自一九七七年Ainger,Lovell,and Schmidt 發表隨機性邊界生產函數估計方法一文以 後，這項方法便廣泛地應用於廠商生產技術效率的估計。然而， Ainger，et al的方 法係利用單一年度橫斷面資料，方法中有一些缺失，例如：技術無效率部份的統計分 配假設、技術無效率部份與生產投入可能存在某些相關，以及技術無效率可能會隨廠 商經營期間而變化。本文的目的，即嚐試利用橫斷面與時間數列混合資料來修正上述 缺點，分析對象為台灣地區的外人投資廠商，包含電子電器、基本金屬、橡塑膠製品 、化學等產業，時間由民國64年至71年共八年。 台灣地區自一九五二年引進直接外人投資，外資在我國的經濟發展過程扮演重要角色 。過去有關台灣地區外人投資的文獻甚多，然而有關外資廠商生產效率的研究卻不多 見，直至目前僅 Chen and Tang(1987)，劉錦添與蔡偉德(1989)兩篇，且均偏重於橫 斷面的分析。本文將利用近年來發展的Panel Data生產技術效率測定方法來進行，文 中主要參考Schmidt and Sickles(1984) 與Cornwell，Schmidt and Sickles (1988) 兩篇著作。在實證中，假設廠商生產函數為Cobb-Douglas函數，分別利用「固定效果 」(fixed effect)及「隨機效果」(random effect) 二種模型。固定效果模型認為廠 商生產技術效率差異為一固定係數，反映於迴歸式截距項的差異；而隨機效果模型假 設生產術效率項目為隨機變數，效率的差異反映於迴歸式中殘差項的差異。此外，由 於生產因素投入與效率可能存在相關，為得到具有一致性的估計值，本文將利用工具 變數方法來修正。最後，本文分析不同年度廠商效率之變化，並探討造成效率變化之 原因。

1978年中國大陸在經濟上採取改革開放政策後，中國大陸克服資金不足、技術落後等問題，經濟快速成長、人民生活水準和人均生產總值皆大幅提升。但中國大陸內部卻面臨各地區經濟發展的程度有極大落差的困局。為此，中國大陸政府提出多項區域發展政策，期能撫平區域發展不均衡的差距，「西部大開發」即為其中之一，希望能藉此一舉改善西部目前發展上的弱勢。但是西部地區要脫離落後狀態朝向發展所需要之條件究竟為何?西部大開發政策所切入之角度是否正中西部所需?本文將由影響外商投資西部的決定性因素，來評估西部大開發政策之成效。透過1997至2005年外商對中國西部地區投資的追蹤資料，搭配固定效果模型的估計，分析影響外商至西部進行投資的趨勢及決定性因素為何，並以估計之結果檢視「西部大開發」政策是否切中西部發展所需，確實改善西部投資環境。 根據實證結果顯示，吸引外商至西部進行投資的決定性因素有四，分別為相對工資率、基礎建設、礦產資源，以及外資開放程度。其他的變數如市場大小、勞動力素質、國營企業比重、中央移轉性支付比例以及優惠政策等，皆未有顯著影響。 關鍵詞：西部大開發、外來直接投資、固定效果模型、決定因素 分類號：B23、C33、F21、R58 / Since China has adopted the so-called “open door policy” in 1978, it has overcame its shortage of economic investment and lagged technology by accepting foreign direct investment（FDI） and the “east-tilted” policy. Two decades later, while China enjoys its high economic growth rate, it has to solve the dilemma of keeping economy growing or balancing the regional disparity. Hence the China government has proposed the “Western Region Development” policy to facilitate the slow-growing economy in west China. Since FDI has played an important role in China economical development, the purpose of this study is to investigate the foreign direct investment in West China, and the flowing issue is using the results to evaluate the efficiency of Western Region Development policy, to see if the policy meet the need of western regional development. This study has based upon the panel data for western region during the period of 1997-2005 and fixed-effect model to investigate the determinants of FDI in West China. The result shows relative wage rate, infrastructure, mine resource, and openness to the rest of the world. Finally, in order to reduce the mistakes occurred in models and enable the study more rigorous, uses more methods to test the models and the result. Keywords: Western Region Development, Fixed-Effect Model, Foreign Direct Investment, Determinants JEL Classification: B23、C33、F21、R58

本文採雙因子固定效果模型(Two-Factor Fixed-Effects Model)，利用中 華人民共和國國家統計局1998 年至2007 年資料，排除台港澳等旅客，研 究中國大陸各省市地區國外入境遊客人次，探討影響各地區入境遊客人次 之決定因素，以及其影響程度。實證模型採用之解釋變數分別為各地區交 通便利性、星級飯店旅館數、人均可支配所得、外資投入總額、製造業比 重、人均醫療機構數、園林與綠地面積、鄰近地區旅遊到訪人數、前兩年 旅遊到訪人數、人均貿易額、平均降水量、降水量變異數以及各地區特質 效果以及時間效果。而被解釋變數為中國大陸各省市地區接待國外入境遊 客人次，經由迴歸分析發現影響中國大陸各地區吸引外國遊客之決定因素 有、星級飯店旅館數、外資投入總額、人均醫療機構數、園林與綠地面積、 前兩年旅遊到訪人數、人均貿易額、平均降水量。並分析中國大陸各地區 之旅遊觀光產業之發展方向，最後則是對觀光產業發展進行政策建議。 / This article is aimed at the factors why visitors visit those regions in mainland China. This study will firstly review literatures about the demand of tourism. By viewing all the discussions, we tried to find out the most likely factors, and the two-factor fixed-effects model was used to analyze these various factors. Data for this analysis was provided by the National Bureau of Statistics People's Republic of China from 1998 to 2007. Several likely factors were taken into consideration as independent variables: the convenience of local traffic, the number of hotels, per capita disposable income, the total amount of foreign investment, the manufacturing sector, the per capita number of medical institutions, gardens and green area, the number of tourist visits around, The number of tourist visiting the first two years, the per capita volume of trade, the average rainfall, rainfall variation and the characteristics effects, and time effects. We used the numbers of foreign visitors of each region of China as dependent variables. The results showed that the factors which would significantly attract foreign tourists were the number of hotels, the total amount of foreign investment, per capita number of medical institutions, gardens and green area, the first two years the number of visiting tourists, the per capita volume of trade, and the average rainfall.

自2002年中共十六大訂定的2020年「全面建設小康社會」之後，恩格爾係數在中國大陸社會經濟領域的地位就大為升高，儼然成為確定生活水平最常用的標準，各地區、省市無不爭相報導本地生活水平已到了「小康」或者「富裕」階段。隨著恩格爾係數受到人民以及地方政府、媒體關注程度提高，更多的質疑也伴隨而來。本碩士論文的研究目的有二：第一，尋找影響中國大陸城鄉恩格爾係數起伏的因素；第二，這些因素影響程度的多少。 就實證結果而言，食品價格指數、依賴比與城鎮恩格爾係數成正向關係；實質收入、物價指數、耐用品消費支出、房地產價格指數、醫療、衣著、教育消費支出與恩格爾係數成負向關係。農村居民方面，實質收入、食品價格指數、房地產價格指數與恩格爾係數成正向關係；物價指數、依賴比、耐用品、醫療、教育、衣著支出與恩格爾係數成負向關係。 由於影響城鄉恩格爾係數的因素各不相同，如果要優化城鎮的消費結構、提高人民生活水平，則應從耐用品消費、教育等支出項目著手，收入已經不是影響城鎮居民恩格爾係數的重要因素；而要提升農村的消費結構及生活水平，則應更注意提高農民收入、注意食品價格指數的起伏，這比成天宣稱恩格爾係數降到多低、達到甚麼階段，更能幫助提升人民的生活水平。然目前中國大陸仍以恩格爾係數最為影響人民生活水平唯一指標，如果沒有輔以其他指標，這對於評價人民生活質量，將有如以管窺豹，無法窺得全貌。 / The importance of Engel's coefficient in Mainland China, has been put on the table since 2002. After the The Sixteenth National Congress of the CPC , ‘Build a Well-off Society in an All-Round Way’has become the main goal in socio-economic area in Mainland China. The position in the area would greatly increase, becoming the most commonly used criteria for determining standard. City are all competing to coverage of local standard of living has come to a "well-off" or "off" stage. As the Engel's coefficient by the people, as well as local governments, higher levels of media attention, more questions are followed. The purposes of this paper are: looking for the factors in Mainland China of urban and rural Engel’s coefficient ups and downs; and how much impact these factors. The empirical result shows: FCPI, dependent ratio, have positive effects on Engel’s Coefficient in the urban; and real income, CPI, PIRE, household facilities, medicine, clothing, education expenditure, have the negative effect. In rural area, real income, FCPI, PIRE, have the positive effect on Engel’s Coefficient; and CPI, dependent ratio, household facilities, medicine, clothing, education expenditure, have the negative effect. To sum up, there are different factor to affect Engel’s Coefficient in urban and rural area. And Engel’s Coefficient is not the only indicate showing the level of people’s living. We should use more indicates to estimate living standard.

本文係針對台灣地區各縣市1999至2008年之老人安養機構設立之床位數進行分析，利用雙因子固定效果模型（two-factor fixed effects model）探討台灣地區各縣市老人安養機構設立之重要影響變數，以及這些變數對於老人安養機構設立床位數影響程度之強弱。本文首先將文獻之檢閱做整理介紹，先概述至今國內外討論老人安養機構設立及使用之相關文章重要觀點，了解這些文章作者的研究時間與空間範圍、所使用分析方法、論點及其變數設定，在最後與本研究之結論相互比較，觀察文獻與本研究之間是否具有一致性。 由於本論文重視各地區變數之影響，故本研究使用具地域性之各縣市數據資料作為變數，經由資料蒐集，將合適之變數納入研究考量，參閱文獻資料，加上能夠取得之數據資料為考量。本文將討論下列變數：台灣地區實質薪資、各縣市老年人口數、各縣市人口密度、各縣市教育程度為大專及以上人口之比率、各縣市失業率、各縣市女性勞動參與率、各縣市15歲以上人口婚姻狀況有偶人數比率、各縣市出生率、各縣市外籍與大陸配偶人數、各縣市社福外籍勞工人數以及各縣市每萬老人接受居家服務人次等十一個變數。對於老人安養機構設立數之關係，觀察其影響程度，了解各地區差異，期能對政府提供具體的政策建議，並對未來各縣市公私立老人安養機構之設立提供參考。 / This study analyses the number of the beds established of the long-term care (LTC) facilities of each city and county in Taiwan between 1999 and 2008, using “two-factor fixed effects model” to explore some of the important influential variables of the long-term care facilities of each city and county, and the strength of the relation of these variables of the hospital beds. This article firstly introduces and reviews some articles and studies that are basically related, and overview the important points of view of the establishment of the long-term care facilities, to understand the analytical methods and the arguments of these articles and authors. As the importance of this thesis, the effect of regional variables, the study uses cities and counties level variables. Through data collection, using the variables in the study that are considered appropriate. Refer to the literature, adding with data obtained for the considerations. This article will discuss the following variables: the real wage of Taiwan each year, the number of counties and cities in the elderly population, the population density, the population with tertiary education level, the unemployment rate, the female labor force participation rate, the population over the age 15 that have marital status, the proportion of birth rate, the number of foreign and mainland spouses, the number of the welfare of foreign workers per 10,000 of the elderly receiving home care people, totally 11 variables. To establish the relationship between the number of observed effect level of long-term care facilities of each city and county, to understand the regional differences, to provide the government on specific policy recommendations. In the future, we expect to provide the public and private sectors the reference establishment of nursing agencies of each city and county.

目前超低生育率現象，已對整體社會的走向、國家經濟的發展、生活思維的方式等都產生了相當大的影響。換言之，生育不僅是婦女本身的問題，它與國際社會的動態、經濟的全球化、企業的國際化、現代的子女教育、社會的性別教育、老年人的護理等都有著相當緊密的關係。因此，本研究的主要目的，在於探討臺灣各縣市房地產價格對生育率的影響，並瞭解臺灣生育率持續下降的癥結所在，找出可能影響生育率下降的主要因素加以分析。 本文利用臺灣23個縣市別的追蹤資料，涵蓋期間為2000年至2008年，採雙因子固定效果模型進行實證分析。估計結果發現，在控制其他變數不變之下，在生育率遞延二期時，臺灣各縣市平均地價對生育率為負影響，且在生育率遞延三期時更為顯著，兩者之間的資源排擠效果更為強大。而其他影響臺灣生育率的主要因素，如：各縣市農業人口比例、各縣市粗結婚率、與外國人結婚人數比例皆呈顯著正影響；臺灣各縣市平均地價、原住民人數比例及婦女勞動參與率皆呈顯著負影響。 依本研究結果顯示，房地產價格是影響臺灣生育率相當重要的因素，政府應需高度正視此問題並有所作為。建議未來政府在訂定國家發展政策時，除需研擬更多提升生育率的策略，如：降低父母生育子女的機會成本、改善學前幼托體系，以及加強減輕家庭育兒壓力的宣導工作等，並可增加控制「臺灣房地產價格」及避免房價炒作之策略，以促進國家永續發展及增強國際競爭力。 / The current low fertility rate has been a great impact on our entire social trend, the development of national economy, and the way we think. That is, fertility is not only women’s consideration, but also an issue connected closely to international society, economical globalization, internationalization of business, children education, sex education, and nursing care of the elders. As a result, the main purpose of this paper lies on the effect of average land price on fertility rate in Taiwan. This article uses the panel data of the 23 counties and cities of Taiwan from 2000 to 2008, and does the evidence-based analysis by two-factor fixed-effects model. We found that the average land price has conspicuously positive effect on the fertility rate in Taiwan. While other main factors affect the fertility rate in Taiwan such as the proportion of farm-workers, crude marriage rate, and the proportion of marriage with the foreigners have conspicuously positive effects on it; on the other hand, female labor force participation and the proportion of aborigine have conspicuously negative effects on it. According to our study, average land price is the most important factor which affects the fertility rate in Taiwan, and the government should face the problem and do something to it. When making policy, it is suggested the government may take into consideration of how to control the housing price in Taiwan and avoid housing price speculation.

1994年財政分權以後，中國大陸城鄉收入差距經歷了一段縮小又擴大的變化，許多學者開始將研究焦點放在財政分權對於城鄉收入差距的影響層面。為了瞭解財政分權對於城鄉收入差距到底造成何種影響，本研究目的有以下三點：一、為探討財政分權對於城鄉收入差距是否造成影響，二、為瞭解制度因素、地方政府財政支出對於城鄉收入差距是否造成影響，三、有鑑於財政上絕對財政中央集權與財政地方分權可能是造成城鄉收入差距擴大的兩個極端，不同於過去的相關研究，本研究認為財政分權與城鄉收入差距間，可能存在非線性的關係，因此在本研究中變數中加入財政分權平方項，對於這樣的假設進行檢測。 本研究針對中國大陸1995至2008年29個省市地區資料，以雙因子固定效果模型進行研究。根據實證結果顯示，在財政自主分權指標對於城鄉收入差距的影響層面，在財政自主小於臨界水準時，隨著財政自主逐漸提高，將會縮小城鄉收入差距；但其負向效果將隨著財政自主提高後逐漸減弱，到達某個臨界水準後，財政自主對於城鄉收入差距的影響將由負轉正。意即中國大陸地方政府財政自主分權指標與城鄉收入差距間呈現非線性的關係，而是呈現類似正U型的曲線。在其他影響城鄉收入差距的變數方面上，本研究發現二元經濟結構係數、財政支出分權指標對於城鄉收入差距有正向的影響，而科技技術財政支出對於城鄉收入差距有負向的影響。透過本研究之結果，可以解釋財政分權對於城鄉收入差距影響結論不一致的說法，進而瞭解縮小地區性城鄉收入差距的最適財政分權程度。 / This purpose of this study is to investigate the changes in mainland China’s regional urban-rural income differential and its determinants during the period of 1995 to 2008. This study uses provincial-level data to analyze whether or not fiscal decentralization provides a positive effect for urban-rural income differential.In order to examine the role of fiscal decentralization in China's regional urban-rural income differential, this study establishes two empirical models with the square term of fiscal decentralization as an independent variable. After we estimate the two-way fixed-effects model of the urban-rural income differential equation, the empirical result shows the financial autonomy of local governments in China and regional urban-rural income differential relationship is nonlinear, but the show is U-shaped curve.

區域間由於發展背景與功能取向不同，以致各地區社會福利支出比例有所差異，對治安與生活品質亦造成不同的影響。社會福利制度是促進整體社會平等、維持人民生存的重要體制；犯罪人口的多寡，則是影響國家成長與進步的重要社會問題之一。本研究主要目的為探討台灣地區社會福利支出對總犯罪率、各年齡層（少年、青年與成年）及失業者犯罪人口率之影響程度，並進一步分析不同社會福利補助支出對總體犯罪率及上述不同群體的個別影響方向。研究範圍為1999-2009年台灣地區23個縣市別的追蹤資料（panel data），利用雙因子固定效果模型（two-way fixed-effect model）同時分析各縣市之個別特質與時間趨勢效果，可對討論議題提供精確的估計結果。研究結果顯示，台灣各縣市社會福利支出與總體犯罪率間不存有顯著關係。進一步分析五種社會福利補助支出，發現家庭生活扶助對於改善整體及各年齡層的犯罪問題皆具有良好效果；其他如就學生活補助、醫療補助與急難救助對部分族群之犯罪問題亦有正面幫助。唯失業給付對犯罪問題並無正面影響。因此建議可藉由調整社會福利支出的比例以降低犯罪問題的發生。 / As the mode of growth and orientation policy in various area are different, resulting in proportion of social welfare spending and influence on public security and quality of life are also different. This study aims to investigate the influence of social welfare spending as well as different social welfare assistance on the total crime rate and crime rate of population of specific age groups and unemployed in Taiwan. Using the cross-regional panel data of 23 counties during the period 1999-2009 in Taiwan. The empirical results from two-way fixed-effect model found that there is no significant relationship between social welfare spending and crime rate. However, analyzing the further five social welfare assistances with regard to improve crime problem has been proved, especially living support assistance. Therefore, this study suggests that the criminal coping strategy is proposed to adjust proportion social welfare spending to reduce criminal problems.

近年來，全球氣候變遷問題已嚴重影響人類生活，而世界各國也逐漸意識到已開發國家和開發中國家必須共同合作以解決此問題。京都議定書中的清潔發展機制 (CDM) 即是讓已開發國家與開發中國家共同實踐減量目標的一種彈性減量機制，然而過去文獻對於其減排成效的看法並不一致。有鑒於此，本文以參與CDM計畫的20個開發中國家和16個已開發國家為研究對象，探討CDM計畫對其2003至2008年二氧化碳減量之影響。根據兩階段最小平方法之固定效果模型的實證結果顯示，CDM計畫能減少開發中國家的二氧化碳排放量，但經認證的排放減量額度 (CERs) 有被過量核發之現象；另一方面，CDM計畫對已開發國家的減排效果則無影響。 / In recent years, global climate change problem has affected humans’ life badly. Therefore, it is gradually realized that the developed countries and developing countries have to cooperate to solve the problem. Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) is one of the flexibility mechanisms defined in the Kyoto Protocol, and it allows the developed countries, in cooperation with developing countries, to fulfill the emission-reduction targets. However, the emissions abatement effects of CDM in the literatures are diverse. Accordingly, this paper uses 20 developed countries and 16 developing countries as an empirical case to examine the impact of CDM on carbon dioxide emissions abatement from 2003 to 2008. According to fixed effects two-stage least squares, CDM projects reduced the carbon dioxide emissions of developing countries, but the certified emissions reductions (CERs) were excessively issued. On the other hand, CDM projects didn’t have an impact of emissions abatement on developed countries.

中國大陸自改革開放之後，其經濟成長之快速，使得全球眾多的學者投入中國大陸議題的研究。隨著世界的開發，有限的資源不斷被使用，造成資源愈來愈少，也由於資源的稀少性，因此市場經濟方為競爭的經濟。參與競爭必須首先具備競爭力，作為國民經濟重要組成單元的區域經濟，如何應對日趨激烈的競爭，如何培育構建、提升保持具有區域特色的競爭力，就成為迫在眉睫的問題 本研究之研究目的主要有以下幾點：第一，希望能藉由相關理論文獻，解釋財政地方分權對中國省、市之間競爭力是否會有所影響或是關聯，將以此為本研究之理論基礎，並且進行實證的檢驗；第二，將以1994年中國財政改革以後之財政相關資料，利用中國31個省、市的追蹤資料，資料蒐集期間涵蓋2000年至2008年，以各年各省、市的綜合競爭力作為衡量該省、市的競爭力指標，以期能夠了解各地區競爭力的影響情形； 第三，本研究建立一個二階段固定效果模型，來檢視中國31個省市財政分權對其綜合競爭力的影響，並將各省市的情形做歸納；第四，從實證模型中發現，財政地方分權與區域綜合競爭力間的關聯性為一非線性關係且具有U型曲線關係；最後，利用實證結果來提供具體的政策建議。