電視新聞置入性行銷雖是新興現象，但在新聞界蔓延已成為普遍現象，成為影響新聞產製的重要力量。電視新聞置入性行銷，以較為迂迴、精心設計，與新聞內容融合一體，使消費者難以區辨到底是新聞，還是為商品廣告的行銷訊息。國內目前研究，多是探討此種行銷方式，對新聞專業與新聞工作者的影響，尚未見對閱聽人接收與影響面向的研究。是故，本研究欲探究閱聽人對於產品置入性新聞之接收評價，在溝通效果中扮演的角色。 本研究以實驗法進行，採取三因子實驗設計，為2(置入型態：顯性/隱性)*2(論點品質：強論點/弱論點)*2(產品涉入度：高涉入/低涉入)*2=8個產品置入策略組合，為避免受試者觀看不同產品的效果差異，故讓每位受試者觀看分別看高低二種產品涉入度的實驗影片，形成4個實驗組別，共邀集185位受測者參與，回收有效問卷164份，有效回收率為88.65%。　 研究結果發現，「產品置入型態」對置入性新聞溝通效果未有顯著影響。「訊息論點品質」是影響產品置入性新聞的關鍵因素，對產品置入性新聞之溝通效果影響最為顯著；採取強論點訊息，能引發閱聽人較正向的接收評價，不論是訊息接受度、可信度與資訊性皆有較佳的評價，進而影響消費者對品牌的態度，對訊息的記憶程度亦有相對較佳的表現。閱聽人對「置入性行銷的既存態度」影響閱聽人接收不同論點品質的溝通效果：即置入性行銷持以高既存態度者，暴露於強論點品質之產品置入性新聞，比暴露於弱論點品質時產生更多支持性的想法、較高的記憶效果與較佳的訊息態度。 / Although being an emerging phenomenon, the product placement on TV News has spread into an universal phenomenon in the News circles, and become an important force influencing News production. With relatively roundabout and meticulous design, the Product Placement on TV News is well integrated with the News content, making consumers difficult to distinguish it from News and Marketing message of product. Present domestic researches are mainly investigating the impact of such marketing method on journalism and the News workers, but still haven’t focused on the reception and the influence of the audience. Therefore, this study is to investigate the audience’s reception comments on the Product Placemen on TV News and their roles in communication effect. This study adopts the experimentation of three-factor experimental design, which are 2 Placement Types (prominent/subtle) *2 Argument Qualities (strong /weak) *2 Product involvements (High /Low). A total of 185 participants were invited and all of them were randomized to watch the experimental films, and required to fill out the questionnaires after watching. A total of 164 effective questionnaires were returned, with a valid return rate of 88.65%. The results of this study show that the “Type of PPL” has no significant impact on the communication effect of the Product Placement on TV News. The “Message Argument Quality” is the key factor influencing the Product Placement on TV News. Using strong argument messages can trigger the audience’s relatively positive reception comments in message acceptability, News credibility and message informativeness and then impact the consumers’ attitudes towards brands. Also, it has relatively better performance on the recall degree towards messages.The audience’s existing attitudes towards the Placement Marketing impact their communication effects in receiving different argument qualities. The Placement Marketing with high existing attitudes will produce more supportive thoughts, higher recall effect and better message attitude when exposed in Product Placement on TV News of strong argument quality than that exposed in product placement news of weak argument quality.

本研究主要依據國內房地產市場的特性，以生產時間落差、預期景氣與宣告效果、以及總體經濟等三個項目為主軸，針對房地產市場的景氣現象進行探討。首先，由生產階段的生產時間落差為出發點，探討房地產景氣與政府政策衝擊對生產時間落差的影響。再來，探討房地產次市場間的互動關係，瞭解預期景氣與宣告效果對不同房地產次市場景氣的影響。最後，探討總體經濟對房地產景氣的影響。在上述理念體系下，本研究進行各項理論的推演與實證分析，所得結論說明如下： 一、房地產景氣對生產時間影響部份 本文以建照面積與使照面積數量之波動關係，分析房地產景氣對生產時間落差之影響，結果發現使照面積與建照面積間存在穩定的長期關係，但建照可能因景氣不佳而取消，此使得長期建照面積大於使照面積，且建商會視房地產景氣的變動而調整興建速度。當房地產市場景氣時，興建速度較快，不景氣時興建速度較慢，使得生產時間落差會因房地產景氣變動而有所不同。另外，建照面積與使照面積間的關係亦會因政府相關政策的改變而產生衝擊，進而改變生產時間落差的長短。 由此觀之，國內房地產市場應較無預售制度的國家有較佳的市場調整機制，不過國內房地產景氣的波動卻依然劇烈，其原因可能在於政府決策與執行有相當長的時間落差，往往造成介入市場的時機不恰當，使得政府政策不但未能發揮反景氣循環的功能，反而成為助漲、助跌的促媒。另外，建築投資業缺乏健全管理亦是可能的原因之一，造成市場良莠不齊，在未經協調而彼此競爭下，往往錯誤評估個別預期銷售額而惡性競爭所造成。 二、預期景氣與宣告效果對房地產景氣影響部份 透過不同次市場的連結，本文發現當政府政策提前宣告時，將會有明顯的宣告效果產生，使得建商雖面對節節高昇的空屋率，依然大量搶建，但建照面積的增加則會促使房價與租金下跌。當前房地產市場的長期不景氣，政府未充分掌握房地產市場的景氣波動，並審慎評估政策的可能衝擊可說是問題的關鍵。此也意味，若政府日後真有必要再對房地產市場實施類似管制措施時，實應於事前進行謹慎的評估，並慎選實施的時機。 其次，市場參與者的預期在市場運作過程中扮演相當重要的角色，對於不同次市場景氣之影響亦不相同，當預期資本利得愈高時，會使房價上漲，但租金卻會減少，因為屋主願意以相對較低的租金將房屋出租，並由長期的資本利得中獲得補償，此可解釋為何國內長期租金與房價比長期偏低的現象。不過，近年來房地產市場面臨相當長時間的不景氣，加以921大地震對於國人傳統「有土斯有財」的理財觀念應有相當程度的衝擊，在預期資本利得相當微薄、甚至為負的情況下，未來租金可能回到較合理的水準。 三、總體經濟度房地產景氣之影響部份 本文檢視總體經濟變數對不同地區房地產景氣的影響，發現不論台北市或台北縣的預售屋房價與貨幣供給、空屋數、建照面積等變數均具有長期均衡關係存在，表示房地產景氣會因總體經濟變數與房地產市場本身供需變化而調整，但在考量結構變遷下，預售屋房價與建照面積間之關係已有所改變，意味未來在分析兩者間之關係時必須更加慎重。 其次，空屋數對於預售屋房價的影響彈性相對大於貨幣供給以及建照面積的影響，且相關變數對於台北市預售屋房價的影響相對大於台北縣，但台北縣預售屋房價消弭均衡誤差的速度較台北市為快，此乃因台北市住宅供給與需求彈性相對較小，當其他影響變數發生變動時，其預售屋房價受到的影響相對較大，故一旦偏離均衡時，必須花費較長的時間來調整。此結果亦顯示，要解決房地產市場長期的不景氣，從消化空餘屋著手最為有效。另外，不論台北市或台北縣預售屋房價與其他變數間的短期領先或落後關係並不明顯，此可能是因房地產市場自1986-1990年這一波房地產景氣後，已產生結構性變遷所造成。 / This dissertation consisted of three relative essays about real estate cycles. The first paper explores the influence of the real estate cycles on construction lags by analyzing the fluctuations of total floor areas of building permits and usage permits as a reflection of construction lags. Results support that a long-run equilibrium is existing between them; however, building permits may be dropped during a downswing market. In addition, the duration of construction lags is affected by changes in the real estate cycles and by the impacts of policies.　During a time of strong market, the duration of construction lags is cut shorter and is extended when the market is depressed. The second paper presents a simultaneous equation to examine how expectation of market participants and preannouncement of zoning control influence real estate cycles through three housing submarkets: rental market, sales market, and new construction market. One interesting finding is that, before the government announced a change in its zoning policy, builders constructed at maximum capacity despite fact that the real estate market was already depressed. Such construction only worsens the real estate market condition and extends the duration of depressed period. Another interesting finding is that the expected real estate cycles have different effects on rent and housing price. Although high capital gain expectations drive up the housing price, rent continues to decrease. A high vacancy rate, although decreasing the housing price, has little influence on construction starts. The last paper examines the long-term relationships between real estate cycles and macroeconomic variables by using cointegration test and error correction model. I found that both housing price of Taipei City and Taipei County do have long-term relationships with money supply, vacant houses, and new construction, but when considering market structure change, the relationship between housing price and new construction will change. I also found that the vacant houses have more influence on housing price than that of money supply and new construction, and the influences of these three variables on housing price are more sensitive in Taipei City than Taipei County. These results reflect the market structure of Taipei City and Taipei County is different, and the importance to solve vacant houses problem. Another surprise finding is that short-term lead or lag relationships among these variables are not significant. One possible reason is the structure change of real estate market after 1990.

網路「線上促銷」，以鼓動線上購買，或是提供給網路使用者各式各樣優惠的誘因贈獎訊息來吸引點選，在網路行銷及廣告的運用上，越來越頻繁。而根據網友點選廣告意願的調查，指出約有57-65%的網路使用者願意點選「贈獎、誘因式」的廣告；而包括最吸引網友點選的廣告訊息，以「優惠折扣」居首，佔69%。 誘因贈獎的風行，使得網友上網就往好康去，而有「免費（FREE）」字樣的廣告的點選率也的確算是一枝獨秀。但也有人質疑，這種以「誘因」與「贈獎」做為廣告訴求，是否會使得網路廣告效果落入誘因與贈獎的陷阱中，而無實質的廣告傳播效益？ 因此本研究將以網路橫幅廣告為研究主體，探討利用誘因、贈獎做為主要廣告訴求，從MOA的概念出發，探討該類型網路廣告效果，其中包含討混有告效果研究，涵括目標對象、對廣告整體一般態度、誘因線索與主產品的互補程度等概念。 又因為網路環境與網路行為的多變，使得網路理論的驗證與現象的觀察無法分割，本研究將以線上實驗的設計方法，除了驗證變項之間的因果關係之外，亦詳加記錄了線上實驗法過程中，可能發生的問題點，提供未來相關網路研究、實驗的參考。

「推敲可能性模式」中提到的「動機」因素，指的是個人產生的動機強弱；但若從心理學的觀點出發，我們可在動機心理學的相關文獻中發現：動機的種類所帶來的不同程度影響，則是非常重要的。因此，本研究希望把「推敲可能性模式」中的「動機」因素做延伸、補充，探討不同種類的動機因素如何影響廣告效果。期待能為「推敲可能性模式」帶來嶄新的討論空間。 以往在學術研究中，廣告效果的相關研究多從產品類別、廣告音樂、一般廣告訴求（理性訴求、感性訴求、性訴求、幽默訴求或恐懼訴求等）或消費者的人格特質與涉入程度等來探究廣告效果。事實上研究者認為：廣告效果更應與廣告訊息內容的呈現息息相關。廣告中呈現不同的需求或慾望刺激，是否使得廣告的說服效果產生差異？這樣的問題意識正好可以與上述關於「推敲可能性模式」的討論相呼應，研究者期望藉由這樣初探性的實證研究，瞭解廣告訊息中隱含的動機需求對廣告說服效果的影響。 從Maslow提出的觀點，我們可以說，各種需求之間，有先後順序與高低層次之分別，人類與生俱來的匱乏需求必須先被滿足，但Maslow提醒人們不要過於拘泥看待每一需求的順序；況且，這個社會中有許多人，他們絕大多數的匱乏需求大多得到了滿足（莊耀嘉，1990）；Maslow更指出，隨著需求階層的上升，受到滿足的人數百分比是逐漸減少的（彭運石，2001）。以台灣目前的物質水準來說，大多數的人多半是處在匱乏需求已獲得某種程度的滿足、正轉而追求更高層次之理想實現的情況。 依此推論，多數人在面對「匱乏訴求」取向的廣告訊息時，符合「資訊處理節省原理」(Haines,1974)的論點，消費者產生的深思可能性較低；在面對「存在訴求」取向的廣告訊息時，則符合「認知反應理論」之觀點，所產生的深思可能性較高。又根據「推敲可能性模式」（ELM）：當深思可能性高，中央路徑的說服特別有效；當深思可能性低時，邊陲路徑的說服效果較佳。因此，本研究衍生推論：消費者面對「生理層面匱乏訴求」的訊息時，因廣告刺激的是匱乏需求，在深思可能性較低的情況下，採用邊陲路徑說服方式之效果較佳。消費者面對「心理層面匱乏訴求」的訊息，因廣告刺激的是匱乏需求，同樣也是深思可能性較低的情況下，採用邊陲路徑說服方式之效果也較佳。相較之下，消費者面對「存在訴求」取向的訊息時，深思可能性較高，若配合中央路徑的說服方式，應有較佳效果。 研究結果分為兩大部分：主要自變項與依變項之因果關係假設檢驗、動機訴求類別與資訊路徑之關係討論。本研究主要探討動機訴求之廣告類別，在不同路徑之設計之下，所導致的廣告效果差異。統計方法上主要應用單因子變異數分析（ANOVA）與簡單線性迴歸分析（Simple Linear Regression）。檢定研究中主要自變項：中央、邊陲路徑訊息設計方式，在五個依變項：整體注意力、對主要訊息的理解度、對主要訊息的記憶度、對廣告的態度及對品牌的態度等的差異情況。

本文研究目的，在於探討台灣資訊科技（information technology）產業廠商的研發資本存量及產業內（intra-industry）研發資本存量的外溢效果（spillover effect）對於生產技術效率的影響。文中所採用的資料，主要來自於台灣經濟新報資料庫及廠商的財務報表，利用1997-2003年402家於台灣證券交易所上市及上櫃廠商的財務資料，並對Battese and Coelli（1995）所提出隨機邊界生產函數（stochastic frontier production function）與技術無效率效果（technical inefficiency effect）模型，同時進行實證估計。本文主要研究發現為，不論是以整體IT產業的廠商來看，或是分別就電腦硬體產業、半導體產業、通訊產業及光電產業的廠商來看，產業內R&D資本的外溢對於廠商的生產技術效率有正向的影響。但廠商自身的R&D資本存量對於其生產技術效率卻無顯著的影響，而軟體產業的廠商，卻現負面影響。另外，台灣IT產業廠商亦存在著技術進步的情形，但其技術效率則隨著時間而遞減。再則，本文研究也發現，台灣的IT產業中，半導體產業的廠商在生產技術效率方面表現最好，光電產業的廠商則最差。此外，上市廠商的技術效率較上櫃廠商佳。而有在科學園區設立工廠的廠商，除了半導體產業的廠商之外，其他四個產業的在科學工業園區設立工廠的廠商生產技術效率與未於科學園區設立工廠的廠商並無顯著差異。 / This paper aims to investigate the influence of and intra-industry spillovers of R&D spending on firm’s technical efficiency of production in Taiwan’s information technology (IT) industry. Firm-level panel data of 402 firms in IT industry from 1997~2003 provided by Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ) data bank and the stochastic frontier production function and technical inefficiency function proposed by Battese and Coelli (1995) are adopted in this study. The primary finding of this study is that the intra-industry spillovers of R&D spending on firm’s technical efficiency exist in Taiwan’s IT industry. This finding also exists in sub-industries of IT industry: computer hardware industry, semi-conductor industry, software industry, telecom industry, and photoelectric industry. However, influence of R&D capital on firm’s technical efficiency is insignificant in whole IT industry in Taiwan. Besides, in the period, there are technical advancements in firms of whole IT industry. Finally, the performance of the IT firms inside the Science Park is insignificant better than the firms outside in terms of technical efficiency, but excluding semi-conductor firms.

本研究採用門檻迴歸模型 (Threshold Autoregression Model)，試圖找出董監事等內部人之申報轉讓比率、持股比率及質押比率等門檻值，進而分析門檻值以內及以外，指標對於代理變數：融資成長率、營收成長率以及本益比與加權指數報酬率的影響程度與方向。本研究實證結果發現： 一、在申報轉讓比率方面： 當申報轉讓比率低於門檻值，存在所謂的群聚效果。當申報轉讓比率高於門檻值時，市場動能與加權指數報酬率無顯著關係，投資人於此階段進行投資決策時應該要謹慎小心。 二、在持股比率方面： 在持股比率低於門檻值時，加權指數報酬率對於前期營收成長率表現的修正幅度較大，意謂著董監事等內部人根據其對未來營收資訊掌握的優勢，反應其對營收資訊的真實性，而藉由持股轉讓的行為，使加權指數大幅度的修正。 三、在質押比率方面： 不管高於或低於門檻值，均無法利用董監事等內部人質押比率為門檻變數來分析本益比效果對加權指數報酬率的影響。造成其檢定失效的原因，可能是樣本小且模型受到極端值的影響所造成。

本研究探討於連續時間下，跨國投資者於匯率可預測下之最適投資決策問題。我們假設隨著時間改變，利用可預測之資訊動態修正投資決策。首先我們假設匯率可經由利率過程預測，探討相對風險趨避(CRRA)之投資經理人於跨國投資時之避險需求。研究方法是結合Cox與Huang (1989)之平賭方法與Lioui與Poncet (2003)於跨國投資所建構之財務模型。本研究歸納學習效果會影響匯率期望報酬，利用利率資訊會修正匯率過程之風險市場價值。最適投資決策因此受到調整因子之影響。因此投資人必須依照過濾進來的財務訊息(利率對匯率的改變)動態的調控持有之投資部位。最後，理論結果顯示投資部位必須針對可預測性下匯率避險效果作調整。 / In this study, we explore the effects of uncertainty about the exchange rate predictability on international portfolio choice in a continuous time setting. Uncertainty regarding to the predictive relation affects the optimal portfolio choice through dynamic learning, and leads to a state-dependent relation between the optimal portfolio choice and the investment time horizon. First we investigate the hedge demands in international portfolio management for constant relative risk averse investors where the exchange rate can be predicted by the change of interest rate. Then our approach is implemented through the use of the martingale methodology developed by Cox and Huang (1989) as proposed in the work of Lioui and Poncet (2003). Since the learning processes influence the premium of exchange rate movements, the crucial changes lie in the difference of market price of risk of the interest rate movements to the updated exchange rates. The constructed optimal investment strategy is influenced by the adjusted factors. Hence the investors should dynamically rebalance their holding portfolio according to the filtering mechanism. Finally, the theoretical results show that the adjustment for the optimal weights are required to reflect the prediction effects in hedging the exchange rate risks.

近年來，隨著中國大陸經濟快速的成長，中國大陸房地產市場也隨之蓬勃發展，然而，近期中國大陸房地產價格的節節高漲，產生了房地產過熱的警訊，而區域間房地產價格的差異與不均，也成為各地區經濟發展的重要阻礙。所以，如何合理的調控房地產價格，使房地產市場能穩定成長並與經濟發展相輔相成，成為中國大陸中央政府必須持續關注與適時妥善處理的問題。 本文運用1999年至2010年中國大陸31個省市地區商品房平均銷售價格和影響房價的經濟相關變數的追蹤資料，運用雙因子固定效果模型進行實證研究。研究結果發現：中國大陸各地區財政分權程度對各地區房地產價格為非線性的關係，呈現U型的曲線。意即，存在一個財政分權的臨界值可以使房價達到最小的情況。建議中央政府應透過調整各地區的財政分權程度，來避免因財政分權不均而產生財政資源不均問題，造成房地產價格的波動。並加強對地方政府的財政預算與財政收入的監督與管制，以抑止「土地財政」的行為。 / With the economic growth, the real estate market is booming in China recently. But the overheating real estate price and the difference of real estate price between region and region become the important impediment to regional economic development in China. Therefore, the central government how to control the real estate price is an immense problem. By using the panel data of average selling price of commercialize buildings and the economic variables of 31cities in China between 1999 and 2010, the study uses two-way fixed effects model to investigate the effect of fiscal decentralization on the real estate price in China. The empirical analysis’ result shows that the fiscal decentralization provides a non-linear effect on the real estate price, it presents the U-shaped curve. In other words, there are a degree of fiscal decentralization can make the real estate price to reach the minimum. According to results, we propose to take some policies. The central government should adjust the degree of fiscal decentralization in each region, in order to avoid the local government financial problem to lead to rise the real estate price.

本研究主要探討台灣上市櫃公司從事首次現金增資之決策受何種公司特徵所影響，並進一步探討進行其首次現金增資的宣告效果影響因素。 本研究針對1981年至2010年共30年期間於台灣上市上櫃之公司其首次現金增資之情形做為探討對象，採用Cox-proportional Hazard Regression檢定影響上市櫃公司進行首次現金增資時程之公司特徵。實證結果顯示，營收成長率越高、規模越大且獲利能力較差的公司會傾向越快進行首次現金增資。同時也針對上市櫃年度其市場情形加以探討，發現於市場處於熱市時上市櫃的公司傾向越快進行首次現金增資，顯示市場時機也會影響公司進行首次現金增資的決策。此外，對其首次現金增資之宣告效果進行迴歸分析同時以Heckman Two-Stage Model方法考慮樣本選擇偏誤之修正，結果發現規模越大的公司宣告效果越差而負債比率較大的公司宣告效果越佳。然而上市櫃後進行首次現金增資之時程與其增資宣告效果間則無顯著關係。 / This study examines how fast companies have their first seasonal equity offerings after their IPOs and further analyses the announcement effects of first SEOs. First, we adopt Cox-proportional Hazard Regression Model to see what firm characteristics make IPO firms decide to conduct first SEOs shortly after their IPOs. Using a sample of IPO firms in Taiwan from 1981 to 2010, we find firms that are larger, less profitable and higher growth potential would conduct their first SEOs faster. Also, market timing plays an important role for SEO decisions. Moreover, the announcement effect of their first SEOs shows that elapsed time to conduct first SEOs after IPOs has no influence on the cumulated abnormal returns. By correcting sampling bias, Heckman Two-Stage Model is adopted to reveal better explanation of the results.

本論文的研究主軸為本國市場效果的實證研究, 文章除驗證新貿易理論對創意商品的適用性, 並解析貿易成本與需求規模對本國市場效果的交互影響與其間的非線性關係。實證資料以經創意商品(creative goods)貿易為例。選擇創意商品,除因其具有文化創意特色,可歸為異質產品並且可凸顯無形貿易成本的影響, 且此類商品根據國際商品統一分類代碼(Harmonized system code ; HS code) 六位碼編組而成, 商品分類可謂細緻, 可避免如Schumacher and Siliverstovs (2006)以及Hallak (2010) 指出以總和商品可能相互抵消效果而致的合成謬誤。並且根據UNCTAD(2008) , 此類商品受景氣波動的干擾較少。由於全球創意商品貿易以經濟合作開發組織(The rganization for economic cooperation and development;OECD) 國家為主流, 且OECD 國家創意商品貿易具有產業內貿易特性, 故而樣本國家以OECD 國家為主, 並於林德效果檢測時擴及至全球創意商品貿易。 實證估計式以Hsu et al. (2012) 推導的引力模型結構式為理論基礎, 加入一個由貿易成本與相對需求組成的非線性本國市場效果設定項,驗證本國市場效果的相關假說。此一本國市場效果設定項除具有理論基礎之外, 並具有實證意涵與對應的假說檢定, 可為實證工作提供重要基石。 估計式中除加入例行的需求規模、貿易成本以及控制貿易成本對商品流動的多邊阻力(multilateral resistance; MR)外,並加入需求與貿易成本的非線性交互作用項。相較過去文獻如Feenstra et al. (1998, 2001) 或Hanson and Xiang (2004) 側重需求與貿易型態關係的確認, 加入此項不 但可以匡正實證估計是錯誤設定造成估計偏誤, 得以正確驗證本國市場效果, 並且能解析本國市場效果成因的作用機制與政策意涵。 實證過程圍繞兩個命題: 命題1 : 如果本國市場效果存在, 但引力模型忽略或未控制本國市場效果, 將使估計產生偏誤。 命題2 : 相對需求與貿易成本對本國市場效果具有非線性影響關係。相對需求增加, 本國市場效果將強化。相對需求對本國市場效果的邊際影響, 會隨相對需求上升及貿易成本下降而遞減。貿易成本增加, 本國市場效果將弱化。隨著貿易成本愈高其對本國市場效果的邊際影響力遞減。 根據2000年至2005年OECD創意商品貿易資料的實證結果,除確認本國市場效果顯著外,各項相關假說檢定並與Hsu et al. (2012) 的理論預期一致。包括實證估計式忽略本國市場效果設定項, 將使估計結果產生偏誤; 貿易成本、相對需求對本國市場效果以顯著的非線性方式交互影響本國市場效果。而由比較靜態分析的實務案例, 再次確認推論與實證結果的一致性。 為進一步檢測命題2 , 確認相對需求與貿易成本對本國市場效果的非線性影響關係。在此以貿易雙方的相對需求與相對貿易強度進行分量迴歸(quantile regression model ; QR) 估計, 捕捉不同貿易強度相對需求的非線性變化特徵, 並檢定相對需求的邊際影響是否隨不同分量而有顯著的差異。在此, 除創意商品貿易資料外, 並加入OECD 會員國的國際貿易商品統計(international trade by commodity Statistics;ITCS) 國際商品統一分類編碼(HS Code) 二位碼的製造業商品貿易資料為估計樣本。實證結果再次應證相對需求與貿易成本對本國市場效果的非線性影響關係, 並且不論是根據分量迴歸檢定結果, 或以估計係數的信賴區間圖示, 都顯示不同分量下, 相對需求對本國市場效果的邊際影響確實存在非線性影響關係, 並且貿易強度與相對需求間呈現正向的變化關係, 約有90% 以上的商品類別, 相對需求的邊際變動軌跡呈現遞增型式, 符合理論預期的顯著非線性變化關係。 最後以偏好相似理論Linder (1961) ,即林德假說(Linder hppothesis) ; 以需求結構因素解析國際產業內貿易之可能原因。林德假說提出重疊需求(overlapping demand) 的概念, 認為影響一國需求結構的主要因素是所得水準, 即一國的人均所得水準決定了該國特定的偏好模式, 若兩國之間收入水準相似, 則兩國偏好模式可能愈相似, 需求結構也將愈相近, 也就是說重疊需求的量愈大, 從而兩國間貿易量也就愈大。反之, 兩國所得水準相差越大, 需求結構差異也就越大, 從而相互間貿易強度也就越低。本文以Hallak (2010)之一般均衡理論與期建構的實證結構式為基礎, 以UNCTAD(2008) 全球及OECD 國家創意商品貿易資料配合分量迴歸估計, 結果顯示林德假說確實適用於解釋OECD 以及全球創意商品貿易現象, 並且根據貿易流量高低之不同分量係數檢定結果也顯示林德效果確實存有差異, 不同分量下林德效果的邊際效果確實有顯著差異。 / This thesis proposes and extends theory-based gravity equations to test the presence of the ‘home market effect’ in the global trade in creative goods. Traditional neoclassical models based on comparative advantage suggest that, all else equal, a country with idiosyncratically strong demand for a good will result in it being an importer of that good. Contrary to traditional trade theory, the home market effect emphasizes the advantages of a large home market as a foundation for exports of a good. The HME is the most obvious characteristic of new trade theory. The home market effect is caused by increasing returns to scale and trade costs. When it is more profitable for a firm to operate in a single country because of increasing returns to scale, the firm will base itself in the country where most of its products are consumed in order to minimize trade cost costs. The home market effect implies a link between market size and exports. Here, we imply the framework derived from Hsu’s (2012) model, in which an HME term is appended to the traditional gravity model to capture the home market effect. It is different from Feenstra (1998, 2001) and Hanson (2004) who focused on the linkage between the relative size and the direction of trade. The HME term consists of both the relative market size of the domestic market versus the relative proximity to foreign markets, trade costs and their interactions. It means that except for the traditional gravity equation that includes regular variables such as market size, trade cost and multilateral resistance, which are used to control the obstruction of trade costs on goods traded as the regressors, the extended gravity model appends an HME term which is based on a theoretical foundation that can guide the hypothesis testing and own its empirical content, and can provide a fundamental guideline for empirical study as well as quantitative scenarios. The extended model can reinvestigate the adaptations to the new trade theory for the trade in creative goods, and analyze and infer the intersection and non-linear relationship for the trade cost and relative market size. We apply the bilateral trade in creative goods in OECD countries as an empirical case study. The creative goods have certain characteristics. The first is that they contain creative and cultural features which can be treated as differentiated goods so that they can withstand the impact of the trade cost. They consist of an HS code of 6 digits, and the classification is sophisticated so that it can avert the fallacious synthesis of Schumacher (2006) and Hallak (2010). Besides, the creative goods fluctuate smoothly as the business cycle is depressed (UNCTAD, 2008). The empirical issues surround two hypotheses: Hypothesis One: There will be biased estimates if there exists an HME, but it has been ignored or has been not controlled well in empirical studies. Hypothesis Two: There exists a non-linear relationship between relative market size and trade costs with the HME. A rise in the relative market size will strengthen the HME and the marginal effect of the relative market size will decline if the relative market size increases or the trade cost decreases. Trade cost increases will weaken the HME and the marginal effect of the trade cost will go up if the trade cost falls. The estimation results of applying the data for the OECD trade in creative goods from 2000 to 2005 show that the HME exists and thus confirm the hypotheses mentioned above. In order to investigate Hypothesis Two more precisely, we apply quantile regression (QR) to re-examine and capture the non-linear relationship between the relative market size and trade intensity. Furthermore, we adopt bootstrapping, a non-parametric approach used to construct statistical inferences, to test whether the marginal effect of the relative market size on trade intensity will be significantly different for different percentiles. One advantage of QR, relative to OLS (ordinary least squares), is that the QR estimates are more robust against outliers in the response measurements. However, the main attraction of quantile regression goes beyond that. In practice, we often prefer using different measures of central tendency and statistical dispersion to obtain a more comprehensive analysis of the relationship between variables. QR has been attributed to the complexity of interactions between different factors leading to data with an unequal variation in one variable for different ranges of another variable. We employ UNCTAD (2008) trade in creative goods and ITCS databanks for the classification of manufacturing goods at the HS code 2-digit level for OECD countries. The results support the non-linear relationship between relative market size and trade intensity, and confirm that the marginal effects of relative market size on trade intensity are obviously different and show they are positively related, so that the higher the ratio of relative market size, the greater that the intensity of bilateral trade will be. Contrary to the HME focus on the supply approach, the Linder hypothesis is based on the demand approach used to examine the intra-industry trade. The Linder hypothesis is a conjecture based on trade patterns, that proposes that the more similar the demand structures of countries are, the more the countries will trade with each other. Furthermore, international trade will also be vigorous if there are similar demand structures between two countries, even if they possess similar factor endowments and technologies. We also apply the data for trade in creative goods but extend the sample from the OECD countries to the global countries. Based on the general equilibrium framework of Hallak (2010), we use Newey-West estimators and QR as empirical methodology. Examinations of the Linder hypothesis have led to the observation of a “Linder effect” that is consistent with the hypothesis. Econometric tests of the hypothesis usually serve as a proxy for the demand structure in a country based on its per capita income (per capita GDP which is denoted as yit, where i stands for the country index, and t is for time). It is convenient to assume that the closer are the levels of per capita GDP, the closer will be the consumer preferences. Here, we use the gaps in income between countries such as (ln yit-ln yjt), ln |yit-yjt| and product in income such as ln (yit*yjt) as Linder effects. Neither the results in the income gap or income product show that the Linder hypothesis explains the trade in creative goods for the OECD and Global countries well, and the marginal effects for the Linder effect for different levels of trade intensity are dissimilar. Thus the larger the income gap, the more sensitive is the trade intensity.