論文名稱：線上題庫與適性測驗整合系統之發展研究 頁數：337 校所系別：國立政治大學教育學系 畢業時間及摘要別：九十學年度第二學期博士論文摘要 指導教授：林邦傑博士、余民寧博士 研究生：陳新豐 論文摘要內容 本研究係結合工具研發、理論驗證與效能評估的研究，旨在開發一個建構在全球資訊網的「線上題庫與適性測驗整合系統」，以提供教師在網際網路環境下的輔助教學評量系統，除了可動態新增題庫之外，並能針對學生提供童身訂做的適性測驗。因此，研究的兩個核心主軸為「線上題庫與適性測驗整合系統」之開發與「線上題庫建置」的理論驗證。 依循這兩個核心主軸，本研究的研究目的有三：（一）開發線上題庫與適性測驗整合系統。（二）驗證建置題庫的相關理論。（三）評估整合系統運作效能與使用者滿意程度。 為達成這三個研究目的，研究者採用結構分析中，Sehlly、Cashmen和Rosenblatt (2001)所提出的「系統開發生命週期」，將「線上題庫與適性測驗整合系統」開發過程分為「系統規劃」、「系統分析」、「系統設計」、「系統建置」、「系統運行與支援」等五個階段逐步開發。 研究樣本方面，第一次預試選用台南市崇明國中三年級學生115人，第二次預試選用台南市建興國中三年級學生191人，正式施測樣本則是台灣地區北、中、南、東、離島等共計九校2567位國中三年級學生為研究對象。此外，在需求調查報告部分，共調查十五位專家對開發系統的意見。 就研究工具來說，本研究主要研究工具為「線上題庫與適性測驗之整合系統」，另外，「功能需求調查問卷」、「硬體設備」、「軟體工具」、「系統評估量表」也是本研究的研究工具。 就資料處理來說，本研究運用ITEMAN、BILOG、MatLab和SPSS套裝軟體進行資料處理，所採用的統計方法包含古典測驗理論與試題反應理論等理論來分析，計有試題分析、IRT三參數估計、因素結構分析等。 研究結果部分，本研究得到如下結論：（一）線上題庫與通性測驗兩個系統可整合為一。（二）線上題庫與遍性測驗之整合系統具有多項功能。（三）結構化分析中之系統開發生命週期是開發整合系統的理想方法。（四）題庫等化轉換常數方法以Mean/Mean和Haebara等方法較佳。（五）線上測驗與紙筆測驗的試題訊息量相近，但難度偏高。（六）線上測驗連結效益良好。（七）本整合系統運作效能良好。（八）使用者對整合系統之功能感到滿意。根據研究結論，本研究針對工具研發、題庫建置、效能評估等提出具體建議。 關鍵字：試題反應理論、題庫、等化、電腦化適性測驗、系統開發生命週期 / A Reserach In The Development of An Integrated On-Line Item Bank and Computerized Adaptive Testing System Abstract This research is to develop an integrated internet system of on-line item bank and computerized adaptive testing (the "System"), which is comprised of the teaching tool development, theory verification, and efficiency evaluation. Except for the addition of new item bank dynamically, the System, an auxiliary teaching evaluation system for teachers, can also provide customarily made adaptive testing for students. Therefore, to develop an integrated on-line item bank and computerized adaptive testing system and to verify the theory of on-line item bank development constitute the two core spindles of this research. Following the aforementioned research spindles, the main purposes of this research are going to: (A). Develop an integrated on-line item bank and computerized adaptive testing system. (B). Verify the related theories concerning the development of on-line item bank. (C). Evaluate the operating efficiency of such System and the degree of users' satisfaction. The "systems development life cycle" (Sehily, Cashmen Rosenblatt, 2001), a structured analysis method, is adopted to conduct the research. The development process of an integrated on-line item bank and computerized adaptive testing system is divided into 5 separate and successive stages, starting from system planning, system analysis, system design, system development, to system operation and support. In terms of research sampling, the selected samples in the first preliminary testing are 115 ninth-grade students of Chiung-Ming High School in Tainan City, Taiwan. The selected samples in the second preliminary testing are 191 ninth-grade students of Cheng-Sing High School in Tainan City, Taiwan. The third and official sampling is 2,567 ninth-grade students who were selected from a total of 9 high schools ranging from Northern, Central, Southern, and Eastern Taiwan, and islands adjacent to Taiwan. Furthermore, in the demand side, an investigation has been conducted to consult with 15 teaching experts for their professional opinions in regard to such System development. As far as research tools are concerned, except for the main research tool - the integrated on-line item bank and computerized adaptive testing system, other research tools employed consist of functional demand questionnaires, hardware equipments, software tools, and scales for system evaluation. In the aspect of data processing, ITEMAN, BILOQ MatLab, and SPSSapplication softwares are used to perform the data processing. The statistical method,like classical true score theory and item response theory and etc., is applied to conduct the following analyses: item analysis, IRT three-parameter estimate, structured analysis of elements, and etc. The results of this research lead to the following conclusion: 1. The on-line item bank: system and the adaptive testing system, the two separate systems, can be integrated into one system. 2. The integrated on-line item bank and adaptive testing system can play multiple functions. 3. "Systems development life cycle" in the structured analysis is an ideal manner to develop an integrated system. 4. "Mean/Mean", "Haebara" and, etc. are the better methods to perform the item bank equating and constant conversion. 5. For users, the information volume provided by on-line testing and traditional written testing are quite similar, but the degree of difficulty of on-line testing is higher than that of traditional written testing. 6. The linking effect of on-line testing is fair. 7. The operating efficiency of the integrated system is fair. 8. Users are satisfied with the functions of the integrated system. Based on research conclusions drawn thereon, suggestions for tool development, item bank development, and efficiency evaluation are also provided. Keywords: item response theory, item bank, equating, computerized adaptive testing,systems development life cycle

我國國營事業早期係政府戰後接收多家日本在台之企業，及大陸淪陷後遷台之國營事業為主，而後1970年代基於促進產業之發展，亦相繼成立多家國營企業，然近年來面臨市場開放、盈餘繳庫，以及民營化政策推動之壓力，使得國營事業轉而追求土地資產個別利益之獲取，作為創造盈餘來源，或是吸引投資對象之重要誘因。 然而追求土地資產個別利益，往往未能切實探討國營事業之本質與利用策略，本研究即係以台電與台糖公司為例，就其土地資產利用與國營事業本業之關聯性、土地資產利用策略之差異性，探討目前國營事業土地資源歸屬、土地利用模式與營運競爭力、以及土地資源公平與效率，並進而整合國營事業土地永續利用之策略。 就國營事業資源歸屬與本業之關聯性分析，其土地資源應以全民所有為依歸，而土地資產利用應基於本業之發展。從企業不動產與策略矩陣差異分析，則因生命週期所處之階段而有所不同，成長／成熟期追求與競爭對手差異化之策略，強化土地利用之優勢；衰退期則因本業資金挹注困難，而以降低不動產之運作成本為主。相對於政府以衰退期作為移轉民營之時機，將使接手者缺乏經營本業之誘因下，僅著眼於土地之利益，將更易引發土地資源歸屬之衝突。 而就土地資源公平與效率而言，國營事業應由整體觀點著手，而非侷限於單一事業土地資產利用之框架，如以使用權代替所有權之財產權型態，達成資源歸屬之公平；另以全民資源為基礎，經由市場經濟之效率，彌補市場經濟不足。因此，國營事業土地資源之整合機制，不僅考量整體土地資源之循環使用，更須妥善運用國有民營之觀念，將土地經營之利益，解決民營化所生之缺憾，以建構國營事業土地資源永續利用之整體策略。 關鍵字：國營事業、土地資產利用、資源歸屬、生命週期、策略矩陣 / Most of the older state-owned corporations (SOCs) in Taiwan found their predecessors in the companies established by the colonial Japanese government and later took over by the Chinese central government at the end of the World War II as well as in the enterprises sponsored by the central government after its withdrawal from Mainland China to Taiwan. By 1970s, several new SOCs were farther set up with the mission to promote the island's industrial development. Privileged by long-term government protection, these SOCs are now confronted with severe challenges from the increasing deregulation in the market and the pressing demand for privatization. They have accordingly resorted to their land assets as an essential source for generating earnings and a major incentive for attracting investments. However, in their pursuit of the profits promised by their land assets, SOCs in Taiwan in general have failed to take into sufficient consideration of their nature as state-owned corporations and effective utilization strategies. The research, based on the examples of Taipower Company and Taiwan Sugar Company, starts by examining the relation between a SOC's core business and its utilization strategies for land assets and the differences between the Taipower and Taiwan Sugar utilization strategies. The research then moves on to analyze the attribution of the SOC's land resources, the utilization models and operational competitiveness, and the fairness and efficiency in the utilization of land resources. Results of the previous studies are then integrated for the research to develop integrated strategies for the sustainable utilization of SOC's land assets. In its analysis on the relation of SOC's core business and the attribution of its assets, the research regards the land resources as owned by the general public and suggests that the land resources should be utilized in a manner that contributes to the development of the SOC's core business. Analysis based on corporate real estate and strategic matrix farther indicate that utilization of land assets varies in accordance with the life cycles of the SOC's core business. In times of business growth and maturity, utilization of land assets should be optimized to perpetuate differentiation in one's core business from one's competitors. On the other hand, in times of decline, the top priority should be the effective reduction in the operation costs of land assets as capital support from the core business grows unreliable. The government's active promotion of the privatization of SOCs in times of decline tends to cripple the privatized SOC's interest in its core business and to prompt it to focus on exploiting the profits of its land assets, thereby triggering conflicts in the attribution of state-owned land resources. How to achieve fairness and efficiency in the utilization of SOCs' land resources is an issue to be examined with a comprehensive perspective; it should not be forced to fit into the utilization model of a single SOC. Replacing ownership with usership, for example, can be an effective way to ensure the fairness in the attribution of land resources. Developing the land assets of SOCs as public resources can help boost up the efficiency of market economics to compensate its inadequacies. Therefore, an integration mechanism in the utilization of the land assets of SOCs is needed to facilitate the continual use of land resources. Careful and skill application of the "state ownership for private operation" concept is also of crucial importance in using the profits generated by the management of land resources to fix the flaws of privatization and to develop the integrated strategies for the sustainable use of land resources of state-owned corporations in Taiwan. Key words: state-owned corporation, utilization strategies for land assets, attribution of the resource, life cycle, strategic matrix.

隨著產業與經濟的全球化的浪潮下，「研發」與「創新」成為我國科技產業對抗全球的競爭壓力與推動組織營運的重要後盾，在新產品不斷推陳出新的帶動下，愈來愈短的產品生命週期，以及愈來愈多變的顧客需求，「速度」成為企業取得競爭優勢的關鍵因素，因此，我國企業紛紛透過導入產品生命週期管理（PLM）系統以縮短產品開發時程，使企業掌握新產品上市的先機。此外，透過PLM系統快速連結與蒐集研發知識，有助於企業實踐知識管理，加速組織與科技的融合與智慧財產的傳承，二十一世紀是知識經濟時代，企業能活用個人與組織內、外部的知識，則可創造價值並提昇企業競爭力。PLM系統使組織內研發之知識可有效的管理，並運用逐漸累積的資源形成的珍貴之研發知識，有效整合與串連成組織重要的知識資產；然而，知識管理之推展除資訊系統外，亦需要組織活動的配合。 本研究同時從組織與資訊科技（PLM）兩構面來探討研發單位的知識管理活動，旨在剖析台灣科技公司採用PLM系統下的知識管理活動，並瞭解影響研發知識管理的關鍵因素。本研究採個案研究法，首先經由文獻回顧導出實證研究的觀念性架構，再以此理論觀念模式為主軸進行個案訪談，實地深入訪談四家科技公司，瞭解其研發知識管理活動及運作模式。 本研究所得到的初步研究發現包括：（1）在研發知識管理推行實務上，企業需同時重視組織與資訊科技兩構面的作為，並將兩者平衡使知識管理達到真正的效益；（2）企業的知識分享文化與高階領導者態度等內部因素，對於研發人員的知識管理活動具關鍵影響力；（3）績效評估制度知識管理目標的配合，有助於知識管理效益的提昇；（4）企業研發創新的程度影響其知識創造的來源；（5）企業透過供應鏈的多元合作關係，形成知識創造的網路關係；因此，品牌廠商與代工廠商兩者的知識管理活動具有相依性；（6）企業透過PLM系統的採用將知識管理結合於作業流程之中，並使研發過程中個人之知識轉化為組織之知識；（7）企業的知識管理策略影響其知識擴散之作為。本研究最後並對企業經理人與後續研究者分別提出實務上與研究上之建議。 / Taiwanese high-tech industry has been emphasized the value of R&D innovation since 2000 in order to survive under the strong competition in globalization environment. The capability of innovation and efficiency of product development have been on the highly priority of companies. Hence, Taiwanese companies implement the product lifecycle management (PLM) system to improve product development schedule. Knowledge is an important intangible asset for companies in the 21th century. Because of PLM system, companies could manage R&D knowledge through collecting and linking R&D project or event. However, the promotion of knowledge management could not exist without the information systems and organization activities. This article considers the knowledge management activities from organizational and technical aspects. The purpose of the research is to examine the knowledge management of R&D division under the implementation of PLM system, and find out the key factors which influent R&D knowledge management. The research adopts four Taiwanese high-tech companies as Case Studies and has interviews with managers to understand knowledge management in R&D division under the implementation of PLM system. By knowing inside information of knowledge management in the R&D division of companies would make my research more practical and well-organized to give examples and facts to the future implementation of PLM system for Taiwan industries.

台灣高科技產業經過三十多年的發展，已累積了雄厚的資金與技 術基礎。而近日來由於政府政策的倡導與產品應用的擴展等緣故，使 得LED 產業成為當前最具未來發展潛力之產業。對於以投資在具有發 展潛力產業的創業投資公司來說，LED 相關之產業儼然成為投資首選 的目標。然而，台灣的創業投資事業的發展在2000 年達到高峰之後，近年來以日漸趨緩。雖然整體大環境表現不佳，但是其中仍不乏表現不錯的創業投資公司。本文以「源創管理顧問」為研究對象，以其投資於LED 產業為例，探討其創投經營之成功關鍵。研究發現，「股東人際網絡的運用」與「產業供應鏈的整合」為源創管理顧問最主要之核心要素。與其他創投公司相比，源創管理顧問除了投資標的公司以外，仍以股東之人際網路資源促進標的公司與上下游供應鏈之間的關係，一方面確保標的公司之穩定成長，另一方面也同時促進LED 產業之技術升級，以及加強與國外大廠之合作。以LED 產業國際分工的成效，以個案公司為例，本文建議台灣未來創業投資事業的發展也可採取國際分工的模式，如此一來除了可使創業投資公司處於有利優勢外，亦可完成其對於國家整體產業升級的使命。 / Taiwan High Tech Industry has developed for over thirty years and has amassed huge quantity of capital and technology knowledge. Due to government policies and product usage expansion in recent years, LED has become a highly potential industry. Therefore, venture capitalists are likely to lean towards investing in this industry due to its high growth rate. However, the development of venture capital has since slowed down upon reaching its peak in year 2000. Though most ventures did not perform well however, there were some that did well. The company studied in this thesis is InnoStream Consultancy Services. The study is to explore on their investment in the LED industry and the reasons for success. The study has discovered the usage of networking and integration of supply chain as the elements for the achievement. Different from the rest of industry, InnoStream made use of resources such as the network of its shareholders to foster the supply chain integration. As such, they managed to ensure steady growth of the company, development in their LED technology and strengthened in ties with overseas manufacturer. This study suggests international cooperation in the LED industry. Such a policy will improve the competitiveness of Taiwan’s LED industry in the global market, and result in industry upgrade.

自2007年Eee PC刮出一陣小筆電的旋風，由07年一直紅到09年，這段過程中爭議不斷，很多廠商當作是金融海嘯下的神兵利器，也有很多廠商認為是讓筆電產業變紅海的致命毒藥；而眼前看到的事實包括07連續兩年亞馬遜網路賣場的熱賣，與華碩在08年第四季因庫存過多導致的首次虧損等，這些狀況更讓人覺得是霧裡看花，究竟小筆電的產業趨勢會如何發展，廠商又該如何制定競爭策略與規劃產品發展呢?本研究的目的就是要藉由研究小筆電的消費者行為，進而發掘小筆電的產業趨勢，並協助廠商制定競爭策略並規劃產品發展。 本研究以Sheth的消費價值(Consumption Value)模式為基礎，再配合消費者行為區隔(Segmentation)與Kotler產品屬性理論中的核心利益(Core Benefit)與基本產品(Basic Product)發展為本研究的研究架構，調查方式是以線上問卷的便利取樣法調查小筆電的潛在顧客，研究方法則先由因素分析找出樣本的消費價值，再藉由多變量分析以了解消費者的購買行為間消費價值的差異，藉以判斷不同購買時期、不同購買行為的消費者在數量與消費價值的趨勢，最後再檢定消費價值與產品屬性的相關系數來判斷該如何根據消費價值調整核心利益的發展方向與基本產品的規格，並配合檢定結果和敘述統計來分析小筆電的產業趨勢。 本研究透過實證分析得到以下的發現： 1. 四項消費行為在性別、年齡層、職業類型、年收入間至少有一項具有差異。 2. 消費者整體而言，較認同小筆電帶來的功能性價值與情境性價值 3. 四項市場區隔至少有一項消費價值具有顯著差異 4. 以調查的時間點來說，不同時期的已購者與未購者間的情境性價值有顯著差異，代表已購者受情境性因素決定購買小筆電。 5. 以調查的時間點來說，有意願在未來不同時期購買小筆電的消費者與沒有意願的消費者在社會性、情感性、情境性價值有顯著差異，代表未來影響消費者購買小筆電的因素以非功能性價值居多。 6. 已購者占有意願購買者的增加與已購者有六成比例不願意再次購買都意味著小筆電市場有可能逐漸成熟甚至衰退，廠商須重視情境性與情感性價值。 7. 有意願消費者的購買預算中位數落在一萬到一萬五千元之間，此價位購買者的新奇性價值顯著較高，而更高價位消費者的玩家專業性價值顯著較高。 8. 消費價值在消費者的各品牌偏好間無顯著差異。 9. 各消費價值與核心利益間至少有一項顯著相關，有意願購買的消費者最期待的核心利益是輕便可攜與價廉物美。 10. 各消費價值僅三項跟基本產品的升級意願有顯著相關，有意願購買的消費者最願意付費的產品屬性是品牌、處理器與電池。 / After Eee PC announced in 2007, the netbook blow a tornado until now. In this period, many people applauded and believe the netbook will be hot continuously. But, many people thought the netbook will fades gradually. The manufacturers had two different opinion, too. Many of them regarded the netbooks are sharp weapon under the financial crisis. Another though the netbooks were fatal toxicant and made the notebook industry became red sea. These opinions were confused. Beside these opinions, many facts made forecasting the trend of the netbook more difficult. We knew the netbook won the 2007 and 2008 best-sellings in Amazon online store. But we knew ASUS showed the first loss in 2008 Q4 because of excessively stock of netbook, either. All facts were just like fog, let us cannot figure out the netbook industry tendency. Therefore this research is to discover the netbook industry tendency and to help the manufacturer plan competition strategy and the product development. This research is based on the conceptual framework composed by the Sheth(1991) consumption value pattern as foundation, the consumer behavior segmentation theory and Koteler(2006) product attribute theory. We adopt on-line questionnaire to survey potential customer by convenient sampling method in this research. We use the factor analysis to find out consumption value, use MANOVA, ANOVA, Scheffe and Tamhan analysis to understand market trendancy among different periods and different consumer behaviors. Finally, we examine correlation coefficient between the consumption value and the product attribute to find the clue of product roadmap. This research obtains following findings: 1. Four consumer behaviors show at least one difference among sex, age, job and salary. 2. As for the whole, the consumers agree the functional value and the conditional value of the netbook. 3. Four segment approachs show at least one difference among seven consumer values. 4. The consumers who buy the netbook in the different period show remarkable difference in the conditional value. 5. The consumers who will purchase the netbooks in the future different time and those who won’t buy show remarkable difference among the social value, the emotional value and the conditional value. 6. Repeat buyer will become the majority of buyers in the future. And 60% buyer won’t purchase the netbook again. That mean the netbook market has the possibility become mature market even to decline gradually in the future. The manufacturers must focus on the conditional value and the emotional value. 7. The budget of the consumers who are willing to purchase fall on NT 10,000 to 14,999 dollars , whose epistemic value is remarkablly higher than others. The higher budget (NT$15,000 ~ NT$24,999) consumers’ player and perfessional value is remarkablly higher than others. 8. These consumers who perfer different brands show no difference among consumption values. 9. Consumer prefer convenient and cheap among six core benefits of the netbook. Each consumption value has at least a remarkable correlation with a core benefit. 10. Consumers prefer better brand, CPU and battery among ten basic product attributes of the netbook. Only three consumption values show the remarkable correlation with the basic product. Keywords: netbook, consumption value, consumer behavior, product attribute, segmentation, product life cycle, industrial tendency, innovation diffusion

有鑑於臺灣地區已在民國八十二年步入「老人國」之列，顯示老年人的經濟問題已不容忽視。尤其是女性老人，更是最易落入貧窮的一個族群，因此，本研究即在探討老年婦女陷入貧窮之因素及困境，研究目的有三： 1.探討婦女在老年陷入貧窮困境的因素。 2.探索貧窮的老年婦女之生活困境，以及她們如何適應。 3.依據研究結果提出政策上的建議。 本研究採取女性主義者對女性陷入貧窮因素的解釋，輔以生命週期的觀點，來探討在女性的一生中，累積經濟資源（主要是工作薪資及財產繼承）的能力與機會如何影響到其在老年期的經濟地位。另外，也探討年滿65歲的老年婦女一旦陷入貧窮，她們所面臨在經濟上、健康醫療上、住屋上、心理適應及社會疏離的困境，以及她們如何適應。 本研究係採「質化研究法」，深入訪談十二位領取中低收入戶老人生活津貼的老年婦女，藉以勾勒出其生活狀況，及其一生中面臨的困境與難關。研究結果顯示，由於女性身為經濟依賴者的身份，因此，陷入貧窮最大的因素在於被依賴者無法提供充足的經濟生活。而女性的被依賴者包含丈夫、子女及自己（含娘家）。由女性的一生看起來，她們先是生在不甚富裕的家庭裡，於是無法對她們做人力投資，再加上勞力市場的性別歧視，使她們無法靠自己的力量賺取薪資。除此之外，娘家的困窘也無法提供任何財產的繼承。而後，在婚姻市場上也找不到條件較佳的丈夫，經濟生活得不到保障。而在這種貧困的條件下，對所生育的子女自也無法做良好的投資，培育其人力資本，影響到在勞力市場的表現，再加上子女若無撫養之意願，「養兒防老」的期待自然落空。 更深一層去探究老年婦女陷入貧窮的因素，其實是受到「父權主義」操縱的影響。由父權主義延伸的「性別勞力分工」的概念，形塑了「男主外，女主內」的分工方式，於是女性擔負起無酬的家務工作及照顧工作的責任，再加上女性在教育、財產繼承、勞力市場等所受到的不平等待遇，使她們要靠自己的力量賺取薪資是相當不容易的，於是她們的經濟生活只能依賴男性，而當男性無法支持時，就無可避免的陷入貧窮。 歸納起來，受訪者正式進入社會救助體系的導火線不外三種：健康、住屋、以及工作中斷。這些事件的發生使得她們原本即不充裕的經濟生活更是陷入困境，在沒有其他支持體系的情況下，唯有進入社會救助中低或低收入戶的體系，以獲得生活上的補助。面對貧窮這項事實，大多的受訪者都抱持宿命論的態度。而在適應的方法上，受訪者多是參與宗教活動、運動、與鄰居聊天等方式來調適自己的心情。但由她們所從事的活動看來，侷限於自家附近，並很明顯的偏向從事免費的活動，形成了社會疏離的現象。會造成這種現象的因素即是因為受訪者受限於經濟狀況、教育程度以及自卑心理，使她們與外界聯繫的程度不高。 根據研究結果，研究者提出幾點建議： 1.減少就業市場的性別歧視。 2.減少因家務照顧責任的損失。 3.合理計算貧窮線之基準，並規劃相關的補助措施。 4.鼓勵低收入戶老人參與文康休閒活動，及加強對低收入戶獨居老人的問安服務。 5.規劃國民年金制度。 本研究之研究限制有二： 1.無法推論及概化。 2.信度與效度的問題。

會計的主要目的在提供有用的資訊，以幫助使用者制定相關決策。由於一般公認會計原則採用應計基礎，重視收益實現原則及配合原則，因此盈餘資訊一直相當受到重視。自Ball & Brown及Beaver從事有關盈餘與股票報酬的研究開始，許多實證研究的結果均支持盈餘具有資訊內涵。國內有關這方面的研究亦不在少數，但所得的結論並不一致，有些支持盈餘有用，有些則否。基於這個原因，本研究乃由企業生命週期的觀點來探討盈餘與股價的關聯性，以了解盈餘對股票報酬是否具有解釋能力。 　　本研究所欲檢定的假說如下： 　　一、假說一：相同的盈餘，在成長期股價的反應大於成熟期 　　二、假說二：相同的盈餘，在成熟期股價的反應大於衰退期 　　三、假說三：相同的盈餘，在成長期股價的反應大於衰退期 　　四、假說四：假說一至假說三中之三種盈餘與股價的關係，不因公司規模的大小而有差異 　　五、假說五：假說一至假說三中之三種盈餘與股價的關係，不因行業的不同而有差異 　　根據實證的結果，本研究達成下列結論： 　　一、本研究所使用的四個企業生命週期指標變數--營收成長率、營業利益率、股利支付率及企業年齡，除了股利支付率外，其餘三者之變動與預期相符，應為適當之分類指標。 　　二、對於相同的盈餘，在不同的企業生命週期階段中，股價的反應趨勢雖支持研究假說，但因各階段的係數間並未有顯著的差異，因此假說一、假說二及假說三無法獲得證實。 　　三、以不同期間進行分析時，所獲結果並無重大改善，因此仍無法證實上述三個假說的真實性。 　　四、在規模別的分析中，小公司之分析結果與正常時期之分析結果大致相同，但大公司在營收成長率、營業利益率及股利支付率三種指標中其成長期股價的反應顯著大於成熟期，此時假說一獲得證實。因小公司與大公司在各階段股價的反應並不相同，因此假說四無法獲得證實。 　　五、在行業別的分析中，只有塑膠業較符合本研究的預期，其他行業則否，因此假說五亦無法獲得證實。 　　六、造成上述結果的可能原因有三： 　　　（一）台灣股市規模尚小，且機構投資者在市場交易所占比例不高，加上證券法規未徹底執行、投資人較不重視基本分析，造成股市投機性高，因此盈餘資訊與股價間的關係不易偵測。 　　　（二）台灣上市公司大多擁有許多關係企業，或為關係企業之成員，受關係企業之影響頗深，在股價的反應上自不單純以個別公司情況作考量，因此應考慮整個企業集團的情況。 　　　（三）企業在衰退後可能因策略上的改變，如多角化經營，而進入另一個生命週期，再次成長。依本研究的理論模型，此時股價會對此有所反應，因而導致成熟期與衰退期股價對盈餘的反應與成長期無蘋著的差異。

電腦軟體這個伴隨著電腦科技，成為今後人類最具影響力的產品，隨著網際網路的發展已經進入了一個新的世代。在網際網路普及之前，軟體的發展除了要靠軟體開發廠商的創造力，最重要的就是代理商的傳播力、行銷力、及銷售力，把這樣無形性、智慧性的商品，提供給所需要的顧客。網際網路普及後則發生了本質性的轉變，尤其是數位影像及多媒體這類比較偏向一般使用者的套裝軟體。 本文將以數位影像及多媒體的代理商，在台灣的通路發展為主軸，探討這樣通路商所面臨的問題及策略決策模式。其中我們將以該產業最著名代理商為個案研究標的，以該個案為主軸探討此類通路商的如何應用五力分析在市場處於發展階段，用以發展自身的競爭優勢及其策略，在市場面臨成熟時如何應用技術採用生命週期的觀點，面對網際網路普及其對通路的衝擊，並提出可行的對應策略及建議。 / Computer softwear had been the most powerful and imfluenced tool to humannity for the then and now on, which drived by Internet and hardware popularity. Before the Internet age, software’s diffusion would depend on the orginial developer’s creativity and local Distributor’s marketing, sales force to deliver this kind of intelligent and intangible products to the customer. However as the Internet age comes, some of these connection had been changed. Image and Multi-media products could be on of the the most dramatice impact groups. In this thesis we would focus on Image and Multi-media software Distributor’s. With the most famous Distributor’s case study, we could further understand how they to build core competition and long term strategy to compet the competition and fulfill the consumer and orginal developer’s needs. Especially after the Internet age, what’s the key strategy make it survive and stronger. In this case we would learn how to use Five Fore Analysis to build core competetion in the market growing age, and how to fit in Technology Adoption LifeCycle theory in the realy world and wha’s the solution for the coming age.

本研究回顧過去「資訊通路」相關研究發現，主要集中在幾個議題，例如：經營或競爭策略、通路管理、產品訂價模式、顧客忠誠度、通路服務品質、供應商關係管理、或個案公司之研究；而回顧關於「技術採用生命週期」與「跨越鴻溝」相關研究較少且多集中於高科技技術，如LED、IC設計、網站平台..或個案產品之研究，如iPod、筆記型電腦、電子書、網路電視..等。且大部研究的探討範圍較缺乏以產業角度研究數位產品之相關通路服務需求；且並未發現根據Geoffrey A . Moore(1991)跨越鴻溝一書所論述「高科技行銷通路」理論之提出有效履行「完整產品」之實務架構並進行可行性研究。 　　就實務面觀察，多數創新數位產品在通路推展成功機率很低且擴散速度緩慢，因此本研究針對影響數位產品成敗因素分為企業內部因素、外在環境因素與通路因素三部分，並針對品牌原廠非完全可控制之通路因素進行深入分析研究。關研究方法方面，本研究以通路服務業觀點先探討數位產品的演進趨勢對消費者與品牌原廠通路服務需求的影響，接著探討消費者與品牌原廠對現有主要數位產品通路型態之滿意度分析，找出「市場需求缺口」是否存在與各項服務需求與滿意度(放心度)之差異程度；再進一步驗證本研究提出創新服務模式-「官網下單&透過區域專業經銷商交貨」之適用性與滿意度改善之比較。本研究進一步分析可能影響各項通路服務需求與滿意度的因素，包括消費者類型與品牌原廠類型。 　　經過資料分析，本研究的主要研究結果有五點，包括：消費者與品牌原廠之通路服務需求的確存在且被數位產品的演進所影響、不同類型消費者會影響對通路服務需求與通路型態的放心程度、不同類型品牌原廠影響對通路服務需求的程度不大；但會影響推展新產品初期通路選擇之策略、創新通路服務模式(官網下單&透過區域專業經銷商交貨) 符合消費者與品牌原廠需求並提升滿意度、數位產品之採用生命週期曲線之「鴻溝現象」仍然存在，且與Geoffrey A . Moore(1991)之技術採用生命週期曲線之結構有所不同。 根據上述的研究結果，本研究提出下列建議給予實務界參考： 一、對數位產品通路服務公司：跳脫「競爭」與「去服務化」思維，以實際市場需求出發以建構企業價值鏈與提升附加價值、 有效整合數量龐大區域加值經銷商的在地力量建構「售後服務」機制、優先建構「導入時效」通路價值鏈。二、對創新數位產品之品牌原廠：運用創新通路服務模式彌補目前面臨通路服務滿意度之落差、以官網發展虛實整合的創新通路服務模式較可滿足消費者需求。 / In this study, we have reviewed the existing thesis and research about keyword of IT channel and found that focused on several issues , such as: business or competitive strategy, channel management, product pricing model, customer loyalty, channel service quality, supplier relationship management, or the case company the study; About the number of existing thesis and research of "technology adoption life cycle" and "Crossing the Chasm" is rare and found that more concentrated in high technology product, such as LED, IC design, web platform .. or some case studies, such as iPod, notebook, e-books, network TV .. and so on. And lack of research to explore the issue of digital products industry ‘s real demand for channel services; and we have not found according to the theory of "high-tech marketing channel" discussed by the book of Geoffrey A. Moore’s "Crossing the Chasm" to proposed the effective implementation architecture of "whole product" and do some research. Through the observations of the practical , most innovative digital products is very low probability of success in channel marketing and spread slowly, so the study of divided the success or failure factors of digital products into three parts,including business internal factors, external environmental factors and channel factors, and in this study focus and analysis depthly to the channel factor that the brand company ‘s non-completely control . About research methods, this research study first the impact of channel service demand of the consumers and brand company by evolution of digital products through channel service’s viewpoint. Then we analysis the the satisfaction of consumer and brand company to existing major channels of digital products to identify "market demand gap" and the difference degree between the service needs and satisfaction (comfort level); further validate the applicability and satisfaction improvement degree of the innovative service model - "place orders on the official website and delivery goods through the regional dealer in relatived field" . This study further analyzed the various factors that may affect the service needs and satisfaction, including types of consumers and the types of brand company. After data analysis, the main findings of this study have five points, including: The demand of consumer and the brand company for channel services are affected by the evolution of digital products; The demand for channel services and comfort level will be affected by the different types of consumers;The demand for channel services won’t be affected by the different types of brand company, but the choice of the initial channel strategy will be affected by the different types of brand company;The innovative service model - "place orders on the official website and delivery goods through the regional dealer in relatived field" can meet the demend and improve satisfaction of the customer and brand company;The " Chasm phenomenon" of " the digital product adoption life cycle curve " still exists, and different with the structure of Geoffrey A. Moore (1991) of the technology life-cycle curve . Based on the above findings, this study proposes to practitioners the following recommendations: First, for channel services company of digital products: Give up "competition" and "off service" thinking t o construct the enterprise value chain and value- up by actual market demand；To integrate the huge forces of local value-added- reseller to construct the "after-sale- service" mechanism;Give the high priority to construct the value chain of "Time to market". Second, for the brand company of digital product : Take advantage with the innovative service model - "place orders on the official website and delivery goods through the regional dealer in relatived field" to make up for the satisfaction of the channel service；To create the innovation virtual-physical- channel service model by the official website to meet consumer demand.

針對台灣高科技產業的研究重點，學術上常常會從產業生命週期、公司內部的核心能耐或是從產業結構的定位作為出發加以探討。而本篇研究將會從策略行銷、技術採用生命週期、核心能耐三方面的角度進行技術創業公司價值創造及商業模式的分析。實務上，本篇研究也將致力於技術採用生命週期、核心能耐、策略行銷三方面角度的架構予以整合，如此一來，就能夠透過整合性架構幫助業主在實務上的思考。 本研究採取的是個案研究方法。個案研究法中對於個案的選擇，並非重其全面性與系統性，而是重在選擇有代表性與對比效果的個案，以獲得較為豐富的個案內涵以供對研究議題之深究。本研究選擇了龍彩科技、群聯電子、訊連科技以及茂林光電四家較為年輕且分屬不同產業龍頭的公司作為技術創業的個案分析公司。 本研究得到的結論為技術創業公司在保齡球道確認自己的核心技術所能為顧客創造的價值之後，由於台灣新創公司通常無法自行掌控技術採用生命週期，因此隨著產業的發展與產業間的互動，會決定未來新創公司所走的技術採用生命週期的路徑。技術創業公司通常會在康莊大道開始積極培養新的能力來因應下一波的創新。價值創造方面以降低顧客的外顯單位效益成本為關鍵重點。商業模式若從本篇研究的角度來看，即是在技術採用生命週期上，價值創造與核心能耐的互動。若價值創造與核心能耐產生良性循環，則公司的商業模式會開始強化，這樣就能協助公司在各個技術採用生命週期的階段站穩腳跟。 / Academically, we usually use the standpoints of Product Life Cycle, Core Competence or The Position of the Industrial Structure to study high-tech companies in Taiwan. This research would combine the standpoints of Technology Adoption Life Cycle, Core Competence and Strategic Marketing Analysis to study the technological entrepreneurship in Taiwan, especially in value creations and business models. This is a multi-case study, choosing the representative and comparable cases, including HC Photonics Corp., Phison Electronics Corp., CyberLink Corp. and Global Lighting Technologies Inc., which are younger and playing important roles in their industries. By analyzing the four companies, this study concludes that： 1.A business model means the core competences interact with the costumer values at the Technology Adoption Life Cycle. A great business model means it’s a positive cycle of interaction and the positive cycle can help companies stand firmly at the Technology Adoption Life Cycle. 2.The most important costumer value is Over Cost per Unity (C1).