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京都大学 / 0048 / 新制・課程博士 / 博士(経済学) / 甲第22226号 / 経博第614号 / 新制||経||293(附属図書館) / 京都大学大学院経済学研究科経済学専攻 / (主査)教授 田中 彰, 教授 黒澤 隆文, 教授 塩地 洋 / 学位規則第4条第1項該当 / Doctor of Economics / Kyoto University / DGAM

本篇論文旨在探討中共與伊朗在各層面關係的演變，及兩國關係發展的限制。本論文的研究途徑係採取系統理論，透過國際環境、國內環境與決策者因素的探討，以瞭解中伊各項關係受到哪些因素的影響。 基本上，中伊兩國以「經貿互利、權力與安全」為主軸，分別進行各種層面關係的互動。首先，在中伊關係特點上，中伊政治外交關係的特點包括推動「反對霸權主義」、「反對單極國際體系」及追求「互利合作」。軍事關係的特點在於獲取政治與商業利益，降低伊朗研發武器的成本。能源關係的特點在於平衡兩國的貿易關係、確保能源安全。經貿與科技關係的特點在於創造對中伊兩國互利的經貿利益，促進伊朗科技發展。 以政策目標來看，中共對伊朗的政策目標在於推動與伊朗的國際議題合作；兩伊戰爭期間維持平衡的外交策略；促成兩伊戰爭的和平解決；鞏固中共對伊朗的政治影響力；推動中伊兩國在中東地區的議題合作；基於反對單極國際體系的理念，推動國際議題合作；推動與伊朗的國際議題合作；防範中亞地區分裂主義及基本教義主義擴張；增加中伊兩國在中東地區的議題合作；增加中共對伊朗核問題的影響力。在軍事關係上，中共對伊朗的政策目標包括提供伊朗所需武器，抵禦國外勢力的攻擊；避免伊朗遭受區域強權或國際大國的安全威脅；維護伊朗和平使用核能的權利。在能源關係上，中共對伊朗的政策目標包括平衡中伊兩國的貿易逆差；探詢與伊朗進行能源合作的機會；增加從伊朗進口的能源數量；爭取在伊朗的能源探勘計畫；增加中伊雙方能源合作的領域；增加從伊朗進口原油的數量；爭取在伊朗的能源探勘機會；增加中伊雙方能源合作的領域。在經貿與科技關係上，中共對伊朗的目標包括加強中伊雙邊貿易；增加與伊朗經濟合作的項目；促進中伊兩國的科技合作。 本文以政治外交、軍事、能源、經貿與科技作為實務分析的面向，並以三個時期為區分，分別是鄧小平時期(1979年至1988年)、江澤民時期(1989年至2002年)、胡錦濤時期(2003年至2008年)。在鄧小平主政期間，中伊關係以國家安全及權力平衡為主軸。中伊關係最重要的面向就是軍事關係。江澤民主政期間，中伊關係則以經貿互利及權力平衡為主軸。此時期經貿與科技關係、能源關係及政治外交關係則是雙方發展的重點層面。在胡錦濤主政期間，中共與伊朗關係改以「互利合作」作為主軸。此時期中伊的能源關係、經貿與科技互動成為雙方關係的重點，政治外交關係及軍事關係則退居其後。 綜觀中共與伊朗伊斯蘭政府關係的基礎，建立在中伊雙方國家利益考量。對中共而言，伊朗戰略地理位置重要，與中共同屬第三世界開發中國家，兩國歷史情誼淵源已久，都是促成因素之一。其次，在中東地區以親美政府為主的國家中，伊朗伊斯蘭政府反其道而行，抱持反美且不親蘇的立場，此外，伊朗能源蘊藏豐富，因此伊朗成為中共在中東地區的重要據點。 對伊朗政府而言，中共在以阿議題上，屬於少數較為同情巴勒斯坦立場的國際大國，同時中共反對現有的以美國為主導的國際體系、以第三世界開發中國家與伊朗立場相近。此外，中共在國際政治或區域議題上具有舉足輕重的地位，在國際議題上更具有實質影響力。 從中伊關係的發展，可以發現幾個大趨勢：第一、中伊關係的發展中，主導權越來越操之在中共的手中；第二、中共在盱衡整體國家利益下，對於伊朗的強硬態度，已經無法給予強力支持；第三、中共與伊朗關係發展中，能源、經貿等實質利益，已經逐漸取代政治與戰略利益的重要性。第四、中共有意透過國際組織的力量，給予伊朗適當的壓力；第五、中伊雙方互動在遇到歧見時，向來秉持「求同存異」、「各取所需」的精神，以不傷害彼此既有關係的前提下，以獲取各自最大的利益。 展望未來中、伊兩國關係發展的前景，中伊兩國仍會維持各關係層面的議題式合作關係。中伊兩國政治外交關係的未來的動向，將取決於伊朗內部政治的演變與伊朗及美國關係的發展，如果伊朗國內的激進派持續在外交政策上採取不退讓的立場，美國對伊朗的政策將趨於強勢，如此，中共與伊朗關係的發展很難繼續突破。但是，面對伊朗豐富的能源儲量與產量，加上維護能源安全已經是中共的外交要項，美國倘若對伊朗採取強制作為，中共絕不可能默許。至於伊朗方面，它必須仰賴具有傳統友誼基礎，又是聯合國常任安理國的中共在各項議題上為其執言。因此，即使中共在某些議題的立場上向美國靠攏，但是伊朗也不敢斷然與中共反目成仇。其次，對伊朗而言，無論在經貿科技上或者能源上，中共是個較能信賴的國家，伊朗不願讓這些實質關係倒退。短期內中共與伊朗關係仍將以經貿、能源為主，政治外交關係將退居其次。此外，中共也將持續維持伊朗成為中東地區制衡美國勢力過度擴張的據點。 / The purpose of this dissertation is to explore the development of China and Iran relations and to understand the factors contributing to the adjustment of bilateral relations. The writer intends to introduce system theory as analytical approach. The finding of this study is that the bilateral relationship between China and Iran is established on the mutually economic benefits, power and security. On the diplomatic dimension, China and Iran relationship is characterized by anti-hegemony, anti-unipolar international system, mutually benefits and cooperation. On the military dimension China and Iran relationship is characterized by enhancing Iran’s sovereignty and national security. China and Iran relationship is characterized by balancing mutual trade imbalance and ensuring energy security. On the economic technological dimension, China and Iran relationship is characterized by creating mutual interests for both nations and advancing Iran’s technological development. In terms of policy objectives, China’s objectives are many folds. On diplomatic dimension China’s objective toward Iran comprises promoting issue cooperation with Iran, supporting Iran’s independent foreign policy, fending off foreign intervention in Iran’s domestic affairs, ensuring Iran’s status as a regional power. On military dimension China’s objective toward Iran comprises helping establish Iran’s national defense power, helping stave off potential security threats directed toward Iran. On energy dimension China’s objective toward Iran comprises balancing mutual trade imbalance. On economic dimension China’s objective toward Iran comprises enhancing mutual trade and tapping into Iran’s market. In terms of policy instrument, China and Iran try to achieve policy objective via the use of a variety of policy instruments, ranging from diplomatic bargaining, high ranking officers visits, arms sales, military cooperation, military officers visits, negotiation on Iran nuclear issue, energy trade, nuclear technological cooperation, energy joint development, economic and trade bargaining, engineering contract, assistance in technology and funding. This analysis is conducted from several different dimensions of China and Iran relations, that is, diplomatic, military, energy, economic and trade dimensions. For the analytical needs, this analysis is mainly divided into three periods, from 1979 to 1988, 1989 to 2002 and 2003 to 2008. From 1979 to 1988 the central pillar of China Iran relations is on military dimension featured by national security and balance of power. From 1989 to 2002 the central pillar of China Iran relations is on economic-trade, energy and diplomatic dimensions featured by mutually economic benefits and balance of power. From 2003 to 2008 the central pillar of China Iran relations is on economic-trade, energy and diplomatic dimensions featured by mutually benefits and oooperation. From the track of China and Iran relations, several trends can be inductively identified. First the leverage is more favorable to China. Secondly China has reduced its all-out support for Iran’s militant foreign policy. Thirdly the substantive interests such as energy and economic ones have surpassed economic and strategic ones in terms of importance. Fourthly China try to press Iran to readjust the latter’s policy through the force of international organizations. Fifthly China and Iran will adopt the principle of ‘put aside the difference and pursue the consensus’ and ‘to serve one’s own need’ if there is conflicting opinion between China and Iran. From the process of China and Iran relations, some major limitations can also be identified. First the international environment factor, particularly U.S. factor, is a critical source of limitation. China has to strike a balance in its relationship between Iran and U.S. Secondly China’s decision maker’s policy adjustment is also a source of limitation. In the process of its peacefully rising as a responsible great power, China chooses to abide by international regimes and keep cautious in dealing with Iran’s contentious issues. Thirdly China’s long standing principle of non-involvement in highly disputed issues also hamper China-Iran relationship. Fourthly the dominance of Iran’s conservative faction has indirectly impeded China-Iran relation. The future of China and Iran diplomatic relations will depend on the development of Iran’s domestic politics and U.S.-Iran relations. China will not allow U.S. to take military actions against and Iran will not give up China as a reliable great power. Over the short term, China and Iran relations will prosper on substantive issues, while political issues will lose its importance.

本文以符合時代潮流之免稅額制度為主，重新探討改革單一稅率所得稅制至兩課稅級距稅制後，整體社會福利與所得分配情形之變化，並將所得結果與負所得稅制下之結論作一比較，最後，再將稅制改革下社會福利變動數額與稅制改革造成租稅管理成本增加之數額兩相比較，作為政府選擇稅制時之參考。 本文主要擴展Kemper(1992)建立的具免稅額單一稅率模型，建構本研究具免稅額的兩課稅級距理論模型，並針對各種租稅改革方案詳加分類，以釐清各方案對個人效用與勞動供給產生之影響；模擬分析方法係採用Yitzhaki(1982)提出之”Tax Programming Model”（租稅程式設計模型），假設社會有100人，工資率分配型態以平均數=-1；變異數=0.39的Lognormal Distribution近似之，再配合不同社會風險趨避係數、人民勞動替代彈性及政府所需稅收等模型參數設定，求出精密度為百分之一的最適解。 藉由模擬分析結果，本研究得到以下結論： 一、 單一稅率改制為兩課稅級距稅制確有提升整體社會福利與改善所得分配公平的效果，而當社會重視效用分配公平的程度愈強烈，兩課稅級距稅制較單一稅率為優的特性愈明顯。 二、 單一稅率改制為兩課稅級距稅制之改革方案共有六種，每種方案對個人效用及勞動供給造成之影響各不相同，而最適改革方案之選擇，決定於人民勞動替代彈性的大小、社會重視效用分配公平的程度與政府所需稅收的多寡。不過，當社會較重視效用分配公平、人民勞動替代彈性愈小與政府所需稅收增加時，型一改革方案成為最適改革方案的可能性愈大。 三、 本研究提及六種租稅改革方案中以型一方案為最佳，這是因為勞動替代彈性愈小，邊際稅率上升帶來的效率損失也愈小，使得稅制雖具有邊際稅率遞增之特性，其效率損失亦不如邊際稅率遞增改善所得重分配的優點來得大；再者，由第三章比較靜態的分析可知免稅額下降有刺激勞動供給增加的效果，可以抵消一部份稅率上升帶來的效率損失，故型一改革方案（降低免稅額、第一級距邊際稅率及增加第二級距邊際稅率）在同時考量效率與公平之後，仍能被選為最佳稅制改革方案。 四、 兩課稅級距稅制之最適稅率結構，不限於邊際稅率遞增或遞減之型態，但仍必須具有平均稅率累進之特性。 五、 人民勞動替代彈性改變對最適兩課稅級距稅制之影響，是當勞動彈性愈大時，無論第一或第二級距邊際稅率均應下降，且免稅額亦減少；若由人民稅負變化而言，此時決定之稅制使中、低所得者之稅負較重，高所得者的稅負減輕。 六、 社會重視效用分配公平程度改變對最適兩課稅級距稅制之影響，是當社會重視效用分配公平的程度愈強時，免稅額下降、第一級邊際稅率愈輕而第二級邊際稅率會愈重，且兩邊際稅率間之差距隨社會重視效用分配公平程度提高而加大；若由人民稅負變化而言，此時決定之稅制使中、低所得者稅負減輕，高所得者稅負加重。 七、 政府所需稅收改變對最適兩課稅級距稅制之影響，是當所需稅收愈多時，免稅額就愈低，至於邊際稅率結構之變化，則無明顯特徵；若由人民稅負變化而言，此時決定之稅制會使全體人民稅負均加重。

科学研究費補助金 研究種目:基盤研究(C)(A) 課題番号:09610263 研究代表者:大塚 豊 研究期間:1997-1998年度

中國共產黨建政8年後，就宣布完成全行業社會主義改造（1949-1956），實現了公有制與計畫經濟體制，取消了中國既有的混合經濟體制與私有財產制度。然而，自70年代末期開始，一連串試圖搞活經濟的措施開啟了中國經濟制度變化的序幕，30年來，中國已經由公有制計畫經濟體制，轉變到今日混合所有制市場經濟形態。 那些力量驅動了這場變化？那些變數與其交互作用影響，變化了經濟改革的方向？通過經濟制度變化的過程，那些成果帶來經濟制度走上不歸路的效用呢？這是筆者試圖解釋的課題。 事實上，中國經濟制度的變化，是一連串政權行動者「始料未及」的變化的結果，這場制度變遷─中國由公有制計畫經濟體制重新回到混合所有制市場經濟體制，一開始並未有指引變革行動的藍圖，變革的方向亦是在變化的過程上才漸次浮現的，它受到制度的限制，也受到偶發事件的影響，當然也就不意味是整體領導層的共識結果，它是在特定歷史結構與制度交錯相互影響下的產物。換句話說，是歷史（時間序列上的事件與變化）、制度與行動者組構了這場變遷。同時，這也是一場動態的變遷過程，變遷的路徑有來自制度遺產的影響，它也存在著路徑依賴的現象。 不過，路徑因行動者與制度安排的激勵而強化，從而實現變遷，但也在行動者基於觀念（意識形態）或利益下予以限制，從而轉折到不同的方向上。筆者認為，在中國獨特的政經體制下，路徑自我強化的現象不是內部自我激勵造成的結果，而是來自外部的因素；在路徑依賴的背後，制度結構與行動者的作用具有不容忽視的影響。 筆者認為，改變中國經濟制度最重要的取徑，就是「雙軌制」。「雙軌制」是一項行動者非意圖的創造，它始自陳雲倡議「摸著石頭過河」，獲得鄧小平的贊同，從而形成「試點」模式，並作為該模式的指導原則。 此外，觀念的引進與衝突是這場變化過程的重要部份，像是在推動「經濟特區試點政策過程中尤為明顯；當政權領導人受外部引入的觀念的影響，產生經濟特區政策，而領導人內部也因觀念的分歧，形成足以阻滯特區試點政策的衝突；他們之間的衝突（正統派vs改革派）貫穿整個變遷過程，這也正好說明了觀念因素在中國改變經濟制度過程上的重要影響。 / 8 years after the establishment of the People’s Republic of China, the Chinese Communist Party claimed that socialist reform has been successfully conducted. Public ownership and planned economy replaced mixed economy as well as private ownership. In the end of 1970s, however, a series of economic reform challenged public ownership with planned economy, which leads China enter into a mixed ownership economy. This thesis attempts to sort out the forces and consequences that drive economic reform. Through the transition of economic system, which leads China’s economy into a no return road. In fact, economic reform in China is an unexpected result by political regulators. Originally, it did not have a blueprint to lead the way. The direction from public ownership to mixed economy emerged throughout the reform, which is not a common consensus from the political leaders. Instead, it is dominated by history, political system as well as regulator in a dynamic way. This path dependency with institutional heritage character is the spot light of economic reform. The author claims the importance and direction of this reform is dominated by external factor. The most importance factor that change China’s economic is the launch of dual system. This system, with the slogan of “crossing the river by groping the stones along the way,” is proposed by CHEN Yun and approved by Deng Xiao-Ping. The introduction of concept is an important factor through the reform, which can be seemed from the process during the promotion of Special Economic Zones SEZs. When political regulators received outer concept and launched SEZs, internal diversity emerged that blocking the reform. Conflicts between orthodoxy and reformist can be seemed throughout reform period, influencing the forces and consequences of China’s economic system.

由於國內金融（包括銀行、保險、證券商等）家數過度膨脹，形成惡性競爭，導致金融服務品質低落，而且獲利式微，面對金融市場自由化與國際化之趨勢，政府為改革金融體制，引進金融控股公司制度，使金融機構跨業經營機制更具規模，滿足顧客得一次購足金融商品，促使金融機構朝大型化發展，發揮金融綜效與規模經濟，以提升國際競爭力。 本文主題「論金融控股公司保險子公司之經營策略與內部稽核」，理論與實務並行探討，先論述控股公司之相關法律問題、金融控股公司之立法例。其次以「五力分析術」探討保險子公司經營環境之優劣勢及風險，提出創新之經營策略，並實例引證美國花旗集團異業聯盟之成功經營策略。為確保投資大眾及保戶之權益，同步探討公司治理制度及內部稽核制度之重要性。 本文「結論」：評述政府金融政策之缺失，成立金融控股公司推動金融改革，保險子公司應強化競爭力。「建議」：金融控股公司及各子公司均應加強風險管理，政府並應建置金融監理制度。 關鍵字：保險子公司、金融改革、控股公司、金融控股公司、跨業經營、一次購足商品、金融綜效、規模經濟、五力分析術、異業聯盟、公司治理、內部稽核、風險管理、金融監理 / Due to the over-supply and severe competition among financial institutions (namely banks, insurance companies and security firms), the quality of finance service deteriorates and the profit margin of financial industries decreases. To cope with the global trend of liberalization and internationalization of financial services, the Government has undertaken the reform in the aspect of financial service system and enacted the “Financial Holding Company Act”. Under new current mechanism, a financial conglomerate can sell its products by means of cross selling. Not only it may benefit consumers with a “one-stop shopping”, but also may create a synergy in economies of scale to enhance financial institutions in global competition. The main theme of this thesis focuses on the managerial strategy and internal auditing in an insurance subsidiary under a financial holding company. It addresses in the first place the legal issues related to a holding company and a financial holding company. Then the author adopts five factors approach to analyze the business environment of an insurance subsidiary under a financial holding company. As a successful case for its' strategic alliance,the CitiGroup experience in the United States is also examined. In addition, to protect the interest of investors and policyholders, corporate governance and internal auditing issue is also explored. In the conclusion, it is observed that under the new era of financial conglomeration, an insurance subsidiary still needs to enhance its competition ability. It is suggested that the government should continue to reform the financial regulatory system and to require financial holding companies and their subsidiaries to implement a comprehensive risk management. Keywords: Insurance Subsidiary, Financial Reform, Holding Company, Financial Holding Company, Cross Selling, One-Stop Shopping, Financial Synergy, Economies of Scale, Analysis of Five Factors, Strategic Alliance, Corporate Governance,Internal Auditing, Risk Management, Financial Regulation.

由於過度粗糙立法、缺乏相關深入研究暨流於形式之契約解釋取向，臺灣保險契約法第二章第三節特約條款制度實沈苛已深而積重難返，亟待立法者、司法者及主管機關進行大幅度改造。本文研究聚焦於探討該制度－相當於英美保險契約法之明示擔保條款－起源、本質暨新近發展，並研擬相關修法提案俾供後續立法者與研究者參酌。基此，本文擬採用法律經濟分析、實證分析與比較法等研究方式加以進行。從英美法系各國之立法潮流可發現，契約基礎條款因違反合理期待原則而遭多數國家揚棄。此從英格蘭暨蘇格蘭法律委員會目前保險契約法修法暫時提案，以及澳洲1984年保險契約法第24條規定即可窺見一斑。再者，鑑於肯定擔保條款當初建制基礎已消失殆盡，包含英國、澳洲及紐西蘭皆採取以不實陳述制度取代肯定擔保條款之立法，俾以達成較為公平之規範結果。至於允諾擔保條款部分，增加損失與違反行為間因果關係要件實已蔚為潮流，包含英國、美國數州、澳洲及紐西蘭相關立法皆為適例。此外，相較於無效、得撤銷抑或自動向後免責，賦予保險人契約終止權誠屬較佳之法律效果，已獲各國之共識。職是之故，本文主張應修改特約條款有關肯定特約部分相關文字，使同法第64條據實說明制度可取代之，俾產生較有效率之核保資訊提供制度。另一方面，允諾擔保條款內容應限縮於與危險有關之重要性事項。此外，應考慮增加損失與違反行為間因果關係要件，並使保險人於無因果關係之情形得以主張就系爭損失免責。鑑於解除權易使法律關係趨於複雜，本文建議應以契約終止權取代現行契約解除權較佳。又在前述修法前，法院得透過契約解釋方式緩和現行法弊端，而行政院金融監督管理委員會亦得透過保險商品審查機制過濾不妥之約款加以因應。 / Express warranties of insurance law in Taiwan provoke a great number of dilemmas in both theory and practice due to oversimplified legislation, a paucity of related studies and formalism of contract construction. This study aims not only at exploring the origin, nature and development of the institution for the purpose of elucidating pros and cons of express warranties, but also at providing an amendment to express warranties of insurance law in Taiwan. The dissertation achieves the dual goals by way of comparative study and economic analysis of law. Obviously, abolition of “basis of the contract clause”－an obsolete and bitterly-criticized contract term－ has been an uncontroversial trend around the world on the grounds of reasonable expectations. English and Scottish Law Commissions’ tentative proposals, as well as Section 24 of Australian Insurance Contracts Act 1984, sets an excellent example. Also, with an eye to the collapse of affirmative warranties’ keystones, several countries, including the U.K., Australia, and New Zealand, substitute misrepresentation for affirmative warranties for the purpose of leveling the playing field. As for promissory warranties, requirement of causal link between losses and breach of promissory warranties has gained a dominant position in the U.K., the U.S., Australia, and New Zealand on the grounds that considerable unfairness to policyholders would arise in the absence of it. In addition, the insurers’ right to terminate contracts has been generally regarded as a more superior legal effect than III rendering contracts void or avoid, even the insurer automatically discharged from liability. Based upon these foreign legislation and other considerations, the dissertation proposes the third section “express warranties” of insurance law in Taiwan should be amended thoroughly. Affirmative warranties in the section should be substantially supersede by misrepresentation set forth in article 64, since the latter is capable of inducing the insured to provide necessary information for the insurer in a more efficient way than is the former. On the other hand, promissory warranties of insurance law in Taiwan should be reconstructed by adding the requirement of causal connection to the insurer’s right not liable for specific losses. Furthermore, this dissertation also advocates that legislators replace the insurer’s right to avoid with the right to terminate on the basis of evading complicated legal relationship. Besides, in advance of amending aforementioned articles, the dissertation suggests that courts in Taiwan mitigate harsh effects via contract construction, and regulators should filter inappropriate or nominal warranties from insurance policies by means of administrative screening mechanism.

當經濟體在發展時，會因為經濟體與經濟體之間資本分配的失衡，或是資本配置的重心不同而引發不同的經濟危機產生，使得經濟體的運作失去效率。而經濟危機發生的成因很多，本研究針對以戰爭、全球工業化以及資本家投資等為主要的討論方向，造成匯率、利率以及金融體系的問題，造成經濟體物價高漲，投資降低，產出下降，最後會使得經濟體陷入成長的停滯或是衰退。本研究以2008年越南的高通膨為研究的對象，探討此次越南的經濟危機，將會對正在成長的新興市場造成什麼樣的衝擊。並提供提出一個可供參考的準則，讓未來希望投資於成長型的新興市場，一個評估的模式及依據。

科学研究費補助金 研究種目:基盤研究(C) 課題番号:14530108 研究代表者:家森 信善 研究期間:2002-2005年度