本論文探討的「對外經濟戰略」是政府在國家發展層次、以國家發展作為全盤考量的對外政策準則，是從對外交涉層面的經濟取向，對其政策形成之分析與研究。對外經濟戰略作為國家對外事務交涉的準則，影響國家的外交與對外經貿發展，因此從對外經濟戰略的研究，將有助於理解國家外交的思維，並可成為預測國家對外經貿合作方向的參考。俄羅斯在普欽總統強勢作為的領導之下，使得其國家從經濟蕭條、政局不穩定與外交發展受侷限等問題中，得以蛻變成為重新崛起的大國。而中國是俄羅斯重要的鄰國之一，從經濟面向的分析觀察，中國更是國際上重要的新興市場，從政治面向觀察，中國亦是國際上逐漸擴展影響力的大國；因此筆者研究俄羅斯的對外經濟戰略，是以普欽總統時期作為分析的時間範疇，而以中國作為分析的目標國。 俄羅斯對於與中國進行的政經合作，是以其國家利益為考量，而其國家利益是以國內經濟發展為原則，並擴展國家在亞太地區的勢力，以實現普欽的東西方平衡外交策略；而俄羅斯對中國的經貿發展事務上，是有著多重因素考量，筆者從俄羅斯亞太政策、全球化影響、俄羅斯能源優勢與俄羅斯遠東地區發展等戰略思維，歸納成系統性政策思維的整理與論述，並將以上綜合陳述，作為解讀俄羅斯對中國的經濟戰略。 / In this thesis, the author discuses the “foreign economic strategy”, which tells the principles of foreign strategy that a government takes into consideration in state development. It focuses on the aspect of economy in diplomatic level, analyzing how the policy is formed. Being the principle of international affairs, foreign economic strategy effects the development of diplomacy and international business. Thus, this study helps to comprehend the context of state diplomacy and anticipates the way of international trade. Under the strong leadership of President Putin, Russia, originally a hybrid of economic depression, political unrest and diplomatic plight, turns into a great power. China, an important neighbor of Russia, is not only a rising market in international business, but a great power in international politics; thus this thesis researches Russia’s economic strategy, and focus on China’s aspect during Putin’s era. Russia, takes its national interests into consideration, cooperate with China in economic and political affairs. Its national interests mainly focus on economic development and enlargement of its influence in Asia-Pacific region, realizing Putin’s diplomatic strategy to balance the east and west. Therefore, there are multiple factors in Russo-China international trade. The author analyzes the Russia’s Asia-Pacific strategy, the effect of globalization, Russia’s energy superiority and Russia’s Far-eastern development strategy, summarizing Russia’s economic strategy. Therefore, this study shows Russia’s strategic thought toward China in international economic and political affairs.

「國家安全戰略」是美國國家政策的核心，在冷戰時期，面對蘇聯及其共產集團對美國安全的威脅，美國的「國家安全戰略」的基本態勢是「圍堵加嚇阻」。冷戰結束後，美國的國家安全進入一個調整的時期。一方面，冷戰在全球層面的終結及其在區域安全引起的反應，動搖著40年來支撐美國「國家安全戰略」的基本原則，美國必須用新的理念來指導其國家安全；另一方面，全球化的影響及911恐怖攻擊事件的發展也給美國帶來了新的挑戰。 2001年911恐怖攻擊事件發生之前，美國國安機構就已開始研究在新環境下的國家安全戰略。從波斯灣戰爭及柯索沃危機，或是北約東擴，在在顯示出美國已將戰略重點放在遏制地區性挑戰及國際體系多極化的形成上。911恐怖攻擊事件發生之後，小布希政府重新審視國際環境，強調本土防禦的安全政策。美國調整全球戰略的根本出發點是加強世界上的領導地位，反恐及安全則是美國國家安全戰略的首要目標。 由於911事件造成美國國內保守主義情緒的上升，促使小布希的安全觀趨向更保守方向發展，並提出以「政權更替」、「先制攻擊」、「單邊主義」及「絕對安全」等戰略為要點的「布希主義」(the Bush Doctrine)，而「伊拉克戰爭」正是小布希政府貫徹上述安全戰略的試驗。然而，當美軍於2003年3月以海珊政權構成大規模毀滅性武器威脅為由出兵伊拉克，在歷經徹底搜索上述武器未果後，才發現小布希政府所聲稱之伊拉克威脅似為空穴來風，而伊拉克戰爭之正當性遭受到嚴厲抨擊。 2003年以前，國際各國普遍都還十分信任美國所作所為，然而，就在小布希政府不顧國際社會甚至盟友的反對，採取預防性戰爭的先制戰略的軍事行動，出兵攻擊伊拉克，美國單邊作為的反恐戰略證明不得人心，整個中東地區的局勢動盪，伊拉克的重建過程障礙重重，國際範圍內的恐怖主義愈加猖獗，大規模殺傷性武器的擴散並未獲得有效抑制，加上美軍虐俘事件曝光等，使得美國國際地位嚴重受損。 本論文主要探討小布希政府時期美國國家安全戰略的發展，特別是在美國遭逢911恐怖攻擊事件後，面對國家安全情勢的巨變，安全威脅的增加，以及不確定因素提高而所提出的安全戰略的調整特點，並以伊拉克戰爭作為個案研究，小布希在採取單邊行動、先制攻擊、政權更替等戰略作為對伊拉克發動戰爭，對國際關係及美國在國際體系的領導地位造成之影響。

心理戰不論在軍事與非軍事領域中，都是國家戰略中極為重要的一部分，兩岸自開放大陸探親二十餘年來，交流日益密切，中共一方面積極與我經貿合作，一再強調兩岸未來應朝向協商與和平談判方式進行，另方面又以《反分裂國家法》之法律將兩岸關係縮限為內政問題，並以武力威嚇為後盾，其「軟、硬兼施」之手法，處處蘊藏中共對臺心理戰之手段。本論文針對心理戰之定義、中共對臺心理戰案例及戰法進行分析，筆者以三次臺海危機歷程為例，解析中共對我軍事行動中所施行之心理戰策略；此外，我國軍正值兵力結構調整轉型期，國防部規畫建構量少質精之作戰部隊執行國防戰略，因此，筆者試圖探討臺澎防衛作戰現況、國軍心戰專業能力構建及心理戰反制作為等課題，期能知己知彼更明瞭我方所處之境遇。

北韓問題是二十世紀延續至今卻始終未能解決的複雜議題，這是因為牽涉的因素眾多：南北韓、周邊國家以及國際的考量使「維持現狀」與「模糊」政策成為處理北韓問題可以接受的模式。但事實上，吾人必須認知到在此議題上，最重要的主角仍是北韓與美國，但顯然雙方各有盤算而不能或不願直接解決。因此本文旨在探討2001至2011年美國對北韓之政策，且嘗試在現今相關領域的多數美國立場中，盡可能尋求以相對公允、同理心的角度分析問題，而非美國觀點的一言堂。本文以法國戰略學家薄富爾(André Beaufre)之「行動戰略」(Strategy of Action) 理論作為研究途徑，輔以大量相關數據資料及專著，用意在於平衡地討論美國戰略並批判其中好壞。 本文認為，小布希與歐巴馬政府對北韓政策目標一致，但戰略有所不同。受制於北韓核報復攻擊、中東戰事、經濟與他國因素，美國難以動武直取北韓，因此必須從軍事外的選項著手。筆者從軍事、政治、經濟與外交面向，以政治診斷(political diagnosis)及戰略診斷(strategic diagnosis)探討兩屆政府對北韓之行動方案。小布希和歐巴馬政府在戰略應用上符合薄富爾的觀點，但在架構面上卻有缺失，最終由於無法促使中國相助，以及自身立場的謬誤，導致兩屆政府北韓政策之失誤。 / The North Korea issue remains unresolved, and the only acceptable options for the neighbor countries are the status quo policy and the policy of deliberate ambiguity. However, it has to be acknowledged that the most important roles are North Korea and the U.S., and it is obvious they have different plans in their minds. The main idea of this thesis is to study the U.S. Policy toward North Korea (2001-2011), and present unbiased points of view instead of only the U.S. aspect. This thesis uses the Strategy of Action of André Beaufre, a French Strategist, as the research method, to analyze data and studies to fairly find out the pros and cons of the U.S. Policy toward North Korea. This thesis shows that the George W. Bush administration and the Obama administration share the same goals but different strategies toward North Korea. The U.S. have difficulty in using military action since it tries to avoid North Korea taking nuclear retaliation, and the war in the middle east and the sinking economy also limit the ability of the U.S. government. This thesis analyzes the U.S. policy toward North Korea from the aspects of military power, politics, economy and diplomacy, and it uses political diagnosis and strategic diagnosis as the approaches to examine the action plans of both Bush and Obama administrations. The research shows that the actions plans match the point of view of André Beaufre strategically, but the flaws of the plan structure, the failure to have China take a stance against North Korea and the illogicalness of the government position finally led the U.S. policy toward North Korea to a frustrated end.

北極地區因蘊藏豐富之石油、天然氣、自然資源及煤、鐵、銅、鈾等礦產資源，加上因特殊地理位置決定其全球性戰略地位，引起美、俄、加、丹麥、挪威等北極國家與其他非北極國家之爭奪，尤其在全球油氣資源日趨匱乏的今天，被稱為「第二個中東」的北極價值日益顯現； 北極之於人類價值有四重—環境、軍事、資源和航道，而中共為維護其國家經濟生存命脈之北海航道航行權及全球戰略地位之維護，而積極參與北極事物之國際活動。 吾人乃針對中共參與北冰洋區域事務博弈之利弊得失等面向進行分析與探討，並發現當前中共面臨之障礙，包括北冰洋沿岸國家試圖阻撓非北冰洋沿岸國家進入北極地區、缺乏對中共有利的國際協調機制平臺、缺乏足夠的科研資訊儲備與冰海航運船舶等限制。 此外，吾人另對北極事務主要競逐國之積極作為進行分析，並提出中共未來應對北極事務可能採取之因應作為，包括加大利用現有國際法中有利條款，維護中共的北冰洋航運權益、提升中共對北極事務的制度性參與力度、積極維護北冰洋航道的公海航運自由等，作為中共爭奪北海權益之準備作為等結論。 　　同時，吾人認為中共將持續加大對北極區域事務關注力度、決不允許淪為他國之制約地位，而威脅自身經濟、安全地位之發展；尤其中共對北極海海域劃界問題之主張，具有成為未來中共於東海劃界問題與西南海域劃界問題之參考，實為我方關注要點。 當前，我國與中共的關係，雖有所緩和，但從大的戰略方向上，中共在國際上對臺灣仍持續加以打壓，孤立臺灣，因此對臺灣而言，須瞭解中共在國際戰略中的各種作為，包括對北極事務採取的戰略為何？才能有所因應。 / Because of the Arctic region is rich in oil, natural gas, and natural resources because of the special geographical position with its global strategic position, cause the United States, Russia, Canada, Denmark, Norway and other countries and other Arctic the Arctic National Competition, especially in the global oil and gas resources shortage today, polar value appears day by day; the Arctic on the human value of four heavy environment, military, resource and channel, and the Communist Party of China to maintain its national economy lifeblood of Beihai waterway navigation rights and the maintenance of global strategic position, and actively participate in international activities in the Arctic. It is aimed at China's participation in the Arctic region affairs the pros and cons of the game were analyzed and discussed, and found that the current CPC faced obstacles, including the Arctic coastal States trying to thwart the Arctic coastal states into the Arctic, the lack of the favorable international coordination mechanism, the lack of adequate scientific research platform information reserve and ice shipping limited. In addition, one another on the Arctic affairs mainly competing country actively as carries on the analysis, and proposed the future Arctic affairs may adopt coping as, including the increased use of existing international law the favourable terms, maintenance of Arctic shipping interests, enhance the north polar affairs system involved in active maintenance efforts, Arctic waterway the free shipping, as the battle for Beihai interests of the prepared as a conclusion. At the same time, we believe that China will continue to increase the intensity of concern, regional affairs must not be allowed to become his country's restrictive position, threatening its economic, safety status of development; especially on the Arctic sea delimitation of advocates, has become the future of Yu Donghai and southwest of delimitation of maritime boundary delimitation of reference, it is for me square key points. At present, China's relations with the CPC, although alleviate somewhat, but from the strategic direction of the Communist Party of China in international, Taiwan continued to be suppressed, isolated Taiwan, so in the case of Taiwan, must understand China in international strategy in various as, including the Arctic affairs strategy? To help with.

從1986年起，因為經濟大幅成長，中國的石油需求也隨之增加，但是中國國內的石油生產卻開始下降。進入後冷戰時期，中國的石油供給更已無法自給自足，成為仰賴石油進口的國家。透過傳統現實主義理論對石油安全進行討論，我們可以得知，石油不僅僅牽涉到經濟的發展，也牽涉到國力的強弱與否。因此，石油對於一個國家在國際政治的地位或是經濟發展上都扮演了十分重要的角色，中國也因而必須考量石油對於國家安全的影響。本研究即自地緣政治觀點，分析中國石油能源與國家安全。 中國目前建構的石油安全體系，是以國內的石油化學產業的改革為基礎，以石油化學產業為工具，建構取得油源的石油外交體系，同時積極分散油源。由中國所規劃的中南半島輸油路線，中巴、中孟輸油路線，以及已經開始建設的中俄、中哈輸油路線都是以分散石油運輸路線為目標。運輸路線的規劃就是以地緣政治為出發點考量，透過與周邊國的關係建構石油運輸。 然而，儘管中國積極推動分散油源、油路的石油安全戰略，卻也牽涉到各強國在各地區的利益問題，以及各地區內部的政治、經濟、族群、宗教等問題。例如中東內部有以阿衝突、反美等問題，非洲的新興油源國、中亞各國內部都有因為宗教、政治導致的問題，而美、俄、日、印等大國與中國也在各地有所利益衝突，即使中國與俄羅斯有合作關係，卻也在中亞地區有利益競爭的關係。所以不僅中國與各強國之間有合作也有競爭外，也必須面對各個地區內部的各種問題。 / Since 1986, China’s demands for petroleum had increased extensively with the significant growth of economy, but the domestic production of petroleum decreased relatively. In the post-Cold War period, China was non-self-sufficient on supplying petroleum, and became a state which depending on importing petroleum thereout. By the discussion on the security of petroleum with the theory of traditional realism, we can conclude that the petroleum doesn’t only concern the development of economy but also concern the strength of nations. Therefore, we can see that petroleum plays an important role both on the status of international politics and the development of economy, and China must concern the influence of petroleum to national security thereof. Then, the proposal of this thesis is to analyse the relationship between supplies and demands of petroleum and the national security of China with the view of geo-politics. The petroleum security system of China was framed on the basis of the revolution of domestic petroleum chemical industry, so as to frame her petroleum diplomacy system to acquire the petroleum, and decentralize the sources of petroleum meanwhile. The oil pipeline ways set up by China was formulated according to the goal of decentralizing the pipeline of petroleum, such as Medium South Peninsula pipeline, China-Pakistan pipeline, China-Bengal pipeline, China-Russia pipeline, and the China- Kazakhstan pipeline. Therefore, we can conclude that China set up its oil pipeline by establishimg the relations with surrounding nations which concerning geo-politics. However, the strategies of petroleum security that decentralizing oil pipelines and petroleum sources was involved with the conflicts of interests among powerful nations in all areas, including the conflicts of politics, economy, race, and religion. For examples, there are conflicts between Israel and Palestine, and anti-American issue in Middle-East area. There are conflicts among the nations in middle Asia which caused by religion and politics. And there are conflicts of interests among USA, Russia, Japan, Indian and China all over the world. So does China conflict with Russia in middle Asia, even though there is a cooperative relation between them. In general, China does not only cooperate with other powerful nations but also contend against them. Furthermore, China has to face the conflicts and issues caused in every area when she promotes the strategy of petroleum security.

中國的崛起如同現實主義對於國家間衝突的解釋，亦即國際間對於中國威脅的廣泛論述，不論其威脅是否真實存在，其對國際間的影響已是不可否認的事實。1993年中國成為石油淨進口國，這是自1963年以來中國首次出現的石油赤字，宣示了中國石油供應自給自足局面的結束，也開啟了中國能源政策對外擴張的開始。 中國正由計劃經濟朝向其所謂的社會主義市場經濟轉型，對於在2050年達到中等發達國家水平的目標而言，現階段的發展將是一個重要的轉折。中國的經濟發展計畫，預約了對於石油的消費，其能源消費結構的錯置與供應來源的單一性以及潛在的脆弱性，對於中國的能源安全來說無疑是一個潛在的負面因素。尤其是當增加石油進口成為解決中國能源安全矛盾的必要路徑時，對外的能源政策將是確保中國能源安全是否穩定的關鍵點。 國家為了能源的安全獲得確保，必然發展對內保護對外擴張的能源政策，尤其是仰類進口能源的國家，其對外的能源政策將更具侵略性。中國的能源安全戰略圍繞在多元化為中心的概念展開，包括能源的來源、種類、路線以及運輸與獲得方式的多元化。對內，中國透過多元管道強化本身的能源安全鏈，避免對於進口石油產生過度依賴。對外，中國領導階層積極的出訪，綜合外交的力量推展「能源外交」，全方位的在全球佈局，突破大國對中國軟性的圍堵，除了獲得實質的石油收益外，也開啟了中國外交的新趨向。 / China rises abruptly symbolizes the explanation of realism is on a collision between the countries. Meanwhile the world make a popular discussion about they were threatened by China. Whatever it exist or inexistence, but it definitely influence the whole world. Until 1993 China became the petroleum importer that caused first deficit in China since 1963. It announced to end in self-contained petroleum and commence opening the extensive of energy resources policy. The China is going to plan the economics that go forward and change into socialist marketing. For the 2050, they’ll expect to achieve the goal of middle-development country, and a turning point in the developing at this most important stage now. In their economics- development planning which bespeak the petrol expense is error of structures of resources expense, single-supply source and potential frailty. It was without doubt that potential negative factors for safety of energy resources of China. When they increase to import the petroleum, it becomes to solve the safety of energy resources was confusing with necessary method. An external policy of energy resources will ensure China to connect the safety of energy resources if it's stable. They need safety of energy resources was assured so that they must develop the policies are internal protection and external extension. Especially the country depend on the resources imported, the external policy will more invasion. The safe policies of resources are around the conception of diversity are origin, kinds, channels, transportation and so on. For domestic policies, China use the diverse channels to strong the energy in Security and avoid to over rely on the imported petroleum. For foreign policies, China leaderships are highly active to make an official visit and diplomatic power combined to promote the “Energy diplomacy”. They operated the overall strategy of global and broke through soft containment of super state to them. Therefore China not only gains much benefit of petroleum virtually but opens the new tending of diplomacy.

經濟是習近平發展「中國夢」不可或缺的重要支柱，中國在經濟高速發展下，能源消耗量持續激增，缺乏能源將對經濟與社會發展產生負面影響，對外依存度日益擴大，增加石油及天然氣進口，是解決中國能源短缺問題的主要方法。 就中國能源安全而言，外部面臨海外能源來源受周邊地緣政治影響，內部存在能源結構上過度依賴煤炭等問題，而鄰接中國的中亞地區為新興能源中心，與中亞的能源合作能夠減少能源輸入風險、改善能源結構，有助中國克服能源安全的窘境。中亞的豐富能源不僅受到周邊大國的覬覦，也使中亞國家內部生成尋租與貪腐、制度弱化、資金錯配、阻礙長期發展等資源詛咒現象。本論文透過觀察中國與中亞間雙邊貿易、直接投資與大型投資與合約的變化，從國際政治經濟學的視角，分析獲得中國正運用經濟資源在中亞發揮政治影響力，逐步實踐具體的能源戰略。中國藉地緣經濟進入中亞，掌握經濟互補的競爭優勢，以提供中亞國家發展所需資金與基礎建設，並排除區域發展障礙，增進彼此能源合作的機會，達成鞏固中國能源安全的戰略目的。 / A strong economy is the rock of XI Jingpi’s “Chinese Dream”; however, because of the dramatically increasing energy consumption with rapid economic growth, energy deficiency leads to negative economic and societal effects in China. Therefore, in light of aggravated overdependence on energy imports, the major solution for the shortage would be searching for more energy accesses, especially for oil and natural gas. China faces several energy security problems. For example, domestically, China heavily depends on coal as thermal resources. Externally, energy accesses significantly are affected by geopolitics. However, Central Asia, a new but major center of natural resources, not just a neighbor of China, but also a crucial partner in energy cooperation capable of reducing China’s risks of importing resources from other routes, changing Chinese energy structure at present, and finally helping China overcomes the problem of energy security. Abundant resources is not just a blessing making other countries jealous, resources also becomes a curse resulting from rent-seeking, corruption, financial dislocation, etc. in Central Asian countries, and these issues hinder the long-term development in the region. From the international political economy perspective, I observe the change of bilateral trade, foreign direct investment, and major investment contracts between China and Central Asian countries to analyze if China gradually practices its energy strategy through imposing political influence in Central Asia via economic leverages. I find that China encourages energy cooperation with Central Asian countries by taking the advantage of geography and financing investment of infrastructure which both creates a promising environment of development.

回顧中共海權及海軍的發展及21世紀現行海權發展目標、作為、法令依據等。其海軍力量的發展如同其經濟成長情形一樣快速起飛，很自然成為西方矚目焦點，特別是建立遠洋艦隊的企圖，更引起外界高度關注。依中共海軍規劃，希望在2050年具備並達到遂行遠洋作戰的能力和目標。 進入21世紀， 2003年至2011年，即便是在國際金融危機的衝擊下，中國經濟仍達到了10.7%的平均增速。2011年，中共經濟總量超越日本，成為世界第二大經濟體，也意味著中共海權的發展伴隨著經濟正高速的發展，期與世界大國站立於同一水平。1982年4月聯合國通過了「聯合國海洋法公約」，於1994年11月正式生效，此法的公佈使得海洋權再分配進入了新階段，不僅確立了12海浬領海制度、200海浬專屬經濟區制度、大陸架制度及國際海底區域與資源是全人類共同繼承的財產和公海管理制度等。「聯合國海洋法公約」的生效，對中共而言不僅是提供近300萬平方公里海洋國土的法律依據，使中共站在維護國家基本利益與主權的角度上有理有據的發展海權作為。在此時空環境下，中共積極地將海軍戰略調整為更具主動性的「近海防禦」之區域性戰略，逐步擴大到太平洋「第二島鏈」的遠洋海軍。藉由經濟發展支撐海權，透過海權的維護來牽引經濟發展加快實現國防現代化，尤其海上武裝力量的建設，使其能確保海上行動自由，保障海上交通運輸和海洋安全。 在中共挾其綜合國力快速增長的同時，可預見的中共逐漸發展的海權及海軍戰略，勢必影響區域間各國的緊張及美、日等國的約制與挑戰。一場軍備競賽正開始中，中共海軍已逐漸由區域性海軍向全球性遠洋海軍發展與布局，進而發展成為海陸複合的強國。 / The purpose of this study is to retrospect the development of China's Navy and maritime right as well as its goals, operations and related laws. Its maritime power improves rapidly in coordinate with its economic growth. Obviously, Beijing attempts to establish the deep waters fleet capability which is also so-called "Blue Sea", resulting in the attention of western powers. Therefore, PRC (People's Republic of China) is going to have the deep waters military capabilities in 2050 according to China's force building schedule. At first, China's economy growth rate reaches 10.7 percentages on average from 2003 to 2011. In 2011, its economic trade overpasses Japan to be the 2nd largest country all over the world, indicating that its economic achievement already reach the level of advanced nations. Secondly, the United Nations passed "United Nations Maritime Convention" in April, 1982 and took in effect in November, 1994. This pact not only redistribute the maritime right into new phase by clarifying 12 nautical miles of territorial waters, 200 nautical miles of economic waters and the continental shelf, but also state that all the maritime resources belong to all the human beings. Moreover, the Act facilitates China's gaining maritime territory for 3 million square meters and provides the judicial basis to maintain its national interests and sovereignty. Through this specific phenomenon, Beijing actively adjusts its naval strategy from coastal waters to deep waters reaching the field of 2nd Island Chain. The maritime right facilitates economic development and modernizes its national defense abilities, especially on setting up the armed maritime power to safeguard the maritime transportation and sea lane security. Lastly, with the combined power development, China's maritime right and naval strategy will cause unrest in the region as well as the constraints and challenges from US and Japan. As predicted, there will have an armament race when Beijing develops its naval strategy from coastal waters to deep waters. China will gradually transform into a super power.

英國政治經濟學家馬爾薩斯(Thomas Robert Malthus)，在其重要的著作人口論(An Essay on the Principle of Population)的基本思想 中提到，食物是人類生存的最重要條件。並預言著人口增長超越食物供應，會導致人均佔有食物的減少，最弱者就會因此而餓死。因此糧食，對於一個國家，甚至是整體人類而言，都是攸成關生存問題的重要資源。所以糧食供應的穩定與正常與否，自然也為一個國家重要的課題。著名國際關係學者漢斯‧摩根索(Hans J. Morgenthau)也提到，「一個國家對糧食的缺乏，是其在國際政治當中永遠的弱點之一」以及「糧食的自給自足，是國家偉大力量的來源」。 可見糧食問題對一個國家在國際間與其它國家競逐之時，是一個不容忽視的、直接影響國家實力的重要因素。美國社會學家Brown開始向這個世界揭示了有關中國的糧食需求問題，首先是中國龐大的人口帶來的龐大糧食需求，將影響整個世界的糧食生產與供應，最首當其衝的，便是中國週邊的國家。諸如日本、印度或是東南亞國家等，都將因為中國龐大的糧食需求而受到影響。 其後繼續延伸發展此一論調，如中國與印度，即便在本國糧食生產上有逐步成長，但在二十五年內，便會被自己的人口成長率趕過去，形成仍是糧食缺乏的問題。 Brown的研究展開了在此一議題上的討論，也形塑了「中國滅亡論」的論調。在「中國滅亡論」之外，也有另一派學者對此一議題抱持著不同的看法。Gerhard K.Heilig，便認為Brown的分析當中錯估了中國的耕地狀況，以及忽略掉中國近年來的快速發展，尤其是科技的提升。 另外美國哥倫比亞大學教授Sachs也認為中國的進步與成長將會是史無前例的個案，不會如同Brown說的走向滅亡，反倒會成為西方國家或是整個世界的新威脅，這也就形成了「中國威脅論」的出現。