In this study I examine voter response at an interview level using a dataset of 7562 voter contacts (including responses and nonresponses) in the 2004 Utah Colleges Exit Poll. In 2004, 4908 of the 7562 voters approached responded to the exit poll for an overall response rate of 65 percent. Logistic regression is used to estimate factors that contribute to a success or failure of each interview attempt. This logistic regression model uses interviewer characteristics, voter characteristics (both respondents and nonrespondents), and exogenous factors as independent variables. Voter characteristics such as race, gender, and age are strongly associated with response. An interviewer's prior retail sales experience is associated with whether a voter will decide to respond to a questionnaire or not. The only exogenous factor that is associated with voter response is whether the interview occurred in the morning or afternoon.

This thesis addresses three relevant macroeconomic issues: (i) why<p>Central Banks behave so cautiously compared to optimal theoretical<p>benchmarks, (ii) do monetary variables add information about<p>future Euro Area inflation to a large amount of non monetary<p>variables and (iii) why national saving and investment are so<p>correlated in OECD countries in spite of the high degree of<p>integration of international financial markets.<p><p>The process of innovation in the elaboration of economic theory<p>and statistical analysis of the data witnessed in the last thirty<p>years has greatly enriched the toolbox available to<p>macroeconomists. Two aspects of such a process are particularly<p>noteworthy for addressing the issues in this thesis: the<p>development of macroeconomic dynamic stochastic general<p>equilibrium models (see Woodford, 1999b for an historical<p>perspective) and of techniques that enable to handle large data<p>sets in a parsimonious and flexible manner (see Reichlin, 2002 for<p>an historical perspective).<p><p>Dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models (DSGE) provide the<p>appropriate tools to evaluate the macroeconomic consequences of<p>policy changes. These models, by exploiting modern intertemporal<p>general equilibrium theory, aggregate the optimal responses of<p>individual as consumers and firms in order to identify the<p>aggregate shocks and their propagation mechanisms by the<p>restrictions imposed by optimizing individual behavior. Such a<p>modelling strategy, uncovering economic relationships invariant to<p>a change in policy regimes, provides a framework to analyze the<p>effects of economic policy that is robust to the Lucas'critique<p>(see Lucas, 1976). The early attempts of explaining business<p>cycles by starting from microeconomic behavior suggested that<p>economic policy should play no role since business cycles<p>reflected the efficient response of economic agents to exogenous<p>sources of fluctuations (see the seminal paper by Kydland and Prescott, 1982}<p>and, more recently, King and Rebelo, 1999). This view was challenged by<p>several empirical studies showing that the adjustment mechanisms<p>of variables at the heart of macroeconomic propagation mechanisms<p>like prices and wages are not well represented by efficient<p>responses of individual agents in frictionless economies (see, for<p>example, Kashyap, 1999; Cecchetti, 1986; Bils and Klenow, 2004 and Dhyne et al. 2004). Hence, macroeconomic models currently incorporate<p>some sources of nominal and real rigidities in the DSGE framework<p>and allow the study of the optimal policy reactions to inefficient<p>fluctuations stemming from frictions in macroeconomic propagation<p>mechanisms.<p><p>Against this background, the first chapter of this thesis sets up<p>a DSGE model in order to analyze optimal monetary policy in an<p>economy with sectorial heterogeneity in the frequency of price<p>adjustments. Price setters are divided in two groups: those<p>subject to Calvo type nominal rigidities and those able to change<p>their prices at each period. Sectorial heterogeneity in price<p>setting behavior is a relevant feature in real economies (see, for<p>example, Bils and Klenow, 2004 for the US and Dhyne, 2004 for the Euro<p>Area). Hence, neglecting it would lead to an understatement of the<p>heterogeneity in the transmission mechanisms of economy wide<p>shocks. In this framework, Aoki (2001) shows that a Central<p>Bank maximizing social welfare should stabilize only inflation in<p>the sector where prices are sticky (hereafter, core inflation).<p>Since complete stabilization is the only true objective of the<p>policymaker in Aoki (2001) and, hence, is not only desirable<p>but also implementable, the equilibrium real interest rate in the<p>economy is equal to the natural interest rate irrespective of the<p>degree of heterogeneity that is assumed. This would lead to<p>conclude that stabilizing core inflation rather than overall<p>inflation does not imply any observable difference in the<p>aggressiveness of the policy behavior. While maintaining the<p>assumption of sectorial heterogeneity in the frequency of price<p>adjustments, this chapter adds non negligible transaction<p>frictions to the model economy in Aoki (2001). As a<p>consequence, the social welfare maximizing monetary policymaker<p>faces a trade-off among the stabilization of core inflation,<p>economy wide output gap and the nominal interest rate. This<p>feature reflects the trade-offs between conflicting objectives<p>faced by actual policymakers. The chapter shows that the existence<p>of this trade-off makes the aggressiveness of the monetary policy<p>reaction dependent on the degree of sectorial heterogeneity in the<p>economy. In particular, in presence of sectorial heterogeneity in<p>price adjustments, Central Banks are much more likely to behave<p>less aggressively than in an economy where all firms face nominal<p>rigidities. Hence, the chapter concludes that the excessive<p>caution in the conduct of monetary policy shown by actual Central<p>Banks (see, for example, Rudebusch and Svennsson, 1999 and Sack, 2000) might not<p>represent a sub-optimal behavior but, on the contrary, might be<p>the optimal monetary policy response in presence of a relevant<p>sectorial dispersion in the frequency of price adjustments.<p><p>DSGE models are proving useful also in empirical applications and<p>recently efforts have been made to incorporate large amounts of<p>information in their framework (see Boivin and Giannoni, 2006). However, the<p>typical DSGE model still relies on a handful of variables. Partly,<p>this reflects the fact that, increasing the number of variables,<p>the specification of a plausible set of theoretical restrictions<p>identifying aggregate shocks and their propagation mechanisms<p>becomes cumbersome. On the other hand, several questions in<p>macroeconomics require the study of a large amount of variables.<p>Among others, two examples related to the second and third chapter<p>of this thesis can help to understand why. First, policymakers<p>analyze a large quantity of information to assess the current and<p>future stance of their economies and, because of model<p>uncertainty, do not rely on a single modelling framework.<p>Consequently, macroeconomic policy can be better understood if the<p>econometrician relies on large set of variables without imposing<p>too much a priori structure on the relationships governing their<p>evolution (see, for example, Giannone et al. 2004 and Bernanke et al. 2005).<p>Moreover, the process of integration of good and financial markets<p>implies that the source of aggregate shocks is increasingly global<p>requiring, in turn, the study of their propagation through cross<p>country links (see, among others, Forni and Reichlin, 2001 and Kose et al. 2003). A<p>priori, country specific behavior cannot be ruled out and many of<p>the homogeneity assumptions that are typically embodied in open<p>macroeconomic models for keeping them tractable are rejected by<p>the data. Summing up, in order to deal with such issues, we need<p>modelling frameworks able to treat a large amount of variables in<p>a flexible manner, i.e. without pre-committing on too many<p>a-priori restrictions more likely to be rejected by the data. The<p>large extent of comovement among wide cross sections of economic<p>variables suggests the existence of few common sources of<p>fluctuations (Forni et al. 2000 and Stock and Watson, 2002) around which<p>individual variables may display specific features: a shock to the<p>world price of oil, for example, hits oil exporters and importers<p>with different sign and intensity or global technological advances<p>can affect some countries before others (Giannone and Reichlin, 2004). Factor<p>models mainly rely on the identification assumption that the<p>dynamics of each variable can be decomposed into two orthogonal<p>components - common and idiosyncratic - and provide a parsimonious<p>tool allowing the analysis of the aggregate shocks and their<p>propagation mechanisms in a large cross section of variables. In<p>fact, while the idiosyncratic components are poorly<p>cross-sectionally correlated, driven by shocks specific of a<p>variable or a group of variables or measurement error, the common<p>components capture the bulk of cross-sectional correlation, and<p>are driven by few shocks that affect, through variable specific<p>factor loadings, all items in a panel of economic time series.<p>Focusing on the latter components allows useful insights on the<p>identity and propagation mechanisms of aggregate shocks underlying<p>a large amount of variables. The second and third chapter of this<p>thesis exploit this idea.<p><p>The second chapter deals with the issue whether monetary variables<p>help to forecast inflation in the Euro Area harmonized index of<p>consumer prices (HICP). Policymakers form their views on the<p>economic outlook by drawing on large amounts of potentially<p>relevant information. Indeed, the monetary policy strategy of the<p>European Central Bank acknowledges that many variables and models<p>can be informative about future Euro Area inflation. A peculiarity<p>of such strategy is that it assigns to monetary information the<p>role of providing insights for the medium - long term evolution of<p>prices while a wide range of alternative non monetary variables<p>and models are employed in order to form a view on the short term<p>and to cross-check the inference based on monetary information.<p>However, both the academic literature and the practice of the<p>leading Central Banks other than the ECB do not assign such a<p>special role to monetary variables (see Gali et al. 2004 and<p>references therein). Hence, the debate whether money really<p>provides relevant information for the inflation outlook in the<p>Euro Area is still open. Specifically, this chapter addresses the<p>issue whether money provides useful information about future<p>inflation beyond what contained in a large amount of non monetary<p>variables. It shows that a few aggregates of the data explain a<p>large amount of the fluctuations in a large cross section of Euro<p>Area variables. This allows to postulate a factor structure for<p>the large panel of variables at hand and to aggregate it in few<p>synthetic indexes that still retain the salient features of the<p>large cross section. The database is split in two big blocks of<p>variables: non monetary (baseline) and monetary variables. Results<p>show that baseline variables provide a satisfactory predictive<p>performance improving on the best univariate benchmarks in the<p>period 1997 - 2005 at all horizons between 6 and 36 months.<p>Remarkably, monetary variables provide a sensible improvement on<p>the performance of baseline variables at horizons above two years.<p>However, the analysis of the evolution of the forecast errors<p>reveals that most of the gains obtained relative to univariate<p>benchmarks of non forecastability with baseline and monetary<p>variables are realized in the first part of the prediction sample<p>up to the end of 2002, which casts doubts on the current<p>forecastability of inflation in the Euro Area.<p><p>The third chapter is based on a joint work with Domenico Giannone<p>and gives empirical foundation to the general equilibrium<p>explanation of the Feldstein - Horioka puzzle. Feldstein and Horioka (1980) found<p>that domestic saving and investment in OECD countries strongly<p>comove, contrary to the idea that high capital mobility should<p>allow countries to seek the highest returns in global financial<p>markets and, hence, imply a correlation among national saving and<p>investment closer to zero than one. Moreover, capital mobility has<p>strongly increased since the publication of Feldstein - Horioka's<p>seminal paper while the association between saving and investment<p>does not seem to comparably decrease. Through general equilibrium<p>mechanisms, the presence of global shocks might rationalize the<p>correlation between saving and investment. In fact, global shocks,<p>affecting all countries, tend to create imbalance on global<p>capital markets causing offsetting movements in the global<p>interest rate and can generate the observed correlation across<p>national saving and investment rates. However, previous empirical<p>studies (see Ventura, 2003) that have controlled for the effects<p>of global shocks in the context of saving-investment regressions<p>failed to give empirical foundation to this explanation. We show<p>that previous studies have neglected the fact that global shocks<p>may propagate heterogeneously across countries, failing to<p>properly isolate components of saving and investment that are<p>affected by non pervasive shocks. We propose a novel factor<p>augmented panel regression methodology that allows to isolate<p>idiosyncratic sources of fluctuations under the assumption of<p>heterogenous transmission mechanisms of global shocks. Remarkably,<p>by applying our methodology, the association between domestic<p>saving and investment decreases considerably over time,<p>consistently with the observed increase in international capital<p>mobility. In particular, in the last 25 years the correlation<p>between saving and investment disappears.<p> / Doctorat en sciences économiques, Orientation économie / info:eu-repo/semantics/nonPublished

Les patients atteints de maladie de Parkinson présentent des troubles de la marche, parfois paroxystiques, pouvant être aggravés ou améliorés par les stimuli environnementaux. L'attention portée, soit aux stimuli extérieurs, soit à la marche, pourrait ainsi moduler la locomotion.L’objectif principal était donc de mieux caractériser la manière dont les stimuli environnementaux modulent par le biais de réseaux attentionnels la locomotion. Ceci a été étudié chez les sujets sains puis chez les patients parkinsoniens, avec ou sans enrayage cinétique.Nous avons d'abord défini précisément les déficits attentionnels des patients, avec ou sans troubles de la marche. Ils présentaient respectivement des difficultés en flexibilité mentale et plus particulièrement en attention divisée.Nous avons ensuite exploré l'interaction attention-locomotion grâce à l'étude de la préparation motrice. Ainsi, nous avons pu démontrer que les ajustements posturaux anticipés étaient un marqueur sensible de l’attention. Chez les patients, ils pouvaient témoigner d’une altération de l'interaction attention-programmation motrice.L'étude des régions cérébrales activées lors de la locomotion visuo-guidée chez ces patients a permis de confirmer l'implication de structures corticales attentionnelles. Un déséquilibre d’activation au sein du réseau pariéto-prémoteur (nécessaire à la modulation de l'action motrice en fonction des stimuli externes) était présent.Enfin, nous avons essayé de modifier l'excitabilité du cortex prémoteur via des techniques de stimulation magnétique transcrânienne répétitive afin de moduler la locomotion visuo-guidée. / Patients with Parkinson 's disease present gait impairments, sometimes sudden and unexpected, either improved or deteriorated with environmental stimuli. Attention focalization, either on external stimuli or on gait, could then modulate locomotion.The main objective was to better characterize how environmental stimuli would modulate locomotion, via attentional networks, in healthy subjects and in parkinsonian patients, with or without freezing of gait.At first, we precisely defined the attentional deficits in patients, with or without gait impairment. They showed altered performance respectively in mental flexibility and in divided attention.Then, we explored the attention-locomotion interaction by studying motor preparation. So, we highlighted that anticipatory postural adjustments were a sensitive marker of attention. In patients, they evidenced an alteration of the attention-motor program interaction.Studying the brain activation during the visuo-driven locomotion in these patients confirmed the involvement of cortical attentional regions. We observed an imbalance inside the parieto-premotor network (useful to modulate motor action according external stimuli)Finally, we tried to change the excitability of the premotor cortex with transcranial magnetic stimulation to modulate visuo-driven locomotion.

This thesis survey on juxtaposition choice waies evaluation for real property type residence and non-residential space in locality Lesná, where there are built - up type sectional construction namely more - housing type J. Are here used most common manners evaluation for these print real property. On top enclosed is several formulation of several estate agency (juxtaposition offers with demand) in given to locality. Further also design documentation housing periods in type panel building.

Performance measurements have been described as a tool by which management can communicate expected standards of behavior as well as a shared meaning among members regarding the intended direction of the firm. In parallel, the organizational identity field relies on the premise that members can answer the question “who are we as an organization?” through a sense of shared understanding. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the implications a performance measurement system has on the employees’ perception of “who we are“, related to the theoretical framework of organizational identity. This paper utilizes a qualitative research method, a case-based approach of a Swedish life science company which is conducted in an exploratory manner. The case company is chosen due to its contextual setting regarding the newly implemented performance measurement system, along with the inherent characteristics of the industry in general, which is typically considered to be incongruent with such quantitative measurements. The empirical data is collected through eight interviews with members from the chosen case company, as well as through internal documents describing its performance measurement system. The authors propose a revised theoretical framework in which performance measurements and organizational identity are investigated through a conceptual model which explores their dynamic relationship. The findings reinforce well-known ideas of performance measurements and organizational identity, along with providing new insights on the dynamics between them. Keywords: Organizational Identity, Performance Measurement System, Performance Management, Identity-Dynamics

Le changement climatique est devenu aujourd’hui le fléau environnemental qui préoccupe etmobilise le plus la communauté internationale. L’aboutissement de cette mobilisation générale reste sansdoute la mise en place du régime international de lutte contre le changement climatique dont la Conventioncadredes Nations Unies sur le changement climatique et le Protocole de Kyoto constituent les basesjuridiques. Ce régime innove en ce qu’il fixe des engagements quantifiés de réduction des émissions de gaz àeffet de serre pour les États pollueurs, mais aussi en ce qu’il instaure des mécanismes dits de « flexibilité »dont la mise en oeuvre est assortie d’un contrôle original basé sur un Comité dit de « l’observance ». Mais, endépit de toute cette production normative, il est regrettable de constater aujourd’hui que le régimeinternational du climat est un véritable échec. En effet, si la mobilisation des États ne fait aucun doute, enrevanche, les mêmes États qui ont volontairement accepté de s’engager refusent délibérément d’honorer leursengagements pour des raisons essentiellement politiques, économiques et stratégiques. Ce travail ambitionnedonc de lever le voile sur les causes de cet échec en dressant un bilan mitigé de la première périoded’engagement de Kyoto qui a pris fin en 2012, et propose des perspectives pour un régime juridique duclimat post-Kyoto efficient et efficace, en mesure d’être à la hauteur des enjeux. / Climate change has become the scourge environmental concern and mobilizes more theinternational community. The outcome of this mobilization remains probably the implementation ofinternational climate change regime for which the Climate Convention and the Kyoto Protocol are the legalbases. This system is innovative in that it sets quantified emission reduction commitments for greenhouse gasemissions (GHG) for polluters States, but also in that it establishes mechanisms known as of “flexibility”whose implementation is accompanied by a control based on a Committee known as of “compliance”. Butdespite all this normative production, it is regrettable that today the international climate regime is a realfailure. Indeed, if the mobilization of states is no doubt, however, the same states that have voluntarily agreedto engage deliberately refuse to honour their commitments for essentially political, economic and strategicreasons. This work therefore aims to shed light on the causes of this failure by developing a mixed record ofthe first Kyoto commitment ended period in 2012, and offers prospects for a legal regime of the post-Kyotoclimate and efficient, able to be up to the challenges.

Globaliseringen bidrar till en ökad världshandel och medför även ett växande antal gränsöverskridande koncerninterna transaktioner inom multinationella företag. Prissättningen av transaktioner vilka vidtas mellan närstående företag måste ske i enlighet med armlängdsprincipen som om transaktionerna vidtagits mellan två oberoende företag. Skattemyndigheterna kan justera internpriserna i slutet av beskattningsåret i de fall de anser att internprissättningen avviker från armlängdsprincipen och marknadsmässiga villkor. Utöver inkomstbeskattning åläggs företagen att betala tullavgifter i samband med transaktioner vidtagna med närstående företag etablerade utanför EU. I likhet med skattemyndigheterna granskar tullmyndigheterna företagens importpriser i syfte att säkerställa att parternas närståenderelation inte påverkat prissättningen. Båda myndigheterna arbetar således för samma mål, att upprätthålla prissättningens förenlighet med marknadsmässiga villkor. Skatte- och tullmyndigheterna tillämpar dock olika prissättningsmetoder i syfte att uppnå målet. Inkomstskatten baseras på företagens totala inkomster, relaterade till transaktionerna och tullavgiften beräknas baserat på varje specifik transaktion och vara. Det faktum att myndigheterna inkluderar olika tillgångar i de respektive beskattningsunderlagen kan medföra att de bedömer värdet av samma transaktion olika. Varierande bedömningar av samma pris kan vidare medföra krav på olika prisjusteringar i syfte att uppnå marknadsmässig prissättning. Prisjusteringar kan leda till onödiga skattetillägg och liknande straffavgifter. Det föreligger svårigheter för multinationella företag att bestämma transaktionspriser som uppfyller båda myndigheternas i syfte att undvika straffavgifter.     Problematiken är ännu relativt ouppmärksammad av företag i världen. I amerikansk praxis framkommer att möjligheterna är små för företag att förlita sig på dokumentation upprättad för internprissättning, i syfte att styrka tullavgifter och tullvärde. Det är således betydelsefullt att företag upprättar dokumentationer för både internprissättning och tullvärde för att undvika straffavgifter. Dokumentationen utgör huvudsakligt bevis och ligger till grund för bedömningen av huruvida företagen uppfyllt bevisbördan avseende prisernas förenlighet med marknadsmässiga villkor. Företagen bör etablera en öppen kommunikation med de respektive myndigheterna i syfte att minimera risker för missförstånd eventuella framtida prisjusteringar. Det är bättre att förekomma än att förekommas. / The ‘arm’s length principle’ is fundamental to transfer pricing and cross-border intercompany transactions. The principle states that the prices charged for transactions of goods between related parties must be the same as if the parties were unrelated. Simply, the price needs to equal market values. If the Tax Authority finds the pricing to be inconsistent with the arm’s length principle, the price may be adjusted. In relation to cross-border intercompany transactions outside of the EU, companies have to pay customs duty and regard customs values. The Customs Authorities work to ensure that the price has not been influenced by the intercompany relationship. Thus, the Tax and Customs Authorities share the same goal, which is to ensure that the transaction price is consistent with market values. However, the methods of pursuing the goal differ. The Tax Authorities determine the amount of income tax based on the company’s total revenues deriving from cross-border intragroup transactions. The Customs Authorities on the contrary determine the amount of taxable income based on the value of every specific imported product. The authorities usually consider different values and assets when determining the amount of taxable income. Therefore the same transaction price may be evaluated differently by the Tax and Customs authorities. Price adjustments may be made if the transaction price is considered to differ in relation to market values. Thus, the companies may be obligated to pay tax surcharges or similar monetary penalties. The authorities’ different assessments of the same transaction price may result in difficulties for multinational enterprises in their efforts of meeting both requirements. The problem is regarded in varying degrees in different countries. In American precedent the court has determined the opportunities to be low for companies to depend on transfer pricing documentation when supporting customs value. It is important for companies to keep detailed documentation of both transfer pricing and customs valuation. The documentation serve as vital evidence when proving the compatibility of transaction prices with market values. Companies should also establish good communications with the authorities in order to prepare them for potential future price adjustments.  Prevention is better than cure.