本文之研究旨在應用貝氏方法，并配合經濟計量模型體系，以探討為使達成預定目標 ，而期望損失為最小情形下之控制變數最適控制值的決定。全文共分為五章，玆分別 扼要說明如下： 第一章緒論計分三節分別就從事本研究的研究動機與目的、研究方法、及研究範圍與 限制作一敘述。 第二章貝氏推論之研討計分五節。為探討貝氏方法在統計推論上之應用，本章將依序 就其立論根據，事前、事後情報來源，推定及其應用作一詳細的介紹。 第三章共分為五節就應用貝氏方法求解最適控制值的理論部份逐次加以探討。於第四 章中將就依此方法，嘗以臺灣實際的個案作一實例應用，以求解強力貨幣在70年第二 季至71年第三季等六季之最適控制值。并就所得結果作一檢討，而作成第五章之結論 。

傳統的中小型企業，在台灣經濟發展史上，佔了舉足輕重的地位。隨著時代的變遷，社會型態的改變，人們的生活水準提高了，價值觀改變了，而在市場的強烈競爭下，企業成長成為必然的，在成長過程中，管理控制成了重要的課題。 本論文個案研究，透過相關文獻探討，傳統企業在成長階段，與管理控制的演進，除了大環境的趨勢變革外，都應用了理論的科學根據。 / The traditional small and medium enterprises play a crucial role in the history of economic development in Taiwan. With the change of times and society type, people’s living standard has been raised and their values have changed. Under the strong market competition, the growth of the enterprise has become inevitable. During the process of growth of the enterprise, the management control has become a key issue. This paper adopts the method of a case study, studies the related literature, and discusses the evolution in the traditional enterprise in the process of growth and management control, which applies the theoretically scientific foundation, except the environmental change in trend.

在解釋變數含測量誤差的簡單線性迴歸模式中，欲使第t+1期之產出Y達到某一目標值Y^*，則必需控制第t+1期投入變數Z，若參數α，β為以知時，可以將其設定為θ=(Y^*-α)/β。但當參數α，β為未知時，我們利用LSCE控制法則的設定方法，得到第t+1期設定的控制值Z_t+1，而且在機率為1下，Z_t+1 收斂至θ=(Y^*-α)/β。而貝氏最佳控制法則部份則是由第t+1期的預測期望損失，找出使其為最小的Z值即是所應設定的第t+1期控制值Z_t+1，並利用模擬結果來說明。

University of Macau / Faculty of Education

本研究主要的研究目的在探討青少年自我概念是否能在父母控制（父母心理控制、及父母行為控制）與青少年情緒困擾（焦慮、憂鬱、及憤怒）及偏差行為之間扮演中介的角色。以國中生與高中生共967人為研究對象，以父母心理控制量表、父母監控量表、自我概念量表、貝氏焦慮量表、青少年憂鬱量表、特質生氣量表、偏差行為量表等做為研究工具，再以描述統計、T檢定、皮爾遜積差相關、結構方程模式等統計方法進行分析，結果發現： (一)、 青少年知覺中等程度之父母心理控制與父母行為控制、中上程度之自我概念、低程度之情緒困擾與偏差行為。 (二)、 男、女生所知覺之父母心理控制、焦慮、及偏差行為，存在顯著差異。 (三)、 國、高中生所知覺之父母行為控制、自我概念、焦慮、憂鬱、憤怒、及偏差行為，存在顯著差異。 (四)、 青少年知覺之父母心理控制與其自我概念之間存在顯著負相關、父母行為控制與其自我概念之間存在顯著正相關；父母心理控制與父母行為控制之間存在顯著正相關。 (五)、 青少年自我概念與其焦慮、憂鬱、憤怒、及偏差行為之間，皆存在顯著負相關。 (六)、 青少年知覺之父母心理控制與其焦慮、憂鬱、憤怒、及偏差行為之間，皆存在顯著正相關。 (七)、 青少年知覺之父母行為控制與其焦慮、憂鬱、及憤怒之間，皆不存在顯著相關；青少年知覺之父母行為控制與其偏差行為之間，存在顯著負相關。 (八)、 「父母控制、青少年自我概念、與其情緒困擾及偏差行為間關係」理論模式，與由研究對象為觀察樣本所估計之模式達到適配。亦即將青少年自我概念納入模式後，青少年知覺之父母心理控制對其情緒困擾（焦慮、憂鬱、及憤怒）不再存在直接影響，僅透過青少年自我概念間接負向影響其情緒困擾與偏差行為；父母行為控制除了直接負向影響偏差行為之外，還透過青少年自我概念間接負向影響其情緒困擾與偏差行為。 本研究根據上述研究結果逕行討論，並提出建議，供後續相關研究與實務工作之參考。 / The main purpose of this study is to investigate whether adolescent’s self concept is able to mediate between parental control and adolescent’s emotional disturbance as well as disruptive behavior. Parental control includes psychological control and behavioral control. Emotional disturbance is composed of anxiety, depression and anger. A total of 967 secondary school students from grade 7 to grade 12 responded to the Parental Psychological Control Scale, Parental Monitoring Scale, Self Concept Scale, Anxiety Scale, Adolescent’s Depressive Scale, Anger Temperament Scale and Disruptive Behavior Scale to measure the parental psychological control, parental behavioral control, adolescent’s self concept, anxiety, depression, anger and disruptive behavior respectively. The data were conducted by descriptive statistics, T test, Pearson correlation, structural equation modeling. The major findings are as follows: 1. Adolescents perceived middle level of parental psychological control and behavioral control, upper middle level of self concept, and low level of emotional disturbance as well as disruptive behavior. 2. The parental psychological control, anxiety and disruptive behavior perceived by the male adolescents are significantly different from those perceived by the female adolescents. 3. The parental behavioral control, self concept, anxiety, depression, anger and disruptive behavior perceived by the junior high school students are significantly different from those perceived by the senior high school students. 4. Parental psychological control and behavioral control have the significantly negative and positive correlation with self concept respectively. Parental psychological control is positively correlated with behavioral control significantly. 5. Self concept is negatively correlated with emotional disturbance and disruptive behavior. 6. Parental psychological control is positively correlated with emotional disturbance and disruptive behavior. 7. Parental behavioral control is negatively correlated with disruptive behavior, however, have no significant correlation with emotional disturbance. 8. The SEM results showed that the proposed “model of relations among parental control and adolescents' self concept, emotional disturbance and disruptive behavior” fit the collected data well. That means when considering self concept in model, parental psychological control no longer affects emotional disturbance directly, but, negatively influences emotional disturbance and disruptive behavior via self concept indirectly. Parental behavior control owns the similar indirect influence like psychological control, besides, affects disruptive behavior directly. In accordance with the findings, researcher raised several advices for parents and school for the sake of parental practices and education. Suggestions were also made for further research.

本研究以2007年至2011年中國滬深交易所A股上市公司為研究樣本，以中國證監會公佈之行政裁罰、深滬兩交易所對上市公司之處分、及企業自行揭露的內部控制評價報告之內容分析企業發生內控缺失之類型，依照中國《企業內部控制基本規範》，將內部控制缺失依內控五大要素與五大目標予以分類彙總。並將企業的投資效率分為投資不足與過度投資，分別探討內部控制有效性對公司投資效率之影響。 實證結果顯示投資不足的程度與可靠的財務報導之內控目標的內控缺失存在正向的顯著關係。而過度投資的程度與是否發生內控缺失、後勤支援活動和內控設計及執行的內控缺失類型、內控五大要素、及營運的效率效果之內控目標的內控缺失呈現顯著或單尾顯著的負向關係。整體而言，在被監管單位揭發內控缺失資訊，內控有效性較低，而自我揭露愈多內控資訊，企業內控意識可能較佳之假設下，內控缺失一定程度影響企業的投資決策，內控的有效性有助於投資效率。 / Based on the sample of A-share listed companies in China over the period of 2007-2011, the research classified the companies by under investment and over investment, and investigated the impact of internal control efficiency on firm investment effectiveness separately The study comprehensively collects internal control reports released by listed firms and collects penalties which are released by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), the Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) and the Shenzhen Stock Exchange (SZSE). A further classification of internal control weaknesses was performed based on the nature of the events, COSO Internal Control — Integrated Framework and regulations of internal control in China. 　　In sum, the empirical results indicate that, for the companies under investment, the internal control weaknesses of financial reporting have significant positive impact on firm investment effectiveness. On the other hand for the companies which were over investment, those with internal control weaknesses have significant negative association with investment effectiveness. Moreover, the results show that companies with defective of logistics work or the design and execution of internal control were worse performers on investment effectiveness. Based on the COSO framework, the internal control weaknesses classified by the elements, including control environment, risk assessment, control activities, information and communication, monitoring, and the efficient and effective operations of the internal control objective are significant or one-tailed significant negative correlated to firm investment effectiveness. Collectively, if the internal control weaknesses were disclosed by the authorities, the firms had worse internal control efficiency, while the firms which were more conscious of internal control would disclose the internal control weaknesses themselves. The study shows that internal control weaknesses have impact on firm investment policy, and that internal control efficiency helps promote firm investment effectiveness.

對偏差行為的解釋有多種理論，不過以後天的角度詮釋偏差行為，則社會控制理論、自我控制理論是最有力的解釋理論。本研究亦欲圖驗證此兩種理論在多變量潛在成長模型的效用。因此，研究者採用臺灣教育長期追蹤資料庫之資料，以自我控制信念、親子關係、同儕關係、學校依附感、教育抱負、學業成就預測偏差行為之變化。此外，並探究性別對潛在成長模型之影響。茲將研究成果陳述如下。 1、偏差行為隨著年級逐漸增加，日益增加，變異數亦逐漸擴大。 2、整體多變量潛在成長模型中，整體模式適配度良好。 3、自變項對偏差行為截距、斜率解釋量分別為.19、.32，顯示模式的解釋量仍有改善空間，其中對截距之預測達顯著者，分別為同儕關係截距、學校依附感截距、學業成就截距、親子關係截距。對斜率之預測力達顯著者，分別為學校依附感斜率、學校依附感截距、同儕關係斜率、同儕關係截距、教育抱負截距。 4、運用多群組分析，發現男女生並無測量不變性。 5、性別對偏差行為有重要影響。 6、預測女生的斜率主要考量其學校依附感和同儕關係，但預測男生偏差行為的斜率除了與學校、同儕的關係外，還要考量其教育抱負。 最後，根據上述的結論，研究者分別提出實務、研究方法、未來偏差行為研究之建議，以作為參考。 / The cause of deviation behavior is explained by many theories. However, social control theory and self control theory are the most famous and important theories. Research would like to confirm the theories which are applied in multivariable latent growth curve model. Therefore, TEPS data are analyzed to investigate the model, and the results are as follows: (1)Deviation behavior gradually increases with time and variety of it also rises. (2)The fit of model is good. (3)The intercept is explained 19% by independent variables and the slope is explained 32%. In addition, it is significant for the intercept of the relation of peer group, attachment feeling of school, parental relation and academic achievement in the regression which is employed to anticipate the intercept. It is significant that the intercept of the relation of peer group, attachment feeling of school, and educational ambition and the slope of peer group, and attachment feeling of school can anticipate slope of deviation behavior effectively. (4)Employing multi-group analysis, there exist gender differences in the model. (5)Sex has influence on deviation behavior. (6)For girls, the slope of deviation behavior is anticipated by social relations, but for boys, besides the peer relationship, it is also included the educational ambition. According the results, some suggestions are proposed for future researches and the administration authority.

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近幾年來, 由於經濟環境之快速變遷與發展, 企業經營之多角化與國際化, 為能順利 地達成組織目標, 并減少環境變數帶來之衝擊, 紛紛地尋求因應對策。在此情勢下, 預算控制制度--屬於管理控制之重要控制手段, 為企業管理利器。其對企業整體營運 之貢獻與重要性, 已漸為許多企業管理當局了解與重視。 在審計規劃過程中, 評估客戶內部控制結構往往是審計人員之工作重心。依據美國第 95號審計公報之說明, 預算控制屬於內部控制結構中, 控制環境之一重要因素。企業 若確實執行預算控制, 有助於加強其內部控制結構, 提高經營效率。而一些學者, 如 felix,jiambalvo,barrington等人曾特別強調, 預算控制不僅對提高企業營運效率有 幫助, 而且在審計規劃過程中, 亦可被審計人員加以利用, 使整體審計工作更有效率 。因此, 在現今企業越來越重視預算之際, 審計人員是否也已意識到客戶預算制度對 審計規劃之幫助和重要性, 是本研究所欲探討的主題。 本論文系采實驗室研究, 探討預算控制對審計規劃之影響, 此外, 由於受試者涵蓋不 同事務所之不同職位審計人員, 所以同時探討事務所規模與職位審計規劃決策判斷之 影響。

控制生產性污染行為之政策主要有四種：課稅、補貼、管制（含懲罰），與可轉讓污 染權等。其中補貼被認為是控制污染的有效手段，原因在於廠商會將補貼視為一種機 會成本，與課稅一樣使邊際成本提高，因而減少污染。但此種說法受到許多經濟學家 質疑，其原因有二：１．由於以廠商目前的污染水準作為計算補貼之污染基準，補貼 會使廠商提高它目前的污染水準，以獲取更多的補貼；２．對接受補貼的產業而言， 補貼將形成超額利潤，誘使其他廠商加入該行業，結果產業總污染增加。一般理論研 究，多假設補貼金額大小係按生產者污染量之減少程度而定；但實務上，各國對污染 控制之補貼方式，卻未必與上述理論假設一致。例如，對防治污染機器設備給予投資 抵減，便是我國與許多國家常採用的一種補貼政策。由於補貼方式不同，故對污染量 之控制效果也就不同。而本文之目的，即在比較採行投資抵減政策，與採行其他主要 污染控制政策，對污染性生產行為的不同影響。 本文除第一章為緒論外，第二章旨在整理及說明過去學者們討論過的不同補貼方法， 對個別廠商，以及整體社會之污染水準的影響效果。第三章利用個別廠商之極大化行 為假設，建立有關模型，並比較投資抵減與一般性補貼政策，以及投資抵減與課稅政 策，對個別廠商產出及污染水準的不同影響。第四章則就總體產業面，分析前述不同 污染控制政策的影響效果。第五章為結論。