本論文主要是透過產業經濟學中的產業組織研究，運用J. S. Bain及F. M. Scherer 為首的市場結構－行為－績效(S-C-P)的分析方式，來探討中國大陸汽車產業市場結構、廠商行為與績效之間的關係。 運用產業組織S－C－P的分析方式來研究產業的發展及績效的關係已經相當普遍，從早期的E. Mason、J. Bain到W. Shepherd、F. M. Scherer以還，此領域的研究成果相當豐富，然而多集中在實施市場經濟的西方國家，對經濟轉型的國家如東歐、中國及蘇聯等則較為少見。 本論文研究的主要目的，即在探討大陸地區汽車產業之市場結構、產業特性、產業內廠商之營運行為及彼此間的競爭型態；並進一步運用現有的資料，以實證方法對汽車產業市場結構、廠商行為及利潤之來源加以檢定，再由實證中所發掘出的資訊，評估研判大陸汽車產業發展的走向及相關問題。由於中國大陸是一個在二十世紀八十年代開始才自計畫經濟體制逐漸轉型為市場經濟體制的國家，本身仍具有計畫經濟的一些特質，產業政策的制訂及強制實施，對大陸汽車產業結構及行為均具有一定的影響力，因此本文亦透過大陸官方頒布的汽車產業政策來探討其對汽車產業的影響。 經由本文對中國大陸汽車產業的分析顯示，產業組織中市場結構（S）、行為（C）與績效（P），彼此間是處於相互影響之動態關係。而實證研究亦顯示，市場結構及行為對廠商績效的產生有密切的關聯。 在市場結構方面，大陸汽車產業的市場結構有逐漸大型化、集團化的趨勢，大型企業的市場占有率也逐年提升，市場集中度（CR4、CR8）相對提高；唯有轎車生產廠商在進入業者增多及競爭激烈之下，市場集中度有下降的現象，未來大陸汽車產業整體的市場結構有進一步緊縮並向寡頭壟斷發展的趨勢。在廠商行為方面，廠商的併購重組及價格競爭行為有助於市場結構的改善，投資研發及行銷策略等廠商行為則與市場結構及績效有相互影響。另外大陸汽車產業政策對市場結構、行為、績效則有大小不一的影響，部分產業政策目標得以實現，部分政策目標則無法完成。 在汽車產業集中度與績效之直觀性分析方面，根據1995至2003年的相關數據顯示，不論是整車生產廠商、企業集團或轎車生產廠商，其市場集中度愈高，其績效表現相對較佳（工業增加值率愈高）。 另外從實證分析的結果來看，與市場結構相關的5個變數，其中市場集中度（H）、市場占有率（MS）與績效為正相關；而市占率平方（MS²）及勞動密度（Labor）為負相關，大致上與我們的假設相符。另外資本密度（Capital）的實證結果則與假設有所不同，其中34家車廠樣本的檢定為正，而15家集團的結果為負，顯示大陸汽車產業目前並不具資本優勢，尤其是部分汽車集團的資產對績效的產生並不具正面效益。在行為變數方面，投資行為（Investment）對績效的影響為正相關，與我們的假設相同，顯示持續的投資對汽車廠商績效的產生具有重大正面的影響。時間趨勢（Time）變數也有所不同，實證顯示34家車廠的績效隨時間趨勢有逐漸下降的情形，而汽車集團的績效則隨時間趨勢呈上升現象。 正如產業組織理論所述，廠商的績效可以有多個評定考核的標準，一般均以利潤最大化或搶占最大的市占率為目標，但以大陸目前汽車產業狀況而言，本土汽車企業或大陸官方控股的汽車集團能否開發出知名的自有汽車品牌應當是重要的績效之一。根據本文的研究也發現，中國大陸目前汽車集團或大型汽車企業的短期目標是做大規模，利用規模經濟及擴大市占率來鞏固利基。但卻忽略其基本目標或長期目標應是做強企業，所謂做強企業應是運用研發成果或提升經營效率使成本降低，以提高企業的利潤率或附加價值，才算是一個成功的企業。做大企業固然不易，做強企業更是困難，但唯有持續不斷地突破、創新、研發，才能在競爭激烈的中國汽車大戰中脫穎而出，立於不敗之地。 / This thesis aims to explore the relationship between market structure, firm conduct and performance of the automobile industry in mainland China by applying the structure-conduct-performance (S-C-P) model of industrial organization. There are many outstanding studies using S-C-P approach to examine the dynamics between industrial development and performance, such as E. Mason, J. Bain, W. Sherpherd, F.M. Schere, etc. However, most of them focus on the market economies in western countries. Few of them discuss the situations in Eastern Europe, China and former Soviet Union countries that undergo economic transitions. The thesis intends to explore the characteristics of the market structure, firm conduct and economic performance in China’s automobile industry, to examine the dynamics of S-C-P in automobile industry by regression analysis, and to evaluate the development and problems of the automobile industry in mainland China. Although China has been undergoing economic transitions from a planned economy to a market economy since 1980s, not all the characteristics of the planned economy are replaced. The regulatory policy making and implementation have significant impacts on its automobile market structure and firm conduct in this industry. In this regard, the thesis intends to discuss how China’s policy influences its automobile industry. Paramount findings of this research suggest that, in China’s automobile industry, market structure, firm conduct and performance interact with one another. Regression analyses indicate that market structure, firm conduct and performance are strong associated. The market structure of the automobile industry in China characterizes large firms and groups, the growing market share rate of large-scale enterprises on a yearly basis and the rise of market concentration degree (CR4, CR8). However, the value of market concentration degree of sedan manufacturers decreases due to the increase of competitors in this market. As a result, the market structure of China’s automobile industry will evolve to oligopoly in the future. Firm conducts such as merger, reorganization and price competition help to improve the market structure. Other firm behaviors like investment, R&D, and marketing strategies influence the market structure and performance and vice versa. Moreover, China’s automobile industrial policies have various impacts on market structure, firm conduct and performance. In practice, some goals of the automobile policies are attainable, however, others are unattainable in practice. Based on the data between 1995 and 2003, a statistical analysis of concentration degree and performance in automobile industry suggest a positive relationship that higher market concentration degree results in better performance (higher industrial added-value rate), regardless whole-car manufacturers, group enterprises or sedan manufacturers. The multiple regression analyses of five variables related to market structure represents that the values of concentration degree (H) and market share (MS) alike have positive effects on the value performance whereas the values of market share rate squared (MS²) and labor density(Labor) alike have negative effects on the value of performance. These results support our hypotheses in this study. Nevertheless, the result of a relationship test for capital density（Capital） and performance is different from our hypothesis. The value of capital density of 34 car firms and the value of performance have a positive relationship, which echoes our assumption. Yet the hypothesis test for capital density of 15 groups leads to the opposite. It suggests that: capital advantage does not emerge in China’s automobile industry so far. In particular, assets of some automobile groups do not have beneficial effects on business performance. Firm conduct includes one variables: investment. Regression analysis indicates a positive relationship between investment and performance. The result is consistent with our hypothesis and concludes: constant investment contributes to automobile firm performance. Relationship testing for time and performance shows that: when the value of time increases, the value of 34 automobile firms’ performance decreases whereas the value of 15 groups’ performance increases, accordingly. The theory of Industrial organization provides multiple criteria to assess firm performance which usually aims to maximize profit or market share. In the case of current automobile industry in China, whether or not local automobile firms or state-owned enterprises achieve a successful brand building of China-made vehicles should be an important indicator of performance. This research also discovers that on one hand the automobile groups and large-scale enterprises in China embrace short-term goals to maximize firm scale and market shares so as to maximize revenues by exploiting the advantages of economy of scale, however, on the other hand, they ignore fundamental, long-term goals to be sustainable, successful and competitive corporations that invest R&D to increase business efficiency, reduce costs, and boost marginal revenue and added-value rate. Being a big firm is never easy yet being a competitive enterprise is even more difficult. Only with constant improvement in management, investment in R&D, the invention of production can an enterprise survive and succeed in the competition in China’s automobile market.

上世紀80年代中國產生了許多的變化，在經濟上採取較為開放的態度。汽車產業也在這樣的趨勢下與國外的跨國汽車企業合作，發展自己的汽車製造工業，至今中國已經成為最大的汽車製造國。為了發展汽車產業，中國透過國有企業與跨國企業合作成立許多合資公司，本文所取用的東風汽車集團與廣汽集團旗下都存在許多這樣的子公司。國家透過國有企業作為帶動產業發展的火車頭，但國有企業複雜的所有權問題牽涉中央與地方關係的運作，影響著汽車產業的發展。運用國有企業作為中介制度的同時，中央與地方關係也同時在運作，在長時間的發展下因國企所有權差異而產生的不同發展模型也逐漸變化，最終中國的汽車發展模式趨於類似。在這過程中，國家的影響實際上分做中央與地方同時進行，短期而言似乎看不到到中央的影響力，但就長期而言中央確實引導了中國汽車產業並助其發展。在理論方面，筆者以為中國汽車產業的成長長久以都是在國家資本主義的途徑上進行的，而非是發展型國家或管理型國家的模式。因為中國雖然引進市場經濟相當長的一段時間，但是實際上不管是中央還是地方的手都不曾離開過這個領域，即便是現在中國最主要的汽車生產與銷售仍舊以國有企業為主。 / China had has series transitions since 1980s years, and it had adopted open attitude at economical work. In this trend, state owner enterprises cooperated (SOEs) with foreign cross-national enterprises (CNEs) to develop self’s automotive industry. Now, China had become biggest country of automotive produce. For developing automotive industry, it established many companies by Chinese SOEs and foreign CNEs, for example Dongfeng motor group, Guangzhou automobile group. SOE like locomotive that it brings development, but it has problem of property that affect working of central-local relationship. While state utilizes SOE to be intermediary institution, central and local is continually interaction. In long time, ownership led to differently developmental model that was changed that trend to similar model. In fact, national affection is divide two parts: central and local. In short term, we difficultly observe central affection but, in long term, central affection is remake. In theoretically, I argue that Chinese automotive industrial development below to approach of state capitalism and it is not developmental state and regulatory state. China had work market economy but government, central and local, still intervenes domestic market, instead of major firm of Chinese produce and selling is SOEs.

台灣汽車市場競爭激烈，台灣市佔率前12大汽車品牌中，沒有一個品牌能夠獲得過半的市占，除了TOYOTA占了3成的市占率，其他11家品牌都只分別占了10%左右以及更少的市場份額。這說明了台灣汽車市場屬於高度異質寡占的性質，在此種性質的市場之下，消費者不只一種選擇，也有充足的資訊來比較各品牌間的差異，因此各品牌的行銷策略就變得格外重要。從各品牌市占率分析中也可以發現，台灣消費者對汽車的偏好相當具有多元性，汽車品牌商很難一網打盡，在資源有限之下，為達到最大效益，如何尋求最適合自身品牌特質的廣告、代言人等型行銷手段就成了研究課題。因此，汽車產業的廠商在行銷上，如何將資源做最適的分配，並能吸引目標消費者，便是一件極端重要的事情。 有鑑於汽車行銷策略中針對不同市場做出差異化的重要性，本研究透過聯合分析法，試圖歸納出何種汽車行銷組合最能受到何種類型消費者的偏好。首先選定汽車品牌個性、代言人類型和廣告類型三大構面作為行銷組合的構成要件，並以聯合分析法為主、單因子變異數分析以及人口統計變數為輔分析出不同類型消費者對於不同行銷組合之偏好正負與多寡。最後分析歸結出以下5點: 1. 對「群體社交集群」而言：此集群最偏好「想像的本田」、「名人周杰倫」以及「功能型廣告」三種屬性所組合而成的汽車行銷組合。 2. 對「領導自主集群」而言：此集群和群體社交集群相同，也最偏好「想像的本田」、「名人周杰倫」以及「功能性廣告」所組成的汽車行銷組合。 3. 對「流行時髦集群」而言：此集群最偏好「想像的本田」與「驚奇廣告」的組合，對於代言人類型則較不影響。 4. 對「精打細算集群」而言: 此集群最偏好「專家郭台銘」與「親情廣告」的組合，對於品牌個性則較不影響。 5. 對「重視家庭集群」而言: 此集群只重視家人給予的建議，因此並無偏好任何一組合。 / The automotive industry in Taiwan is very competitive, for the brand having the biggest market share only accounts for 30% of the whole Taiwan market, and the rest of the other top 11 car brands all have about 3%~10% market share. From the market share, we can also tell that the consumers’preferences on cars differentiate a lot among different types of consumers. Therefore, to efficiently use the budget on marketing and maximizing the effect, it is of upmost importance for automotive companies to find the endorsers and adverstisement types that best matches their own brand personalities and also attract their target audiences. In this research, we attempt to summarize what kinds of marketing combinations would attract the most attention from certain types of consumers by conjoint analysis. We first choose brand personalities, endorsement types and advertisement types as 3 major variables in the marketing mix. We then use conjoint analysis, ANOVA analysis and demographic variables to analyze the preferences of consumers with different life styles. We find the best optimal compostions as follows: 1. Social groups: Combination of imaginative Honda, the celebrity Jay Chou and functional advertising. 2. Leadership groups: Same as social groups. 3. Fashion groups: Combination of imaginative Honda and amaze advertising. 4. Scrimp-style groups: C.E.O Mr. Guo and emotional advertising. 5. Family valuing groups: No significant preference on any combination.

近年來，中華民國台灣地區國民所得不斷提高，行的品質逐漸受到重視，國內進口轎 車市場對量與質的需求均顯現出相當具有成長潛力的態勢，進口轎車代理商及貿易商 不斷引進各價位的轎車，且國產車業者亦不斷強化競爭利基以迎戰進口車，使得這個 市場的競爭日益激烈。 依分層抽樣原理，本研究以問卷訪問方式抽取台北市２０歲以上之５０６位消費者為 調查對象，期以對進口汽車之偏好態度為市場區隔的基礎，並結合潛在購買強度指標 及阻擾購車指標，藉以選擇其潛在目標市場，進而深入瞭解消費者之特性，據以研擬 開發潛在市場之有效行銷策略。 其次，本研究採用計量多元尺度法（Metric MDS）分別探討高、中、低三等價位共１ ５種品牌之進口轎車及３種品牌之國產車在市場上之競爭態勢，以作為業者引進車種 之參考。

本論文主要是從公共政策理論來分析台北市公車聯營的種種問題。 第一章 緒論，第一節討論都市與交通之特性，第二節談專業知識與公共問題之解 決，第三節談本文研究動機、範圍與方法。 第二章 公共政策與政策分析，第一節談公共政策意涵，第二節介紹政策制定理論 與模型，第三節介紹政策執行理論與模型，第四節談政策分析。 第三章 台北市公車車施聯營前之演變與政策內容，第一節談台北市公共汽車之沿 革，第二節談公車開放民營問題面面觀，第三節談台北市公車聯營籌劃始末，第四 節介紹公車聯營政策內容。 第四章 台北市公車實施聯營後問題之探討，第一節談聯營車票問題，第二節談聯 營組織問題，第三節談路線宣導、脫班與營收分配問題，第四節談聯營公車營運狀 況與票會調整問題，第五節談一人服務車與服務態度問題。 第五章 公共政策分析台北市公車聯營政策制定與執行，第一節是台北市公車聯營 決策之分析，第二節台北市公車聯營執行之探討，第三節台北市公車聯營之檢討。 第六章 結論，第一節台北市公車聯營政策之評估，第二節台北市公車聯營展望， 第三節公車聯營問題幾個觀念之探討。 #2810421 #2810421

近幾年來由於經濟快速發展，行銷觀念的導入和大眾傳播媒體的普遍，使各廠商無不 重視廣告的應用，希望能藉著它來增加銷售量，提高績效，因此探討其效果的文獻頗 多，但大部份都偏重於消費品，至於類似工業品的汽車輪胎，則由於產品是屬於中間 性財貨，必須經由再加工、運用的過程才能滿足最終消費者的需求，基於此使的以往 廣告在汽車輪胎業的行銷組合中不受到重視。但如果汽車輪胎業運用廣告，對其銷售 量是否有幫助？關於這點國外學者會對工業品的廣告效果進行有關的研究，故在第二 章中引述某些外國學者之研究結果，列舉出訂定廣告預算之方法，影響廣告預算之方 法，影響廣告支出的要素等，產描述廣告對人員推銷、品牌印象和銷售量的影響；第 三、四章則以國內之輪胎業作為探討的對象，希望對輪胎業之廣告效果有一粗淺的了 解。

前言 第一章 鐵路、公路交通政策、組織機構暨發展情況。 第二章 鐵路、公路交通運輸在其整個國民經濟發展中的作用。 第三章 鐵路、公路運輸能力之評析。 第四章 機車（火車頭）車輛工業與汽車工業。 第五章 經濟面的探討與評析。 第六章 鐵路、公路建設與國父孫中山先生實業計劃中鐵路、公路建設計劃之比較。 第七章 鐵路、公路建設未來的發展趨勢。 第八章 結論

論文摘要： 汽車為現代人不可或缺之交通工具，汽車責任保險關乎社會大眾權益甚巨，不僅僅是保險人與被保險人兩者之間保險契約之關係，尚且關乎汽車意外事故受害第三人之權利，而每個人都有可能成為汽車意外事故之受害第三人。故保障受害第三人之權益即是保障多數人之權益。為使受害第三人之權益能獲得充分周全之保障，於汽車責任保險之中，創立受害第三人直接請求權制度，實不失為一良法。然而於我國無論是強制汽車責任保險受害第三人直接請求權制度抑或是任意汽車責任保險受害第三人直接請求權制度，均存有若干疑義及缺失，因而引發筆者研究動機。本文之研究方法為(1)、比較法研究及(2)、邏輯架構分析法。將全文分成七章予以論述，主要之研究內容為，以責任保險之意義、思潮及功能為開端，進而論述責任被保險人之保險給付請求權及受害第三人之直接請求權並闡述責任被保險人、責任保險人與受害第三人三者彼此之關係及保險給付請求權與直接請求權競合之處理，並進一步檢視我國現行關於受害第三人直接請求權法令規範之缺失，參酌外國立法例及學說，提出改進建議，期能使我國之受害第三人直接請求權制度，邏輯趨於圓滿一致，以杜絕適用疑義，廣增大眾福祉。 / Abstract： An automobile has become a necessary transportation vehicle for modern people. The automobile liability insurance plays an important role on everyone’s rights in our society. The insurance contract doesn’t only signify the relationship between an insurer and the insured , but also refers to the injured third party’s rights during the automobile accident. Because everyone may become a possible automobile accident injured third party, to protect the injured third party’s right means to protect everybody’s citizenship. In order to preserve the injured third party’s right exactly and sufficiently, it is a good method to establish the legislation system empowering the injured third party possessing the authority to exert the automobile liability. However, as far as the injured third party’s action is concerned, there are flaws and imperfection in the system of compulsory automobile liability insurance and optional automobile liability insurance in our country. That is the motivation of this study and the reason why the author draws this paper. The research methods of this paper are the comparative method and the logic framework analysis method. This paper is consisted of seven chapters. The major content of this paper begins with the significance, development and function of the liability insurance. Then, this paper will discuss the right of the liability insured’s payment claim and the injured third party’s direct action, analyze the relationship among the liability insurer, the liability insured and the injured third party, and exposit how to handle the conflict between the right of the liability insured’s payment claim and the injured third party’s direct action. Furthermore, it is important to inspect the imperfection of the current laws and regulations of the injured third party’s direct action in Taiwan. After considering the spirits of the foreign country’s laws, the researcher will pose and recommend the improving methods for the law system of the injured third party’ direct action in our country. The suggestions try to make the law system more coherent and more logical, to eradicate the mess situation in practice, and to fortify the public welfare.

自1999年以來，台灣汽車車體損失險的投保率下降且損失率逐年上升，與強制第三責任險損失率逐年下降形成強烈對比，理論上若按個人風險程度計收保費，吸引價格認同的被保險人加入並對高風險者加費，則可提高投保率並且確保損失維持在合理範圍內。基於上述背景，本文採用國內某產險公司1999至2002年汽車車體損失保險資料為依據，探討過去保費收入與未來賠款支出的關係，在滿足不偏性的要求下，尋求降低預測誤差變異數的方法。 研究結果顯示：車體損失險存在保險補貼。以最小誤差估計法計算的新費率，可以改善收支不平衡的現象，但對於應該減費的低風險保戶，以及應該加費的高高風險保戶，以類神經網路推計的加減費系統具有較大加減幅度，因此更能有效的區分高低風險群組，降低不同危險群組間的補貼現象，並在跨年度的資料中具有較小的誤差變異。 / In the past five years, the insured rate of Automobile Material Damage Insurance (AMDI) has been declined but the loss ratio is climbing, in contrast to the decreasing trend in the loss ratio of the compulsory automobile liability insurance. By charging corresponding premium based on individual risks, we could attract low risk entrant and reflect the highly risk costs. The loss ratio can thus be modified to a reasonable level. To further illustrate the concept, we aim to take the AMDI to study the most efficient estimator of the future claim. Because the relationship of loss experience (input) and future claim estimation (output) is similar to the human brain performs. We can analyze the relation by minimum bias procedure and artificial neural network, reducing error with overall rate level could go through with minimum error of classes or individual, demonstrated using policy year 1999 to 2002 data. According to the thesis, cross subsidization exists in Automobile Material Damage Insurance. The new rate produced by minimum bias estimate can alleviate the unbalance between the premium and loss. However the neural network classification rating can allocate those premiums more fairly, where ‘fairly’ means that higher premiums are paid by those insured with greater risk of loss and vice-versa. Also, it is the more efficient than the minimum bias estimator in the panel data.

由汽車分期付款買賣坊間車商之定型化契約條款出發，依民法、消保法檢討相關約款之合理、正當性。