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361	La détection des retournements du marché actions américain / Detecting the reversals of the American stock market Zeboulon, Arnaud 08 October 2015 (has links) Le but de cette thèse est de construire un modèle de détection des changements de phase -passages de marché haussier à baissier et vice versa - du marché des actions américaines cotées, en utilisant un nombre relativement important de variables à la fois fondamentales (macroéconomiques et microéconomiques) et issues de l’analyse technique.Le modèle statistique retenu est la régression logistique statique, avec un retard pour les variables explicatives allant de zéro à trois mois. Les huit variables les plus significatives parmi vingt candidatesont été sélectionnées à partir des données mensuelles du S&P500 sur la période 1963-2003. Le modèle obtenu a été testé sur 2004-2013 et sa performance a été supérieure à celles de la stratégie Buy & Holdet d’un modèle univarié utilisant la variable ayant le plus fort pouvoir de détection - ce dernier modèle ayant fait l’objet d’une étude dans la littérature.Il a également été montré que des variables non encore considérées dans la littérature - la moyenne mobile sur les six derniers mois des créations nettes d’emplois non-agricoles, la base monétaire et le Composite Leading Indicator de l’OCDE - ont un pouvoir de détection significatif pour notre problématique. D'autre part, la variable binaire indiquant la position du S&P500 par rapport à sa moyenne mobile des dix derniers mois - variable de type analyse technique - a un pouvoir prédictif beaucoup plus élevé que les variables fondamentales étudiées. Enfin, les deux autres variables les plus statistiquement significatives sont macroéconomiques : l'écart entre les taux à dix ans des T-bonds et à trois mois des T-bills et la moyenne mobile des créations d’emplois non-agricoles. / The goal of this thesis is to build a model capable of detecting the reversals - shift from bull market to bear market or vice versa - of the American stock market, by using a relatively large number of explanatory variables, both of fundamental (macroeconomic and microeconomic) and of ‘technical analysis’ types.The statistical model used is static logistic regression, with lags for the independent variables ranging from zero to three months. Starting with twenty variables, the eight most significant ones have been selected on a training set consisting of monthly data of the S&P500 between 1963 and 2003. There sulting model has been tested over the 2004-2013 period and its performance was better than those of a buy & hold strategy and of a univariate model based on the variable with the highest predictive power – the latter model being the focus of a paper in the current literature. Another contribution of the thesis is that some variables not yet studied in the literature – the six month moving average of net non-farm job creations, the monetary base and the OECD Composite Leading Indicator – are statistically significant for our problem. Moreover, the predictive power of the binary variable indicating whether the S&P500 is above or below its ten-month moving average – a technical analysis variable – is much higher than that of the fundamental variables which have been considered. Finally, the two other most significant variables are macroeconomic ones: the spread between the ten-year T-bond and three-month T-bill rates and the moving average of non-farm jobs creations. Prévisibilité des marchés actions Retournements des marchés actions Marchés haussiers et baissiers Gestion de portefeuille Allocation d'actifs Timing du marché Régression logistique Sélection de variables Analyse technique Effet momentum Stock market predictability Stock market reversals Bull and bear markets Portfolio management Asset allocation Market timing Logistic regression Variable selection Technical analysis Monumentum effect
362	L’exploitation de la faune par les Iroquoiens : l’alimentation carnée des habitants du site McDonald (BgFo-18) Chapdelaine, Maude 12 1900 (has links) This thesis explores patterns of faunal exploitation habits at the McDonald site, in the Saint-Anicet area during the Late Woodland period. The main goal is to determine the importance of wild game in the Iroquoian economical system which is based on the balance of fishing, hunting and horticulture. The result of the faunal analysis shows that White-Tailed Deer, North American Black Bear and North American Beaver are the most important taxa contributing to the subsistence economy of the inhabitants of the site. This was determined by standard zooarchaeological methods, including calculation of the number of identified specimens (NISP), the minimum number of individuals (MNI), meat weight (MW) and ethnohistorical data. This thesis also discusses the spatial distribution of animal skeletal remains, comparing meat consumption patterns within each family unity inside the longhouses and within and between each longhouse. This comparison shows that faunal remains are mostly located in the central alignment of longhouses and are homogeneously distributed. The taxa distributed within the longhouses suggest relatively equalitarian access to animal resources. Analysis of the bone concentrations shows a collaborative tendency between family units within the community. Furthermore, the faunal assemblage tends to show an annual occupation of the site. Sedentary occupation of the site is also supported by ceramic analysis and cultigen analysis. Finally, we compare the mammal NISP and MNI of the McDonald's site with seven other contemporaneous archaeological sites from the region. This comparison shows that mammalian resources declined in importance in the Iroquoian diet between the beginning of the 14th century and the first part of the 16th century, probably due to the adoption of horticulture. / Ce mémoire porte sur l'exploitation de la faune par les habitants du site McDonald de la région de Saint-Anicet. L'objectif principal est de caractériser la place des mammifères dans l’économie mixte des Iroquoiens du Saint-Laurent à un moment où l’horticulture gagne en popularité. L’étude de l’assemblage faunique a permis de déterminer que le cerf de Virginie, l’ours noir et le castor du Canada sont les principaux taxons mammaliens qui contribuent de façon économique, technologique et symbolique à l’économie de subsistance des habitants du site McDonald. Cette étude a été menée en intégrant des statistiques descriptives propres à la zooarchéologie telles que le nombre de restes déterminés (NRD), le nombre minimal d’individus (NMI) et le poids de viande (PV) avec des sources d’informations connexes telles que des documents ethnohistoriques, des guides fauniques et des statistiques gouvernementales. Ce travail utilise également l’analyse de la distribution spatiale des restes squelettiques qui montre une répartition des matières dures animales majoritairement alignée dans l’axe central des maisons-longues. La distribution spatiale des taxons montre quant à elle une homogénéité dans la dispersion des animaux entre les maisons-longues, ainsi qu’une répartition relativement égalitaire des ressources carnées entre les unités familiales. L’analyse des concentrations révèle même un esprit de collaboration entre les unités familiales contiguës. De plus, le spectre de faune tend à démontrer une occupation annuelle du site, ce qui corrobore l’analyse céramique et l’analyse des cultigènes. Finalement, en comparant le NRD et le NMI mammalien du site McDonald avec sept autres sites contemporains, l’analyse faunique démontre que les ressources mammaliennes sont en décroissance dans l’alimentation des Iroquoiens entre le début du 14e siècle et la première moitié du 16e siècle, période qui correspond justement à l’essor de l’horticulture (maïs, haricot, courge) au sein de la diète iroquoienne, ce qui caractérise l’économie mixte de la période du Sylvicole supérieur. Zooarchéologie Analyse faunique Sylvicole supérieur Iroquoiens du Saint-Laurent Saint-Anicet site McDonald Mammalofaune Cerf de Virginie Ours noir Castor du Canada Zooarchaeology Faunal analysis Late Woodland St. Lawrence Iroquoians Mammalofauna White-Tailed Deer North American Black Bear North American Beaver
363	Evaluating attitudes towards large carnivores within the Great Bear Rainforest Leveridge, Max Carter 02 May 2019 (has links) No description available. Conservation Environmental Science Environmental Studies Environmental Management Geographic Information Science Social Research Sociology Wildlife Conservation Wildlife Management Great Bear Rainforest Canada carnivores New Ecological Paradigm ecological attitudes environmental attitudes Social Ecological Relational Values carnivore attitudes conservation management conservation policy conservation environmental science
364	Active versus passive portfolio management : A study of risk-adjusted return and market fluctuations on short term and long term Duveskog, Ida, Halldén, Jesper January 2024 (has links) Today fund matching is a natural part of Swedes finance and is a popular form of savings that includes a large number of investors in the Swedish fund market. This in turn generates an increased interest in how portfolio managers should locate and acquire knowledge in portfolio selection. This gives a greater interest in how different investment strategies can be affected and generate an investors wealth to an increased level within the stock market, which gives an increased focus to be able to generate as high risk-adjusted return as possible. The study partly presents traditional theory and background on modern portfolio theory and the efficient market hypothesis. Empirical studies also present within the financial market that demonstrate the differences of opinion between how actively versus passively managed funds have performed and which investment strategy is most beneficial for investment. The purpose of the study is to compare realized return on active versus passive funds during long term, short term and specific time periods that had a lot of economic fluctuations, like bear markets. Within the study 10 actively managed funds and two index measures are selected to be studied and compared based on their respective performance, both within its rise and fall in the Swedish fund market. The performance measures will then be applied to be able to produce the results of the study and to be able to answer whether the active fund’s have any statistically significant over- and underperformance. After conducting single index models and t-test on the 10 active funds, the result of the study shows that despite using two benchmarks index, ten different active funds, long time period, short time period or specific time periods defined by market imbalance , we still resulted in many P-values that was not statistically significant. Active funds failed to overperform against passive funds, but passive funds also failed to outperform our selection of active funds. Active funds Passive funds Fund managers Risk-adjusted return Swedish Fund Market Index Benchmark OMXSGI OMXS30GI investment strategies Portfolio allocation diversification volatility NAV-course Bull and Bear market Beta systematic and unsystematic risk Small- and medium sized companies Large companies Market fluctuations Single index model linear regression T-test standard deviation risk level portfolio selection Alpha R-adjusted P-values. Business Administration Företagsekonomi
365	Tse Keh Nay-European Relations and Ethnicity: 1790s-2009 Sims, Daniel Unknown Date No description available. Tse Keh Nay Sekani Ethnicity History Tsay Keh Dene Ingenika Fort Grahame Fort Ware Kwadacha McLeod Lake Takla Lake Bear Lake Fort Connelly Fort Nelson Finlay Forks Adrien Gabriel Morice Alexander MacKenzie Simon Fraser Daniel William Harmon Samuel Black Archibald McDonald John Stuart Treaty No. 8 McLeod Lake Adhesion BC Treaty Process Beaver Dunneza McKenna-McBride Royal Commission Indian Reserve Commission British Columbia Land Claims
366	Tse Keh Nay-European Relations and Ethnicity: 1790s-2009 Sims, Daniel 06 1900 (has links) This thesis examines Tse Keh Nay (Sekani) ethnic identity over three periods of Aboriginal-European relations: the fur trade period, the missionary period, and the treaty and reserve period. It examines the affects these three periods have had on the Tse Keh Nay as an ethnic group in four chapters, the first two dealing with the fur trade and missionary periods, and the last two with the treaty and reserve aspects of the treaty and reserve period. In it I argue that during the first two periods wider Tse Keh Nay ethnic identity was reinforced, while during the latter period local Tse Keh Nay identities were reinforced through government policies that dealt with Tse Keh Nay subgroups on a regional and localized basis. Despite this shift in emphasis, wider Tse Keh Nay ethnic identity has remained, proving that Tse Keh Nay ethnic identity is both situational and dynamic. / History Tse Keh Nay Sekani Ethnicity History Tsay Keh Dene Ingenika Fort Grahame Fort Ware Kwadacha McLeod Lake Takla Lake Bear Lake Fort Connelly Fort Nelson Finlay Forks Adrien Gabriel Morice Alexander MacKenzie Simon Fraser Daniel William Harmon Samuel Black Archibald McDonald John Stuart Treaty No. 8 McLeod Lake Adhesion BC Treaty Process Beaver Dunneza McKenna-McBride Royal Commission Indian Reserve Commission British Columbia Land Claims
367	A Multi-Factor Stock Market Model with Regime-Switches, Student's T Margins, and Copula Dependencies Berberovic, Adnan, Eriksson, Alexander January 2017 (has links) Investors constantly seek information that provides an edge over the market. One of the conventional methods is to find factors which can predict asset returns. In this study we improve the Fama and French Five-Factor model with Regime-Switches, student's t distributions and copula dependencies. We also add price momentum as a sixth factor and add a one-day lag to the factors. The Regime-Switches are obtained from a Hidden Markov Model with conditional Student's t distributions. For the return process we use factor data as input, Student's t distributed residuals, and Student's t copula dependencies. To fit the copulas, we develop a novel approach based on the Expectation-Maximisation algorithm. The results are promising as the quantiles for most of the portfolios show a good fit to the theoretical quantiles. Using a sophisticated Stochastic Programming model, we back-test the predictive power over a 26 year period out-of-sample. Furthermore we analyse the performance of different factors during different market regimes. finance statistics stock market stocks factor factors probability probability distribution students t distrbution students t copula markov chain hidden markov model regime switching stochastic programming optimisation optimization multi factor model arbitrage pricing theory return performance back test expectation maximisation expectation maximization multiple linear regression stochastic process primal-dual interior point qq-plot qq plot excess return market regimes bear market bull market market index index Probability Theory and Statistics Sannolikhetsteori och statistik
368	Dr. Eleine Mad Jacobsson, Madeleine January 2021 (has links) Dr. Eleine Mad är Madeleine Jacobsssons talesperson för dom vetenskapliga och paranormala upptäckter som uppstår i hennes världar. Hon beskriver innehåll, teknik och estetik utifrån ett kategoriseringssytem där konsten delas upp som olika typer av komponenter och därefter avkodas dessa allteftersom. För att förstå intuitionens inblandning i arbetsprocessen omförvandlas den till tre separata roller av en Sökare, Samlare och Myntare. Med rollerna försöker jag beskriva på vilka sätt som intuitionen är till gagn eller av förödelse för det konstnärliga arbetet. Sagan om M handlar om en grodlik karaktär, Delop, som lämnar sin hemplanet för att uppsöka andra världar. I sitt sökande hittar Delop ett folkslag vars syn och levnadssätt skiljer sig från hennes erfarenheter av “verkligheten” såsom hon lärt sig att överleva i den. / Dr. Eleine Mad is Madeleine Jacobsson's spokesperson for the scientific and paranormal discoveries that arise in her worlds. She describes content, tecniques and aesthetics based on a categorization system where art is divided into different types of components and then decoded as they go. To understand the intuition's involvement in the work process, it is transformed into three separate roles by a Seeker, Collector and a Myntare(In swedish language the one who is a "myntare" -is verbally declaring a concept or term). With these roles I try to describe in what ways intuition is beneficial or devastating to the artistic work. The story of M is about a frog-like character, Delop, who leaves the home planet to seek out other worlds. In her search, Delop finds a world whose views and lifestyles differ from her experiences of "reality" as she learned to survive in it. / <p>Recorded sound and image material of the presentation is available for private use.</p> mjjgkjacb longing desire pang aj worlds shark genital symbol female sexuality worlds content the tale of M Doctor M mad life artifact animals figures emotional states red existentialism epicenter dog mythology folk beer whistle closeness aversions seeker collector myntare stagnation hibernation intuition sausage soup majdalakdemlsmikopa Delop Cow Lice snake hare sheep ödel oktor threat antipathy empathy fear performance function allow belief clitoral heroes monsters pink components situation dual nature euphoria bic-pens reality violence desert sea AQB brain holistics social codes self fairy tale space blue horse hell gotland dizzying flourish anthropomorphic jewels death plaster spiders commit survive frog whale bear purpose communication wild fascination animal incomparable monster ugly disturbed perspective marauder green symbolism who suffer anger reverence gods recast transformation yellow pry entrance interest alternative insignificant rigid position of power as disease real added disgusting wake up doubt mourn pray images horror plants rock stop mjjgkjacb längtan åtrå pang aj världar haj världsallt könssymbol kvinnlig sexualitet världarnas innehåll sagan om M Doktor M mad livet artefakt djur figurer känslomässiga tillstånd röd existentialism epicentrum hund mytologi folköl vissla närhet aversioner sökare samlare myntare stagnation dvala intuition korvsoppa majdalakdemlsmikopa Delop Ko Löss orm hare får Ödel Oktor hot antipati empati rädsla föreställning funktion tillåta tro klitorala hjältar monster rosa världar komponenter situation dubbla natur eufori bic-pennor verkligheten våld öken hav A.Q.B hjärna holistisk sociala koder självet sagorymd blå häst helvete Gotland vimmelkantig florera antropomorf juveler döden plåsterspindlar vägvisare begå överleva groda val björn syfte kommunicering vild fascination djurisk makalös vidunder ful störd perspektiv marodör grön symbolism vem genomlida ilska vördnad gudar omstöpt sammandrabbningar transformation gul bända ingång intresserar alternativ oväsentlig stel maktposition som sjukdom verkligt tillsatt äcklig vakna tvivla sörja be urbilder skräck växter rock stopp Arts Konst

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