二十一世紀，水資源問題已經成為國際社會共同關注的焦點。它不僅關係到地球生態系統的維繫和人類社會的可持續發展，還對當代國際關係產生廣泛深遠的影響。尤其是水資源匱乏地區，水資源問題已成為影響該地區國家間關係的重要因素，甚至對地區的和平與發展穩定構成威脅。 受地理因素影響，中亞地區的水資源多為跨境水體，造成了該地區水資源開發主體的多樣性。各國對水資源長期不合理的開發利用，產生了一系列的浪費及污染問題，引發了許多國際爭端。為此，中亞各國簽訂一系列雙邊、多邊協議，試圖通過國際合作來解決跨境水資源問題，然而卻無法形成一個長期有效的合作機制。圍繞國際水資源的利用、開發、管理而產生的爭端依然困擾著中亞。 本文首先是闡述中亞水資源概況及開發歷程，探索中亞水資源問題產生的根源。其次，從中亞各國之間採取的政策互動入手，分析探討中亞在國際水資源開發中的「合作困境」。最後借鑒國際跨境水資源利用現狀與趨勢，分析構建有助於目標實現的制度安排，從而提出中亞國際水資源合作的解決途徑。通過構建切實發揮效能的區域水資源合作機制，推動中亞各國內部實現更好發展，同時促進整個中亞及鄰國、周邊地區的穩定發展。 / In the 21st century, the issue of water resources has become the focus of common concern of the international community. It is not only related to the maintenance of the earth's ecosystem and the sustainable development of human society, but also has a far-reaching impact on contemporary international relations. Especially in water-scarce areas, water resources has become an important factor affecting relations among countries in the region, and even poses a threat to regional peace and development and stability. Due to geographical factors, water resources in Central Asia are mostly transboundary water bodies, resulting in the diversification of water resources development in the region. The unreasonable exploitation and utilization of water resources in a long period of time has brought about a series of waste and pollution problems, which has caused many international disputes. To this end, the Central Asian countries signed a series of bilateral and multilateral agreements, trying to solve international water resources through cross-border issues, but can not form a long-term effective cooperation mechanism. Disputes over the use, development and management of international water resources continue to haunt Central Asia. This paper firstly elaborates the general situation and development process of water resources in Central Asia, and explores the root causes of water resources problems in Central Asia. Secondly, this paper analyzes the interaction dilemma of Central Asia in international water resources development from the policy interaction among the countries of Central Asia. Finally, it draws lessons from the current situation and trend of international transboundary water resources utilization, analyzes and constructs the institutional arrangements that will help the target to achieve, and then proposes the solutions to the international water resources cooperation in Central Asia. Through the construction of effective regional water resources cooperation mechanism, it can promote better development within the Central Asian countries, and stimulate the stable development of the whole Central Asia, the neighboring countries and even the surrounding areas.

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新的俄羅斯聯邦成立以來，不論俄美或者是俄歐的經貿關係都遠比俄中的經貿關係來得重要，但是，俄羅斯政府卻一再地透過公開宣示要盡力發展同中國間的經貿關係，並且雙方的領導人、政府高層每年還定期會晤來商討相關的事宜。所以，俄中經貿關係的研究就顯得有其重要性與時代性，尤其是俄羅斯聯邦成立之初，在國外不僅面對西方國家有意的圍堵；國內還面臨了嚴重的經濟挫敗與政治亂局，使得俄羅斯必須選擇其他對她可能有幫助的國家，而這也突顯了俄羅斯在俄中經貿關係的發展中是扮演著主導的地位。因此，本論文旨在探討俄羅斯內外在的環境因素對俄中經貿關係的影響，並且從俄羅斯的觀點來探討她的的決策過程。 　　本論文認為：獨立後的俄羅斯所面臨的國際局勢已非過去兩極化的國際體系，在無法完全得知西方國家對於新的俄羅斯所採取的態度情況下，俄羅斯唯有在維護其國家尊嚴與利益的前提，選擇可以令其經濟復甦的政策。由此原始命題可以演繹下列三個邏輯命題：（一）面對美國主導的北約東擴的潛在性威脅，以及西方國家對於經援俄羅斯的態度總是百般刁難、口惠而實不至，造成俄羅斯聯合與她友好的中國，並調整其決策目標取向。（二）在經濟改革上遭到了重大的打擊，並因為外交上的的挫敗所引起的政治上的鬥爭，使得俄羅斯領導階層意識到必須要改變其原本合作的對象，轉而與有共同利益的中國發展政治與經濟的關係。（三）現實上，西方國家已非完全可以信任的合作夥伴，所以，俄羅斯便傾向於選擇在歷史上與情感上較能與自己合作的中國。 　　上述的三個子命題構成本論文的主要核心論點，第壹章：為緒論，說明研究動機與目的、研究範圍、文獻回顧、研究途徑與架構。第貳章：理性抉擇之檢析，這一章主要為討論理性概念之發展與在「理性抉擇典範」下發展的幾個主要的理論，以及理性抉擇在國際關係上的分析運用。第參章：為國際環境因素的分析，這一章主要為分析俄羅斯在這一段期間所面臨到的國際環境因素對她所造成的影響，包括經濟、政治與戰略等層面的衝擊。第肆章：為國內環境因素的分析，這一章主要為分析俄羅斯在這一段期間所面臨到的國內環境因素對她所造成的影響，包括經濟改革挫敗、政治上府會的鬥爭與俄屬遠東地區開發等因素的互動關係，第伍章：為俄中經貿關係發展的前景，這一章主要為探討前面兩章對於俄中經貿關係發展所造成的影響，並對於俄中經貿關係發展的前景做了一番期許與建議。第陸章結論。 / Even though Russian government always openly declarethat they will develop trade relationship with China, and both of their leaders set a date to discuss thease matters. Since Russian Federation were founded, Russian-U.S. and Russian-E.U.’s trade relationship were been far more important than Russian-Sino trade relation. So, research of Russian-Sino trade relationship has it’s significance and urgency. Especially when Russian Federation were established. Externally the Federation face with western countries’ block, internally, they face serious economical failures and chaotic political situations, which force Russia to search for potential aid. Such situation appear that Russia play the leading role in Russian-Sino trade relation. Therefore, this thesis is purporting the discussion of Russia’s internal and external conditions and it’s influence on Russian-Sino trade relation. Also from Russia’s point of view to discuss their decision-making process. 　　Unlike the past polarization world, this thesis consider that after Russia’s independence, Russia faced a new international situation. And unknown to western countries’ policy, Russia have to preserve their national majesty and interests, to choose relevent policy in order to revive their country. From this original topic, I’ll deduction the following three logically propositions: (1) Due to U.S. led NATO expansion eastward, and western countries’ unfriendly manner to aid Russia. Russia ally with their friendly neighborhood-China. Then, Russia will adjust their decision objective. (2) Russia suffered serious economic downturn during “Shock Therapy”, and political conflict caused by Russia’s diplomatic failures. Russia’s leading class realized that they must change strategic partners. Providing political and economical relationship with China would be a better choose for Russia, as they have common interests. (3) Russia tend to choose China, due to historical and emotional factors, as they can't completely trust western world. 　　These three logically propositions above are core topic of this thesis. In accordance with these three points, the thesis will be discussed in six chapters. Chapter one, introduction, it’ll explain the purpose, scope and approaches of this study. Chapter two, an analysis of rational choice, will discuss the concept of ration and some major theories under “rational choice paragon” which analyze on international affairs. Chapter three an analysis of international conditions. This chapter will discuss economical, political, strategic problem it given the change in international environment. Chapter four an analysis of domestic environment. This chapter analyze the changing domestic conditions including failure of its economical reform and political instability. Chapter five outlook of Russian-Sino trade relationship, this chapter provide an insight outlook of potential development of Russian-Sino trade relations. Chapter six conclusion.

毛澤東的文藝思想主要包含了馬克思主義,中國傳統文化,以及二十世紀中 國革命思潮三個來源,這三者之間並非全無扞格,但是毛澤東卻是採取一種 相當實用的態度來處理這些不同的思維.其間的判準並不全是基於推動革 命事業的需求,還包括了毛澤東相當個人化的忖度與反應,包括他的世界 觀,他的欣賞情趣,以及他對權力地位的佔有欲望.這使得在毛澤東文藝思 想宰制下的中國文藝歷史,呈現出一種多變的,不穩定的,壓抑且扭曲的面 貌.除了歷史情境的因素,以及與毛澤東個人因素之間的互動探討之外,筆 者也指出了馬克思主義文藝觀演變之下,文藝的革命性被政治實踐要求扭 曲,以及革命文藝對於文藝歷史扭曲的結構性因素.於是,文藝的實用性從 事實認定轉變為本質認定,其極至的結果,使得文藝淪為政治的宣傳工具. 中共在新時期主導中國大陸的文藝思想,與毛澤東文藝思想的最大區別,在 於知識份子的地位從工農兵文藝原則下的尷尬地位解放出來,這對於中國 大陸文藝的多元發展,起著根本的正面作用.但無論如何,文藝的首要價值 仍是受到非文藝的因素決定,在中共政權之下,加在文藝工作者身上的束縛 仍是存在的.

當今現實主義理論學派正面臨著一種淺碟化的危機，伴隨而來的是現實主義深遠的傳統根基遭受簡化以及忽視。本文企圖藉由重新檢驗現實主義傳統的古典文獻，提出在現實主義中的許多被忽略的問題。本文重新定位與評析現實主義之主要理論傳統，包括修昔底德傳統、奧古斯丁傳統、馬基維利傳統、以及霍布斯傳統等四大傳統。此外，本文亦將討論上述四項傳統理論的遺緒。吾人以為，當今現實主義學派的主流理論途徑，存在著嚴重的內在邏輯問題，同時這些問題影響著當代的國關研究。主流學者過度關注於特定版本的霍布斯傳統，因而輕視其它於此理論學派中同等重要的途徑之可能性。同時，透過本文對於現實主義理論傳統多元性與豐富性之展現，本文也指出部分擁簇常識現實主義(commonsense Realism)的學者們，事實上已模糊化現實主義的理論本質。針對上述各種內在的理論問題，作者冀望以本文採一種重新詮釋、重新定位現實主義理論根基的途徑來展現並反省。 / Political Realism is suffering from a crisis of superficialization. The profound traditional roots of Political Realism are being simplified or ignored. This thesis attempts to re-examine the classical texts of Political Realism’s traditions and thus raise questions about some problems in this theoretical programme. Four major traditions which are the Thucydidesian, the Augustinian, the Machiavellian, and the Hobbesian tradition will be re-envisioned and re-appreciated, and their legacies to modern Realists will also be expounded. As this thesis would show, serious inherent logical problems exist in the dominant theoretical approach to Political Realism, which has become pertinent to international relations theory study. Mainstream scholars put too much undue attention on a certain version of the Hobbesian tradition and thus overlook other possibilities which are equally important in formatting this vast theoretical school. By showing the richness and diversity of Political Realism’s tradition, this thesis also suggests that the nature of this theoretical programme is being obfuscated by commonsense scholars. All these inherent theoretical problems will be exhibited in this thesis with an approach to re-appreciate and re-envision the traditional roots of Political Realism.

於1991年底蘇聯解體後正式獨立的白俄羅斯共和國，其與俄羅斯之間特殊的地緣政治因素、經濟上的依存關係、相近的種族文化與歷史傳統，促使兩國建立相較於獨立國家國協（Содружество Независимых Государств, СНГ/ Commonwealth of Independent States, CIS）更為緊密的政治、經濟、軍事、外交組織，亦即使兩國走向整合的白俄羅斯─俄羅斯聯盟（Союз Беларуси и России/ Union State of Russia and Belarus）。自1996年4月始，時任白俄羅斯總統的盧卡申科（Лукашенко, Александр Григорьевич, Alexander Grigoryevich Lukashenko）與前俄羅斯總統葉爾欽（Ельцин, Борис Николаевич, Boris Nikolayevich Yeltsin），就俄白聯盟簽署一系列協議，諸如《俄白共同體組織條約》（Договор об образовании Сообщества Беларуси и России）、《俄白聯盟條約》（Договор о Союзе Беларуси и России）、《關於進一步整合宣言》（Декларация о дальнейшем единении России и Беларуси）、《兩國公民權利平等條約》（Договор между Российской Федерацией и Республикой Беларусь о равных правах граждан）、《建立國家聯盟經濟共同體協議》（Соглашение о создании равных условий субъектам хозяйствования государств-союзников）和《建立聯盟國家條約》（Договор о создании Союзного государства）等，朝俄白整合目標邁進的條約。 然俄白聯盟自成立之初至今，負面批評不斷，且除了在軍事同盟上兩國具有較為成功的碩果外，其他領域均無突破性的進展。此外，俄白雙方兩次的油氣之爭與白俄羅斯兩次經濟危機俄羅斯態度不明的事件，使俄白整合蒙上陰影。另一方面，歐盟與北約的東擴，明顯以白俄羅斯、烏克蘭與喬治亞等前蘇聯衛星國為主要拉攏目標，在此國際因素影響下，如何解釋俄白雙方政府仍決定繼續俄白聯盟，是為此論文關注的焦點，並試圖以新古典現實主義的角度，由個案研究的途徑，分析解釋並預測俄白聯盟的發展。 / After the Soviet Union disintegrated, post-communist countries in East-Central Europe were either divided (the USSR, Czechoslovakia, and Yugoslavia) or were reunited (the German Democratic Republic with Federal Republic of Germany). Meanwhile, these countries developed different patterns of association. Some of the newly independent states joined the European Union and NATO, while others formed the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) at the collapse of the USSR. Six of the former Soviet member states established the Collective Security Organization. Five of them established the Eurasian Economic Community. Four of them—Belarus, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Ukraine—formed the Single Economic Space. Among these nations, Belarus and Russia have built the closet relationship, first with a “Community” and then a “Union” in 1997. Belarus sits between Europe and Russia, but history shows its ambiguous leaning towards the latter. The country had been incorporated in the Russian Empire for two hundred years, and later also in the USSR. Belarus was also the Slavic republic that supported the USSR the most its the referendum on a “renewed union” held in March 1991. Furthermore, the referendum in November 1996 reconfirms the Russia-leaned stand of Belarus, which differs from other former Soviet member states in Middle-East Europe. Despite conflicts between the two countries and the political advancement from the West, Belarus and Russia still tend to compose Belarus-Russia Union on international platforms. This research focuses upon several analytic factors from the viewpoint of Neoclassical Realism, including ethnology, culture, geopolitics, economy, security, political interests, international environment, and leadership factors to examine the relationship between Belarus and Russia.

論文摘要 本文主要之研究在於檢驗東協區域論壇是否具有影響亞太區域安全之效能。首先藉由國際關係理論對於「安全」的闡述，筆者運用新現實主義與新自由制度主義的安全觀與對國際建制的看法，來評析東協區域論壇（ASEAN Retional Forum, ARF）對亞太安全的影響力。隨著國際關係理論的檢視過程中得知，新現實主義與新自由制度主義皆認為東協區域論壇在穩定亞太區域和平與穩定的效用不大。 其次，透過Andreas Hasenclever、Peter Mayer與Volker Rittberger在 Theories of International Regimes文章中所提出關於國際建制（International Regimes）評定的指標，其以新自由制度主義的觀點就（1）建制的「效率」（Effectiveness）指標－建制達成目標與貫徹意志的能力、對成員的影響力，以及決議的拘束力等方面；兼以（2）建制的「彈性－堅實」（Resilience / Robustness）指標－東協區域論壇對於現實事件、衝突的解決能力與成效，藉由國際建制的角度來分析東協區域論壇在建制上的完備與否，來評價東協區域論壇是否合乎所謂區域性「安全」機制的標準。 經由國際建制指標的檢視結果得知，不論在「效率」指標或「彈性－堅實」指標，皆驗證出東協區域論壇是個不健全的國際建制，並非所謂的區域性安全機制，對亞太區域安全的影響力也有限。 再者，經由對於亞太地區的主要衝突點－朝鮮半島核武問題、台海危機以及南海主權爭議等事件的討論，檢視東協區域論壇對於事件的處理、事件所做出的決議以及針對事件所發表的聲明，來評析論壇是否具有解決亞太衝突事件之功能。研究發現，東協區域論壇僅能對於衝突事件做出宣示性質的聲明，不具拘束力的決議，無法要求成員國自制，也使得論壇無法做出有效的解決，更失去了處理亞太區域安全事務的能力。 最終，歸結出東協區域論壇的缺失，以及無法有效發揮其安全建制的原因，筆者認為東協區域論壇最主要的缺失在於「制度化程度太低」以及「決議拘束力不足」，因而導致論壇缺乏安全建制的功能、議題無法被普遍討論、對衝突事件缺乏解決能力以及信心建立措施無法順利推展等問題。透過上述之討論，找出提升東協區域論壇解決事件效能之辦法，俾使其發揮安全建制之功能。 關鍵字詞：東協區域論壇、新現實主義、新自由制度主義、國際建制

本文試圖為當前現實主義中，國際政治理論發展的問題與瓶頸，作一概略的檢視、提出可能的倡議，並進行實證研究加以檢驗。本文發現攻勢與守勢現實主義之爭，是理論發展上不必要的誤會，現實主義內的理論爭議，其實仍是分析層次的問題：單元層級的解釋混亂繁瑣而難以驗證，但體系層級基於權力分配結構的解釋，卻也不盡圓滿。因此，本文嘗試在現實主義的物質能力傳統中，對體系穩定的變動提出「體系穩定的互動解釋」與「體系穩定的結構解釋」之新嘗試，以求在名稱上貼近解釋倡議的實質內容，跳脫過去攻勢、守勢現實主義理論名稱劃分的漩渦，並作為未來建立國際政治理論的可能選擇。 本文指出，互動能力的概念，不僅是新的解釋來源，也是界定體系範疇的前提，未來的國際政治理論應利用攻守平衡的解釋邏輯，在結構之外的互動能力解釋來源中，開發科技與地理等兩項解釋變數；並發掘結構解釋來源中，絕對的權力分配作解釋變數，再分別從此導出推論；而有關穩定的意涵，也應從戰爭的避免，擴大為對和平的威脅。本文的實證研究範圍訂在一六四八年至今的歐洲乃至全球體系，本文將先分別呈現各項解釋變數在各個時代的變化，以及依據推論所應出現的結果，再對照實際上體系穩定的變異狀態，以檢驗各項推論。整體而言，本文所進行的實證研究大致上是獲得了相當的正面結果。 / The purposes of this thesis are: examining the current obstructions in Realist theory of international politics, proposing alternatives, and conducting empirical studies. The thesis finds that, the debates between Offensive and Defensive Realism are unnecessary. The level of analysis problem is still crucial: unit level explanations are complex and hard to test, but system level explanations base on the structure of relative power distribution are not satisfactory either. Thus, to get rid of the offensive and defensive labeling, the thesis proposes two alternatives within the Realist material tradition: “interaction” and “structure” explanations on the stability of the international system. The thesis argues that, interaction capacity is both a source of explanation and the precondition of a system. In the future, the theory of international politics should take offense-defense balance as logic of explanation to explore technology, geography, and absolute power distribution as independent variables. In addition, the concept of stability as a dependent variable should also be expanded. Stability is not merely the avoidance of war, but the threat to peace. The scope of the qualitative empirical studies are European and global international systems from 1648 to present. In general, the thesis finds rather positive results to support the interaction and structure explanations.

南海爭端近幾年區域緊張情勢不斷升高。中國已將南海列為「核心利益」，而美國則將南海視為「國家利益」。基此，這顯現中美兩國在南海議題的積極作為，雙方在其處理南海議題的戰略架構下，兩國主要舉措均在外交與軍事層面上針鋒相對。外交上中國以「睦鄰外交」，穩定周邊局勢，美國則運用「前沿部署外交」拉攏東亞各國；兩國對於東協國家的態度將更為重視，亦是雙方外交戰略的重點所在，渠等均希望藉由東協國家的支持在南海議題上更有話語權。而軍事上中國以「反介入/區域拒止」的軍事作為防止域外國家介入其主權議題，而美國研擬「空海一體戰」除運用其強大的軍事科技實力外，欲結合各盟邦的力量，與其一同牽制中國的軍事行動。 綜上，在中美兩國相互的競逐作為下，佐以米爾斯海默之攻勢現實主義觀點，檢視中美兩國在南海之未來互動關係。潛在霸權國中國擁有眾多的人口與快速成長的經濟，並在南海整軍經武，試圖強化與東協甚或是東亞諸國的經貿互賴程度，且於處理亞洲事務中將美國排除在外，以取代美國擔任亞洲關鍵角色，尤其在南海的不妥協性，顯現出中國在此區域的主導性。另外，既存霸權國美國面對中國綜合國力崛起，則扮演「離岸平衡者」，融合「推諉卸責」、「均勢」之概念，拉攏東協及日本、印度等相關國家，共同制衡南海區域的權力失衡狀態，鞏固霸權地位。中美雙方皆將南海問題的層級提高，並且均欲爭取南海區域之領導地位，因此兩國在此區域未來將趨於競爭關係。 / The tension caused by the South China Sea dispute has been rising in recent years. China has listed the South China Sea as her “core interest”, while the U.S. considers the South China Sea as “national interest”. This, shows that both China and the U.S. have been acting aggressively on the South China Sea issue. Both sides, under their own strategic frames in dealing with the issues, square off over each other’s diplomatic and military acts. Diplomatically, China practices “Good Neighboring Diplomacy” to stabilize the relations with her surrounding neighbors, while the U.S. applies “Forward-Deployed Diplomacy” to bring together each country in East Asia to fight against China. The two countries value the attitude of the ASEAN members more than ever, and this is also the main focus of their diplomatic strategies; both desire to have more say on the South China Sea issue by gaining support from members of the ASEAN. In terms of military operation, China practices “Anti-Access/Area-Denial” to prevent other countries from intervening her sovereignty issues, while the U.S. crafts “Air-Sea Battle”, in which the U.S. applies her devastating military and technology power, and combines the force of each ally to rein China’s military operation. All in all, with the China-U.S. competition as the backdrop, and by referring to John Mearsheimer’s offensive realism, this study examines the future Sino-American relations in the South China Sea. China, as a potential hegemon, possesses a large population and a fast-growing economy; the state also conducts military operations in the South China Sea, with a view to consolidating the mutual economic and trade dependence of China and the ASEAN, even countries in East Asia. Moreover, China excludes the U.S. from dealing with tasks in Asia for the purpose of replacing the U.S. as the Asia’s key player. China’s intransigency in the South China Sea particularly reveals her dominance in the region. Besides, in facing China’s rise in all aspects, the U.S., as the current hegemon, plays the role of “The Off-shore Balancer”. By mixing "Buck-Passing" with "Balancing", the U.S. brings together countries involved in the issue such as the members of ASEAN, Japan, and India to collectively rein the power imbalance in the South China Sea, so as to consolidate her dominance. Both China and the U.S. have raised the level of the South China Sea issue, and have scrambled to gain the dominance in the South China Sea. Therefore, in the future, the two countries will become more of two competitors in this region.

自2009年起，美國透過一系列政策宣示、外交行動施行重返亞洲政策，在涉及七個聲索方的南海主權爭端之中，美國的介入將會為難解的南海爭端增添更加複雜的因子。南海爭端的動態之所以受到關注，除了中共持續增長的綜合國力、美國將焦點投注至亞洲區域、防止潛在競爭對手產生的策略，南海爭端實際上為中、美角力的縮影。未來南海問題的發展，將可能影響區域、乃至國際的和平，必須持續關注。 中國所面對的國際環境正在轉變，此將影響其對於國家利益的認知與選擇，本文將以新現實與新自由主義的論爭，檢視近年美國重返亞洲後造成南海爭端再起的案例，並探討中共參與國際建制的利益認知、瞭解中共在冷戰後的多極化國際社會中的相對定位。 本文將分文三大部分：第一部分為國際關係理論與概念分析，將從國際關係理論與國際建制的探討，到中共參與國際安全建制的理論與概況，再進一步聚焦於中共的南海政策與主張；第二部分介紹南海爭端中其他聲索方之主張，以及各聲索方與中共在南海互動歷程，並探討為處理南海爭端而建立的安全建制演變與成效；第三部分將探討國際情勢的變化對國家外交政策的影響，以南海爭端為例，說明美國因素對中共外交利益視角造成的影響。 本文所欲探討的問題為：第一、中共為何願意採取相較溫和的「擱置爭議、共同開發」政策？又，在中共積極塑造負責任大國及營造友好周邊環境的目標下，為何「南海行為準則」的談判進度遲滯？第二、從國際關係理論研究南海問題，探討兩新學派之中何者較具解釋力？第三、國際建制是否有助於國際合作？最後，針對南海爭端對我國的啟示，也將在本文末章進行討論。