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  • About
  • The Global ETD Search service is a free service for researchers to find electronic theses and dissertations. This service is provided by the Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations.
    Our metadata is collected from universities around the world. If you manage a university/consortium/country archive and want to be added, details can be found on the NDLTD website.
191

企業年金資產負債管理之研究 / ASSET-LIABILITY MANAGEMENT OF THE PENSION

張菊枝, Chang, Chu Chih Unknown Date (has links)
退休基金面臨的風險來自資產與負債兩方面,負債的風險為實際給付大於預期給付的不確定性,資產面的風險為實際價值小於預期價值的不確定性。造成這兩個風險的因素有很多,其中利率風險是引起資產與負債不確定性的重要因素。因為非預期的利率變動會使資產與負債價值發生變動,而影響退休基金的給付能力。如果資產與負債之間能維持一適當關係,退休基金則可免於利率變動所帶來的不利益。本研究以存續期間作為退休基金資產負債管理的方法,債券為投資工具進行退休基金免疫策略的模擬,結果發現:在資產與負債名目現金流量不受利率變動影響的假設下,不論市場利率如何變動,在傳統的免疫策略下,投資組合必能創造出預期的報酬率;但當上述假設不存在時,免疫狀態將不復存在。為防止退休基金給付能力不足,除應每年確實進行精算評估外,應於市場利率、投資報酬以及薪資上漲率發生變動後,立刻衡量資產與負債現金流量受此變動所引起的改變,並計算變動後資產與負債現值的差額,若發現資產現值小於負債現值時,基金管理人可買賣期貨以延長或縮短投資組合的平均存續期間,促使資產與負債對利率之敏感性不同,好讓投資組合能於利率變動後自動補足此差額。或甚於平均存續期間的計算公式中,將此種變動狀況考慮進去,使免疫策略於資產與負債的名目現金流量因利率變動而改變時仍能發揮免疫效果。
192

跨代模型之進口限額政策分析 / The Quota policy with overlapping generation model

鄭美幸, Chen, Meei Shing Unknown Date (has links)
本文結合H-O模型與Blanchard(1985)的跨代模型來分析一小型經濟體系實 施永久性進口限額政策之後,對經濟體系中的各個變數之影響。結果發現 在無資本累積模型下,影響經常帳的效果有所得效果與財富效果。而在有 資本累積模型下,影響經常帳的效果則有資產替代效果。
193

專屬資產種類對忠誠度與多重通路購物行為模式之影響 / The study of the impact of specific assets to loyalty and multi-channel environment

楊育華, Yang, Yu Hua Unknown Date (has links)
許多學者紛紛提出專屬資產對品牌忠誠度的影響,本研究主要想探討不同的專屬資產種對品牌忠誠度的影響。其中將專屬資產種類分為:特有使用知識專屬資產;特有實體設備、軟體或服務專屬資產;忠誠客戶優惠專屬資產;無形專屬資產;心理層面認同專屬資產;特有無形社會壓力專屬資產。 隨著網路普及,網路也漸漸改變我們的購物模式。近年來許多廠商紛紛採用多重通路的模式以增加其效益,而消費者也依本身偏好利用不同通路進行產品資訊蒐集及交易等行為。因此本研究的另一主軸為專屬資產種類將如何影響消費者對品牌之官方網站的購物態度及購物意願,又此對官方網站的購物態度將如何影響消費者之多重通路購物意願。本研究以百貨公司專櫃化妝品為例,探討專櫃品牌和消費者所建立的專屬資產種類會如何影響消費者之品牌忠誠度及對官方網站的購物態度、購物意願,以及對官方網站的購物態度又會如何影響其在百貨專櫃及在官方網站的購物意願。 研究結果發現,特有使用知識專屬資產、特有實體設備、軟體或服務專屬資產、忠誠客戶優惠專屬資產、無形專屬資產、心理層面認同專屬資產都和品牌忠誠度呈正相關,唯特有的無形社會壓力專屬資產對品牌忠誠度無顯著相關。而其中僅忠誠客戶優惠專屬資產對官方網站的購買意願呈負相關。對官方網站的購物態度則和在官網蒐集資訊在專櫃購買、在專櫃試用在官網購買、在官網蒐集資訊在官網購買皆呈現正相關,表示對官網的購物態度愈正面,愈可能透過官網進行資訊蒐集或購買之行為。
194

金融資產證券化之創始機構破產隔離法制-以真實買賣原則為中心 / The bankruptcy remote of originator in financial asset securitization- Focus on true sale

李宗翰 Unknown Date (has links)
資產證券化之架構中,為避免創始機構破產,波及資產證券化商品之投資人,對創始機構之破產隔離(Bankruptcy Remoteness)即十分重要。在美國法上,有三種情形,會使創始機構所讓與之金融資產,可能受到創始機構破產風險(bankruptcy risk)之影響。第一,創始機構與SPV有所關連,進而造成該金融資產與創始機構之資產實質合併(Substantive Consolidation)。第二,金融資產之移轉被認定屬於虛偽移轉(fraudulent conveyance)。第三,創始機構移轉於特殊目的個體之資產,未被認定為真實買賣(True Sale),而僅為擔保(Secured Loan)。據此,為了達成破產隔離,金融資產之交易必須符合真實買賣,SPV之資產與負債不可與創始機構合併,金融資產之移轉非虛偽移轉。 就實質合併原則之具體操作上,有些美國法院採取三階段負擔移轉測試。在此測試下,主張實質合併者須證明兩要件:(1)數個體屬於實質上同一而應被合併。(2)為避免某些損害或實現某些利益,實質合併是必須的。前者美國法上提出七項考量因素:(1)在分離與辨認每一法律主體之個別資產與負債時,所生之困難度。(2)合併財務報表是否存在。(3) 位於同一處所之合併利益。(4)是否各法律主體之資產與商業功能已被混合。(5) 於數個公司主體間,其利益與所有權同一。(6)母公司與集團公司間就貸款存在相互保證。(7) 資產之移轉未遵守公司組織形式。後者則是法院需確保合併所生之利益足以抵銷合併所生之不利益。 若此兩要件可被證明,將推定債權人並非僅信賴數個體之一之信用。此時該舉證責任將移轉於目標債權人。目標債權人須證明:(1)其僅信賴數個應被合併之一之信用。(2)其將因實質合併而受損害。若目標債權人可以證明此兩項要件,則只有在實質合併之利益顯著大於損害時,破產法院才可發佈實質合併命令。 本條例限制創始機構與特殊目的個體間為關係企業。然而,架構式融資在本質上,即屬創始機構所發動主導之交易流程,於美國金融資產證券化之發展經驗,亦准許創始機構為特殊目的公司之母公司。據此,本條例之限制,有悖於交易常態,並增加不必要之交易成本與法令管制之風險,故應刪除本條例第54條第1項及第2項、第73條第4項,並引進實質合併原則。 就真實買賣判斷原則,美國法上主要以當事人之意圖、資產損失之歸屬、資產利益之歸屬、基礎資產相關服務責任之歸屬,作為判斷標準。就會計面向而言,一般公認會計原則,究竟如何區分融資擔保行為與買賣行為,實值得作為真實買賣之判斷,美國法院實務亦以相關交易之會計判斷,作為考量因素之一。我國財務會計準則第33號公報對於金融資產之除列,主要採取控制權之觀點,是否喪失控制權,必需同時考量移轉人及受讓人之情況等綜合判斷。法院於真實賣賣判斷中,在討論資產損失與利益之歸屬時,能將會計界有關除列之判斷帶入,判決理由將更為堅強。 為了防範金融資產之交易被認定為擔保交易,美國資產證券化產業,努力推動可取代法院判斷真實買賣原則之法案,並在德拉瓦州、俄亥俄州、德州、阿拉巴州等四個州成功推動針對資產證券化之資產移轉議題,制定安全港條款,即透過證券化文件之形式聲明,取代真實買賣原則之實質判斷。真實買賣原則與安全港條款,立場不同,然均有可供操作之判斷標準,我國應擇一引進,以利法院處理具體個案。 在我國法下,創始機構之資力發生問題時,創始機構之債權人,有兩大權利可為主張:第一,可主張金融資產出售行為與移轉行為,屬通謀虛偽意思表示而無效;第二,可主張撤銷權,即以金融資產出售行為與移轉行為,屬詐害債權之行為而撤銷之,並依民法第767條之規定,請求返還創始機構所移轉之金融資產。 因信託法第6條第1項及第2項之撤銷權,在金融資產證券化中有所適用。如此規定,造成創始機構之債權人,相較於一般交易之債權人,更容易主張撤銷權,而使金融資產證券化之廣大投資人反而面臨比一般交易人更大之投資風險。而特殊目的信託,既然為商事信託、集團信託,立法意旨上,應較一般民事信託,更著重於受益人之保護;且於特殊目的個體為公司型態時,本條例第83條第3項之規定,創始機構辦理資產移轉,並依資產證券化計畫取得讓與資產之對價者,推定為民法第244條第2項所定之有償行為,是創始機構之債權人原則上須符合雙重惡意要件,始可行使撤銷權。然創始機構之債權人,於特殊目的個體為信託時,卻無須符合雙重惡意要件。因特殊目的個體之型態不同,卻有不同之撤銷權要件,其區分之正當性令人存疑。是本條例第53條應修正為:「本條例第53條之規定,信託法第6條,於特殊目的信託,不適用之。」始與特殊目的個體之性質與金融資產證券化之立法目的相符。
195

亞洲主要機場的績效比較研究-資料包絡法的分析 / Efficiency evaluation of major airports in Asia-data envelopment analysis

賴淑容, Lai, Shu Jung Unknown Date (has links)
This study adopt input orientation data envelopment Analysis approaches to evaluate the operational efficiency for major international airports in terms of the top 20 ranking by total passengers handling in Asia region in 2008. Unlike the most the other airport literature researches only using the one-stage DEA to measure the efficiency, in this study, two-stage, the extension of DEA, adding the concept of the intermediates product, separate the airport operation into airport capital side and airport capability side, is applied to evaluate the two-side efficiency of each airport under the assumption of constant returns to scale, variable returns to scale, scale efficiency and super efficiency model by employing four inputs, four intermediate products and two outputs. The result of this study shows that the China Shenzhen Baoan airport is the best airport in overall technical efficiency in different stages. It indicates that the operation of small size airports (category by the passengers handling) are run more efficiency than the large one. In addition, by two-stage DEA analysis, the airport capital usage is better than in capacity utilization. It found that the China Beijing Capital airport is good in airport infrastructure usage but the capacity utilization is not enough. Finally, the number of increasing return scale airports are more than the decreasing return scale airports among Asia region (e.g. Taiwan Taoyuan airport), therefore, the expansions of facility and capacity in those increasing return scale airports are worthy to invest to promote the operational efficiency and its competitiveness.
196

企業文化與知識管理類型對企業智慧資本構成之關聯性研究

賴冠宇 Unknown Date (has links)
透過知識管理幫助智慧資本之衡量、管理已成為企業不容忽略的管理議題。學者專家建議良好的企業文化是成功推行知識管理的關鍵要素,而企業文化也顯著影響組織效能。因此,企業文化、知識管理、智慧資本與企業績效之關係即為重要的實證議題。本論文主要以國內上市櫃公司為研究對象,採用問卷調查方式,以較完整的架構探討企業文化類型、知識管理類型、智慧資本與財務績效相互間的關聯性。   本研究發現企業文化與知識管理間存在顯著的關聯性,且企業文化類型與知識管理類型,分別對智慧資本各構面及其組成要素的重要程度有顯著的影響。主要實證結果顯示企業文化類型越強烈鮮明,越重視人力資源發展、創新與市場競爭的企業,則知識管理程度相對的越高,且同時重視資訊科技運用與鼓勵組織內成員間知識的交流和衝擊。高效率支持型企業文化相較於低創新官僚型企業文化,更重視人力資本、創新資本以及流程資本組成要素。   彈性式高度知識管理類型相較於其他知識管理類型,在員工專業與自主、創新管理、流程成果以及顧客滿意與忠誠等資本智慧資本組成要素上的重視程度上明顯較高。彈性式高度知識管理類型相較於控制式低度知識管理類型,在人力資本、創新資本、流程資本之各項組成要素以及顧客投資與成果等顧客資本組成要素等的重視程度上明顯較高。人性化中度知識管理類型相較於控制式低度知識管理類型,在員工專業與自主等人力資本組成要素與創新資本各項組成要素的重視程度上明顯較高。   研究結果亦顯示企業文化及人力資本、創新資本均與財務績效有顯著的關聯性。本研究結果所發現企業文化、知識管理、智慧資本以及財務績效四者間的關係,隱喻企業文化是企業推行知識管理及提昇經營效能的關鍵,亦即企業在推行知識管理前應先檢視本身的企業文化。此外,揭露具認知重要性之智慧資本各構面衡量指標似有助於傳遞企業隱藏價值給投資人。 / Measuring and managing intellectual capital through knowledge management (KM) has been perceived the most important issue in knowledge-intensive companies. It has been suggested that a supportive corporate culture cornerstones not only a successful implementation of KM system but also the effectiveness of an organization. It is essential therefore to enhance our knowledge in interrelationships among corporate culture, KM, intellectual capital and operating performance. Using a sample of firms listed in TSE and OTC and a questionnaire as research tool, this thesis explores the typologies of corporate culture and KM, and their impacts on intellectual capital and financial performance.   The empirical evidence indicates that the attributes of corporate culture are significantly associated with the attributes of KM activities. Both corporate culture and KM shed significant impacts on cognitive importance of intellectual capitals. Firms with distinct corporate culture, placing more foci on human resource development, innovation and market competition tend to have more intensive knowledge management activities, information technology utilization, and exchange and lash of knowledge between the members of the organization. Compared to firms with low innovative-bureaucratic culture, firms with high effective-supportive culture concentrate more on all aspects related to human capital and innovation capital.   Compared to other firms in the sample, firms with high flexibility-high degree of knowledge management activities focus more on human capital, innovation capital, and process capital. Compared to firms with high control-low degree knowledge management activities, companies characterized with humanistic-medium degree knowledge management activities emphasize more on innovation capital.   The findings also show that both corporate culture attributes and components of human capital and innovation capital are significantly associated with financial performance. The results thus suggest that corporate culture is important to company success in implementing knowledge management system and business performance. It implies that companies may need to nurture a more supportive corporate culture prior to implementing a knowledge management system. The intellectual capital indicators suggested in the study may also be helpful in disclosing the hidden value of the firm to their investors.
197

投資型人身保險商品之評價與風險管理之研究

黃國祥 Unknown Date (has links)
金融機構之降息政策與全球經濟環境之不確定性,大幅增加人壽保險人之經營風險,以鄰國日本人壽保險為例,自1996年日產生命發生財務危機開始,已有5家保險公司宣佈倒閉或破產,6家進行合併,其餘14家也面臨嚴重之財務壓力,為避免系統風險造成台灣人壽保險產業之破產危機,如何創新保險商品及研擬風險管理成為重要之議題。   人壽保險公司之負債資產比極高,因此公司之財務健全與投保人之權益息息相關,利率變動將顯著影響公司獲利能力,因此利率風險管理實為當務之急。投資型商品之開發為人壽保險產業因應利率風險之新興策略,早期為人壽保險與共同基金結合,或與銀行定存結合,近來發展出與指數型金融商品連結之保本型人壽保險。因為商品之複雜度,評價將成為重要之課題,投資型保險基於被保險人參與財務風險程度之大小差異,風險管理與傳統型保險有所差別。   本研究首先探討目前人壽保險市場之現況,詳細定義投資型人壽保險,探討發展過程,並實際進行試算與評價分析,列舉說明精算之規範,資產負債管理、風險資本額制度下之定位及外匯等問題,以個案討論台灣及中國大陸市場之投資型商品,並提出現況之建議。 / Due to the monetary policy in the banking sector and the global economic uncertainty, the solvency issue for the life insurer becomes crucial. In Japan life insurance market, five insurers have declared their bankruptcy since 1996, six insurers had been merged, and the others have suffered serious financial press. Preventing the ruin crisis of life insurers and strengthen their financial abilities through innovation products and risk management techniques in Taiwan have become an important issue for the management.   Owing to the high leverage ratio in life insurer's capital structure, the reserve adequacy plays a vital role in shielding the policyholder's rights. Since the uncertainty of the interest rate affects the reserve and surplus of the insurer, asset-liability risk management becomes an important subject. Adding the investment-linked life insurance policies in the insurer's liability portfolio is an innovative strategy in managing the low interest risk. Combining with the mutual fund or the bank certificates in early stage has advanced to integrate with the equity indexed products. The investment-linked products vary from the traditional ones allowing the participation in the financial risks. Owing to the complexity of its design, the valuation becomes essential.   This study analyzes investment-linked life insurance policies and their historical evolutions. The financial valuation processes are illustrated explicitly. The regulations in the reserve valuation, the asset-liability management, the connection with risk-based capital (RBC) and the related hedging issues are also explored. Finally, the product designs and managerial issues in operating the investment-linked life insurance policies in Taiwan and Mainland China are discussed.
198

B2B專屬資產投資對企業自發性表現行為之研究:關係利益為前置變數

陳慧怡, Chen, Huei Yi Unknown Date (has links)
在日益競爭的商業環境下,企業看待企業客戶的觀點,由傳統競爭觀點轉變為,有越來越多企業選擇與企業客戶建立夥伴關係,Bidault et al.(1998)的研究指出高科技廠商在新產品開發過程中,會協同其供應商共同參與研發設計過程,期望藉此能發揮一加一大於二的綜效效果,為企業帶來更好的績效表現。 Sasser(1990)指出若企業能提高5%的顧客維持率,利潤將可望提高25%~85%,既有的顧客能藉由與企業重複交易與為企業宣傳來吸引新顧客,使企業獲取更好的利潤,因此本研究沿用此一概念,採取量化衡量方式,以統計軟體SPSS17.0版本進行資料分析,試圖探討企業之間如何產生自發性忠誠行為,引用B2C關係行銷的概念於B2B交易情境中討論,將企業客戶視為顧客,以關係利益為前置變數,分別檢驗關係利益三大構面-信心利益、社會利益與特殊對待利益,與企業專屬資產投資的關係與影響企業專屬資產投資的程度,再以專屬資產投資七大分類-實體專屬資產、人力資源專屬資產、特定專屬資產、無形專屬資產、心理層面認同專屬資產、忠誠客戶優惠專屬資產、區位專屬資產,做為衡量企業專屬資產投資程度的指標,並以此做為中介變數,檢驗企業專屬資產投資是否會引發企業具有忠誠行為表現。 經由實證研究顯示,信心利益與企業專屬資產投資並無明顯的正向因果關係,社會利益與特殊對待利益皆與企業專屬資產投資呈現正向因果關係,企業專屬資產投資也對企業自發性忠誠行為表現具有正向影響力,表示企業在交易過程中,如能與企業客戶互動密切並發展出朋友般的關係、給予企業客戶優惠的利益、提供較低的價格、給予折扣等,都能誘發企業客戶進行專屬資產投資,而當企業客戶進行越多的專屬於特定企業的資產投資,則越能對該企業展現忠誠行為,表現在願意再度與企業交易或成為企業的促銷者,宣傳企業的優秀表現於其它廠商,帶給企業更好的績效表現。 本研究從關係行銷的觀點出發,希望能提供企業一些管理上的建議,企業可著重於與企業客戶維持長期的交易,視企業客戶為企業內部顧客,與企業客戶發展出夥伴關係,強化企業客戶的忠誠度,提升企業營運的利潤,來抗衡現今動態的商業競爭環境。 / Nowadays with the business environment becoming much more competitive, in order to build a solid partnership with clients, corporations will try to form specific assets to raise clients’ potential costs of switching associates. The purpose of this research is to build a B2B context about specific assets investment sales and to discuss the enterprise voluntary performance behavior. This research employs the theory of transaction cost economics as fundamental bases to classify specific assets investment into seven major categoriesas following: physical specific asset, human specific asset, idiosyncratic, intangible, psychological identification, loyalty client, and territorial. The research shows specific assets investment has a positive significant impact on loyalty behavior. Besides,this research also test whteher relational benefits have positive effect on specific assets investment, and the result also shows that relational benefits has a positive significant impact on specific assets investment. Lastly, the context provides corporations with management suggestions and academic implication.
199

餐飲業家庭市場行銷 台灣麥當勞個案探討 / Family marketing in quick service restaurant business: the case of McDonald's Taiwan

李俞頻 Unknown Date (has links)
自1955年Ray Kroc創立麥當勞以來,以經營家庭市場為麥當勞的基礎,並且藉由與家庭顧客的互動培養長期牢固的忠誠度,台灣麥當勞自1984年成立以來,深耕台灣家庭市場,創下許多餐飲業的首創,不但打下市佔率,也打下消費者心佔率,成為父母及小孩的第一選擇。 由於麥當勞全球迅速擴張導致單店營業獲利下降,因此麥當勞重新思考品牌重整,將品牌溝通重心轉向年輕族群,全球品牌再造計畫”我就喜歡”於2003年底全球同步展開,顧客群重心的調整加上大環境反速食的浪潮,考驗對家庭市場的經營方式及應變能力。 本研究以實務個案分析,採用質化研究,針對台灣麥當勞高階主管經營家庭市場經驗訪談,輔以理論之架構,予以逐項分析比較及歸納。家庭市場的交換價值影響母品牌的資產,母品牌的經營策略改變也影響家庭市場長久建立的資產,其研究目的有二:第一、期了解麥當勞運用家庭市場行銷方案(Family Program),建立家庭市場地位並且將資產累積回饋母品牌。第二、研究麥當勞品牌策略轉向影響到經營多年的家庭市場,麥當勞該採取的因應策略。 麥當勞在強化家庭市場行銷活動4C的同時,也增加了母品牌強化4C的機會,轉嫁成為母品牌的資產;當策略焦點轉移,資源重新配置,品牌的4C將不完全是由家庭市場行銷活動4C來建立或維繫,也影響到家庭市場行銷活動傳遞產品及服務本身的4C,因此回頭檢視家庭市場行銷活動的4C時,發現家庭市場行銷活動4C出現一些缺口,而這些缺口,反而又回頭影響了母品牌的4C。 因此,在思考品牌的4C時必須採取根本解,而非症狀解,此外,當核心能力作焦點轉移時,需要重新思考或調整原有核心能力的續航力及基盤事業,最後,如何運用競爭優勢與社會利益共享,創造社會影響力,發揮最大共存效益。 / Since Ray Kroc built up McDonald’s in 1955, Family has been the core foundation of McDonald’s business. McDonald’s has established true loyalty with family customers by engaging and interacting with them at every touch point. McDonald’s Taiwan was established in 1984. Since then, it has been cultivating the family market to become the first choice of parents and kids. It occupies not only the top position of market share but also mindshare. Because of the rapid expansion of McDonald’s business worldwide, McDonald’s is confronting the first ever decrease of unit store profit. In reaction to this downturn, McDonald’s decided to slow expansion speed and take a step back to re-think and re-position its’ brand. McDonald’s launched the “i’m lovin’ it” brand campaign globally. Their brand communication focus shifted to Young Adults. Because of this shift and the growing anti-fast food trend, McDonald’s family marketing has faced its biggest challenge ever. This case study adopted qualitative research, interviewed top management in McDonald’s Taiwan and supported by theoretical structure to analyze this case. The exchanging value of family market influenced the equity of mother brand. Changing the position of the mother brand has also affected the value delivery of family market. The main objectives of this thesis are firstly to understand how McDonald’s has utilized family marketing to build equity of family market and be beneficial to the mother brand. Secondly, how the change of mother brand positioning affected the equity of family marketing building. Finally, what strategies McDonald’s should use to tackle these critical issues. While McDonald’s enhanced the 4C value of family marketing, it also added the 4C value of mother brand. 4C value of family market would transfer and become the equity of mother brand. However, when the brand focus changed, corporate had to re-allocate resources. At this point, the 4C value of mother brand was not totally constituted by 4C value of family market. That is to say, family marketing shared less resources and delivered less 4C value to family market. The incomplete 4C value of family marketing will go back to affect the 4C value of mother brand in the end. To manage a brand, marketers should resolve the root causes instead of just alleviating the symptoms. To deal with root causes, can corporate leave the side effects away. Besides, when corporate shifts the core competence to another area, they should re-consider resource allocation and migrate the core competence to better fit the new challenges. It is to secure the foundation of the business and sustainability of the corporation. Last but not the least, to incorporate social possibilities in corporate strategies will create the competitive advantage and have a positive impact on our society. Holding a shared vision with the society, working as a team with other partners, and elaborating the best synergy of human kind - that is how corporate social responsibilities will work in the future.
200

擔保房貸憑證(CMOs)評價---以BGM利率模型為例 / Pricing of the Collateralized Mortgage Obligations(CMOs)--Based on the Interest Rate Model of BGM

張繼文, Chi-Wen Chang Unknown Date (has links)
擔保房貸憑證(CMOs)是衍生自不動產抵押證券(MBS)的證券化商品,透過分券的特殊設計,藉此降低MBS商品的提前清償風險,也增加市場投資人的選擇彈性。但特殊的設計同時也提高了評價上的困難度,由於此產品的提前清償狀況會依分券性質與標的抵押貸款借款人的償還情形而有所不同,為了準確掌握CMOs商品的現金流量,必須採用較為充分的貸款資料與提前清償模型來推估提前清償機率。本文採用競爭風險模型來做為提前清償模型,透過較多變數的選擇方式,模擬出較為精確的提前清償機率路徑。 此外,BGM利率模型是透過將利率間斷化,捕捉市場上可觀察到的利率,同時也可提供在不同時點下的即期利率,可藉此推算出不同時點下的分券價格,故採用BGM來做為本文的利率模型。

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