国立情報学研究所で電子文書化したコンテンツを使用している。

博士(法学) / Doctor of Laws / 同志社大学 / Doshisha University

群眾運動的本質是一種集體尋求變革的勢力, 其運動方式是藉群眾聚集展現力量, 迫 使政府改革或讓步, 以達其變革之目的。群眾的聚集具有高度的危性, 尤其當衝突涉 及政治權力分配或意識型態之爭時, 其手段特別激烈, 因此, 如無充份必要與保護, 以這種方式作為抗爭手段宜格外謹慎。 臺灣經濟的成長, 有目共睹, 唯政治的進步, 顯然不能與經濟的成長一樣, 獲得同樣 的評價與肯定。國民黨政府遷臺以來, 一向堅持中華民國是中國唯一合法的政府及國 民黨對臺灣社會的主導地位。因此制度結構的安排呈現「戡亂與行憲」并行的雙軌制 度, 實際實行的結果又是戡亂體制凌駕憲政制度之上, 其次, 國民黨堅持其主導地位 , 因此造成一黨獨大, 反對勢力無法與之抗爭。 臺灣社會在國際有利環境下快速發展, 但民國六十年代開始, 國際政治環境的轉變, 及國內社會結構的蛻變, 在一連串的外交挫折下, 內政改革的要求, 急需迫切。改革 固然是朝野共同的體認, 但改革的層次、輻度, 顯有歧見, 反對運動開始出現, 唯社 會上缺乏競爭的場所, 致使反對勢力運用群眾運動作為抗爭方式。「中壢事件」使部 份反對人士認識到群眾的力量, 誤以為群眾可用, 終因「美麗島事件」主要份子悉遭 逮捕, 反對運動轉往議會路線發展。 七十年代初期, 隨著政治結構的轉化, 運動成本相對降低, 群眾運動再度作為抗爭方 式, 值得注意的事, 運動目標由政治結構改革, 提升到國家認同層次, 運動頻率急速 上升, 警政署統計, 臺灣地區政治性聚眾活動, 75年406 件, 76年873 件, 77年900 件, 78年1 至10月1520件, 再者, 由於運動的「內在交替性」使得社會性運動轉變為 政治性的抗議運動。 本文試圖從社會結構及群眾行為探討臺灣政治群眾運動之發展。

第一章：導論－－說明研究動機和目的及談討所用的概念和研究途徑。 第二章：描述中蘇共關係演變的幾個階段以現階段中蘇共衝突之特質和因素之分析。 第三章：東北亞在中蘇共衝突中之戰略意義，及中蘇兩共對東北亞戰略之探討。 第四章：中蘇共衝突與東北亞安全之相關關係，特別是日本、韓國半島所扮演的角色 之剖析。 第五章：中蘇共衝突與80年代東北亞安全的展望。

擁有廣闊領土且豐富資源的俄羅斯在帝俄及蘇聯時期曾經在歐洲和世界政治社會中扮演著主要角色，左右世界的走向。而其保守與激進相融的風格，對人類歷史文明亦造成深遠的影響。 所以俄羅斯聯邦繼承了蘇聯，雖然國力不如從前，仍具有世界大國的條件，再加上經濟、政治日趨穩定；但是今年（二○○三年）十二月國家杜馬選舉的結果；及選前起訴媒體大亨及逮捕石油大亨的種種事情，對於俄羅斯政治制度重返共產專制，不免有很大的想像空間，所以會關心莫斯科軍對亞太地區軍事安全戰略的形成與未來發展趨勢，因為克里姆林宮的政策走向，勢必會對亞太地區產生決定性和根本性的改變。 筆者是從有限理性決策模式的途徑來從事研究，並從決策中歸納出俄羅斯軍事安全思想具體內容。全文區分軍事安全思想形成與亞太軍事安全戰略核心價值和目標及對亞太地區影響等三大部分。 經研究後獲致其軍事安全核心價值為維護主權、疆界完整不容侵犯和控制周邊領域確保安全及提昇國際地位與聲望等三項，因而產生亞太安全目標為亞太大國地位的塑造與鞏固、和平穩定週邊環境的創造與維護、保持具備足夠防衛能力的軍事武力、營造多邊與雙邊兼容的安全機制等四個目標。並就與亞太國家交往和區域在安全、經濟合作等二部分來說明其影響所在。 研究發現有：俄羅斯具有亞太大國的必要條件。二、經濟因素對俄羅斯軍事安全戰略舉足輕重的影響。三、善用集體安全機制來達成安全目標。四、中國崛起對俄羅斯構成相當程度的心理威脅等四點。同時預測俄羅斯聯邦軍事安全戰略未來發展為：仍將把列為國家政策的重要地位。普京會繼續維持現有防禦性的國防政策，以軍事為經濟發展服務，伺其國力恢復強盛，先成為亞太大國，再向世界大國目標邁進。而莫斯科政局穩定性、國內經濟發展情況、與美國或中國的關係發展情況、國際情勢將影響未來發展走勢。

南中國海內有零星島群，其中以南沙群島為最，乃是世上最多國家涉及主權爭端的海域，其背後有當年殖民主義所遺留下來的歷史因素、現代海洋法公約所造成的曖昧不清的劃界以及主權權利劃分的問題，以及海洋資源的爭奪與政治上戰略地位的考量。上述因素相互關連並交織成南沙群島的主權爭議，中華民國、中華人民共和國、越南、菲律賓、馬來西亞與汶萊六方各執一詞，從法理、歷史甚至是國土安全等論點來宣示主權，不過各爭端國在論點上各有利弊，所以南沙群島的主權劃歸至今仍無解。但是即便各方在主權議題上互不相讓，然而就南沙群島主權爭議而言，這些理性的行為者在幾番考量下仍願意共同合作。就目前的情況來看，先行暫時擱置主權，再進行共同開發似乎是唯一可行的方法，特別是合作的目標物為海上石油與油氣資源，因為能源資源乃是具有高度價值的不可再生性資源，而據相關單位估計，目前全球已開發的石油資源即將面臨耗竭狀態，因此潛在的石油存量才更加吸引各國的目光。 / 依照各方的合作意願與態度，本論文將以新自由制度主義中理性選擇下的合作精神與建制概念分析南海共同開發的可適用性與限制性。先論述共同開發的意涵，再闡述新自由制度主義與共同開發的關連性。接者為了配合南海的共同開發，筆者先介紹學者針對南海合作的觀點，再針對一九九零年馬來西亞與泰國暹邏灣大陸架資源共同開發案、二零零二年中國與越南北部灣劃界與漁業協定、二零零五年中、菲、越三國南海聯合海洋地震工作協議與二零零八年中國與菲律賓所發表的有關共同捕魚區的合作建議等四項案例作分析，從實際合作中探討未來針對南沙群島水域的共同開發可行性，並從新自由制度主義探討合作的展望與限制。 / Of all the islands in the South China sea, the island groups of the Spratlys is one of the most keenly disputed territories in Southeast Asia, where overlapping claims for sovereignty and territorial jurisdiction are hotly debated. There are a lot of reasons giving rise to the debate. First some scholars view the problem over the Spratlys as part of the historical legacies left behind by the former Western colonial powers. Second, other scholars place greater emphasis on ambiguous legal aspects of territorial jurisdiction. Third still other scholars emphasize political and geo-strategic considerations to explain the complex situation. Lastly nowadays a lot of studies focus on the possibilities of the discovery of major gas and oil field. Those perspectives above can explain why there is no concrete agreement among the six parties including the Republic of China, the People’s Republic of China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei. Although the issue of sovereignty and territorial jurisdiction is too complicate to deal with now, those rational actors still may cooperate and jointly explore and exploit. At present the only possible way to joint development is to first put sovereignty aside and then collaborate. / In this thesis, the objective is to analyze the feasibility and limitation of joint development from Neo-liberal Institutionalism which is mainly about cooperation and regime. First I explain what joint development is and then analyze the linkage between Neo-liberal Institutionalism and joint development. And the next part focuses on the Spratly islands and I analyze four cases including the agreement between Malaysia and Thailand on the constitution and other matters relating to the establishment of the joint authority, the agreement between China and Vietnam on Beibu gulf, the joint authority agreement on joint seismic survey of the South China Sea among the oil companies of China, Vietnam and the Philippines, and the recommendation of common fishing zone. I analyze and predict whether the joint development is feasible in the future through the analysis of practical cooperation.

進入21世紀以來，隨著經濟全球化和地區經濟一體化的深化，中國推動韓半島政策，對外戰略而言含有諸多作為：第一、謀求擴大經濟利益；第二、作為地緣經濟戰略夥伴；第三、作為主導東北亞地區地緣經濟合作的管道。 為此，中國著眼於中、韓、朝三方的國家發展需求和地緣經濟互補性，謀求加強與南北韓政治經濟合作的發展，同時，以三方之間地緣經濟合作優勢確保其在韓半島的影響力，在此基礎上，中國謀求消除韓半島安全不確定性，牽制美國影響力和日本勢力。從此觀點來看，中國對韓半島政策就是中國對外戰略的出發點。 從地緣經濟戰略觀點而言，中國與韓半島關係不僅與中國營造發展經濟良好周邊環境有關，而且中國在中韓、中朝關係上具有政治經濟合作利益空間，因而中國加強與南韓政治領域合作交流，透過以經濟條件拋棄北韓邊緣政策，謀求維持韓半島和平與穩定。另外，中國利用與韓半島地緣經濟所長，加強與南北韓經貿合作，深化南北韓對中國經濟依存度，進而通過中國對南北韓的經濟優勢，主導中韓、中朝的地緣經濟合作，確保對韓半島的戰略優勢與影響力。 中國對韓半島政策的目標，將韓半島作為中國發展經濟戰略的管道，謀求地緣經濟利益最大化，透過提升在韓半島的影響力，使得韓半島走向中立化。中國對韓半島實施地緣經濟政策以來，中國與南北韓關係日益密切，在某種領域上，中國已經超越周邊大國的影響力。 在政治與安全領域，中國與南北韓透過領導人和高層人士進行頻繁互訪、建立相互對話機制或設立熱線管道，提高相互信任，加強雙方關係、謀求地區安全和發展。在經濟上，中國引進為自身經濟建設所需要的資金、高技術及礦物資源，而提供為南北韓經濟成長所需的巨大出口市場，尤其是中國也提供北韓經濟所需的原油和工業產品。由此，最近幾年來，中國成為南北韓對外貿易最大夥伴，與此同時，引起南北韓經濟對中國依存度的深化，因而，中國對韓半島的影響力正在擴大。 / Since the start of the 21st century, with constant intensification of the process of economic globalization and regional economic integration, China has pursued much-evolved Korean Peninsula policy for its own strategic goals as following: First, to strengthen its own economic interest; Second, to make the geoeconomic partnership with the two Koreas; Third, to make the partnership as the leverage for regional strategy. For the sake of securing economic common interest and geoeconomic complementarities with the two Koreas, China seeks to develop the cooperative relationship with North and South Korea. At the same time, China seeks to ensure its influence on the Korean Peninsula by using its geoeconomic advantage on the Korean Peninsula. Based on the relations, China hopes to remove the destabilizing factors in the security on the Korean Peninsula, and seeks to restrain American influence and Japan’s power. From this viewpoint, China’s Korea Policy is the starting point of China's foreign policy. From the perspective of geoeconomic strategy, the relationship between China and the two Koreas are much important with regard to building favorable environment for economic development. At the same time, the relations of China-South Korea and China-North Korea have economically and politically beneficial space. Therefore, on the one hand, China has been strengthening political cooperation with South Korea, and China has been forcing the North Korea to abandon the brinkmanship diplomacy by using economic inducements through cooperation with South Korea. As a result, it was designed for maintaining peace and stability on the Korean Peninsula. On the other hand, by utilizing the geoeconomic advantage with the two Koreas, China has strengthened the economic cooperation with the two Koreas; it has deepened the two Koreas’ economic dependency on China; As a result, it has been taking the lead in geoeconomic cooperation with the two Koreas; and it has been securing its strategic advantage and influence over the Peninsula. The objective of China’s Korea policy is to make the Peninsula be the ditch of China’s economic development; to maximize its geoeconomic interest; besides, to make the Koreas become neutralizing by taking advantage of geoeconomic influence. Since the implementation of China’s geoeconomic policy on the Peninsula, its relations with the two Koreas have become much closer. In some realms, China surpassed neighboring big powers’ influence. In the realm of politics and security, China has pursued the mutual confidence building by the means such as reciprocal visits, mutual dialogue mechanism and hot-line setting with the leadership of the two Koreas for the sake of strengthening of the bilateral relationship and securing of the regional security. And, in the realm of economy, while China brought in investment and high technology from the South side and the mineral resources from the North side, it provided the huge export market for the Peninsula, especially the crude oil and industrial products for the North. Recently, China has become one of the two Korea’s biggest trade partner. Consequently, the two Koreas’ economic dependency on China has been deepening and China’s influence on the Peninsula has been expanding.

一個國家的政府，無論其規模大小，必會具有地方性層次的思考；當一國追求在其週邊區域上更具影響力時，並成為區域的強權，則以地區性層次的考量來決定國家安全政策制定；而少數能在國際政治影響力的國家，其政府有其專屬的世界地緣政治觀，其是以全球的角度來制定其國家戰略。本文所研究的核心目的是兩岸關係中台灣的戰略價值。 　　二戰後國際局勢丕變，各國戰略利益縱橫交錯，不是單存的地緣關係，而是多從性質的政治、經濟和軍事利益的制約與聯合，因此地緣戰略在整個國家戰略中的地位日益重要。 　　台灣是亞洲地緣戰略的重要部分，在兩岸關係與各國的利益關係影響極大。正因為台灣處在這東亞第一島鏈的戰略要衝上，其戰略價值的重要性是不可言喻，就中國而言，掌控台灣，則中國海防無憂，失去台灣，則中國戰略縱深將縮數百公里，對其政治、經濟及軍事上均有深層的影響；另外，對美、日等東亞地區大國國家利益影響亦有一定的衝擊。總的來說「台海兩岸未來關係的重大變數，使得台灣問題變得不僅更難處理，甚至還會為東亞地區帶來動盪不安的局勢」。 學生試圖從兩岸關係的地緣的角度來分析台灣的政治、經濟及軍事的戰略價值，並探究在全球化的發展下，台灣將會面臨什麼樣的地緣戰略？為了台灣的國家安全、生存與利益，要如何作為？及台灣的戰略價值對兩岸關係中的另一個主角─中共未來發展會有什麼影響？則是個 人研究的規劃與方向。 / Regardless of its scale, a government must have the ability to process consideration on local issues when making different kinds of national strategies. When a country pursues its power on marginal areas to become regional authority, it usually makes its national security policies based on local considerations. For the very few nations that have certain power on international politics, their governments have their specific viewpoints of international geographic politics, which is that they make their national strategies based on international viewpoints. This study aims to discuss the core value of Taiwan in cross-Strait relations. After World War II, each country share strategic interests with different countries. Relations between countries are not confined to neighbors anymore. They have become multiple restrictions and alliance in terms of politics, economy, and military. Therefore, geographic strategies have become more and more important in a country’s national strategies. In terms of geographic strategy, Taiwan is an important part in Asia. It has a great influence on cross-Strait relations and the interests of different countries. Because Taiwan is located at the major juncture on the First Island Chain in East Asia, its importance and strategic values are of no doubt. To China, controlling Taiwan means no worries about treads from the Strait. However, losing Taiwan means that China’s strategic depth would be hundreds of miles shorter, which would cause great influences on its politics, economy, and military. Moreover, it would also cause great impacts on the interests of the United States and some powerful countries in East Asia like Japan. To sum up, the great variability in the relations between the two sides of the Strait has made Taiwan issue tougher to manage. It is even possible to cause instability in East Asia area. In this study, I attempt to analyze Taiwan’s strategic values in terms of politics, economy, and military from the angle of geographic relations of the two sides of the Strait, and to discuss the geographic strategies that Taiwan might face with the development of globalization. Specifically, I aim to discuss how Taiwan should react to all these challenges in order to ensure national security and interests, and what the effects are that the strategic values of Taiwan have on the future development of China.

都市地區因人口增長、大量人工建成環境與能源使用等緣故，將產生都市熱島效應。都市熱島效應產生都市高溫化，進而衍生各種都市環境問題，如都市微氣候改變、能源消耗與供給壓力增加、空氣汙染物不易擴散等(Landsberg, 1981)。臺灣位於亞熱帶氣候地區，人口多集中於都市地區，尤其是臺北市。先前相關研究指出臺北市具有都市熱島效應。本研究從有高蓄熱特性的道路與建築量體所構成之「都市街道」為尺度範圍，將進行固定監測站之量測，實際取得都市微氣候之數據（溫度與熱舒適性指標），配合都市街道熱環境因子之調查，一併探討都市街道熱環境因子產生都市高溫化的關係，有別於其他研究探討都市整體的熱島效應，或是單一影響因素導致的都市高溫化，如街廓、材料、植栽、人工排熱等對微氣候的影響。此外，本研究輔以計算流體力學（Computational Fluid Dynamics，簡稱CFD），將量測的數據做為模擬之基本條件，進而模擬都市街道的風場與溫度場，搭配實測數據與模擬值作分析，並且加入都市街道熱環境因子與兩者作探討。研究成果指出植栽綠化與遮蔭將有效改善都市高溫化現象。

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