台灣由於經濟持續成長，民間累積可觀之消費潛力，不動產開發業者，因應政府部門以工商綜合區之政策法規，解決服務業土地取得問題之趨勢，掀起一股購物中心開發熱潮。 然而，率先於1999年7月4日開幕營運之台茂購物中心，其經營績效〈營收及淨利〉並不如預期，而且主力商店萬客隆，在開幕一年後，亦以特易購〈TESCO〉取代之；另外，同年開幕之環亞購物廣場，亦是將原百貨公司經營，更新為購物中心型態之先趨業者，其高樓層商店組合〈5、6、7樓〉之經營績效〈空置率達30%〉並不理想。上述代表著購物中心熱潮開發先趨之兩個案，何以會產生如此之績效落差？有何理論分析邏輯，可以用來合理解釋這些現況結果？ 本研究以不動產開發經營者之觀點，透過文獻探討、個案訪談，整合下列理論基礎，使成為購物中心定位之策略分析架構，用以解釋上述個案產生開發經營落差之原因。 一、 商圈市場調查分析： 二、 策略定位： 三、 服務核心、零售傳遞系統、經營績效： 四、 商店組合之吸引力與排斥力： 購物中心定位之策略分析，首先探討購物中心之零售與不動產開發之產業本質，經由策略定位之分析架構，以及零售產業之服務核心、零售傳遞系統、經營績效之理論邏輯與商店組合之吸引力與排斥力之搭配考量，架構出釐清購物中心業者，在開發過程之價值鏈作為與經營績效間的合理邏輯關係。 基於新建之購物中心係一龐大之工程營建專案之觀點，本研究亦以計畫評核術〈PERT〉之網路要徑作業觀念，融合訪談台茂與環亞兩個案之內容，並依據上述購物中心定位之策略分析架構之理念，整理出29項相關之作業模式，作為落實策略分析理念之實際執行作業規範。 藉由本研究之購物中心定位之策略分析與作業模式，開發與經營業者，將更能釐清開發作為與經營績效之關係，並且提供其結構清楚完整之購物中心開發作業參考依循模式。

近年來，社會經濟進步，對「不動產估價」之需求日益殷切，例如投資房地產、利用房地產來進行借貸行為等各項需要，在在皆得依靠不動產估價的技術，因此提升了社會上對不動產估價的重視。而在今日科技如此蓬勃發展的資訊時代，若能將不動產估價的技術與電腦的數位技術相互結合，藉由電腦的強大計算能力與快速的回應能力，相信必能提升不動產估價的技術及準確度。 　所以本研究致力於將不動產估價與電腦科技相結合，期望能提升不動產估價的準確度，除了利用其強大的計算能力之外，本研究更進一步地將不動產估價動作與地理資訊系統ＧＩＳ（Geographic Information System）相結合，利用ＧＩＳ強大的地理資料處理能力，希望能將不動產估價的技術提昇至更高的境界。 　本研究的研究過程為先對不動產估價之理論與方法進行研究，並尋找出不動產估價時的程序及其所需要考量的事項，在整理融會之後，再進一步地結合ＧＩＳ，以建構出一個以ＧＩＳ為基礎的不動產估價系統。且每當一估價個案完成，系統便自動將此筆估價個案之資料與結果回饋（輸入）給系統，成為一筆新增之買賣實例，如此一來，買賣實例資料庫將會愈來愈大，愈來愈完整，也將會使得系統的估價能力愈準確、可信度愈高。 因為在台灣不動產估價已經逐漸受到社會各界，例如銀行、租賃公司和房屋仲介公司等的重視，所以本研究企圖整理出各種常用估價模式及其所需的資料，並結合地理資訊系統（Geographic Information System，GIS）的技術，建構出一個以ＧＩＳ為基礎的泛用型不動產估價資訊系統之原型，期能藉此提高不動產估價行為的效率與精確度，並希望對ＧＩＳ的應用領域提供一個新的窗口，進而擴大ＧＩＳ的長遠發展。 / Recently, the need for appraisal of real estate is more and more important for people. When we invest the money in the real estate or use real estate to borrow money, we must depend on the technique for appraisal of real estate. Now, we are in the information world. If we can take advantage of the ability of the computer to appraise the real estate, it must be able to promote the technique and accuracy of appraisal in real estate. 　So in this thesis, it was applied to combine the appraisal in real estate and the ability of the computer and it hoped that it could increase the accuracy of appraisal. Besides the computing ability, this thesis wanted to combine the technique GIS (Geographic Information System) and the appraisal in the real estate. It wanted to take advantage of the processing ability in geographic data in GIS to higher the technique in appraising real restate. 　In this thesis, we attempt to arrange some general appraisal models and data the models need and to use the technique of GIS to design a prototype appraisal system. We hope that the system will be able to higher the efficiency and accuracy of appraisal in real estate. And we hope we will create a new way to take advantage of the ability of GIS.

我們利用「台灣地區中老年身心社會生活狀況長期追蹤調查研究」這份資料，以似無關迴歸(Seemingly Unrelated Regression)模型，探討老人的資產持有行為，發現：一般老年人口並不偏好持有股票，持有行為相當少見，但高教育、高所得、都市化地區（尤其是直轄市）的老人，可能分別因為高教育程度、所得效果影響、都市地區資訊流通快速等因素，使得這類型老人明顯較願意持有股票。 另一方面，在台灣，不動產扮演的角色特殊，傳統認為其與家族宗系連結，在持有行為上並非只從風險報酬觀點去看待，通常還與其他考量有關，因此在持有行為上有其特殊模式。 同時，我們也發現，老人婚姻關係的消解(dissolution)，例如離婚/分居，將對資產持有產生負面的財富效果影響，使得這類型老人各項資產的持有都顯著低於已婚/同居的老人；而健康情形越差的老人持有的不動產與存款也越少，應與此類老人有較高的醫療與保健支出，造成負面的財富效果有關。 除此之外，台灣老人平均而言，持有的不動產會隨年紀降低，但持有的存款會隨年紀而上升，主要與台灣老人隨著年紀上升，所得逐漸不足以維生，產生了反儲蓄(dissave)不動產的現象，有所關聯。我們認為台灣確實存在老人「以房養老」的現象。 最後，我們認為很重要的一點是，台灣老人資產的持有行為，並不是使用傳統的風險報酬概念就能解釋，我們必須考量其他可能因素，才能有效分析台灣老人所表現出來的資產持有行為。 / The general elders don’t prefer to hold stocks, but the elders of high-level education, the elders of high-level income and the elders in metropolis are more willing to hold stocks. Besides, the real estate plays a special role. People regard that it is linked up with the family or kindred. We also find out that the dissolution of relationship in elder’s marriage causes negative wealth effect on holding assets. The similar effect exists in much unhealthy elders. The elders hold less real estate as they getting older, but hold more stocks. It might due to that elders dissave their real estate. Finally, besides perspective of risk-reward, it might appropriate that think the behavior of holding assets in other view-points.

市場比較法估價過程需要經比較、分析及調整三階段，而估價師於個別估價應用中因缺乏標準化依據，造成估價過程常被質疑過於主觀且偏重經驗法則，導致估價結果產生因人而異現象。基於此本研究乃建立大量估價模型，運用估價師進行市場比較法行為邏輯，在選取比較案例階段採用明科斯基距離概念，並結合特徵價格理論，建立大量樣本的客觀標準化估價模型。藉由此模型分析，估價師不需要主觀預測，可改善過去估價結果不一致情形，並達到大量估價目的。 透過隨機抽樣的重覆實驗，實證結果發現，以模型的平均百分比預測誤差與命中率比較，整體而言未劃分次市場估價模型皆較劃分次市場準確，且其穩定度亦較高，而劃分次市場較不準確的原因，在於舊市區的表現不穩定，與市郊區的估值表現較差所致。經本研究結果，不論劃分次市場與否，標準化大量估價模型大致上均達到研究預設水準，然劃分次市場模型雖有時較準確但未優於未分區模型甚多，顯示適當劃分次市場可提高準確度，但資料太少時，劃分次市場可能產生統計偏誤問題。 / The process of the market comparative approach includes three stages：comparing ,analyzing and adjusting. Real estate appraisers lack the standardized basis in the individual appraisal application, so they are often challenged by subjectivity and stressing experience, which leads to the phenomenon that appraisal results are always different from person to person. Based on this, our research establishes the automated valuation methods. By applying the appraisers’ behavior in market comparative approach, we use minkowski metric in selecting comparative subject, and associate with hedonic price theory to establish objective standardized real estate appraisal model. By using this model, the appraisers can avoid subjective forecasting, reduce inconsistency, and therefore achieve the goal of mass appraisal. Through the repetition experiment of random sampling, we compare MAPE and Hit-rate between models. The result shows that non-delimited markets are more accurate and stable than delimited markets. The reason for this is the instability caused by older district of the city and bad performance in the suburban area. After these findings, no matter delimited market or not, the standardized mass appraisal model achieved the research standard we had set in advance. Sometimes the model of delimited market is more accurate, though not by a significant amount, it shows that higher accuracy can be expected through adequate market segmentation, but will lead to bias when lack of datum.

不動產估價一般需採比較法、收益法及成本法等三種方法查估。不動產估價最終估值決定須進行協調(reconciliation)，協調的目的係為完成關聯(correlation)之步驟，就各種方法資料之質量及優缺點進行分析。為使不動產估價對於比較法三件買賣實例，及三種方法估值採賦予權重之決定方式提供量化解釋，本文分別建立比較法內部及三種方法外部權重模型。內部權重部分，買賣實例（市場）比較法一般需蒐集數個比較標的，經調整後之試算價格決定比較價格。國外以數學計算式計算實例權重雖已相當普遍，但目前尚無應用特徵效用模式，解讀實例權重形成與比較標的內部條件之關聯。本文以2007年及2008年地價基準地6,435筆買賣實例建構特徵權重模型，發現比較法買賣實例權重受價格型態、交易日期接近性、是否屬近鄰地區、實例差異百分率絕對值加總、實例比較項目修正數、其他兩個實例相對值等自變數影響顯著。 欲探討成本法估值是否與成交價存在差異，以作為外部權重設定之基礎，本文以北部地區986筆交易案例，由估價人員逐筆以成本法估計成本價格，俾與成交價格比較。發現成本價格有高估之系統性偏誤現象，分量迴歸(quantile regression)分析實證認為成本法並未因屋齡較新之建物有較高精度。另發現房地交易價格愈高、建物單價愈高、總樓層數愈高、移轉樓層愈低、建物面積愈小、建築工期愈長及利潤率愈小者；估值差異愈小。 外部權重分為三部分，首先將估價過程中之諸項因子，以分析階層程序法(AHP)專家問卷，彙整各種方法權重因子；其次，基於最適加權平均模式在於使三種方法估值總誤差最小之觀點，經由數學計算方程式建構2,150筆基準地三種方法標準差及相關係數模型以計算權重。第三、為了瞭解比較估值、收益估值與土地開發分析估值之關聯，本文將2,150筆三種估價方式權重建立聯立模型，以三階段最小平方法(3SLS)進行估計。實證模型系統加權解釋力甚高，且三種方式權重之自變數多符合預期並顯著，顯見三種方式之關聯性。 最後，不動產估價仍需考慮一般因素，如金融海嘯對全球金融及房地產市場，其影響力無遠弗屆，最終估值之決定即需考慮市場景氣對最終估值之影響。為探討對於(不)景氣時是否(低)高估？影響(低)高估與否之影響因素為何？本文以2002年至2004年國內某金融機構對房屋貸款20,532件之估值，以二項式邏輯特(Binary Logit)模型分析。實證結果發現於不景氣時期抵押貸款低估機率提高，景氣時期則無高估現象。綜上，本文以權重模式、估值差異及市場景氣影響探討不動產估價最終估值之形成，於權重模型建構及預測上，非如以往文獻僅對估值預測，而係就權重預測。於加權平均應用上，外生變數之迴歸係數可作為權重設定之參考。本文直接探討最終估值形成之權重核心，冀使估價之客觀性及科學化程度提高。 / Real estate appraisal comprises the sales comparison, income, and cost approaches to value in general. The purpose of reconciliation is to complete the procedure of correlation and analyze the qualitative and quantitative strengths and weaknesses of different approach data. In order to assist quantifiable explanation when weighted average for three comparables in the Sales comparison approach and indicated values from three approaches are applied, this paper constructs internal and external weight models respectively. For internal weight model, this paper examines the correlation between weight and internal attributes of 6,345 sales comparables from land value benchmark in 2007 and 2008 adopting the hedonic price model. The outcome shows the price type, the proximity of transaction date, inside the neighborhood area or not, total gross adjustment as %, numbers of adjustments and the attributes of other two comparables considered in one appraisal are significant on the weight of comparables. To explore whether the cost approach causes bias or not, and make it reference for establishment of external weight model, this paper compares the cost value, appraised by valuers applying the cost approach individually, from a sample of 986 transactions of properties sold in 2007 and 2008 in northern Taiwan, to sale price and finds the cost value is higher than sale price on average. It proves that the reliability of the cost approach is comparatively questionable due to its systematic bias of overestimation. With quantile regression, the outcome shows that the precision of cost value won’t increase for newer buildings. In addition, this paper finds the more the total property sales amount, the higher the unit construction fee, the higher building, the lower story, the smaller area, the longer construction years of properties, and the smaller profit rate; the smaller the bias. There are three parts for external weights. First, AHP expert questionare is adopted to combine weight factor from each approach. Secondly, based on the logic that the best way to assign weights on three appraisal approaches is to get the minimum total error, this paper calculates the standard error and correlation indicators from three approaches using 2,150 land value benchmarks. Thirdly, in order to realize the weights correlation among the sales comparison value, income capitalization value and land development analysis value, this paper builds a model based on the three-stage least squares method simultaneous equation (3SLS). The empirical result shows system weighted R2 is high and most attributes on the weights of three indication of value are significant and are consistent with expected sign, which means the model fit is good and how the weights of three methods correlate. Finally, general factor also needs to be considered in real estate appraisal. For instance, financial tsunami exerts powerful influence on financial and real estate market globally, which makes it necessary to consider real estate cylce influence when seeking the final value. In order to discuss whether the appraisal value of mortgage is smaller (greater) or not when the market is bearish (bullish) and the corresponding factors, this paper collects 20,532 mortgage appraisal value from one bank from 2002 to 2004. With Binary Logit model, this paper finds the probability of lower appraisal is greater in bear market. The outcome confirms two hypotheses of this paper. However, overestimation is not confirmed in bull market. To sum up, this thesis researches the formation of final value of real estate appraisal by discussing weight model, appraisal bias and influence of real estate cycle. For weight model construction and forecasting, this dissertation forecasts weight directly, instead of value like most literature focus. The regression coefficients estimated from factors during the procedure of each approach could serve for reference if weighted average is applied reconciling the value conclusion by valuers. By delving into the core issue of value formation, it hopes to elevate the degree the objectivity and science of real estate appraisal.

我國在金融監督管理委員會2009年5月14日宣告全面採用國際會計準則後，所有公開發行公司即受到全面性的衝擊;而在眾多的IFRS中，IAS 40投資性不動產會計準則，是目前國內會計準則所沒有的規定，且此號公報最特別的規定，是允許投資性不動產的續後評價，企業可以擁有選用公允價值法與歷史成本法的彈性，這樣的特殊規定觸發筆者想瞭解，企業未來適用此號公報，其續後評價方法之選擇及影響選擇原因的動機。 相對於歐美，由於我國缺乏具有長期收益性與安全性的資金投資管道，造成我國保險業長期偏好將可運用資金投資於實體不動產，故IAS 40對我國保險業影響重大，因此筆者以我國保險業為研究對象，以問卷、個案分析及訪談來探討保險業者對未來適用IAS 40之看法與期待。 經過研究分析，本研究發現60.61%的保險業在未來實施IAS 40後會繼續延用歷史成本模式，對影響選擇的因素方面，受訪者認為「對盈餘數字高低的影響」、「所得稅金額大小的考慮」、「對不同年度的損益造成波動的關係」等三項因素最為重要，另外，受訪者最認同新會計準則方法規定允許公司選用歷史成本法或公允價值法「會增加公司間財務資訊比較的複雜性」，且60.6%受訪公司傾向不同意提前適用此號公報。 / After the Financial Supervisory Commission Executive Yuan, R .O.C. declaring on May 14, 2009 that adopt International Accounting Standard in an all-round way in our country, all the public company were totally impacted promptly; Among the IFRSs, IAS 40 investment property is not exist at our present domestic accounting regulations and the most special of this regulation is allowing the enterprises can have elasticity of selecting the cost method or fair value method for measurement after recognition. The special treatments induce me to understand the drivers of the reason in its choice. As to America and Europe, because our country lacks have long-term rentability and security fund investment channel, cause the insurance of our country prefer to invest in real estate for a long time, so the implemental of IAS 40 will influence our insurance industry very much, so the study use questionnaires, case analysis and interview to researching the determinants of insurance industry choice to use the cost or fair value model to account for their real estate. Researched and analyzed, originally discover that 60.61% of the insurances will continue to use the cost method after implementing IAS 40 in the future, to influencing the factor chosen, interviewees think ”the amount of earnings”, “the tax amount” and “the volatility of income in different years” three factors are most important. In addition, interviewees admit that IAS 40 permits enterprises to choose cost method or fair value method will increase the complexity of comparisons among the companies’ report, and 60.6% interviewed disagree earlier application with this criterion.

不動產由於具有異質性、不可移動性與昂貴性等特性，相較於其他資產而言，最獨特的風險為「流動性風險」(liquidity risk)，也因此其銷售期間比其他標的較長，議價空間也較大。以往探討不動產流動性的研究大都以在市場上的銷售期間(time on the market, TOM)為主，然本研究認為銷售期間和賣方的表價（listing price）與買方心中的價格（offer price）密切相關，買方決策的過程勢必受到賣方表價與本身心中價格之影響，進而決定該不動產在市場之流動性。故本研究則嘗試以賣方表價與最後成交價(transaction price)間的議價空間，探討不動產市場之流動性。議價空間愈大，表示不動產標的在當時市場之流動性愈低，致使賣方愈能接受低於表價的買方出價及成交價。 本研究透過搜尋理論建立住宅不動產議價空間模型，並以實際市場交易資料進行實證分析，探討房屋本身的屬性、總體市場因素、賣方持有的成本、區位因素與賣方定價因素等，對於買賣雙方議價空間之影響，藉以觀察理論與實證是否相符。其中以房屋總坪數與屋齡代表房屋屬性，以房租成長率與經濟成長率代表市場情況，並以利率代表賣方持有成本。實證結果顯示，屋齡太久或賣方定價過高的不動產，其議價空間愈大，流動性愈差；房租成長率和經濟成長率皆與議價空間呈負相關，表市場景氣愈好，議價空間愈小，賣方在議價過程中較能堅守其表價；又利率與議價空間呈正相關，表賣方持有不動產的成本越高，越能接受較大的議價空間；而總坪數愈大及區位較佳之不動產，其議價空間越小，可能受豪宅市場效應以及區域抗跌性有關。此實證結果與過去利用銷售期間衡量不動產市場流動性的搜尋理論相符，也驗證議價空間實可為衡量不動產市場流動性的新指標，並可降低利用銷售期間分析的研究困境。本研究成果不僅可供不動產賣方定價策略、買方議價時機之參考，亦希望透過本研究對議價空間與不動產市場流動性之研究，期望政府儘速建立與公開不動產交易平台，俾利增進不動產市場之流動性，更能牽動不動產市場與整體經濟市場之成長。 / The study suggests that not only time on market (TOM) but also price concession between the listing and contract prices could measure housing market liquidity. Departed from past studies, this paper develops theory and constructs a model named Residential Housing Price Concession Model to examine whether key factors influenced housing market liquidity significantly from past studies would have the same effect on price concession. The model includes the listing price of house, the macroeconomic data, the cost of the search and other housing characters in empirical model. Results show that listing price, cost of search and age of house have the predicted positive coefficients, and macroeconomic data , squares of house and location factor are found to be negatively related to the price concession. The corresponding conclusion with time on market (TOM) examined by past studies explains that the price concession also could measure housing market liquidity.

投資決策時，除了關注資產的報酬外，更不可忽略風險。而風險的衡量上，一般常用風險值來衡量投資所面臨的風險，這是由於風險值具有動態管理、量化風險等優點。而國內研究對於不動產風險值的文獻上多以住宅市場為主，對於商用不動產較無著墨，是故本研究欲從不同風險值模型探討投資商用不動產的風險值，並分為直接投資(北市商用不動產)與間接投資(REITs)商用不動產兩個不同次市場。實證結果發現直接投資商用不動產風險值高於間接投資商用不動產。其次，本研究試圖比較靜態與動態風險值模型在估計不動產風險值的行為表現，經回溯測試(Back Testing)檢驗後發現，發現兩個模型衡量不動產風險值時，表現差異性不大。最後，本研究並以夏普績效(Sharp Ratio)來衡量直接投資與間接投資商用不動產的投資績效，研究期間為2007年6月至2009年3月。實證結果發現，直接投資商用不動產在景氣衰退與股市劇跌時具有抗跌性；而間接投資商用不動產則與股市發生同時下跌的現象，此現象可能是我國REITs具有代理問題(Agency Problem)與系統風險(Systematic Risk)等問題所致。因此，本研究建議投資者投資REITs時，應同時考量REITs存在上述的風險與問題，以避免投資上的損失。 / When making investment strategies, aside from considering the return of investment, one cannot ignore the risk factors. In measuring risk, we usually use VaR (Value at Risk) to calculate the risks of investment because, among other reasons, VaR has dynamic and quantifiable advantages. Most of the studies regarding real estate investment risk in Taiwan focus on residential markets; thus, this paper investigates commercial real estate markets using different VaR models to determine the degree of risk, distinguishing further between direct investment markets and indirect investment markets like REITs (Real Estate Investment Trust). The result of this study reveals that direct real estate investment involves higher risks than indirect real estate investment. Furthermore, there was hardly any difference in investment risk when using either static or dynamic VaR models in the computations after using Back Testing. Finally, this study employs Sharp Ratio to calculate commercial real estate investment performance covering the period between June 2007 and March 2009. Direct real estate investment shows firmness during economic downturns or stock market crashes unlike indirect real estate investment like REITs which follows stock market trends. This phenomenon may be due to Agency Problem and Systematic Risk in Taiwan’s REITs market. Therefore this study suggests that when investing in REITs one has to take into account the risks and problems in order to avoid unnecessary investment losses.

資產報酬的波動程度隱含風險與不確定性，不同的投資者存在不同之風險偏好與風險承受能力，因此瞭解報酬波動之特性有其必要性；又鑑於過去不動產市場對於商用與住宅不動產兩次市場之相關研究較欠缺。因此本研究擬分別探討商用與住宅不動產市場報酬波動特性與差異，並檢視其風險與報酬間之關係。此外，總體經濟環境之變動會影響不動產市場供需關係，進而影響其價格與報酬之波動，因此本研究最後再進一步討論影響其市場報酬之總體經濟因素。 為捕捉不動產市場報酬之波動特性，本研究擬透過GARCH模型分別檢驗商用與住宅不動產市場報酬波動特性與差異；進而應用GARCH-M模型，探討商用與住宅不動產市場報酬與風險之關係；最後透過落遲分配模型實證比較分析顯著影響商用與住宅不動產市場報酬之總體經濟因素。樣本取自台北地區，資料期間為1997年2月至2009年3月之月資料。 實證結果顯示，商用不動產市場中投資人較容易透過自身過去的報酬波動推測未來的波動，反觀住宅不動產市場部分，投資人則傾向注意整體市場消息的散佈，因為其較容易受到外在因素影響而導致報酬波動；由GARCH-M模型實證結果顯示，住宅與商用不動產市場報酬與風險間均呈現顯著正相關，顯示其市場波動風險增加時期，會提供更高之報酬以均衡投資者所面對之較高市場波動風險；由落遲分配模型實證結果顯示，商用與住宅不動產市場報酬確實和總經變數之間有著程度不同的關聯性，所有當期總經變數與不動產報酬間均不存在顯著影響關係，顯示各總經變數對不動產報酬的影響存在時間落差。此外，總經變數對商用報酬的影響程度相對大於對住宅報酬的影響，且總體經濟環境變動對於商用不動產市場報酬之衝擊相對較為迅速。 / This research plans to study the relative volatility characteristic of commercial and residential property returns. In addition, the changing real estate environment can be linked to the macro economy, so we further discusses the relationship between property returns and the macro economy. In order to catch the volatility characteristic of real estate returns, we use GARCH model to examine the volatile behavior of real estate returns of commercial and residential property in the Taipei area during the period of February 1997 to March 2009, and because risk is time-varying in the market, we continue to employ GARCH-M model to observe whether can explain the change in expected returns of commercial and residential property. Furthermore, we use distributed-lag model to explore the relationship between macroeconomic factors and real estate returns. The major findings of this article can be summarized as follows. First, it is easier for investors to infer the future fluctuation through oneself returns in the past in the commercial real estate market, but part on the residential real estate market, the volatility of residential property returns is influenced by external factor more easily. Second, our empirical applications in both commercial and residential real estate markets show that the risk is positively correlated with both property returns and high risk can bring high return. Third, there are different relations of intensity between real estate returns and macroeconomic factors and the impact of macroeconomic factors on real estate returns exist time-lag. In addition, macroeconomic factors’ impact on commercial returns is relatively great, and the environmental change takes place to the impact of the commercial property returns comparatively fast.

隨著網路的崛起，傳統實體通路的存在價值與市場地位也飽受威脅，在市場上的實際演變，書店、銀行、證券、旅遊、機票等中介者的角色，明顯的已可被電子商務網站所取代，因此在國外已經有很多針對網路對實體通路產生「去中介化」之研究，在國內雖然也有類似的現象產生，但迄今還沒有類似的研究，所以本研究有開啟此議題研究先河之意義。 與其他遭到「去中介化」產業或服務比較，不動產仲介業更倚賴「人」之中介角色，但其銷售之產品又具有高度不易「去中介化」的特性：異質性、高總價、少交易經驗等，所以其面臨「去中介化」之威脅，的關鍵因素是什麼，其受到「去中介化」衝擊之程度到底多大，都是本研究想要探討之課題。 根據問卷調查，本研究發現交易成本是不動產仲介業面臨「去中介化」的關鍵原因，不過在目前之環境下，不動產仲介業還是不可能完全被不動產自售網站所取代，而不動產自售網站如果想要發揮自售之功效，還需多強化網頁內容呈現、提升網站知名度以及增加配套服務。 / Following the emerging of internet, traditional retail channels of books, banks, stocks, tourism and ticketing have faced the challenges from many internet-based businesses (electronic commerce) which eliminating intermediary between buyers and sellers make products or services to sell cheaper and faster. And there are many researches on such kind of disintermediation effects in foreign society. But till now there is not any kind of disintermediation study in Taiwan. This study is a beginning research of disintermediation in Taiwan. Though the real estate brokerage industry, which relying more on middleman (broker) than others, has the high-priced and idiosyncratic product features, it also faces the direct challenges from for-sale-by-owner (FSBO) websites. So the study tries to find out what is the key factor that caused the disintermediation and how far it goes in the real estate brokerage industry. The major findings of the study are that transaction cost is the real factor that caused the disintermediation, the functions and status of real estate brokers are still not easily to take place by FSBO websites and the later has to intensify content layouts, increase website’s reputation and offer extra services to attract more users to FSBOs.