本文研究目的有四：(1) 研究以本國通貨貶值率為政策工具的影響效果與相關的議題。(2) 探討由固定匯率到爬行釘住匯率再到浮動匯率崩潰的過程，並且分析有何關鍵因素，會影響匯率制度崩潰時間。(3) 討論匯率定錨政策失敗的原因，並提出以往文獻可能忽略的因素。(4) 分析通貨替代性是否會影響匯率政策的效果，甚至使匯率政策遭遇困難而失敗。為了達成研究目的，本文內容共分五章，除了第一章的緒論和第五章的總結外，其餘各章的內容為： 第二章延伸Calvo (1981) 的架構，加入Chen, Tsaur and Chou (1981)、曹添旺 (1987) 及張文雅、賴景昌和曹添旺 (1991) 的觀點，並仿照Liviatan (1891)、Engel (1989)、Calvo (1985) 的作法，設立一個具有通貨替代環境的小型開放經濟模型，探討本國通貨貶值率上升對經濟體系的影響。文中發現通貨之間若有較高 (較低) Edgeworth 替代關係，則本國通貨貶值率上升，經常帳會因此改善 (惡化)。本章亦針對通貨替代程度的不同，分析提升本國通貨貶值率政策對社會福利的影響效果，其中發現：不論是通貨替代程度大小，提升本國通貨貶值率政策對社會福利的影響均有兩種不同的情況，其中的一種是確定福利下降，另一種是不確定。 第三章仍然依據Chen, Tsaur and Chou (1981)、曹添旺 (1987) 及張文雅、賴景昌和曹添旺 (1991) 所強調通貨能提供流動性勞務，降低交易成本的功能，將本國通貨和外國通貨放入模型內，建立一個以交易功能為基礎的貨幣模型，探討由固定匯率崩潰到爬行釘住匯率，再由爬行釘住匯率崩潰到浮動匯率的過程，有何關鍵因素，會影響匯率制度崩潰時間。結果發現：(1) 不論是通貨替代、通貨互補或是通貨獨立的環境下，實際發生匯率制度崩潰的時間早於自然崩潰的時間。(2) 制度崩潰的時點由通貨替代或是通貨互補的程度決定，通貨替代性越是極端 (例如：完全互補或完全替代) 將使通貨危機越早發生，而通貨替代關係越低將使通貨危機發生時間延後。(3) 當固定匯率轉換到爬行釘住匯率時，所產生的外匯存底流失的額度將會是決定爬行釘住匯率制度是否能夠執行的關鍵。 第四章以代表性個人最適化模型的架構，加入Végh (1995) 主張外國通貨能提供流動性勞務，降低交易成本的觀點，建立一個具有通貨替代環境的交易成本貨幣成長模型，分析名目匯率定錨政策崩潰的過程與通貨替代程度的關連性，結果發現匯率定錨政策失敗的主因可能是名目匯率定錨政策違反經常帳跨期平衡所致。為了避免通貨危機提早發生，匯率政策須視通貨替代程度的高低作適當的調整。通貨替代程度較高時，貨幣當局應當在政策執行時，大幅的降低本國通貨貶值率，可使政策崩潰的時間延後；而通貨替代程度較低時，貨幣當局應當採用小幅度降低本國通貨貶值率，可拖延政策崩潰發生的時間。 / This paper has four purposes: (1) Research in the influence and relevant topics about adopting depreciation rate of the domestic currency as policy instrument. (2) Show the dynamics transition process from the fixed, to the crawling peg, and then to the flexible exchange rate regimes, and analyze the central factor about time of collapse of exchange rate regimes. (3) Research in the reason about the exchange-rate-based stabilization program fails, and it may be ignored by the existing literature. (4) Analyze the influence of the currency substitutability affects the effect of exchange rate policy, even to cause difficulty and failure. In order to achieve the research purposes, the content of this paper divides into five chapters, except that chapter 1 is the introduction and chapter 5 is conclusion; the rest is organized as follows: In chapter 2, this paper expands Calvo (1981) model, combining the spirit of Chen, Tsaur and Chou (1981), Tsaur (1987), Chang, Lai and Tsaur (1991) and the approach of Liviatan (1891), Engel (1989), Calvo (1985), we set up the framework for small open economy with currency substitution environments to explore the policy effects of a rise in the rate of devaluation domestic currency on economy. We find that if two currencies are higher (lower) degree of Edgeworth substitution, then a rise in the rate of devaluation domestic currency induced a current account surplus (deficit) on the transition path. This chapter also aims at the currency substitution degree the difference, the analysis about a rise in the rate of devaluation domestic currency to the social welfare influence effect. We show that no matter is the currency substitution degree size, a rise in the rate of devaluation domestic currency to have two kind of different situations to the social welfare influence, one is the definite welfare drops; another is an ambiguous. In chapters 3, we investigate the relationship between the collapse timing of exchange rate regime and degree of substitutability of foreign currency for domestic currency as a medium of exchange. According to the spirit of Chen, Tsaur and Chou (1981), Tsaur (1987), Chang, Lai and Tsaur (1991), we set up a transaction-based monetary model in which money provides liquidity services to reduce transaction costs, domestic and foreign currencies are introduced into the system. The results of study show (1) no matter what degree of substitutability of foreign currency for domestic currency, the collapse timing of the exchange rate regime is earlier than the natural collapse timing, and (2) the collapse timing depends on the degree of currency substitution or complement. We find that the extreme degree of substitutability of currencies led to earlier currency crisis; however, moderate degree of substitutability of currencies prolong currency crisis. We also explore the dynamic transition process from the fixed to the crawling peg, and then to the flexible exchange rate regimes. We find that the extent of the decrease in foreign exchange reserves is the key whether the fixed exchange rate is able to transform into the crawling peg exchange rate regime. In chapter 4, we investigate the relationship between the failures of exchange-rate-based stabilization program and degree of foreign currency substitutability. According to Végh (1995), we set up a transaction-based monetary model with currency substitution in which foreign currencies provides liquidity services to reduce transaction costs. The reason of failure on exchange-rate-based stabilization program is that it violates intertemporal current account balance constraint. In order to prolong the time of the currency crisis occurs, the exchange-rate-based stabilization program must regard the degree of currency substitution. When the degree of currency substitution is high, the monetary authority must reduce the rate of devaluation domestic currency largely, and when the degree of currency substitution is low, the monetary authority must narrow scale to reduce the rate of devaluation domestic currency, and prolong time of policy collapse occurrence.

經濟效率與經濟公平，是經濟學中最具爭議性的議題之一。俄羅斯自1992年開始由計劃經濟轉型為市場經濟，政府的首要目標就是追求經濟效率的提升，相較而言對於經濟公平的問題較不重視，因此，在轉型的過程中社會所得分配差距持續擴大，最終導致兩極化分配結果。 本文透過文獻整理和統計數據對比分析論證方法探究1992至1997年間俄羅斯轉型政策對其所得不均惡化之影響。首先，藉由俄羅斯轉型前、後所得不均指標之對比，以及其與同時期其他中所得國家和轉型國家之比較，暸解俄羅斯所得不均情況，證明俄國轉型後所得分配惡化程度。其次，由私有化政策、自由化政策、穩定化政策以及社會救助政策等四個層面，分析俄羅斯轉型政策如何影響其所得分配。最後，說明已經是市場經濟體且被譽為金磚四國之一的俄羅斯，其近年來亮麗的經濟成長表現和普欽總統之社會救助政策，對其所得不均皆尚未產生改善效果，故1998年後的俄國所得分配狀況仍値得改以市場因素和相關政策等方面作為觀察重點，進行後續研究。 關鍵詞：俄羅斯、所得不均、私有化、自由化、穩定化、社會救助政策 / Economic efficiency and equity have always been one of the most controversial issues in the economics. Russia began the transformation from a planned economy to a market economy since 1992, and during the process of transformation, the primary objective of the Russian government was to enhance economic efficiency, by contrast, the economic equity was less emphasized. Therefore, the inequality of income distribution had become more and more serious. At the end, it led to the polarization of income distribution. In this study, literature review, comparative analysis and statistical data analysis methods will be used to explore how Russian transformation policies had resulted in the aggravation of income inequality between 1992 and 1997. First of all, in order to clarify the income inequality in Russia, some income inequality indexes of Russia before and after the transformation will be compared, and by the comparison with other mid-income and transformation countries in the same era, we can identify the aggravation of income distribution after the transformation. Secondly, how Russian transformation policies had influenced income distribution will be analyzed from four aspects: privatization policy, liberalization policy, stabilization policy, and social assistance policies. Finally, author interpret that although Russia has moved towards a market economy and become one of the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries in recent years, its brilliant economic performance with Putin’s social assistance policies have not yet improved the situation. Therefore, author suggests that the further research on Russian income distribution after 1998 is better to focus on market factors and related economic policies. Keyword: Russia, Income Inequality, Privatization, Liberalization, Stabilization, Social Assistance Policy

本研究之研究目的旨在：(一) 探討友情、愛情與親情三種情感關係的共同性；(二) 探討友情、愛情與親情三種情感關係的獨特性；(三) 探討友情、愛情與親情三種情感關係之共同性與情感關係滿意度的關係；(四) 探討友情與愛情二種情感關係之共同性與情感關係穩定度的關係；(五) 探討友情關係中的性別差異。 研究者為690位大學生與研究生進行人際關係量表施測，分友情、愛情與親情三組樣本，各為230人；回收之有效問卷共617份，其中友情為203份、愛情為206份、親情為208份。調查結果透過描述統計、獨立樣本t考驗、單因子變異數分析、積差相關分析、簡單迴歸分析與多元迴歸分析進行研究分析工作 研究主要發現如下： 一、友情、愛情與親情三種情感關係有共同性存在。 二、愛情關係與親情關係有獨特性存在。 三、三種情感關係之共同性與情感關係滿意度有顯著正相關。 四、三種情感關係之共同性僅與友情關係穩定度有顯著正相關。 五、友情關係中，女性對「親密感」的重視顯著高於男性。 六、異性友誼中之「愛情成份」顯著高於同性友誼。 七、友情階段至愛情階段存在著漸變的光譜特質。 / The main purposes of this study are to explore: (a) the commonality of friendship, romantic relationship, and parent-child relationship, (b) the uniqueness of friendship, romantic relationship, and parent-child relationship, (c) the relationship between commonality and satisfaction of friendship, romantic relationship, and parent-child relationship, (d) the relationship between commonality and stability of friendship and romantic relationship, (e) the gender differences in friendship. A total of 690 undergraduate and postgraduate students participated in the study. The participants are then separated into three equal groups with 230 students in each group. The survey on the interpersonal relationship scale was then administered to each group regarding a unique relationship such as friendship, romantic relationship, and parent-child relationship. Total valid questionnaires are 617; among them are 203 regarding friendship, 206 regarding romantic relationship, and 208 regarding the parent-child relationship. Data were collected, processed, and analyzed using the following statistic methods: descriptive statistics, t-test, One-way ANOVA, Pearson's product-moment correlation, simple regression analysis, and simultaneous multiple regression analysis. Major findings are summarized as follows: 1.There are commonalities found among friendship, romantic relationship, and parent-child relationship. 2. There is uniqueness between romantic relationship and parent-child relationship. 3. There are significant positive correlations between the commonality and satisfaction of friendship, romantic relationship, and parent-child relationship. 4. There are significant positive correlations between the stability of friendship and the commonality of friendship, romantic relationship, and parent-child relationship. 5. Female students pay much attention to closeness than male students in friendship. 6. The romantic in opposite sex friendship shows significant positive correlation than in the same sex. 7. The gradual change of spectrum last in the stage of friendship to romantic stage.

本論文內容可區分為三部分、六章。 第一部分，為「導論」一第一章。其要項有： 一、研究目的：主在解答中共能源供需問題、中共參與中亞能源開發之策略、中共參與中亞能源開採之戰略涵義及對中亞國際情勢之影響。 二、研究範圍：研究的時空範圍，主要起自1992年申亞五國獨立建國至2001年止。研究國家主要以中亞主要產油國家及俄羅斯為對象。 三、研究方法：採現貿主義的國家利益與理性決策模式等途徑為主。 第二部分，為「理論實踐的現況研究」。 一、中共能源供需現況與解決途徑之研究與說明，作為論文的第二章。 二、中亞地區地緣戰略的重要性，及其能源儲藏現況與在國際能源市場中的地位及爭端因素，作為論文第三章。 三、中共參與中亞能源的實際作為與開發，對其國家利益之影響，作為論文的第四章。 四、從中亞國際的政治、經濟與安全層面，說明中共在開採中亞能源對此地區所造成的影響，作為論文第五章。 第三部分，為「結論」一第六章，其要項有： 一、中共成為中亞地區重要的權力角逐者。 二、中共利用國際聯盟以發展「大西部開發計畫」。 三、「中」美俄在中亞地區仍將處於爾虞我詐。 四、安全問題仍將是中共外交政策的重心。 五、中共與中亞國家政治、經濟與安全機制建構將不利於中華民國。

絕對多數候選人的票源並不是很均勻地分散在各地，反而都有一些表現在水準之上。本論文的焦點放在這些最強的地區。 首先正式定義候選人的「選舉地盤」以及兩個衡量地盤規模指標「強度」與「重要度」。以這些概念描述地盤與選區許多人文區位以及候選人個人特質的關係如何。結果發現最健全的地盤是由當選的男性國民黨籍候選人所建立的，且在農民偏多、教育程度偏低的地區。 接者，本論文探索地盤對政黨票源的影響如何。透過迴歸分析，可發現新黨候選人的地盤可說是強制配票策略的一個副產物。另外，本論文使用一個個案研究來討論國民黨責任區配票制度對地盤的影響力，發現地緣因素可能比配票制度還重要。再者，針對地盤是否增加政黨票源的問題，發現如果先控制所有黨籍候選人在全選區的表現後，候選人在其地盤確實會增加政黨的票源。 最後，本論文探討地盤在多次選舉的穩定性。首先建立兩個指標，即「守住值」與「增長值」，衡量兩次選舉地盤之間的穩定程度。以這兩個指標，發現一般候選人從一次選舉地盤到下次選舉地盤其實相當不穩定，兩次票源有頗大差異。接者，就再進一步探索何種地盤較穩定。一般地盤是由三部分所構成，即「盤心」、「盤邊」與「碎盤」。其中，盤心包含候選人故鄉，是地盤最穩定的一部分，最穩定的地盤都是大盤心型。最後，討論票源移轉的問題，許多政治力量，如家族、派系、黃復興黨部等等有無共享同一個票源。結果，可發現這些政治力量都有一個或大或小的「穩定地盤」，穩定地盤的票源都可以轉來轉去。 第一章 緒論 壹 研究動機與目的 貳 文獻檢閱 參 研究性質與方法 第二章 地盤及其特徵 壹 分析方法 貳 各種自變數對地盤單獨的影響 參 交互作用 肆 「一般」地盤的例子 伍 小結 第三章 政黨與地盤 壹 分析方法 貳 地盤為配票的副產物 參 國民黨候選人地盤為責任區 肆 政黨票源的增減與地盤的關係 伍 1995年高雄縣立法委員選舉 陸 小結 第四章 地盤的穩定性 壹 分析方法 貳 地盤的穩定程度：以尋求連任的候選人為例 參 地盤的結構 肆 地盤的分類 伍 票源的移轉 陸 小結 第五章 結論 壹 研究發現 貳 檢討與建議 / The support of the overwhelming candidates is not evenly spread over all areas. Instead, most candidates have certain areas in which they reap a number of votes well above the average for the whole district. These strongest areas are the focus of this thesis. We start by defining an "electoral base" as well as two indices to measure the scope of the base, "strength" and "importance." These concepts are used to describe the relationships between bases and several independent variables, including the demographic features of the electoral district and the particular attributes of the candidate. We find that bases are largest and most intense for winning, male, KMT candidates running in districts with high numbers of farmers and low overall education levels. The next section of the thesis deals with the relations between bases and political parties. Through regression analysis, we find that the bases of New Party candidates are actually just a by-product of the New Party's vote rationing system. We consider the possibility that KMT bases also result from the KMT's responsibility zone vote rationing system. However, a case study shows that localism seems to be more directly related to the bases that eventually take shape than the responsibility zone system. Next, we look into the question of whether bases increase a party's votes. We find that if the overall performance of the party's candidates in the entire electoral district is controlled, parties do get increased amounts of votes inside the bases of their candidates. In effect, bases do increase the number of votes the party gets. The final section of the thesis addresses the question of stability of bases over time. First, two indices, "defense" and "growth" are introduced to measure the stability of bases from one election to the next. We find that from the base of a candidate in one election to the base of the same candidate in the next election, there is a surprisingly large amount of instability; candidates' strongest areas in one election may not be their strongest areas in the next election. Faced with this finding, we look for the keys to stability. One key lies in the structure of the base. Most bases can be divided into three parts: "central areas," "adjacent areas," and "scattered areas." The central areas include the candidate's home town and are the most stable part of the base. The candidate's with the most stable bases tend to be those with large central areas. Finally, we look at the question of whether votes are transferable. Many different political forces are considered, including political families, local factions, and the KMT's military party branch. These forces all have a "core" of support which is stable and can be transferred among different candidates from the group.

本文羅爾斯社會整合理論研究旨在探索羅爾斯整合理論之穩定性及其 整合性格的問題,全文分為社會聯結(social union)與社會整合(social unity)二個場域討論,在縱剖面上,以穩定性的問題為中心貫穿二個場域; 在橫剖面上,以對的優先性(the priority of theright)為支架吸納所欲 討論的子題. 就穩定性的問題來說,在社會聯結中羅爾斯訴諸於道德人的 自律與完序社會的正義感來確保正義制度的穩定性;在社會整合中羅爾斯 修正以各種整全性學說所形成的交疊共識(overlapping consensus)來保 障穩定性的達成 .最重要的是,筆者認為包含式公共理性(inclusive public reason)為促使交疊共識與穩定性達成的最主要力量.而就整合性 格來說,社會聯結純粹是為了避免成為私有社會(private society)的設 計;至於社會整合,筆者認為是羅爾斯面對當代多元主義事實下所欲完成的 政治哲學任務.而筆者特別要強調,雖然羅爾斯一再否認其學說為目的論式 的主張,然而筆者認為其社會聯結與社會整合的設計是有著公共善(public good)的概念,筆者認為羅爾斯的公共善就是一個正義社會的達成,此不僅 僅是公民們所分享的終極目標,亦是羅爾斯社會藍圖的終極理想.

租稅和公債是政府籌措財源最主要的兩種方式。然而不同的財源籌措方式將產生不同的影響效果，因此評價並比較各種融通工具的相對優勢，是政府選擇融通方式時，所必須考慮的一個基本且重要的問題。如何籌措財源以舒緩財政窘迫的壓力，是當前政府最急切的關鍵和挑戰。因此本文探討由效率面以租稅或公債融通政府暫時性與永久性支出增加的相對優勢，提供若干理論研究，作為面臨融通工具選擇時的考量因素。 　　關於融通政府暫時性支出增加的分析，M.Feldstein(1985)認為只有利率等於時間折現率的條件下，公債優於租稅：若時間折現率低於利率時，公債未必優於租稅。本文修正M.Feldstein(1985)模型，進一步考慮公債的債息融通方式及還本期限等問題，計算公債融通的負擔並與租稅負擔相較。 　　關於融通政府永久性增加的分析，S.J.Turnovsky(1992)比較分別以定額稅、工資稅和資本稅融通對即時效用和福利的影響，認為以短期而言，較佔優勢的融通工具，就長期觀點來看未必如此。其亦注意各融通工具間就穩定性的不同。本文以Turnovsky(1992)模型為分析基礎，加入公債融通的考慮，著重於對公債與定額稅穩定條件差異的強調。

動態資料往往隨著時間區間取法或測量工具的不同而有差異,此種不確定的特質我們稱為模糊性。但是傳統的時間數列仍是以確定的觀察值來記錄具有模糊性的動態資料。為了更完整的表示一個動態過程,我們考慮模糊時間數列(fuzzy time series)以具有不確定性的模糊集合來取代明確的數值,保持原來的模糊性。 本文探討模糊時間數列中模糊自我迴歸模式(fuzzy autoregressive model簡寫為 FAR 模式)的建構過程,並分別利用此模式來預測中央政府總預算和匯率。FAR 模式乃根據Box-Jenkins(1970)所提出的 ARMA 三階段模式建立的流程並推廣Zadeh(1965)所提出的模糊集合理論而來。在這過程中 ,我們考慮人類思維方法,使FAR 模式更具有彈性且適合未來預測時的需要。而對於所討論的動態過程,也不需要任何模式上的假設(例如:線性或穩定 ),因此 FAR 模式的適用範圍極為廣泛,更不會因為模式的誤判而導致預測時的嚴重錯誤。最後,我們將 FAR 模式的預測結果與傳統 ARMA 模式做比較。 文中關於模糊時間數列的一些性質,例如:模糊趨勢(fuzzy trend)和模糊穩定(fuzzy stationary),由於傳統文獻中沒有加以討論,本文亦提出定義和新的看法。 / Representations of dynamic data are always different as the time interval or measuring tool change. We call these characteristics of uncertainty fuzziness. But traditional time series use crisp observations to record a fuzzy dynamic process. To completely represent, we consider fuzzy time series replacing the crisp numbers with fuzzy sets and preserve original fuzziness. In this paper, the fuzzy autoregressive model (FAR model) of fuzzy time series is studied and used to forecast the Central government expenditure and exchange rates, respectively. The modeling process is according to Box- Jenkins' (1970) method of ARMA model and merged with the fuzzy set theory proposed by Zadeh (1965). Reasonable human judgements and ways of thinking are taken into consideration throughout the modeling process to make the FAR model more elastic and appropriate for forecasting. Unlike certain incorrectly identified models which lead to inaccurate forecasts, the FAR model can be widely applied due to its not having any assumptions on the original time series (e.g., linearity and stationarity). Finally, the performances of the FAR model to Central government expenditure and exchange rates are compared with that of the traditional ARMA model. Additionally, some properties about fuzzy time series, e.g., fuzzy trend and fuzzy stationary, have not been studied in the literature, and we propose definitions and new opinions.

北京市為解決嚴重的道路堵塞問題，自2010年12月23日實施汽車限購政策。北京市於2010年10月傳出將要實施汽車限購政策，而本研究使用差中差方法估計消息傳出至開始實施日期間，政策消息對於汽車銷售量之影響。 研究中所使用之汽車銷售資料來源為中國「車輛登記管理所」中的「全中國登錄各月新增車輛」，以及「太平洋汽車網」的汽車詳細特性資料整理而成。以北京市為實驗組，其他非北京城市，與重慶市、天津市等為對照組，在控制了汽車特性以及加入了時間趨勢之後，可從實證結果得知，不論是以哪些城市當作對照組，在這段期間內，北京市的汽車銷售量皆有顯著的增加，與預測的結果相符。 在研究最後進一步使用穩定性檢驗，證明北京市汽車銷售量的突然增加是否真的為政策消息影響。最後結果亦與預期相符，證實北京市的汽車銷售量突然增加是由汽車限購政策消息所影響。 / To solve the serious road congestion problems, Beijing has implemented the restrictions on car ownership. In October, 2010, news started to spread that Beijing would bring the automobile purchase limit policy into practice. This study, using a method named “difference-in-difference”, estimated the policy’s impact on automobile sales volume in the period from when the news was launched to the day the policy was actually implemented. The data in this paper come from “Monthly Increase in Registered Vehicles Across China” of “Vehicle Registration and Management Bureau of China”, and the detailed characteristic data of vehicles from “Pacific Automobile Network”. We set Beijing as the experimental group, and the non-Beijing cities such as Chongqing and Tianjin as the control group. After controlling the characteristics of vehicles and adding time trend, we can learn from the experimental result that no matter which city is used as the control group, during the period, the vehicle sales volumes in Beijing increase significantly, which meets our expectation. In the last step of the research, stability test is used to prove whether the sudden increase of Beijing’s automobile sales volume is affected by the spread news. And the final result is also in accord with our expectation: the sudden increase in Beijing’s automobile sales volume is affected by the spread news of the automobile purchase limit policy.

本文試圖為當前現實主義中，國際政治理論發展的問題與瓶頸，作一概略的檢視、提出可能的倡議，並進行實證研究加以檢驗。本文發現攻勢與守勢現實主義之爭，是理論發展上不必要的誤會，現實主義內的理論爭議，其實仍是分析層次的問題：單元層級的解釋混亂繁瑣而難以驗證，但體系層級基於權力分配結構的解釋，卻也不盡圓滿。因此，本文嘗試在現實主義的物質能力傳統中，對體系穩定的變動提出「體系穩定的互動解釋」與「體系穩定的結構解釋」之新嘗試，以求在名稱上貼近解釋倡議的實質內容，跳脫過去攻勢、守勢現實主義理論名稱劃分的漩渦，並作為未來建立國際政治理論的可能選擇。 本文指出，互動能力的概念，不僅是新的解釋來源，也是界定體系範疇的前提，未來的國際政治理論應利用攻守平衡的解釋邏輯，在結構之外的互動能力解釋來源中，開發科技與地理等兩項解釋變數；並發掘結構解釋來源中，絕對的權力分配作解釋變數，再分別從此導出推論；而有關穩定的意涵，也應從戰爭的避免，擴大為對和平的威脅。本文的實證研究範圍訂在一六四八年至今的歐洲乃至全球體系，本文將先分別呈現各項解釋變數在各個時代的變化，以及依據推論所應出現的結果，再對照實際上體系穩定的變異狀態，以檢驗各項推論。整體而言，本文所進行的實證研究大致上是獲得了相當的正面結果。 / The purposes of this thesis are: examining the current obstructions in Realist theory of international politics, proposing alternatives, and conducting empirical studies. The thesis finds that, the debates between Offensive and Defensive Realism are unnecessary. The level of analysis problem is still crucial: unit level explanations are complex and hard to test, but system level explanations base on the structure of relative power distribution are not satisfactory either. Thus, to get rid of the offensive and defensive labeling, the thesis proposes two alternatives within the Realist material tradition: “interaction” and “structure” explanations on the stability of the international system. The thesis argues that, interaction capacity is both a source of explanation and the precondition of a system. In the future, the theory of international politics should take offense-defense balance as logic of explanation to explore technology, geography, and absolute power distribution as independent variables. In addition, the concept of stability as a dependent variable should also be expanded. Stability is not merely the avoidance of war, but the threat to peace. The scope of the qualitative empirical studies are European and global international systems from 1648 to present. In general, the thesis finds rather positive results to support the interaction and structure explanations.