本文立基於Merton(1974)或有求償權評價法及Leland(1994)內生破產資本結構模型上，加入次順位債券的考量，建立一個連續時間資本結構分析模型，量化的資本結構可作為企業融資之決策依據。內生破產行為與風險移轉行為都是股東與債權人之間可能產生的代理問題，本文的模型不但分析這兩種代理問題，更計算其所產生的代理成本。由模擬的結果發現內生破產成本雖然不大，但是其對無風險利率及公司非槓桿價值的波動度卻是非常的敏感。在本文的模型下，只要債務契約不能重新訂立，次順位債券的發行永遠都會降低優先債務的價值。在本模型中次順位債券的風險貼水比優先債券的風險貼水高；但是本文發現不管是優先債券或是次順位債券的風險貼水，當公司接近宣告破產時，公司非槓桿價值的波動度對兩種債券風險貼水的影響出現高風險低報酬的現象，可能的解釋理由如下：當公司接近宣告破產時，公司非槓桿價值波動度的增加使破產可能性提高，進而使風險貼水減少的間接力量大於波動度增加直接使風險貼水上升的力量。 / Based on Merton(1974) and Leland(1994), we construct a continuous-time capital structure model with subordinated debt. Quantitative results may serve the guidance of financial policy of the firm. Both endogenous bankruptcy and risk shifting behaviors are the agency problems between the equityholders and debtholders. Based on our model, the agency problems is considered and the agency costs are calculated. From the result of simulation, endogenous bankruptcy agency cost is small but sensitive to the volatility of unlevered asset value of the firm. Under renegotiation-proof, the senior debt is harmed by the issuance of the subordinated debt in our model. The risk premium of the subordinate debt is higher than that of the senior debt is confirmed by the model, however, when the firm is near bankruptcy, the behavior of "high risk high return" of both debts is reversed. The reason for the junk bond behavior may be explained as the negative effect of risk premiums due to the increase of the probability of bankruptcy is higher than the positive effect of the greater risk caused by higher volatility.

確定給付制的退休金計畫，退休金成本提存的適當與否，關係到基金長期的財務健全及未來員工權益的保障，而我國公務人員退撫基金關係到廣大公務人員的權益，也影響到政府的財政支出，所以對公務人員退撫基金更有精算的必要，以確保提撥率之適當而不至於對政府財政增加額外負擔。 本論文從人口面的角度出發，以我國公務人員退休撫卹基金為實證分析之研究對象，探討人口面的假設對於公務人員退撫基金提撥率，未來各項給付支出的影響，包括從經驗資料中取樣，探討大小不同的樣本建立之服職表，於計算提撥率的差異，並利用混成模型建立新進成員假設，以開放團體模擬基金成員結構，在某些固定假設之下，模擬未來五十年的基金資產與現金流量情況。 根據本研究結果指出，利用不同取樣所建構的服職表，計算出之提撥率差異甚大，顯示小型的退休金計畫並不適宜以自身的經驗資料作為精算評價的基礎。另外，以常態分佈的混成模型建立公務人員新進假設，在人數設限成員群體的假設下作開放團體模擬的結果，顯示公務人員年齡結構在未來有逐漸老化的趨勢，在本文所採的假設下，基金資產將先增後減而於民國121年破產。在現行的公務人員退休撫卹制度下，要避免基金破產之情況發生，唯有提高提撥率、提高基金資產報酬率、或壓低薪資成長率。 第一章 緒論 第一節 研究動機與目的 第二節 研究範圍與限制 第三節 研究架構與內容 第二章 退休金精算考慮之因素 第一節 退休基金精算系統的概念及文獻回顧 第二節 精算假設 第三節 精算成本法 第三章 基金成員結構分析的理論基礎 第一節 服職表的編製 壹、 模型建立 貳、 修勻方法 參、 程式演算過程 第二節 混成參數模型的建構 第三節 基金成員新進參數模型的建立 第四節 基金成員新進、脫退隨機過程 第四章 公務人員退撫基金精算模擬 第一節 公務人員退撫基金給付規定 第二節 公務人員退撫基金精算評價系統簡介 第三節 公務人員退撫基金精算評價之實證 壹、 取樣差異對於提撥率的影響 貳、 開放團體模擬基金成員結構和財務預估 第五章 結論與建議 第一節 結論 第二節 對後續研究的建議 附錄A：估計粗脫率之程式 附錄B：修勻程式(Whittaker法) 附錄C：估計常態混成模型參數之程式 附錄D：公務人員新進成員年齡、職等分佈模擬之程式 附錄E-1：服職表1 附錄E-2：服職表2 附錄E-3：服職表3 附錄E-4：服職表4 附錄E-5：服職表5 附錄E-6：服職表6 附錄E-7：服職表7 / The adequacy of the plan contribution for a defined benefit pension scheme is directly related to its financial soundness and the plan member’s benefits. Due to uncertainty of the plan’s turnover, the service table plays an important role in actuarial valuation and cash flow projection. In this study, Taiwan public employees retirement system is studied to monitor the solvency issue due to bias in selecting the service tables. Tai-PERS is designed to provide retirement and ancillary benefits to 271,215 government employees. Its financial soundness is especially vital to the government annual balance. The plan contribution and projected cash flows of Tai-PERS are investigated using various sampling results. The distribution of the new entrants is assumed to follow the mixture model to describe the recruiting results. Then dynamic simulations under the open group assumption are performed to predict the future fund assets and cash flows. The results show significant differences in employing various service tables. Hence selecting proper demographic assumptions is particular important in pension valuation. Under our approach, the workforce of Tai-PERS is aging given the current plan population. Based on the given scenario, the projected plan assets increase and then decrease to be insolvent in 2032. Some interesting results are also discussed.

本論文包含兩篇獨立但主旨相關的文章， 目的均在探討融資契約與廠商投資的關聯，以分析融資契約的實質效果。第一篇文章「股價資訊外部性與新投資之採行」研究權益證券(股票)集訊、揭訊功能的實質效益，我們由股價資訊公開所產生的外部效果，分析股價資訊效率性與廠商投資效率之間的關聯。在1.眾多異質廠商，2.投資具實質選擇權(real options)特性的假設下，內生化廠商與股市交易者的資訊取得決策，發現1. 均衡時廠商的投資與資訊取得決策取決於廠商技術水準與股價效率性之高低：高股價效率性時，無廠商取得新資訊，皆根據股價判斷投資，低股價效率性時，僅較低技術廠商根據股價資訊投資。2. 股價有額外的資訊揭露效果：由於廠商僅能獲得新資訊的部份效益，且廠商利用資訊有機會成本，將投資證券化可提高新資訊被揭露的可能性，使得資訊可被充份利用，提昇投資效率。3. 股價資訊可提增投資效率，增加廠商期望報酬，但當體系平均技術水準落後，新資訊的實質效益低落時，股價資訊公開的外部淨效益亦趨薄弱，故經濟發展初期，股市資訊公開的外部效益相對不重要。 第二篇文章「抵押品、財務槓桿與廠商投資」研究借貸契約中，抵押品舒緩借貸限制的作用，及其可能產生的實質效果。我們採用Williamson(1986,1987)的狀態確認成本模型(costly state verification model)，在該訊息不對稱模型，廠商向外融資面臨借貸限制，僅較高自有資金廠商可獲融資。當借貸市場資金相當寬鬆，資金供給恆大於資金需求，資金成本(無風險利率)為一由模型外因素所決定的外生參數時，抵押融資不影響資金成本，此時抵押品具有舒緩借貸限制的作用，體系財務槓桿提高，期望查帳成本下降，投資的期望淨產出增加。若資金相對緊俏，無風險利率須由借貸市場均衡所內生決定時，長期而言，財務槓桿僅受體系資金寬鬆程度的影響，短期間抵押融資雖能提高財務槓桿，但隨槓桿之提高，資金需求增加，無風險利率上揚，在新的均衡，較低自有資金廠商投資的期望報酬下降，借貸利率上漲，反而增加其應負債務，資產狀況惡化，此即本文所欲突顯之抵押融資的潛在成本。 第一章 緒論 3 第一節 研究動機 3 第二節 研究內容與架構 5 第二章 文獻回顧 7 第一節 融資契約的功能 7 第二節 金融結構與實質經濟活動 13 第三節 股價資訊與廠商投資 18 第四節 抵押品與廠商投資 22 第三章 股價資訊外部性與新投資之採行 27 第一節 前言 27 第二節 基本模型 29 第三節 期中股市均衡與股價效率性 35 第四節 股價資訊外部效益 41 第五節 小結 46 附 錄 47 第四章 抵押品、財務槓桿與廠商投資 53 第一節 前言 53 第二節 基本模型 55 第三節 抵押融資模型-資金寬鬆時的抵押品效果 62 第四節 抵押融資模型-資金緊俏時的抵押品效果 66 第五節 小結 70 第五章 結論 72 第一節 研究限制 72 第二節 未來研究方向 77 參考文獻 79 / This dissertation collects two separate but related papers, both study the channel through which financing contracts can affect firms' investment decisions and the corresponding real effects. The first paper " Informational Externality of Stock Prices and Firms' New Investment Decisions" analyzes what real benefits the information acquisition and signaling function of stocks can produce. From the viewpoint of informational externality, stock prices may disclose some valuable information beneficial to firms' investment decisions. Under the assumptions of " heterogeneous technology" and "new investment as a real option", this paper finds 1. Firms' investment and information acquisition decisions are determined both by their own technology level and stock prices efficiency. With high price efficiency, no firms acquire information directly, all make investment decisions based on stock prices. With low price efficiency, most firms acquire information directly, only few low-tech firms make decisions according to stock prices. 2. Stock prices have additional signaling effect. Firms can ony get half benefits of new information, besides they have opportunity costs in using information. As a result, stock prices can enhance the possibility of information disclosure, improving investment efficiency. 3. When the economy is underdeveloped and the real benefit of new information is small, the net benefit produced by informational externality will be tiny. The stock prices externality effect is thus comparatively unimportant at the beginning stage of economy. The second paper " Collateral, Financial Leverage and Firms' Investment"analyzes the constraints-smoothing function of collateral and its real effects. By adopting Williamson's costly state verification model(1986,1987), I find that with this specific asymmetric information structure, there are financing constraints in capital markets, only firms whose own capital inputs are higher above some level can get borrowed capital. The question is " Can offering collateral smooth this kind of financing constraints?" In markets with abundant capital where capital supply always exceeds demand, capital cost(riskless interest rate)will be an exdogenously-determined parameter which won't be affected by collateral financing. In this scenario, collateral can smooth financing constraints, increase financial leverage and improve the net expected return of investment. On the contrary, if capital is not so abnudant that the capital cost should be determined endogenously by capital market equilibrium, then in the long run this economy's financial leverage depends only on the relative abundance of capital. Though collateral financing can increase financial leverage in the short run, as capital demand increases, capital cost will also increase. This will offset the initial smoothing effect of collateral. After full adjustment of capital cost, at the new equilibrium the financial leverage remains unchanged. However, the expected return of firms with lower own capital inputs become smaller, and their borrowing rates become higher which mean they have heavier debt burden and less net worth at the new equilibrium.

現行有關逃漏稅研究的國內外文獻，無論在理論推導或實證分析上，多集 中於非法的租稅逃漏（tax evasion）上，而忽略了另一種合法的減少稅 負的方法：租稅規避（tax avoidance）。本文乃將 Falkinger & Walther (1991) 獎懲並行的制度與傳統的租稅逃避（tax aversion）理 論相結合，而以較嚴謹的方式分析聯合的個人租稅逃漏與租稅規避的選擇 行為，即所謂的租稅逃避行為。本文共分為四章十節，略述如下：第一章 為緒論，分為三節，分別說明研究動機與目的、研究範圍與方法及章節安 排。第二章為文獻回顧，分為三節，以國、內外文獻為探討單元，分別依 時間順序及研究範圍與方法，針對租稅逃漏、租稅規避與租稅逃避聯合決 策行為等三個領域的文獻作假設分析與結論整理，最後則做一小結。第三 章為獎懲並行的租稅逃避理論（ A Mixed Penalty- Reward Tax Aversion Theory ），分為三節，第一節介紹獎懲並行的租稅逃避理論， 主要分成基本假設、模型設立、比較靜態分析和加入獎勵因素後的影響四 部份來討論。第二節乃以獎懲並行的租稅逃避模型與前章中所述較具代表 性的逃、避稅理論模型加以比較。最後則作一小結。第四章為結論，僅一 節。由於另一租稅減少途徑──租稅規避──的存在改變了許多僅討論租 稅逃漏文獻的結論。本文主要的結論是，除了查獲率和邊際懲罰率的變動 對申報所得和避稅所得佔總逃避所得的份額有明確的正向影響外，其他相 關變數如總所得、邊際稅率和邊際避稅成本的變動所造成的影響均不明確 ；而邊際獎勵率的變動對申報所得的影響亦無法確定，然其對避稅所得佔 總逃避稅所得的份額卻造成（反直觀的）負面的效果。此外，提高獎勵率 是否提高或降低其他變數變動的效果，其答案亦無法肯定。這些發現表 示 Falkinger & Walther (1991) 對於採用獎勵制度的優點似乎有誇大之 嫌。

消費者滿意與顧客忠誠一直都是行銷學術研究的重點之一。過去研究指出，如果產品或服務的表現能夠符合顧客的先前期望，顧客便會感到滿意，而滿意的顧客，會提升他們對品牌的忠誠。但在現今科技發達、資訊複雜的市場中，顧客的滿意並不一定會轉變成忠誠。而事實上研究也發現，留住現有顧客所能帶給公司的利潤往往比吸收新顧客來得高。隨著消費者需求不斷提升，對產品的認知也越來越清楚，消費者瞭解如何在成本的考量下，替自己創造最高的效用。因此，光是滿意的顧客顯然是不夠的，可能還是無法保證顧客的再惠顧行為，進而增加公司的利潤。相信不論對行銷學界或是實務應用上，深入瞭解顧客忠誠的形成因素，是非常迫切且值得探討的。 　　在追求顧客滿意與顧客忠誠之間，滿意度或許是達到忠誠度的必要條件，但並非充分條件，可能還有其他因素會直接影響顧客忠誠。換句話說，提升顧客滿意，進而使得他們在態度與行為上對廠商忠誠，勢必還有一些其他的因素，是廠商必須深入瞭解且努力的目標。本研究以交易成本理論為主，透過以大型百貨／購物中心消費者為假設驗證對象，希望能夠深入探討影響顧客滿意與忠誠的形成因素。 　　根據實證結果發現，對百貨／購物中心的消費者來說，廠商所提供的產品、服務，以及消費者對該廠商的信任度都會影響消費者的整體滿意度；而整體滿意度、信任度，以及消費者與該廠商所建立的專屬資產會影響消費者在態度上的忠誠；此外，本研究實證結果也說明，除了態度忠誠外，與消費者建立相當的專屬資產，也可以使消費者在行為上忠誠該廠商。 　　最後，由上述實證結果，以交易成本理論為基礎，提供給百貨／購物中心業者關於如何創造顧客滿意度與忠誠度的建議。

近年來電子商店已成為一種新興的零售通路，在美國有人預估未來幾年內，其市場規模將佔美國零售市場的6~8%(Rosen & Howard,2000)。這種，伴隨著Internet發展而快速成長的電子商務，逐漸的改變了人類的生活習慣，也創造了新的商業行為以及經濟模式，並成為近年來企業經營的熱門話題。 　　買賣雙方關係管理一直是企業經營之成功關鍵因素，忠誠的顧客可說是企業獲利的直接來源，多數學者認為行銷學的焦點已由過去傳統交易行銷轉移到今日注重建立並維持與顧客關係的關係行銷，這種被視為行銷新典範的關係行銷，其主要目的在提昇顧客的忠誠度及滿意度，建立良好的顧客凝聚力。 　　本文旨在精緻化Crosby, et al.(1990)所提實體環境之關係品質模式，並在原模式中納入「網路安全性」、「產品失驗(disconfirmation)」、「資產專屬性」等外生變數。企圖由交易成本(Williamson,1975)、關係品質(Crosby, et al.,1990)及科技接受模式(Davis,1989)觀點，來解釋及預測Internet消費者對電子商店關係品質（滿意度、信任）及忠誠度的心理歷程，進而建立具有理論基礎的電子商店關係品質之因果模式。 　　本研究架構包括前因變數（e.g.產品／服務品質、互動強度、網路安全性、產品失驗、資產專屬性）、中介變數（滿意度及信任）、結果變數（e.g.顧客忠誠度、未來互動）三層徑路關係。本理論架構廣納科技面（網路安全、人機介面易用性）、策略面（資產專屬性）、行銷面（互動強度）、產品面（產品失驗）、心理面（網路實用性、隱私權、信任、滿意度）等5大類影響關係品質及忠誠度之因素。 　　本研究同時採用定性及定量方法，來交互驗証結果。 　　定量部份，採隨機問卷抽樣台灣、香港、印度、大陸、美國共3231名Internet使用者的消費行為。分探索性及驗証性兩階段資料分析，前者以效度及信度來篩選量表題目，後者使用LISREL統計工具進行電子商店關係品質之結構性分析，以找出Internet關係品質（滿意度、信任）的前因及後果（e.g.顧客忠誠度、未來互動意願）。定量分析結果發現：(1)本研究B2C電子商店之關係品質模式獲得支持；(2)加強電子商店網站實用性、產品失驗、互動強度，及網路安全性，可提升關係品質；(3)網路安全防範仍是台灣電子商務發展的一項重要工作；(4)電子商店的服務品質、資產專屬性及關係滿意度，可提高顧客忠誠度以及商家的獲利；(5)關係品質的提升，可建立忠誠顧客，強化雙方未來互動。 　　定性分析方面，本研究訪談國內28家網路券商主管，輔以次級資料（網商內容分析、期刊雜誌、證交所網站等）搜集佐證，結果發現：網站服務品質愈佳、網站交易安全性及互動性愈高，不但可有效提升顧客的信任及滿意度（關係品質），且顧客忠誠也愈高。因此加強網站互動機制、網頁內容的客製化、優惠商品（手續費折扣）、及網站資產專屬性（知識專屬性、時間專屬性），都是券商套牢顧客的好方法。根據研究結果，本研究得到結論如下：(1)網路下單具有多項優勢，在台灣證券市場相當具有發展潛力。(2)網路證券由價格競爭走向商品／服務品質導向。(3)證券商品／服務走向多元化及國際化，朝網路金融服務中心發展。(4)網路券商在客製化服務方面較傳統券商可提供更佳服務。(5)網站加強核心資源的創新及累積，建立難以模仿的資產專屬性，提升顧客忠誠度。(6)網際網路是關係行銷的利器。(7)安全仍是網路證券業發展的障礙因素。 / Recently, The Electronic Store has become an up-and-coming retail channel. In America, some people estimate its market scale will hold six to eight percent of the American retail market in the oncoming years. Such kind of Electronic Commerce that increased rapidly by accompanying the development of Internet has gradually changed human living habits. In addition, Electronic Commerce has created a new commercial behavior and a new economic model. Furthermore, it has become one of the most popular issues in enterprises lately. 　　The relational management between buyers and sellers is always the key point for enterprises to run a business successfully. Loyal customers have affinitive connections for them to gain profits as well. Most of the scholars mention that the focal point on marketing has transferred from the traditional transaction in the past to relationship marketing that stresses on constructing and maintaining the good enterprise-customer relationship nowadays. The main purpose of relationship marketing regarding as novel mode for selling is to increase customer loyalties and satisfactions, and also to promote fine customer concentrations 　　For this content, the keynote is to refine the relationship quality model of physical environment, and adopt extraneous variable of net security, product disconfirmation, asset specificity that are from the original model. Additionally, we attempt to use concepts of Transaction Cost (Williamson, 1975), Relationship Quality (Crosby, et al., 1990), and TRA (Theory of Reasoned Action) (Davis, 1989) to explain and predict Internet customers'' psychological process for satisfaction, trust, and loyalty in Relationship Quality of Electronic Store, and then, to build up cause and effect pattern of Relationship Quality of Electronic Store that is provided with theoretical basis. 　　The research structure consists of three-path relations. It is including (1) Ancestor Variables (ex. products, services qualities, contact intensities, Internet securities, product disconfirmations, and asset specificities) and (2) Intervening Variables (such as satisfactions and trusts), and (3) Consequent Variables, (ex. customer loyalties, and future interactions). Meanwhile, the width of this theory focuses on six main reasons of influencing the Relationship Quality and customer loyalty, such as technologies (Internet securities, user interfaces, and eases of uses), strategies (asset specificities), marketings (contact intensities), products (product disconfirmations), psychologies (Internet usefulnesses, privacies, trusts, and satisfactions), and domestic cultures. 　　According to this research, it simultaneously adopts two ways of the Qualitative Analysis and Quantitative Analysis to verify its result. 　　For Quantitative Analysis, it takes randomly survey samples which amounts to 3,231 consumers from Taiwan, Hong Kong, India, China, and America to know the psychographics of internet users. In this part, it''s divided into two steps in information analysis. One is the Explorative, and the other one is the Confirmatory. The former one adopts validity and reliability to shift scale item; the later one uses statistic tools, called" LISREL" to carry out structural analysis in the Relationship Quality Model of Electronic Store, and confirms to find out the cause and effect (Customer loyalty and further interaction) of the Relationship Quality (Satisfaction and trust). Through the result of Quantitative Analysis, we can find out: 1) The research, called "B2C Electronic Store" the Relationship Quality Model is able to obtain the support; 2) When strengthening Electronic Store''s internet usefulness, product disconfirmation, contact intensity, and internet security, it can promote the Relationship Quality well; 3) For the development of Electronic Commerce in Taiwan, the internet security precaution still takes as a serious problem to solve; 4) Stressing on Electronic Store''s service quality, asset specificity and relationship satisfaction can increase customer loyalty and enterprise''s profit; 5) Increasing Relationship Quality can posses loyal customer, and further enhance bilateral future interaction. 　　For the Qualitative Analysis, we interview 28 on-line broker firms in Taiwan, and collect the secondary information (web content of online-broker analysis, periodical magazine, and stock exchange website), as a result, we find out that the better the website''s service quality, the greater transition security and interaction. For this research, it can not only effectively increase the customer trust and satisfaction (the relationship quality), but also build up the high customer loyalty. Hence, it is a good way for brokers to underpin the amounts of customers by uplifting the website interactive mechanism, customized website contents, off-price merchandize (fee discounts), website asset specificities (knowledge and time specificity). Base on the result in this research, we conclude that: (1) An order from the website has varieties of advantages, so it''s equipped the capability of development in Taiwan stock market; (2) Website bond has moved toward merchandize or service quality instead of price competition; (3) Bond merchandize and service has become diversified and global pattern, and it faces toward the Service Center of Online-banking form; (4) Due to the customized service, current online-broker can provide better service than traditional one; (5) For the invention of strengthening core resource, it can have their own asset specificity that is hard to imitate, and promote customer loyalty; (6) Internet is a good toll for the Relationship Marketing; (7) Security is still the main obstacle for the internet stock market development.

近年來，環境汙染、能源危機等議題，使世界各國莫不開始重視環境永續經營之課題。目前被認為具發展潛力之替代能源包括太陽能、風力、地熱、水力、生質能等，其中，由於太陽能為取之不盡、用之不竭的循環再生能源，具無汙染、發展歷史悠久、取得來源穩定、發電成本逐年下降等優勢，因此，各國政府皆致力於太陽能光電產業之發展與推動。 根據統計，太陽能光電產業產品製造重心在2008年金融風暴後，快速往亞洲地區移動，產量增加最快的地區為中國和臺灣，兩岸因各自不同的地理環境、發展條件、政府政策等因素，促使相關產品在全球市場佔有率持續增加。2009 年全球太陽能電池產量為9.34GW，其中，中國與台灣佔全球總產量的49%（中國38%、台灣11%），可見兩岸同時共享全球太陽能光電市場，亦共同競爭全球再生能源產業版圖。 本研究由廠商角度出發，針對兩岸太陽能光電產業競爭與合作策略進行多面向分析研究。首先透過Porter (1980, 1990)五力分析與鑽石模型，對兩岸太陽能光電產業進行探討，並以廠商層次之資源基礎與交易成本等理論，瞭解個案廠商的交易成本與交易價值，同時探討國家和產業因素是否在廠商合作或不合作決策間形成調節效果。本研究發現，面對中國廠商，不同價值鏈階段的台灣廠商需選擇不同的競爭或合作策略，垂直整合並非台灣太陽能光電廠商首選之發展策略。同時，基於資源與能力的互補性可發現，兩岸同價值鏈階段廠商呈相互競爭狀態，廠商合作動機低，而兩岸不同價值鏈階段廠商的合作動機則高。在合作方式方面，則因台灣廠商的目的性差異，主要分作長短期契約和合資兩種方式。此外，本研究亦發現國家條件，如生產要素互補性與政府政策，以及產業發展現況將帶動兩岸廠商建立合作關係的可能性。 / Due to increasingly environmental issues such as pollution or energy crisis, people begin to regard environmental sustainability as an important topic in recent years. There are several kinds of potential substitute energy, including solar, wind, geothermal, water power, biomass energy, etc. Solar energy is one of important substitute energies because of its pollution-free characteristics, stability and decreasing cost trend. Therefore, the governments are committed to develop and promote the solar photovoltaic industry. According to statistics, the production area of photovoltaic products has been moved quickly from Europe to Asia after the financial crisis in 2008. The two of the fastest growing areas are China and Taiwan. Due to geographical environment, development conditions, government policies and other industrial factors, photovoltaic products from China and Taiwan continue to increase in the global market share. For instance, China and Taiwan accounted for 49% (or 93.4GW) of the worldwide solar cell production (38% in China, 11% in Taiwan) in 2009. It is obvious that China and Taiwan are competing the global photovoltaic market share. Based on five forces model, diamond model, transaction cost theory and resource-based view, this study provides a multi-strategic analysis of co-opetition in the cross-strait photovoltaic industry. By collecting secondary data and conducing case study, I complete a serious of systematic analysis and results with the grounded theory approach.

本篇論文擴充Ang et al. (2007)之基本架構,分別建構台灣各式月資料與季資料的物價指數預測模型,並進行預測以及實證分析。我們用以衡量通貨膨脹率的指標為 CPI 年增率與核心CPI 年增率。我們比較貨幣模型、成本加成模型、6 種不同設定的菲力浦曲線模型、3 種期限結構模型、隨機漫步模型、 AO 模型、ARIMA 模型、VAR 模型、主計處(DGBAS)、中經院(CIER) 及台經院(TIER) 之預測。藉由此研究,我們可以完整評估出文獻上常用之各式月資料及季資料預測模型的優劣。 我們實證結果顯示,在月資料預測模型樣本外預測績效表現方面, ARIMA 模 型對 2 種通貨膨脹率指標的樣本外預測能力表現最好。至於季資料預測模型樣本外預測績效表現, ARIMA 模型對未來核心 CPI 年增率的樣本外預測能力表現最好; 然而,對於 CPI 年增率為預測目標的預測模型則不存在最佳的模型。此外,實證分析中我們也發現本研究所建構的模型預測表現仍遜於主計處的預測,但部份模型的樣本外預測能力表現則比中經院與台經院的預測為佳。 / This paper compares the forecasting performance of inflation in Taiwan. We conduct various inflation forecasting methods (models) for two inflation measures(CPI growth rate and core-CPI growth rate) by using monthly and quarterly data. Besides the models of Ang et al. (2007), we also consider some macroeconomic models for comparison. We compare some Monetary models, Mark-up models, six variants of Phillips curve models, three variants of term structure models, a Random walk model, an AO model, an ARIMA model, and a VAR model. We also compare the forecast ability of these model with three different survey forecasts (the DGBAS, CIER, and TIER surveys). We summarized our findings as follows. The best monthly forecasting model for both inflation measures is ARIMA model. For quarterly core-CPI inflation, ARIMA model is also the best model; however, when comparing the quarterly forecasts for CPI inflation, there does not exist the best one. Besides, we also found that the DGBAS survey outperforms all of our forecasting methods/models, but some of our forecasting models are better than the CIER and TIER surveys in terms of MAE.

Haitz定律是專家根據多年的觀察發現，LED每十年它的流明成本會降至原來的十分之一，但是亮度會提升二十倍。它被視為LED產業的摩爾定律。而環保節能議題，讓高效率、節能與無毒的LED產品成為各方的寵兒，更是各國政府重點扶持的明星產業之一。產業競爭程度亦隨著快速上升，在面對千家爭鳴競爭日益激烈的產業環境下，先行者累積許多資源與能力，或可形成進入障礙。但是，在專業分工、資源與能力可替代或是複製的情況下，有些資源便不再獨特與唯一。甚至，隨著產業的快速進步，先行者所擁有的資源與能力，如果沒有跟上時代的腳步，不僅無法成為企業組織的能耐，相反的，可能成為企業的包袱。 A企業，一個產業先行者，面臨產業成長的絕佳機會，也同時要接受來自各方的競爭與挑戰，包含潛在進入者、原有產業競爭者、上游供應商、下游顧客與替代品等之競爭。不同環境結合企業既有之資源與能力，如何讓企業勝出的策略決策更形重要。本研究針對A企業在不同時期，所面臨不同環境，依據它自有之資源與能力，與其所採取之策略進行對比分析，最後從績效來檢視該時期之競爭策略。 本研究從產業競爭對手中，挑選出X企業，是一家與不同創新模式之後進者，以及Y企業，是規模相當的先行者，來進行分析比較，期待對A企業的競爭策略能有知彼知己之效果。在研究中發現，創新應用為LED產業成長的不二法門，企業唯有善用自我的資源與能力，結合市場方可勝出。 / Haitz's law is an observation over many years in LED, which states that, in every decade, the cost per lumen (unit of useful light emitted) falls by a factor of 10 and the amount of light generated per LED package increases by a factor of 20. This is referred as Moore's law in LED industry. Moreover, environmental protection and energy saving have become global issues. The advantages of LED products, such as power saving, high efficiency and non-toxic, have made LED industry patronage by governments and welcome worldwide. Governments in many developed countries even treat LED industry as one of star industries. However, the competition in this industry has increased rapidly. Facing hundreds of competitors, early entrants have accumulated many resources and capabilities, which also create entry barriers for others. Under the circumstances that professional services, resources and abilities could be substituted and duplicated, some of pioneer’s advantages are no longer unique and advanced. Even worse, because of the quick pace of this industry, the resources and abilities of one pioneer could even become heavy burden, if the pioneer does not catch up the evolution of the industry. Company A, a pioneer in this field, is enjoying the opportunity of industry growth but, at the same time, it is facing competitions and challenges from different areas, including potential entrants, existing competitors, suppliers, customers and substitutes. It is getting more important to have correct strategic directions to win under different circumstances by consolidating the firm’s resources and capabilities. This research engages in comparative analysis to examine the strategies that this company has taken during different periods of its development cycle and different environments.

隨著我國壽險業資產比率快速增加，投資績效不但影響眾多保戶的權益，更影響整體經濟之安定，但面臨現今全球金融和經濟環境劇烈動盪，加上壽險同業間激烈競爭的情況，我國壽險公司如何訂定投資策略做好資產配置，對壽險公司的營運健全而言相當重要。現行保險法第一百四十六條限制壽險公司的投資上限，但法令限制對壽險公司資產配置的影響為何，本研究將透過Markowitz的平均數－變異數投資組合模式對我國整體壽險業及國泰人壽、南山人壽、新光人壽及富邦人壽探討之；並以夏普指數、崔納指數及詹森指數，評估上述四家壽險公司之資金運用績效；另藉由分析壽險業之資金成本是否低於實際投資率，以達成研究壽險業長期資產配置之穩健度。 本研究主要結論如下：1.運用Markowitz 投資組合模型所推導出的效率前緣，以最大Sharpe Measure評估，不受法令限制下所建立之最佳投資組合，較有受法令限制下所建立之最佳投資組合的期望報酬率高，且分散風險的效果較佳。2.整體壽險業及前四大壽險公司之實際投資報酬率皆低於其實際投資組合之期望報酬，顯示壽險業於資金運用的靈活度及績效性有改善的空間。3.以績效評估指標求出前四大壽險公司的資金運用績效，發現新光人壽在此三項評估指標皆位居最後；國泰人壽在評估中皆名列前茅。4.新光人壽的平均實際報酬率低於平均資金成本，應控管好資金成本並加強投資組合之績效；富邦人壽平均實際報酬率高過平均資金成本最多，顯示富邦人壽在資金成本控管及投資績效有良好之表現。整體壽險業的實際報酬率亦高於平均資金成本，顯示我國壽險業於營運狀況正常。 / With the life insurance companies’ assets ratio rapidly increasing, the investment performances affect not only the right of a number of policy holders, but also affect the economic stability. However, facing the dynamic global financial and economic environment and the keen competition in the domestic life insurance industry, the life insurance companies need to adopt the proper investment strategy. Law of Insurance 146th p restricts the investment upper limit of the life insurance company. This research will use Markowitz MV model to discuss the influence of this investment restriction on life insurance companies’ asset allocation by the samples of Life industry, Cathay Life Insurance, Nan Shan Life Insurance, Shin Kong Life Insurance, and Fubon Life Insurance, and evaluate the performances of these four life insurance companies by Sharpe ratio, Treynor ratio, and Jensen’s measure. This research also analyze the cost of capital and real rate of return of these companies to examine the stability of life insurance industry’s long term asset allocation. The conclusions of this research are as follows: 1.Evaluated by the Markowitz efficient frontier and the Sharpe measure, there is the higher expected rate of return and better diversification with no investment restriction. 2.The actual rates of return of the life insurance industry and the above four life insurance companies are below the expected rates of returns of their portfolio evaluated be the Sharpe measure, which means the life insurance industry need to prove their capital allocation. 3. Comparing the performance of the life insurance companies by the performance indicator, we find the then Shin Kong Life Insurance is the last, while Cathay Life Insurance has a good score. 4. We also find the real rate of return of Shin Kong Life Insurance is lower than its cost of capital, which means Shin Kong Life Insurance need to adjust its cost of capital and the investment performance. Meanwhile, Fubon Life Insurance is the excellent in controlling the cost of capital and investment. The real rate of return of the Life insurance industry is higher than its cost of capital, and that shows the Life insurance industry has normal operation.