在線性模型中以計算容易，解釋方便為著稱，但是比須加入許多嚴格限制 ，而對於事後之模型檢測亦要花費番功夫。，而可加性模型只要函數給定 ，backfitting 演算法收歛即可。可加性模型除了保留線性模型的加法性 及解釋能力外，尚且提高了估計準度。在美、日、中、英、德五個國家的 保險市場中，雖然判定係數的提升亦大有斬獲 (0.85->0.9957)，然而在 台灣我們根據實證 一、提升統計應用水準，大幅提高模型變數的解釋能 力，模型內MSE(Me Square Error)大幅降低。(見表5-1、表5-2、表5-3、 表5-4、表5-5、表5-6、二、維持了線性模型方便的解釋能力。三、提升 估計水準，用以比較二種模型之優劣時，採1991年保費收入之實際值與估 計值之比較(見表 5-3，表 5-6，表 5-9，表 5-12，表 5- 15)，可發現 線性模型誤差率與可加性模型誤差率的比值美國為2倍、日本為12倍、臺 灣為4.55倍、英國為2.95倍、德國為2.95倍。四、函數以圖形方式表示顯 而易見。可加性模型所做的保費收入估計模型 / An Application of Insurance in Additive Model：United States's, Japan's,Taiwan's,England's and germnany's Life Insurance Model between Premiums and Macro-variables comparison.

本研究之樣本取自1991年7月1日至2010年3月之月資料，探討各總體經濟變數包括：利率、匯率(美元對新台幣)、M1B、出口、GDP、領先指標綜合指數與大陸及美國兩股市，對台股指數之影響。實證結果顯示，道瓊工業指數為影響台股加權指數最具代表性與領先的指標，大陸股市則非如一般所預期對台股指數變動有重要解釋能力。且道瓊工業指數、利率、M1b、GDP對台股具有領先的單向因果關係。 在衝擊反應函數及變異數分解中，除了道瓊工業指數為判斷台股指數變動最重要因素外，利率與貨幣供給則扮演著解釋台股變動另一重要的角色，利率調升對台股指數之影響為先正後負，當利率調升前，投資者會事先反應，但調升後便會開始調節，反而對台股造成負向影響；而GDP及出口在變異數分解中占台股變異數比例是相對次高的比重，說明台股的變動反應了經濟的基本面因素，台股的變動亦會受其影響，惟此二項變數屬於落後指標，只能用在事後分析。而(美元兌新台幣)匯率及領先指標綜合指數則對台股變動無顯著解釋能力。

本論文包含二篇與公司財務相關之文章，第一篇文章嘗試在考量總體經濟條件和公司生產力衝擊下，建構一個簡單結構式模型以探討公司之資本結構決策。特別的是，由該模型可得到公司最適負債比率與總體經濟條件衝擊之報酬波動性呈反向關係，惟公司最適負債比率與公司生產力衝擊之報酬波動性呈正向關係。第二篇文章係利用對稱寡占產業均衡模型，以探討產業內經理人薪酬決策之異質性。即使產業內所有公司皆為同質，在模型均衡下存在有些公司會採取激勵性薪酬，而其他公司則不採取激勵性薪酬。該模型預期當市場競爭性增加時，產業內公司經理人薪酬決策會更具異質性。此外，上述二篇文章皆分別以美國製造業資料進行實證，並且實證結果均符合其模型之預期。 / This dissertation proposes two essays about corporate finance. Essay one develops a simple structural model to investigate a firm’s capital structure choices in consideration of macroeconomic conditions and firm-level productivity shocks. The model particularly generates the implication that the optimal debt ratio is negatively correlated to the return volatility of macroeconomic conditions, but positively correlated to that of firm-level productivity. Essay two is contributed to explore the heterogeneity of the compensation decision within the industry by employing a symmetric oligopoly industry equilibrium model. Within the equilibrium some firms will adopt incentive pay while others will not, even though all firms are ex ante identical. The model predicts that there is more heterogeneity in the compensation decision as the intensity of market competition increases. Both of the two essays further provide empirical evidence of the US manufacturing industry to support the model implications.

生存、獲利以及成長是企業的目標。第二次世界大戰之後，國際性的商業活動快速的成長，隨著全球商業活動自由化、國際化，加上資訊科技的興起，市場全球化與生產全球化為企業創造了機會，也使得企業面臨的競爭環境日趨嚴峻，企業面臨來自全球的挑戰，威脅其生存與獲利。在競爭環境的迅速變動下，企業為了追求永續經營，不斷的成長成為企業生存之必要條件。購併是企業追求快速成長的捷徑之一。 雖然購併能夠幫助企業迅速取得所需要的關鍵資源，但是從所收集的資料顯示，失敗的購併案例還是佔了七成之多，可見成功的購併是一件相當不容易的事。 本研究所描述的個案企業是目前世界上歷史最悠久的化學與製藥公司，公司成立的日期可以回溯到西元1668年。以購併取得所需要的關鍵資源在該企業是常見的作法，所以該企業透過經驗的累積發展出購併相關活動的標準作業程序（SOP）。但是即使已經有豐富的購併經驗，並不是每一件購併案都能夠達成原先所設定的目標。 本研究希望透過研究實際購併案例的啟動購併動機與後續整合行動以印證相關購併理論，並且整理歸納出成功的購併案例中值得學習的作法以及失敗的購併案例中為何失敗的地方以供未來想要採取購併方式的企業作為參考。 歸納個案企業的購併案例得到以下結論。企業選擇購併作為成長方式的動機是為了達成綜效理論中所提及的啟動綜效、營運綜效和市場綜效。至於後續整合行動，在事前必須要有清楚的整合計畫、工作小組、組織架構與人事布局；然後透過即時且透明的溝通管道傳達給每一位員工；並且強化人力資源管理系統讓不管原本是屬於購併公司的員工還是被購併進來的員工都能夠清楚的瞭解自己在購併後的新組織中可能的職涯發展，協助所有員工穩定下來以渡過整合變動期。 / Survive, gain and grow are the targets for all companies. Business environment has been changed and globalization is the mainstream for all business activities after World War II. This change creates opportunities but also bring threats to companies. Companies now have to face challenges from all over the world. Keep growing is the means for companies to keep survival from these challenges. Merger and acquisition（M&A）is one of the shortcuts for companies to pursue fast growth. M&A can help companies to get key resources quickly. However, the chance to get fail is extremely high up to 70% from collected research data. Apparently it is not easy to have a success M&A case. This paper is describing a more than 300 years old pharmaceutical company whom accumulates a lot of experiences in M&A cases from company history. These M&A cases will be analyzed to prove related theories. Key successful factors will also be concluded for companies who will choose M&A as their growth alternative for reference. To sum up illustrated M&A cases, the motivation of a company to trigger M&A is aiming for starting synergy, operating synergy and market synergy. To ensure post-merger integration can proceed smoothly, it requires clear integration plan which contains dedicated task forces for execution, well-thought-out organization structure and important position appointment. Reinforce personnel system to ensure its function can provide necessary and sufficient assistance to all employees timely. Transparent and open communication channels shall be established in order to eliminate insecure atmosphere.

本研究係探討匯率與總體經濟之關聯性，以中國大陸1996第一季至 2013年第一季之總體經濟變數，共計樣本數為69筆季資料。先以1996第一季至 2013年第一季全期數據進行實證分析。再以2005年7月為分界點，分為1996年第一季至2005年第二季及2005年第三季至2013年第一季數據分別進行實證分析。 本論文就REER、GDP、CPI、M2、UNEMP、CHIBOR、FDI、OPEN等總體經濟變數，以單根檢定及建構向量自我迴歸模型進行實證分析，並以Granger因果關係檢定、衝擊反應分析及預測誤差變異數分解，以了解匯率與總體經濟相互間之關係。 實證結果發現，中國大陸匯率與總體經濟間的關係自2005年7月21日匯率改革後逐漸增強，但整體言之匯率與總體經濟間之傳導能力仍然不大，人民幣匯率的變動主要受其自身影響較多，受總體經濟變數的相互影響較小，顯示其外匯市場的開放程度與一個真正開放的經濟體還是有些許差距。 / This research examines the correlation between foreign exchange rates and macroeconomics by using the data of economic variables of China from the 1st quarter of 1996 to the 1st quarter of 2013. The sample contains 69 quarterly data during the entire period, while the reform of Chinese exchange rate on 21st July 2005 is a crucial division. In order to find the correlation between foreign exchange rates and macroeconomics, the research examines the economic variables such as REER, GDP, CPI, M2, UNEMP, CHIBOR, FDI, and OPEN by using unit root test, vector autoregression model, Granger causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition impulse response function. The result of the tests indicates that after the reform of Chinese exchange rate on 21st July 2005, the correlation between exchange rates and macroeconomics has been enhanced, but the connection is not prominent. In other words, the fluctuation of Renminbi is mainly affected by the nation’s policy instead of its macroeconomic factors. Hence, the openness of the Chinese foreign exchange market is still distant from a real open economy.

自1994年開始推動的「社區總體營造」，可謂台灣近十年來最具朝野共識的政策方案之ㄧ。研究者在長達十餘年的實際參與執行過程中，觀察到有兩項未曾間斷且持續操作的社區營造重點工作，其一為社造人才的培育，其二為社區環境空間的改造。而這兩項工作其實就是社區總體營造在台灣推動這十年來，亟欲達成的階段性目標，也對於往後社區營造的永續發展有著關鍵性的影響。 本研究嘗試從參與主體互動關係的角度切入，探討在「社區培力」的觀點下，在民眾參與社區環境空間改造時，所產生的政府、非政府組織與社區民眾，三個參與主體所扮演的角色、定位、功能與任務，以及各參與主體在人才培育的工作中，如何在學習成長的過程中，運用培力的方式以達成有效益的成果累積。 研究者採用行動研究的方法，以苗栗縣為研究場域，並透過對於社區營造、社區培力、民眾參與、社區環境改造與國內外多個案例等的課題分析歸納，並結合苗栗縣推動社區總體營造與社區規畫師等計畫的執行過程中，探究各參與主題的互動關係變化，進而影響其各自的角色、定位、功能與任務的網絡結構，以及有效的社區培力機制。 在經過2001-2005五年間的行動研究歷程，研究者發現三個參與主體間的關係應是由最初的「上下互賴關係」，轉變為「水平互動關係」，方有可能達成「三角互補關係」的理想社區總體營造網絡結構。而在不同的階段中，三參與主體的也應動態的變換不同的角色與相對應的功能與任務，以因時、因地制宜的推動社造工作。尤其非政府組織除了必須具備有「中介、潤滑與形塑」的功能外，還要能「提升社區民眾公共參與層級」的能力。因為，民眾對於公共事務的決策能力並非由其他主體移轉而來，而是在有效的學習成長過程中，創發出來的。而透過本研究引入「契約學習」的學習方式，更確認有效的學習過程應提供「提問式的教育環境」，教學者與學習者在一定的知識基礎上，於動態的互動過程中調整所扮演的角色，進而將所習得的知識內化為生活的一部份，再透過行為外顯呈現。 本研究在苗栗縣的特定情境脈絡下，探討民眾參與社區環境改造此類與生活密切關聯，但又需要專業知識與技能的社區營造面向，如何藉由參與主體間的關係轉變與互動過程，以及學習成長的社區培力機制的運作，應可提供相關研究人員參考，並作為政府、非政府組織與社區民眾彼此互動的依據，進而共同攜手打造社區願景。 關鍵詞：社區總體營造、民眾參與、社區培力、契約學習、社區規畫師、行動研究 / Community building can be seen as one of the most common understanding policies in Taiwan since 1994. Author of this research has been participating in the practical operation for over ten years, and observing two key points. One is talent cultivation; the other one is community space transformation. These two achievements are de facto the staged goals of Taiwan community building through these years. Most importantly, they have potentially influenced the sustainable development of community building. With the angle of interaction of participants, this research tries to discuss that under the view of community empowerment, government, NGOs and community residents become the three main participants when the public takes part in the community space transformation. The roles, position, function and mission of the three participants will be examined here. Besides, for talents cultivation, how do they exert empowerment to accumulate the efficient achievement in the learning process? Action research method is used in this research. MiaoLi County is the research area. Through analyzing the subjects of community building, community empowerment, public participation, community space transformation and overseas cases, and combining the executing process of the community building and community planner plans promoted by MiaoLi County, this research is to study the interacting changes of the above subjects. Furthermore, these subjects are to influence their own roles, position, function, mission network and effective community empowerment mechanism. After five-year action research from 2001 to 2005, this research found that the relation of the above three main participants has changed from “Top-Bottom Dependent Relationship” into “Balanced interaction Relationship”, and been finally moving to “Triangle Inter-complementary Relationship ”, an ideal net structure of community building. In the different stages, the three main participants should also shift different roles, related function and mission to promote community building timely and properly. Especially, except intermediary, lubricating and molding, NGOs should have the capability to promote the level of the public community participation. For the public’s decision ability toward public affairs is not transferred from other objects, but created from the effective learning process. This research introduced “contract learning” to confirm that an adequate learning process should provide an “asking- question education environment ”. Based on certain knowledge basis, teachers and learners have to adjust their roles during interacting, internalize the new knowledge into part of their lives, and behave properly. Under some special situations in Miao-li County, this research talks about the close relation between daily life, professional knowledge and skill of community building while the public participates community environment building. It also examines how these main participants transfer their relation and interacting process, and how to learn the operation of a growing community empowerment mechanism. These related findings and conclusions could provide some positive reference for other researchers. More importantly, it is hoped that government, NGOs and communities to cooperate to accomplish a concrete community vision in accordance with this research in the future. Key words：community building, public participation, community empowerment, contract learning, community planner, action research

品牌延伸策略發展至今，成果相當豐碩，過去倚賴母品牌之品牌權益所延伸而成的子品牌，在廠商用心經營之下，也成為可以獨當一面的品牌，這也為品牌延伸相關研究開創了一片新領域，過去延伸方式都是由母品牌向子品牌延伸，創造延伸槓桿，屬於由上往下的延伸關係，而現在當子品牌也建立起自己的品牌權益之後，也可能改變其忠誠顧客對母品牌的態度。 本研究透過實證，提出種子品牌的概念，也就是廠商可以透過顧客對子品牌的態度忠誠，影響其對母品牌的態度，進而影響其購買意願，為了深入探討此概念，本研究以時尚服飾產業作為標的，研究結果發現，消費者真正關心的是服飾產品本身所提供的價值，對於產品本身的滿意會對消費者的信任與總體滿意度造成影響，實體設備以及人員互動對總體滿意度的影響並不顯著，但人員互動的服務品質卻會對信任造成顯著影響；以往學者所討論的信任對總體滿意度造成影響之假設也得到證實；總體滿意度也會對態度忠誠造成影響；態度影響購買意願的假設也同樣得到證實。 本研究也驗證信任在反饋過程中具有相當重要的地位，除了對子品牌的信任會影響消費者對母品牌的態度之外，其對子品牌的態度忠誠也如同本研究的假設，會對母品牌的態度造成正面影響，種子品牌的概念也得到實證結果支持。

本研究主要在探討台灣壽險業健康保險損失率之影響因素。首先，了解健康險損失率是否因為壽險公司規模不同而有顯著差異。再者，將壽險公司依主要專注之通路類型分為三類，包括業務員通路、經代通路以及其他通路，而觀察通路對於健康險損失率的影響情形。最後，藉由個體變數與總體變數之分析，期望以其他不同的角度協助保險公司未來對於損失率的風險控制。 研究結果發現： (一)當壽險公司之資產規模不同時，對於健康險損失率有顯著差異上的影響。大型壽險公司的平均健康險損失率顯著高於小型壽險公司之健康險平均損失率。 (二)壽險公司行銷通路的注重程度不同，確實會使健康保險損失率產生顯著的差異。研究結果發現其他通路運用程度越高的壽險公司，其健康險損失率顯著比使用經代人通路和業務員通路的壽險公司之損失率低。 (三)本研究發現健康險損失率受到總體因素的影響，一般而言比壽險公司個體因素的影響微弱。個體因素確實會顯著影響壽險公司健康險損失率，而且壽險公司不同的規模型態，其主要影響健康險損失率的因素亦會有所不同。 / This study examines the factors that influence the loss ratio of health insurance policies for life insurance companies in Taiwan. First, this thesis intends to investigate whether there are significant differences in loss ratios among insurers due to firm size. Secondly, the impact of marketing channels on health insurance loss ratio is analyzed where the distribution systems mainly used by insurers are divided into three categories: employee sales, agent/broker channel, and others. Finally, this study conducts regression analyses on the health insurance loss ratio with firm-specific and macroeconomic variables to help insurers in controlling risks in the future. The empirical results are shown as follows. 1.The loss ratios of health insurance vary significantly with firm size. The loss ratio of large insurance companies is significantly higher than that of small insurances companies. 2.Distribution system has a significant impact on the loss ratio of health insurance. When the insurer relies more on other channels, instead of employee sales and agent/broker, the insurer will have lower loss ratio. 3.The impact of macroeconomic variables on the loss ratio of health insurance is less than that of firm-specific variables. Additionally, the influential variables for loss ratio may be different between insurers of large and small sizes.

本研究主要依據國內房地產市場的特性，以生產時間落差、預期景氣與宣告效果、以及總體經濟等三個項目為主軸，針對房地產市場的景氣現象進行探討。首先，由生產階段的生產時間落差為出發點，探討房地產景氣與政府政策衝擊對生產時間落差的影響。再來，探討房地產次市場間的互動關係，瞭解預期景氣與宣告效果對不同房地產次市場景氣的影響。最後，探討總體經濟對房地產景氣的影響。在上述理念體系下，本研究進行各項理論的推演與實證分析，所得結論說明如下： 一、房地產景氣對生產時間影響部份 本文以建照面積與使照面積數量之波動關係，分析房地產景氣對生產時間落差之影響，結果發現使照面積與建照面積間存在穩定的長期關係，但建照可能因景氣不佳而取消，此使得長期建照面積大於使照面積，且建商會視房地產景氣的變動而調整興建速度。當房地產市場景氣時，興建速度較快，不景氣時興建速度較慢，使得生產時間落差會因房地產景氣變動而有所不同。另外，建照面積與使照面積間的關係亦會因政府相關政策的改變而產生衝擊，進而改變生產時間落差的長短。 由此觀之，國內房地產市場應較無預售制度的國家有較佳的市場調整機制，不過國內房地產景氣的波動卻依然劇烈，其原因可能在於政府決策與執行有相當長的時間落差，往往造成介入市場的時機不恰當，使得政府政策不但未能發揮反景氣循環的功能，反而成為助漲、助跌的促媒。另外，建築投資業缺乏健全管理亦是可能的原因之一，造成市場良莠不齊，在未經協調而彼此競爭下，往往錯誤評估個別預期銷售額而惡性競爭所造成。 二、預期景氣與宣告效果對房地產景氣影響部份 透過不同次市場的連結，本文發現當政府政策提前宣告時，將會有明顯的宣告效果產生，使得建商雖面對節節高昇的空屋率，依然大量搶建，但建照面積的增加則會促使房價與租金下跌。當前房地產市場的長期不景氣，政府未充分掌握房地產市場的景氣波動，並審慎評估政策的可能衝擊可說是問題的關鍵。此也意味，若政府日後真有必要再對房地產市場實施類似管制措施時，實應於事前進行謹慎的評估，並慎選實施的時機。 其次，市場參與者的預期在市場運作過程中扮演相當重要的角色，對於不同次市場景氣之影響亦不相同，當預期資本利得愈高時，會使房價上漲，但租金卻會減少，因為屋主願意以相對較低的租金將房屋出租，並由長期的資本利得中獲得補償，此可解釋為何國內長期租金與房價比長期偏低的現象。不過，近年來房地產市場面臨相當長時間的不景氣，加以921大地震對於國人傳統「有土斯有財」的理財觀念應有相當程度的衝擊，在預期資本利得相當微薄、甚至為負的情況下，未來租金可能回到較合理的水準。 三、總體經濟度房地產景氣之影響部份 本文檢視總體經濟變數對不同地區房地產景氣的影響，發現不論台北市或台北縣的預售屋房價與貨幣供給、空屋數、建照面積等變數均具有長期均衡關係存在，表示房地產景氣會因總體經濟變數與房地產市場本身供需變化而調整，但在考量結構變遷下，預售屋房價與建照面積間之關係已有所改變，意味未來在分析兩者間之關係時必須更加慎重。 其次，空屋數對於預售屋房價的影響彈性相對大於貨幣供給以及建照面積的影響，且相關變數對於台北市預售屋房價的影響相對大於台北縣，但台北縣預售屋房價消弭均衡誤差的速度較台北市為快，此乃因台北市住宅供給與需求彈性相對較小，當其他影響變數發生變動時，其預售屋房價受到的影響相對較大，故一旦偏離均衡時，必須花費較長的時間來調整。此結果亦顯示，要解決房地產市場長期的不景氣，從消化空餘屋著手最為有效。另外，不論台北市或台北縣預售屋房價與其他變數間的短期領先或落後關係並不明顯，此可能是因房地產市場自1986-1990年這一波房地產景氣後，已產生結構性變遷所造成。 / This dissertation consisted of three relative essays about real estate cycles. The first paper explores the influence of the real estate cycles on construction lags by analyzing the fluctuations of total floor areas of building permits and usage permits as a reflection of construction lags. Results support that a long-run equilibrium is existing between them; however, building permits may be dropped during a downswing market. In addition, the duration of construction lags is affected by changes in the real estate cycles and by the impacts of policies.　During a time of strong market, the duration of construction lags is cut shorter and is extended when the market is depressed. The second paper presents a simultaneous equation to examine how expectation of market participants and preannouncement of zoning control influence real estate cycles through three housing submarkets: rental market, sales market, and new construction market. One interesting finding is that, before the government announced a change in its zoning policy, builders constructed at maximum capacity despite fact that the real estate market was already depressed. Such construction only worsens the real estate market condition and extends the duration of depressed period. Another interesting finding is that the expected real estate cycles have different effects on rent and housing price. Although high capital gain expectations drive up the housing price, rent continues to decrease. A high vacancy rate, although decreasing the housing price, has little influence on construction starts. The last paper examines the long-term relationships between real estate cycles and macroeconomic variables by using cointegration test and error correction model. I found that both housing price of Taipei City and Taipei County do have long-term relationships with money supply, vacant houses, and new construction, but when considering market structure change, the relationship between housing price and new construction will change. I also found that the vacant houses have more influence on housing price than that of money supply and new construction, and the influences of these three variables on housing price are more sensitive in Taipei City than Taipei County. These results reflect the market structure of Taipei City and Taipei County is different, and the importance to solve vacant houses problem. Another surprise finding is that short-term lead or lag relationships among these variables are not significant. One possible reason is the structure change of real estate market after 1990.

本研究建立含資產價格泡沫的隨機動態一般均衡 (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium, DSGE) 模型，並以此討論貨幣政策與總體審慎政策的效果。泡沫存在於不動產的股票價格上，且不動產與一般資本皆為生產要素。研究顯示，在隨機衝擊下，一般資本的投資與不動產投資呈現負相關。融資擔保率的調控為總體審慎政策的範疇，本文另研究融資擔保率對經濟變數的影響。結果顯示，當擔保率調升時，產出增加、泡沫減少且不動產的股價 (資產價格) 下跌。本文亦討論依循泰勒法則下的貨幣政策與總體審慎政策對產出與資產價格波動的影響；結果顯示，在經濟景氣時實施緊縮貨幣政策可同時減少資產價格與產出的波動，其效果優於總體審慎政策。 / This study established a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model, which contains asset bubble price, and employed DSGE to discuss the effect of the monetary policy and the macro-prudential policy. Bubbles exist in the stock price of the real estate. Real estate and general capital are both the factors of production. The study indicates that, under stochastic impulse, a negative correlation exists between the investment of the general capital and the investment of the real estate. The study also discusses the operation of the collateral rate, a perspective dealing with macro-prudential policy, and how it influences economic variables. The results present that when collateral rate rises, output increases, bubbles decreases and the stock price of real estate (asset price) declines. The study further investigates how monetary policy, which follows the Taylor rule, and macro-prudential policy affect the vibration of the output and the asset price. The result indicates that during economic prosperity, the implementation of tight monetary policy presents better effect than that of macro-prudential policy since it simultaneously decreases variances of output and asset price.