphiboles have highest crystallization temperatures between 991 and 1013°C. The depth translated from pressure derived from amphibole-liquid barometers give a shallower crystallization depth range from 19 to 30 km for low Mg# amphiboles, a deeper crystallization depth in the range of 22 to 39 km for high Mg# amphiboles and deepest crystallization depth range of 27 to 41 km for medium Mg# amphiboles. Moreover, a depth from 2 to 20 km could be gained from the plagioclase-liquid thermobarometry which crystallized at 883 to 910°C. It is worth to point out that crystallization depth of clinopyroxene cores is deeper than the Moho in the Chachahuén area, while crystallization depth and temperatures of clinopyroxene rims are consistent with those of high Mg# amphiboles. Consistent temperatures and depths are also found for crystallization of plagioclase and low Mg# amphiboles which intergrow with each other. Thus, a multi-level magma plumbing system began from below the Moho, with a mushy zone in the upper crust, could be suggested to exist beneath the Cerro Bayo laccolith. Evidence from both petrology and geochemistry also indicate fractional crystallization as well as processes of magma mixing and recharge during magma evolution. / Chachahuén火山综合体,包含其最大的侵入体Cerro Bayo岩盘,是位于阿根廷中西部Payenia弧后火山区的一部分。前人研究多着重于岩石学、地球化学和地层学方面,因而针对下伏岩浆涌升系统的研究在该地区极具前瞻性,需要投入更多工作。本文首次尝试对Chachahuén火山复合体应用温压计进行研究,针对斜长石、角闪石和单斜辉石应用了不同的温度计和压力计,以揭示下伏于Cerro Bayo岩盘的岩浆涌升系统中的岩浆演化。 来自Chachahuén火山复合体Cerro Bayo岩盘的英安质-流纹英安质火成岩具有板状-似斑状结构,其斑晶主要为单晶或聚合物形式存在的斜长石、角闪石及单斜辉石。此外,岩盘中还发现具等粒结构的酸性捕虏体的存在。样品中斜长石(An=22-68)主要成分为中长石至拉长石.单斜辉石主要为透辉石和普通辉石,常发育高镁值核部(Mg#=76-84)和低镁值环带(Mg#62-72)。角闪石主要为韭闪石、铁韭闪石、镁绿钙闪石和绿钙闪石,可根据镁值进一步划分为三个组:低镁值组(Mg# = 40-51),低镁值组(Mg# = 52-61)和高镁值组(Mg# = 62-71)。此外,样品中的钛铁氧化物重要为钛磁铁矿(Usp%=0.04-0.54)。 单斜辉石-熔体温压计的结果表明单斜辉石的核部和环带的结晶温度和深度有所差异:核部具有较高的结晶温度(1144-1170 °C)和较深的结晶深度(44-50km),而环带具有较低的结晶温度(973-1002 °C)和较浅的结晶深度(18-31 km)。与角闪石相关的不同温压计给出了类似的结晶温度和压力,其中存在的微小差异均在误差范围内。因此本文将角闪石-熔体温压计的结果作为最终结果,其显示低镁值角闪石具有较低结晶温度(898-931°C),中镁值角闪石具较高结晶温度(951-972°C),而髙镁值角闪石具最高结晶温度(991-1013°C)。角闪石的结晶深度特征有所不同:低镁值角闪石的结晶深度最浅(19-30km),髙镁值角闪石的结晶深度较深(22-39 km),反而中镁值角闪石结晶深度最深(27-41 km)。斜长石-熔体温压计给出的斜长石结晶温度和深度分别为883-910°C及1-20km。 值得一提的是单斜辉石核部的结晶深度位于研究区莫霍面之下。同时,单斜辉石的环带与髙镁值角闪石具有相似的结晶温度和深度,而斜长石及共生的低镁值角闪石具有相似的结晶温度。因此可以推测,Cerro Bayo岩盘之下,发育一个自莫霍面之下开始的多层岩浆上涌系统。而岩石学和地球化学的证据还表明在岩浆发育过程中岩浆分化结晶和岩浆重注和混合作用并存。 / En lakkolit är en grund magmaficka och en vanligt förekommande del av en vulkan, vilken kan bilda en länk mellan djupa magmatiska aktiviteter och vulkanutbrott. Forskning om kompositionen och bildandet av grunda magmafickor kan hjälpa till att öka förståelsen om geologiska faror och naturresurser. Vid Cerro Bayo exponeras en grund magmakammare vilken utgör en del av Chachahuén vulkankomplexet i Argentina. Det här projektet fokuserar på det magmatiska lagringssystemet och magmautvecklingen vid Cerro Bayo. Magmasammansättningen och magmakammarens förhållanden såsom tryck, temperatur och vattenhalt samt vattensystemets struktur är viktiga faktorer som styr magmatiska processer. För att förstå magmautvecklingen under Cerro Bayo inleddes projektet med en kompositionsanalys av bergprover och mineral. Därefter genomfördes termobarometrisk modellering för att bestämma temperatur- och tryckförhållandena för kristalliseringen av mineraler i det magmatiska systemet. Resultaten av modelleringen tyder på att ett magmatiskt rörsystem av flera nivåer existerar under Cerro Bayo lakkoliten. Det djupaste magmamagasinet ligger på 44-50 km och når upp till 22-41 km i nedre jordskorpan, medan de grunda reservoarerna av magma ligger på ett djup av 2-20 km i övre jordskorpan som slutligen når den grunda magmafickan. Vidare indikerar analysen av mineralstruktur och mineralkemi processer av fraktionerad kristallisering samt påfyllning och blandning av magma under magmautvecklingen. Magman genomgick fraktionerad kristallisering under rörelser uppåt från de djupaste magmakammarna. Magmans temperatur varierar från högre än 1100 ° C till ~ 900 ° C. Ansamlingar av magma fortsatte att fylla på magmamagasin i nedre och övre jordskorpan. Blandning av magma inträffade när en ansamling varmare magma rörde sig från nedre till övre jordskorpreservoarer och påverkade såväl migrering av magma som placeringen av Cerro Bayo lakkoliten
106

新紀實視野論教育美學三性:神經性、藝術性與靈性 / On the three human characteristics of educational aesthetics from new documentary Lens: neurological, artistic and spiritual

林美玲, Lin, Mei Lin Unknown Date (has links)
「當代的教育有被多數人當成一項藝術來實踐嗎?我們的教育有美嗎?教育如何成人之美?我們又如何觀看教育之美?」本研究採用藝術家、教師與教育研究者三位一體的研究取徑a/r/tography(art-based forms of educational inquiry)並混合多元研究方法、跨領域理論交互辯證以及表達性藝術實踐行動,旨在試圖超越目前科學家、藝術家、心理分析學家與教育家各自觀看世界的方式。本研究戮力創新教育美學研究取徑,以跨領域對話回應研究提問。 本研究借喻近代攝影史上最重要的變革演化:新紀實(The New Documentary),將其預設並倡議為一種後現代背景下之教育美學的多元視野(長鏡頭),以做為「教育的生命(神經性)、生成(藝術性)、生態(靈性)」的觀看之道。研究者並創作一系列新紀實攝影作品,期以多元真相涵化單一紀實的缺陷,改以不完美的長鏡頭與檔案的中性特質,一方面認清教育紀實的虛妄無明,另一方面則從教育的限制裡生出另隻眼。 教育美學所揭示的實踐智慧,大多來自「人如何描述眼前的世界」,故本研究深入梳理近二十年的神經科學對於視覺腦(visual brain)與靈性冥想(meditation)活動的研究成果,探究藝術家的實踐歷程以及進行藝術評論文本分析,並依多年田野經驗重新設計了一系列合作式彩繪曼陀羅(Cooperative Mandala Coloring)表達性藝術活動,以求能更充份反映榮格學派(Jungian Psychology)之共時性(synchronicity)理論與推演新時代靈性生態觀點,最終援引本質直觀的現象學(phenomenology)進行詮釋。 本研究成果特別關注青少年處於神經美學、藝術實踐與靈性成長之間精神流變(spirit flux)歷程,建議首先提供真誠友善的安全空間(safe space)、引入神馳(flow)的靈性體驗、以藝術活動滿足個體化的表達性需求(expressed needs)、在人我關係中創造利他的美感經驗。新紀實視野下的後現代教育美學倡議「自我陶養」、「德美一致」與「三性一體」,教育必需讓人有力量、有光芒、有夢想,始能真正啟動教育最美的樣子。 / This study borrows ‘the New Documentary’, the most important evolution in the photography history, as a metaphor to presuppose and advocate ‘the Lens’ as a diverse vision of education aesthetics under its post-modern context. It is utilized as a way to perceive the life (Neurological), the formation (Artistic), and ecology (Spiritual) of education. In this study, a series of the New Documentary work has been created. Two decades’ research on visual brain and meditation in neuroscience has been reviewed. The researcher also inquired into the artists’ journey of praxis and criticized numerous art reviews. Moreover, a series of Cooperative Mandala Coloring work has been redesigned based on the researcher’s years of practical teaching experience. This Cooperative Mandala Coloring, an expressive artistic activity, is adopted in present study to reflect Jungian Psychology’s theory of synchronicity, deduce the spiritual and ecological perspectives of new age, and interpret the phenomenology. The results of the present study particularly focus on adolescents’ spirit flux in neuro-aesthetics, art praxis, and spiritual development. The researcher proposes friendly safe space and spiritual experience in flow. It is also suggested that young individual’s expressed needs be fulfilled through artistic activities and altruistic aesthetic experience be created through relationships with others.
107

米国における富の移転課税 / ベイコク ニオケル トミ ノ イテン カゼイ

佐古 麻理, Mari Sako 20 March 2015 (has links)
米国における富の移転課税制度とその課税根拠論について検討し,その検討結果を踏まえて,今後のわが国における富の移転課税制度のあり方について考察した。本研究の主な検討課題は,(1)課税制度の歴史的展開,(2)実体法としての連邦遺産税,贈与税および世代跳躍移転税の検討,(3)課税根拠論,である。本研究により,米国における富の移転課税は,税法独自の定義と概念に基づいて法が構築されていることが明らかとなった。 / The wealth transfer taxation in the United States of America was studied to clarify the legal characteristics in the tax system. The study is composed of a history of federal estate, gift, and generation-skipping taxes, current legal aspects of those taxations, and the rationale for the taxations. The characteristic of the legal aspects in the wealth transfer taxation in the nation is to tax a right and competence for a wealth. The theory of the taxation would be important issues in Japan. / 博士(法学) / Doctor of Laws / 同志社大学 / Doshisha University
108

生を縁取る言葉の居場所 : 戦後沖縄における「島ぐるみ」土地闘争の再検討 / セイ オ フチドル コトバ ノ イバショ : センゴ オキナワ ニオケル シマグルミ トチ トウソウ ノ サイケントウ / 生を縁取る言葉の居場所 : 戦後沖縄における島ぐるみ土地闘争の再検討

岡本 直美, Naomi Okamoto 21 March 2021 (has links)
本論文は、沖縄戦後史研究において、復帰運動や反戦平和運動の前史と位置づけられてきた伊江島土地闘争を研究対象とする。そして、実証性に乏しい伊江島土地闘争の具体像、及び新たな運動像の実証的な考察を目的とした。本研究の特色は二点ある。第一に、従来土着の問題として論じられてきた土地闘争に対して、沖縄住民の流動的な生から再検討したこと。第二に、運動から人びとの「自」を探る視点の再検討として、看過されてきたポスト「島ぐるみ」期の土地闘争を日本本土での学習経験や反戦平和資料館から考察したことである。 / 博士(現代アジア研究) / Doctor of Philosophy in Contemporary Asian Studies / 同志社大学 / Doshisha University
109

論外來政權現象-從政治權威的角度分析

閻亢宗 Unknown Date (has links)
對於「外來政權」的研究,首先遇到的難題是如何避免各自以褊狹角度詮釋的困境,為超脫此一困境,最適宜的作法是採取不同立場者都可以接受的觀點,這是本文採用政治權威途徑研究「外來政權」現象的主要原因。這一方面,漢娜.鄂蘭(Hannah Arendt)對於政治權威演進的描述,提供了有用的切入點,鄂蘭指出「政治權威」觀念起源自柏拉圖(Plato),到古羅馬時期到達概念上的完全發展,但迄馬基維里(Niccolo Machiavelli)權威概念卻出現詮釋上的改變,這個過程給與「外來政權」研究一個有用的啟發。 柏拉圖洞穴論是古希臘權威觀念最充份的說明,他對Idea的置重,及如何將Idea引入洞穴過程的敘述,無異是對外來意識形態進入本土社群遭遇的狀況,及如何克服此一困境的描述,從柏拉圖的進路中,顯示Idea外來意識形態具有靜止性、回溯性與統一性,而要完成外來意識形態在本土社群生根的轉化,最重要的媒介是一個以哲君領導的政權,這個政權就是「外來政權」。為了鞏固政權,柏拉圖主張從教育著手,並利用政治神話強化階級統治,但柏拉圖晚年重新發現法律的整合功能,法律因此也成為外來意識型態統治的有用工具。 相對於外來政權參照對象的柏拉圖,馬基維里則是對於古典傳統與外來意識進行反叛,馬基維里代表的是「本土政權」的觀點,他要創建新的國家,開創新的歷史,也就是將國家視為最高價質的「國家理性」,他將建國與治國重責大任交給了新君主和創建者,但這兩種不同的角色卻可能引發矛盾與衝突。在建國階段,馬基維里雖然訴求除舊佈新式的恐怖統治,但在治國階段,他卻主張共和政體,由此也凸顯出政治的自主性。另外值得注意的是馬基維里對外來意識形態的利用,顯示與外來政權的鬥爭並非只有零和的結局。 柏拉圖與馬基維里的進路,提供台灣「外來政權」現象極有啟發性的反思,包括:一、無論是外來政權或是本土政權的歷史觀都是製造出來的;二、意識形態與烏托邦的互動可以產生正面效果;三、外來政權與本土政權都有英雄崇拜的心理;四、主體性的追求應以個體自主作為國家主體的前提;五、外來與本土的對立造成了一國之內的兩個國家。上述五點正是台灣「外來政權」現象的問題所在。歸結而言,無論外來或本土政權皆只關注「誰來統治」的問題,這一方面,霍布斯對「外來政權」角色的特殊界定與對個體價值的重視等見解,或許提供了可望解決此一困境的出路。
110

台指選擇權之市場指標實證分析

吳建民, Wu,Jian-Min Unknown Date (has links)
本研究有系統地收集了2003年8月12日到2005年9月30日止共495個交易日的台指期貨、選擇權市場裡P/C量、P/C倉、隱含波動率(AIV)、不同天數的歷史波動率等收盤資料,進行這些因素與行情走勢間的關係,以及因素彼此的互動性。結果證實分析台指選擇權指標是需要區分金融重大衝擊前後期間,以及區分漲勢、跌勢、盤整的各期間,各期間的選擇權指標均會有不同意涵。 本論文證實使用結構轉換的Chow-ARMA(2,1)模型可能比較符合模擬指數 實況,且GARCH(1,1) 模型也很適合描述台期指貨波動度預測力。在選擇權指標方面:P/C量與AIV與台指期貨呈現負相關,P/C倉與台指期貨正相關。其中以P/C倉對指數漲跌的影響程度最大、P/C量的影響程度次之、AIV影響程度最小。若把隱含波動率區分成買權與賣權之各個波動率更有效地預測行情走勢,在大跌期間的買賣權隱含波動率更能表現出優越的預測能力,其中前兩期的賣權隱含波動率(PIV)更是效率性指標, 實證結果使用20天的歷史波動率比較能貼近選擇權市場的變化,跟過去教 科書慣用的90天不同。若比較歷史波動率與隱含波動率間的關係,結論是當「大跌期」歷史波動率大於買權隱含波動率(CIV)時,買權是會被低估的,其他的各種假設條件均不成立。理由有二:一是市場效率性決定了是否可使用隱含波動率與歷史波動率之間的高低關係。二是「大跌時期」相對於「大漲時期」的市場資訊被反應的更敏銳,而在「大跌時期」的賣權價格反應比買權價格反應更快速敏銳。 本研究推論的Chow-ARMA(2,1) 台指期貨模型、GARCH(1,1) 波動率模型、P/C量-P/C倉-AIV的多變數模型、FMA20/XIV模型等等在研判指數變化上具有參考價值,進一步均可以做為選擇權操作策略參考依據之一。

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