国立情報学研究所で電子化したコンテンツを使用している。

本論文旨在藉助理論研究與歐美等先進國家之實證分析，說明於通貨膨脹及快速變遷 的環境下，利率管制無法有效地應因環境的波動，利率自由化遂成為世界之潮流。我 國利率自由化構想的開端，始於民國六十三年，於本文中詳細介紹現階段下，我國利 率自由化之發展經過，進而探討信用評等制度之建立，及金融制度之改革，以期利率 自由化之發展更臻成熟，最後，就以上之內容，針對各項問題，提出改進建議與解決 方案。 壹、前言 貳、利率自由化的意義與功能 參、自由利率與管制利率之比較分析 肆、世界主要國家推行利率自由化的情形－介紹德、英、美等國之情形 伍、我國利率自由化之發展經過 1.各種短期流通工具之發展 2.短期票卷交易市場之建立 3.公開市場之操作 4.貼現窗口之建立 5.銀行同業拆款中心之設立 6.放款利率彈性之加大 7.利率調整方案之公布與實施 陸、我國推動利率自由化初期所產生的影響 柒、利率自由化與信用評等制度之建立 捌、利率自由化輿金融制度之改革 玖、建議與結論

本研究探討1970年代末以降，智利、南韓與巴西三個新興市場國家，為何在面臨國際經濟自由化的相同政策挑戰時，會產生不同的短期政策回應。這些政策回應的差異最後更造成三國長期金改路徑的分歧。為解釋此研究問題，本研究整合國際與國內分析層次，就國際政策環境與國內政策過程及其產出兩部份，觀察制度否決點與政策關鍵行動者的互動，在長時間下對三國金融自由化改革造成的影響。 首先，本文根據三國金改在「步伐、範圍與程度」上的差異，建構三種不同長期金改路徑，即：「震盪-全面型改革」（shock-comprehensive reform）、「漸進-部分型改革」（gradual-partial reform）與「延緩-有限型改革」（delayed-limited reform）。這三種長期金改路徑的分歧，主要來自三國短期金改類型（即大幅改革、緩慢改革、無改革與改革倒退）變遷的累積。 其次，經由對三國進行個案導向的比較與貫時研究後，本研究除釐清三國長期金改路徑的演變轉折，也發現三國短期金改類型的變動，主要受到不同時期（1）政策關鍵行動者裡反對勢力否決力量的強弱，與（2）執政聯盟的政策取向係屬國家干預或市場導向，兩項因素組合變化的影響。 智利的個案研究結果顯示，1970-2000年智利的「震盪-全面型」金改，主要奠基於Pinochet軍政府，在1975-1989年成功開啟的大幅改革。1990-2000年，民主協定政府接替執政後，這種務實的新自由主義改革路線，透過憲政制度對威權勢力的保護設計，使民主協定政府因反對勢力否決力量強大，只能選擇繼續延續「Pinochet式」的經濟政策。 南韓的個案研究反映出南韓的「漸進-部份型」金改，主要係源自1980-1997年，執政聯盟內代表大財閥利益的韓國工業聯盟，對全面金融自由化的反對。該因素不僅使執政聯盟長期在國家干預與市場導向立場上反覆拉鋸，更導致南韓短期金改類型持續在大幅改革與大幅倒退間擺盪。1997年，南韓經歷嚴重金融危機衝擊，為原本「進退拉鋸」式的長期金改路徑帶來關鍵轉折的契機。 由於舊執政聯盟的結構，因政黨輪替瓦解，並由金大中總統主導的市場改革派控制，同時反對勢力否決力量轉弱，金大中政府因此能順利推動1998-2000年南韓金融體系的結構改革，最終促成過去「漸進-部份型」的長期金改路徑，出現重大轉變。 巴西的個案研究凸顯巴西的「延緩-有限型」金改，係源於政策取向與反對勢力否決力量兩因素，長期未出現發生大幅改革的條件組合。1961-1979年，反對勢力的否決力量由強轉弱，為推動大幅改革提供良好契機，但執政聯盟的政策取向多數時期卻為國家干預。 1985年以後，市場導向的政策取向逐漸在執政聯盟裡取得主導地位，但反對勢力否決力量反而在恢復民主體制後轉強。巴西推動改革的兩項重要條件未能配合，使其長期金改路徑始終無法脫離改革緩慢與延宕的狀態。迄Cardoso民主政府執政後，新自由主義的改革路線在執政聯盟裡取得主導地位，再加上反對勢力的否決力量相對轉弱，才促成巴西出現少見的大幅改革現象。 / The dissertation mainly explains why these three emerging markets, Chile, South Korea and Brazil, while facing the same challenge from the international economic liberalization since the late 1970s, have different short-term policy responses. These differences ultimately create the divergence among these three countries on the long-term financial liberalization reform. This research integrates the domestic and international level of analysis by focusing on two parts, the international policy environment and the domestic policy process and outcome, to observe the interaction between the institutional veto points and the key actors in policymaking and its impact on the financial liberalization reforms among three countries over time. First, this research constructs three typologies of long-term financial liberalization paths by their different reform “pace”, “scope” and “depth”. They are “shock-comprehensive reform”, “gradual-partial reform”, and “delayed-limited reform.” The divergence of these three long-term financial reforms is mainly accumulated by the change of three countries’ short-term type of reform (large reform, gradual reform, non reform and reform reversal) over time. Second, this research clarifies the evolution of the long-term financial liberalization paths of three countries by conducting comparative and longitudinal case-studies. It argues that the change of short-term type of reform is mainly influenced by two causes, i.e. the veto power of opponents among key actors in policymaking (weak or strong) and policy orientations of the ruling coalition (market-oriented or state intervention). The case of Chile shows that the “shock-comprehensive reform paths” during 1970-2000 is mainly based on the successful large financial reform of Pinochet regime from 1975 to 1989. The pro-Pinochet authoritarians checked the change of pragmatic neoliberal reform with the constitutional veto powers after the democratic Concertación government in office and kept Pinochet-style economic policies intact in the end. In South Korea case, the “gradual-partial reform paths” was from the big conglomerates’ (chaebols) opposition to the complete financial liberalization during 1980-1997. It brought the tug of war of ruling coalition’s policy orientation between market-oriented and state intervention, hence contributed to the oscillation of short-term financial liberalization reform types between large reform and reform reversal in South Korea. In 1997, the Asian financial crisis hit the economy of South Korea severely, and brought the turning point of the change of “gradual-partial reform path” in the past. The structure of old ruling coalition was collapsed due to the regime change and the takeover of President Kim Dae-jung, the market reform faction. While the veto power of opposition party was getting weaker, Kim Dae-jung administration was able to boost the structural reform of financial system in South Korean during 1998-2000, and ultimately contributed to the major change of “gradual-partial reform path”. In Brazil, the absence of the combination of policy orientation and veto power of opponents among key actors in policymaking, which may cause the large reform, was the main reason of its “delayed-limited reform”. During 1961-1979, the weakening opponents’ veto power opened the window of opportunity for the large reform, but failed due to the state-intervention policies adopted by the successive ruling coalitions most of time. After the advent of democratic era in 1985, the market-oriented policy was dominant in various democratic ruling coalitions. However, the strengthening veto power of opponents after the recovery of democratic regime became the obstacle of the actualization of reform policy. The mismatch of two causes which may contribute to the happening of large reform was not changed until Cardoso government in office. The neoliberal policy orientation of President Cardoso’s ruling coalition and the weakening veto power of opponents contributed to the rare large reform in the path of delayed and limited financial liberalization in Brazil.

WTO「資訊科技協定」(ITA)於1996年底通過後成效彰顯，為多邊貿易體系部門別自由化方案之典範。然而當前快速的科技發展帶動新興資訊科技產品持續問世，以致該等產品究否屬於ITA通過當時所規範零關稅之產品範圍產生爭議，問題殊值深究。ITA生效以來首宗爭端解決個案即屬適例。按該案係我國、美國與日本於2008年間共同指控歐盟在機上盒、多功能事務機與液晶顯示器等三項資訊科技產品之課稅措施，違反WTO關稅減讓之規範。WTO爭端解決機制如何就科技發展實況解讀ITA產品範圍，對於ITA未來的執行成效具關鍵地位。 有關前揭個案之WTO適法性研究，本文認為WCO/HS公約稅則歸列見解可為參據，另可依據維也納條約法公約(VCLT)第31條與32條之解釋規則，考量全部或是多數會員對於系爭產品關稅待遇的「共同意願」。具體而言，基於VCLT第31條揭示的「本文內容」、「目的與宗旨」、「上下文脈絡」、「後續實務措施」與「相關國際法規範」等，通盤考量解讀歐盟關稅減讓表意涵，倘據此解讀後仍舊模糊難定，則依據VCLT第32條揭示的「條約協定的相關準備工作」與「完成當時的情境」等為輔助判斷。 鑑於此類爭議將演變為體制性問題，本文提出二項建議方案。第一，採行ITA委員會通知處理機制尋求通案解決，討論過程納入貨品貿易規範在其他領域敘及之「同類產品」的認定要素，基於創新產品變動並參照當前科技發展等市場實務進行考量，合理擴張ITA產品範圍。第二，爭取在當前杜哈回合談判通過相關部門別自由化方案擴大ITA產品範圍，建構零或低關稅的資訊科技產品貿易環境，其落實將有助於全球資訊科技產業之發展，亦可強化多邊貿易體系之整體運作。 / Information Technology Agreement (hereinafter ITA) has made significant contribution to the free trade in IT products since its conclusion at the end of 1996. It has been recognized as a successful model of sectorial trade liberalization in the WTO multilateral trading system. However, with the rapid advent of new technology, challenges arising from the determination of tariff treatment on newly innovated IT products become outstanding. Indeed, whether those innovated products are subject to the duty-free treatment of ITA merits intensive considerations. As demonstrated in the first dispute specifically on the prodcut coverage of ITA, where Taiwan, United States and Japan filed against the European Communities in 2008 for three IT products, i.e. set-top box, multi-functional office machine and LCD monitor, how the disptue settlement institutions respond to the applicability of the ITA in the context of techonogical develpment would be critical to the effectiveness of future ITA. In this study, the author argues that relevant factors to be taken into account by the panel adjudicating the ITA dispute include the tariff classification principle embodied in the Harmonized System Convention of the WCO, as well as the “common intention” of all or a great majority of ITA participants pursuant to Article 31 and 32 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties (VCLT). Specifically, an examination of the EC’s commitments under schedules of tariff concession by virtue of text (ordinary meaning), object and purpose, context, subsequent practice and relevant rules of international law as stipulated in Article 31 of the VCLT are of importance. Furthermore, looking at elements as to preparatory work and circumstances of the conclusion of the EC’s schedule in accordance with Article 32 of the VCLT is also relevant. On systemic issues, the author proposes two solutions. First, the inclusion of a new notification mechanism into the ITA Committee could be feasilbe. By adopting the concept of “like products” applicable to other fields of trade in goods, the ITA’s product coverage can be reasonably expanded on the basis of the modification of innovated products and advent of modern technology in the market. Second, achieving the consensus on sectorial liberalization of expanded IT products under on-going Doha Round would contribute to establish zero (or low) tariff environment for IT products, which would benefit not only to the global IT industry but also to the multilateral trading system as a whole.

本研究目的欲探討實施費率自由化第一及第二階段後之情形，即在2006年第二階段實施後，台灣產物保險公司及各險種個別之資金成本，以檢視兩階段自由化實施後是否顯著影響國內產險業。而資金成本為公司每段期間內應支付資金提供者之期望報酬，故以此可做為日後公司經營之參考指標。研究期間為2002年至2008年，分別由一因子模型及多因子模型解釋台灣產物保險業之資金成本，及系統風險(β)的變化是否會影響其資金成本之變動。利用資本資產定價模型(Capital Asset Pricing Model, CAPM)及Fama-French三因子模型(Fama-French Three-Factor Model, FF3F)求得公司資金成本，再透過完備資訊方法(The Full-information Industry Beta Method, FIB)了解不同險種間之系統風險及資金成本。實證結果顯示： 1. 無論在整體產險公司或是不同險種間，由FF3F模型所估計之資金成本均高於由CAPM模型所估計之資金成本。說明CAPM模型無法反映公司規模及財務危機因子(淨值市價比因子)之溢酬，而造成資金成本之低估。 2. 經CAPM模型及FF3F模型之估計，顯示台灣產險業之資金成本均低於國外產險業之資金成本，如美國。說明台灣產險業於資本市場之融資成本較低，造成其資本效率偏低，投資人變相縱容產險公司從事高風險性資產之投資。 本研究由台灣實證資料，顯示現行產險業資金取得成本低，導致其資本效率偏低，且投資人無法由市場資訊檢視其保險本業是否根據成本之考量來定價，故主管機關應於費用完全自由化後，加強產險業經營之監理，導正產險市場經營模式，避免因核保循環(underwriting cycle)而影響公司財務穩健。 關鍵詞：費率自由化、資金成本、資本資產定價模型、Fama-French三因子模型、完備資訊方法。

本論文旨在探討歐洲聯盟與非加太國家集團間的關係。非加太國家大部份為歐洲國家的前殖民地，其範圍包括非洲、加勒比海以及太平洋國家。這些國家在獨立後，繼續與歐洲聯盟保持緊密的合作關係，歐洲聯盟也透過經濟援助與貿易優惠的實施，來維持這樣的特殊關係。本文試從歷史的角度及國際政治經濟學觀點，以及雙方簽訂之條約分析雙方關係的性質，並且就歐洲聯盟貿易優惠與經濟援助的效果予以評估，發現歐洲聯盟與非加太國家的關係，是奠基於不平等的關係之上。雙方雖然以簽訂國際條約的方式來發展合作，但其中之運作仍顯現歐洲聯盟站於一個優勢及主導的地位。非加太國家並且是歐洲聯盟歐洲利益的外環，保障歐洲聯盟的原料進口來源、成為歐洲聯盟的外銷市場，同時也是歐洲聯盟取得國際經濟重大議題優勢的重要協助伙伴。由於世界貿易自由化的發展，使歐洲聯盟給予非加太國家的貿易優惠在新世紀已不合時宜，而歐洲聯盟對於東歐國家的關切，又有分散歐洲聯盟對非加太國家援助之虞。在冷戰結束後，歐洲聯盟對於非加太國家的要求也有政治化的傾向，人權、民主成為非加太國家取得歐洲聯盟援助的必要條件。本論文的結論是，非加太國家於歐洲聯盟所扮演的角色已不若從前重要，但歐洲聯盟應本於國際責任，繼續給予非加太國家經濟援助，並在世界經濟體系許可的範圍內儘量給予非加太國家貿易優惠，以做為南北合作的典範，並協助非加太國家經濟發展以消除貧窮。

自一九八九年起，民主化浪潮陸續於世界各地發生，且愈演愈烈，但中共卻無視這股時代巨流，執意走出「有中國特色的社會主義」，將對之民主轉變的期望視為是「和平演變」的陰謀，並強調中共國情迥異，展開前所未見的大規模反「和平演變」運動，極力避免步上前蘇聯、東歐國家被演變的後塵。 　　本文欲探討的主題即，什麼因素使中共能免民主潮流衝擊於一時？中共如何詮釋「和平演變」戰略的內涵？中共面對「和平演變」時，所採取的反制策略為何？中共因應「和平演變」的措施能否在目前全球生態丕變的環境下持續奏效？ 　　本論文共分為六章，各章內容概要如下： 　　第一章緒論，說明本文之研究動機及目的、研究方法及架構、研究範圍及限制。 　　第二章則於檢視中共反「和平演變」之內涵前，先探討中共對「和平演變」的看法，包括「和平演變」的產生背景、定義及施行目標、發展過程及施行手段。 　　第三、四、五三章分別論述中共三個反變時期，分別為毛澤東時期、鄧小平前後時期等，並以反變的背景、措施及成效等三個要素作為此三章的論述架構。 　　第三章說明中共反變運動最初形成的內外背景，反變的種種措施，以及毛澤東錯估當時各種情勢與反變結合後所造成的不良後果。 　　第四章則突出鄧小平掌權後，中共反變大環境有所變動，使得此時的反變必須在改革開放之下進行。 　　第五章敘述中共鎮壓民運的戲劇性發展，使反變與「和平演變」之互動進入另一個新的階段，並闡述中共反變運動時馳時張之緣故。 　　第六章首先對毛澤東與鄧小平的反變內容及成效作一初步的比較，次則指出中共反變目前所處的兩難境地，最後則展望許家屯及海內外學人所提出的「和平演進」論及「新權威主義」設計，在可見未來是否能為中共當局採納，而採用後的結果又為何？本文並以此章作為整篇論文之結論。

九十四年我國財產保險業之簽單總保費收入為新台幣1,185.02億元，其中汽車保險之簽單保險費收入為新台幣588.62億元，占我國財產保險業簽單總保費收入的49.67%，故汽車保險之簽單保險費收入於九十四年居財產保險市場各險種之冠。同時汽車保險業務量占全體產險業務量的比重，一直維持在45%-50%之間，由於汽車險業務量之消長連帶影響各產物保險公司的現金流量及公司在市場的排名，故汽車保險業務的經營深受各產險公司老闆的重視。 我國汽車保險業務的來源可分直接通路及間接通路兩種，間接通路來源的業務量占全部汽車險業務量的40%，其中汽車經銷商保險代理人(簡稱車商保代)及經紀人的業務來源就占有30%。 台灣汽車險市場各保險公司的市場占有率，經過產險同業大家多年的努力經營，已大致固定。由於車商保代及經紀人的業務大都屬新車業務，故其業務量占汽車險市場新車業務量的比重甚大，因此遂為每家保險公司業務經營極力爭取的對象。再者必須注意的是汽車險商品因受到過往規章費率的影響，同質性很高，在無法明顯區隔市場的情形下，保險公司如欲增加業務量，最迅速有效的方式就是提高佣金及配合車商保代的要求，搭配一定比率的回廠維修率。此種「蠟燭兩頭燒」的業務經營，在社會經濟景氣時，保險公司尚可依靠投資收益來挹注增加的成本，但景氣不好時，保險公司的負擔將會超過其所能承受的部份，導致經營產生虧損或發生危機。此由寶來證券集團在中央產物的經營汽車險業務，因經營結果與其預期不一致時，最後轉手美商AIG集團，即是最佳寫照。 本篇論文主要係在探討競爭市場下汽車險業務經營管理策略，並以寶來證券集團在中央產物經營汽車險業務的結果為個案研究。首先介紹台灣汽車險市場的現況，接著並就費率自由化的實施，探討其對台灣汽車險市場的影響，同時也針對汽車險市場經營的瓶頸加以瞭解及提出解決之道，筆者也藉此提供個人的些微建議，希望能對政府擬訂監理政策及產險同業透過汽車險業務經營策略的再思考，藉由創新商品的開發及行銷通路的多元化等多方的努力，以對開創台灣汽車險業務經營的藍海策略有所助益，是本篇論文提出的最主要目的。 / In 2005, the written premium of automobile insurance was NT$ 58.87 billion, occupied 49.67% and the majority part of the written premium of non-life insurance in Taiwan（the written premium of non-life insurance was NT$ 118.5 billion in 2005）. In the meantime, the business portfolio of automobile insurance to non-life insurance remain at 45%-50% steadily. Because the growth and decrease of business portfolio of automobile insurance will significantly influent the ranking and the cash flow of non-life insurance companies, the owners of non-life insurance companies pay highly attention on the operation of automobile insurance. In Taiwan, the source of automobile insurance can be divided into two parts: direct market approach and indirect market approach. Indirect market approach contributed 40% business income, and the automobile insurance agents contributed 30% premium income. The market share of non-life insurance business is approximately fixed. Due to the business scope of automobile insurance agents and brokers are selling the new cars, the non-life insurance companies give ultimate efforts to attract them. Moreover, we must pay attention on the fact that the automobile insurance commodities is homogeneous, the reason is affected by the tariff of regulator, therefore, under the premise that the market can’t be obviously divided, if the insurance companies still intend to raise its’business portfolio, the most rapid and efficient way is to lift up commission to match the commission requirement of automobile insurance agents, and to collocate with certain ratio of damaged car requiring and/or regular maintence. This kind of operation mode makes insurance company can cover the cost by its investing profit while economic boom, but will overload while economic depression, then causing operating crisis. The most conspicuous case is that the Polaris Securities Group sold Central Insurance Company（CIC）to AIG Group while Polaris Securities Group found the operating results of automobile insurance business in CIC was inconsistent with its anticipation. This thesis mainly discusses the operating and management strategy of automobile insurance in a competitive market, and give an example by Polaris Securities Group’s running automobile insurance business in CIC for case study. The thesis first introduces the current condition of Taiwan automobile insurance market, then probe into the influence of rate liberalization to the said market. Simultaneously, to understand the predicament of automobile insurance market and bring up the possible solution. The author provides some suggestions for government agency to draw up supervisory policy and for non-life insurance companies to set up operating strategy. By the way of innovating insurance commodities and diversifying marketing routes, the author hopes that it will helpful to jointly inaugurate the“Blue Ocean Strategy”of the operation of Taiwan automobile insurance. It’s the main goal of this thesis.

本研究的目的在於分析國家認同(身分)，對於中國和臺灣之間所謂「國與國」關係的影響。兩岸關係的和暖始於１９７０及１９８０年代末期開始的「自由化」與「民主化」過程，這提供了雙方交流的機會，特別是在１９８７年中華民國政府開放經貿和民間交流，如一般民眾赴大陸探親。更重要的是，當臺灣的一黨專政消逝後，臺灣人民以民主改革重塑了政治環境，而這種民主改革也使臺灣政治產生了新的變化。 本研究認為，就「自由化」與「民主化」的過程而言，不僅是甚於政權的移轉，而且也包括某些政治之外的因素改變了意識形態，最明顯的因素即是經濟。自從１９７９年兩岸的軍事衝突結束後，雖然雙方並未建立有效且特久的和平機制，但在此時期，兩岸都經歷了一些社會自由化及著重經濟發展的政策變化。本文將透過三個焦點問題以理解「自由化」、「民主化」與兩岸之間的關係： i.兩岸於１９７０年代後期及１９８０年代，在個別強人領導之下，國家認同（身分）的影響為何？ ii.這些發展在兩個中國實體的內部如何影響兩岸關係？ iii.未來兩岸如何調整政策以促進和暖的局勢？ 本文將採用溫特的社會建構論做為研究的理論框架，亦即建構主義中的三個Ｉ：認同（身分）、利益和制度。以社會建構論應用在兩岸關係上是有其意義的，同時也顧及了國際關係理論做為一種積累式學科的特殊性。根據社會建構論指出，國家認同（身分）是透過文化規則以塑造，如１９８０年代臺灣人民對於民主的認知，及１９７０年代之後中國自由化的過程，都是其政治文化的一部分。因此，國家認同（身分）在以利益為驅動的國際關係下，必須以「國與國」的關係所取代。本文將以１９７０－８０年代兩岸關係做為案列，解釋國家認同（身分）在「國與國」的關係中的使用。 / The purpose of this study is to examine the effect of the state identity in the state-to-state relations of mainland China and Taiwan. Following the ‘liberalization’ process on the mainland in the late 1970s and Taiwan’s ‘democratization’ of the 1980s, a thawing of relations between the PRC and the ROC was effected. The subsequent exchange between both sides of the Taiwan Strait has included such important changes as the ROC government’s lifting of travel and trade-related restrictions to mainland China in 1987. More importantly, when one-party rule was lifted the people of Taiwan were given the chance to shape the political landscape with the help of democratic reforms which gave a new substance to the political nature of the exchange. The focal point of this study will be the argument that the ‘democratization’ and the ‘liberalization’ processes on both sides is not only because of the regime change but also the ideological shift caused by a number of extra-political factors, most notably economic factors. Although no effective mechanism for long-lasting peace has been established in Cross-Strait Relations since the end of the militarized disputes between the PRC and the ROC in 1979, this period also witnessed a shift in policy towards social liberalization along with an increased emphasis on economic development on both sides of the Taiwan Strait. I will approach the relationship between ‘democratization’ or ‘liberalization’ and Cross-Strait Relations through three focal questions: i.How has it been the effect of state identity in the late 1970s and 1980s in China and in Taiwan under their respective leaderships? ii.How did these developments within the two Chinese entities affect relations across the Taiwan Strait? iii.How will both sides modify their policies in the future to create circumstances more conducive to reconciliation with the other side? I intend to use Wendt's Social Constructivist theory as the theoretical framework of the research on the basis of “3 I’s of Social Constructivism”, namely ‘Identity, Interest and Institution’. The application of Social Constructivism as an International Relations theory to Cross-Strait Relations aims to be relevant and persuasive considering the ad hoc –event driven– characteristic of International Relations as a discipline being accumulative. In Social Constructivism, state identities shape through the cultural norms, such as the Taiwanese perception of democracy as part of its own political culture in the early 1980s and the liberalization process of China from the late 1970s onwards. The state identity, therefore, makes room for the state-to-state relations under the International Relations driven by the national interest. The effect of the state identity in the state-to-state relations in the case study of Cross-Strait Relations, in the late 1970s and in the late 1980s respectively, will be comprehensively subjected to examination in my research.

本論文的研究含括了墨西哥金融危機、亞洲金融危機與俄羅斯金融危機，主要是希望能歸納出90年代新興市場國家發生金融危機的普遍性原因。首先本論文先探討分析文獻上三大類型的金融危機理論，含括金融危機可預測與不可預測的原因。本論文試圖將可預測的經濟基本面歸為內部因素，不可預測的國際資金變動歸為外部因素。當一新興市場國家正在從事經濟結構改革或經濟轉型，而資本市場架構與金融機構監督機制與規範都尚未健全時，如果該國將金融市場自由化並允許大筆外資流入國內金融體系，則短期、投機性國際資金將會扭曲金融結構，造成經濟基本面的惡化。當不可預測的國際資金環境轉變時，一方面受到資金逆流衝擊著脆弱的金融部門，另一方面已經不健全的經濟基本面將嚴重惡化。此時政府採取的提高利率政策與賣出外匯捍衛本國釘住匯率制，卻會同時嚴重傷及本國銀行體系，促使金融機構面臨倒閉、陷入流動性不足的危機，結果投資者的信心仍然潰散而國內則造成金融體系的崩潰，終而引發全面性的金融危機。在建立了初步的研究假設後，我們以墨西哥金融危機與亞洲金融危機作為驗證。我們的研究案例中將包括危機發生的國家與當時未發生危機的國家作為對照組。在墨西哥危機，我們以智利作為對照組。在亞洲五國危機（印尼、韓國、馬來西亞、菲律賓與泰國），我們以中國大陸、新加坡、台灣作為對照組。在確立了我們的理論模型後，我們以個案研究的方式深入瞭解俄羅斯特殊的轉型經濟體質。俄羅斯激烈的經濟結構改革措施，使國家從金融封閉整合入世界資本市場。俄羅斯面臨著外資大量流入金融市場，然而總體經濟面卻在財政與貨幣政策相互矛盾的狀況下，實質經濟依舊無法發展起來，而金融體質嚴重惡化的情況。俄羅斯的案例也同樣證明本論文的論點，一個新興市場國家資本帳的開放必須有其先決條件且循序漸進的開放。一國能否將國際資金導入對於實質產業有所助益的直接投資，是新興市場國家所面臨的重要課題。不然，資本自由化先決條件的不足而快速地實施自由化，將只是加速金融危機的到來。 / This research has included the financial crises of Mexico, Asia and Russia, mainly expecting to conclude the general causes for the financial crises of emerging market economies in the 1990s. First, the paper reviews the three types of theoretical literature on financial crises, including predictable and unpredictable causes. This thesis tries to refer to the predictable economic fundamental part as internal factors, and the unpredictable, international capital mobility as external factors. When an emerging market country is engaged in economic structural reform or economic transition, and when the capital-market architecture and the system of financial-sector supervision and regulation are not sound, if the country liberalize financial market and allow large-scale foreign capital to inflow into domestic financial system, then short-term, speculative international capital will deteriorate financial structure and the economic fundamentals will become worse. When the environment of unpredictable international capital changes, on the one hand, the withdrawal of foreign capital impacts the vulnerable financial sector, and on the other hand, the unhealthy economic fundamentals will become seriously worse. At the same time, the government takes measures to raise interest rates and to sell foreign currency to defend the pegged exchange rate, which will seriously weaken the banking system, causing the bankrupt and the crisis of illiquidity. As a result, the confidence of investors will crash down and the native financial institutions will collapse, and this gives rise to the financial crisis in large scale. After the presumption of this research, we take Mexican and Asian financial crises for example. We try to give corresponding cases for contrast. In Mexican crisis, we take Chile as a contradistinctive group. In five Asian country crises (Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philip, and Thailand), we take China, Singapore, and Taiwan as a contradistinctive group. After proving our model, we try to take Russia as a case study because of the special nature of economic transformation of Russia. The policy of drastic structural economic reform has made Russia step from the financial isolation to the integration into World’s capital market. Russia faces the large-scale foreign capital inflow in the financial market, while the real economy can not recover and domestic financial institutions become structurally weak because of the contradiction of the fiscal and monetary policy. The case of Russia also shows us the argument of this thesis--capital-account liberalization of an emerging market must depend on its prerequisites and steadiness of liberalization. When a nation can make proper use of the capital, conducting foreign investment to real economy is the important challenge of an emerging market. Otherwise, the capital-account liberalization will speed up the coming of financial crisis.