部分工時工作在先進國家實施許久，且各國部分工時人口多佔一定比例並具有明顯的性別特性，即部分工時勞動型態女性化之現象，特別是女性勞工為了調和工作與家庭生活而選擇了部分工時工作。現階段我國尚未就部分時間工作制定專法，因此部分工時者相關法律仍需回歸現有傳統全時工作者之勞動法令。惟就法令面而言，國內部分工時者與全時工作者勞動條件全然相同，卻仍然產生邊緣化發展趨勢，即便雇主及勞工有縮短工時需求，但運用部分時間工作的比例仍然偏低，顯示現行規定不但無法充分落實保障部分工時工作者勞動權益，與促進利用目標也是背道而馳。對雇主來說缺乏進用誘因，對大多數未就業的婦女而言也無意願藉由部分工時工作來調和工作與家庭之間的衝突。爰上，本研究主要目的係探討我國部分時間工作勞工法制建構可行性，從中發現現行法規在適用部分工時勞動型態產生的窒礙難行之處，立法時兼顧部分工時之勞動條件及促進利用之可能。 本研究藉由相關文獻回顧與整理，瞭解部分時工作現況、定義、適用及所遭遇之問題；再透過與勞工團體、資方團體、政府機關、學者專家及勞工個案代表進行深度訪談，蒐集勞資政學各方代表對於部分工時法制建構之意見，以尋求發現我國部分工時法制建構之方向。經文獻及訪談結果發現，在面臨婚育或家庭照顧而選擇退出職場，再度返回職場二度就業之婦女並從事部分時間工作者，其最大特性是多數仍有家庭照顧責任，僅是責任減輕、非家庭中主要負擔家計者，基於補貼家用考量，而選擇部分時間工作，認為部分工時具有工時短及工時彈性，可以兼顧家庭照顧，對部分工時工作的滿意度高，故部分工時勞工保護之立法仍應兼顧促進利用規劃，以吸引潛在婦女勞動力投入職場。 本研究經由文獻探討及訪談結果歸納以下建議： 一、制定部分工時勞動專法，明文規範部分工時勞動權益。 二、避免部分工時全職(時)化發展，創造友善的部分工時工作機會。 三、明文規範部分工時均等待遇原則。 四、以部分時間工作提供全時工作以外之就業選項，避免已婚婦女因婚育而離開職場。 五、部分工時勞工之教育訓練，應同時兼顧技能再生安全。 / Part-time employment in advanced countries has been implemented for a long time, It has provided female could chose part-time work to reconcile work and family life therefore, it got very high female population accounts for a certain percentage in the part time work. It caused the trendies to feminize of the phenomenon with significant gender characteristics. However, Taiwan has not yet institutionalized in Part-Time Worker Protection Law, thus the legal status of part-time workers still needs to be governed by the traditional full-time workers' labour laws. Although the part-time worker and full-time work be treated with the same law and the same working condition in Taiwan but why employees and employers using this kinds of working pattern still low percentage in the whole labour population accounts and the part-time workers and forward to marginalized development. It shows that the existing regulation not only could not fully implement the protection of part of the labor rights of workers. consequently, the goal of the promote to use the part-time worker is also run counter to the partial hours workers of the labor rights and also short of incentives for employers to use the part-time worker. For most unemployed potential women, there is no intention to reconcile work and family conflicts by working hours. This study is reviewed and collected by relevant literature to understand the current situation, definition, application and problems encountered in the part-time work. According to depth interviews with labour groups, employers' groups, government agencies, academics and labour case representatives to collect the opinions of the representatives of the parties and seeking to find the direction of the construction of Part-Time Worker Protection Law of our legal system. From the literature and interviews found out, women abandon the job when they get marriage or give birth to their own breed and to devote for the family. Those women get employed once again to choose to be a part time worker the most of reasons is that women have family care responsibilities although they are not main economic supporter consequently they reduce the part of the cost of living and subsidize home when they chose part time work. Most of them admit the part-time work has working hour’s elasticity and short hours and flexibility. Because of those reasons, they are satisfied this type of work pattern of the part-time work. Part-Time Worker Protection Law of the labour protection legislation should still take into account the promotion of the use of planning and to attract potential women's labour force into the labour market. Based on the findings, this summarizes the following suggestions : 1) To establish the Part-Time Worker Protection Law in Taiwan, specific regulations the part-time worker rights and definition clarity. 2) It should create a friendly part-time employment environment and prevent part-time work become full-time work. 3) To establish of equal treatment between full-time and part-time. 4) Create another choice of employment for marriaged women, to avoid the most women quit their job as they got marriage and bore their breeds. 5) The part-time labors' education and training should also improve their skills reproduction security.

國族是什麼？國族主義又是什麼？ 面對許許多多歧異又紛雜的關於國族與國族主義的論述，本論文嘗試另闢蹊徑，從哲學層面來闡釋這一問題。本文區分國族之形成的主觀條件與客觀條件，認為國族不同於國家與民族，不能單純以客觀條件作為依據，而是必須以主觀條件作為依據。本文又進一步區分形式條件與實質條件，認為主觀條件中必須同時包括形式條件與實質條件，也就是說，一群人若要組成一個國族共同體，這些人必須是出於各自之自由意志，決定共同組成一個不同於其他之團體的共同體，而且要尋找並形成某種歸屬核心，當做共同體之根本質素，使之成為維繫共同體之長久存續的道德基礎。 本文以羅爾斯的政治自由主義與民族觀點作為論述根基，由此開展一種新的國族觀點，一種特殊的、只在自由主義式的民主政治體制中存在的政治共同體。並認為，人類理性必然要求人類朝這樣的政治共同體邁進，使每個人的自由都夠有最合理的、最和諧的發展，而不致釀成戰爭衝突。 / What is “nation”? And what is “nationalism”? There are many diverse and conflicting theories about nations and nationalism. We look into these theories and then abandon them because there are too many definitions. We believe that the nation is a special and unique political community and it accrues only in the liberal constitutional democracy of the modern period. There are two kinds of conditions for the construction of a nation: the subjective condition and the objective conditions. The former is an inner characteristic, while the later are external features. Unlike a state or a people, a nation must be founded the subjective condition as much as the objective conditions. In other words, the subjective condition, human beings’ free will, is the essential bedrock for the construction of a nation. In this perspective, we further distinguish the formal condition from the substantive condition. The formal condition has no content; its only function is pure decision-making. If a group of people is willing to associate together and form a community, it’s necessary for them not only to make a decision but also to decide what community they want to be. Furthermore, they have to search for and fashion their own defining core as the underlying element of the community as well as the moral foundation for the continuance of the community. Based on John Rawls’ political liberalism and his views about peoples, this paper evolves a new viewpoint of the nation as a unique political community that exists only in the liberal democracy. We also assume it is required by human reason that mankind should move forward to such a political community, enabling everyone to develop his or her liberty in the most reasonable and harmonious way without leading to wars and conflicts.

近來地理資訊系統(GIS)之資料庫受到不同領域的統計學家廣泛的研究，以期建立及分析可描述空間聚集效應及變異之模型，而描述空間相關存活資料之統計模式為公共衛生及流行病學上新興的研究議題。本文擬建立多維度半參數的貝氏階層模型，並結合空間及非空間隨機效應以描述存活資料中的空間變異。此模式將利用多變量條件自回歸(MCAR)模型以檢驗在不同地理區域中是否存有空間聚集效應。而基準風險函數之生成為分析貝氏半參數階層模型的重要步驟，本研究將利用混合Polya樹之方式生成基準風險函數。美國國家癌症研究院之「流行病監測及最終結果」(Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results, SEER)資料庫為目前美國最完整的癌症病人長期追蹤資料，包含癌症病人存活狀況、多重癌症史、居住地區及其他分析所需之個人資料。本文將自此資料庫擷取美國愛荷華州之癌症病人資料為例作實證分析，並以貝氏統計分析中常用之模型比較標準如條件預測指標(CPO)、平均對數擬邊際概似函數值(ALMPL)、離差訊息準則(DIC)分別測試其可靠度。 / The databases of Geographic Information System (GIS) have gained attention among different fields of statisticians to develop and analyze models which account for spatial clustering and variation. There is an emerging interest in modeling spatially correlated survival data in public health and epidemiologic studies. In this article, we develop Bayesian multivariate semiparametric hierarchical models to incorporate both spatially correlated and uncorrelated frailties to answer the question of spatial variation in the survival patterns, and we use multivariate conditionally autoregressive (MCAR) model to detect that whether there exists the spatial cluster across different areas. The baseline hazard function will be modeled semiparametrically using mixtures of finite Polya trees. The SEER (Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results) database from the National Cancer Institute (NCI) provides comprehensive cancer data about patient’s survival time, regional information, and others demographic information. We implement our Bayesian hierarchical spatial models on Iowa cancer data extracted from SEER database. We illustrate how to compute the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO), the average log-marginal pseudo-likelihood (ALMPL), and deviance information criterion (DIC), which are Bayesian criterions for model checking and comparison among competing models.

當造成失敗的原因不只一種時，若各對象同一時間最多只經歷一種失敗原因，則這些失敗原因稱為競爭風險。然而，有些個體不會失敗或者經過治療之後已痊癒，我們稱這部分的群體為治癒群。本文考慮同時處理競爭風險及治癒率的混合模式，即競爭風險的治癒率模式，亦將解釋變數結合到治癒率、競爭風險的條件失敗機率，或未治癒下競爭風險的條件存活函數中，並以建立在完整資料上之擴充的概似函數為貝氏分析的架構。對於右設限對象則以插補方式決定是否會治癒或會因何種風險而失敗，並推導各參數的完全條件後驗分配及其性質。由於邊際後驗分配的數學形式無法明確呈現，再加上需對右設限者判斷其狀態，所以採用屬於馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅法的Gibbs抽樣法及適應性拒絕抽樣法(adaptive rejection sampling) ，執行參數之模擬抽樣及設算右設限者之治癒或失敗狀態。實證部分，我們分析Klein and Moeschberger (1997)書中骨髓移植後的血癌病患的資料，並用不同模式之下的參數模擬值計算各對象之條件預測指標(CPO)，換算成各模式的對數擬邊際概似函數值(LPML)，比較不同模式的優劣。 / In case that there are more than one possible failure types, if each subject experiences at most one failure type at one time, then these failure types are called competing risks. Moreover, some subjects have been cured or are immune so they never fail, then they are called the cured ones. This dissertation discusses several mixture models containing competing risks and cure rate. Furthermore, covariates are associated with cure rate, conditional failure rate of each risk, or conditional survival function of each risk, and we propose the Bayesian procedure based on the augmented likelihood function of complete data. For right censored subjects, we make use of imputation to determine whether they were cured or failed by which risk and derive full conditional posterior distributions. Since all marginal posterior distributions don’t have closed forms and right censored subjects need to be identified their statuses, we take Gibbs sampling and adaptive rejection sampling of Markov chain Monte Carlo method to simulate parameter values. We illustrate how to conduct Bayesian analysis by using the bone marrow transplant data from the book written by Klein and Moeschberger (1997). To do model selection, we compute the conditional predictive ordinate(CPO) for every subject under each model, then the goodness is determined by the comparing the value of log of pseudo marginal likelihood (LMPL) of each model.

當母體中有部份對象因被治癒或免疫而不會失敗時，需考慮這群對象所佔的比率，即存活分率。本文主要在探討如何以貝氏方法對含存活分率之治癒率模式進行分析，並特別針對兩種含存活分率的迴歸模式，分別是Weibull迴歸模式以及對數邏輯斯迴歸模式，導出概似函數與各參數之完全條件後驗分配及其性質。由於聯合後驗分配相當複雜，各參數之邊際後驗分配之解析形式很難表達出。所以，我們採用了馬可夫鏈蒙地卡羅方法（MCMC）中的Gibbs抽樣法及Metropolis法，模擬產生參數值，以進行貝氏分析。實證部份，我們分析了黑色素皮膚癌的資料，這是由美國Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group所進行的第三階段臨床試驗研究。有關模式選取的部份，我們先分別求出各對象在每個模式之下的條件預測指標（CPO），再據以算出各模式的對數擬邊際概似函數值（LPML），以比較各模式之適合性。 / When we face the problem that part of subjects have been cured or are immune so they never fail, we need to consider the fraction of this group among the whole population, which is the so called survival fraction. This article discuss that how to analyze cure rate models containing survival fraction based on Bayesian method. Two cure rate models containing survival fraction are focused; one is based on the Weibull regression model and the other is based on the log-logistic regression model. Then, we derive likelihood functions and full conditional posterior distributions under these two models. Since joint posterior distributions are both complicated, and marginal posterior distributions don’t have closed form, we take Gibbs sampling and Metropolis sampling of Markov Monte Carlo chain method to simulate parameter values. We illustrate how to conduct Bayesian analysis by using the data from a melanoma clinical trial in the third stage conducted by Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group. To do model selection, we compute the conditional predictive ordinate (CPO) for every subject under each model, then the goodness is determined by the comparing the value of log of pseudomarginal likelihood (LPML) of each model.

近來，由於詐領人壽保險死亡保險金之情況甚為嚴重，使得政府及保險人不得不對人壽保險人免責事由之規範加以留意。而此亦為本文撰寫靈感來源。 故本文乃試從保險法及保險學之角度，對人壽保險人免責事由之意義及內容加以界定，進而於提出各國立法例後，探究目前我國人壽保險人之法定免責事由，並以人壽保險單示範條款為意定免責事由之中心，探究相關之法令規定。 對於人壽保險人免責事由之主要問題乃出自保險法第一百零九條及第一百二十一條，雖現行人壽保險單示範條款第十四條之規定亦源自於此二法條而來。然而，對於其中之爭議點，人壽保險單示範條款仍未加以解決。此外，本文亦兼論有關戰爭、內亂及其他類似的武裝變亂和核子反應造成之損害，保險人是否得以免責。 最後，對於前述之問題，本文建議除了從我國保險法第一百零九條、一百二十一條、第三十二條之內容加以修正之外，亦可從保險犯罪防制中心之成立，進行危險控制之工作。 / Defrauding death benefits of life insurance has become more and more serious recently, so the government and insurers must keep their eyes open about the liability exception of life insurers. This is also the inspiration source of this essay. This essay tries to describe the definition and contexts of the liability exception of life insurers from the insurance law and insurance theories points of view. After bringing the cases and laws in different countries forward, the writer will proceed to the next step: to investigate into the statutory liability exception of life insurers; and then, to center on Model Provisions of Life Insurance Policy, studying the related regulations about the exceptions or exclusions of life policy. The main issues of the liability exception of the life insurers arise from Sections 109 and 121 of the Insurance Law of R. O. C.. Although the Model Provisions of Life Insurance Policy S.14 also came from these rules, the main issues still remain unsolved. Moreover, this essay will also discuss about whether or not the insurers should be liable for the insurance events caused by the wars, civil strifes, other armed forces and nuclear reaction. Finally, this essay suggests amending the Insurance Law of R.O.C., S.109, 121, and 32 to solve the issues mentioned above as well as establishing the Crime Prevention Center of Insurance Institute to carry out the work of risk control.

由於社會變遷迅速，文化資產保存工作，無論在有形或無形資產方面均面臨了嚴苛的挑戰。許多為保存歷史建物、遺址、文物或技藝之民間組織或政府文化機構無不極力爭取以獲得必要的經費資源，以防止文化資產的快速流逝。近年來政府對文化資源的投入程度受到廣泛關注，在財政緊縮下，政府削減各項支出中有關文化設施之補助，或限縮地方政府的文化預算，引起各界對文化預算資源配置問題的熱烈討論，導致以經濟觀點衡量文化產出或文化設施之評價日顯重要。在俱歷史性之藝術或文化資源領域，由於其價值無法快速藉由市場價格機制訂出來，衡量文化政策之最適資源投資一直引起激烈爭議，在各部會資源競爭之下，為了獲得足夠的預算分配，政府各部門必須彰顯其對整體經濟效益之貢獻，因此近年來越來越多研究針對非市場財貨之公共投資進行經濟效益評估。調查民眾對文化公共財的願付價格，除可顯示民眾對文化公共財偏好強度以進行成本效益分析外，亦可作為該文化機構自行籌措財源擬訂定價策略之參考，並可提供政府當局財政配置及公共投資之依據，本篇研究將以非市場財貨評估中之條件評估法，以文建會所屬文化機構國立傳統藝術中心為例，求算民眾對該機構之願付價格。 / 實證結果，在估計參數值部份，發現文化資產保存重要性認同度、文化資產遺贈價值認同度、文化資產預算擴編認同度、年齡、文化產業消費頻率等變數，對受訪者的支付意願均有顯著影響；第一階段與第二階段的詢價金額係數估計值為負並且顯著，表示當詢價金額提升時，受訪者會傾向於不願意支付。在單界二元選擇問答下，Logit模型估算其值為181.56元，Probit模型估算其值為199.12元，在95％信心水準下區間估計值Logit模型其值為191.56元到171.56元之間，Probit模型其值為205.90元到192.34元之間；在雙界二元選擇問答下以Bivariabe Probit 估算結果得到第一次詢價的願付價格為145.69元，第二次詢價的願付價格為218.42 元，實證結果單界與雙界二元選擇模型願付價格差異不大。 / Nowadays, historic building, monument, and artifacts, facing difficult issue of damaging, are quickly dying away. Agencies and organizations whose mission is to protect and preserve historic and culturally important building, monument, and artifacts from the ravages of weather, pollution, development, and even use by the general public must compete urgently for needed resources. Government funding of the cultural arts has received considerable attention in recent years. Efforts to cut funding to the national endowment for the culture and declining budgets for public cultural organizations and art institution have raised questions about how much individuals value the culture and arts. Measuring the economic value of particular arts policies or public cultural organizations is difficult and important. The hard case for measuring economic value of cultural resources is that they are not captured readily by market prices. The appropriate resources to be allocated in public cultural or art institutions often get heated and considerable debate. Valuing the willingness to pay for cultural public goods, not only can be applied for measuring economic value to be used in benefit-cost analysis of public project, but also more efficient in the selection of investment program if the total value（use value and non-use value）can be estimated. The purpose of this study is using one of the non-market goods valuation method, contingent valuation method, to elicit a willingness to pay from individual for hypothetical changes in some situation, further more to value the use value and non-use value of the“National Center for Traditional Art ”. / The variables such as the IMPO,BEQU, BUDG, AGE, FRE1, have a significant positive effect on the WTP for a cultural public good valuing. The table broadly indicates that as the bid level is increased, the number of willing to pay the amount decreased. The empirical results show that under the single-bounded dichotomous choice model, the estimated WTP for Logit model is NT$181.56 and for Probit model is NT$199.12. Under the 95％ confidence, for Logit mode the estimated WTP is between NT $191.56 and NT $171.56, and for Probit model is between NT $205.90 and NT $192.34. Under the double-bounded dichotomous choice model, Bivariate Probit model was adopted to estimate the WTP. The first-estimated WTP is NT $145.69, and second-estimated WTP is NT $218.42. The estimated WTP under double bounded dichotomous choice model is not much different from the estimated WTP under single bounded dichotomous choice model.

保險契約中之停效與復效制度，為有別於一般民事契約之特殊制度，其目的在使一時忘記或無力繳交續期保費，不會立即遭到保險人終止保險契約，要保人並得在一段復效期間內，於符合一定條件下，恢復原保險契約之保障。至於復效時必須符合之條件，各國規定不盡相同，但通常包括下列項目：(1)復效申請書(2)提供被保險人之可保證明 (3) 繳清欠繳保費(4) 保險人之同意。我國過去因舊保險法、施行細則及示範條款三者間，對復效應具備之要件規範並不一致，引起學說之重大爭議，法院判決亦常見不同之判決結果，致保險實務上糾紛不斷。 為解決保險市場之脫序現象，九十六年七月十八日修正之保險法，乃對保險法第一百十六條作大幅修正，明確規定如下：「停止效力之保險契約，於停止效力之日起六個月內清償保險費、保險契約約定之利息及其他費用後，翌日上午零時起，開始恢復其效力。要保人於停止效力之日起六個月後申請恢復效力者，保險人得於要保人申請恢復效力之日起五日內要求要保人提供被保險人之可保證明，除被保險人之危險程度有重大變更已達拒絕承保外，保險人不得拒絕其恢復效力。」新法對保險市場新秩序之重建應有重大助益，但新法也衍生一些新的問題，諸如，可保證明之意義及範圍、要保人提供不實可保證明時應如何依法處理、危險程度有重大變更已達拒絕承保程度之認定標準及核保標準、保險人有無要求附條件同意復效之權利，以及復效生效時點如何認定…等疑義，均有待釐清及解決。本研究廣泛蒐集及比較各國立法制度，並整理我國實務判決重要爭點，剖析新法對保險市場產生造成之影響，並對新法產生之新問題提出本文意見與建議，以作為日後研擬修法時之參考。 / The suspension and reinstatement system of insurance contracts is a specific system different from other civil contracts. Its purpose is to prevent proposers, who forget to or are unable to pay premium other than the initial premium, from being terminated of insurance contracts by insurers. The proposer may reinstate the original policy within the time period for applying for reinstatement and when conforming to certain terms. Regarding the terms of reinstatement, the contents are varied among countries but usually include the following items: (1) a reinstatement application; (2) evidence of insurability; (3) prepayment of any overdue premium; and (4) approval of the reinstatement application. Before the Amendment to the Insurance Act in 2007, the terms of reinstatement were stipulated differently among the Insurance Act, the Enforcement Rules for the Insurance Act and the Model Provisions for life Insurance Policies. As a result, there were serious debates of schools, while different judgments delivered by courts of law for similar cases. Thus disputes were continuously happened in terms of insurance practices. Resolving the disorderly phenomenon in the insurance market, Article 116 of the Insurance Act was amended on 18 July 2007 as the following: “A suspended insurance contract shall be reinstated after the premium, the interest stipulated in the insurance contract, and other expenses are paid, provided that such payment is made within six months from the date of suspension. Where the proposer applies for reinstatement more than six months after the date of suspension, the insurer may require that the proposer furnish proof of insurability for the insured, and the insurer may not refuse reinstatement unless the insured's degree of risk has undergone a change that is sufficiently material as to justify refusal to insure”. The amended Act contributes the rebuilding of the order of the insurance market. However, it also produces some new problems. For example, the meaning and scope of the evidence of insurability, how to deal with the reinstatement when the proposer providing lapsed evidence of insurability, the approval and underwriting when the insured's degree of risk has undergone a change that is sufficiently material as to justify refusal to insure, whether the insurer has the right to require some conditions for its approval of reinstatement, and how to recognize the effective time of reinstatement. All these problems still remain unsolved. The study widely collects and compares different countries’ legislative systems, gets together the important points in dispute, analyzes the amended Act’s impacts on the insurance market, and presents opinions and recommendations, which could be reference for amending the Act in the future, on these new problems caused by the amended Act.

本研究的主要抱負旨在，藉著分析實證人口普查資料俾便檢視，受限於某種不利的人口條件之桎梏，復加上對迥然相異的特殊生命歷程之體驗，生活在臺灣地區的不同省籍之住民，其如何受到諸如年齡、性別、教育程度等人口或社會經濟特徵之影響，因此決定了自身在某一個時間點上所歸屬的婚姻狀況，及伴隨而來在整個人口母群中婚姻狀況的非常態之集體分佈模式與深度階層化現象。在實際作法上，本研究乃選擇某一個時間橫斷面（一九九０年）為分析基準，並清楚展現位於該時點之上，臺灣地區十五歲以上人口的婚姻狀況之分佈模式所具有的省籍差異；接著則進一步探討省籍和年齡、性別、教育程度等變項間之互動情形，冀賴此釐清隱身於省籍差異表象其後的形塑機制或成因。至於在本研究的定義中，所謂婚姻狀況的「狀態集合」（state space），乃由「未婚」、「有配偶同居」、「離婚分居」與「喪偶」等四個互斥且週延的類屬所構成。 具體而言，本研究有著兩個主要發現：首先，即所謂的第一代外省籍男性，儘管他們之中絕大多數早已過了知天命之年，卻有著極高比例（約30%）仍然未婚，而此一現象有很大的部分乃肇因於移民人口中男多女少、極端不平衡的性比例組成。同時，我們還發現，一種深刻的婚姻階層化確實存在於第一代外省籍男性身上。理由是他們之中因為教育程度低下而遭排除在婚姻市場以外的情形相當嚴重：低學歷的第一代外省籍男性中有接近三分之一的人半被迫地保持無限期單身，此與高學歷的第一代外省籍男性中的未婚者之比例相差了近20%左右，而我們相信前者的構成主體極有可能就是一般社會意象中的自謀生活老兵。惟值得慶幸的是，此種未婚人口比例偏高及附帶產生的深刻婚姻階層化現象在55歲以下的「外省人」身上已不復見。 其次，則是全體「外省人」，尤以男性為然，似乎也比同年輪的本省籍對應群有著更高的離婚分居者之比例，而且至少在40歲以上的各年齡層中皆無例外。這意謂著離婚人口比例偏高在「外省人」（尤其是男性）中也呈現出一種代間一致性（如果我們將40歲以上的「外省人」以55歲為界分作兩個世代的話）。而在我們大致描繪出第一代外省籍男性離婚分居者有著相較於同輩的「本省人」或外省籍女性稍高的失能比例，而且低教育程度者在其中過度代表等特質後，另一種形式的婚姻階層化業已呼之欲出：我們以為，一般社會意象中所普遍指涉的自謀生活之外省籍老兵，於其年輕之際雖然囿於自身有限的教育程度及所得收入而被排除在競爭激烈的婚姻市場以外，但他們之中仍然有一些人可能不甘願於打一輩子光棍，只好退而求其次地降低標準，在逾半百之年後選擇臺灣社會裡處於邊緣地位的非外省籍婦女作為配偶。但無可諱言的是，這樣的組合幾乎得與所謂的「貧賤夫妻」劃上等號；再加上在如此的配對裡，夫妻之間的籍貫、熟悉的語言，生活背景等差距實在太大，幾乎毫無交集可言，我們因此不難想像該類的異質性婚姻（heterogamy）通常很有可能為時不久即告瓦解。雖然我們沒有很明確的證據來支持上述的推論，但我們以為其相當程度上應該可以比較合理地解釋為何55歲以上的外省籍男性離婚分居者中會以低教育程度者為過度代表，同時失能者比例也偏高的事實。至於55歲以下的第二代外省籍男性中仍有較大比例的離婚分居者之原因，由於久缺更為有力的線索，本文遂以移民特質─其因喪失固有親屬網絡，而後者又為緩衝或調解婚姻衝突的主要支持來源，從而產生降低婚姻品質並提高離婚機會的可能－權充說明，實則臆測成分過高，此乃大有進一步探究的必要。 最後，有關本研究所可能面臨到的重大限制主要皆存在於次級資料的適用性上，這可分三點說明。第一就是1956年的普查資料中，軍人並無入籍的問題，這無疑將會導致，在「外省人」的部份，整體性比例的計算被低估，同時可能也無法突顯出究竟在哪幾個單一年齡組中的性比例特別不均衡。第二，就是在我們欲以家戶為單位，從而挑選出於普查當時仍維持已婚或有配偶同居狀態者以進行夫妻雙方的人口屬性或社經特徵之媒合（match）分析時，這些偏誤的樣本（biased sample）─其偏誤性主要來自於排除掉其他曾經維持過已婚或有配偶同居狀態者，如普查當時的喪偶者及離婚分居者─所傳遞出來的訊息是否仍然具有價值則需要更仔細地加以評估。而最後也是最大的一個限制，無疑就是在大陸早有妻室的第一代外省籍男子可能於接受普查之時卻報告自己的身分為未婚。儘管如此，我們仍以為將反映出婚姻之實（de facto）而非婚姻之名（de jural）的普查資料作為分析對象毋寧更富意義，畢竟上述之人在臺灣的的確確過了四十年以上的非婚生活，吾輩焉能不察。在這種看法之下，本研究更需要注意的或許是所謂「自述偏差」之情況，此即受社會壓力影響而做不實宣稱之現象。 目錄 第一章、前言 1 第一節 研究動機與目的 1 第二節 「婚姻狀況」釋義 7 第三節 研究旨趣－人口的婚姻狀況之分佈 10 第四節 影響人口在婚姻狀況上的分佈之可能機制 13 一、生命歷程 13 二、人口條件 14 三、階層化 14 四、其他 15 第二章、文獻探討 17 第一節 生命歷程與婚姻 17 第二節 婚姻擠壓再探 19 第三節 臺灣歷史上的婚姻擠壓經驗 21 第四節 夫妻差異（spouse difference）與婚姻存續的關聯 23 第三章、研究架構 26 第一節 研究方法與分析資料 26 第二節 分析架構 28 第四章、分析結果 30 第一節 臺灣地區人口之婚姻狀況分佈的省籍差異－整體的初步探討 30 第二節 臺灣地區人口之婚姻狀況分佈的省籍差異－省籍和性別的互動 32 一、未婚 32 二、有配偶同居 34 三、離婚分居 37 四、喪偶 37 第三節 婚姻解組（marital dissolution）模式的省籍差異 40 第四節 第一代「外省人」與婚姻階層化 46 第五章、成因探討 50 第一節 第一代「外省人」的性別組成與婚姻擠壓 50 第二節 「外省」老兵特殊的軍旅生活經驗及其影響 50 第三節 外省籍離婚者的基本人口特徵分析 55 第六章、結論 60 第一節 主要研究發現 68 第二節 研究限制 71 參考書目 74 中文部分 74 英文部分 76 附錄 82 圖表目錄 圖1-1-1：一九九五年美國20歲以上人口的婚姻狀況按年齡組分 5 圖1-1-2：一九九０年臺灣地區20歲以上人口的婚姻狀況按年齡組分 5 圖1-3-1：二次戰後歷年臺灣地區人口的婚姻狀況分佈之變化 12 圖2-4-1：夫妻差異與離婚行為所具有的可能關聯形式 25 圖3-3-1：分析架構 28 圖4-1-1：一九九０年臺灣地區本省籍人口的婚姻狀況按單一年齡分 31 圖4-1-2：一九九０年臺灣地區外省籍人口的婚姻狀況按單一年齡分 31 圖4-1-3：一九九０年臺灣地區15歲以上人口中未婚者所佔比例按單一年齡分 33 圖4-1-4：一九九０年臺灣地區單一年齡人口中未婚者所佔比例按籍別及性別分 33 圖4-1-5：一九九０年臺灣地區15歲以上人口中有配偶同居者所佔比例按單一年齡分 35 圖4-1-6：一九九０年臺灣地區單一年齡人口中有配偶同居者所佔比例按籍別及性別分 35 圖4-1-7：一九九０年臺灣地區15歲以上人口中離婚分居者所佔比例按單一年齡分 36 圖4-1-8：一九九０年臺灣地區單一年齡人口中離婚分居者所佔比例按籍別及性別分 36 圖4-1-9：一九九０年臺灣地區15歲以上人口中喪偶者所佔比例按單一年齡分 39 圖4-1-10：一九九０年臺灣地區單一年齡人口中喪偶者所佔比例按籍別及性別分 39 圖4-2-1：一九九０年臺灣地區本省籍人口之婚姻解組模式按單一年齡分 41 圖4-2-2：一九九０年臺灣地區外省籍人口之婚姻解組模式按單一年齡分 41 圖4-2-3：一九九０年臺灣地區單一年齡人口之婚姻解組模式按籍別及性別分 43 圖4-2-4：一九九０年臺灣地區人口之性比例按年齡與籍別分 45 圖4-2-5：一九九０年台灣地區外省籍人口的年齡金字塔 45 圖4-3-1：一九九０年臺灣地區外省籍人口教育程度按年齡組及婚姻狀況分 47 圖4-3-2：一九九０年臺灣地區本省籍人口教育程度按年齡組及婚姻狀況分 47 圖4-3-3：一九九０年臺灣地區55歲及以上人口的婚姻狀況按籍別、性別與教育程度分 49 圖4-3-4：一九九０年臺灣地區15-54歲人口的婚姻狀況按籍別、性別與教育程度分 49 圖5-1-1：歷年外省籍人口之性比例按單一年齡分 54 表1-3-1：歷年美國人口（18歲及以上者）在四種婚姻狀況中的分佈情形 10 表1-3-2：歷年臺灣地區人口（15歲及以上者）在四種婚姻狀況中的分佈情形 10 表1-3-3：一九九五年美國人口的婚姻狀況分佈按年齡組分 11 表4-2-1：一九九０年臺灣地區結婚人數按新郎新娘婚前狀況及年齡組分 43 表5-1-1：一九四五年以後來臺「外省人」按來臺年分及性別分 51 表5-1-2：歷年外省籍現住人口性比例 52 表5-1-3：歷年外省籍人口之性比例按五歲年齡組分 53 表5-3-1：一九九０年臺灣地區的離婚分居者之年齡分佈按籍別與性別分 60 表5-3-2：一九九０年臺灣地區的離婚分居者之身體狀況按籍別及年齡組分 61 表5-3-3：一九九０年臺灣地區的外省籍離婚分居者之身體狀況按性別及年齡組分 61 表5-3-4：一九九０年臺灣地區的離婚分居者之教育程度按籍別及年齡組分 62 表5-3-5：一九九０年臺灣地區的外省籍離婚分居者之教育程度按性別及年齡組分 62 表5-3-6：一九九０年臺灣地區本省籍全體人口、外省籍全體人口、外省籍男性人口和外省籍女性人口的教育程度按年齡組分 63 表5-3-7：一九九０年臺灣地區本省籍全體、外省籍全體、外省籍男性和外省籍女性中離婚分居者的教育程度之代表性指標按年齡組分 64 附錄表1-1：抽樣之15-29歲的丈夫與其妻子之年齡差距（夫減妻）的次數分佈按夫妻省籍配對模式分 82 附錄表1-2：抽樣之15-29歲的丈夫與其妻子之教育程度的交叉比例分析按夫妻省籍配對模式分 83 附錄表2-1：抽樣之30-54歲的丈夫與其妻子之年齡差距（夫減妻）的次數分佈按夫妻省籍配對模式分 84 附錄表2-2：抽樣之30-54歲的丈夫與其妻子之教育程度的交叉比例分析按夫妻省籍配對模式分 85 附錄表3-1：抽樣之55歲以上的丈夫與其妻子之年齡差距（夫減妻）的次數分佈按夫妻省籍配對模式分 86 附錄表3-2：抽樣之55歲以上的丈夫與其妻子之教育程度的交叉比例分析按夫妻省籍配對模式分 87 / The purpose of this study is to explore the domicile difference-between Mainlanders and Taiwanese（except the Aborigines）-of distribution of marital status for total dwellers older than 15 in Taiwan Area. We argue that, dominated by somewhat disadvantageous population conditions（e.g. unbalanced sex ratio）, one who experienced his own unique life course（like migration event） must belong to some kind of marital status at a certain time according to his other characteristics such as domicile, sex, age and education, which will add up to an abcdrmal collective distribution pattern of marital status for the total population. Accordingly, this study is conducted by employing the 1990 census in Taiwan Area. Results suggest that, compared with female Mainlanders and all Taiwanese of the same cohort, the never-married and the divorced are significantly over-represented in the first-generation male Mainlanders who was older than 55 in 1990. We conclude that it is his socioeconomic status but not his domicile that determines whether the first-generation male Mainlander is never-married, married or unmarried in his late years. In other words, we believe that among the first-generation male Mainlanders does exist severe marriage stratification to some degree.

本文嘗試在傳統的R&D模型中，引入技術引進的概念，並從技術發展型態的角度來探討其與經濟成長之關係。理論的結果告訴我們各個國家會採取何種技術發展的型態決定於其本身的技術水準。技術水準愈低的國家，基於成本的誘因，會採取較具優勢的技術引進的發展策略；相反地，技術水準較高的國家，則會利用本身較佳的技術優勢而自行研發。 採取不同技術發展型態的國家，其經濟成長的型態也跟著不同。採取技術引進策略的國家其成長的速度取決於本身和世界的技術差距，當差距愈大時，成長的速度就愈快；相反地，隨著差距的縮小，成長的速度也就會跟著緩慢下來。採取研發的國家，如同大部分R&D模型的結論，其均衡的成長路徑是維持一固定的成長率。 不同於以往內生成長模型只專注於長期的成長，我們的模型中，除了具有長期持續成長的特色外，更強調各個國家由於初始條件的差異及其成長的速度和世界成長的速度的不同，致使成長的路徑也會不同，而且每個國家收歛的恆定狀態也不相同，這也說明了為什麼世界各國之間會存在廣泛的所得差異性的現象。 另外，我們的理論也強調技術落後的國家不見得會永遠處於落後的地位，只要其成長的速度足夠支持其發生技術發展型態的結構性改變，就有可能追趕上先進國家，甚至超越。而原先處於領先地位的先進國家，也有可能因本身研發的效率退步，致使成長速度落後於世界的平均水準，結果反倒是由領先的地位退到落後國家之林。 而成長的另一個普遍獲得實證支持的現象，也就是在Solow模型中預測的條件性收歛，在我們的模型中的解釋是當一個國家的成長路徑一直高於世界的平均水準的話，換言之，該國家是一直在不斷進步的過程中，則也會發生所謂條件性收歛的現象。而我們的理論更預測了另一種現象是，當一個國家的成長路徑是處於世界平均水準之下的話，也就是說是由原本的領先退步到落後的過程中，其成長的速度反倒是開始時會較慢，而在接近收歛時開始加快速度，然後達到恆定狀態，這種現象和所謂的條件性收歛恰好反其道而行，我們稱之為逆條件性收歛現象。 除了理論之外，我們更藉由數值模擬的方式進行了政策上的分析。我們發現在成長速度上處於領先地位的國家，若要保持其領先的優勢，必定要採取研發的策略。而處於成長速度較緩慢的國家，若想要擺脫落後並追趕上領先國家的話，就得靠技術引進的方式來加快其成長的速度。 同時我們亦分析了幾種改變成長速度的政策手段，發現每一種政策的效果對不同的國家而言也不盡相同，所以各個國家所應採取的手段應視其條件而定。另外，當外生的世界成長率加快時，我們發現這個現象對成長速度落後的國家是很有幫助的，因為可以使得其速度加快趕上世界的水準。