因應傳播科技發展與市場化競爭，台灣電視新聞記者愈來愈常見利用MSN「會稿」與新聞畫面的「合帶」，進行緊密的集體合作行為。電視新聞記者透過集體「會稿」，不漏新聞又能掌握各台動向，因此受到新聞室組織的默許，甚而影響各台的新聞取向與編輯策略。而原只存在於駐地記者的「合帶」行為，也逐漸向上擴展到地方新聞中心，甚至台北總部，使得記者對集體合作的依存度更高。 電視台記者的跨台集體合作行為，導致台灣電視新聞出現特殊的「合工效應」，新聞內容更趨「同質化」與「濫獨家」現象充斥。電視記者蒐集新聞資訊方式從過去佈線經營人脈，轉變為倚賴同業關係而獲得，但二手資訊卻常使得新聞的錯誤率增加。 本研究透過訪談20位資深電視新聞記者，勾勒出「會稿」與「合帶」集體合作行為的三層次形貌，剖析不同層次集體合作的運作方式與目的，並探討集體合作對於新聞產製流程、電視記者職能與專業態度的影響，同時對電視新聞媒體現況提出省思。 / The development of communication technology and growing competition have led TV reporters in Taiwan to rely on underground inter-station and interpersonal cooperation, which consists mainly of information exchange on MSN and news video sharing. Despite the potential violation of work ethics, such cooperation eliminates the possibility of missing out on any news story, and hence is given silent permission from the news room. Such news gathering, however, has to a certain extent changed the selection and editing strategies in TV stations. News video sharing, a method originally used only among local correspondents, has spread to regional news centers, and sometime even the headquarters in Taipei. These in turn reinforce reporters’ reliance on interpersonal cooperation. Such interpersonal cooperation of TV reporters in Taiwan has also resulted in a homogeneous news industry full of meaningless “exclusive” news stories. While reporters used to gather news from independent sources, they have now turned to share information with other TV stations. Despite the convenience, such second-hand facts are of more potential errors. The researcher of this paper has interviewed twenty senior TV reporters and depicted a tri-tier cooperative system—from local correspondents, regional news centers, to headquarters. This study looks into the means and purposes of this cooperation model on all the three levels and probes into its possible effects on the news reporting process, TV reporters’ competencies, and professional attitudes.

本研究探討生產力4.0計畫推進ERP (Enterprise Resource Planning, Gartner Group Inc. 1990)軟體在產業管理系統的關鍵地位。從ERP軟體系統一直未能在企業百分之百順利建置的角度，分析企業在系統軟體導入過程中，內外關係人影響力造成的失效率，探討以羊群行為減低失效率，提升ERP成功比率，期以降低經營管理的沉沒成本。 通常企業要成功導入ERP系統，是取決於有效的專案管理(Loh and Koh, 2004)。而BPR (business process reengineering)是導入ERP系統的關鍵作業標準，例如Oracle的AIM(application, implementation, methodology)、SAP的ASAP(accelerated SAP)、鼎新的TIM(top implementation methodology)和江氏的FIT(fine implementation tool)。在過去24年來卻已緩緩偏離了企業實作科技(operational technology, OT)的基礎，包括經驗與務實(empirical and practice)的運作程序，依靠以資訊科技(information technology, IT)的標準節點為入口導向。 設若BPR標準操作流程，於導入期間重視經驗與務實的影響力，能夠妥適引導轉移(proper piloting migration, PPM)作最佳化適配(adaptation)。則建置和使用ERP系統(system)的策略，是整合網際網路(cyber)的市場價值和實體(physical)的執行績效，達成企業生產力4.0計畫的CPS虛實整合，為運營上帶來一項資產(asset)，而非遺產(legacy)。 / The study investigates possibly raising successful installation rate by Herd Behivor for the software of Enterprise Resource Planning, ERP (Gartner Group Inc. 1990) under Industry 4.0 Project. According to the historical data that reducing available rate of stakeholder influence would drop the sunk cost of information technology management. Usually enterprises in order to get an effectiveness of ERP installation, it depends on whether using proper project management (Loh and Koh, 2004). However, BPR (business process reengineering) was acting a key factor of standard operation procedure under project management in past 24 years, such as the Oracle’s AIM (application, implementation, methodology)、SAP’s ASAP (accelerated SAP)、Digiwin’s TIM (top implementation methodology) and Chiang’s FIT (fine implementation tool) . What failed rate of ERP installation is still high around industry, due to information technology (IT) instead of operational technology (OT). Meanwhile, the BRP could switch over to emphasize the empirical experience of piloting migration (PPM) of ERP on individual business. It would guide an optimal adaptation between operational site and information platform, the strategy of using ERP system is in order to combine both benefits as the marketing value of cyber and the manufacturing productivity of physical. There is the synergy coming from Industry 4.0 Project as well as an asset for the enterprise under a systematic integration of virtual cyber and physical reality.

大型股過去一直被認為平均報酬率低於小型股，但如果從個股來看，不少大型股的績效並不會比指數差。考慮到一般非專業投資人在投資股票時，選擇大型股還是比小型股容易，本論文試圖建構一套在實務上較可行的大型個股選股策略—選擇市值第二大的股票，並定期調整個股。我們以美股標準普爾500指數中前兩大市值的股票，分為兩種投資組合做比較，結果發現，市值最大的股票不容易創造超額報酬，市值第二大的股票，反而締造極佳的超額報酬，此現象在過去3年、5年、10年，尤其較過去20年更為明顯。原因在於市值排名第二的股票，多半屬於排名仍在持續上升的成長股，這些個股基本面尚未到達頂點，故股價還會反應一段時間的基本面利多，採取類似動能策略(Momentum Strategy)的方法，報酬率容易超越指數；市值最大者則因為基本面普遍伴隨市值排名已經到頂，加上投資人對於排名第一的股票，多半易產生定錨效應(Anchoring Effect)，即認為股價可能已經反應其該有的價值，較難創造超額報酬，傾向賣出。故同樣投資大型股，選擇市值第二名的股票會優於第一名。 / According to The Size Effect Theory, small cap securities generally generate greater returns than those of large cap companies. However, this trend has involved into the difficulties of stock picking due to the large number of small caps. In this paper I propose a strategy against the size effect theory, “Second is Better”, to pick the second largest market value security as the single stock investment. I examine the performances of the No.1 and the No.2 largest market cap stocks in the S&P500 and apply a 6-month rebalance to construct two different portfolios, which is similar to the concept of Momentum Strategy that buy the past winners and sell the past losers. I find the No.2 stock outperforms than No.1 stock and generate amazing excess returns in the near mid-to-long-term periods. Because No.1 stocks are more likely to experience Momentum Crash than No.2 stocks due to investor’s anchoring bias as they believe the No.1 stock might have been peaked. No.2 stocks are usually in the growing stages that many investors believe the 2nd largest caps still yet to peak during market value expansion.

區塊鏈是一種高可行性的基礎建設技術，不僅能提高效率、降低建設成本，其交易透明化和避免篡改等特性更使之得以被廣泛應用。由於資訊科技蓬勃發展，互聯網革命伴隨著客戶主導邏輯的興起，平台思維對於服務設計而言早已不敷使用。因此，區塊鏈數位生態系統將成為下一代服務設計的解決方案，強調生態系統中利益相關者的價值共創欲目標追求。 以現況而言，仍有許多服務無法在現實中發展或得以維持，網路效應的影響在數位環境中是極為強大且不容忽視的。我們的研究旨在由此出發衡量區塊鏈數位生態系統的成敗。我們提出的方法能使設計師基於理解關鍵多數的實現和網絡效應水平的大小，來瞭解其設計的可適應性與競爭力，這是一個數位生態系統能否突破真空的關鍵。此方法還提供如何提升設計的指南，使服務設計能更有機會地進入網路效應的爆炸階段。 / Blockchain is an infrastructure technology not only restricted to the financial industry, but also feasible and affordable to facilitating the operation of service provision with efficiency, lower construction cost, information transparency and non-falsified characteristics. By virtue of the information technology booms swiftly, the revolution which Internet brings about, accompanies with the rise of customer-dominant logic, platform thinking is no longer sufficient for the service design. Consequently, blockchain-based digital ecosystem becomes a solution of the next generation’s service design aspect which stresses on value co-creation among all the stakeholders of the ecosystem and proceeds to the same proposition. However, there are many service provisions unable to launch or sustain in reality. The network externality of the Internet is the most powerful, indispensable and un-negligible effect in the digital environment. Our study aims to estimate and measure the success or failure of blockchain-based digital ecosystems from this perspective. We propose a method which enables blockchain-based digital ecosystem designers to comprehend with the adaptability and competitiveness of the fulfillment of the critical mass and the examination of network effect level. They are crucial to pass through the vacuum stage of ecosystem lifetime. The method also provides guides about how to improve the designs in order to have a greater opportunity to get into the explosion stage of ecosystem lifetime.

我國行政院在1982年即訂定《行政院所屬各機關民意調查作業要點》，透過社會科學研究方法的運用，瞭解相關人員對政府施政之意見，以作為政策研擬、評估及提升服務品質與機關內部管理等之參考。隨著1987年宣布解嚴，以及後續政黨政治、公職選舉、媒體發展等等因素，使得民意調查的應用更為廣泛，並且成為台灣民主政治發展歷程中相當重要的一環。同一時期，Sidney Blumenthal於1980年出版《永無止盡選戰》(The Permanent Campaign)一書，指出民選首長當選之後，即不斷為連任作準備，為了達到此一目的，不僅過去的輔選團隊會隨著進入到白宮擔任政治顧問的角色，並且選戰思維也會影響著民選首長的決策作為，讓選戰模式變成是一種治理方式，當中最明顯的特點就是民意調查的執行與應用。 台灣從解嚴之後，選舉次數亦十分地頻繁，從地方到中央，從民意代表到行政首長，儼然已經形成一個相當完整的職涯歷程。為探求我國民選首長就任之後，是否會藉由民意調查機制協助他們解決問題並進行相關的決策，本研究透過次級資料分析法、深度訪談法、民意調查法，針對我們地方政府的民意調查執行及應用情形進行調查。研究發現我國地方政府在民意調查的執行部分受到行政程序及財政狀況之影響，因此不若選舉時期來的有彈性。其次，在民意調查機制的應用部份，受訪者表示對於政策環境的釐清相當具有幫助，可以協助他們決定政策方案的採行。最後，為了瞭解「從眾效應」策略性民調結果的公佈是否會影響到一般民眾既有的認知，本研究透過兩階段民意調查的實驗，分別針對雲林縣、台中市的民眾進行電話民意調查，依據差異分析顯示，無法證實民意調查結果的公佈的確對於民眾既有的認知會造成改變。 / In the field of public opinion polls initiated in the 1930s, seeking collective preferences of citizens and customers for the government and the business sector by means of mail, telephone, or face-to-face interviews has brought about a significant impact on human political and business life in the 20th century. In the 1980, Sidney Blumenthal published the book "The Permanent Campaign". In this book, Blumenthal explained how the changes in American politics from old-style patronage and party organization to that based on the modern technology of computer driven polling created a fundamentally new system. The concept of a permanent campaign describes the focus which recent presidents have given to electoral concerns during their tenures in office, with the distinction between the time they have spent governing and the time they have spent campaigning having become blurred and political consultants had replaced the party bosses and brought with them a new model by which campaigning became the forms of governing. Is campaigning becoming the forms of governing in Taiwan? To answer this questions, this dissertation is beginning with the theory discussion of the perspective of the “permanent campaign” and the “democratic governance”. Then, with the help of the method of interview and secondary data analysis, author discuss the application and limitation of the public opinion poll using in the governance of the local government. Public opinion poll can help the elected leader to find out the problems but it is limited by financial condition of the government itself. The author also designed a two-stage public opinion poll and divided the respondents into experimental group and contrast group. The author hypothesizes that respondents will change their choices because of the impact of “Conformity” and used an evidence-based analysis to testify the hypothesis. Finally, the author gives his conclusion and suggestion.

半總統制的運作特色是行政權力分別由總統和總理掌握，當半總統制的總統權力較小，就會由總理主導行政權力，此時半總統制的運作模式趨近於內閣制。但過去較少有文獻比較總統權力較小的半總統制國家，與內閣制國家的實際政治運作，是否有顯著的差異。本文先參照Wu(2012)的分類，選擇準內閣制做為總統權力較小的半總統制次類型，再與內閣制國家做比較。 本文的研究結果，發現準內閣制與內閣制之間，在國會的有效政黨數目、無黨籍總理出現的機率、總統總理同黨的機率沒有顯著的差異。顯示準內閣制的總統如同Wu分類的定義，不會介入任命過程，另外，總統選舉的衣尾效應也無法使大黨的席次增加。在總理任期的比較方面，雖然兩種制度的總理任期沒有顯著的差異，不過準內閣制的總理遭遇提前選舉下台的風險，低於內閣制，且準內閣制的總理連任機率也低於內閣制。這些結果皆表示，準內閣制的總統雖然不會介入組閣過程，但有可能對於國會的選舉時程產生影響，使總理無法在最佳時機發動國會提前選舉，進一步降低總理的連任機率。 綜合本文的研究發現，再對照過去的相關理論。半總統制與內閣制在實際運作上，仍然有一些差異。近年來，學界認為總統權力不是半總統制的重要條件，實際上，即使在總統權力較小的國家，總統權力可能還是有重要的影響。 / The executive power in semi-presidentialism is shared by the president and prime minister where the prime minister will control executive power with a weak president, and the political practice will be like those found in parlimentarism. There are very few articles examining the difference between parlimentarism and semi-presidentialism with a weak president. This paper compares the political practice of semi-presidentialism with a weak president and parlimentarism in different countries. The case selection criteria of a weak president is based on Wu(2012). In his research, quasi-parlimentarism is a subtype of semi-presidentialism, that the president has weak power. The result of this research demonstrates that effective number of parties in parliamentary, probability of non-party prime minister, president and prime minister in the same party have no significant difference between two institutions. This means that in the quasi-parlimentarism the coattail effect of a presidential election does not ensure more seats for a large party, and the president has a weak power to appoint the cabinet. Although the duration of the term of a prime minister has no significant difference, the hazard of early election, and probability of prime minister renewal in quasi-parlimentarism is less than parlimentarism. This means that a president in quasi-parlimentarism has blocked dissolution of parliamentary, and the prime minister cannot call for an early election at his or her favorable time. In summary, the political practice of semi-presidentialism is different than parlimentarism. Presidential power is an important feature of semi-presidentialism, even in small presidential power, a semi-presidentialism country, and its president have great influence on politics.

資本資產定價模型 (CAPM) 由Sharp (1964)、Lintner (1965)及Black (1972)發展出後，近年來已被廣泛的應用於衡量證券之預期報酬率與風險間之關係。一般而言，衡量結果之估計有兩個階段，首先由時間序列分析估計出貝它(beta)係數，然後再檢定廠商或投資組合之平均報酬率與貝它係數之關係。 Fama與MacBeth (1973)利用最小平方法估計貝它係數，再將由橫斷面迴歸方法所得出之斜率係數加以平均後，以統計t-test檢定之。然而以最小平方法估計係數，其估計值很容易受離群值之影響，因此本研究考慮以穩健估計 (robust estimator)來避免此一問題。另外，本研究亦將長期資料分析 (longitudinal data analysis) 引入CAPM裡，期望能檢定貝它係數是否能確實有效地衡量出系統性風險。 論文中以台灣股票市場電子業之實證分析來比較上述不同方法對CAPM的結果，資料蒐集期間為1998年9月至2001年12月之月資料。研究結果顯示出，穩健估計相對於最小平方法就CAPM有較佳的解釋力。而長期資料分析模型更用來衡量債券之超額報酬部分，是否會依上、中、下游或公司之不同而不同。 / The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) of Sharp (1964), Lintner (1965) and Black (1972) has been widely used in measuring the relationship between the expected return on a security and its risk in the recent years. It consists of two stages to estimate the relationship between risk and expected return. The first one is that betas are estimated from time series regressions, and the second is that the relationship between mean returns and betas is tested across firms or portfolios. Fama and MacBeth (1973) first used ordinary least squares (OLS) to estimate beta and took time series averages of the slope coefficients from monthly cross-sectional regressions in such studies. However it is well known that OLS is sensitive to outliers. Therefore, robust estimators are employed to avoid the problems. Furthermore, the longitudinal data analysis is applied to examine whether betas over time and securities are the valid measure of risk in the CAPM. An empirical study is carried out to present the different approaches. We use the data about the Information and Electronic industry in Taiwan stock market during the period from September 1998 to December 2001. For the time series regression analysis, the robust methods lead to more explanatory power than the OLS results. The linear mixed-effect model is used to examine the effects of different streams and companies for the security excess returns in these data.

本文以「代書」作為考察核心，剖析代書在台灣經歷性質相異政權統治下，代書內涵與意義呈現何種轉變，以及代書定著於台灣社會的歷史動因。 今日台灣社會法律事務的分工具有濃厚「日本因素」。日治時期的代書不再單純扮演「代筆」腳色，在「生活法律化」的脈絡下，代書成為國家與人民的對話窗口。代書與台灣人的接觸表現在法院訴訟、土地登記、政府行政規制等面向，由於國家對民間滲透力道日益強大，連帶為代書撐起一片執業空間。代書在日治時期的職業化與專門化，伴隨近代國家腳步而來，也因此在職業建構、自我與社會觀感上，深受國家力量左右。 代書的專業化表現在業務內容緊貼國家法律。1923年以後因日本內地「司法代書人法」(1935年改稱司法書士法)施行於台灣，導致代書分化為司法與行政代書人。司法代書人的管理、考選交由各地方法院長；行政代書人仍由地方州廳警察進行管理。相較以往警察當局僅要求代書人身分素行，法院更著重從業者的法律專業能力，水準約與法院書記相當。司法代書人不論在人數、地域分布及可親性上，都比辯護士具有優勢，對於近代西方法的傳播，特別是物權概念以及西式法院使用上，影響力不容小覷。由於法院將司法代書人視為輔助司法運作機制之一，調控從業人數，讓司法代書人維持在水準以上，吸引不少台灣人投入此一由國家「法律」所承認的職業，在日治中後期改變了原以日本人為主的職業族群結構。 戰後國民黨政府在其歷史經驗中，並無相類似於台灣本地的代書脈絡，因此對於代書的認識與需求，仍停留在舊中國的歷史記憶。戰前台灣的代書脈絡，當局先暫以「司法書記」與「土地代書人」保留。但前者在1969年以「疏減訟源」為由遭廢，自此消失在國家法中；後者由廢除轉向接受的歷程中，跌宕起伏，耗費極大社會成本。國家長期對代書採取消極態度，民間仍舊延續日治以來與代書的互動經驗，雖國家法與民間對代書的體認不相重合，但代書在民間所累積的厚實法律生活基礎，終讓原無代書之制中華民國法體制，融入台灣民間社會既有歷史經驗，承認代書的存在意義與價值。

本研究的主要目的是檢視倒傳導神經網路是否具有人類在分類學習上所呈現出來的學習效應 — 競爭學習、遮蔽效應與不相關線索的影響。在實驗中，我們採用兩種倒傳導神經網路，來測試激發函數是否會影響倒傳導神經網路的學習。此兩種倒傳導神經網路分別採用sigmoid激發函數與hyperbolic-tangent激發函數。實驗結果顯示，以sigmoid為激發函數與以hyperbolic-tangent為激發函數的倒傳導神經網路都具有這三個學習效應。還有，以sigmoid為激發函數的倒傳導神經網路所呈現出來的學習效應比以hyperbolic-tangent為激發函數的倒傳導神經網路來得顯著。本研究的次要目的在於瞭解有效性（使用性）與敏感度分析的數值是否有對應關係。實驗結果顯示，線索A與線索B的敏感度分析數值差異可以反映出線索A與線索B的有效性差異。然而，敏感度分析數值卻無法準確地顯示線索的有效性數值。 / The main objective of this research is to examine whether back propagation neural networks (BP) have the learning effects found in human category learning — competitive learning, overshadowing and the deleterious of an irrelevant cue. Two kinds of BP, BP with sigmoid activation function and BP with hyperbolic-tangent activation function, are investigated to see if the activation function will make BP behave differently. According to the results of our experiments, these three learning effects are demonstrated both in BP with sigmoid and BP with hyperbolic-tangent, but they seems more significant in BP with sigmoid than in BP with hyperbolic-tangent. The second objective of our research is to see if there is a correspondence between the validity (the utilization) and the value of sensitivity analysis, R. From the results of our experiments, we observe that the difference between values of sensitivity analysis with respect to Cue A and Cue B reflects the difference of the validities between Cue A and Cue B. However, the value of sensitivity analysis does not show exactly what validity a cue is.

金融危機是一種反常的金融現象，其共同的現象是資金外流、貨幣兌美元大幅貶值、股價重挫、經濟成長衰退、百業蕭條，這就是金融危機。而近代的金融危機趨勢不再只是單一區域的問題，就由這次1997下半年自泰國貨幣開始貶值的貨幣危機，經過一連串的蔓延效應後，影響所及不限於東南亞地區，更擴及俄羅斯、東歐、拉丁美洲等地，造成全球主要新興市場和新興工業國家的經濟遭受嚴重打擊，儼然已變成全球金融危機。 大部分過去經濟學者一開始均用傳統貨幣危機理論來分析金融危機，如Krugman在1979年提出標準的「第一代危機模型」，其中強調經濟基本面的持續惡化，導致維持固定匯率區間的制度遭到阻力，也因此產生了貶值的壓力，也就是由經濟的實質面去影響到金融面。但有鑑於這次亞洲金融危機並非以基本面因素來解釋即可令人信服，必須配合經濟趨勢的潮流，再加入金融面因素來探討以補基本面理論的不足，尤其再加入因金融恐慌的自我實現危機型態以及傳染蔓延因素，兩者互相配合以求能更完整分析為何這次金融危機能襲擊全球新興市場的原因。 此外，本文並描述各國因受金融危機衝擊所帶來的影響，以及各國政府採取何種因應措施，最後仍不敵國際投機客和市場預期心理下，紛紛請求IMF的支援。但IMF的援助貸款附帶有嚴苛條件，這些國家在實行IMF的政策後卻帶來經濟更加萎縮的事實。本文亦針對IMF的各項政策提出質疑與探討，並期研擬出更正確的政策方針。台灣在這次金融危機中雖相較受創較輕，但不容否認仍對台灣經濟社會帶來許多衝擊，本文亦分析台灣金融制度的問題，並且提出各項因應政策的比較分析。最後，匯總幾點本文研究結論與建議。 第一章 導論…………………………………………1 第一節 研究背景與目的…………………………………………1 第二節 研究內容與架構…………………………………………3 第三節 研究方法與流程…………………………………………5 第二章 金融危機發生的原因………………………7 第一節 第一代危機模型…………………………………………8 第二節 基本面因素…………………………………………….10 第三節 金融面實質現象的主要論點………………………….25 第三章 金融危機的原因--系統性風險的探討……46 第一節 系統性風險下的危機………………………………….48 第二節 第二代危機模型……………………………………….52 第三節 傳染蔓延……………………………………………….58 第四章 金融危機對世界各國的衝擊………………61 第一節 危機發生前的總體經濟條件………………………….62 第二節 1997上半年危機前的苦難……………………………65 第三節 1997年貨幣危機的蔓延效應…………………………67 第四節 金融危機的因應政策………………………………….70 第五節 與1930年代經濟大蕭條比較…………………………75 第五章 金融危機對台灣的影響……………………77 第一節 基本面優勢…………………………………………….78 第二節 金融危機的影響與台灣金融問題…………………….81 第三節 台灣所採取的因應政策………………………………86 第四節 金融危機的教訓和經驗萃取………………………….92 第六章 結論…………………………………………94 第一節 本文主要發現………………………………………….95 第二節 本文政策性意涵……………………………………….96 第三節 研究建議……………………………………………….98